I was 15 2014 I was on a train from Frankfurt to Berlin and I met a super
Frankfurt to Berlin and I met a super
Frankfurt to Berlin and I met a super interesting person we had a fantastic
interesting person we had a fantastic
interesting person we had a fantastic conversation and we talked about
conversation and we talked about
conversation and we talked about everything about books about physics
everything about books about physics
everything about books about physics about lots of different things and after
about lots of different things and after
about lots of different things and after some time after 2 hours approximately
some time after 2 hours approximately
some time after 2 hours approximately this person asked me what do you do and
this person asked me what do you do and
this person asked me what do you do and I told him I’m an economist and his
I told him I’m an economist and his
I told him I’m an economist and his first reaction was but why you see smart
first reaction was but why you see smart
first reaction was but why you see smart why aren’t you something useful like an
why aren’t you something useful like an
why aren’t you something useful like an engineer or something like that and then
engineer or something like that and then
engineer or something like that and then I told him no no but I’m also
I told him no no but I’m also
I told him no no but I’m also astrophysicist because I graduated
astrophysicist because I graduated
astrophysicist because I graduated astrophysics before getting into grad
astrophysics before getting into grad
astrophysics before getting into grad school for economics and I felt really
school for economics and I felt really
school for economics and I felt really bad after after that conversation I
bad after after that conversation I
bad after after that conversation I basically I did not what I you know I
basically I did not what I you know I
basically I did not what I you know I was astrophysicists but why would I have
was astrophysicists but why would I have
was astrophysicists but why would I have to justify myself for spending 6 years
to justify myself for spending 6 years
to justify myself for spending 6 years in grad school doing lots of work
in grad school doing lots of work
in grad school doing lots of work learning about lots of different
learning about lots of different
learning about lots of different scientific methods doing lots of
scientific methods doing lots of
scientific methods doing lots of freezers doing lots of teaching and then
freezers doing lots of teaching and then
freezers doing lots of teaching and then at the end I have to just justify to a
at the end I have to just justify to a
at the end I have to just justify to a person on a train for being an economist
person on a train for being an economist
person on a train for being an economist a fee feeling bad after that when I told
a fee feeling bad after that when I told
a fee feeling bad after that when I told him so now I think that in Germany when
him so now I think that in Germany when
him so now I think that in Germany when you mention an economist people start
you mention an economist people start
you mention an economist people start getting some impressions and in the u.s.
getting some impressions and in the u.s.
getting some impressions and in the u.s. these impressions are quite different
these impressions are quite different
these impressions are quite different and German public probably doesn’t even
and German public probably doesn’t even
and German public probably doesn’t even know who are these people even though
know who are these people even though
know who are these people even though their Nobel prize-winning economists and
their Nobel prize-winning economists and
their Nobel prize-winning economists and I believe there are many reasons why
I believe there are many reasons why
I believe there are many reasons why Germany has a very different than
Germany has a very different than
Germany has a very different than particular view on the
particular view on the
particular view on the Animists compared to for example us when
Animists compared to for example us when
Animists compared to for example us when you say that you are an economist people
you say that you are an economist people
you say that you are an economist people think okay
think okay
think okay this guy is kind of smart that’s
this guy is kind of smart that’s
this guy is kind of smart that’s basically the same thing this physicists
basically the same thing this physicists
basically the same thing this physicists do but receives a paycheck which is
do but receives a paycheck which is
do but receives a paycheck which is double in size so they think you are
double in size so they think you are
double in size so they think you are kind of even cooler than a physicist but
kind of even cooler than a physicist but
kind of even cooler than a physicist but in Germany when you say that you are an
in Germany when you say that you are an
in Germany when you say that you are an economist the perception is very very
economist the perception is very very
economist the perception is very very different in a sense I was pretty
different in a sense I was pretty
different in a sense I was pretty ashamed of being an economist in Germany
ashamed of being an economist in Germany
ashamed of being an economist in Germany I believe that we can even by using an
I believe that we can even by using an
I believe that we can even by using an economic theory we can explain why is
economic theory we can explain why is
economic theory we can explain why is this to some extent at least one of the
this to some extent at least one of the
this to some extent at least one of the reasons I believe is hidden behind an
reasons I believe is hidden behind an
reasons I believe is hidden behind an economic theory which won a Nobel Prize
economic theory which won a Nobel Prize
economic theory which won a Nobel Prize to George Akerlof which is about the
to George Akerlof which is about the
to George Akerlof which is about the adverse selection if an audience is not
adverse selection if an audience is not
adverse selection if an audience is not aware who are lamins who are peaches you
aware who are lamins who are peaches you
aware who are lamins who are peaches you will tend to offer an average price and
