[Music] [Applause]
[Music]
[Music] the superpower of every age lives in
the superpower of every age lives in
the superpower of every age lives in fear they live in fear because even in
fear they live in fear because even in
fear they live in fear because even in times of tranquility they have to worry
times of tranquility they have to worry
times of tranquility they have to worry about being challenged by a rising power
about being challenged by a rising power
about being challenged by a rising power and the reason they have to worry about
and the reason they have to worry about
and the reason they have to worry about it is that when a superpower Falls it
it is that when a superpower Falls it
it is that when a superpower Falls it falls by violence throughout history
falls by violence throughout history
falls by violence throughout history vicinities tells us that sparta the
vicinities tells us that sparta the
vicinities tells us that sparta the strongest state of the Peloponnese felt
strongest state of the Peloponnese felt
strongest state of the Peloponnese felt so threatened by the growing military
so threatened by the growing military
so threatened by the growing military strength and cultural dynamism of athens
strength and cultural dynamism of athens
strength and cultural dynamism of athens that it chose war Napoleon’s France
that it chose war Napoleon’s France
that it chose war Napoleon’s France conquered all of Europe before it could
conquered all of Europe before it could
conquered all of Europe before it could be beaten back and the balance of power
be beaten back and the balance of power
be beaten back and the balance of power reestablished in europe germany three
reestablished in europe germany three
reestablished in europe germany three times two times within 30 years thrust
times two times within 30 years thrust
times two times within 30 years thrust Europe into Cataclysm because the
Europe into Cataclysm because the
Europe into Cataclysm because the existing order could not accommodate
existing order could not accommodate
existing order could not accommodate Germany’s ambitions this is what
Germany’s ambitions this is what
Germany’s ambitions this is what hegemonic transitions look like scenes
hegemonic transitions look like scenes
hegemonic transitions look like scenes of battlefield carnage at tens of
of battlefield carnage at tens of
of battlefield carnage at tens of thousands hundreds of thousands millions
thousands hundreds of thousands millions
thousands hundreds of thousands millions of people killed in fact throughout all
of people killed in fact throughout all
of people killed in fact throughout all of history there is only a single
of history there is only a single
of history there is only a single instance of a superpower giving way
instance of a superpower giving way
instance of a superpower giving way peacefully to a rising Challenger and
peacefully to a rising Challenger and
peacefully to a rising Challenger and that’s Britain in the United States what
that’s Britain in the United States what
that’s Britain in the United States what was it that made this transition unique
was it that made this transition unique
was it that made this transition unique in all of history and peaceful what was
in all of history and peaceful what was
in all of history and peaceful what was it about one or both of these countries
it about one or both of these countries
it about one or both of these countries that made a transition possible between
that made a transition possible between
that made a transition possible between an existing hegemon and a rising
an existing hegemon and a rising
an existing hegemon and a rising challenger what does that tell us for
challenger what does that tell us for
challenger what does that tell us for future hegemonic transitions historians
future hegemonic transitions historians
future hegemonic transitions historians mark the distinction then the moment of
mark the distinction then the moment of
mark the distinction then the moment of hegemonic transition between Britain and
hegemonic transition between Britain and
hegemonic transition between Britain and the United States in
the United States in
the United States in different places some market when the
different places some market when the
different places some market when the American economy recovers from the Civil
American economy recovers from the Civil
American economy recovers from the Civil War and comes roaring into global
War and comes roaring into global
War and comes roaring into global prominence in the 1870s some market with
prominence in the 1870s some market with
prominence in the 1870s some market with the spanish-american war in 1898 the
the spanish-american war in 1898 the
the spanish-american war in 1898 the debutante ball of American military
debutante ball of American military
debutante ball of American military power some market at World War one when
power some market at World War one when
power some market at World War one when American money and American soldiers
American money and American soldiers
American money and American soldiers were essential to breaking the stalemate
were essential to breaking the stalemate
were essential to breaking the stalemate on the Western Front some market with
on the Western Front some market with
on the Western Front some market with the Versailles negotiations where the
the Versailles negotiations where the
the Versailles negotiations where the United States envisioned a different
United States envisioned a different
United States envisioned a different kind of victors peace some market from
