I’d like to start with a quote from Donald Rumsfeld it was in response to a
Donald Rumsfeld it was in response to a
Donald Rumsfeld it was in response to a reporter’s question regarding the war in
reporter’s question regarding the war in
reporter’s question regarding the war in Iraq there are known knowns there are
Iraq there are known knowns there are
Iraq there are known knowns there are things we know we know we also know
things we know we know we also know
things we know we know we also know there are known unknowns that is to say
there are known unknowns that is to say
there are known unknowns that is to say we know there are some things we do not
we know there are some things we do not
we know there are some things we do not know but there are also unknown unknowns
know but there are also unknown unknowns
know but there are also unknown unknowns the ones we don’t know we don’t know so
the ones we don’t know we don’t know so
the ones we don’t know we don’t know so this statement sounds fairly convoluted
this statement sounds fairly convoluted
this statement sounds fairly convoluted difficult to follow and Roosevelt was
difficult to follow and Roosevelt was
difficult to follow and Roosevelt was made fun of quite a bit after making
made fun of quite a bit after making
made fun of quite a bit after making this statement but I think there’s
this statement but I think there’s
this statement but I think there’s actually quite a bit of truth in this
actually quite a bit of truth in this
actually quite a bit of truth in this statement that impacts how you make
statement that impacts how you make
statement that impacts how you make decisions in our daily lives and in
decisions in our daily lives and in
decisions in our daily lives and in society as a whole and the quality of
society as a whole and the quality of
society as a whole and the quality of those decisions when we talk about
those decisions when we talk about
those decisions when we talk about knowledge we think about actual
knowledge we think about actual
knowledge we think about actual knowledge levels we think about things
knowledge levels we think about things
knowledge levels we think about things like facts we think about do we know the
like facts we think about do we know the
like facts we think about do we know the state capitals do we know who our
state capitals do we know who our
state capitals do we know who our senator is do we know how to do long
senator is do we know how to do long
senator is do we know how to do long division that kind of thing we also
division that kind of thing we also
division that kind of thing we also think about skills do we know how to
think about skills do we know how to
think about skills do we know how to change a tire do we know how to bake do
change a tire do we know how to bake do
change a tire do we know how to bake do we know how to drive a standard
we know how to drive a standard
we know how to drive a standard that kind of thing so we have these two
that kind of thing so we have these two
that kind of thing so we have these two kind of generally thought of ways of
kind of generally thought of ways of
kind of generally thought of ways of thinking about knowledge facts and
thinking about knowledge facts and
thinking about knowledge facts and skills and when we think about that in
skills and when we think about that in
skills and when we think about that in terms of solving our problems in our
terms of solving our problems in our
terms of solving our problems in our daily lives or in public policy we come
daily lives or in public policy we come
daily lives or in public policy we come up with easy solutions think about
up with easy solutions think about
up with easy solutions think about things like health care whether it’s
things like health care whether it’s
things like health care whether it’s vaccinations cancer screenings that kind
vaccinations cancer screenings that kind
vaccinations cancer screenings that kind of thing we think if we just educate
of thing we think if we just educate
of thing we think if we just educate people more provide them with more
people more provide them with more
people more provide them with more information they’ll make better
information they’ll make better
information they’ll make better decisions have better outcomes
decisions have better outcomes
decisions have better outcomes individually and then better outcomes at
individually and then better outcomes at
individually and then better outcomes at the societal level as a whole but as we
the societal level as a whole but as we
the societal level as a whole but as we can see with things like Surgeon
can see with things like Surgeon
can see with things like Surgeon General’s warnings we don’t always get
General’s warnings we don’t always get
General’s warnings we don’t always get those outcomes that we expect from
those outcomes that we expect from
those outcomes that we expect from educating individuals because when we
educating individuals because when we
educating individuals because when we think about these think about knowledge
think about these think about knowledge
think about these think about knowledge in this way of actual knowledge we
in this way of actual knowledge we
in this way of actual knowledge we ignore what people think they know
ultimately what people think they know
ultimately what people think they know is the actual driver of our behaviors
