welcome to hit mojo shell 22 on this week’s show we’re going to talk about
week’s show we’re going to talk about
week’s show we’re going to talk about 2012 predictions that you’re going to
2012 predictions that you’re going to
2012 predictions that you’re going to deliver and I’m gonna give you guys my
deliver and I’m gonna give you guys my
deliver and I’m gonna give you guys my auntie prediction I can’t believe you
auntie prediction I can’t believe you
auntie prediction I can’t believe you talked me into this i hate predictions
talked me into this i hate predictions
talked me into this i hate predictions everyone just uses it an excuse to get
everyone just uses it an excuse to get
everyone just uses it an excuse to get some attention they run their mouths off
some attention they run their mouths off
some attention they run their mouths off no one’s ever right I don’t even have
no one’s ever right I don’t even have
no one’s ever right I don’t even have confidence in my own but that’s great
confidence in my own but that’s great
confidence in my own but that’s great that’s what you want to hear make sure
that’s what you want to hear make sure
that’s what you want to hear make sure why don’t listen to me you watch in fact
why don’t listen to me you watch in fact
why don’t listen to me you watch in fact you should just click the back button
you should just click the back button
you should just click the back button now alright um I got a few so what I got
now alright um I got a few so what I got
now alright um I got a few so what I got three here in total first I think Amazon
three here in total first I think Amazon
three here in total first I think Amazon is actually going to reach its tentacles
is actually going to reach its tentacles
is actually going to reach its tentacles a lot further and I know that sounds
a lot further and I know that sounds
a lot further and I know that sounds flimsy but they have their tentacles and
flimsy but they have their tentacles and
flimsy but they have their tentacles and everything right now but I think they’re
everything right now but I think they’re
everything right now but I think they’re going to become a household name more
going to become a household name more
going to become a household name more they’re going to start to get a lot more
they’re going to start to get a lot more
they’re going to start to get a lot more brand recognition for your you know
brand recognition for your you know
brand recognition for your you know doing things like video and cloud and
doing things like video and cloud and
doing things like video and cloud and all that kind of stuff so that is a
all that kind of stuff so that is a
all that kind of stuff so that is a flimsy but ok fair enough pretty it’s
flimsy but ok fair enough pretty it’s
flimsy but ok fair enough pretty it’s gonna probably save actually that when I
gonna probably save actually that when I
gonna probably save actually that when I go the other way um is the sky blue as
go the other way um is the sky blue as
go the other way um is the sky blue as well only on a sunny day the other one
well only on a sunny day the other one
well only on a sunny day the other one and this is more of a hope rather than a
and this is more of a hope rather than a
and this is more of a hope rather than a prediction but a Google will quietly
prediction but a Google will quietly
prediction but a Google will quietly kill off Google Plus that’s bold I don’t
kill off Google Plus that’s bold I don’t
kill off Google Plus that’s bold I don’t think so but ok maybe I don’t think
think so but ok maybe I don’t think
think so but ok maybe I don’t think within a year but these guys are sitting
within a year but these guys are sitting
within a year but these guys are sitting on like 40 billion dollars of cash
on like 40 billion dollars of cash
on like 40 billion dollars of cash they’re just gonna throw cash at
they’re just gonna throw cash at
they’re just gonna throw cash at everything until something kills
everything until something kills
everything until something kills facebook which way should really throw
facebook which way should really throw
facebook which way should really throw cash it’s something that works because
cash it’s something that works because
cash it’s something that works because nothing yeah anyways which brings me to
nothing yeah anyways which brings me to
nothing yeah anyways which brings me to my next prediction what you just said I
my next prediction what you just said I
my next prediction what you just said I think Facebook might actually hit a
think Facebook might actually hit a
think Facebook might actually hit a billion users in 2012 in 2012 well what
billion users in 2012 in 2012 well what
billion users in 2012 in 2012 well what they went from like five to eight
they went from like five to eight
they went from like five to eight hundred million in 2011 so I think you
hundred million in 2011 so I think you
hundred million in 2011 so I think you know yeah that’s possible i mean it’s i
know yeah that’s possible i mean it’s i
know yeah that’s possible i mean it’s i think that that I think the IPO will
think that that I think the IPO will
think that that I think the IPO will allow them to open up a lot of markets
allow them to open up a lot of markets
allow them to open up a lot of markets get a lot of press etc etc ok so those
get a lot of press etc etc ok so those
get a lot of press etc etc ok so those are your three I don’t just as a quick
are your three I don’t just as a quick
are your three I don’t just as a quick aside I think they’re going to eat into
aside I think they’re going to eat into
aside I think they’re going to eat into Google’s share as a marketing tool
Google’s share as a marketing tool
Google’s share as a marketing tool Google is huge on AdWords right now