will tend to offer an average price and
will tend to offer an average price and then if you offer an average price you
then if you offer an average price you
then if you offer an average price you will end up by only laments actually
will end up by only laments actually
will end up by only laments actually accepting this price because peaches you
accepting this price because peaches you
accepting this price because peaches you know their Nobel prize-winning economist
know their Nobel prize-winning economist
know their Nobel prize-winning economist is difficult to get him to speak on TV
is difficult to get him to speak on TV
is difficult to get him to speak on TV in Germany they’re expensive so at the
in Germany they’re expensive so at the
in Germany they’re expensive so at the end these lemons drive out peaches out
end these lemons drive out peaches out
end these lemons drive out peaches out of the market and this is what is called
of the market and this is what is called
of the market and this is what is called the adverse selection now but this goes
the adverse selection now but this goes
the adverse selection now but this goes really far German society let’s go back
really far German society let’s go back
really far German society let’s go back to August 22nd 2014 Nobel in the
to August 22nd 2014 Nobel in the
to August 22nd 2014 Nobel in the meetings
meetings
meetings German Chancellor speaking in front of
German Chancellor speaking in front of
German Chancellor speaking in front of the eleven nobel prize-winning
the eleven nobel prize-winning
the eleven nobel prize-winning economists and more than 400 economists
economists and more than 400 economists
economists and more than 400 economists from all around the planet and giving a
from all around the planet and giving a
from all around the planet and giving a statement that she doesn’t believe to
statement that she doesn’t believe to
statement that she doesn’t believe to economists without getting into too much
economists without getting into too much
economists without getting into too much details but i believe that one of the
details but i believe that one of the
details but i believe that one of the reasons is that she doesn’t distinguish
reasons is that she doesn’t distinguish
reasons is that she doesn’t distinguish between lemons and peaches now the goal
between lemons and peaches now the goal
between lemons and peaches now the goal of this lecture is actually I will talk
of this lecture is actually I will talk
of this lecture is actually I will talk about three completely different stories
about three completely different stories
about three completely different stories so this is an omnibus of three different
so this is an omnibus of three different
so this is an omnibus of three different stories and in these three different
stories and in these three different
stories and in these three different stories I will actually try to tell you
stories I will actually try to tell you
stories I will actually try to tell you what economics is about and actually
what economics is about and actually
what economics is about and actually that is about the economic methods that
that is about the economic methods that
that is about the economic methods that people are using and that it’s actually
people are using and that it’s actually
people are using and that it’s actually a real hard science
a real hard science
a real hard science and that by using and developing these
and that by using and developing these
and that by using and developing these complicated scientific stools economies
complicated scientific stools economies
complicated scientific stools economies tend to sometimes at least ask very
tend to sometimes at least ask very
tend to sometimes at least ask very interesting questions so I will first
interesting questions so I will first
interesting questions so I will first start talking about promises what’s the
start talking about promises what’s the
start talking about promises what’s the best way to start talking about promises
best way to start talking about promises
best way to start talking about promises then by making some promises so I will
then by making some promises so I will
then by making some promises so I will promise some things I will tell you how
promise some things I will tell you how
promise some things I will tell you how to eat insects I will tell you how to
to eat insects I will tell you how to
to eat insects I will tell you how to see true nuances I will tell you how to
see true nuances I will tell you how to
see true nuances I will tell you how to leverage your talent I will show you how
leverage your talent I will show you how
leverage your talent I will show you how to foster compassion and I will show you
to foster compassion and I will show you
to foster compassion and I will show you the face of God and then I will ask you
the face of God and then I will ask you
the face of God and then I will ask you don’t do believe me well note one thing
don’t do believe me well note one thing
don’t do believe me well note one thing there’s one interesting phenomena that
there’s one interesting phenomena that
there’s one interesting phenomena that they actually show them the previous
they actually show them the previous
they actually show them the previous slides and this is the tip all these
slides and this is the tip all these
slides and this is the tip all these sentences I used future tense in order
sentences I used future tense in order
sentences I used future tense in order to promise to make a promise which makes
to promise to make a promise which makes
to promise to make a promise which makes it easy actually to analyze in a text so
it easy actually to analyze in a text so
it easy actually to analyze in a text so by using one of the fastest
by using one of the fastest
by using one of the fastest supercomputers in the world at that time
supercomputers in the world at that time
supercomputers in the world at that time that was in back in 2006 this is a Mayan
that was in back in 2006 this is a Mayan
that was in back in 2006 this is a Mayan awesome this is a 10000 processor
awesome this is a 10000 processor
awesome this is a 10000 processor computer when it was built it was the
computer when it was built it was the