is the actual driver of our behaviors
is the actual driver of our behaviors it’s not our actual knowledge that leads
it’s not our actual knowledge that leads
it’s not our actual knowledge that leads us to choose to do something or support
us to choose to do something or support
us to choose to do something or support a politician or anything like that it’s
a politician or anything like that it’s
a politician or anything like that it’s what we think we know so when we have
what we think we know so when we have
what we think we know so when we have these two kind of ways of thinking about
these two kind of ways of thinking about
these two kind of ways of thinking about knowledge actual knowledge and our own
knowledge actual knowledge and our own
knowledge actual knowledge and our own perceived knowledge levels we can come
perceived knowledge levels we can come
perceived knowledge levels we can come up with some conditions so thinking
up with some conditions so thinking
up with some conditions so thinking about actual knowledge it operates on a
about actual knowledge it operates on a
about actual knowledge it operates on a continuum we can know nothing about a
continuum we can know nothing about a
continuum we can know nothing about a topic or know everything about a topic
topic or know everything about a topic
topic or know everything about a topic or anywhere in between receive knowledge
or anywhere in between receive knowledge
or anywhere in between receive knowledge is the same way we can think we know
is the same way we can think we know
is the same way we can think we know nothing about a topic or think we know
nothing about a topic or think we know
nothing about a topic or think we know everything about a topic or anywhere in
everything about a topic or anywhere in
everything about a topic or anywhere in between
between
between you put these cut two together we can
you put these cut two together we can
you put these cut two together we can come up with some conditions we can
come up with some conditions we can
come up with some conditions we can accurately assess our knowledge by not
accurately assess our knowledge by not
accurately assess our knowledge by not thinking that we know that much and
thinking that we know that much and
thinking that we know that much and being correct we can also accurately
being correct we can also accurately
being correct we can also accurately assess our knowledge by thinking we know
assess our knowledge by thinking we know
assess our knowledge by thinking we know a lot about a topic and be correct we
a lot about a topic and be correct we
a lot about a topic and be correct we don’t typically have problems with these
don’t typically have problems with these
don’t typically have problems with these these are kind of the ideal right
these are kind of the ideal right
these are kind of the ideal right however when we misidentifying our own
however when we misidentifying our own
however when we misidentifying our own knowledge levels we can run into some
knowledge levels we can run into some
knowledge levels we can run into some problems there’s this idea of knowledge
problems there’s this idea of knowledge
problems there’s this idea of knowledge humility where we underestimate our
humility where we underestimate our
humility where we underestimate our actual knowledge levels we don’t think
actual knowledge levels we don’t think
actual knowledge levels we don’t think we know that much but we actually know
we know that much but we actually know
we know that much but we actually know more on the flip side we have this idea
more on the flip side we have this idea
more on the flip side we have this idea of knowledge hubris where we think we
of knowledge hubris where we think we
of knowledge hubris where we think we know a lot about a topic but we actually
know a lot about a topic but we actually
know a lot about a topic but we actually don’t know that much so together we had
don’t know that much so together we had
don’t know that much so together we had this idea of knowledge congruence how
this idea of knowledge congruence how
this idea of knowledge congruence how congruent is our actual knowledge level
congruent is our actual knowledge level
congruent is our actual knowledge level with our perceived knowledge levels so
with our perceived knowledge levels so
with our perceived knowledge levels so what is this matter a lot of outcomes
what is this matter a lot of outcomes
what is this matter a lot of outcomes are associated with this in congruence
are associated with this in congruence
are associated with this in congruence for example how we perceive risk is
for example how we perceive risk is
for example how we perceive risk is important there was a study done that
important there was a study done that
important there was a study done that looked at junior high and senior high
looked at junior high and senior high
looked at junior high and senior high girls and their knowledge on safe sex
girls and their knowledge on safe sex
girls and their knowledge on safe sex practices and the study found that the
practices and the study found that the
practices and the study found that the more that the girls thought that they
more that the girls thought that they
more that the girls thought that they knew about safe sex practices the more
knew about safe sex practices the more