Google is huge on AdWords right now
Google is huge on AdWords right now facebook is becoming a much more viable
facebook is becoming a much more viable
facebook is becoming a much more viable advertising and marketing platform
advertising and marketing platform
advertising and marketing platform everything from there adds to their
everything from there adds to their
everything from there adds to their pages to their data mining I think
pages to their data mining I think
pages to their data mining I think they’re gonna you’re going to start
they’re gonna you’re going to start
they’re gonna you’re going to start seeing people spending a little bit less
seeing people spending a little bit less
seeing people spending a little bit less on clicks from google and a little bit
on clicks from google and a little bit
on clicks from google and a little bit more on clicks like you’re actually
more on clicks like you’re actually
more on clicks like you’re actually going to see some budget shift maybe not
going to see some budget shift maybe not
going to see some budget shift maybe not a lot but it’ll be noticeable alright so
a lot but it’ll be noticeable alright so
a lot but it’ll be noticeable alright so bye aunty predictions you could read
bye aunty predictions you could read
bye aunty predictions you could read them and then all sort of chimed in to
them and then all sort of chimed in to
them and then all sort of chimed in to make
make
make this less you know ash going crazy on
this less you know ash going crazy on
this less you know ash going crazy on our ranch could you be any more
our ranch could you be any more
our ranch could you be any more ambiguous we will have standards and
ambiguous we will have standards and
ambiguous we will have standards and definition okay so this is an online
definition okay so this is an online
definition okay so this is an online video anti prediction each year we say
video anti prediction each year we say
video anti prediction each year we say how an online video we don’t know what a
how an online video we don’t know what a
how an online video we don’t know what a view is and we don’t know if it’s
view is and we don’t know if it’s
view is and we don’t know if it’s click-through rates the CTR that matters
click-through rates the CTR that matters
click-through rates the CTR that matters or whatever every year we say dishes the
or whatever every year we say dishes the
or whatever every year we say dishes the urine my good friend Paul come tonus of
urine my good friend Paul come tonus of
urine my good friend Paul come tonus of digitized said this is the year 2012 I
digitized said this is the year 2012 I
digitized said this is the year 2012 I think he’s wrong I think everybody is
think he’s wrong I think everybody is
think he’s wrong I think everybody is crazy we’re going to finally start to
crazy we’re going to finally start to
crazy we’re going to finally start to openly admit that we lack definitions
openly admit that we lack definitions
openly admit that we lack definitions and we lack standards but no way is 2012
and we lack standards but no way is 2012
and we lack standards but no way is 2012 where we all get together kumbaya hold
where we all get together kumbaya hold
where we all get together kumbaya hold hands and say Tata this is what defines
hands and say Tata this is what defines
hands and say Tata this is what defines a view it is a you know blah blah blah
a view it is a you know blah blah blah
a view it is a you know blah blah blah blah it’s not gonna happen it will
blah it’s not gonna happen it will
blah it’s not gonna happen it will probably never happen so don’t count on
probably never happen so don’t count on
probably never happen so don’t count on that all right okay really the year of
that all right okay really the year of
that all right okay really the year of mobile every year isn’t like 2005 oh
mobile every year isn’t like 2005 oh
mobile every year isn’t like 2005 oh it’s in 1994 you know every year is just
it’s in 1994 you know every year is just
it’s in 1994 you know every year is just used a year of mobile listen Mobile’s
used a year of mobile listen Mobile’s
used a year of mobile listen Mobile’s here granted it’s been a lot of text and
here granted it’s been a lot of text and
here granted it’s been a lot of text and images and you know back in the day
images and you know back in the day
images and you know back in the day screen savers or you know tech ringtone
screen savers or you know tech ringtone
screen savers or you know tech ringtone sorry whatever the bottom line is you
sorry whatever the bottom line is you
sorry whatever the bottom line is you are getting a lot of video but it’s
are getting a lot of video but it’s
are getting a lot of video but it’s still going to be small and the growth
still going to be small and the growth
still going to be small and the growth rates are great don’t get me wrong but
rates are great don’t get me wrong but
rates are great don’t get me wrong but it’s not even an ideal format to
it’s not even an ideal format to
it’s not even an ideal format to advertise but we’re all running around
advertise but we’re all running around
advertise but we’re all running around like a few years ago was like imagine if
like a few years ago was like imagine if
like a few years ago was like imagine if you’re walking by starbucks and you get
you’re walking by starbucks and you get
you’re walking by starbucks and you get a text message saying listen if that
a text message saying listen if that
a text message saying listen if that ever happens I will blow up starbucks I
ever happens I will blow up starbucks I
ever happens I will blow up starbucks I don’t want to get a text message
don’t want to get a text message
don’t want to get a text message everywhere I go so this notion that next
