all right seventy thousand years ago we became what we are today Homo sapiens we
became what we are today Homo sapiens we
became what we are today Homo sapiens we moved on from just a human being on to
moved on from just a human being on to
moved on from just a human being on to being something that is smart something
being something that is smart something
being something that is smart something that can think in something that start
that can think in something that start
that can think in something that start to make progress and this is where we
to make progress and this is where we
to make progress and this is where we are today we started making progress for
are today we started making progress for
are today we started making progress for 70,000 years 12,000 years ago we had the
70,000 years 12,000 years ago we had the
70,000 years 12,000 years ago we had the second major revolution the first one
second major revolution the first one
second major revolution the first one was the cognitive the second one was the
was the cognitive the second one was the
was the cognitive the second one was the Agricultural Revolution so 12,000 years
Agricultural Revolution so 12,000 years
Agricultural Revolution so 12,000 years ago we decided to move on from being
ago we decided to move on from being
ago we decided to move on from being hunters and gatherers on to staying at
hunters and gatherers on to staying at
hunters and gatherers on to staying at home becoming farmers and create cities
home becoming farmers and create cities
home becoming farmers and create cities to live in larger societies and our
to live in larger societies and our
to live in larger societies and our progress exploded 500 years ago we saw
progress exploded 500 years ago we saw
progress exploded 500 years ago we saw the last the third major revolution in
the last the third major revolution in
the last the third major revolution in human history and that was the
human history and that was the
human history and that was the Scientific Revolution and pretty much
Scientific Revolution and pretty much
Scientific Revolution and pretty much everything we talked today about
everything we talked today about
everything we talked today about progress and innovation is driven by
progress and innovation is driven by
progress and innovation is driven by this 500 year change of everything and
this 500 year change of everything and
this 500 year change of everything and how we know how we deal with knowledge
how we know how we deal with knowledge
how we know how we deal with knowledge and how we experiment to distrust our
and how we experiment to distrust our
and how we experiment to distrust our intuition but basically for the last 70
intuition but basically for the last 70
intuition but basically for the last 70 thousand years we have created progress
thousand years we have created progress
thousand years we have created progress in pretty much every area of our lives
in pretty much every area of our lives
in pretty much every area of our lives and then seventy thousand years later
and then seventy thousand years later
and then seventy thousand years later today we pulled all our creative
today we pulled all our creative
today we pulled all our creative capabilities together we put everything
capabilities together we put everything
capabilities together we put everything we know together to build that one thing
we know together to build that one thing
we know together to build that one thing that would change everything forever the
that would change everything forever the
that would change everything forever the selfie stick now this is a piece of
selfie stick now this is a piece of
selfie stick now this is a piece of technology that solves a particular
technology that solves a particular
technology that solves a particular problem that pretty much no other animal
problem that pretty much no other animal
problem that pretty much no other animal has and if you imagine an an alien
has and if you imagine an an alien
has and if you imagine an an alien coming to earth and you chop would be to
coming to earth and you chop would be to
coming to earth and you chop would be to explain what a selfie stick is for this
explain what a selfie stick is for this
explain what a selfie stick is for this is not an easy job because you would
is not an easy job because you would
is not an easy job because you would have to explain that people like to take
have to explain that people like to take
have to explain that people like to take pictures of themselves and then they
pictures of themselves and then they
pictures of themselves and then they like to post these pictures online and
like to post these pictures online and
like to post these pictures online and because our arms are not long enough to
because our arms are not long enough to
because our arms are not long enough to take good pictures of ourselves we need
take good pictures of ourselves we need
take good pictures of ourselves we need this device so it solves a problem that
this device so it solves a problem that
this device so it solves a problem that only humans have and in our history
only humans have and in our history
only humans have and in our history innovation always happens when we have a
innovation always happens when we have a
innovation always happens when we have a question
question
question there’s no answer for all we have a
there’s no answer for all we have a
there’s no answer for all we have a problem that there is no solution for so
problem that there is no solution for so
problem that there is no solution for so in terms of is this the question is this
in terms of is this the question is this
in terms of is this the question is this a good idea
a good idea
a good idea well this is a specifically human idea
