Modern slavery: the size of the problem | Sir Bernard Silverman | TEDxWhitehall

thank you thank you I’m going to start

thank you thank you I’m going to start by talking about three cases in modern

by talking about three cases in modern

by talking about three cases in modern slavery so the first one is about four

slavery so the first one is about four

slavery so the first one is about four men from the Czech Republic who came to

men from the Czech Republic who came to

men from the Czech Republic who came to this country thinking they had work and

this country thinking they had work and

this country thinking they had work and when they got here they were met by

when they got here they were met by

when they got here they were met by someone and their documents passports

someone and their documents passports

someone and their documents passports were taken away

were taken away

were taken away they were taken somewhere to live in

they were taken somewhere to live in

they were taken somewhere to live in very squalid conditions and they were

very squalid conditions and they were

very squalid conditions and they were made to work in a factory and they had

made to work in a factory and they had

made to work in a factory and they had to hand over all their earnings to a

to hand over all their earnings to a

to hand over all their earnings to a gang master and when one of them

gang master and when one of them

gang master and when one of them objected and said well I can’t have my

objected and said well I can’t have my

objected and said well I can’t have my money he was chained to a radiator he

money he was chained to a radiator he

money he was chained to a radiator he was beaten and he was burnt with

was beaten and he was burnt with

was beaten and he was burnt with cigarettes and then there’s another case

cigarettes and then there’s another case

cigarettes and then there’s another case of a young lady called Maya British girl

of a young lady called Maya British girl

of a young lady called Maya British girl who from the ages of 12 to 19 was really

who from the ages of 12 to 19 was really

who from the ages of 12 to 19 was really very terribly exploited so they started

very terribly exploited so they started

very terribly exploited so they started off by grooming her getting her to sell

off by grooming her getting her to sell

off by grooming her getting her to sell drugs and then she worked up what was

drugs and then she worked up what was

drugs and then she worked up what was the supposed debt a large debt and so

the supposed debt a large debt and so

the supposed debt a large debt and so she was forced into prostitution sexual

she was forced into prostitution sexual

she was forced into prostitution sexual exploitation she had to service after 30

exploitation she had to service after 30

exploitation she had to service after 30 clients a day and even when she went

clients a day and even when she went

clients a day and even when she went away on a school trip with her school

away on a school trip with her school

away on a school trip with her school friends her abuses were where she was

friends her abuses were where she was

friends her abuses were where she was under such control that she they even

under such control that she they even

under such control that she they even trafficked her to people in the

trafficked her to people in the

trafficked her to people in the neighborhood the third case a Vietnamese

neighborhood the third case a Vietnamese

neighborhood the third case a Vietnamese boy called Hong whose family put

boy called Hong whose family put

boy called Hong whose family put together $30,000 to pay for him to be

together $30,000 to pay for him to be

together $30,000 to pay for him to be brought into this country illegally I’m

brought into this country illegally I’m

brought into this country illegally I’m sure when he got here he was forced to

sure when he got here he was forced to

sure when he got here he was forced to work in a cannabis farm cameras factory

work in a cannabis farm cameras factory

work in a cannabis farm cameras factory he was he escaped but then he was

he was he escaped but then he was

he was he escaped but then he was recaptured re trafficked and put into

recaptured re trafficked and put into

recaptured re trafficked and put into domestic and sexual abuse those are

domestic and sexual abuse those are

domestic and sexual abuse those are three cases but modern slavery touches

three cases but modern slavery touches

three cases but modern slavery touches all of us it’s all we come across we

all of us it’s all we come across we

all of us it’s all we come across we can’t come across it in our everyday

can’t come across it in our everyday

can’t come across it in our everyday lives in nail bars car washes block

lives in nail bars car washes block

lives in nail bars car washes block paving and of course in supply chains of

paving and of course in supply chains of

paving and of course in supply chains of goods and

goods and

goods and services that we buy so I was how did I

services that we buy so I was how did I

services that we buy so I was how did I get interested in this the home office

get interested in this the home office

get interested in this the home office asked me as part of launching a modern

asked me as part of launching a modern

asked me as part of launching a modern slavery strategy if I would try and

slavery strategy if I would try and

slavery strategy if I would try and figure out how many victims there are of

figure out how many victims there are of

figure out how many victims there are of modern slavery in this country there’s a

