so I’m told a degree in computer science from
from
from three seconds it’s possibly
so recently I picked up whose name I’m
so recently I picked up whose name I’m fasting lottery counter revealed on
fasting lottery counter revealed on
fasting lottery counter revealed on stage in TED talk on the back cover of
stage in TED talk on the back cover of
stage in TED talk on the back cover of the book it made three bold visionary
the book it made three bold visionary
the book it made three bold visionary headline claims about the future of
headline claims about the future of
headline claims about the future of intelligent machines the first claim and
intelligent machines the first claim and
intelligent machines the first claim and hold on to your seats for this because
hold on to your seats for this because
hold on to your seats for this because it’s a big one
it’s a big one
it’s a big one was that Oh in very very very soon we
was that Oh in very very very soon we
was that Oh in very very very soon we could have robots that are as
could have robots that are as
could have robots that are as intelligent as insects thank you
intelligent as insects thank you
intelligent as insects thank you the second claim was a little bit more
the second claim was a little bit more
the second claim was a little bit more impressive it said that in perhaps as
impressive it said that in perhaps as
impressive it said that in perhaps as soon as five years we’ll have robots
soon as five years we’ll have robots
soon as five years we’ll have robots that are as intelligence and as cats
that are as intelligence and as cats
that are as intelligence and as cats which is pretty cool I think and that
which is pretty cool I think and that
which is pretty cool I think and that means in perhaps three or four years
means in perhaps three or four years
means in perhaps three or four years we’ll have robots as intelligent as dogs
the final claim sort of inevitably for
the final claim sort of inevitably for any kind of book about artificial
any kind of book about artificial
any kind of book about artificial intelligence is of course the big one
intelligence is of course the big one
intelligence is of course the big one which is that in perhaps as soon as ten
which is that in perhaps as soon as ten
which is that in perhaps as soon as ten years we’ll have robots as intelligent
years we’ll have robots as intelligent
years we’ll have robots as intelligent as people and like if you’ve seen the
as people and like if you’ve seen the
as people and like if you’ve seen the news recently that seems increasingly
news recently that seems increasingly
news recently that seems increasingly plausible regardless of your own kind of
plausible regardless of your own kind of
plausible regardless of your own kind of personal opinions about this and what
personal opinions about this and what
personal opinions about this and what you think sort of is you know whether
you think sort of is you know whether
you think sort of is you know whether this is kind of a reasonable timeline
this is kind of a reasonable timeline
this is kind of a reasonable timeline it’s kind of irrelevant because the
it’s kind of irrelevant because the
it’s kind of irrelevant because the reality is this book was written in 1997
reality is this book was written in 1997
reality is this book was written in 1997 and I think it’s pretty fast to say that
and I think it’s pretty fast to say that
and I think it’s pretty fast to say that the future that had been busy did not
the future that had been busy did not
the future that had been busy did not sort of come to pass and in fact the
sort of come to pass and in fact the
sort of come to pass and in fact the most intelligent robot in my life right
most intelligent robot in my life right
most intelligent robot in my life right now is Rosie the robot which is so
now is Rosie the robot which is so
now is Rosie the robot which is so intelligent that it navigates around my
intelligent that it navigates around my
intelligent that it navigates around my living room by a system of colliding
living room by a system of colliding
living room by a system of colliding with household objects and then changing
with household objects and then changing
with household objects and then changing direction and then sort of diving under
direction and then sort of diving under
direction and then sort of diving under the TV unit grabbing hold of cables and
the TV unit grabbing hold of cables and
the TV unit grabbing hold of cables and trailing electrical equipment across a
trailing electrical equipment across a
trailing electrical equipment across a low demand floor
low demand floor
low demand floor so this isn’t exactly the future that I
so this isn’t exactly the future that I
so this isn’t exactly the future that I was promised in the honest I was growing
was promised in the honest I was growing
was promised in the honest I was growing up and but in spite of that in spite of
up and but in spite of that in spite of
up and but in spite of that in spite of that disappointment were having to deal
that disappointment were having to deal
that disappointment were having to deal with the sort of cavalcade of
with the sort of cavalcade of
with the sort of cavalcade of futurologists and tech pioneers and
futurologists and tech pioneers and
futurologists and tech pioneers and visionaries having us again and again
visionaries having us again and again