well this is a specifically human idea
well this is a specifically human idea that’s for sure
that’s for sure
that’s for sure another idea I want to talk about is
another idea I want to talk about is
another idea I want to talk about is this one 1927 we are in London the
this one 1927 we are in London the
this one 1927 we are in London the streets are so the on the streets of
streets are so the on the streets of
streets are so the on the streets of London our soul is so bad it’s so
London our soul is so bad it’s so
London our soul is so bad it’s so polluted that you can’t take your child
polluted that you can’t take your child
polluted that you can’t take your child outside to play now what do you do this
outside to play now what do you do this
outside to play now what do you do this is the solution to the problem it’s
is the solution to the problem it’s
is the solution to the problem it’s called the baby cage and it comes in
called the baby cage and it comes in
called the baby cage and it comes in this self-assembly box you put it
this self-assembly box you put it
this self-assembly box you put it together
together
together outside your window on the fifth floor
outside your window on the fifth floor
outside your window on the fifth floor and you see the babies happy you know
and you see the babies happy you know
and you see the babies happy you know the baby cage now when we think about
the baby cage now when we think about
the baby cage now when we think about what’s what’s a good idea and what
what’s what’s a good idea and what
what’s what’s a good idea and what drives progress for us as human beings
drives progress for us as human beings
drives progress for us as human beings what takes us from 70 thousand years ago
what takes us from 70 thousand years ago
what takes us from 70 thousand years ago to today it’s the question what is a
to today it’s the question what is a
to today it’s the question what is a good idea and how do we know this is a
good idea and how do we know this is a
good idea and how do we know this is a good idea how do we know that something
good idea how do we know that something
good idea how do we know that something is worth pursuing and other things are
is worth pursuing and other things are
is worth pursuing and other things are not today you might have a feeling that
not today you might have a feeling that
not today you might have a feeling that this is not the solution to the problem
this is not the solution to the problem
this is not the solution to the problem again the problem is the air is too bad
again the problem is the air is too bad
again the problem is the air is too bad on the streets so the solution is the
on the streets so the solution is the
on the streets so the solution is the baby cage now when we think about
baby cage now when we think about
baby cage now when we think about problems and solutions we need to ask
problems and solutions we need to ask
problems and solutions we need to ask where does it come from that we belief
where does it come from that we belief
where does it come from that we belief at some point this is a good idea a
at some point this is a good idea a
at some point this is a good idea a hundred thousand pieces sold so this was
hundred thousand pieces sold so this was
hundred thousand pieces sold so this was a commercially successful innovation but
a commercially successful innovation but
a commercially successful innovation but are we making progress by doing this
are we making progress by doing this
are we making progress by doing this stuff and how do we know today this is
stuff and how do we know today this is
stuff and how do we know today this is maybe not the solution to the problem
maybe not the solution to the problem
maybe not the solution to the problem anymore well it comes down to this big
anymore well it comes down to this big
anymore well it comes down to this big word of assumptions and this is what
word of assumptions and this is what
word of assumptions and this is what drives us we use assumptions as the
drives us we use assumptions as the
drives us we use assumptions as the building blocks of what we know about
building blocks of what we know about
building blocks of what we know about the future so everything we know
the future so everything we know
the future so everything we know everything we predict everything we
everything we predict everything we
everything we predict everything we imagine is based on assumptions in
imagine is based on assumptions in
imagine is based on assumptions in certain areas now when you want to study
certain areas now when you want to study
certain areas now when you want to study assumptions there’s a great place to go
assumptions there’s a great place to go
assumptions there’s a great place to go to that’s the church now I’m the son of
to that’s the church now I’m the son of
to that’s the church now I’m the son of a pastor so I got to see a lot from this
a pastor so I got to see a lot from this
a pastor so I got to see a lot from this church and religion and religion is
church and religion and religion is
church and religion and religion is based on very strong assumptions and
based on very strong assumptions and
based on very strong assumptions and when you live in the u.s. you get come
when you live in the u.s. you get come
when you live in the u.s. you get come across a particular type of assumption
across a particular type of assumption
across a particular type of assumption that can’t couldn’t be any stronger and
that can’t couldn’t be any stronger and
that can’t couldn’t be any stronger and this has a lot to do with how humans
this has a lot to do with how humans
this has a lot to do with how humans think about progress there are people
think about progress there are people
think about progress there are people who believe that everything has been
