the boys are here to be here
glad to come back to read, I had
a few years and then I’ll talk to you
this thing here of this
replacement in place and if web and robot
show with work
maybe it will buy us to focus on things
that make us human
let’s start from the end and the end is
this gentleman here a gentleman say
you have learned to know him with this
24 carat smile and the case of
say the reason why he is where
now it’s a reason it’s known this is
here we believe this curve of seats
in the manufactory in the united states is
a bad curve badly towards the
low but this is a known part
let’s say we know he promised to
make great america again
reporting that work the part that does not
He knew how to love this here that more
interesting pine go to deal with
speech we are doing
or on the left you see the map
election of trump the states in which it has
won more hands down that coincides in
amazing way with the conspicuous
exception of California with the other
map that right blue are
the states in which the profession more
prevailing is the truck driver who
what have these two things got to do with it
because the truck drivers were
practically one of the few professions
of the middle class that did not require a
high degree of study however was
considered safe because it had not been
affected by the delocalization that is
to drive a truck
they wanted to be human not in Mexico
not in China but in Ohio in
wisconsin and so on
this was first though because now
it will no longer be true because we are
just talking about 3.5 million
people who with the induced become 5.2
millions of people
these numbers at this point would be
caught up in flames but this is it
another disqualification of a software
when the software transcodes the
work of his hand this is
the effect but in short, the meaning is that
these works disappear and these works
they disappear faster than they are
we thought because this is an estimate of
morgan stanley
that we usually take with estimates
of young people 2022 2023 see here
when the safety naveen cardi between one
what a widespread thing
pity that in this circumstance this
future this future has already arrived is
arrived on September 15 this year
a few months ago in pittsburgh I am
you arrive first the first flotilla of
huberless car, that is, you
take your app called one
you have a good chance of it
via a totally capable machine
to drive alone now by competence and
for honesty I say behind the wheel
there is a human being who intervenes only
in case of necessity however
is giving most of the time with the
arms folded if everything goes well
let’s say it does not do anything because the water
the car drives alone now us
especially we journalists have one
great responsibility in this because
we talk a lot about the car that
you drive alone and we talk little about the
truck that followed only one
technology
obviously it is the same and the consequences
a market and work are much more
relevant and then I will show you
now 10 numbers a species
internally, electric furniture is
met someone particularly
optimistic about the future of work at the bar
you will have some good arguments from da
oppose him and the 10 arguments are who they are
these are ten names you have here
gestures that publish species obsession
on the 10 numbers and I’m no exception
then the first number is 2000 that in
truth is a date and a date in which
something strange happens, see these
two curves are above and the curve of the
productivity and under the curve
of employment these curves go from
post-war period onwards
enough in concert I say enough
a little they deviate but there is a point in it
which they begin to flex to spread
these two researchers of the minds that
they did this study are called
eric brin jolson andrew mcafee speak
of great decoupling and this
great decoupling begins to take place
see more strongly around
to the year 2000 because because 2000 is
the year in which the international economy
it starts to turn, they really said
full at full capacity and intermediate but
especially because the machines for
a whole series of innovations are called
machine learning big data management of
date start to go too strong
for men, that is, I can not do it
more to keep up and growth of the
jobs stops
second number number 47 is another
study that has become a classic is
a percentage of this time 47 for
one hundred
and what to do with this thing here two
researchers this time of oxford yes
they call carlo frey and michael osbourne e
they calculated the probability the
risk that between now and twenty years and one
something in 2013 then the final date
to 2033
and how many occupations of existing ones
now in the American market I am a
risk of automation I do not say that
will be replaced but there will be the
technology to replace the 47 for
one hundred are other risks to see you of
here I do not know where to put myself in the submerged and
in short, half of this room is saved
high risk of automation maybe you
I would think about it
the third number is the third number
this here and 5 for a big number
however, despite the fact that it is this
is the forecast of the world economic
forum of davos last year of a di
a panel of economists who have that
they intercepted to understand which one
will be the balance between new posts created and
places destroyed by technology
from here to 2020 this is theirs
result is also another result
of mackenzie which is probably one
from the largest consulting agency
of the world most famous in the world than in
2025 25 years later I kick this jump
in 7 million less we say included
precisely those created and those destroyed
there is also another number I could go
forward for a long time but time is tyrant 15
millions
andrew haldane chief economist of the
Bank of England still thinks of it
even worse what interests me
that we have very clear that before
these pretty big numbers are there
always a sign
less is the fourth number the fourth
number is 15
this time we are talking about this
what here maybe you’ve seen it from somewhere
part this is a warehouse of amazon e
