Lead by admitting that you don’t know | Helen Minnis | TEDxGlasgow

it’s Saturday night you’re getting ready

it’s Saturday night you’re getting ready to go to dandy see a friend in the

to go to dandy see a friend in the

to go to dandy see a friend in the morning when on radio news you hear the

morning when on radio news you hear the

morning when on radio news you hear the deadly Glasgow love virus that decimates

deadly Glasgow love virus that decimates

deadly Glasgow love virus that decimates 50% of every community that affects has

50% of every community that affects has

50% of every community that affects has hit South Glasgow you’re in the north

hit South Glasgow you’re in the north

hit South Glasgow you’re in the north and you know that if you get out now

and you know that if you get out now

and you know that if you get out now you could be in Dundee and less than two

you could be in Dundee and less than two

you could be in Dundee and less than two errors it’s a no-brainer but then the

errors it’s a no-brainer but then the

errors it’s a no-brainer but then the radio says glass regions must not travel

radio says glass regions must not travel

radio says glass regions must not travel you think am I already infected

you think am I already infected

you think am I already infected should I see should I get out you don’t

should I see should I get out you don’t

should I see should I get out you don’t know but you have to decide this is what

know but you have to decide this is what

know but you have to decide this is what Kathryn Bishop from the University of

Kathryn Bishop from the University of

Kathryn Bishop from the University of Oxford calls a wicked problem something

Oxford calls a wicked problem something

Oxford calls a wicked problem something with multiple components that you’ve

with multiple components that you’ve

with multiple components that you’ve never encountered before so before they

never encountered before so before they

never encountered before so before they go back to your own dilemma I want to

go back to your own dilemma I want to

go back to your own dilemma I want to tell you a little bit about my own

tell you a little bit about my own

tell you a little bit about my own experience over the years and my

experience over the years and my

experience over the years and my attitude has changed to wicked problems

attitude has changed to wicked problems

attitude has changed to wicked problems when I was a little girl I was extremely

when I was a little girl I was extremely

when I was a little girl I was extremely strong minded and I once asked my mom a

strong minded and I once asked my mom a

strong minded and I once asked my mom a question that I can in you the answer to

question that I can in you the answer to

question that I can in you the answer to a thought I said mum what’s up here and

a thought I said mum what’s up here and

a thought I said mum what’s up here and she said that somebody of your own age

she said that somebody of your own age

she said that somebody of your own age and stage and I said you’re talking

and stage and I said you’re talking

and stage and I said you’re talking rubbish appear is an old guy with glee

rubbish appear is an old guy with glee

rubbish appear is an old guy with glee here who tells you what to do and I

here who tells you what to do and I

here who tells you what to do and I argued so strongly that eventually she

argued so strongly that eventually she

argued so strongly that eventually she just said believe what you like

just said believe what you like

just said believe what you like well of course I was a little bit rate

well of course I was a little bit rate

well of course I was a little bit rate that D appear back then wasn’t plenty of

that D appear back then wasn’t plenty of

that D appear back then wasn’t plenty of guys like that in the House of Lords but

guys like that in the House of Lords but

guys like that in the House of Lords but of course it was years before I was

of course it was years before I was

of course it was years before I was embarrassed to discover just how right

embarrassed to discover just how right

embarrassed to discover just how right she was and that my stubbornness had

she was and that my stubbornness had

she was and that my stubbornness had prevented me learning anything new that

prevented me learning anything new that

prevented me learning anything new that day

day

day Mark Twain said ain’t what you don’t

Mark Twain said ain’t what you don’t

Mark Twain said ain’t what you don’t know that’ll cause you problems it’s

know that’ll cause you problems it’s

know that’ll cause you problems it’s what you know for sure that just ain’t

what you know for sure that just ain’t

what you know for sure that just ain’t so I know a scientist and science is

so I know a scientist and science is

so I know a scientist and science is full of situations we

full of situations we

full of situations we you think you know for sure but actually

you think you know for sure but actually

you think you know for sure but actually it just ain’t sue and I’m just a little

it just ain’t sue and I’m just a little

it just ain’t sue and I’m just a little bit less stubborn these days I want to

bit less stubborn these days I want to

bit less stubborn these days I want to give you an example imagine you had done

give you an example imagine you had done

give you an example imagine you had done a Sophie of the people of Glasgow and

a Sophie of the people of Glasgow and

a Sophie of the people of Glasgow and you discovered that people who sing

you discovered that people who sing

you discovered that people who sing karaoke more than three times a week at

karaoke more than three times a week at

karaoke more than three times a week at an increased risk of liver disease well

an increased risk of liver disease well

an increased risk of liver disease well obviously that’s a remarkable finding so

obviously that’s a remarkable finding so

obviously that’s a remarkable finding so you send your findings off to The Lancet