who believe that everything has been
who believe that everything has been created for us
created for us
created for us creationism they believe in intelligent
creationism they believe in intelligent
creationism they believe in intelligent design and many humans on this planet
design and many humans on this planet
design and many humans on this planet believe in intelligent design when it
believe in intelligent design when it
believe in intelligent design when it comes to innovation progress – we
comes to innovation progress – we
comes to innovation progress – we believe that it takes an intelligent
believe that it takes an intelligent
believe that it takes an intelligent designer to create stuff we believe that
designer to create stuff we believe that
designer to create stuff we believe that it takes creative geniuses to design
it takes creative geniuses to design
it takes creative geniuses to design what we don’t see is that there are many
what we don’t see is that there are many
what we don’t see is that there are many questions that are open about this
questions that are open about this
questions that are open about this belief now what I’m concerned with is
belief now what I’m concerned with is
belief now what I’m concerned with is not whether this is right or wrong or
not whether this is right or wrong or
not whether this is right or wrong or whether this is a good thing or not this
whether this is a good thing or not this
whether this is a good thing or not this is just the wrong question if we ask is
is just the wrong question if we ask is
is just the wrong question if we ask is this a good question I want to replace
this a good question I want to replace
this a good question I want to replace this question with the question what are
this question with the question what are
this question with the question what are the assumptions that drive our beliefs
the assumptions that drive our beliefs
the assumptions that drive our beliefs what are the assumptions the things that
what are the assumptions the things that
what are the assumptions the things that we just take for granted that we don’t
we just take for granted that we don’t
we just take for granted that we don’t question now when you think now another
question now when you think now another
question now when you think now another thought experiment just you to get to
thought experiment just you to get to
thought experiment just you to get to these assumptions imagine you are an
these assumptions imagine you are an
these assumptions imagine you are an intelligent designer right see you are
intelligent designer right see you are
intelligent designer right see you are the creator and your job is to design
the creator and your job is to design
the creator and your job is to design human beings would you design them like
human beings would you design them like
human beings would you design them like this now think about it your job is to
this now think about it your job is to
this now think about it your job is to design the men in the room
design the men in the room
design the men in the room gentlemen you might have noticed that
gentlemen you might have noticed that
gentlemen you might have noticed that you have nipples – what for if you are
you have nipples – what for if you are
you have nipples – what for if you are an intelligent designer and your job is
an intelligent designer and your job is
an intelligent designer and your job is to design the product human being why
to design the product human being why
to design the product human being why would you put things on us that we don’t
would you put things on us that we don’t
would you put things on us that we don’t need that obviously have no function and
need that obviously have no function and
need that obviously have no function and if you think further how we as human
if you think further how we as human
if you think further how we as human beings function biologically this seems
beings function biologically this seems
beings function biologically this seems to there seems to be a lot of flaws
to there seems to be a lot of flaws
to there seems to be a lot of flaws there’s some things that are kind of
there’s some things that are kind of
there’s some things that are kind of weird now you reproductive Fitness seems
weird now you reproductive Fitness seems
weird now you reproductive Fitness seems to be one of the things that you need to
to be one of the things that you need to
to be one of the things that you need to fix as an intelligent designer so you
fix as an intelligent designer so you
fix as an intelligent designer so you wanted to make sure that we survive so
wanted to make sure that we survive so
wanted to make sure that we survive so why would you put just thinking but why
why would you put just thinking but why
why would you put just thinking but why would you put the male testicles
would you put the male testicles
would you put the male testicles outside the body well these are kind of
outside the body well these are kind of
outside the body well these are kind of crucial for our survival yet you put
crucial for our survival yet you put
crucial for our survival yet you put them outside the body completely
them outside the body completely
them outside the body completely unprotected now if you’re an intelligent
unprotected now if you’re an intelligent
unprotected now if you’re an intelligent designer why would you do that
designer why would you do that
designer why would you do that now the question is not is intelligent
now the question is not is intelligent
now the question is not is intelligent design right or wrong the question is
design right or wrong the question is
design right or wrong the question is what’s behind it and I think we have a
what’s behind it and I think we have a