computer when it was built it was the fastest computer in the world
fastest computer in the world
fastest computer in the world supercomputer in the world currently is
supercomputer in the world currently is
supercomputer in the world currently is probably in the top 300 or 500 but it’s
probably in the top 300 or 500 but it’s
probably in the top 300 or 500 but it’s probably still the most beautiful one
probably still the most beautiful one
probably still the most beautiful one it’s actually located in one Church in
it’s actually located in one Church in
it’s actually located in one Church in Barcelona and has a cooling coming from
Barcelona and has a cooling coming from
Barcelona and has a cooling coming from a swimming pool which looks like it was
a swimming pool which looks like it was
a swimming pool which looks like it was built in Roman times now what did I do
built in Roman times now what did I do
built in Roman times now what did I do well I wanted to check that there is a
well I wanted to check that there is a
well I wanted to check that there is a relationship between the number of
relationship between the number of
relationship between the number of promises that people make and the
promises that people make and the
promises that people make and the subsequent performance so I basically
subsequent performance so I basically
subsequent performance so I basically took all annual reports of full American
took all annual reports of full American
took all annual reports of full American components we are talking about millions
components we are talking about millions
components we are talking about millions and millions of annual reports that
and millions of annual reports that
and millions of annual reports that companies filled with the Securities and
companies filled with the Securities and
companies filled with the Securities and Exchange Commission and I wanted to see
Exchange Commission and I wanted to see
Exchange Commission and I wanted to see whether companies that promise more do
whether companies that promise more do
whether companies that promise more do worse or better than those that promise
worse or better than those that promise
worse or better than those that promise less and it turns out if you start with
less and it turns out if you start with
less and it turns out if you start with 100 dollars and invest in two companies
100 dollars and invest in two companies
100 dollars and invest in two companies that promise the least compared to those
that promise the least compared to those
that promise the least compared to those that promise the most you will end up
that promise the most you will end up
that promise the most you will end up with profits which are almost three
with profits which are almost three
with profits which are almost three times larger than what you would expect
times larger than what you would expect
times larger than what you would expect but you know economic method or finance
but you know economic method or finance
but you know economic method or finance method does not stop there
method does not stop there
method does not stop there economists know about experiments as
economists know about experiments as
economists know about experiments as well so what I did is I did an
well so what I did is I did an
well so what I did is I did an experiment I selected a group of
experiment I selected a group of
experiment I selected a group of students and to these students I wanted
students and to these students I wanted
students and to these students I wanted to sell vacations in Caribbeans so
to sell vacations in Caribbeans so
to sell vacations in Caribbeans so basically took the advertisements of
basically took the advertisements of
basically took the advertisements of travel agencies about two different
travel agencies about two different
travel agencies about two different vacation packages and Caribbeans
vacation packages and Caribbeans
vacation packages and Caribbeans and to the control group I gave them the
and to the control group I gave them the
and to the control group I gave them the advertisement that look kind of similar
advertisement that look kind of similar
advertisement that look kind of similar and turned out the students prefer
and turned out the students prefer
and turned out the students prefer slightly the ad of agency be compared to
slightly the ad of agency be compared to
slightly the ad of agency be compared to agency a so more students would opt for
agency a so more students would opt for
agency a so more students would opt for a vacation of agency B then in a three
a vacation of agency B then in a three
a vacation of agency B then in a three days group what I did is I changed the
days group what I did is I changed the
days group what I did is I changed the ad of ABC B so that every statement that
ad of ABC B so that every statement that
ad of ABC B so that every statement that was made in a past tense was translated
was made in a past tense was translated
was made in a past tense was translated into future terms like a promise so
into future terms like a promise so
into future terms like a promise so instead of saying our customers have
instead of saying our customers have
instead of saying our customers have enjoyed beautiful beaches I change it to
enjoyed beautiful beaches I change it to
enjoyed beautiful beaches I change it to our customers will enjoy beautiful
our customers will enjoy beautiful
our customers will enjoy beautiful beaches and what we observe is that
beaches and what we observe is that
beaches and what we observe is that students suddenly start disliking
students suddenly start disliking
students suddenly start disliking at least large portion of them start
at least large portion of them start
at least large portion of them start disliking the advertisement which is
disliking the advertisement which is
disliking the advertisement which is making explicit promises and what was
making explicit promises and what was
making explicit promises and what was going to happen in the future but you
going to happen in the future but you
going to happen in the future but you know promises are a phenomena that is
know promises are a phenomena that is
know promises are a phenomena that is not new promises exists basically since
not new promises exists basically since
