Can We Engineer Social Ecosystems? | Kevin Esvelt | TEDxCambridgeSalon

[Applause]

[Applause] so let’s start with a very important

so let’s start with a very important

so let’s start with a very important question when should we attempt to

question when should we attempt to

question when should we attempt to engineer shared eco systems now this is

engineer shared eco systems now this is

engineer shared eco systems now this is a hard question and it’s one best

a hard question and it’s one best

a hard question and it’s one best addressed by the local communities that

addressed by the local communities that

addressed by the local communities that are likely to be affected and when you

are likely to be affected and when you

are likely to be affected and when you go to people and you ask them to share

go to people and you ask them to share

go to people and you ask them to share their concerns and criticism of a

their concerns and criticism of a

their concerns and criticism of a particular proposal you get some people

particular proposal you get some people

particular proposal you get some people that are enthused and they ask how they

that are enthused and they ask how they

that are enthused and they ask how they can help you get some people that have

can help you get some people that have

can help you get some people that have specific technical concerns that they

specific technical concerns that they

specific technical concerns that they want addressed and then you have some

want addressed and then you have some

want addressed and then you have some who question the very premise of the

who question the very premise of the

who question the very premise of the idea that is they want to know how can

idea that is they want to know how can

idea that is they want to know how can we justify our apparent hubris in trying

we justify our apparent hubris in trying

we justify our apparent hubris in trying to engineer a complex ecosystem that we

to engineer a complex ecosystem that we

to engineer a complex ecosystem that we don’t fully understand now I deeply

don’t fully understand now I deeply

don’t fully understand now I deeply respect this particular concern because

respect this particular concern because

respect this particular concern because I believe that we are morally

I believe that we are morally

I believe that we are morally responsible for all the consequences of

responsible for all the consequences of

responsible for all the consequences of our actions we are equally responsible

our actions we are equally responsible

our actions we are equally responsible for the consequences of choosing to do

for the consequences of choosing to do

for the consequences of choosing to do nothing and many ecological problems

nothing and many ecological problems

nothing and many ecological problems around the world are severe enough that

around the world are severe enough that

around the world are severe enough that the moral cost of doing nothing may be

the moral cost of doing nothing may be

the moral cost of doing nothing may be too great if you look at Hawaii you have

too great if you look at Hawaii you have

too great if you look at Hawaii you have invasive mosquitoes spreading bird

invasive mosquitoes spreading bird

invasive mosquitoes spreading bird malaria that are threatening to

malaria that are threatening to

malaria that are threatening to eradicate the last few iconic native

eradicate the last few iconic native

eradicate the last few iconic native bird species you have an invasive fungus

bird species you have an invasive fungus

bird species you have an invasive fungus that’s attacking the most abundant tree

that’s attacking the most abundant tree

that’s attacking the most abundant tree in the hawaiian forest and of course you

in the hawaiian forest and of course you

in the hawaiian forest and of course you have species such as rats doing what

have species such as rats doing what

have species such as rats doing what they do everywhere which is driving many

they do everywhere which is driving many

they do everywhere which is driving many native species to the brink of

native species to the brink of

native species to the brink of extinction and over the edge that’s the

extinction and over the edge that’s the

extinction and over the edge that’s the natural world what about human effects

natural world what about human effects

natural world what about human effects here in New England our fondness for

here in New England our fondness for

here in New England our fondness for beautiful forested meadow environments

beautiful forested meadow environments

beautiful forested meadow environments has led us to inadvertently maximize the

has led us to inadvertently maximize the

has led us to inadvertently maximize the number of ticks and of the white-footed

number of ticks and of the white-footed

number of ticks and of the white-footed mice responsible for infecting them with

mice responsible for infecting them with

mice responsible for infecting them with pathogens that cause Lyme disease and

pathogens that cause Lyme disease and

pathogens that cause Lyme disease and worse so we in the sculpting evolution

worse so we in the sculpting evolution

worse so we in the sculpting evolution group have been working on addressing

group have been working on addressing

group have been working on addressing all these problems together with the

all these problems together with the

all these problems together with the local communities who know these

local communities who know these

local communities who know these environments

environments

environments and we’ll have to live with the

and we’ll have to live with the

and we’ll have to live with the consequences of whatever they decide to

consequences of whatever they decide to

consequences of whatever they decide to do but what’s really been striking about

do but what’s really been striking about

do but what’s really been striking about some of these conversations is how many

some of these conversations is how many

some of these conversations is how many people have said you know this town hall

people have said you know this town hall

people have said you know this town hall discussion about whether we should

discussion about whether we should

discussion about whether we should genetically engineer the wilderness was

genetically engineer the wilderness was

genetically engineer the wilderness was a lot more calm and reasoned than

a lot more calm and reasoned than

a lot more calm and reasoned than discussions about most cultural topics

discussions about most cultural topics

discussions about most cultural topics nowadays and that suggests that there is

nowadays and that suggests that there is

nowadays and that suggests that there is something wrong so let me try to explain