everywhere I go so this notion that next
everywhere I go so this notion that next year’s that your video on mobile and
year’s that your video on mobile and
year’s that your video on mobile and it’s going to be all that shut up it’s
it’s going to be all that shut up it’s
it’s going to be all that shut up it’s going to be small online video is small
going to be small online video is small
going to be small online video is small mobile video is going to be even smaller
mobile video is going to be even smaller
mobile video is going to be even smaller yes thing I don’t think there’s a people
yes thing I don’t think there’s a people
yes thing I don’t think there’s a people understand mobile enough to understand
understand mobile enough to understand
understand mobile enough to understand what the year of mobile would actually
what the year of mobile would actually
what the year of mobile would actually entail like well put well but next all
entail like well put well but next all
entail like well put well but next all right um death of television I am so
right um death of television I am so
right um death of television I am so freaking fed up of hearing online media
freaking fed up of hearing online media
freaking fed up of hearing online media people like myself say telugu only media
people like myself say telugu only media
people like myself say telugu only media that’s not losing much it first of all
that’s not losing much it first of all
that’s not losing much it first of all television is stronger than ever yes in
television is stronger than ever yes in
television is stronger than ever yes in 10 years in 20 years and maybe five
10 years in 20 years and maybe five
10 years in 20 years and maybe five years there’s going to be some loss of
years there’s going to be some loss of
years there’s going to be some loss of revenue you know there’s going to be a
revenue you know there’s going to be a
revenue you know there’s going to be a lot of people are not watching as much
lot of people are not watching as much
lot of people are not watching as much TV we get that but this notion that next
TV we get that but this notion that next
TV we get that but this notion that next year TV is just going to lose somehow 20
year TV is just going to lose somehow 20
year TV is just going to lose somehow 20 billion dollars and that’s all going to
billion dollars and that’s all going to
billion dollars and that’s all going to travel to online you’re effing crazy not
travel to online you’re effing crazy not
travel to online you’re effing crazy not going to happen televisions going to be
going to happen televisions going to be
going to happen televisions going to be actually stronger way too much clutter
actually stronger way too much clutter
actually stronger way too much clutter on Twitter and Facebook advertisers are
on Twitter and Facebook advertisers are
on Twitter and Facebook advertisers are going to keep spending a lot of money on
going to keep spending a lot of money on
going to keep spending a lot of money on and the reason for that is this notion
and the reason for that is this notion
and the reason for that is this notion of banner blindness that you know you
of banner blindness that you know you
of banner blindness that you know you could see your banner you don’t see your
could see your banner you don’t see your
could see your banner you don’t see your the banners you don’t see the pre-rolls
the banners you don’t see the pre-rolls
the banners you don’t see the pre-rolls whereas if you put a freaking coca-cola
whereas if you put a freaking coca-cola
whereas if you put a freaking coca-cola cup on the American Idol table people
cup on the American Idol table people
cup on the American Idol table people talk about that even if they go even if
talk about that even if they go even if
talk about that even if they go even if it’s cynical it’s part of the discussion
it’s cynical it’s part of the discussion
it’s cynical it’s part of the discussion it’s there a media planner could say
it’s there a media planner could say
it’s there a media planner could say look same thing with print print took a
look same thing with print print took a
look same thing with print print took a long time in in two thousand and I was a
long time in in two thousand and I was a
long time in in two thousand and I was a task man we always waited for print to
task man we always waited for print to
task man we always waited for print to die and you know it’s still around mind
die and you know it’s still around mind
die and you know it’s still around mind you with its took 10 15 20 years the
you with its took 10 15 20 years the
you with its took 10 15 20 years the idea was a media planner could open up
idea was a media planner could open up
idea was a media planner could open up and say listen I place my you know ad
and say listen I place my you know ad
and say listen I place my you know ad for coach or you know Samsonite in this
for coach or you know Samsonite in this
for coach or you know Samsonite in this fricking magazine it’s there don’t fire
fricking magazine it’s there don’t fire
fricking magazine it’s there don’t fire me it’s the same thing with TV you could
me it’s the same thing with TV you could
me it’s the same thing with TV you could see the ads where’s online that’s a sea
see the ads where’s online that’s a sea
see the ads where’s online that’s a sea of clutter and crap and we keep thinking
of clutter and crap and we keep thinking
of clutter and crap and we keep thinking telchines going to but she’s not bunny
telchines going to but she’s not bunny
telchines going to but she’s not bunny about the online space I just want to
about the online space I just want to
about the online space I just want to add this is people put by real estate