not new promises exists basically since ever and there is even a book about the
ever and there is even a book about the
ever and there is even a book about the promises in Shakespeare’s works and I
promises in Shakespeare’s works and I
promises in Shakespeare’s works and I think it’s actually a good moment to
think it’s actually a good moment to
think it’s actually a good moment to talk about one shaksperean character as
talk about one shaksperean character as
talk about one shaksperean character as Brian Trenton the lead character of
Brian Trenton the lead character of
Brian Trenton the lead character of Breaking Bad’s recently said we have
Breaking Bad’s recently said we have
Breaking Bad’s recently said we have lots of experienced characters in
lots of experienced characters in
lots of experienced characters in politics
and they tend to talk a lot about the
and they tend to talk a lot about the future they tend to talk make many
future they tend to talk make many
future they tend to talk make many promises like I will make everything
promises like I will make everything
promises like I will make everything great everything will be great
great everything will be great
great everything will be great everything will be perfect I will build
everything will be perfect I will build
everything will be perfect I will build a great wall everything will be perfect
a great wall everything will be perfect
a great wall everything will be perfect America will be great again so can we
America will be great again so can we
America will be great again so can we say something about the outcome of the
say something about the outcome of the
say something about the outcome of the u.s. presidential elections then look by
u.s. presidential elections then look by
u.s. presidential elections then look by looking into promises that American
looking into promises that American
looking into promises that American presidential candidates make it turns
presidential candidates make it turns
presidential candidates make it turns out that in every basically almost every
out that in every basically almost every
out that in every basically almost every only one with only one exception
only one with only one exception
only one with only one exception candidate make fewer promises one
candidate make fewer promises one
candidate make fewer promises one majority of votes so less you promise
majority of votes so less you promise
majority of votes so less you promise better you do on the American elections
better you do on the American elections
better you do on the American elections now you can ask me so if this is a
now you can ask me so if this is a
now you can ask me so if this is a science can you make some prediction so
science can you make some prediction so
science can you make some prediction so who’s gonna win the presidential
who’s gonna win the presidential
who’s gonna win the presidential elections next week well you know this
elections next week well you know this
elections next week well you know this is a difficult question but you know
is a difficult question but you know
is a difficult question but you know econometrics which is which is part of
econometrics which is which is part of
econometrics which is which is part of economic science can help us why what’s
economic science can help us why what’s
economic science can help us why what’s the problem well the problem is there
the problem well the problem is there
the problem well the problem is there are many different things that are
are many different things that are
are many different things that are influencing the outcome of presidential
influencing the outcome of presidential
influencing the outcome of presidential elections like how did the economy do
elections like how did the economy do
elections like how did the economy do last year or some people claim that – or
last year or some people claim that – or
last year or some people claim that – or presidential candidate and the one with
presidential candidate and the one with
presidential candidate and the one with more here will win the elections
more here will win the elections
more here will win the elections obviously I would never win the election
obviously I would never win the election
obviously I would never win the election in this case but we can disentangle all
in this case but we can disentangle all
in this case but we can disentangle all these effects using statistical tools
these effects using statistical tools
these effects using statistical tools developed in econometrics and it turns
developed in econometrics and it turns
developed in econometrics and it turns out that actually I can’t give you a
out that actually I can’t give you a
out that actually I can’t give you a prediction and it turns out that my
prediction and it turns out that my
prediction and it turns out that my prediction is that Trump will lose the
prediction is that Trump will lose the
prediction is that Trump will lose the elections because he’s promising a lot
elections because he’s promising a lot
elections because he’s promising a lot more than Hillary does because I feel
more than Hillary does because I feel
more than Hillary does because I feel make everything great again everything
make everything great again everything
make everything great again everything right so what’s the message of this
right so what’s the message of this
right so what’s the message of this lecture well it depends who are you
lecture well it depends who are you
lecture well it depends who are you talking to
talking to
talking to first message would be there are two
first message would be there are two
first message would be there are two groups of people those that notice that
groups of people those that notice that
groups of people those that notice that people that promise a lot do worse and
people that promise a lot do worse and
people that promise a lot do worse and those that do not
those that do not
those that do not well those
well those
well those that do not notice actually can learn
that do not notice actually can learn
that do not notice actually can learn something from this lecture and start
something from this lecture and start
something from this lecture and start doubting when they see when people talk
doubting when they see when people talk