something wrong so let me try to explain

something wrong so let me try to explain from the perspective of an ecological

from the perspective of an ecological

from the perspective of an ecological and evolutionary engineer what might be

and evolutionary engineer what might be

and evolutionary engineer what might be wrong with our social ecosystems now the

wrong with our social ecosystems now the

wrong with our social ecosystems now the first rule of evolution in the

first rule of evolution in the

first rule of evolution in the laboratory when you’re trying to direct

laboratory when you’re trying to direct

laboratory when you’re trying to direct it for a particular purpose is you get

it for a particular purpose is you get

it for a particular purpose is you get what you select for which is not

what you select for which is not

what you select for which is not necessarily what you want now this is

necessarily what you want now this is

necessarily what you want now this is important to society because of numbers

important to society because of numbers

important to society because of numbers now please raise your hand if you like

now please raise your hand if you like

now please raise your hand if you like numbers all right I love numbers because

numbers all right I love numbers because

numbers all right I love numbers because numbers are solid reliable anchors to

numbers are solid reliable anchors to

numbers are solid reliable anchors to reality without numbers were lost in the

reality without numbers were lost in the

reality without numbers were lost in the fog of unquantifiable uncertainty we

fog of unquantifiable uncertainty we

fog of unquantifiable uncertainty we don’t know how important anything we do

don’t know how important anything we do

don’t know how important anything we do is unless we can measure it the problem

is unless we can measure it the problem

is unless we can measure it the problem is not everything is equally easily

is not everything is equally easily

is not everything is equally easily quantified and that introduces bias so

quantified and that introduces bias so

quantified and that introduces bias so for example we want to maximize human

for example we want to maximize human

for example we want to maximize human wellbeing but that’s hard to measure

wellbeing but that’s hard to measure

wellbeing but that’s hard to measure whereas GDP is a beautiful single number

whereas GDP is a beautiful single number

whereas GDP is a beautiful single number so we have economic policies that

so we have economic policies that

so we have economic policies that promote things like flexible labor

promote things like flexible labor

promote things like flexible labor markets now please raise your hand if

markets now please raise your hand if

markets now please raise your hand if you were raised in the Boston area some

you were raised in the Boston area some

you were raised in the Boston area some of you here please raise your hand if

of you here please raise your hand if

of you here please raise your hand if you live within blocks of your extended

you live within blocks of your extended

you live within blocks of your extended family a few within blocks of a trusted

family a few within blocks of a trusted

family a few within blocks of a trusted friend from childhood Wow some people

friend from childhood Wow some people

friend from childhood Wow some people are multiply lucky here how about a

are multiply lucky here how about a

are multiply lucky here how about a trusted friend from college as well a

trusted friend from college as well a

trusted friend from college as well a few but not very many that is what we’ve

few but not very many that is what we’ve

few but not very many that is what we’ve been doing is maximizing growth and the

been doing is maximizing growth and the

been doing is maximizing growth and the cost of that flexible labor market is

cost of that flexible labor market is

cost of that flexible labor market is measured in severed human relationships

measured in severed human relationships

measured in severed human relationships and it’s those relationships which are

and it’s those relationships which are

and it’s those relationships which are hard to measure which really make up the

hard to measure which really make up the

hard to measure which really make up the social fabric of society

social fabric of society

social fabric of society so I suspect that a lot of the

so I suspect that a lot of the

so I suspect that a lot of the underlying cause of our problems is due

underlying cause of our problems is due

underlying cause of our problems is due to that fraying social fabric loss of

to that fraying social fabric loss of

to that fraying social fabric loss of trust in one another and only the most