add this is people put by real estate
add this is people put by real estate online and then they argue over the
online and then they argue over the
online and then they argue over the value or like how many clicks or how
value or like how many clicks or how
value or like how many clicks or how many impressions that God but you
many impressions that God but you
many impressions that God but you actually know where with TV although you
actually know where with TV although you
actually know where with TV although you can say well I saw a physical add up
can say well I saw a physical add up
can say well I saw a physical add up here but like you you actually don’t
here but like you you actually don’t
here but like you you actually don’t know how many people got up from their
know how many people got up from their
know how many people got up from their couch went and got a snack during the
couch went and got a snack during the
couch went and got a snack during the commercial break yeah I’m gonna touch on
commercial break yeah I’m gonna touch on
commercial break yeah I’m gonna touch on that an upcoming once all right so cord
that an upcoming once all right so cord
that an upcoming once all right so cord cutting is real what do you mean okay so
cutting is real what do you mean okay so
cutting is real what do you mean okay so yes there are a there is a number of
yes there are a there is a number of
yes there are a there is a number of people especially men in that lets say
people especially men in that lets say
people especially men in that lets say 13 to 24 demographic that are either not
13 to 24 demographic that are either not
13 to 24 demographic that are either not subscribing to cable or cutting their
subscribing to cable or cutting their
subscribing to cable or cutting their cable but guess what a lot of those guys
cable but guess what a lot of those guys
cable but guess what a lot of those guys then a few months later are like you
then a few months later are like you
then a few months later are like you know what I don’t really get much news i
know what I don’t really get much news i
know what I don’t really get much news i don’t get as much sports i miss HBO i
don’t get as much sports i miss HBO i
don’t get as much sports i miss HBO i miss ESPN i miss whatever 17 other
miss ESPN i miss whatever 17 other
miss ESPN i miss whatever 17 other things so i’m going to go back to TV or
things so i’m going to go back to TV or
things so i’m going to go back to TV or i’ll still watch TV in one form or
i’ll still watch TV in one form or
i’ll still watch TV in one form or another so yes the trends are showing
another so yes the trends are showing
another so yes the trends are showing that there’s a percentage growth of cord
that there’s a percentage growth of cord
that there’s a percentage growth of cord cutters or people that don’t subscribe
cutters or people that don’t subscribe
cutters or people that don’t subscribe to cable but again it’s such a fringe
to cable but again it’s such a fringe
to cable but again it’s such a fringe movement it’s almost like saying i won’t
movement it’s almost like saying i won’t
movement it’s almost like saying i won’t say anything crazy I just it’s happening
say anything crazy I just it’s happening
say anything crazy I just it’s happening but it’s not going to kill television
but it’s not going to kill television
but it’s not going to kill television it’s it’s still a very small phenomena
it’s it’s still a very small phenomena
it’s it’s still a very small phenomena you know when the cable company will
you know when the cable company will
you know when the cable company will actually get me back when I could just
actually get me back when I could just
actually get me back when I could just watch their stuff online plain and
watch their stuff online plain and
watch their stuff online plain and simple well this is why just a little
simple well this is why just a little
simple well this is why just a little tangent you are seeing a dichotomy
tangent you are seeing a dichotomy
tangent you are seeing a dichotomy between the traditional media companies
between the traditional media companies
between the traditional media companies like let’s say the foxes and the
like let’s say the foxes and the
like let’s say the foxes and the Disney’s who really want to you know
Disney’s who really want to you know
Disney’s who really want to you know therefore the status quo because they’re
therefore the status quo because they’re
therefore the status quo because they’re making all this money from you know
making all this money from you know
making all this money from you know cable fees carriage fees and all that
cable fees carriage fees and all that
cable fees carriage fees and all that and then you are seeing the sort of
and then you are seeing the sort of
and then you are seeing the sort of blurriness around
blurriness around
blurriness around access guys verizon comcast and comcast
access guys verizon comcast and comcast
access guys verizon comcast and comcast interestingly is also a media company
interestingly is also a media company
interestingly is also a media company now through you know bc and all that
now through you know bc and all that
now through you know bc and all that verizon AT&T that the access guys that
verizon AT&T that the access guys that
verizon AT&T that the access guys that want to be more flexible they want to
want to be more flexible they want to
want to be more flexible they want to give more you know freedom to choose and
give more you know freedom to choose and
give more you know freedom to choose and watch what you want but my point is
watch what you want but my point is
watch what you want but my point is cable and television are very strong
cable and television are very strong