you send your findings off to The Lancet

you send your findings off to The Lancet and then they come back just a few days

and then they come back just a few days

and then they come back just a few days later with a letter from the editor

later with a letter from the editor

later with a letter from the editor seeing mm-hmm you didn’t take into

seeing mm-hmm you didn’t take into

seeing mm-hmm you didn’t take into account other portable explanations

account other portable explanations

account other portable explanations anything ah of course they have a point

anything ah of course they have a point

anything ah of course they have a point karaoke go is better with a drink and we

karaoke go is better with a drink and we

karaoke go is better with a drink and we know that alcohol is one of the primary

know that alcohol is one of the primary

know that alcohol is one of the primary causes of liver disease so in science we

causes of liver disease so in science we

causes of liver disease so in science we would call alcohol a confounder and in

would call alcohol a confounder and in

would call alcohol a confounder and in science that’s something that’s linked

science that’s something that’s linked

science that’s something that’s linked to both of the things that you think are

to both of the things that you think are

to both of the things that you think are linked in your study but there’s a more

linked in your study but there’s a more

linked in your study but there’s a more ordinary dictionary definition of a

ordinary dictionary definition of a

ordinary dictionary definition of a confounder and that’s something

confounder and that’s something

confounder and that’s something unexpected that can prove you wrong so

unexpected that can prove you wrong so

unexpected that can prove you wrong so the other thing that the editor The

the other thing that the editor The

the other thing that the editor The Lancet says to you as if you really want

Lancet says to you as if you really want

Lancet says to you as if you really want to demonstrate that reducing karaoke

to demonstrate that reducing karaoke

to demonstrate that reducing karaoke singing in Glasgow can reduce liver

singing in Glasgow can reduce liver

singing in Glasgow can reduce liver disease you need to do a randomized

disease you need to do a randomized

disease you need to do a randomized controlled trial

controlled trial

controlled trial so imagine we’ve done that this morning

so imagine we’ve done that this morning

so imagine we’ve done that this morning I would imagine that when you came in

I would imagine that when you came in

I would imagine that when you came in this morning many of you were sitting

this morning many of you were sitting

this morning many of you were sitting with people that you know your

with people that you know your

with people that you know your colleagues talking about things that you

colleagues talking about things that you

colleagues talking about things that you have in common if we instead have done a

have in common if we instead have done a

have in common if we instead have done a randomized control trial where I’ve been

randomized control trial where I’ve been

randomized control trial where I’ve been standing at the door at toss of a coin I

standing at the door at toss of a coin I

standing at the door at toss of a coin I allocate you randomly to that side or

allocate you randomly to that side or

allocate you randomly to that side or that side of the auditorium your group

that side of the auditorium your group

that side of the auditorium your group should be evenly splayed across either

should be evenly splayed across either

should be evenly splayed across either side a bit like studying the lumps into

side a bit like studying the lumps into

side a bit like studying the lumps into pancake batter and that’s the beauty of

pancake batter and that’s the beauty of

pancake batter and that’s the beauty of a randomized control trial at balancers

a randomized control trial at balancers

a randomized control trial at balancers all the confounders across both groups

all the confounders across both groups

all the confounders across both groups so that actually you would have the same

so that actually you would have the same

so that actually you would have the same number of heavy drinkers and you would

number of heavy drinkers and you would

number of heavy drinkers and you would also have the same risk of liver disease

also have the same risk of liver disease

also have the same risk of liver disease in both groups so if me then

in both groups so if me then

in both groups so if me then reduced karaoke reduction therapy just

reduced karaoke reduction therapy just

reduced karaoke reduction therapy just into this side of the auditorium

into this side of the auditorium

into this side of the auditorium we could prove whether it worked or not

we could prove whether it worked or not

we could prove whether it worked or not because everything else would be equal

because everything else would be equal

because everything else would be equal I’ll leave you to think about that but

I’ll leave you to think about that but

I’ll leave you to think about that but the only thing about a randomized

the only thing about a randomized

the only thing about a randomized controlled trial is it’s only ethical to

controlled trial is it’s only ethical to

controlled trial is it’s only ethical to do it if you really don’t know the

do it if you really don’t know the

do it if you really don’t know the answer many children who have cancer

answer many children who have cancer

answer many children who have cancer these days are entered into randomized

these days are entered into randomized

these days are entered into randomized control trials imagine you were a parent

control trials imagine you were a parent

control trials imagine you were a parent of a child with cancer sick child with

of a child with cancer sick child with

of a child with cancer sick child with cancer

cancer

cancer you’d be thinking I’m not going to enter

you’d be thinking I’m not going to enter

you’d be thinking I’m not going to enter my child into a game of chance but other