trust in one another and only the most

trust in one another and only the most visible of those consequences the most

visible of those consequences the most

visible of those consequences the most measurable are things like the rising

measurable are things like the rising

measurable are things like the rising deaths from despair

deaths from despair

deaths from despair so in short economic policy is broken

so in short economic policy is broken

so in short economic policy is broken along with many things like it that

along with many things like it that

along with many things like it that focus on numbers quantifiable things

focus on numbers quantifiable things

focus on numbers quantifiable things like GDP as proxies for hard to measure

like GDP as proxies for hard to measure

like GDP as proxies for hard to measure things like human wellbeing and that may

things like human wellbeing and that may

things like human wellbeing and that may have worked once but right now it’s no

have worked once but right now it’s no

have worked once but right now it’s no longer working another lesson from the

longer working another lesson from the

longer working another lesson from the natural world is that evolution has no

natural world is that evolution has no

natural world is that evolution has no moral compass that is to say that which

moral compass that is to say that which

moral compass that is to say that which replicates wins becomes more abundant by

replicates wins becomes more abundant by

replicates wins becomes more abundant by definition regardless of the cost to the

definition regardless of the cost to the

definition regardless of the cost to the greater system if you look out there in

greater system if you look out there in

greater system if you look out there in the natural world more than 40% of all

the natural world more than 40% of all

the natural world more than 40% of all species are thought to be parasites

species are thought to be parasites

species are thought to be parasites ecosystems aren’t optimized for anything

ecosystems aren’t optimized for anything

ecosystems aren’t optimized for anything and this is relevant to us because

and this is relevant to us because

and this is relevant to us because capitalism amounts to a clever way of

capitalism amounts to a clever way of

capitalism amounts to a clever way of harnessing evolution to satisfy consumer

harnessing evolution to satisfy consumer

harnessing evolution to satisfy consumer preferences anyone who can offer better

preferences anyone who can offer better

preferences anyone who can offer better goods and services that people want at

goods and services that people want at

goods and services that people want at progressively lower prices is rewarded

progressively lower prices is rewarded

progressively lower prices is rewarded with resources to keep on doing that and

with resources to keep on doing that and

with resources to keep on doing that and you have a virtuous arms-race cycle to

you have a virtuous arms-race cycle to

you have a virtuous arms-race cycle to satisfy consumer preferences more and

satisfy consumer preferences more and

satisfy consumer preferences more and more effectively this is how we create

more effectively this is how we create

more effectively this is how we create wealth and it works very well in some

wealth and it works very well in some

wealth and it works very well in some industries consumer electronics clearly

industries consumer electronics clearly

industries consumer electronics clearly but capitalism doesn’t seem to be so

but capitalism doesn’t seem to be so

but capitalism doesn’t seem to be so efficient in others in the past 50 years

efficient in others in the past 50 years

efficient in others in the past 50 years the cost of housing if you control for

the cost of housing if you control for

the cost of housing if you control for size and quality has gone up by 50% the

size and quality has gone up by 50% the

size and quality has gone up by 50% the cost of primary education has more than

cost of primary education has more than

cost of primary education has more than doubled with no obvious improvement in

doubled with no obvious improvement in

doubled with no obvious improvement in learning the cost of college and of

learning the cost of college and of

learning the cost of college and of healthcare have both increased by more

healthcare have both increased by more

healthcare have both increased by more than a factor of 10 again no really

than a factor of 10 again no really

than a factor of 10 again no really obvious improvements and outputs here so

obvious improvements and outputs here so

obvious improvements and outputs here so what’s going on well you can say housing