doubting when they see when people talk a lot and move promises about the future
a lot and move promises about the future
a lot and move promises about the future second is you know advertising agencies
second is you know advertising agencies
second is you know advertising agencies or any company that wants to talk about
or any company that wants to talk about
or any company that wants to talk about the future well they should think twice
the future well they should think twice
the future well they should think twice before making lots of promises now I
before making lots of promises now I
before making lots of promises now I move to Story number two I told you I
move to Story number two I told you I
move to Story number two I told you I will show you the face of God but before
will show you the face of God but before
will show you the face of God but before I do that I will show you one social
I do that I will show you one social
I do that I will show you one social network this is a social network of
network this is a social network of
network this is a social network of characters in the book on a kyrenia so
characters in the book on a kyrenia so
characters in the book on a kyrenia so curt two characters are connected if
curt two characters are connected if
curt two characters are connected if they know each other in a book and the
they know each other in a book and the
they know each other in a book and the larger the circle is the more connection
larger the circle is the more connection
larger the circle is the more connection it has done actually on this movie you
it has done actually on this movie you
it has done actually on this movie you can see a circle denoted Anna Karenina
can see a circle denoted Anna Karenina
can see a circle denoted Anna Karenina which is kind of the large circle in the
which is kind of the large circle in the
which is kind of the large circle in the network now today when you mention
network now today when you mention
network now today when you mention social network people usually think of
social network people usually think of
social network people usually think of Facebook people usually think of Twitter
Facebook people usually think of Twitter
Facebook people usually think of Twitter and these kind of social networks but
and these kind of social networks but
and these kind of social networks but social network Shipman studied in
social network Shipman studied in
social network Shipman studied in Economic Sciences
Economic Sciences
Economic Sciences long time ago before Facebook existed
long time ago before Facebook existed
long time ago before Facebook existed then I encountered one study in this
then I encountered one study in this
then I encountered one study in this study a group of mathematicians
study a group of mathematicians
study a group of mathematicians reconstructed the network of who knows
reconstructed the network of who knows
reconstructed the network of who knows who in Moreau comics Superman spider-man
who in Moreau comics Superman spider-man
who in Moreau comics Superman spider-man in these kind of characters and that
in these kind of characters and that
in these kind of characters and that mathematicians and mathematicians wanted
mathematicians and mathematicians wanted
mathematicians and mathematicians wanted to say something about this network and
to say something about this network and
to say something about this network and they said there is a statistical
they said there is a statistical
they said there is a statistical property which is called clustering
property which is called clustering
property which is called clustering coefficient which is actually very easy
coefficient which is actually very easy
coefficient which is actually very easy concept it is a probability that the
concept it is a probability that the
concept it is a probability that the friend of my friend is my friend too in
friend of my friend is my friend too in
friend of my friend is my friend too in other words if Batman and Superman are
other words if Batman and Superman are
other words if Batman and Superman are friends and spider-man is Superman’s
friends and spider-man is Superman’s
friends and spider-man is Superman’s friends what is the probability that he
friends what is the probability that he
friends what is the probability that he is also Batman’s friend in real social
is also Batman’s friend in real social
is also Batman’s friend in real social networks this probability is around 30%
networks this probability is around 30%
networks this probability is around 30% well it turns out that in Marvel Comics
well it turns out that in Marvel Comics
well it turns out that in Marvel Comics this probability is very far off what we
this probability is very far off what we
this probability is very far off what we observe in real life
observe in real life
observe in real life and these mathematicians conclude that
and these mathematicians conclude that
and these mathematicians conclude that by looking at clustering coefficient we
by looking at clustering coefficient we
by looking at clustering coefficient we can distinguish fiction from the reality
can distinguish fiction from the reality
can distinguish fiction from the reality when I read this research paper my
when I read this research paper my
when I read this research paper my obvious thought was who cares you know
obvious thought was who cares you know
obvious thought was who cares you know we know that Marvel Comics the Marvel
we know that Marvel Comics the Marvel
we know that Marvel Comics the Marvel Comics is a fiction so I wanted to ask a
Comics is a fiction so I wanted to ask a
Comics is a fiction so I wanted to ask a question where we are not actually sure
question where we are not actually sure
question where we are not actually sure what’s the truth so what I did is I
what’s the truth so what I did is I
what’s the truth so what I did is I started looking at the Bible so I wanted
started looking at the Bible so I wanted
started looking at the Bible so I wanted to reconstruct a network of characters
to reconstruct a network of characters
to reconstruct a network of characters in the Bible and to study the structure
in the Bible and to study the structure
in the Bible and to study the structure of the network in the Bible so this is