knew about safe sex practices the more likely they were to become pregnant over
likely they were to become pregnant over
likely they were to become pregnant over the next year so exactly the opposite
the next year so exactly the opposite
the next year so exactly the opposite outcome that you would expect from
outcome that you would expect from
outcome that you would expect from knowing a lot about safe sex practices
knowing a lot about safe sex practices
knowing a lot about safe sex practices so what happens here is that when we
so what happens here is that when we
so what happens here is that when we overestimate our knowledge levels we
overestimate our knowledge levels we
overestimate our knowledge levels we actually don’t see the risks that are
actually don’t see the risks that are
actually don’t see the risks that are available
available
available or we think that we are able incapable
or we think that we are able incapable
or we think that we are able incapable of handling those risks leading to more
of handling those risks leading to more
of handling those risks leading to more risky behaviors negative outcomes there
risky behaviors negative outcomes there
risky behaviors negative outcomes there on the flip side of that when we
on the flip side of that when we
on the flip side of that when we underestimate our knowledge levels we
underestimate our knowledge levels we
underestimate our knowledge levels we end up seeing risk that may not exist we
end up seeing risk that may not exist we
end up seeing risk that may not exist we we don’t know in how much we actually
we don’t know in how much we actually
we don’t know in how much we actually know and we make up risk and in turn
know and we make up risk and in turn
know and we make up risk and in turn don’t go through behaviors or the
don’t go through behaviors or the
don’t go through behaviors or the decision-making process in the
decision-making process in the
decision-making process in the appropriate way there
appropriate way there
appropriate way there information-seeking is also very
information-seeking is also very
information-seeking is also very different depending on how we assess our
different depending on how we assess our
different depending on how we assess our knowledge we all think think about
knowledge we all think think about
knowledge we all think think about looking at purchasing a new vehicle or a
looking at purchasing a new vehicle or a
looking at purchasing a new vehicle or a new television and wanting to get
new television and wanting to get
new television and wanting to get information we all look at expert
information we all look at expert
information we all look at expert reviews that kind of thing but what
reviews that kind of thing but what
reviews that kind of thing but what happens when we overestimate our
happens when we overestimate our
happens when we overestimate our knowledge levels we ignore our friends
knowledge levels we ignore our friends
knowledge levels we ignore our friends family acquaintances because we assume
family acquaintances because we assume
family acquaintances because we assume that we know more than they do so we
that we know more than they do so we
that we know more than they do so we completely leave a source of information
completely leave a source of information
completely leave a source of information out on the flip side when we
out on the flip side when we
out on the flip side when we underestimate our knowledge levels we we
underestimate our knowledge levels we we
underestimate our knowledge levels we we look to much we don’t recognize what we
look to much we don’t recognize what we
look to much we don’t recognize what we know and the ability that we already
know and the ability that we already
know and the ability that we already have to make a decision and spend more
have to make a decision and spend more
have to make a decision and spend more time than necessary looking for
time than necessary looking for
time than necessary looking for information to help guide us in our
information to help guide us in our
information to help guide us in our decision making a lot of those same
decision making a lot of those same
decision making a lot of those same lines we have issues with learning when
lines we have issues with learning when
lines we have issues with learning when we overestimate our knowledge levels
we overestimate our knowledge levels
we overestimate our knowledge levels learning becomes a challenge because we
learning becomes a challenge because we
learning becomes a challenge because we don’t see the need to do it right we
don’t see the need to do it right we
don’t see the need to do it right we already assume that we know a lot about
already assume that we know a lot about
already assume that we know a lot about the topic when we hear information that
the topic when we hear information that
the topic when we hear information that conflicts with what we already think who
conflicts with what we already think who
conflicts with what we already think who we know we reject it we prevent
we know we reject it we prevent
we know we reject it we prevent ourselves from learning on the flip side
ourselves from learning on the flip side
ourselves from learning on the flip side when we underestimate our knowledge
when we underestimate our knowledge
when we underestimate our knowledge levels we try to learn more than we need