what’s going on well you can say housing

what’s going on well you can say housing that’s an effective limited land supply

that’s an effective limited land supply

that’s an effective limited land supply growing population especially near the

growing population especially near the

growing population especially near the coast

coast

coast and you can excuse the others by saying

and you can excuse the others by saying

and you can excuse the others by saying well if you have increased wealth like

well if you have increased wealth like

well if you have increased wealth like we do now health and education seemed

we do now health and education seemed

we do now health and education seemed perfectly reasonable things to spend the

perfectly reasonable things to spend the

perfectly reasonable things to spend the excess on but then why is the cost of

excess on but then why is the cost of

excess on but then why is the cost of infrastructure going up by so much if

infrastructure going up by so much if

infrastructure going up by so much if you look at New York’s most recent

you look at New York’s most recent

you look at New York’s most recent subway line 2.2 billion dollars per mile

subway line 2.2 billion dollars per mile

subway line 2.2 billion dollars per mile that’s ridiculous

that’s ridiculous

that’s ridiculous it’s an outlier but it’s ridiculous and

it’s an outlier but it’s ridiculous and

it’s an outlier but it’s ridiculous and it’s not alone the trend is there and

it’s not alone the trend is there and

it’s not alone the trend is there and this is strange because we have much

this is strange because we have much

this is strange because we have much better technologies for doing everything

better technologies for doing everything

better technologies for doing everything required for infrastructure and for

required for infrastructure and for

required for infrastructure and for healthcare and everything everything

healthcare and everything everything

healthcare and everything everything from better computers to better concrete

from better computers to better concrete

from better computers to better concrete mixers we would expect all of these to

mixers we would expect all of these to

mixers we would expect all of these to be getting cheaper not more expensive

be getting cheaper not more expensive

be getting cheaper not more expensive and it’s not going to wages or even

and it’s not going to wages or even

and it’s not going to wages or even really to benefits despite health care

really to benefits despite health care

really to benefits despite health care so what’s going on well again in the

so what’s going on well again in the

so what’s going on well again in the laboratory if you run a directed

laboratory if you run a directed

laboratory if you run a directed evolution experiment for a while it

evolution experiment for a while it

evolution experiment for a while it might work great for a first few

might work great for a first few

might work great for a first few generations but then eventually you’re

generations but then eventually you’re

generations but then eventually you’re gonna throw up some cheaters or in

gonna throw up some cheaters or in

gonna throw up some cheaters or in parasites that just feed off of the

parasites that just feed off of the

parasites that just feed off of the others and as we know if you look at

others and as we know if you look at

others and as we know if you look at nature the longer you let it go the

nature the longer you let it go the

nature the longer you let it go the worse this gets so my suspicion is that

worse this gets so my suspicion is that

worse this gets so my suspicion is that capitalism and possibly democracy too

capitalism and possibly democracy too

capitalism and possibly democracy too have really just been infested by a

have really just been infested by a

have really just been infested by a proliferation of evolutionary cheaters

proliferation of evolutionary cheaters

proliferation of evolutionary cheaters people have figured out more and more

people have figured out more and more

people have figured out more and more ways of cleverly siphoning additional

ways of cleverly siphoning additional

ways of cleverly siphoning additional resources off and this breaks the system

resources off and this breaks the system

resources off and this breaks the system slowly doesn’t completely break it but

slowly doesn’t completely break it but

slowly doesn’t completely break it but it makes everything more expensive and

it makes everything more expensive and

it makes everything more expensive and it increases inequality and in turn that

it increases inequality and in turn that

it increases inequality and in turn that contributes directly to political

contributes directly to political

contributes directly to political polarization and anger just because

polarization and anger just because

polarization and anger just because we’re stuck with increasingly higher

we’re stuck with increasingly higher

we’re stuck with increasingly higher bills for the exact same services we

bills for the exact same services we

bills for the exact same services we used to get for much cheaper so who’s

used to get for much cheaper so who’s

used to get for much cheaper so who’s gonna pay the extra it’s a lot harder to

gonna pay the extra it’s a lot harder to

gonna pay the extra it’s a lot harder to reach agreement so at this point in the

reach agreement so at this point in the

reach agreement so at this point in the talk you’re probably asking what can we

talk you’re probably asking what can we

talk you’re probably asking what can we do well again laboratory how do you get

do well again laboratory how do you get

do well again laboratory how do you get rid of cheaters we have a very easy way

rid of cheaters we have a very easy way

rid of cheaters we have a very easy way we apply superheated steam and

we apply superheated steam and

we apply superheated steam and 30 atmospheres of pressure and they’re

30 atmospheres of pressure and they’re

30 atmospheres of pressure and they’re all gone it works great the same sort of

all gone it works great the same sort of

all gone it works great the same sort of thing seems to work for society if you

thing seems to work for society if you

thing seems to work for society if you look at history that is the reliable way

look at history that is the reliable way

look at history that is the reliable way to reduce inequality and remove economic