of the network in the Bible so this is
of the network in the Bible so this is one page taken from one Bible and you
one page taken from one Bible and you
one page taken from one Bible and you can see that some names were mentioned
can see that some names were mentioned
can see that some names were mentioned we have powerful enough computers that
we have powerful enough computers that
we have powerful enough computers that you can actually detect the names in the
you can actually detect the names in the
you can actually detect the names in the text and we can we can somehow establish
text and we can we can somehow establish
text and we can we can somehow establish relationships between different
relationships between different
relationships between different characters in the Bible so what you can
characters in the Bible so what you can
characters in the Bible so what you can see here is that for example one measure
see here is that for example one measure
see here is that for example one measure of who knows who could be two characters
of who knows who could be two characters
of who knows who could be two characters know each other if they are in the same
know each other if they are in the same
know each other if they are in the same verse if one does that one gets a
verse if one does that one gets a
verse if one does that one gets a network of the Bible I promise to show
network of the Bible I promise to show
network of the Bible I promise to show you the face of God and you can actually
you the face of God and you can actually
you the face of God and you can actually see God on this network you can see also
see God on this network you can see also
see God on this network you can see also Jacob you can see Satan you can see
Jacob you can see Satan you can see
Jacob you can see Satan you can see Jesus you can see all characters that
Jesus you can see all characters that
Jesus you can see all characters that appear in the Bible in this network well
appear in the Bible in this network well
appear in the Bible in this network well there are many results that pop out of
there are many results that pop out of
there are many results that pop out of this research of mine first interesting
this research of mine first interesting
this research of mine first interesting result is for example how do you define
result is for example how do you define
result is for example how do you define a relationship how do you define who is
a relationship how do you define who is
a relationship how do you define who is connected to whom well you can say two
connected to whom well you can say two
connected to whom well you can say two characters are connected if they are in
characters are connected if they are in
characters are connected if they are in the same words but you can also say two
the same words but you can also say two
the same words but you can also say two characters are connected if they are in
characters are connected if they are in
characters are connected if they are in the same chapter this kind of they don’t
the same chapter this kind of they don’t
the same chapter this kind of they don’t really know each other but they have met
really know each other but they have met
really know each other but they have met somewhere if you introduce this kind of
somewhere if you introduce this kind of
somewhere if you introduce this kind of connections it turns out that the most
connections it turns out that the most
connections it turns out that the most popular character in the Bible is singer
popular character in the Bible is singer
popular character in the Bible is singer of King Solomon I call him a Michael
of King Solomon I call him a Michael
of King Solomon I call him a Michael Jackson of a Bible he kind of he was in
Jackson of a Bible he kind of he was in
Jackson of a Bible he kind of he was in big concerts and stuff and he knows lots
big concerts and stuff and he knows lots
big concerts and stuff and he knows lots of people but he knows the only
of people but he knows the only
of people but he knows the only superficially but then in essence he is
superficially but then in essence he is
superficially but then in essence he is lonely because if you define a
lonely because if you define a
lonely because if you define a relationship more closely he’s basically
relationship more closely he’s basically
relationship more closely he’s basically very very unconnected like that now you
very very unconnected like that now you
very very unconnected like that now you cannot ask me so is there a god well
cannot ask me so is there a god well
cannot ask me so is there a god well this is out of domain of this research I
this is out of domain of this research I
this is out of domain of this research I don’t try to answer whether there is a
don’t try to answer whether there is a
don’t try to answer whether there is a God or there is no God but you can ask
God or there is no God but you can ask
God or there is no God but you can ask me whether this network looks like real
me whether this network looks like real
me whether this network looks like real social networks that we can observe
social networks that we can observe
social networks that we can observe today or we could have had observed in
today or we could have had observed in
today or we could have had observed in history well I can
history well I can
history well I can this probability is very low this
this probability is very low this
this probability is very low this network looks very unlike real social
network looks very unlike real social
network looks very unlike real social networks probability that the friend of
networks probability that the friend of
networks probability that the friend of my friend is my friend too in the Bible
my friend is my friend too in the Bible
my friend is my friend too in the Bible is for example 98 percent there are
is for example 98 percent there are
is for example 98 percent there are simply too many artifacts in the Bible
simply too many artifacts in the Bible
simply too many artifacts in the Bible there’s too many 7 kings and no 6 kings
there’s too many 7 kings and no 6 kings
there’s too many 7 kings and no 6 kings there are too many three brothers and
there are too many three brothers and
there are too many three brothers and there are simply no 2 or 4 brothers the
