The numbers can be scary.
I bet if I ask you
How many were afraid, or did not like, or was bad
In math and statistics at school, will I get at least 50% of the hands raised?
maybe more.
But numbers have become more important than ever.
We all have heard the word “big data” or “data science” and the fact,
We are deficient in understanding numbers or compiling data.
But, what’s the problem?
What does this mean to us?
Well, it means that governments, businesses, advertisers,
Media and even some scholars
They will use this data to reflect your opinions
For error or for righteousness.
With so much information,
We are more likely to misunderstand, or even irritate, disinformation.
So what does this mean for non-statisticians and accountants?
Will you be fooled every day?
No.
We’ll learn how this type of account is not an account.
It is simply critical thinking.
It is the ability to uncover lies, lies, and statistics.
I will see every one of you today
How to do this.
So let’s take the first position:
(OJ Simpson), one of the most famous criminals known in American history.
Simpson was a celebrity footballer
He was charged with killing his freighter, Nicole Simpson,
And her lover, Ronald Lill Goldman.
During the trial, one of the lawyers (or C),
Not the Cardashian but Alan Dershowitz,
A famous legal mind in American law,
He made a convincing statistical argument.
He said that knowing that (or C) abused Nicole,
But that did not matter.
This has nothing to do with the case.
Because there are four million women being mistreated in the United States
By their partners every year,
Of those four million, only 25,00 are killed
By their partner who assaults them.
So the probability of killing (or C) for his wife is one in 2,500.
You can not convict a person of one probability in 2,500.
But what the jury should have, and certainly, eliminate attention to him
Is that Mr. Dershowitz’s statistics had nothing to do with the case.
It was also called “deviation of user model”.
Let me clarify.
In the case of Mr. Dershowitz,
Here is a group of living women who are being abused by their partners.
What a chance
That the partner injustice and then killed?
One at the 25.00.
But this is not our issue at all.
At trial time, Nicole Simpson was dead.
She was killed.
So she is among the group of women who die
Who were assaulted by their partners.
Among the women who have been victims of abuse by their partners,
Nine out of ten were killed by their abusive partner
Not by other members of society, some random cases.
So the chances of killing (or c) Nicole
It was 90% and not one in the 25.00.
This is the deviation of the user model:
Refer to a group similar to the group we’re talking about,
Make some statistics about them,
In fact, that’s not the group we’re talking about at all.
In our case the deviant model was the women who survived the abuse
By their partners.
The real model, which Nicole included,
The murdered women were assaulted by their partners.
Now, we have defamed lawyers, lost faith in the justice system,
Let’s move on to the media.
I was sitting in a cafe, eating bacon.
The only Scottish dish I loved.
(Laughter)
While I was dipping it into the delicious brown sauce,
I read the chances of my bowel cancer
It increases by 20% if you eat that sandwich.
That was the headline in the newspaper.
Suddenly, there is a government person on television,
He talks about “the real dangers of the bacon,” and our need to tax him.
Every news interface, you see, was talking about the subject.
But let’s take a closer look.
While the enmities were ambiguous,
The real study said that if you ate two slices of bacon every day,
Your chances of getting bowel cancer will increase by 20%.
This is really scary.
But the real question you should ask is that they are 20% more than what?
Well, no matter how many steaks you eat,
Five out of 100 will suffer from bowel cancer during their lifetime.
If all these 100 bacon sandwich eat every day,
Yes, it’s true, your chance of getting bowel cancer increases by 20%.
But what is 20% of five people?
One person.
So if all 100 people eat a sandwich every day,
Instead of five of them develop bowel cancer,
The six are the ones who will suffer.
It’s terrible, too terrible.
But not scary to the degree
Conceived by the media
When you say that your chances of getting bowel cancer will increase by 20%
If you ate a bacon sandwich.
This is called “relative risk”
The chance of getting a certain disease is one in a billion,
The researcher tells you
If you increase your wine consumption by two times a week,
You’re 100% more likely to get sick.
But the chance of getting the disease is two in a billion.
I think I’ll continue drinking wine.
(Laughter)
Well, we can not trust the media, we can not trust the justice system,
I will win the lottery, buy an island in Barbados,
I will leave here.
Someone must win, right?
Right? Should someone own that island?
As you can see, Camelot, the director of the National Lottery, gets good money
It is our belief that someone must win.
I’ll pay two pounds, I’ll have my chance, I want that island.
But what are my chances in reality?
One in 45 million.
That does not mean anything to me. I have no idea what this means.
Do you know?
I do not think so.
I mean, you might say you may become movie stars and do not win the lottery,
Or you may be killed with meat-eating bacteria
– which is true –
But that does not help me estimate the amount of 45 million.
But David Spiegelhater came up with a great idea to represent that quantity
Using bathtubs.
OK.
Imagine that you are inside a bath, really imagine it.
You stare at the bathtub.
It is full, and so on, with fresh rice.
Nothing fancy, only the rice you buy from the store,
Full of.
And you take one grain of rice – I carry one with my hand now –
They are painted with gold.
Then you bury them somewhere in the aquarium.
You bury them deep, and cover them with rice.
And now you shall call people into your bathroom,
They pay you two pounds for closing their eyes, inserting their hands inside the basin,
Miraculously, with one lucky dip, they pull out that golden rice.
It’s really profitable.
If you convince people to pay you two pounds to do it.
(Laughter)
If we really understand what the meaning of 45 million,
Will we buy a lottery?
I bought a lottery ticket because the (euro million) was as much as 130 million this week,
But I was aware of what I was doing, right?
What these examples and attitudes show us
Is that you do not have to bring a calculator everywhere.
All you need is to have a critical thought
In the back of your brain.
So if someone said something about a group,
Tell him, “What group are we talking about exactly?”
Someone who has said that you have a 100% chance of having a specific disease if you eat a tablet in March,
“100% increase out of what?”
Or, chances are one in a million.
Find a way to represent what is million on the ground.
The discovery of lies, dirty lies, statistics is not the work of the account.
It is simply critical thinking.
The fact of all this means is that if something does not seem true
– Number, Statistics, Study –
Maybe it really is not true.
Now you have the tools to ask the right question.
So when someone says, “It’s the truth, the data prove it.
It may be a lie.
thank you.
(clap)
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