my child into a game of chance but other

my child into a game of chance but other parents on the ward might be seeing to

parents on the ward might be seeing to

parents on the ward might be seeing to you we’ve seen children do well and nine

you we’ve seen children do well and nine

you we’ve seen children do well and nine demise controlled trials it’s a wicked

demise controlled trials it’s a wicked

demise controlled trials it’s a wicked problem you don’t know but you have to

problem you don’t know but you have to

problem you don’t know but you have to decide so you talk to the doctors and

decide so you talk to the doctors and

decide so you talk to the doctors and they tell you that in the trial they’re

they tell you that in the trial they’re

they tell you that in the trial they’re competing the best known treatment of

competing the best known treatment of

competing the best known treatment of cancer with something that might even be

cancer with something that might even be

cancer with something that might even be a little bit better but they don’t know

a little bit better but they don’t know

a little bit better but they don’t know so that your child has the same chance

so that your child has the same chance

so that your child has the same chance of survival in either arm of the child

of survival in either arm of the child

of survival in either arm of the child and you’re relying on the doctors not

and you’re relying on the doctors not

and you’re relying on the doctors not knowing the answer so what does this got

knowing the answer so what does this got

knowing the answer so what does this got to do with leadership well imagine if

to do with leadership well imagine if

to do with leadership well imagine if your boss gave you a wicked problem my

your boss gave you a wicked problem my

your boss gave you a wicked problem my junior boss said our company’s losing

junior boss said our company’s losing

junior boss said our company’s losing money you’re almost certainly gonna have

money you’re almost certainly gonna have

money you’re almost certainly gonna have to meet your team redundant unless they

to meet your team redundant unless they

to meet your team redundant unless they can win a highly competitive contract

can win a highly competitive contract

can win a highly competitive contract that’s a tough problem for you you don’t

that’s a tough problem for you you don’t

that’s a tough problem for you you don’t know what to do but you have to decide

know what to do but you have to decide

know what to do but you have to decide who to tell do you keep that to yourself

who to tell do you keep that to yourself

who to tell do you keep that to yourself that night you can’t sleep you up at 4

that night you can’t sleep you up at 4

that night you can’t sleep you up at 4 o’clock in the morning you you’re

o’clock in the morning you you’re

o’clock in the morning you you’re composing a difficult email to those

composing a difficult email to those

composing a difficult email to those team members to warn them about the high

team members to warn them about the high

team members to warn them about the high chance of redundancy and then you think

chance of redundancy and then you think

chance of redundancy and then you think that if I do that how are they ever

that if I do that how are they ever

that if I do that how are they ever going to win the bid and then self-doubt

going to win the bid and then self-doubt

going to win the bid and then self-doubt starts to keeping you think surely if

starts to keeping you think surely if

starts to keeping you think surely if I’m a leader I should be able to make

I’m a leader I should be able to make

I’m a leader I should be able to make this decision but you sleep on it and

this decision but you sleep on it and

this decision but you sleep on it and then in the morning two of your most

then in the morning two of your most

then in the morning two of your most trusted team members are there in the

trusted team members are there in the

trusted team members are there in the coffee room and you spill the beans you

coffee room and you spill the beans you

coffee room and you spill the beans you see guys there’s a high chance that

see guys there’s a high chance that

see guys there’s a high chance that you’re gonna be made redundant

you’re gonna be made redundant

you’re gonna be made redundant and then they tell you of the confounder

and then they tell you of the confounder

and then they tell you of the confounder that unexpected thing that proves you

that unexpected thing that proves you

that unexpected thing that proves you wrong yes he they had had a phone call

wrong yes he they had had a phone call

wrong yes he they had had a phone call giving them the heads up that your team

giving them the heads up that your team

giving them the heads up that your team was actually the favorite to win the bed

was actually the favorite to win the bed

was actually the favorite to win the bed the chance of redundance is actually

the chance of redundance is actually

the chance of redundance is actually really very law thank goodness you

really very law thank goodness you

really very law thank goodness you didn’t demotivate the team by pressing

didn’t demotivate the team by pressing

didn’t demotivate the team by pressing send on that email so the team works

send on that email so the team works