visionaries having us again and again and again that the singularity is just
and again that the singularity is just
and again that the singularity is just around the corner machines are going to
around the corner machines are going to
around the corner machines are going to be more intelligent than human beings
be more intelligent than human beings
be more intelligent than human beings they’re going to take out jobs they’re
they’re going to take out jobs they’re
they’re going to take out jobs they’re gonna steal our wives and husbands and
gonna steal our wives and husbands and
gonna steal our wives and husbands and yet increasingly less this kind of
yet increasingly less this kind of
yet increasingly less this kind of growing disparity between the claims
growing disparity between the claims
growing disparity between the claims that are being made and the reality that
that are being made and the reality that
that are being made and the reality that we see in the world around us and to to
we see in the world around us and to to
we see in the world around us and to to kind of explore that a bit I want to
kind of explore that a bit I want to
kind of explore that a bit I want to take you on a little bit of a a thought
take you on a little bit of a a thought
take you on a little bit of a a thought experiment now imagine and this is quite
experiment now imagine and this is quite
experiment now imagine and this is quite exciting imagine you’re an office worker
exciting imagine you’re an office worker
exciting imagine you’re an office worker in the year 1990 some of you have maybe
in the year 1990 some of you have maybe
in the year 1990 some of you have maybe a little bit more easy than others but a
a little bit more easy than others but a
a little bit more easy than others but a few things sort of become quite apparent
few things sort of become quite apparent
few things sort of become quite apparent so it’s somebody graduating now this
so it’s somebody graduating now this
so it’s somebody graduating now this would be a very different one and first
would be a very different one and first
would be a very different one and first of all obviously growing black and white
of all obviously growing black and white
of all obviously growing black and white this time it’s 20 and 27 nearly 30 years
this time it’s 20 and 27 nearly 30 years
this time it’s 20 and 27 nearly 30 years ago if you have a computer on your desk
ago if you have a computer on your desk
ago if you have a computer on your desk it’s not a particularly smart one it may
it’s not a particularly smart one it may
it’s not a particularly smart one it may not be much more than a basic terminal
not be much more than a basic terminal
not be much more than a basic terminal you’re probably looking at a user
you’re probably looking at a user
you’re probably looking at a user interface that’s made out of ASCII art
interface that’s made out of ASCII art
interface that’s made out of ASCII art if you want to send a message to a
if you want to send a message to a
if you want to send a message to a colleague you’re probably going to have
colleague you’re probably going to have
colleague you’re probably going to have to pick up the phone or send a memo if
to pick up the phone or send a memo if
to pick up the phone or send a memo if you’re going to send a document to
you’re going to send a document to
you’re going to send a document to another office you might be looking at
another office you might be looking at
another office you might be looking at something called a fax machine but all
something called a fax machine but all
something called a fax machine but all of the post or various other sort of
of the post or various other sort of
of the post or various other sort of antiquated technologies so the world
antiquated technologies so the world
antiquated technologies so the world that we have now pretty much doesn’t
that we have now pretty much doesn’t
that we have now pretty much doesn’t exist even even as recently as this now
exist even even as recently as this now
exist even even as recently as this now I want to take you through this kind of
I want to take you through this kind of
I want to take you through this kind of experiment that was postulated by a
experiment that was postulated by a
experiment that was postulated by a economist called Robert Gordon who did a
economist called Robert Gordon who did a
economist called Robert Gordon who did a very similar sort of approach for
very similar sort of approach for
very similar sort of approach for productivity during the 20th century but
productivity during the 20th century but
productivity during the 20th century but imagine that you fall asleep like you go
imagine that you fall asleep like you go
imagine that you fall asleep like you go out you have quite a heavy lunch down
out you have quite a heavy lunch down
out you have quite a heavy lunch down the pub you come back to your office
the pub you come back to your office
the pub you come back to your office you’ve had one or two Simoni you feel a
you’ve had one or two Simoni you feel a
you’ve had one or two Simoni you feel a bit dozy and you fall asleep at your
bit dozy and you fall asleep at your
bit dozy and you fall asleep at your desk and you sleep for ten years and you
desk and you sleep for ten years and you
desk and you sleep for ten years and you wake up in the year 2000
wake up in the year 2000
wake up in the year 2000 somehow you’ve still got your job you’re