what’s behind it and I think we have a conception of talent behind that that’s
conception of talent behind that that’s
conception of talent behind that that’s very similar to intelligent design so we
very similar to intelligent design so we
very similar to intelligent design so we celebrate people like Elon Musk and
celebrate people like Elon Musk and
celebrate people like Elon Musk and Steve Jobs because they have something
Steve Jobs because they have something
Steve Jobs because they have something that we don’t have they have creative
that we don’t have they have creative
that we don’t have they have creative genius and we invent this strategy to
genius and we invent this strategy to
genius and we invent this strategy to think about Talent in this way
think about Talent in this way
think about Talent in this way so that we can say well I do not develop
so that we can say well I do not develop
so that we can say well I do not develop products and services and business
products and services and business
products and services and business models or generally ideas that change
models or generally ideas that change
models or generally ideas that change the world because I don’t have the
the world because I don’t have the
the world because I don’t have the talent well and this is dangerous so now
talent well and this is dangerous so now
talent well and this is dangerous so now the question is when is an assumption
the question is when is an assumption
the question is when is an assumption good for us and when is an assumption
good for us and when is an assumption
good for us and when is an assumption bad for us when we talk about innovation
bad for us when we talk about innovation
bad for us when we talk about innovation and progress we need to talk about
and progress we need to talk about
and progress we need to talk about evolution rather than revolution because
evolution rather than revolution because
evolution rather than revolution because what really happens is not that human
what really happens is not that human
what really happens is not that human history is a chain of revolutions in
history is a chain of revolutions in
history is a chain of revolutions in which a creative genius an intelligent
which a creative genius an intelligent
which a creative genius an intelligent designer created one level after the
designer created one level after the
designer created one level after the other and we are better than before
other and we are better than before
other and we are better than before really what happens is a constantly
really what happens is a constantly
really what happens is a constantly evolving system so what what does
evolving system so what what does
evolving system so what what does Charles Darwin say about evolution he
Charles Darwin say about evolution he
Charles Darwin say about evolution he says it’s not the strongest or the most
says it’s not the strongest or the most
says it’s not the strongest or the most intelligent of a species that survive
intelligent of a species that survive
intelligent of a species that survive it’s those that are most adaptable to
it’s those that are most adaptable to
it’s those that are most adaptable to change well guess what the same is true
change well guess what the same is true
change well guess what the same is true for our ideas if you think about the
for our ideas if you think about the
for our ideas if you think about the selfie stick it’s not the best it’s not
selfie stick it’s not the best it’s not
selfie stick it’s not the best it’s not the most intelligent idea that survives
the most intelligent idea that survives
the most intelligent idea that survives it’s just the one that makes sense right
it’s just the one that makes sense right
it’s just the one that makes sense right now because it solves a problem right
now because it solves a problem right
now because it solves a problem right now this is true for all our ideas and
now this is true for all our ideas and
now this is true for all our ideas and then interestingly Joss Davin also said
then interestingly Joss Davin also said
then interestingly Joss Davin also said this so this is a prediction that’s
this so this is a prediction that’s
this so this is a prediction that’s based on one of his assumptions and he
based on one of his assumptions and he
based on one of his assumptions and he was obviously wrong because a lot of
was obviously wrong because a lot of
was obviously wrong because a lot of people felt very offended by his
people felt very offended by his
people felt very offended by his theories right so the theory of
theories right so the theory of
theories right so the theory of evolution itself is not free of
evolution itself is not free of
evolution itself is not free of assumptions that don’t make sense or
assumptions that don’t make sense or
assumptions that don’t make sense or they lead to a wrong conclusion or
they lead to a wrong conclusion or
they lead to a wrong conclusion or prediction even there is an assumption
prediction even there is an assumption
prediction even there is an assumption that did not make sense so 2004 someone
that did not make sense so 2004 someone
that did not make sense so 2004 someone had another idea for a smartphone rather
had another idea for a smartphone rather
had another idea for a smartphone rather taking pictures of yourself he would
taking pictures of yourself he would
taking pictures of yourself he would throw this ha up high as high as he
throw this ha up high as high as he
throw this ha up high as high as he could that was also the name of the app
could that was also the name of the app
could that was also the name of the app it was called throw your iPhone as high
it was called throw your iPhone as high
it was called throw your iPhone as high as you can now this is a good idea just