kind of victors peace some market from
kind of victors peace some market from 1945 where that where the victorious
1945 where that where the victorious
1945 where that where the victorious United States imposed that peace on
United States imposed that peace on
United States imposed that peace on allies and adversaries alike I mark it I
allies and adversaries alike I mark it I
allies and adversaries alike I mark it I think the point of inflexion is in 1895
think the point of inflexion is in 1895
think the point of inflexion is in 1895 during a crisis now obscure in history
during a crisis now obscure in history
during a crisis now obscure in history over the boundaries of Venezuela we tend
over the boundaries of Venezuela we tend
over the boundaries of Venezuela we tend to think of Britain than the United
to think of Britain than the United
to think of Britain than the United States as so similar because we speak a
States as so similar because we speak a
States as so similar because we speak a common language we come from the
common language we come from the
common language we come from the European enlightenment we have parallel
European enlightenment we have parallel
European enlightenment we have parallel political traditions of representative
political traditions of representative
political traditions of representative governance and religious tolerance
governance and religious tolerance
governance and religious tolerance similarity is not what Britain then the
similarity is not what Britain then the
similarity is not what Britain then the United States looked like when this
United States looked like when this
United States looked like when this transition begins Britain had an empire
transition begins Britain had an empire
transition begins Britain had an empire on which the Sun never set it produced
on which the Sun never set it produced
on which the Sun never set it produced 25 percent of global GDP it sustained a
25 percent of global GDP it sustained a
25 percent of global GDP it sustained a navy twice as strong as the next
navy twice as strong as the next
navy twice as strong as the next Challenger by policy Britain viewed
Challenger by policy Britain viewed
Challenger by policy Britain viewed Americans as people too extreme in their
Americans as people too extreme in their
Americans as people too extreme in their politics and religion to live in peace
politics and religion to live in peace
politics and religion to live in peace anywhere else our great pride in the
anywhere else our great pride in the
anywhere else our great pride in the creed that all men are created equal
creed that all men are created equal
creed that all men are created equal looked ludicrously hypocritical in when
looked ludicrously hypocritical in when
looked ludicrously hypocritical in when slavery existed in America and even long
slavery existed in America and even long
slavery existed in America and even long after that Charles Dickens describes
after that Charles Dickens describes
after that Charles Dickens describes American culture as more barbarous than
American culture as more barbarous than
American culture as more barbarous than the Indian civilizations it conquers and
the Indian civilizations it conquers and
the Indian civilizations it conquers and when the founding fathers generation
when the founding fathers generation
when the founding fathers generation transitions to the rough
transitions to the rough
transitions to the rough oonh men of the frontier Andrew Jackson
oonh men of the frontier Andrew Jackson
oonh men of the frontier Andrew Jackson and Abraham Lincoln the United States
and Abraham Lincoln the United States
and Abraham Lincoln the United States looks even more alarming to Britain that
looks even more alarming to Britain that
looks even more alarming to Britain that had had previously and and the 1880s and
had had previously and and the 1880s and
had had previously and and the 1880s and 1890s were a tumultuous time in American
1890s were a tumultuous time in American
1890s were a tumultuous time in American politics the the American economy had
politics the the American economy had
politics the the American economy had with a closing of the American West
with a closing of the American West
with a closing of the American West Americans began worrying whether the
Americans began worrying whether the
Americans began worrying whether the economy could provide enough jobs for
economy could provide enough jobs for
economy could provide enough jobs for everyone and that translated into
everyone and that translated into
everyone and that translated into tumultuous politics in 1887 President
tumultuous politics in 1887 President
tumultuous politics in 1887 President Grover Cleveland devoted his entire
Grover Cleveland devoted his entire
Grover Cleveland devoted his entire State of the Union address to talking
State of the Union address to talking
State of the Union address to talking about the importance of opening the
about the importance of opening the
about the importance of opening the American economy to the world that our
American economy to the world that our
American economy to the world that our industries were strong enough to bear
industries were strong enough to bear
industries were strong enough to bear the competition that wages could be
the competition that wages could be
the competition that wages could be sustained even if we open to the world
sustained even if we open to the world
sustained even if we open to the world it was an economic tour-de-force
it was an economic tour-de-force
it was an economic tour-de-force and a political disaster his party the