cable and television are very strong it’s if you have money you’re going to
it’s if you have money you’re going to
it’s if you have money you’re going to get the attention of content owners and
get the attention of content owners and
get the attention of content owners and content owners are not going to just
content owners are not going to just
content owners are not going to just want to put everything online after
want to put everything online after
want to put everything online after making truck loads of money from cable
making truck loads of money from cable
making truck loads of money from cable so this notion that cord cutting is here
so this notion that cord cutting is here
so this notion that cord cutting is here and it’s going to decimate TV give it
and it’s going to decimate TV give it
and it’s going to decimate TV give it five years give it seven years but not
five years give it seven years but not
five years give it seven years but not by the way which brings us to your next
by the way which brings us to your next
by the way which brings us to your next aunty prediction apple TV or google TV
aunty prediction apple TV or google TV
aunty prediction apple TV or google TV chatting over all of these things i
chatting over all of these things i
chatting over all of these things i think they’re gonna make a splash tour
think they’re gonna make a splash tour
think they’re gonna make a splash tour not really going to make a big wave i
not really going to make a big wave i
not really going to make a big wave i think over the top connected devices
think over the top connected devices
think over the top connected devices same thing in five years is going to be
same thing in five years is going to be
same thing in five years is going to be really big it’s sort of it’s the other
really big it’s sort of it’s the other
really big it’s sort of it’s the other flip side of cord cutting any listen I I
flip side of cord cutting any listen I I
flip side of cord cutting any listen I I risk electrocution every time I consider
risk electrocution every time I consider
risk electrocution every time I consider getting a set-top the box and start
getting a set-top the box and start
getting a set-top the box and start plugging it away and I’m an online video
plugging it away and I’m an online video
plugging it away and I’m an online video expert so average population likes
expert so average population likes
expert so average population likes having a stupid box and just turning on
having a stupid box and just turning on
having a stupid box and just turning on the TV leaning back I think that’ll be a
the TV leaning back I think that’ll be a
the TV leaning back I think that’ll be a generational thing because really you
generational thing because really you
generational thing because really you know right now most consumers grew up
know right now most consumers grew up
know right now most consumers grew up with the television it’s hard for them
with the television it’s hard for them
with the television it’s hard for them to let that go it’s the kids growing up
to let that go it’s the kids growing up
to let that go it’s the kids growing up today who you know are growing up with
today who you know are growing up with
today who you know are growing up with tablets and super low yeah wired to
tablets and super low yeah wired to
tablets and super low yeah wired to their mobile that might be the ones to
their mobile that might be the ones to
their mobile that might be the ones to give up I think conventional television
give up I think conventional television
give up I think conventional television another ambiguous one where’s the ROI we
another ambiguous one where’s the ROI we
another ambiguous one where’s the ROI we keep saying you know you gotta show more
keep saying you know you gotta show more
keep saying you know you gotta show more return on investment to marketers you
return on investment to marketers you
return on investment to marketers you know what the irony is television is
know what the irony is television is
know what the irony is television is visible but you can’t track the ROI so I
visible but you can’t track the ROI so I
visible but you can’t track the ROI so I think that it’s very sexy to keep saying
think that it’s very sexy to keep saying
think that it’s very sexy to keep saying oh my God we’re going to you know i’m
oh my God we’re going to you know i’m
oh my God we’re going to you know i’m all for accountability and all that eric
all for accountability and all that eric
all for accountability and all that eric schmidt’s as advertising is the last
schmidt’s as advertising is the last
schmidt’s as advertising is the last bastion of accountability in corporate
bastion of accountability in corporate
bastion of accountability in corporate america listen guys it’s not next year
america listen guys it’s not next year
america listen guys it’s not next year all of a sudden that ROI is going to be
all of a sudden that ROI is going to be
all of a sudden that ROI is going to be so important advertisers just want to
so important advertisers just want to
so important advertisers just want to make sure that they didn’t burn their
make sure that they didn’t burn their
make sure that they didn’t burn their money in the sense that they gave you a
money in the sense that they gave you a
money in the sense that they gave you a check and you ran the stupid banner
check and you ran the stupid banner
check and you ran the stupid banner below the fold you know without telling
below the fold you know without telling
below the fold you know without telling them they want to make sure that things
them they want to make sure that things
them they want to make sure that things are visible it’s more important than the
are visible it’s more important than the