there are simply no 2 or 4 brothers the
there are simply no 2 or 4 brothers the network looks in a bit a bit different
network looks in a bit a bit different
network looks in a bit a bit different than real society – I don’t know move to
than real society – I don’t know move to
than real society – I don’t know move to the third storey I will talk to you
the third storey I will talk to you
the third storey I will talk to you about the game of hide-and-seek
about the game of hide-and-seek
about the game of hide-and-seek he’s a kid I hated the game of
he’s a kid I hated the game of
he’s a kid I hated the game of hide-and-seek I couldn’t stand it even
hide-and-seek I couldn’t stand it even
hide-and-seek I couldn’t stand it even though this is the most popular game
though this is the most popular game
though this is the most popular game that kids play all around our planet it
that kids play all around our planet it
that kids play all around our planet it is played in every country in the world
is played in every country in the world
is played in every country in the world it is by far the most popular game that
it is by far the most popular game that
it is by far the most popular game that kids play on our planet but there’s a
kids play on our planet but there’s a
kids play on our planet but there’s a kid I hated it I couldn’t play it and
kid I hated it I couldn’t play it and
kid I hated it I couldn’t play it and the reason why I could not play it it’s
the reason why I could not play it it’s
the reason why I could not play it it’s simple there were basically two set of
simple there were basically two set of
simple there were basically two set of rules the next person that is going to
rules the next person that is going to
rules the next person that is going to see can search for other kids is going
see can search for other kids is going
see can search for other kids is going to be the first one that is discovered
to be the first one that is discovered
to be the first one that is discovered or in an alternative set of rules it
or in an alternative set of rules it
or in an alternative set of rules it would be the last one that was
would be the last one that was
would be the last one that was discovered that is going to be the next
discovered that is going to be the next
discovered that is going to be the next seek now I had a problem with that as a
seek now I had a problem with that as a
seek now I had a problem with that as a kid and my problem was that first in the
kid and my problem was that first in the
kid and my problem was that first in the first version after the first person is
first version after the first person is
first version after the first person is discovered you know he’s the next seeker
discovered you know he’s the next seeker
discovered you know he’s the next seeker why would you continue playing this game
why would you continue playing this game
why would you continue playing this game this is like imagine you play football
this is like imagine you play football
this is like imagine you play football you play 19 minutes and the rules are
you play 19 minutes and the rules are
you play 19 minutes and the rules are such that the one that scores the first
such that the one that scores the first
such that the one that scores the first Vince but you still continue playing 90
Vince but you still continue playing 90
Vince but you still continue playing 90 minutes it simply makes no sense in the
minutes it simply makes no sense in the
minutes it simply makes no sense in the second set of rules you’re punishing the
second set of rules you’re punishing the
second set of rules you’re punishing the best hidden one so you’re basically the
best hidden one so you’re basically the
best hidden one so you’re basically the last one that is discovered is going to
last one that is discovered is going to
last one that is discovered is going to be the next seeker so you are punishing
be the next seeker so you are punishing
be the next seeker so you are punishing the person with his key to hit himself
the person with his key to hit himself
the person with his key to hit himself the best it made no sense to me and this
the best it made no sense to me and this
the best it made no sense to me and this is a kid I hated this game I never
is a kid I hated this game I never
is a kid I hated this game I never wanted to play it you know other kids
wanted to play it you know other kids
wanted to play it you know other kids were playing I said no I don’t play this
were playing I said no I don’t play this
were playing I said no I don’t play this game
game
game it makes no sense so in my grad school
it makes no sense so in my grad school
it makes no sense so in my grad school when I did my PhD in economics I learned
when I did my PhD in economics I learned
when I did my PhD in economics I learned about the game theory and the game
about the game theory and the game
about the game theory and the game theory is a field of microeconomics in
theory is a field of microeconomics in
theory is a field of microeconomics in which basically almost any human
which basically almost any human
which basically almost any human interaction can be represented as a game
interaction can be represented as a game
interaction can be represented as a game and the game of seek is one of them so I
and the game of seek is one of them so I
and the game of seek is one of them so I decided to use the tools of
decided to use the tools of
decided to use the tools of microeconomics and the game theory to
microeconomics and the game theory to
microeconomics and the game theory to modify this game to make it have sense
modify this game to make it have sense
modify this game to make it have sense to make it reasonable so what did I do
to make it reasonable so what did I do
to make it reasonable so what did I do well I needed to fix some problems there
well I needed to fix some problems there
well I needed to fix some problems there was a problem of uncertainty and there
was a problem of uncertainty and there
was a problem of uncertainty and there was problem of injustice so how do they
was problem of injustice so how do they
was problem of injustice so how do they do solve these problems well I told kids
do solve these problems well I told kids