modern slavery in this country there’s a

modern slavery in this country there’s a thing called a national referral

thing called a national referral

thing called a national referral mechanism which is run by the National

mechanism which is run by the National

mechanism which is run by the National Crime Agency which collects reports from

Crime Agency which collects reports from

Crime Agency which collects reports from various sources of victims of modern

various sources of victims of modern

various sources of victims of modern slavery and in 2013 they thought there

slavery and in 2013 they thought there

slavery and in 2013 they thought there were two thousand seven hundred and

were two thousand seven hundred and

were two thousand seven hundred and forty four victims but modern slavery is

forty four victims but modern slavery is

forty four victims but modern slavery is a hidden crime people who are taken into

a hidden crime people who are taken into

a hidden crime people who are taken into this condition are afraid to tell anyone

this condition are afraid to tell anyone

this condition are afraid to tell anyone about it even if they escape they may

about it even if they escape they may

about it even if they escape they may not even be identified as victims by

not even be identified as victims by

not even be identified as victims by those who come across them and in some

those who come across them and in some

those who come across them and in some cases they may not even realize

cases they may not even realize

cases they may not even realize themselves that what they were in

themselves that what they were in

themselves that what they were in amounted to slavery people just like

amounted to slavery people just like

amounted to slavery people just like other crimes like domestic abuse are

other crimes like domestic abuse are

other crimes like domestic abuse are often ashamed and in some of the cases I

often ashamed and in some of the cases I

often ashamed and in some of the cases I talked about they may themselves have

talked about they may themselves have

talked about they may themselves have got into it because of doing something

got into it because of doing something

got into it because of doing something that they shouldn’t have done like the

that they shouldn’t have done like the

that they shouldn’t have done like the young man from Vietnam and the other

young man from Vietnam and the other

young man from Vietnam and the other reason of course we don’t have complete

reason of course we don’t have complete

reason of course we don’t have complete data is that if you put out a call to

data is that if you put out a call to

data is that if you put out a call to the police or whoever for data they

the police or whoever for data they

the police or whoever for data they don’t all answer it so the data is

don’t all answer it so the data is

don’t all answer it so the data is necessarily incomplete so there’s a

necessarily incomplete so there’s a

necessarily incomplete so there’s a whole slew of reasons why 2744 was not

whole slew of reasons why 2744 was not

whole slew of reasons why 2744 was not there number at all and why they were

there number at all and why they were

there number at all and why they were considerably more victims and that was

considerably more victims and that was

considerably more victims and that was where statistics came into the equation

where statistics came into the equation

where statistics came into the equation let’s think of an old hidden population

let’s think of an old hidden population

let’s think of an old hidden population problem suppose you want to discover how

problem suppose you want to discover how

problem suppose you want to discover how many fish there are in a pond so one

many fish there are in a pond so one

many fish there are in a pond so one method that was suggested a long time

method that was suggested a long time

method that was suggested a long time ago was this you go fishing and you

ago was this you go fishing and you

ago was this you go fishing and you catch say

catch say

catch say a hundred fish then you mark all those

a hundred fish then you mark all those

a hundred fish then you mark all those fish in some way and you throw them all

fish in some way and you throw them all

fish in some way and you throw them all back and you let them swim around for a

back and you let them swim around for a

back and you let them swim around for a week and then you come fishing again and

week and then you come fishing again and

week and then you come fishing again and you catch another hundred and you

you catch another hundred and you

you catch another hundred and you discover that 20 of the fish that you

discover that 20 of the fish that you

discover that 20 of the fish that you caught the second time we’re in the

caught the second time we’re in the

caught the second time we’re in the original cap so you had a hundred

original cap so you had a hundred

original cap so you had a hundred originally you you let them all go you

originally you you let them all go you

originally you you let them all go you you catch another hundred and twenty is

you catch another hundred and twenty is

you catch another hundred and twenty is the overlap well many of you will have

the overlap well many of you will have

the overlap well many of you will have figured out that means that the total in

figured out that means that the total in

figured out that means that the total in the pond is about five hundred either

the pond is about five hundred either

the pond is about five hundred either you’re mathematicians or you’ve done

you’re mathematicians or you’ve done

you’re mathematicians or you’ve done intuitively so that’s that’s where it

intuitively so that’s that’s where it

intuitively so that’s that’s where it comes to and that’s a method it’s a very

comes to and that’s a method it’s a very

comes to and that’s a method it’s a very old method called mark recapture or

old method called mark recapture or

old method called mark recapture or capture recapture in the case of modern

capture recapture in the case of modern

capture recapture in the case of modern slavery and the National Crime Agency

slavery and the National Crime Agency