are visible it’s more important than the ROI factor because at the end of the day
ROI factor because at the end of the day
ROI factor because at the end of the day all advertising is negative ROI in the
all advertising is negative ROI in the
all advertising is negative ROI in the short term reality fair enough i
short term reality fair enough i
short term reality fair enough i actually agree um advertising will be
actually agree um advertising will be
actually agree um advertising will be less robotic yeah i mean this is the
less robotic yeah i mean this is the
less robotic yeah i mean this is the notion that you know ad exchanges and ad
notion that you know ad exchanges and ad
notion that you know ad exchanges and ad networks are adding all this behavior
networks are adding all this behavior
networks are adding all this behavior targeting and people say like oh next
targeting and people say like oh next
targeting and people say like oh next year you’re going to start to go back to
year you’re going to start to go back to
year you’re going to start to go back to human beings making decisions i would
human beings making decisions i would
human beings making decisions i would love
love
love for that to happen I would love for
for that to happen I would love for
for that to happen I would love for there to be less you know that’s bundle
there to be less you know that’s bundle
there to be less you know that’s bundle audiences and pass it off as Triple A
audiences and pass it off as Triple A
audiences and pass it off as Triple A you know assets that’s all going to
you know assets that’s all going to
you know assets that’s all going to happen and i’ll tell you why
happen and i’ll tell you why
happen and i’ll tell you why unfortunately it should happen it won’t
unfortunately it should happen it won’t
unfortunately it should happen it won’t happen because you are basically paying
happen because you are basically paying
happen because you are basically paying very young media planners less money and
very young media planners less money and
very young media planners less money and asking them to do to make a lot of
asking them to do to make a lot of
asking them to do to make a lot of decisions you make a lot decision so for
decisions you make a lot decision so for
decisions you make a lot decision so for them if they can go on a dashboard and
them if they can go on a dashboard and
them if they can go on a dashboard and say i’m going to check off these seven
say i’m going to check off these seven
say i’m going to check off these seven audiences on these eight sites boom i’m
audiences on these eight sites boom i’m
audiences on these eight sites boom i’m gonna go now have a martini and you know
gonna go now have a martini and you know
gonna go now have a martini and you know season at that if one of the big
season at that if one of the big
season at that if one of the big agencies said we want to offer advertise
agencies said we want to offer advertise
agencies said we want to offer advertise advertisers better customer service or
advertisers better customer service or
advertisers better customer service or better ROI and we’re going to start
better ROI and we’re going to start
better ROI and we’re going to start getting real human beings to make these
getting real human beings to make these
getting real human beings to make these decisions they would be competed
decisions they would be competed
decisions they would be competed completely out of the marketplace before
completely out of the marketplace before
completely out of the marketplace before they could bring over enough new
they could bring over enough new
they could bring over enough new business because all it would take is
business because all it would take is
business because all it would take is their main competitor to keep being
their main competitor to keep being
their main competitor to keep being robotic keep their costs low inches yep
robotic keep their costs low inches yep
robotic keep their costs low inches yep bring them all right um publishers will
bring them all right um publishers will
bring them all right um publishers will get a clue so what the hell do I mean by
get a clue so what the hell do I mean by
get a clue so what the hell do I mean by this I can’t believe after the display
this I can’t believe after the display
this I can’t believe after the display ad networks destroyed and decimated the
ad networks destroyed and decimated the
ad networks destroyed and decimated the publishers business by publishers giving
publishers business by publishers giving
publishers business by publishers giving them a backdoor access they said never
them a backdoor access they said never
them a backdoor access they said never again we’re going to go and fight the
again we’re going to go and fight the
again we’re going to go and fight the display ad networks and will never let
display ad networks and will never let
display ad networks and will never let this happen in video uh you know what
this happen in video uh you know what
this happen in video uh you know what the George Bush say fool me once shame
the George Bush say fool me once shame
the George Bush say fool me once shame on me fool me twice shame on me whatever
on me fool me twice shame on me whatever
on me fool me twice shame on me whatever same thing happened that the publishers
same thing happened that the publishers
same thing happened that the publishers let the video ad networks in through the
let the video ad networks in through the
let the video ad networks in through the back door and they basically handed the
back door and they basically handed the
back door and they basically handed the market to ad exchanges and display ad
market to ad exchanges and display ad
market to ad exchanges and display ad networks and publishers and I mean we’re