send on that email so the team works really well they are galvanized they

really well they are galvanized they

really well they are galvanized they wind the beds you were a good leader he

wind the beds you were a good leader he

wind the beds you were a good leader he shared the burden of the problem and

shared the burden of the problem and

shared the burden of the problem and your team told you of confounders that

your team told you of confounders that

your team told you of confounders that that you couldn’t have guessed that that

that you couldn’t have guessed that that

that you couldn’t have guessed that that was time well spent but what if you

was time well spent but what if you

was time well spent but what if you don’t have time well that’s a crisis

don’t have time well that’s a crisis

don’t have time well that’s a crisis situation would you do with wicked

situation would you do with wicked

situation would you do with wicked problems then well one of our greatest

problems then well one of our greatest

problems then well one of our greatest leaders and decision makers was as

leaders and decision makers was as

leaders and decision makers was as Chesley Sullenberger some of you mean

Chesley Sullenberger some of you mean

Chesley Sullenberger some of you mean may know him as Sully who famously

may know him as Sully who famously

may know him as Sully who famously landed his Airbus a320 on the surface of

landed his Airbus a320 on the surface of

landed his Airbus a320 on the surface of the Hudson imagine the scene is a clear

the Hudson imagine the scene is a clear

the Hudson imagine the scene is a clear afternoon as they take off from

afternoon as they take off from

afternoon as they take off from LaGuardia Airport less than a minute

LaGuardia Airport less than a minute

LaGuardia Airport less than a minute after takeoff they hit a flock of Canada

after takeoff they hit a flock of Canada

after takeoff they hit a flock of Canada geese that take out both engines leaving

geese that take out both engines leaving

geese that take out both engines leaving the plane without power

the plane without power

the plane without power that a rapid interchange between Sully

that a rapid interchange between Sully

that a rapid interchange between Sully and air traffic control to no avail they

and air traffic control to no avail they

and air traffic control to no avail they can’t get back to any Airport throughout

can’t get back to any Airport throughout

can’t get back to any Airport throughout this the advanced drone proximity

this the advanced drone proximity

this the advanced drone proximity warning system is bleating terrain

warning system is bleating terrain

warning system is bleating terrain terrain pull up pull up terrain terrain

terrain pull up pull up terrain terrain

terrain pull up pull up terrain terrain pull up pull up 17 seconds before

pull up pull up 17 seconds before

pull up pull up 17 seconds before hitting surface of the Hudson and no

hitting surface of the Hudson and no

hitting surface of the Hudson and no doubt imagining almost certain death for

doubt imagining almost certain death for

doubt imagining almost certain death for himself and the 155 Souls under his care

himself and the 155 Souls under his care

himself and the 155 Souls under his care Chesley Sullenberger said to his first

Chesley Sullenberger said to his first

Chesley Sullenberger said to his first officer got any ideas I would argue that

officer got any ideas I would argue that

officer got any ideas I would argue that shading the burden of the problem helped

shading the burden of the problem helped

shading the burden of the problem helped him make a perfect water landing that

him make a perfect water landing that

him make a perfect water landing that day so back to your own dilemma there

day so back to your own dilemma there

day so back to your own dilemma there you are in North Glasgow you know you’ve

you are in North Glasgow you know you’ve

you are in North Glasgow you know you’ve got a 50/50

got a 50/50

got a 50/50 chance of dying if you stay but if

chance of dying if you stay but if

chance of dying if you stay but if you’re already infected you should stay

you’re already infected you should stay

you’re already infected you should stay and divert the nearest and dearest but

and divert the nearest and dearest but

and divert the nearest and dearest but if you’re free of the virus get out but

if you’re free of the virus get out but

if you’re free of the virus get out but what is a cardio state what if you could

what is a cardio state what if you could

what is a cardio state what if you could infect your friends and Dundy well you

infect your friends and Dundy well you

infect your friends and Dundy well you could infect the whole of Dundee you

could infect the whole of Dundee you

could infect the whole of Dundee you don’t know but you have to decide well

don’t know but you have to decide well

don’t know but you have to decide well remember that Mark Twain said ain’t what

remember that Mark Twain said ain’t what

remember that Mark Twain said ain’t what you don’t know that will cause you

you don’t know that will cause you

you don’t know that will cause you problems

problems

problems I would argue pick up the phone speak to

I would argue pick up the phone speak to

I would argue pick up the phone speak to your loved ones and see got any ideas