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Предиктивные технологии:как знания о нашем поведении меняют мир | Владимир Новосёлов | TEDxYakimanka


[music]

good afternoon

I will allow myself to move for a couple of minutes.

attention from the stage to the hall

here are a few facts about who is today

came to you today gathered under your

roof of the conference ted ex-akim ng

right now in the hall is 194

rights

of them 3 per cent are concerned about the choice and

purchase new new new car

33 percent of you are waiting at home for home

the animal is about thirty nine

percent here and in

different life situations on

predominantly rely on

material information making a decision

rationally mixes alternatives into

the whole is guided by logic and sooner

all give their preference to different

natural mathematical sciences

time as 42 percent here

present to a greater extent

expressed intuition is better perceived

bright artistic artistic

images and make decisions based on

emotions and are more likely to work

their activities are connected with some kind of

the humanities

the vast majority here

present

are advocates of camphor norms

behavior in society is well perceived

people who are wearing smart

have low voice low low

the timbre of the voice and a and not into the ambulance juice

meetings

that’s why I today 2 times life

put on a jacket where I know it and why I

he actually told about it

it is not known for certain to me

these facts were predicted

a special productive system for

what did I do this job

probably in order for you to like it

or maybe to pick up

in his story

exactly the style is precisely those words exactly

on those images and actual examples from

life in order to pass your filter

foreign to the best of luck

convey the meaning of his

say to be clear to you

because only in this case the best

the purpose of the conference will be

reached you will gain some insights

any ideas I will manage to infect you

with some emotions and maybe this

the future will change the world for the better

But leave the lyrics aside as

it did this how this works

predicative analyst as already said

I develop products with

long

predicative analytics and their application

in various spheres of business

primitive analytics for 42 percent

audience, this word is probably not

very clear because every time

when it comes to

machine learning neural networks

large data

it looks like this for the solution

Classification problems we apply

distributed gradient algorithm

Booting on the systems of decision trees

which use regularization

value in sheets it optimizes

mean square error on the training

sample or logarithmic function

verifying the likelihood of the answer while solving

gradient descent or

Newton method for solving problems

classification of

what am I talking about for 42 percent

the audience

It is known that it is better to use some kind of

bright artistic images and not

use all give out all this

mathematical terminology

so I rely on this fact to build

his story a little differently as Hansel and

gates walking in a dark forest

leaving behind a trace of bread

crumbs

Each of us daily leaves

a digital footprint that forms

from the likes and reposts of the social network from

what we write and comment on from

purchases on Internet sites

and visits to some Internet sites from

favorite route routes from point a

to the point b photos in instagrama

calls in different be inside inside

shopping center and so on to continue

can be very long but I thought I thought that

meaning you understand the information or rather

data on our behavior is indeed

very much this data is unsystematic

discrepant discrepant can

be incomplete and sometimes not even

true but nevertheless, with the right

approach to their analysis

them we can extract from them like

some knowledge of a grain of knowledge for

in order to predict

inclinations for each of us

predict our desire and maybe

even our future sounds somewhat

frightening but let’s not sharpen

for this attention is already

a fact that happened to you, we were born in

the heyday of the era of development

and we were lucky

be active participants of this time

only from our decision from our

selection and

attention to the fact how and

to depend on where the vector will be directed

development and application of these technologies

will depend on our decision

what is the new ethic of digital digital

technologies will be formed in

further and what technology

technological social landscape

is formed in the near future in order

to better know what is on the

business is hidden behind these terrible

words and their realities

work with long-term technology

try the knife to swap places I

often say I share the terms data and

knowledge to the data

knowledge and knowledge in the context of

my story

this is a set of hypotheses applied to

for example, a hypothesis about what

music is my favorite

it would be very cool if I could

easily tell your tourist what

me in what kind of composition does not include

in every find of time when I want and

listen but it’s impossible because

music is very much and every day

new groups appear new

albums and in fact I myself am ill

I understand I do not understand what exactly

I get to like choosing the one

and this or that musical composition

much better about my inclinations

tell the very same digital footprint and

extracted from it

signs, say analysts or features

which are for example visits to

certain sites

with the playlist of my friends with whom

most actively communicate and have already arranged

evaluation of previously listened compositions

best predict which of the

tracks of new indie bands I’ll be tomorrow

to listen on the rehearsal in fact in order

so that the data transform knowledge

there are so many tools i

I’ll tell you about the simplest of them

logistic regression it is used to

around it is used almost everywhere such as

The simplest task of determining sex

a person with you is very easy to stick with

one glance but when imagine

site of the online store and you see that

someone has come to you for k and wants to buy

jeans

for a man to buy jeans with

more likely

You need to help him choose them and start