as you can now this is a good idea just
as you can now this is a good idea just from a conceptual few point you are a
from a conceptual few point you are a
from a conceptual few point you are a creator you want to drive innovation by
creator you want to drive innovation by
creator you want to drive innovation by providing a smart phone to people and
providing a smart phone to people and
providing a smart phone to people and then their idea is to throw it as high
then their idea is to throw it as high
then their idea is to throw it as high as I can now what happens is the iPhone
as I can now what happens is the iPhone
as I can now what happens is the iPhone is in grass without gravity for a split
is in grass without gravity for a split
is in grass without gravity for a split second when it’s up in the air and from
second when it’s up in the air and from
second when it’s up in the air and from that moment it just measures the time
that moment it just measures the time
that moment it just measures the time until it reaches the bottom and from
until it reaches the bottom and from
until it reaches the bottom and from that time it knows how high it was
that time it knows how high it was
that time it knows how high it was that’s the technology behind it so what
that’s the technology behind it so what
that’s the technology behind it so what the app does you just build an
the app does you just build an
the app does you just build an international high score and make sure
international high score and make sure
international high score and make sure that people can compare themselves to
that people can compare themselves to
that people can compare themselves to everyone else in the world and now
everyone else in the world and now
everyone else in the world and now people throw up their iPhones up in the
people throw up their iPhones up in the
people throw up their iPhones up in the air as high as they can and of course
air as high as they can and of course
air as high as they can and of course many of those don’t catch the iPhones
many of those don’t catch the iPhones
many of those don’t catch the iPhones when they come back until Apple finds
when they come back until Apple finds
when they come back until Apple finds out why so many broken iphones show up
out why so many broken iphones show up
out why so many broken iphones show up at the store and ban the app now what
at the store and ban the app now what
at the store and ban the app now what happens is not the question is not is
happens is not the question is not is
happens is not the question is not is this a good idea but why do people based
this a good idea but why do people based
this a good idea but why do people based on what assumptions do people think this
on what assumptions do people think this
on what assumptions do people think this is a great idea to throw my iPhone as
is a great idea to throw my iPhone as
is a great idea to throw my iPhone as high as I can what makes us human is the
high as I can what makes us human is the
high as I can what makes us human is the real question why do human beings do
real question why do human beings do
real question why do human beings do that because there are so many
that because there are so many
that because there are so many unanswered questions around why we do
unanswered questions around why we do
unanswered questions around why we do what we do instead of asking does that
what we do instead of asking does that
what we do instead of asking does that make sense we need to ask what is it
make sense we need to ask what is it
make sense we need to ask what is it that drives our assumptions now
that drives our assumptions now
that drives our assumptions now predicting stuff is incredibly difficult
predicting stuff is incredibly difficult
predicting stuff is incredibly difficult and we’re not very good at it because it
and we’re not very good at it because it
and we’re not very good at it because it means we have to imagine something and
means we have to imagine something and
means we have to imagine something and we’re not very good at imagining stuff
we’re not very good at imagining stuff
we’re not very good at imagining stuff that we haven’t experienced we are very
that we haven’t experienced we are very
that we haven’t experienced we are very good at imagining self-driving cars
good at imagining self-driving cars
good at imagining self-driving cars because we’ve seen cars driving around
because we’ve seen cars driving around
because we’ve seen cars driving around well we can imagine being a winner of a
well we can imagine being a winner of a
well we can imagine being a winner of a lottery because we’ve all seen winners
lottery because we’ve all seen winners
lottery because we’ve all seen winners of lotteries we’re not so good imagining
of lotteries we’re not so good imagining
of lotteries we’re not so good imagining losing a lottery because we don’t see
losing a lottery because we don’t see
losing a lottery because we don’t see losses very often and that’s the purpose
losses very often and that’s the purpose
losses very often and that’s the purpose of lotteries and playing them alright so
of lotteries and playing them alright so
of lotteries and playing them alright so we can imagine being the winner and it’s
we can imagine being the winner and it’s
we can imagine being the winner and it’s a good feeling so predicting stuff is
a good feeling so predicting stuff is
a good feeling so predicting stuff is very often not driven by a very logical
very often not driven by a very logical
very often not driven by a very logical conclusion from
conclusion from
conclusion from in that we have proof for but based on
in that we have proof for but based on
in that we have proof for but based on all the stuff we believe in and there’s