somehow you’ve still got your job you’re
somehow you’ve still got your job you’re at the st. that’s even though
at the st. that’s even though
at the st. that’s even though functionally useless for the last ten
functionally useless for the last ten
functionally useless for the last ten years maybe you’ve been working on the
years maybe you’ve been working on the
years maybe you’ve been working on the development unit for Windows I mean but
development unit for Windows I mean but
development unit for Windows I mean but whatever the reason you’re still there
whatever the reason you’re still there
whatever the reason you’re still there but the world that you’re in now is very
but the world that you’re in now is very
but the world that you’re in now is very very different and this is kind of what
very different and this is kind of what
very different and this is kind of what you’re faced with it’s basically the
you’re faced with it’s basically the
you’re faced with it’s basically the same desktop I had when I started
same desktop I had when I started
same desktop I had when I started University here in the year 2000
University here in the year 2000
University here in the year 2000 computers themselves have been
computers themselves have been
computers themselves have been completely revolutionized we’ve had
completely revolutionized we’ve had
completely revolutionized we’ve had Windows 3.1 Windows 95 windows 98
Windows 3.1 Windows 95 windows 98
Windows 3.1 Windows 95 windows 98 Internet Explorer we’ve got an email now
Internet Explorer we’ve got an email now
Internet Explorer we’ve got an email now for sending documents mp3s solitaire
for sending documents mp3s solitaire
for sending documents mp3s solitaire like this is a drastically different
like this is a drastically different
like this is a drastically different Microsoft Office and boring PowerPoint
Microsoft Office and boring PowerPoint
Microsoft Office and boring PowerPoint presentations like this one so this is a
presentations like this one so this is a
presentations like this one so this is a drastically different kind of office
drastically different kind of office
drastically different kind of office what the best of confusing while that
what the best of confusing while that
what the best of confusing while that you have 10 years before and then
you have 10 years before and then
you have 10 years before and then obviously this is going to be quite a
obviously this is going to be quite a
obviously this is going to be quite a shock to the system so imagine that you
shock to the system so imagine that you
shock to the system so imagine that you sort of go and have another drink and
sort of go and have another drink and
sort of go and have another drink and you come back to your desk again and you
you come back to your desk again and you
you come back to your desk again and you fall asleep you pass out and you sleep
fall asleep you pass out and you sleep
fall asleep you pass out and you sleep for another 10 years now you wake up in
for another 10 years now you wake up in
for another 10 years now you wake up in the year 2010 somehow you still want
the year 2010 somehow you still want
the year 2010 somehow you still want your job in spite of being function of
your job in spite of being function of
your job in spite of being function of the user for the last 10 years maybe
the user for the last 10 years maybe
the user for the last 10 years maybe you’ve been working on the development
you’ve been working on the development
you’ve been working on the development team for Windows 8 why you’ve been
team for Windows 8 why you’ve been
team for Windows 8 why you’ve been asleep there’s been not one but two
asleep there’s been not one but two
asleep there’s been not one but two major revelations in confusing the first
major revelations in confusing the first
major revelations in confusing the first is the mobile revolution as kind of
is the mobile revolution as kind of
is the mobile revolution as kind of epitomized by Apple we’ve had in that
epitomized by Apple we’ve had in that
epitomized by Apple we’ve had in that time period the iPod the iPhone the iPad
time period the iPod the iPhone the iPad
time period the iPod the iPhone the iPad so a whole range of the advices when you
so a whole range of the advices when you
so a whole range of the advices when you got to the end of the nineties you have
got to the end of the nineties you have
got to the end of the nineties you have Microsoft Office on your desktop
Microsoft Office on your desktop
Microsoft Office on your desktop computer now you can for people using
computer now you can for people using
computer now you can for people using your mobile phone it’s it’s an
your mobile phone it’s it’s an
your mobile phone it’s it’s an incredible transformation and that’s
incredible transformation and that’s
incredible transformation and that’s been matched by a parallel revolution
been matched by a parallel revolution
been matched by a parallel revolution that’s happened in the world of the
that’s happened in the world of the
that’s happened in the world of the internet so we have things like
internet so we have things like
internet so we have things like Wikipedia reddit Facebook Twitter all of
Wikipedia reddit Facebook Twitter all of
Wikipedia reddit Facebook Twitter all of those sites and services that pretty
those sites and services that pretty
those sites and services that pretty much we use today are invented in this