and a political disaster his party the
and a political disaster his party the Democrats lost both houses of Congress
Democrats lost both houses of Congress
Democrats lost both houses of Congress and he was voted out of office as
and he was voted out of office as
and he was voted out of office as president Republicans under Benjamin
president Republicans under Benjamin
president Republicans under Benjamin Harrison proceeded to institute tariffs
Harrison proceeded to institute tariffs
Harrison proceeded to institute tariffs as high as fifty percent across some
as high as fifty percent across some
as high as fifty percent across some industries with a predictable economic
industries with a predictable economic
industries with a predictable economic devastation and two years later the
devastation and two years later the
devastation and two years later the midterm election of 1890 Republicans
midterm election of 1890 Republicans
midterm election of 1890 Republicans lost 50% of their seats in the house
lost 50% of their seats in the house
lost 50% of their seats in the house bender Benjamin Harrison gets voted out
bender Benjamin Harrison gets voted out
bender Benjamin Harrison gets voted out of office and Grover Cleveland comes
of office and Grover Cleveland comes
of office and Grover Cleveland comes back in 1892 the only American president
back in 1892 the only American president
back in 1892 the only American president to serve non-consecutive terms in office
to serve non-consecutive terms in office
to serve non-consecutive terms in office Cleveland was no imperialist he he
Cleveland was no imperialist he he
Cleveland was no imperialist he he opposed the annexation of Hawaii that
opposed the annexation of Hawaii that
opposed the annexation of Hawaii that his predecessor had put into place he
his predecessor had put into place he
his predecessor had put into place he believed that the Monroe Doctrine which
believed that the Monroe Doctrine which
believed that the Monroe Doctrine which said that the United States would oppose
said that the United States would oppose
said that the United States would oppose efforts by any power to create colonies
efforts by any power to create colonies
efforts by any power to create colonies in the Western Hemisphere it had been
in the Western Hemisphere it had been
in the Western Hemisphere it had been settled American policy for 70 years and
settled American policy for 70 years and
settled American policy for 70 years and Grover Cleveland called it a troublesome
Grover Cleveland called it a troublesome
Grover Cleveland called it a troublesome doctrine so it’s deeply ironic that
doctrine so it’s deeply ironic that
doctrine so it’s deeply ironic that Grover Cleveland becomes the first
Grover Cleveland becomes the first
Grover Cleveland becomes the first American president
American president
American president to enforce the Monroe Doctrine and he
to enforce the Monroe Doctrine and he
to enforce the Monroe Doctrine and he does it against Great Britain Britain
does it against Great Britain Britain
does it against Great Britain Britain and Venezuela had been disputing where
and Venezuela had been disputing where
and Venezuela had been disputing where the boundary line fell between Britain’s
the boundary line fell between Britain’s
the boundary line fell between Britain’s territory of Guiana and Venezuela
territory of Guiana and Venezuela
territory of Guiana and Venezuela they’d been disputing that for over 50
they’d been disputing that for over 50
they’d been disputing that for over 50 years
years
years but in 1893 the government of Venezuela
but in 1893 the government of Venezuela
but in 1893 the government of Venezuela appealed to the United States for
appealed to the United States for
appealed to the United States for protection from Britain invoking the
protection from Britain invoking the
protection from Britain invoking the Monroe Doctrine Cleveland initially took
Monroe Doctrine Cleveland initially took
Monroe Doctrine Cleveland initially took a mild position recommending arbitration
a mild position recommending arbitration
a mild position recommending arbitration Britain responded by landing Marines in
Britain responded by landing Marines in
Britain responded by landing Marines in the Venezuelan port of corinto and
the Venezuelan port of corinto and
the Venezuelan port of corinto and seizing the country they repudiated the
seizing the country they repudiated the
seizing the country they repudiated the monroe doctrine saying that it had no
monroe doctrine saying that it had no
monroe doctrine saying that it had no legal standing and that moreover Britain
legal standing and that moreover Britain
legal standing and that moreover Britain too was sovereign as an American power
too was sovereign as an American power
too was sovereign as an American power and controlled more territory than the
and controlled more territory than the
and controlled more territory than the United States did in North America as
United States did in North America as
United States did in North America as you can see from this cartoon that’s
you can see from this cartoon that’s
you can see from this cartoon that’s Grover Cleveland twisting the tale of
Grover Cleveland twisting the tale of
Grover Cleveland twisting the tale of the great British lion and all of the
the great British lion and all of the
the great British lion and all of the Monarchs of Europe laughing at Britain
Monarchs of Europe laughing at Britain
Monarchs of Europe laughing at Britain so Grover Cleveland confronted with
so Grover Cleveland confronted with
so Grover Cleveland confronted with British seizure of Venezuela goes to the