networks and publishers and I mean we’re
networks and publishers and I mean we’re I mean I’m not saying we’re any
I mean I’m not saying we’re any
I mean I’m not saying we’re any different or worse I just think
different or worse I just think
different or worse I just think publishers are stupid for letting this
publishers are stupid for letting this
publishers are stupid for letting this happen again and they have no one to
happen again and they have no one to
happen again and they have no one to blame but themselves okay number nine
blame but themselves okay number nine
blame but themselves okay number nine tablets will blah blah blah yeah I mean
tablets will blah blah blah yeah I mean
tablets will blah blah blah yeah I mean the idea that tablets are going to come
the idea that tablets are going to come
the idea that tablets are going to come and part the Seas and money is going to
and part the Seas and money is going to
and part the Seas and money is going to flow into for old media is crazy i
flow into for old media is crazy i
flow into for old media is crazy i thinkI on winner of one or media Rolling
thinkI on winner of one or media Rolling
thinkI on winner of one or media Rolling Stone publisher is right that generally
Stone publisher is right that generally
Stone publisher is right that generally speaking traditional media companies are
speaking traditional media companies are
speaking traditional media companies are going to overestimate the potential
going to overestimate the potential
going to overestimate the potential opportunity of tablets and they will
opportunity of tablets and they will
opportunity of tablets and they will keep under estimating the threat of the
keep under estimating the threat of the
keep under estimating the threat of the internet you know and that’s a
internet you know and that’s a
internet you know and that’s a combination for disaster but they don’t
combination for disaster but they don’t
combination for disaster but they don’t get it what baffles me is people don’t
get it what baffles me is people don’t
get it what baffles me is people don’t realize that tablets are just like one
realize that tablets are just like one
realize that tablets are just like one other device they’re nothing special
other device they’re nothing special
other device they’re nothing special like oh my god we have home computers
like oh my god we have home computers
like oh my god we have home computers that was a huge thing oh my god we have
that was a huge thing oh my god we have
that was a huge thing oh my god we have laptops but none of these actually if in
laptops but none of these actually if in
laptops but none of these actually if in fact if any of these devices did
fact if any of these devices did
fact if any of these devices did anything they rode it you know
anything they rode it you know
anything they rode it you know businesses that we’re already there all
businesses that we’re already there all
businesses that we’re already there all right um hyper distribution will cure
right um hyper distribution will cure
right um hyper distribution will cure polio I like this one yeah well
polio I like this one yeah well
polio I like this one yeah well basically we’ve had it’s funny how you
basically we’ve had it’s funny how you
basically we’ve had it’s funny how you can
can
can sorry I just want to say it’s curious
sorry I just want to say it’s curious
sorry I just want to say it’s curious how you named polio because we beat that
how you named polio because we beat that
how you named polio because we beat that but you never put down like AIDS or so
but you never put down like AIDS or so
but you never put down like AIDS or so well because that’s an ongoing struggle
well because that’s an ongoing struggle
well because that’s an ongoing struggle right so well that’s the idea that hyper
right so well that’s the idea that hyper
right so well that’s the idea that hyper distribution we’ve had this love and
distribution we’ve had this love and
distribution we’ve had this love and hate relationship when you two came
hate relationship when you two came
hate relationship when you two came along the embedded video the idea is
along the embedded video the idea is
along the embedded video the idea is what’s happened is basically publishers
what’s happened is basically publishers
what’s happened is basically publishers who produce content have lost that
who produce content have lost that
who produce content have lost that environment in which they could sell ads
environment in which they could sell ads
environment in which they could sell ads so you give your video on to other sites
so you give your video on to other sites
so you give your video on to other sites and I think that will continue to be a
and I think that will continue to be a
and I think that will continue to be a really big part but therein lies the
really big part but therein lies the
really big part but therein lies the challenge of content you have to let
challenge of content you have to let
challenge of content you have to let your content flow and go where the
your content flow and go where the
your content flow and go where the audiences are but by doing so you dilute
audiences are but by doing so you dilute
audiences are but by doing so you dilute your selling potential and that means
your selling potential and that means
your selling potential and that means that yes hyper distribution will be
that yes hyper distribution will be
that yes hyper distribution will be really really key but that means that it
really really key but that means that it
really really key but that means that it becomes even harder to generate revenue
becomes even harder to generate revenue
becomes even harder to generate revenue so it’s like a double-edged sword it’s
so it’s like a double-edged sword it’s