much we use today are invented in this
much we use today are invented in this same time period so again the world is
same time period so again the world is
same time period so again the world is very very different in the space of 10
very very different in the space of 10
very very different in the space of 10 years then if we look at the time
years then if we look at the time
years then if we look at the time since 2010
since 2010
since 2010 there’s this kind of weird sort of
there’s this kind of weird sort of
there’s this kind of weird sort of slowing down in the race of changing the
slowing down in the race of changing the
slowing down in the race of changing the stuff that we’re using this is a list of
stuff that we’re using this is a list of
stuff that we’re using this is a list of some of the top websites and services
some of the top websites and services
some of the top websites and services that we use online and you can see most
that we use online and you can see most
that we use online and you can see most of them it’s actually pretty hard to
of them it’s actually pretty hard to
of them it’s actually pretty hard to find anything from this decade that sort
find anything from this decade that sort
find anything from this decade that sort of makes that top 50 because most of
of makes that top 50 because most of
of makes that top 50 because most of this stuff has been around for quite
this stuff has been around for quite
this stuff has been around for quite some time even things like Netflix or
some time even things like Netflix or
some time even things like Netflix or whatsapp so that you think are quite new
whatsapp so that you think are quite new
whatsapp so that you think are quite new or actually like 8 9 10 years old and so
or actually like 8 9 10 years old and so
or actually like 8 9 10 years old and so it kind of begs the question if there’s
it kind of begs the question if there’s
it kind of begs the question if there’s a major revolution happening right now
a major revolution happening right now
a major revolution happening right now in artificial intelligence then where is
in artificial intelligence then where is
in artificial intelligence then where is this manifesting in the world that we
this manifesting in the world that we
this manifesting in the world that we see around us and you know this is the
see around us and you know this is the
see around us and you know this is the decade where we’ve seen all the
decade where we’ve seen all the
decade where we’ve seen all the superficial ease of quite major
superficial ease of quite major
superficial ease of quite major achievements so 2011 saw IBM’s Watson
achievements so 2011 saw IBM’s Watson
achievements so 2011 saw IBM’s Watson defeating their human champion at the
defeating their human champion at the
defeating their human champion at the Jeopardy for the first time the year
Jeopardy for the first time the year
Jeopardy for the first time the year after that was that are sort of dawn of
after that was that are sort of dawn of
after that was that are sort of dawn of the the kind of deep learning era when
the the kind of deep learning era when
the the kind of deep learning era when there were major breakthroughs in image
there were major breakthroughs in image
there were major breakthroughs in image classification and natural language
classification and natural language
classification and natural language processor and on the back of that in
processor and on the back of that in
processor and on the back of that in 2016 we had alphago beating a human
2016 we had alphago beating a human
2016 we had alphago beating a human player at go while sorry the human
player at go while sorry the human
player at go while sorry the human champion at go for the first time so
champion at go for the first time so
champion at go for the first time so that you know there’s this weird sort of
that you know there’s this weird sort of
that you know there’s this weird sort of dichotomy between these on one hand sort
dichotomy between these on one hand sort
dichotomy between these on one hand sort of major advances and sort of challenges
of major advances and sort of challenges
of major advances and sort of challenges being met and on the other hand this
being met and on the other hand this
being met and on the other hand this sort of lack of this stuff filtering
sort of lack of this stuff filtering
sort of lack of this stuff filtering through to the rest of the world and
through to the rest of the world and
through to the rest of the world and even this year we found that with both
even this year we found that with both
even this year we found that with both IBM and with deep mind there’s a kind of
IBM and with deep mind there’s a kind of
IBM and with deep mind there’s a kind of growing skepticism about their ability
growing skepticism about their ability
growing skepticism about their ability to take some of these technologies and
to take some of these technologies and
to take some of these technologies and actually do some of the things that they
actually do some of the things that they
actually do some of the things that they claim they’d be able to do in industry
claim they’d be able to do in industry
claim they’d be able to do in industry in government in society and I could
in government in society and I could
in government in society and I could spend all afternoon kind of it’s racing