British seizure of Venezuela goes to the
British seizure of Venezuela goes to the American Congress and asked for their
American Congress and asked for their
American Congress and asked for their support to go to war with Great Britain
support to go to war with Great Britain
support to go to war with Great Britain if Great Britain will not agree to
if Great Britain will not agree to
if Great Britain will not agree to arbitration over Venezuela he gives a
arbitration over Venezuela he gives a
arbitration over Venezuela he gives a speech in which he says the United
speech in which he says the United
speech in which he says the United States because we alone are a democracy
States because we alone are a democracy
States because we alone are a democracy in the world we are a law unto ourselves
in the world we are a law unto ourselves
in the world we are a law unto ourselves and must protect ourselves from
and must protect ourselves from
and must protect ourselves from depredation like this the resolution
depredation like this the resolution
depredation like this the resolution passes both houses of Congress without a
passes both houses of Congress without a
passes both houses of Congress without a single opposing vote Teddy Roosevelt
single opposing vote Teddy Roosevelt
single opposing vote Teddy Roosevelt starts talking about the importance of
starts talking about the importance of
starts talking about the importance of jingo speeches and war with Britain
jingo speeches and war with Britain
jingo speeches and war with Britain American generals determined that they
American generals determined that they
American generals determined that they can invade Canada with ten days
can invade Canada with ten days
can invade Canada with ten days preparation and the British military
preparation and the British military
preparation and the British military agrees that Canada it’s hopeless to
agrees that Canada it’s hopeless to
agrees that Canada it’s hopeless to defend
defend
defend Canada against the United States so why
Canada against the United States so why
Canada against the United States so why doesn’t war happen this is your classic
doesn’t war happen this is your classic
doesn’t war happen this is your classic set up for a hegemonic war it doesn’t
set up for a hegemonic war it doesn’t
set up for a hegemonic war it doesn’t happen because the people of the United
happen because the people of the United
happen because the people of the United States and Great Britain intervene
States and Great Britain intervene
States and Great Britain intervene American newspapers start appeal to the
American newspapers start appeal to the
American newspapers start appeal to the British to write letters in support of
British to write letters in support of
British to write letters in support of peace and thousands and thousands of
peace and thousands and thousands of
peace and thousands and thousands of people do including the Prince of Wales
people do including the Prince of Wales
people do including the Prince of Wales the husband of Queen Victoria 354
the husband of Queen Victoria 354
the husband of Queen Victoria 354 members of the British Parliament appeal
members of the British Parliament appeal
members of the British Parliament appeal to their american legislative
to their american legislative
to their american legislative counterparts for the to have any are to
counterparts for the to have any are to
counterparts for the to have any are to have any dispute between the two
have any dispute between the two
have any dispute between the two countries solved peacefully so what
countries solved peacefully so what
countries solved peacefully so what begins as a potential conflict as a
begins as a potential conflict as a
begins as a potential conflict as a potential war between Britain and the
potential war between Britain and the
potential war between Britain and the United States ends up with them as
United States ends up with them as
United States ends up with them as allies these are members of the British
allies these are members of the British
allies these are members of the British government feeding the vulture of
government feeding the vulture of
government feeding the vulture of American expansionism and what makes
American expansionism and what makes
American expansionism and what makes this peaceful is because the people of
this peaceful is because the people of
this peaceful is because the people of both countries come to see themselves as
both countries come to see themselves as
both countries come to see themselves as so similar that war between them would
so similar that war between them would
so similar that war between them would be fret aside what does this mean for a
be fret aside what does this mean for a
be fret aside what does this mean for a rising China what does this mean for a
rising China what does this mean for a
rising China what does this mean for a rising China China’s rise has been
rising China China’s rise has been
rising China China’s rise has been genuinely astronomical hundreds of
genuinely astronomical hundreds of
genuinely astronomical hundreds of millions of people lifted out of poverty
millions of people lifted out of poverty
millions of people lifted out of poverty since 1978 when the government turned
since 1978 when the government turned
since 1978 when the government turned towards capitalism and China’s rise
towards capitalism and China’s rise
towards capitalism and China’s rise though is an authoritarian capitalism
though is an authoritarian capitalism
though is an authoritarian capitalism the government is betting that the