all the stuff we believe in and there’s
all the stuff we believe in and there’s of course a lot of stuff that we don’t
of course a lot of stuff that we don’t
of course a lot of stuff that we don’t know so we have to believe now how do we
know so we have to believe now how do we
know so we have to believe now how do we predict and what really is a prediction
predict and what really is a prediction
predict and what really is a prediction this is the only data set I want to show
this is the only data set I want to show
this is the only data set I want to show you to show what happens in red you see
you to show what happens in red you see
you to show what happens in red you see the amount of people that drowns in
the amount of people that drowns in
the amount of people that drowns in swimming pools over here and in black
swimming pools over here and in black
swimming pools over here and in black you see the number of movies that
you see the number of movies that
you see the number of movies that Nicolas Cage’s in in a given year and
Nicolas Cage’s in in a given year and
Nicolas Cage’s in in a given year and you see the connection right so now
you see the connection right so now
you see the connection right so now what’s your conclusion now the natural
what’s your conclusion now the natural
what’s your conclusion now the natural human conclusion would be we built a
human conclusion would be we built a
human conclusion would be we built a committee and do not allow Nicolas Cage
committee and do not allow Nicolas Cage
committee and do not allow Nicolas Cage to make any more movies because
to make any more movies because
to make any more movies because obviously he’s responsible for the rise
obviously he’s responsible for the rise
obviously he’s responsible for the rise in drownings Nicolas Cage kills people
in drownings Nicolas Cage kills people
in drownings Nicolas Cage kills people in swimming pools is that the conclusion
in swimming pools is that the conclusion
in swimming pools is that the conclusion we can draw of course that but humans
we can draw of course that but humans
we can draw of course that but humans are made to see patterns we are dreamed
are made to see patterns we are dreamed
are made to see patterns we are dreamed we trained to see things that are not
we trained to see things that are not
we trained to see things that are not there and based on this thing that’s not
there and based on this thing that’s not
there and based on this thing that’s not there we build assumptions and these can
there we build assumptions and these can
there we build assumptions and these can get very strong so the conclusion here
get very strong so the conclusion here
get very strong so the conclusion here could of course be in both directions
could of course be in both directions
could of course be in both directions but the reality is there’s absolutely no
but the reality is there’s absolutely no
but the reality is there’s absolutely no connection between the two which you see
connection between the two which you see
connection between the two which you see when you look into the future and the
when you look into the future and the
when you look into the future and the past of this timeline because this is
past of this timeline because this is
past of this timeline because this is only a very narrow perspective of what’s
only a very narrow perspective of what’s
only a very narrow perspective of what’s really happening right there is no
really happening right there is no
really happening right there is no connection before and after but this
connection before and after but this
connection before and after but this looks like a correlation it really does
looks like a correlation it really does
looks like a correlation it really does not have a purpose for a meaningful
not have a purpose for a meaningful
not have a purpose for a meaningful correlation but we want to see it so we
correlation but we want to see it so we
correlation but we want to see it so we build our prediction based on data like
build our prediction based on data like
build our prediction based on data like this now this is one of my favorite
this now this is one of my favorite
this now this is one of my favorite quotes
quotes
quotes it’s from gottlieb daimler and he said
it’s from gottlieb daimler and he said
it’s from gottlieb daimler and he said that the demand for cars can’t be higher
that the demand for cars can’t be higher
that the demand for cars can’t be higher than 1 million and now this is a
than 1 million and now this is a
than 1 million and now this is a prediction he said in 1909 by the way
prediction he said in 1909 by the way
prediction he said in 1909 by the way this he said there won’t be more cars
this he said there won’t be more cars
this he said there won’t be more cars than that because there is no demand for
than that because there is no demand for
than that because there is no demand for more cars than that and his conclusion
more cars than that and his conclusion
more cars than that and his conclusion or his assumption driving this
or his assumption driving this
or his assumption driving this conclusion is because they’re not enough
conclusion is because they’re not enough
conclusion is because they’re not enough people who know how to drive a car
people who know how to drive a car
people who know how to drive a car because at the time you had to be a
because at the time you had to be a
because at the time you had to be a professional car driver but you had to
professional car driver but you had to
professional car driver but you had to be your chauffeur
be your chauffeur
be your chauffeur well of course he didn’t know that we
well of course he didn’t know that we
well of course he didn’t know that we today would develop self-driving cars so