levels we try to learn more than we need
levels we try to learn more than we need to we and we end up potentially
to we and we end up potentially
to we and we end up potentially confusing ourselves even more actually
confusing ourselves even more actually
confusing ourselves even more actually decreasing what we know on the specific
decreasing what we know on the specific
decreasing what we know on the specific topic and then finally our attitudes and
topic and then finally our attitudes and
topic and then finally our attitudes and perceptions are affected by this
perceptions are affected by this
perceptions are affected by this knowledge congruence or in congruence
knowledge congruence or in congruence
knowledge congruence or in congruence when we overestimate our knowledge
when we overestimate our knowledge
when we overestimate our knowledge levels we end up with more extreme
levels we end up with more extreme
levels we end up with more extreme positions not only are these positions
positions not only are these positions
positions not only are these positions often more extreme but they’re less
often more extreme but they’re less
often more extreme but they’re less malleable we get stuck we have very
malleable we get stuck we have very
malleable we get stuck we have very rigid attitudes and view
rigid attitudes and view
rigid attitudes and view on whatever the issue is on the flip
on whatever the issue is on the flip
on whatever the issue is on the flip side when we underestimate our knowledge
side when we underestimate our knowledge
side when we underestimate our knowledge levels we by default go to a more
levels we by default go to a more
levels we by default go to a more moderate position whether that’s
moderate position whether that’s
moderate position whether that’s appropriate or not not only do we go to
appropriate or not not only do we go to
appropriate or not not only do we go to a more moderate position and have more
a more moderate position and have more
a more moderate position and have more moderate attitudes
moderate attitudes
moderate attitudes those attitudes are very malleable a
those attitudes are very malleable a
those attitudes are very malleable a little bit of information can move this
little bit of information can move this
little bit of information can move this one way or the other whether it should
one way or the other whether it should
one way or the other whether it should or not so with this in mind how do we
or not so with this in mind how do we
or not so with this in mind how do we get there we can see that the knowledge
get there we can see that the knowledge
get there we can see that the knowledge congruence in impacts our
congruence in impacts our
congruence in impacts our decision-making and ultimately our
decision-making and ultimately our
decision-making and ultimately our outcomes so what leads to this here I’d
outcomes so what leads to this here I’d
outcomes so what leads to this here I’d like to share a story a few years ago I
like to share a story a few years ago I
like to share a story a few years ago I was talking to someone who worked as a
was talking to someone who worked as a
was talking to someone who worked as a data analyst and in this conversation he
data analyst and in this conversation he
data analyst and in this conversation he mentioned that he didn’t believe in
mentioned that he didn’t believe in
mentioned that he didn’t believe in climate change because he hadn’t seen
climate change because he hadn’t seen
climate change because he hadn’t seen any data that supported it so because of
any data that supported it so because of
any data that supported it so because of his position I was curious and I asked
his position I was curious and I asked
his position I was curious and I asked what data have you looked at and after a
what data have you looked at and after a
what data have you looked at and after a little bit of back-and-forth he admitted
little bit of back-and-forth he admitted
little bit of back-and-forth he admitted well I haven’t actually looked at any
well I haven’t actually looked at any
well I haven’t actually looked at any data so he came to this conclusion about
data so he came to this conclusion about
data so he came to this conclusion about climate change based on the information
climate change based on the information
climate change based on the information or based on his skill set we didn’t
or based on his skill set we didn’t
or based on his skill set we didn’t actually use it to decide what he
actually use it to decide what he
actually use it to decide what he thought there are at least a couple of
thought there are at least a couple of
thought there are at least a couple of things going on here a little bit of
things going on here a little bit of
things going on here a little bit of background his values in ideology would
background his values in ideology would
background his values in ideology would not allow him to accept the idea that
not allow him to accept the idea that
not allow him to accept the idea that climate change was real it just it
climate change was real it just it
climate change was real it just it wouldn’t fit with who he was so our
wouldn’t fit with who he was so our
wouldn’t fit with who he was so our values in our ideology are very
values in our ideology are very
values in our ideology are very important to us and when something