below are some forklifts they are called
who does are robots that work
very good pity that thanks also to
these amazon monetti to generate 10
millions of dollars in turnover employs
15 people while a shop
traditional and also used included
the large distribution
It took occupied 47 which as you know
more than three times as much and this is only
the beginning because those machines there
they are always better and will suffer
even more
we are in the fifth number the fifth number
13
and what to do with this thing here
all of you or almost all of you will know
it’s called instagram is an application
to share images when it is
been bought from facebook for one
one billion dollars in 2012 had 13
employees 13 employees
to make a comparison kodak that absolved
the same social function that is
share images with people who
they cherished it had its high moment
140,000 employees with irony of the
fate has failed the year before
instagram was bought from facebook and
we are in the sixth issue of the number gand e
this time 160 thousand and have to do with
this gentleman who maybe not
you know but recognize certainly creates
priest that can be said without saying
risk of hyperbole a brilliant room
it’s called andrew angie ex professor a
stanford then sunk with a colleague
a platform called a corsera
where you can take courses on
line from time to time also a lot
prestigious almost for free
with a few or a few tens of dollars
well at some point its course
its course and state of intelligence
artificial was followed by 160 thousand
students around the world who from reggio
emilia who from seattle to whom from china e
etc
where where the problem is, no part if
not that as a scenario we can do one
mental experiment
now it was 160 thousand could not
be a million 6 just enlarge the
band say of the servant who was
or it could be 16 million
andrew ge students as it is
really very cool
because one should go from the second
most cool in the world since the third since
we can have access to everything
good if not that this is a scenario
that economists as they know well
call if that is the winner takes
all
the question is what will everyone do
other teachers who are not like that
figs as andrew mg the photocopy point
of application
seventh number seventh number this
time and 500 and brings us closer to us
indeed definitely closer to my house
in Rome this station terms 500 is the
number of tickets that these
machines make per day on average 500
tickets against the 200 tickets he makes
a human window operator who has others
typical peculiar disadvantages of beings
humans pause, the more they do
lunch break they need tickets
restaurant and why in short
and so on and cost a fraction of
stromae unfortunately cost much more
of the machines according to you in the future a
short let’s say you’ll see more odds
human or more automatic machines
I accept bets then the number 860
60,000,000 santa mine is exactly the
population of the city where I was born
I’ll drive you imagine one
scenario in which the from one day
to the other viareggio
let’s say at home as a population
work disappears and what it is
success to these gentlemen here that
they work for a company that you all
with which all of you have a little to do
because we say and those that builds
my iphone your iphone your
samsung your lg TVs any
what I could think of electronic
of consumption practically foxton the
produces and fox with in one fell swoop
made out of the 60 thousand employees
because he took them in their place
as many robots
on the other hand, the delegated administration
he announced it a few years ago
I will assume he will have said and done to say
let’s say a million robots and so are you
slowly making even slowly
this is done to say
we are at the ninth number is the ninth number
it’s this 2000 like the first one but
this is not a date that another
number
it’s a number and there are two thousand images it is
sad but life is also made of
these things like this is a
machine anesthesiologist at the back he sees
on the left a car that does
johnson and johnson
in short, this machine instead of
cost $ 2,000 as it cost
let’s say with the specialist on site
with the machine do anesthesia enough
put a tube and it costs 200 dollars
200 dollars
tenth number and this is because
typically at this point there is someone
that tells me but you are too pessimistic
you do not calculate how many new jobs
fantastic we will not be created
you can not even imagine yourself very well
is there anyone that this effort
imagination has echoed the car frey
of oxford I mentioned before
how much is the percentage of Americans of
American workers now works the
companies born after 2000 not present
all those we talked about it
zero was 5 percent
you understood 0.5 percent those well
companies we talk about so much damage
to work at 0.5 percent
way out to the webcast tax policy
it is spoken in these days padova ne
he’s talking
let’s talk seriously about it because apple pays off
0.005 percent tax in ireland and
because google pays 300 million keys
in Italy but it owed 900 million
so I do not understand what’s there
to celebrate
amazon is in check by the guard of
finance for the same reasons you can
talk if all this does not work
income also rises, but seriously
not in a manner we say instrumental the
culture this is the bag room a
bologna
empathy cares for her ability to
solve unexpected problems
excite emotional making all of them
things here humans are still very much
good for beauty and creativity
obviously that is the things for which it is valid
worth living
I would say
the old groucho marx a game of
May second movement of the symphony
jupiter him to show the engraving of
the blues power is Swedish naturally
the sentimental education of flaubert
marlon brando frank sinatra those
incredible apples pears painted by
cézanne is very much like a waiting sam
near
here is the face of trani on all these
things here are still fortunately
irreplaceable good future to all
Thanks for the attention
[Applause]
[Music]
[Music]
”
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