slavery and the National Crime Agency the way they get the data is they get

the way they get the data is they get

the way they get the data is they get lists of victims from different sources

lists of victims from different sources

lists of victims from different sources they get victims from say the police

they get victims from say the police

they get victims from say the police they get victims from government

they get victims from government

they get victims from government organizations like the Border Agency

organizations like the Border Agency

organizations like the Border Agency border force they get victims from

border force they get victims from

border force they get victims from charities like the Salvation Army and

charities like the Salvation Army and

charities like the Salvation Army and Barnardo’s they get victims from the

Barnardo’s they get victims from the

Barnardo’s they get victims from the general public and they get big in some

general public and they get big in some

general public and they get big in some local authorities so that’s five

local authorities so that’s five

local authorities so that’s five different lists if you like of victims

different lists if you like of victims

different lists if you like of victims and then what you can do is you can you

and then what you can do is you can you

and then what you can do is you can you could think of those as fishing in the

could think of those as fishing in the

could think of those as fishing in the pond five times and you can look at all

pond five times and you can look at all

pond five times and you can look at all the possible overlaps between those

the possible overlaps between those

the possible overlaps between those different lists and you can then fit a

different lists and you can then fit a

different lists and you can then fit a mathematical model to it and from that

mathematical model to it and from that

mathematical model to it and from that estimate what’s called the dark figure

estimate what’s called the dark figure

estimate what’s called the dark figure which is the number of cases that don’t

which is the number of cases that don’t

which is the number of cases that don’t appear on any lists at all well in order

appear on any lists at all well in order

appear on any lists at all well in order to get the numbers right I have to read

to get the numbers right I have to read

to get the numbers right I have to read them out so it turns out that for

them out so it turns out that for

them out so it turns out that for example on the government organizations

example on the government organizations

example on the government organizations list there are 695 cases that don’t

list there are 695 cases that don’t

list there are 695 cases that don’t appear on any other lists at all if you

appear on any other lists at all if you

appear on any other lists at all if you take the police force and the general

take the police force and the general

take the police force and the general public lists the overlap between those

public lists the overlap between those

public lists the overlap between those contains the eleven cases that aren’t on

contains the eleven cases that aren’t on

contains the eleven cases that aren’t on any of the other lists and there’s

any of the other lists and there’s

any of the other lists and there’s actually one case which is on four of

actually one case which is on four of

actually one case which is on four of the lists local authorities

the lists local authorities

the lists local authorities non-government

non-government

non-government police force and government

police force and government

police force and government organizations but not on the general

organizations but not on the general

organizations but not on the general public lists and so on there are

public lists and so on there are

public lists and so on there are actually lot there are 31 different

actually lot there are 31 different

actually lot there are 31 different combinations of lists that you can

combinations of lists that you can

combinations of lists that you can observe and so you get 31 different

observe and so you get 31 different

observe and so you get 31 different totals in each of the possible

totals in each of the possible

totals in each of the possible combinations and from those you can

combinations and from those you can

combinations and from those you can estimate a 30 second one which is the

estimate a 30 second one which is the

estimate a 30 second one which is the ones that don’t appear on any list at

ones that don’t appear on any list at

ones that don’t appear on any list at all well if you go through all that and

all well if you go through all that and

all well if you go through all that and fit a mathematical model which is

fit a mathematical model which is

fit a mathematical model which is something as I did you find at the

something as I did you find at the

something as I did you find at the estimate of a number of victims is not

estimate of a number of victims is not

estimate of a number of victims is not two thousand seven hundred and

two thousand seven hundred and

two thousand seven hundred and forty-four but it’s between ten and

forty-four but it’s between ten and

forty-four but it’s between ten and thirteen thousand victims that figure is

thirteen thousand victims that figure is

thirteen thousand victims that figure is very important why for two reasons

very important why for two reasons

very important why for two reasons really the first reason is by exposing

really the first reason is by exposing

really the first reason is by exposing the size of the problem it actually

the size of the problem it actually

the size of the problem it actually concentrated the mind of government of

concentrated the mind of government of

concentrated the mind of government of politicians of the public of the police

politicians of the public of the police

politicians of the public of the police of everybody on the fact that modern

of everybody on the fact that modern

of everybody on the fact that modern slavery wasn’t just a little niche thing

slavery wasn’t just a little niche thing

slavery wasn’t just a little niche thing that happened to a few people it’s a big