today would develop self-driving cars so
today would develop self-driving cars so the whole basis of his argument is gone
the whole basis of his argument is gone
the whole basis of his argument is gone but what we see the problem of a
but what we see the problem of a
but what we see the problem of a prediction is usually not the prediction
prediction is usually not the prediction
prediction is usually not the prediction it’s the assumption that it’s based on
it’s the assumption that it’s based on
it’s the assumption that it’s based on so instead of working on the prediction
so instead of working on the prediction
so instead of working on the prediction we need off to start working on the
we need off to start working on the
we need off to start working on the assumptions but they are hard to find
Immanuel Kant says that enlightenment is
Immanuel Kant says that enlightenment is man’s emergence from a self-imposed
man’s emergence from a self-imposed
man’s emergence from a self-imposed immaturity and that is not nice
immaturity and that is not nice
immaturity and that is not nice so to get out of this to get better at
so to get out of this to get better at
so to get out of this to get better at finding our assumptions and building
finding our assumptions and building
finding our assumptions and building better predictions based on this we need
better predictions based on this we need
better predictions based on this we need to get our self-imposed immaturity fixed
to get our self-imposed immaturity fixed
to get our self-imposed immaturity fixed immaturity means we can’t use our mind
immaturity means we can’t use our mind
immaturity means we can’t use our mind in the way that we want to use it
in the way that we want to use it
in the way that we want to use it because other people influence what we
because other people influence what we
because other people influence what we think and this is self-imposed
think and this is self-imposed
think and this is self-imposed that means not someone else is
that means not someone else is
that means not someone else is responsible and in charge of fixing this
responsible and in charge of fixing this
responsible and in charge of fixing this but us that means we need to focus our
but us that means we need to focus our
but us that means we need to focus our minds on the beliefs that we all carry
minds on the beliefs that we all carry
minds on the beliefs that we all carry we need to focus on the assumptions that
we need to focus on the assumptions that
we need to focus on the assumptions that we have every single one of us that’s
we have every single one of us that’s
we have every single one of us that’s the job says Iman account and now that
the job says Iman account and now that
the job says Iman account and now that in the end takes one thing and that’s
in the end takes one thing and that’s
in the end takes one thing and that’s courage and courage is a little tricky
courage and courage is a little tricky
courage and courage is a little tricky now there’s a great quote from a movie
now there’s a great quote from a movie
now there’s a great quote from a movie from a Disney movie that I like it’s
from a Disney movie that I like it’s
from a Disney movie that I like it’s courage is not the absence of fear
courage is not the absence of fear
courage is not the absence of fear courage is the realization that some
courage is the realization that some
courage is the realization that some things are more important than our own
things are more important than our own
things are more important than our own fear now I have this little prediction
fear now I have this little prediction
fear now I have this little prediction journal and two months ago I wrote in
journal and two months ago I wrote in
journal and two months ago I wrote in that journal Donald Trump never gonna
that journal Donald Trump never gonna
that journal Donald Trump never gonna happen well based on what assumptions I
happen well based on what assumptions I
happen well based on what assumptions I did not look at my assumptions and of
did not look at my assumptions and of
did not look at my assumptions and of course you see that I was terribly wrong
course you see that I was terribly wrong
course you see that I was terribly wrong and so where many other people most
and so where many other people most
and so where many other people most other people but what drives our
other people but what drives our
other people but what drives our assumptions is very often that we ignore
assumptions is very often that we ignore
assumptions is very often that we ignore what we really should look at so to get
what we really should look at so to get
what we really should look at so to get to that courage instead of assuming that
to that courage instead of assuming that
to that courage instead of assuming that we are right and then looking for
we are right and then looking for
we are right and then looking for evidence for our assumption and making
evidence for our assumption and making
evidence for our assumption and making our beliefs even stronger we need to
our beliefs even stronger we need to
our beliefs even stronger we need to start questioning our own assumption
start questioning our own assumption
start questioning our own assumption and the big deal in the end will be to
and the big deal in the end will be to
and the big deal in the end will be to start always with the assumption that
start always with the assumption that
start always with the assumption that we’re wrong rather than giving in to our
we’re wrong rather than giving in to our
we’re wrong rather than giving in to our need to always be right thank you very
need to always be right thank you very
need to always be right thank you very much
”
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