important to us and when something
important to us and when something conflicts with that we don’t accept this
conflicts with that we don’t accept this
conflicts with that we don’t accept this challenge to who we are we don’t seek
challenge to who we are we don’t seek
challenge to who we are we don’t seek information and try to actually learn
information and try to actually learn
information and try to actually learn more we defend ourselves by raising what
more we defend ourselves by raising what
more we defend ourselves by raising what we think we know about that issue in
we think we know about that issue in
we think we know about that issue in turn creating a graph in creating a gap
turn creating a graph in creating a gap
turn creating a graph in creating a gap in having challenges in terms of
in having challenges in terms of
in having challenges in terms of actually learning and gaining the
actually learning and gaining the
actually learning and gaining the knowledge that we think we already have
knowledge that we think we already have
knowledge that we think we already have second in this story he used this
second in this story he used this
second in this story he used this experience in data analysis analysts
experience in data analysis analysts
experience in data analysis analysts analysis to justify his position not
analysis to justify his position not
analysis to justify his position not having gone through any actual data
having gone through any actual data
having gone through any actual data analysis we draw on our experience to
analysis we draw on our experience to
analysis we draw on our experience to justify
justify
justify what we already think very often in in
what we already think very often in in
what we already think very often in in this case that’s what he did a second
this case that’s what he did a second
this case that’s what he did a second issue with experience is that while it
issue with experience is that while it
issue with experience is that while it does raise our actual knowledge levels
does raise our actual knowledge levels
does raise our actual knowledge levels very often making us experts while our
very often making us experts while our
very often making us experts while our actual knowledge levels raise what we
actual knowledge levels raise what we
actual knowledge levels raise what we think we know often raises much higher
think we know often raises much higher
think we know often raises much higher than the things we actually learn
than the things we actually learn
than the things we actually learn creating a gap that may not have existed
creating a gap that may not have existed
creating a gap that may not have existed before we developed the experience in a
before we developed the experience in a
before we developed the experience in a given area so we’ve talked about
given area so we’ve talked about
given area so we’ve talked about specific ideas right like things
specific ideas right like things
specific ideas right like things specific areas of knowledge personality
specific areas of knowledge personality
specific areas of knowledge personality can impact our knowledge congruence
can impact our knowledge congruence
can impact our knowledge congruence across an array of areas for example
across an array of areas for example
across an array of areas for example narcissists we all expect those people
narcissists we all expect those people
narcissists we all expect those people to think that they know a lot more than
to think that they know a lot more than
to think that they know a lot more than they actually do across topics on the
they actually do across topics on the
they actually do across topics on the flip side you have people who are more
flip side you have people who are more
flip side you have people who are more conscientious who take the time to
conscientious who take the time to
conscientious who take the time to evaluate what they actually know and are
evaluate what they actually know and are
evaluate what they actually know and are better able to figure out what they need
better able to figure out what they need
better able to figure out what they need to do to either learn more if they need
to do to either learn more if they need
to do to either learn more if they need to learn more so a lot of personality
to learn more so a lot of personality
to learn more so a lot of personality characteristics can come into play in
characteristics can come into play in
characteristics can come into play in terms of assessing our own knowledge
terms of assessing our own knowledge
terms of assessing our own knowledge levels and then finally much like our
levels and then finally much like our
levels and then finally much like our values in ideology our emotions impact
values in ideology our emotions impact
values in ideology our emotions impact the knowledge congruence when we feel
the knowledge congruence when we feel
the knowledge congruence when we feel angry about something we assume that
angry about something we assume that
angry about something we assume that it’s because we know something about
it’s because we know something about
it’s because we know something about whatever made us angry we don’t get
whatever made us angry we don’t get
whatever made us angry we don’t get angry and think well I don’t know
angry and think well I don’t know