do solve these problems well I told kids when they play the game at the end of
when they play the game at the end of
when they play the game at the end of the game they roll the dice if the dice
the game they roll the dice if the dice
the game they roll the dice if the dice s number three then the third one that
s number three then the third one that
s number three then the third one that was discovered gets to be the next seek
was discovered gets to be the next seek
was discovered gets to be the next seek by this problem we have solved
by this problem we have solved
by this problem we have solved uncertainty so until the end they don’t
uncertainty so until the end they don’t
uncertainty so until the end they don’t know who is the next seeker and there is
know who is the next seeker and there is
know who is the next seeker and there is no injustice because the dice decides
no injustice because the dice decides
no injustice because the dice decides dice is not in just by construction so I
dice is not in just by construction so I
dice is not in just by construction so I wanted to test my theory I you know what
wanted to test my theory I you know what
wanted to test my theory I you know what theory is not a theory if it’s not
theory is not a theory if it’s not
theory is not a theory if it’s not testable it might be some kind of a
testable it might be some kind of a
testable it might be some kind of a hypothesis but unless you test it then
hypothesis but unless you test it then
hypothesis but unless you test it then you prove that you were right it’s
you prove that you were right it’s
you prove that you were right it’s really not a tear it is in the best case
really not a tear it is in the best case
really not a tear it is in the best case hypothesis so I wanted to test this
hypothesis so I wanted to test this
hypothesis so I wanted to test this hypothesis so what’s the goal of this
hypothesis so what’s the goal of this
hypothesis so what’s the goal of this game in my view it would be to make kids
game in my view it would be to make kids
game in my view it would be to make kids happier so I went and talked to lots of
happier so I went and talked to lots of
happier so I went and talked to lots of kids and I asked kids to play again in a
kids and I asked kids to play again in a
kids and I asked kids to play again in a certain way and then I taught them how
certain way and then I taught them how
certain way and then I taught them how to modify the game properly and I
to modify the game properly and I
to modify the game properly and I measured their happiness by the old set
measured their happiness by the old set
measured their happiness by the old set of rules and by the new set of rules
of rules and by the new set of rules
of rules and by the new set of rules that I gave them with the wrong of the
that I gave them with the wrong of the
that I gave them with the wrong of the dice but now how do you measure
dice but now how do you measure
dice but now how do you measure happiness of kids well you know
happiness of kids well you know
happiness of kids well you know psychologists would probably do some
psychologists would probably do some
psychologists would probably do some interviews they would do some kind of
interviews they would do some kind of
interviews they would do some kind of questioning years with kids and that’s
questioning years with kids and that’s
questioning years with kids and that’s fine I did that
fine I did that
fine I did that but as an economist I wanted to have an
but as an economist I wanted to have an
but as an economist I wanted to have an objective measure of happiness now how
objective measure of happiness now how
objective measure of happiness now how do you objectively measure happiness
do you objectively measure happiness
do you objectively measure happiness well I’m a father of four kids and what
well I’m a father of four kids and what
well I’m a father of four kids and what I have noticed is that when my kid is
I have noticed is that when my kid is
I have noticed is that when my kid is loud he’s usually happy so what I did is
loud he’s usually happy so what I did is
loud he’s usually happy so what I did is I try to measure noise that the kids
I try to measure noise that the kids
I try to measure noise that the kids produce while they’re actually playing
produce while they’re actually playing
produce while they’re actually playing this game it turned out that controlling
this game it turned out that controlling
this game it turned out that controlling for fights because you know they can be
for fights because you know they can be
for fights because you know they can be noisier when they are actually fighting
noisier when they are actually fighting
noisier when they are actually fighting so I kicked out all the measurements
so I kicked out all the measurements
so I kicked out all the measurements when kids were fighting it turned out
when kids were fighting it turned out
when kids were fighting it turned out that kids tend to be noisier meaning
that kids tend to be noisier meaning
that kids tend to be noisier meaning happier in my world then they actually
happier in my world then they actually
happier in my world then they actually play the rule according to the rule play
play the rule according to the rule play
play the rule according to the rule play the game according to the rules that
the game according to the rules that
the game according to the rules that make sense from the economic theory
make sense from the economic theory
make sense from the economic theory perspective so what is the point of this
perspective so what is the point of this
perspective so what is the point of this talk one would be there to be an
talk one would be there to be an
talk one would be there to be an economist in spite of the fact that some
economist in spite of the fact that some
economist in spite of the fact that some people won’t be able to distinguish
people won’t be able to distinguish
people won’t be able to distinguish between lemons and peaches well I’m an
between lemons and peaches well I’m an
between lemons and peaches well I’m an economist and I don’t want to be ashamed
economist and I don’t want to be ashamed
economist and I don’t want to be ashamed of
of
of [Applause]
”
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