to reduce inequality and remove economic

to reduce inequality and remove economic rent-seeking is war famine pestilence

rent-seeking is war famine pestilence

rent-seeking is war famine pestilence and mass death so we really need some

and mass death so we really need some

and mass death so we really need some other solutions here and by the way you

other solutions here and by the way you

other solutions here and by the way you should be depressed now I mean come on

should be depressed now I mean come on

should be depressed now I mean come on these are some of our most eco systems

these are some of our most eco systems

these are some of our most eco systems that we’re proud of I’m supposed to be

that we’re proud of I’m supposed to be

that we’re proud of I’m supposed to be working in efficient in clever ways of

working in efficient in clever ways of

working in efficient in clever ways of harnessing evolution and they’re not

harnessing evolution and they’re not

harnessing evolution and they’re not working so if you’re an optimist like me

working so if you’re an optimist like me

working so if you’re an optimist like me you’re probably thinking well there’s

you’re probably thinking well there’s

you’re probably thinking well there’s got to be some human cultural ecosystem

got to be some human cultural ecosystem

got to be some human cultural ecosystem that’s working really well and I’m a

that’s working really well and I’m a

that’s working really well and I’m a scientist so I naturally think well

scientist so I naturally think well

scientist so I naturally think well science science is the crown jewel of

science science is the crown jewel of

science science is the crown jewel of our civilization it can be frustrating

our civilization it can be frustrating

our civilization it can be frustrating and inefficient and let me tell you from

and inefficient and let me tell you from

and inefficient and let me tell you from the inside it’s very frustrating and

the inside it’s very frustrating and

the inside it’s very frustrating and inefficient it’s very much a matter of

inefficient it’s very much a matter of

inefficient it’s very much a matter of one step back for two steps forward but

one step back for two steps forward but

one step back for two steps forward but it reliably moves us towards a more

it reliably moves us towards a more

it reliably moves us towards a more accurate picture of the world and that’s

accurate picture of the world and that’s

accurate picture of the world and that’s amazing the problem is if you’re a

amazing the problem is if you’re a

amazing the problem is if you’re a civilization not all knowledge is worth

civilization not all knowledge is worth

civilization not all knowledge is worth having because science is vision just as

having because science is vision just as

having because science is vision just as technology is power and it’s the dance

technology is power and it’s the dance

technology is power and it’s the dance of science and technology that is the

of science and technology that is the

of science and technology that is the engine that drives our civilization

engine that drives our civilization

engine that drives our civilization without them it falls and billions will

without them it falls and billions will

without them it falls and billions will die with them

die with them

die with them well I’m increasingly concerned that we

well I’m increasingly concerned that we

well I’m increasingly concerned that we might inadvertently solve our

might inadvertently solve our

might inadvertently solve our rent-seeking problem suppose there is a

rent-seeking problem suppose there is a

rent-seeking problem suppose there is a discoverable technology out there

discoverable technology out there

discoverable technology out there potentially in our future that if

potentially in our future that if

potentially in our future that if discovered and publicized would bring

discovered and publicized would bring

discovered and publicized would bring down civilization you can probably

down civilization you can probably

down civilization you can probably imagine some things like that but the

imagine some things like that but the

imagine some things like that but the really scary ones are those that none of

really scary ones are those that none of

really scary ones are those that none of us in this room or anywhere else has

us in this room or anywhere else has

us in this room or anywhere else has anticipated if that exists then the

anticipated if that exists then the

anticipated if that exists then the current scientific ecosystem is highly

current scientific ecosystem is highly

current scientific ecosystem is highly likely to stumble straight into it

likely to stumble straight into it

likely to stumble straight into it without ever seeing the danger

without ever seeing the danger

without ever seeing the danger the reason is that in an age of costless

the reason is that in an age of costless

the reason is that in an age of costless communication we still do almost all

communication we still do almost all

communication we still do almost all research including publicly funded

research including publicly funded

research including publicly funded research behind closed doors where

research behind closed doors where

research behind closed doors where everyone is blind to what everyone else

everyone is blind to what everyone else

everyone is blind to what everyone else is doing and most research is done by

is doing and most research is done by

is doing and most research is done by teams of similarly trained specialists

teams of similarly trained specialists

teams of similarly trained specialists who can’t reliably anticipate the

who can’t reliably anticipate the

who can’t reliably anticipate the consequences outside their own narrow

consequences outside their own narrow

consequences outside their own narrow field of specialty which means if you

field of specialty which means if you

field of specialty which means if you have something that it requires a

have something that it requires a

have something that it requires a synergy of this and that neither team is

synergy of this and that neither team is