angry and think well I don’t know anything about that but I’m still very
anything about that but I’m still very
anything about that but I’m still very upset so our emotions can significantly
upset so our emotions can significantly
upset so our emotions can significantly impact not our actual knowledge levels
impact not our actual knowledge levels
impact not our actual knowledge levels but our perceive knowledge levels and
but our perceive knowledge levels and
but our perceive knowledge levels and creating a gap there so we can see that
creating a gap there so we can see that
creating a gap there so we can see that this in congruence in our knowledge can
this in congruence in our knowledge can
this in congruence in our knowledge can lead to a lot of negative outcomes which
lead to a lot of negative outcomes which
lead to a lot of negative outcomes which leads through the question of what can
leads through the question of what can
leads through the question of what can we do unfortunately there’s not really
we do unfortunately there’s not really
we do unfortunately there’s not really any simple answer there are a couple of
any simple answer there are a couple of
any simple answer there are a couple of things that can kind of help guide us
things that can kind of help guide us
things that can kind of help guide us first what we think we know is not
first what we think we know is not
first what we think we know is not developed in a vacuum we compare
developed in a vacuum we compare
developed in a vacuum we compare ourselves to others when we think about
ourselves to others when we think about
ourselves to others when we think about how much we know it’s in comparison to
how much we know it’s in comparison to
how much we know it’s in comparison to others so thinking about who you’re
others so thinking about who you’re
others so thinking about who you’re comparing yourself
comparing yourself
comparing yourself is one of the first steps that we can
is one of the first steps that we can
is one of the first steps that we can take to figure out just how much we
take to figure out just how much we
take to figure out just how much we actually know about an issue are you
actually know about an issue are you
actually know about an issue are you comparing yourselves to peers or to
comparing yourselves to peers or to
comparing yourselves to peers or to experts are you comparing yourself to
experts are you comparing yourself to
experts are you comparing yourself to someone if you’re having a Facebook
someone if you’re having a Facebook
someone if you’re having a Facebook argument with that kind of thing
argument with that kind of thing
argument with that kind of thing second they say the first step to
second they say the first step to
second they say the first step to recovery is admitting you have a problem
recovery is admitting you have a problem
recovery is admitting you have a problem none of us are immune to these issues
none of us are immune to these issues
none of us are immune to these issues estimating our own knowledge levels is
estimating our own knowledge levels is
estimating our own knowledge levels is something because of our values because
something because of our values because
something because of our values because of different emotions that we have that
of different emotions that we have that
of different emotions that we have that is going to impact us all so simply
is going to impact us all so simply
is going to impact us all so simply accepting that at some point there will
accepting that at some point there will
accepting that at some point there will be issues that we will have these
be issues that we will have these
be issues that we will have these problems with is the first step in being
problems with is the first step in being
problems with is the first step in being able to recognize that we are maybe too
able to recognize that we are maybe too
able to recognize that we are maybe too emotionally involved to accurately
emotionally involved to accurately
emotionally involved to accurately assess our knowledge to be able to take
assess our knowledge to be able to take
assess our knowledge to be able to take a step back think about where we what we
a step back think about where we what we
a step back think about where we what we actually know and then go from there
actually know and then go from there
actually know and then go from there ultimately by being able to be more
ultimately by being able to be more
ultimately by being able to be more introspective and analyze what we
introspective and analyze what we
introspective and analyze what we actually know we’ll be able to make
actually know we’ll be able to make
actually know we’ll be able to make better decisions in our daily lives at
better decisions in our daily lives at
better decisions in our daily lives at work and then as a society as a whole
work and then as a society as a whole
work and then as a society as a whole so the challenge for all of us then is
so the challenge for all of us then is
so the challenge for all of us then is to always seek to discover the things
to always seek to discover the things
to always seek to discover the things that we don’t know that we don’t know
that we don’t know that we don’t know
that we don’t know that we don’t know thank you
thank you
thank you [Applause]
[Applause]
[Applause] [Music]
”
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