spend all afternoon kind of it’s racing
spend all afternoon kind of it’s racing through all the various legal ethical
through all the various legal ethical
through all the various legal ethical technical data problems that these
technical data problems that these
technical data problems that these companies have had but I would get
companies have had but I would get
companies have had but I would get kicked off stage at some point but it
kicked off stage at some point but it
kicked off stage at some point but it all kind of boils down to a single kind
all kind of boils down to a single kind
all kind of boils down to a single kind of insight which is that it turns out
of insight which is that it turns out
of insight which is that it turns out that it may well be the running a kind
that it may well be the running a kind
that it may well be the running a kind of messy complex human system like the
of messy complex human system like the
of messy complex human system like the NHS is actually a lot more difficult
NHS is actually a lot more difficult
NHS is actually a lot more difficult than playing a board game now you may
than playing a board game now you may
than playing a board game now you may say but that’s slightly unfair that was
say but that’s slightly unfair that was
say but that’s slightly unfair that was sort of picking on the moon shots on the
sort of picking on the moon shots on the
sort of picking on the moon shots on the really sort of you know high-end kind
really sort of you know high-end kind
really sort of you know high-end kind abstracts and what about the sort of
abstracts and what about the sort of
abstracts and what about the sort of steady improvements that are being made
steady improvements that are being made
steady improvements that are being made by machine learning by AI and the tools
by machine learning by AI and the tools
by machine learning by AI and the tools that we use every day but even here if
that we use every day but even here if
that we use every day but even here if we look at some of the sort of major
we look at some of the sort of major
we look at some of the sort of major companies in the field if we take
companies in the field if we take
companies in the field if we take facebook for example this is an advert
facebook for example this is an advert
facebook for example this is an advert that I was served last week for height
that I was served last week for height
that I was served last week for height boosting shoes and to be honest that six
boosting shoes and to be honest that six
boosting shoes and to be honest that six will one I think I’ve already got a
will one I think I’ve already got a
will one I think I’ve already got a surplus of height if anything I need
surplus of height if anything I need
surplus of height if anything I need much more and yeah you know Facebook’s
much more and yeah you know Facebook’s
much more and yeah you know Facebook’s entire business is effectively
entire business is effectively
entire business is effectively advertising in terms of revenue and so
advertising in terms of revenue and so
advertising in terms of revenue and so you would think that if major advances
you would think that if major advances
you would think that if major advances were being made there were filtering
were being made there were filtering
were being made there were filtering through to their products this would be
through to their products this would be
through to their products this would be one of the first places that we’d see it
one of the first places that we’d see it
one of the first places that we’d see it and yet we still regularly served
and yet we still regularly served
and yet we still regularly served adverts that gb/s our best most often
adverts that gb/s our best most often
adverts that gb/s our best most often for things that you bought last week
for things that you bought last week
for things that you bought last week Google has many of the same problems
Google has many of the same problems
Google has many of the same problems when you look at the products and you
when you look at the products and you
when you look at the products and you look at some of the decisions their
look at some of the decisions their
look at some of the decisions their algorithms are not necessarily that
algorithms are not necessarily that
algorithms are not necessarily that smart this was the top stories
smart this was the top stories
smart this was the top stories highlighted during the Las Vegas
highlighted during the Las Vegas
highlighted during the Las Vegas shooting last month and obviously 4chan
shooting last month and obviously 4chan
shooting last month and obviously 4chan popping up in the results there with
popping up in the results there with
popping up in the results there with some completely dodgy stuff but also
some completely dodgy stuff but also
some completely dodgy stuff but also pressed Evo an Iranian propaganda outlet
pressed Evo an Iranian propaganda outlet
pressed Evo an Iranian propaganda outlet so there’s this real sort of disparity
so there’s this real sort of disparity
so there’s this real sort of disparity between the technology that the people
between the technology that the people
between the technology that the people are talking about what we’re actually
are talking about what we’re actually
are talking about what we’re actually seeing there are better examples and you
seeing there are better examples and you