you need to take a cotton man or woman

in order to do this we can not

we can not know about him about it

ask directly, but we can

collect and what is the data on his

behavior to decompose them as a training

sample and if the date is an analyst who

is concerned with this issue was attentive

and successfully prepared those very signs

allocated here is a deferred finger then he

will see that the behavior of two different people

men and women would be very different in

space of these features and can

easy to describe

mathematical formula based on the method

linear discriminant of a phisher as in

the future knows only these signs

determine which class belongs to

this visitor is more difficult task

in the space of these signs seems

it is almost impossible to see any

dependence that what to do at the

this is one of the

advantages of the machine approach to analysis

data on protein

experts

in order to find dependencies somehow

mathematically describe in this example

You need to look at the situation under another

angle, you need to add some more

symptoms

this will allow us to turn the survey

review the set of training sample and

To see what really is between

they have a pattern on how they

in what they differ from each other and

dividing the day and between them will already be

in the plane that because we

consider the problem in three-dimensional

the space of attributes is even the best

an expert in his field can analyze

task no more than relying no more than

than 10 factors simultaneously and machines

approach to a machine approach like

analytics allows you to look at

problem under multiple angles

analyzing thousands of attributes simultaneously

this gives rise to very complex

mathematical division formulas

regularities in practice this

applies everywhere, for example, you

could hear about the system that

called palantir it stands worth on

arming special services and large

financial organizations united states

This system allows analyzing

some anomalies in people’s behavior

to allocate with a good degree of probability and

highlight the signs of an organized

crime of illegal banking

operations and even terrorism is this

the system is on guard quiet sleep

citizens of the United States more than the world loved

example from china you know messenger HIV

from which is essentially the price to

system of various functions and applications

allows us to solve a simple problem of choosing and

search for the right products from the most

optimal

Services of the purchase such as I

I go to some shopping center

I have hands holding a phone

past the boutique I can not and shake it

will be a signal about that for this boutique about

that I’m interested in some kind of

personalized offer to be

analyzing the very same space

signs my digital track will be able to

Determine what exactly interests me and

not only what exactly interests

but how is it better for me

it is conditionally wrapped up presenting

there is a discount or maybe some kind of

Based on which I

I will make a decision in favor of this store

it turns out that my search problem

will be solved faster and I will not be long

spend a lot of time choosing between

various boutiques and the store will receive

the ability to optimize

Optimize your profits so you do not

thought that the whole example is somewhere far away and in

russia I will tell the story of this life

the story of how I purchased the yacht on

in fact, I have been doing since childhood

surfing and yachting is a very expensive sight

sport of their shifts say that the yacht is

such a deepening in the water which is necessary

to fill up with money, of course

his bus to such a dream and seemed

I almost never have ever

I will not be able to buy any real

there’s a good sailing ship however I

discussed this with friends read articles

watched video reviews and secretly about it

dreamed and here one day in contact in a tape

I saw a post from a person

which was in no way connected with me

he was not my social connections

friend and he wrote about what he would give in

good hands

olympic yacht of the Olympic class volatile

Dutchman

in return for her to bring a little

in order and use as directed

naturally but immediately with the organization with

friends took this yacht directly

now it is being repaired and

this summer it will be launched on

water area of ​​the

the situation is ambiguous on the one hand

knowledge and prediction is good but

Invasion of my privacy zone is

there is a bad feeling of feet and that

follow me for myself i reply to

this question is so no one knowledge follows

just changing socially

technological landscape according to the

what tasks of our life do we want

optimize what routine processes

We make this choice ourselves and, in fact, ourselves

form here is just the very same that

she is the newest ethic of modern times

it turns out that thanks to

development of these technologies is more accurate

analyzed my data given my

behavior the more accurately they work

predictive systems

the more opportunities the more

opportunities appear personally from me

I free myself free time I can

more to travel getting a new one

information that really makes me

interest and do not worry about the fact that

somewhere, some kind of my purchases

would not be optimal or, in general, an example

can be given a lot

I recently started aikido and

Forever of the duo, Japanese martial arts have

I was sent to the analogy

to better convey your thoughts

the main principle of aikido is balance

between the soul

or intentions of the word-synonyms a and body

and

that is, the possibilities of interconnection and

balance of harmony with oneself and others

peace and come to the technology now

seek a balance between the intention

optimize business processes

to save people from unnecessary in

communication and somehow help

they are more likely to take certain

solution is obtained that principle

technology is such a

m. aki to our time if my

the story was useful for you, or

interesting to them can be originated by you

some new thoughts

then I managed to use

insights about this audience correctly and

it all went for the good of us

thank you very much

[applause]

”

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