synergy of this and that neither team is going to know that the other is working

going to know that the other is working

going to know that the other is working on that or even know of the possibility

on that or even know of the possibility

on that or even know of the possibility of that kind of synergistic interaction

of that kind of synergistic interaction

of that kind of synergistic interaction this is still very theoretical so you’re

this is still very theoretical so you’re

this is still very theoretical so you’re probably not convinced yet so let me

probably not convinced yet so let me

probably not convinced yet so let me give you an example five years ago no

give you an example five years ago no

give you an example five years ago no one imagined that we might be able to

one imagined that we might be able to

one imagined that we might be able to engineer entire wild species but if you

engineer entire wild species but if you

engineer entire wild species but if you take CRISPR genome editing and you

take CRISPR genome editing and you

take CRISPR genome editing and you combine it with gene Drive which is a

combine it with gene Drive which is a

combine it with gene Drive which is a natural phenomenon it’s a strategy

natural phenomenon it’s a strategy

natural phenomenon it’s a strategy whereby genetic elements ensure that

whereby genetic elements ensure that

whereby genetic elements ensure that they get inherited put those together

they get inherited put those together

they get inherited put those together and that’s exactly the capability that

and that’s exactly the capability that

and that’s exactly the capability that we now have

we now have

we now have if you engineer an organism so that it

if you engineer an organism so that it

if you engineer an organism so that it has the edited changes that we want in

has the edited changes that we want in

has the edited changes that we want in its genome and we encode the editing

its genome and we encode the editing

its genome and we encode the editing machinery next to it then when that

machinery next to it then when that

machinery next to it then when that organism mates with a wild one the

organism mates with a wild one the

organism mates with a wild one the offspring will inherit one of each and

offspring will inherit one of each and

offspring will inherit one of each and in those offspring the editing machinery

in those offspring the editing machinery

in those offspring the editing machinery will convert the original version to the

will convert the original version to the

will convert the original version to the edited version it’s a find and replace

edited version it’s a find and replace

edited version it’s a find and replace because the next generation is

because the next generation is

because the next generation is guaranteed to inherit and the next and

guaranteed to inherit and the next and

guaranteed to inherit and the next and the next and the next so four years ago

the next and the next so four years ago

the next and the next so four years ago my colleagues and I first envisioned

my colleagues and I first envisioned

my colleagues and I first envisioned this possibility and its potential

this possibility and its potential

this possibility and its potential outcomes and we were initially elated

outcomes and we were initially elated

outcomes and we were initially elated but then very concerned so we asked a

but then very concerned so we asked a

but then very concerned so we asked a bunch of experts from diverse fields

bunch of experts from diverse fields

bunch of experts from diverse fields from ecology to security to even

from ecology to security to even

from ecology to security to even environmental NGOs to see what they

environmental NGOs to see what they

environmental NGOs to see what they thought we should do and we concluded

thought we should do and we concluded

thought we should do and we concluded that it’s not very physically dangerous

that it’s not very physically dangerous

that it’s not very physically dangerous just because it’s slow it spreads over

just because it’s slow it spreads over

just because it’s slow it spreads over generations and it’s easy to detect by

generations and it’s easy to detect by

generations and it’s easy to detect by sequencing and once you detect it you

sequencing and once you detect it you

sequencing and once you detect it you can counter it with another find and

can counter it with another find and

can counter it with another find and replace but it’s very socially dangerous

replace but it’s very socially dangerous

replace but it’s very socially dangerous just because well you can imagine the

just because well you can imagine the

just because well you can imagine the head

head

head if some scientist accidentally releases

if some scientist accidentally releases

if some scientist accidentally releases something into the wild that will

something into the wild that will

something into the wild that will eventually engineer that entire species

eventually engineer that entire species

eventually engineer that entire species it would be pretty devastating to public

it would be pretty devastating to public

it would be pretty devastating to public trust in science and as previously

trust in science and as previously

trust in science and as previously mentioned we really need science so how

mentioned we really need science so how

mentioned we really need science so how to stop that well we decided we would

to stop that well we decided we would

to stop that well we decided we would publish our findings our assessment of

publish our findings our assessment of

publish our findings our assessment of what this could do and a detailed list

what this could do and a detailed list

what this could do and a detailed list of technical safeguards that should be

of technical safeguards that should be

of technical safeguards that should be able to prevent that kind of accident

able to prevent that kind of accident

able to prevent that kind of accident the next year the very same high profile

the next year the very same high profile

the next year the very same high profile journal that published our warnings came