that happened to a few people it’s a big

that happened to a few people it’s a big and serious issue it’s one that we all

and serious issue it’s one that we all

and serious issue it’s one that we all have to be concerned about and this

have to be concerned about and this

have to be concerned about and this methodology that we’ve developed we’ve

methodology that we’ve developed we’ve

methodology that we’ve developed we’ve we hope to apply internationally other

we hope to apply internationally other

we hope to apply internationally other countries are doing similar things a lot

countries are doing similar things a lot

countries are doing similar things a lot of my work now is about rolling out the

of my work now is about rolling out the

of my work now is about rolling out the methods learning more about them and

methods learning more about them and

methods learning more about them and rolling out the methods so we can use

rolling out the methods so we can use

rolling out the methods so we can use methods like this all over the world and

methods like this all over the world and

methods like this all over the world and get a much better pitch of what’s going

get a much better pitch of what’s going

get a much better pitch of what’s going on so the first thing is raising

on so the first thing is raising

on so the first thing is raising consciousness and the second thing is of

consciousness and the second thing is of

consciousness and the second thing is of course making the case for the

course making the case for the

course making the case for the allocation of resources and that is also

allocation of resources and that is also

allocation of resources and that is also very important it’s is it the number of

very important it’s is it the number of

very important it’s is it the number of victims that the National Crime Agency

victims that the National Crime Agency

victims that the National Crime Agency now knows about has gone up every year

now knows about has gone up every year

now knows about has gone up every year and it’s now quite a lot more than 2744

and it’s now quite a lot more than 2744

and it’s now quite a lot more than 2744 does that mean there are more victims or

does that mean there are more victims or

does that mean there are more victims or does it mean we’re better at finding

does it mean we’re better at finding

does it mean we’re better at finding them I think it means that we’re better

them I think it means that we’re better

them I think it means that we’re better at finding them I was amazed how much

at finding them I was amazed how much

at finding them I was amazed how much attention this work received it was

attention this work received it was

attention this work received it was reported in national newspapers

reported in national newspapers

reported in national newspapers it has had very wide attention indeed

it has had very wide attention indeed

it has had very wide attention indeed and eventually all led up to the passing

and eventually all led up to the passing

and eventually all led up to the passing of the modern slavery at 2015 I think

of the modern slavery at 2015 I think

of the modern slavery at 2015 I think one thing I would leave you it as a

one thing I would leave you it as a

one thing I would leave you it as a thought which is which is this if you

thought which is which is this if you

thought which is which is this if you take a topic like climate change 30

take a topic like climate change 30

take a topic like climate change 30 years ago people knew that there was a

years ago people knew that there was a

years ago people knew that there was a problem with climate change but they

problem with climate change but they

problem with climate change but they didn’t really understand anything much

didn’t really understand anything much

didn’t really understand anything much about the mechanisms and so on so he

about the mechanisms and so on so he

about the mechanisms and so on so he knew as a problem but we had to learn a

knew as a problem but we had to learn a

knew as a problem but we had to learn a lot more about it modern slavery you

lot more about it modern slavery you

lot more about it modern slavery you know we thought – we’d abolish slavery

know we thought – we’d abolish slavery

know we thought – we’d abolish slavery 200 years ago or 150 years ago but of

200 years ago or 150 years ago but of

200 years ago or 150 years ago but of course this is still with us as a

course this is still with us as a

course this is still with us as a problem and if we are to address this

problem and if we are to address this

problem and if we are to address this and we are to achieve a world where

and we are to achieve a world where

and we are to achieve a world where nobody is in a situation of the people I

nobody is in a situation of the people I

nobody is in a situation of the people I spoke about at the beginning then we

spoke about at the beginning then we

spoke about at the beginning then we need to learn much more we need to do

need to learn much more we need to do

need to learn much more we need to do much better research and it’s only the

much better research and it’s only the

much better research and it’s only the step I and others have taken is only the

step I and others have taken is only the

step I and others have taken is only the first step towards getting a much bigger

first step towards getting a much bigger

first step towards getting a much bigger understanding so I hope I’ve given you

understanding so I hope I’ve given you

understanding so I hope I’ve given you an idea of the way that statistics has

an idea of the way that statistics has

an idea of the way that statistics has made a difference to what is a very very

made a difference to what is a very very

made a difference to what is a very very serious depressing problem but one which

serious depressing problem but one which

serious depressing problem but one which I hope we can all do our bit to do

I hope we can all do our bit to do

I hope we can all do our bit to do something about thank you

something about thank you

something about thank you [Applause]