seeing there are better examples and you know people point to things like
know people point to things like
know people point to things like self-driving cars for example or the
self-driving cars for example or the
self-driving cars for example or the rise of voice-activated personal
rise of voice-activated personal
rise of voice-activated personal assistants but when we start breaking
assistants but when we start breaking
assistants but when we start breaking down the advances that make those
down the advances that make those
down the advances that make those technologies possible it’s not
technologies possible it’s not
technologies possible it’s not necessarily improvements in intelligence
necessarily improvements in intelligence
necessarily improvements in intelligence that have enabled them often it’s things
that have enabled them often it’s things
that have enabled them often it’s things like in the case of self-driving car
like in the case of self-driving car
like in the case of self-driving car seat advances in lidar sensors and the
seat advances in lidar sensors and the
seat advances in lidar sensors and the various other sensors that are used if
various other sensors that are used if
various other sensors that are used if you look at Syria or Alexa actually
you look at Syria or Alexa actually
you look at Syria or Alexa actually improvements in microphone technology
improvements in microphone technology
improvements in microphone technology and miniaturization of helped to move
and miniaturization of helped to move
and miniaturization of helped to move them faster than improvements in how
them faster than improvements in how
them faster than improvements in how bases being processed um now all of this
bases being processed um now all of this
bases being processed um now all of this sounds a little bit negative and it’s
sounds a little bit negative and it’s
sounds a little bit negative and it’s not like I’m trying to suggest here that
not like I’m trying to suggest here that
not like I’m trying to suggest here that machine learning is useless or the
machine learning is useless or the
machine learning is useless or the reponses aren’t being made or the deep
reponses aren’t being made or the deep
reponses aren’t being made or the deep learning doesn’t ultimately have the
learning doesn’t ultimately have the
learning doesn’t ultimately have the potential to change the world but it
potential to change the world but it
potential to change the world but it feels like we’re so busy banging on
feels like we’re so busy banging on
feels like we’re so busy banging on about what might
about what might
about what might than in 30 years or 50 years of 70 years
than in 30 years or 50 years of 70 years
than in 30 years or 50 years of 70 years time that we’re not really giving people
time that we’re not really giving people
time that we’re not really giving people a sort of sensible or fair assessment of
a sort of sensible or fair assessment of
a sort of sensible or fair assessment of what’s happening right now and that’s
what’s happening right now and that’s
what’s happening right now and that’s bad for investors it’s bad for customers
bad for investors it’s bad for customers
bad for investors it’s bad for customers it’s bad for public understanding and
it’s bad for public understanding and
it’s bad for public understanding and it’s bad for policy based on this stuff
it’s bad for policy based on this stuff
it’s bad for policy based on this stuff and so in a way this is kind of like the
and so in a way this is kind of like the
and so in a way this is kind of like the an seats head silk in the sense that a
an seats head silk in the sense that a
an seats head silk in the sense that a lot of people like to come up and kind
lot of people like to come up and kind
lot of people like to come up and kind of sell you an amazing vision of what
of sell you an amazing vision of what
of sell you an amazing vision of what the world might be like in the future
the world might be like in the future
the world might be like in the future and what I’m kind of saying here is
and what I’m kind of saying here is
and what I’m kind of saying here is let’s stop banging on about the future
let’s stop banging on about the future
let’s stop banging on about the future quite so much that maybe focus a little
quite so much that maybe focus a little
quite so much that maybe focus a little bit more on the challenges and problems
bit more on the challenges and problems
bit more on the challenges and problems that we have right now because there’s
that we have right now because there’s
that we have right now because there’s plenty of them and well I’d say to
plenty of them and well I’d say to
plenty of them and well I’d say to anyone if you’re worried that an AI is
anyone if you’re worried that an AI is
anyone if you’re worried that an AI is going to steal your job in the next few
going to steal your job in the next few
going to steal your job in the next few years then just take a look at some of
years then just take a look at some of
years then just take a look at some of the products in the world around you and
the products in the world around you and
the products in the world around you and I think you’ll find there still
I think you’ll find there still
I think you’ll find there still reassuringly crap
reassuringly crap
reassuringly crap [Music]
[Music]
[Music] [Applause]
”
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