journal that published our warnings came

journal that published our warnings came out with a report detailing the same

out with a report detailing the same

out with a report detailing the same technology under a different name

technology under a different name

technology under a different name without using any of the safeguards now

without using any of the safeguards now

without using any of the safeguards now I have no explanation for the journal

I have no explanation for the journal

I have no explanation for the journal but the researchers are brilliant

but the researchers are brilliant

but the researchers are brilliant well-meaning scientists who hadn’t seen

well-meaning scientists who hadn’t seen

well-meaning scientists who hadn’t seen our work weren’t even aware of the

our work weren’t even aware of the

our work weren’t even aware of the concept of gene Drive because it’s

concept of gene Drive because it’s

concept of gene Drive because it’s something for from evolutionary biology

something for from evolutionary biology

something for from evolutionary biology which was not their field and they were

which was not their field and they were

which was not their field and they were just focused on building a better tool

just focused on building a better tool

just focused on building a better tool for laboratory genetics experiments that

for laboratory genetics experiments that

for laboratory genetics experiments that could be used by others they never

could be used by others they never

could be used by others they never imagined that it could be applied to

imagined that it could be applied to

imagined that it could be applied to wild populations so there you have it a

wild populations so there you have it a

wild populations so there you have it a powerful completely unanticipated

powerful completely unanticipated

powerful completely unanticipated technology that despite our best efforts

technology that despite our best efforts

technology that despite our best efforts was still independently developed and

was still independently developed and

was still independently developed and publicized by researchers who were blind

publicized by researchers who were blind

publicized by researchers who were blind to the consequences do we have any

to the consequences do we have any

to the consequences do we have any barriers in place to prevent this from

barriers in place to prevent this from

barriers in place to prevent this from happening for a more dangerous

happening for a more dangerous

happening for a more dangerous technology I can’t think of many so at

technology I can’t think of many so at

technology I can’t think of many so at this point the question can we engineer

this point the question can we engineer

this point the question can we engineer social ecosystems is looking a little

social ecosystems is looking a little

social ecosystems is looking a little bit more urgent that means I have a

bit more urgent that means I have a

bit more urgent that means I have a confession for you when I say that I’m

confession for you when I say that I’m

confession for you when I say that I’m an ecological engineer people laugh and

an ecological engineer people laugh and

an ecological engineer people laugh and they left because we don’t know how to

they left because we don’t know how to

they left because we don’t know how to do that it’s only because of tools like

do that it’s only because of tools like

do that it’s only because of tools like CRISPR based gene Drive which let us

CRISPR based gene Drive which let us

CRISPR based gene Drive which let us harness the strategies of cheaters to

harness the strategies of cheaters to

harness the strategies of cheaters to alter populations and by those

alter populations and by those

alter populations and by those populations the associated ecosystem

populations the associated ecosystem

populations the associated ecosystem that’s the only way that we think we can

that’s the only way that we think we can

that’s the only way that we think we can do it now and similar approaches so the

do it now and similar approaches so the

do it now and similar approaches so the question is can we apply this to the

question is can we apply this to the

question is can we apply this to the social setting what is the equivalent

social setting what is the equivalent

social setting what is the equivalent and I suspect we can now I’m gonna focus

and I suspect we can now I’m gonna focus

and I suspect we can now I’m gonna focus on science because I know the scientific