the government is betting that the
the government is betting that the people of China as long as they continue
people of China as long as they continue
people of China as long as they continue to grow wealthy won’t care about
to grow wealthy won’t care about
to grow wealthy won’t care about political liberty presidencies Chinese
political liberty presidencies Chinese
political liberty presidencies Chinese dream is the tight political control of
dream is the tight political control of
dream is the tight political control of the Communist Party increasing
the Communist Party increasing
the Communist Party increasing prosperity and the respect of the world
prosperity and the respect of the world
prosperity and the respect of the world and whether China can achieve this is an
and whether China can achieve this is an
and whether China can achieve this is an open question there are a lot of chow
open question there are a lot of chow
open question there are a lot of chow that stand in the way of China becoming
that stand in the way of China becoming
that stand in the way of China becoming a superpower whether for example they
a superpower whether for example they
a superpower whether for example they can navigate the middle income trap that
can navigate the middle income trap that
can navigate the middle income trap that many developing economies get mired down
many developing economies get mired down
many developing economies get mired down in as they try and transition from
in as they try and transition from
in as they try and transition from manufacturing to higher value exports
manufacturing to higher value exports
manufacturing to higher value exports whether the kinds of people who produce
whether the kinds of people who produce
whether the kinds of people who produce those exports will continue to permit
those exports will continue to permit
those exports will continue to permit themselves not to be protected with
themselves not to be protected with
themselves not to be protected with individual rights and liberties from
individual rights and liberties from
individual rights and liberties from their government whether China can grow
their government whether China can grow
their government whether China can grow wealthy before they grow old with the
wealthy before they grow old with the
wealthy before they grow old with the demographic consequences of the
demographic consequences of the
demographic consequences of the one-child policy whether their
one-child policy whether their
one-child policy whether their aggressiveness towards their neighbors
aggressiveness towards their neighbors
aggressiveness towards their neighbors will keep those neighbors continued tied
will keep those neighbors continued tied
will keep those neighbors continued tied in tight alliance with the United States
in tight alliance with the United States
in tight alliance with the United States I myself am skeptical that China can
I myself am skeptical that China can
I myself am skeptical that China can continue to rise and become a superpower
continue to rise and become a superpower
continue to rise and become a superpower of here and a competitor of the United
of here and a competitor of the United
of here and a competitor of the United States but what we learn from the
States but what we learn from the
States but what we learn from the transition from British to American
transition from British to American
transition from British to American hegemony is that what is crucial in
hegemony is that what is crucial in
hegemony is that what is crucial in making for a peaceful transition is a
making for a peaceful transition is a
making for a peaceful transition is a sense of commonality between publics
sense of commonality between publics
sense of commonality between publics it’s more important than government
it’s more important than government
it’s more important than government policy it’s more important than what
policy it’s more important than what
policy it’s more important than what people think their national interests
people think their national interests
people think their national interests are that if they believe that there is a
are that if they believe that there is a
are that if they believe that there is a sense of commonality that creates the
sense of commonality that creates the
sense of commonality that creates the political space for compromises on
political space for compromises on
political space for compromises on national interests and compromises on
national interests and compromises on
national interests and compromises on government policy so really the central
government policy so really the central
government policy so really the central question of war and peace in our current
question of war and peace in our current
question of war and peace in our current age is whether a rising China and a
age is whether a rising China and a
age is whether a rising China and a superpower united states can find a
superpower united states can find a
superpower united states can find a sense of commonality between their two
sense of commonality between their two
sense of commonality between their two peoples because that’s the most
peoples because that’s the most
peoples because that’s the most important thing in making for safe
important thing in making for safe
important thing in making for safe passage between a rising power and an
passage between a rising power and an
passage between a rising power and an established superpower thank you
established superpower thank you
established superpower thank you you
”
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