on science because I know the scientific

on science because I know the scientific ecosystem best scientists to be

ecosystem best scientists to be

ecosystem best scientists to be practicing scientists we need

practicing scientists we need

practicing scientists we need recognition for what we do which leads

recognition for what we do which leads

recognition for what we do which leads to continued funding so if you want us

to continued funding so if you want us

to continued funding so if you want us to share our experimental plans in

to share our experimental plans in

to share our experimental plans in advance with others so that society can

advance with others so that society can

advance with others so that society can scrutinize them for potential dangers

scrutinize them for potential dangers

scrutinize them for potential dangers and intervene early then you need to get

and intervene early then you need to get

and intervene early then you need to get the scientific journals and the funders

the scientific journals and the funders

the scientific journals and the funders to change the incentives now speaking

to change the incentives now speaking

to change the incentives now speaking from experience now I can tell you that

from experience now I can tell you that

from experience now I can tell you that none of them wants to be first it’s a

none of them wants to be first it’s a

none of them wants to be first it’s a collective action problem so we need

collective action problem so we need

collective action problem so we need some way to get the wagon moving without

some way to get the wagon moving without

some way to get the wagon moving without them I think the answer is to use a

them I think the answer is to use a

them I think the answer is to use a technology to harness it cheat in this

technology to harness it cheat in this

technology to harness it cheat in this case the cheat is intellectual property

case the cheat is intellectual property

case the cheat is intellectual property now patent trolls love to use

now patent trolls love to use

now patent trolls love to use intellectual property to halt useful

intellectual property to halt useful

intellectual property to halt useful products unless they get paid off it’s a

products unless they get paid off it’s a

products unless they get paid off it’s a great way for them to siphon off

great way for them to siphon off

great way for them to siphon off resources but if what you want to do is

resources but if what you want to do is

resources but if what you want to do is change the incentives you want

change the incentives you want

change the incentives you want scientists to do something differently

scientists to do something differently

scientists to do something differently well how about you say you can’t do that

well how about you say you can’t do that

well how about you say you can’t do that research unless you first publicly

research unless you first publicly

research unless you first publicly disclose your plans this wouldn’t

disclose your plans this wouldn’t

disclose your plans this wouldn’t normally work but we have an opportunity

normally work but we have an opportunity

normally work but we have an opportunity here in the form of CRISPR based gene

here in the form of CRISPR based gene

here in the form of CRISPR based gene Drive so here’s how it would work to get

Drive so here’s how it would work to get

Drive so here’s how it would work to get together get together a patent pool of

together get together a patent pool of

together get together a patent pool of relevant IP for building CRISPR based

relevant IP for building CRISPR based

relevant IP for building CRISPR based gene Drive ignore commercial licensing

gene Drive ignore commercial licensing

gene Drive ignore commercial licensing don’t touch that at all and just

don’t touch that at all and just

don’t touch that at all and just regulate the research but offer anyone a

regulate the research but offer anyone a

regulate the research but offer anyone a license for free provided that they

license for free provided that they

license for free provided that they share their experimental plans in

share their experimental plans in

share their experimental plans in advance this will be controversial

advance this will be controversial

advance this will be controversial because it violates this long-standing

because it violates this long-standing

because it violates this long-standing precedent which has very good reasons

precedent which has very good reasons

precedent which has very good reasons behind it that patents should not

behind it that patents should not

behind it that patents should not interfere with non-profit scientific

interfere with non-profit scientific

interfere with non-profit scientific research in this case I think there is

research in this case I think there is

research in this case I think there is very good reasons to make an exception

very good reasons to make an exception

very good reasons to make an exception to that

to that

to that and that controversy will lead to media

and that controversy will lead to media

and that controversy will lead to media coverage yet it’s really hard to stand

coverage yet it’s really hard to stand

coverage yet it’s really hard to stand up in public and assert that you have a

up in public and assert that you have a

up in public and assert that you have a right to develop a technology that can

right to develop a technology that can

right to develop a technology that can single-handedly engineer ecosystems in

single-handedly engineer ecosystems in

single-handedly engineer ecosystems in secret without telling anyone what

secret without telling anyone what

secret without telling anyone what you’re doing or allowing anyone to have

you’re doing or allowing anyone to have

you’re doing or allowing anyone to have a look and make sure you’re using

a look and make sure you’re using

a look and make sure you’re using safeguards so favorable media coverage

safeguards so favorable media coverage

safeguards so favorable media coverage will then incentivize the funders and

will then incentivize the funders and

will then incentivize the funders and journals to jump on the Nell moving

journals to jump on the Nell moving

journals to jump on the Nell moving bandwagon and add their own incentives

bandwagon and add their own incentives

bandwagon and add their own incentives if it can work for CRISPR based gene

if it can work for CRISPR based gene

if it can work for CRISPR based gene Drive then you have a precedent and the

Drive then you have a precedent and the

Drive then you have a precedent and the strategy might then be applied to

strategy might then be applied to

strategy might then be applied to related fields involving technologies

related fields involving technologies

related fields involving technologies with shared impacts and eventually to

with shared impacts and eventually to

with shared impacts and eventually to most of the areas were concerned about

most of the areas were concerned about

most of the areas were concerned about throughout the scientific ecosystem and

throughout the scientific ecosystem and

throughout the scientific ecosystem and who knows if it works there perhaps it

who knows if it works there perhaps it

who knows if it works there perhaps it could be applied to the other ecosystems

could be applied to the other ecosystems

could be applied to the other ecosystems that we think may require a fix or –

let’s be fair this idea could fail it

let’s be fair this idea could fail it could fail spectacularly in fact most

could fail spectacularly in fact most

could fail spectacularly in fact most experiments in science do fail but

experiments in science do fail but

experiments in science do fail but that’s why we would then have to take a

that’s why we would then have to take a

that’s why we would then have to take a lesson from engineering and that is try

lesson from engineering and that is try

lesson from engineering and that is try something else

something else

something else until it works and we have to do that

until it works and we have to do that

until it works and we have to do that because when we think that civilization

because when we think that civilization

because when we think that civilization itself may be at risk the moral cost of

itself may be at risk the moral cost of

itself may be at risk the moral cost of doing nothing is always too high thank

doing nothing is always too high thank

doing nothing is always too high thank you

you

you [Applause]