so it’s like a double-edged sword it’s not this silver bullet that will allow
not this silver bullet that will allow
not this silver bullet that will allow producers to make more money it’s
producers to make more money it’s
producers to make more money it’s actually going to make it tougher but
actually going to make it tougher but
actually going to make it tougher but nobody comes out and says that they go
nobody comes out and says that they go
nobody comes out and says that they go out creates wonderful opportunities yes
out creates wonderful opportunities yes
out creates wonderful opportunities yes but it also comes with a lot of threats
but it also comes with a lot of threats
but it also comes with a lot of threats okay this one I’m interested to discuss
okay this one I’m interested to discuss
okay this one I’m interested to discuss number 11 the rise of branded content
number 11 the rise of branded content
number 11 the rise of branded content yeah every year we as producers I mean
yeah every year we as producers I mean
yeah every year we as producers I mean we produce largely infotainment pure
we produce largely infotainment pure
we produce largely infotainment pure content it’s not like a sponsor’s
content it’s not like a sponsor’s
content it’s not like a sponsor’s necessarily paying us although
necessarily paying us although
necessarily paying us although eventually we will do that and I think
eventually we will do that and I think
eventually we will do that and I think the bottom line is every year we expect
the bottom line is every year we expect
the bottom line is every year we expect branded content to take off but those
branded content to take off but those
branded content to take off but those executions are really tough so I think
executions are really tough so I think
executions are really tough so I think it will still see pre-rolls kick ass and
it will still see pre-rolls kick ass and
it will still see pre-rolls kick ass and branded content will remain like a
branded content will remain like a
branded content will remain like a fringe thing so weird we have such a
fringe thing so weird we have such a
fringe thing so weird we have such a different definition of branded content
different definition of branded content
different definition of branded content you and I you think strictly in terms of
you and I you think strictly in terms of
you and I you think strictly in terms of video and you just like I think article
video and you just like I think article
video and you just like I think article like I think everything like a sponsored
like I think everything like a sponsored
like I think everything like a sponsored survey on Facebook you know like that
survey on Facebook you know like that
survey on Facebook you know like that yeah but this is our online video aunty
yeah but this is our online video aunty
yeah but this is our online video aunty predictions right right all right a
predictions right right all right a
predictions right right all right a couple more and we’re done um
couple more and we’re done um
couple more and we’re done um consolidation every year we keep I
consolidation every year we keep I
consolidation every year we keep I traveled so much to New York San Fran
traveled so much to New York San Fran
traveled so much to New York San Fran and LA and it was for business
and LA and it was for business
and LA and it was for business development sales corporate development
development sales corporate development
development sales corporate development while I everybody in the industry of
while I everybody in the industry of
while I everybody in the industry of online video is waiting for something to
online video is waiting for something to
online video is waiting for something to happen because investors have put in
happen because investors have put in
happen because investors have put in their money in 2003 2004-2005 for VCS as
their money in 2003 2004-2005 for VCS as
their money in 2003 2004-2005 for VCS as much as they say we go along and they
much as they say we go along and they
much as they say we go along and they don’t I mean after seven years they want
don’t I mean after seven years they want
don’t I mean after seven years they want their money out and frankly there’s way
their money out and frankly there’s way
their money out and frankly there’s way too much money in the marketplace to
too much money in the marketplace to
too much money in the marketplace to justify the potential exits there’s not
justify the potential exits there’s not
justify the potential exits there’s not that much revenue yet so every year
that much revenue yet so every year
that much revenue yet so every year everybody’s waiting for the shoe to fall
everybody’s waiting for the shoe to fall
everybody’s waiting for the shoe to fall and for there to be a lot of
and for there to be a lot of
and for there to be a lot of consolidation roll-up divestment
consolidation roll-up divestment
consolidation roll-up divestment whatever this year you would think I
whatever this year you would think I
whatever this year you would think I think this one actually might happen
think this one actually might happen
think this one actually might happen just because a lot of companies are
just because a lot of companies are
just because a lot of companies are running out of gas but
running out of gas but
running out of gas but the same time why would it happen now it
the same time why would it happen now it
the same time why would it happen now it hasn’t happened the past 34 years so
hasn’t happened the past 34 years so
hasn’t happened the past 34 years so don’t expect this to happen we can find
don’t expect this to happen we can find
don’t expect this to happen we can find ourselves in 12 months saying wow
ourselves in 12 months saying wow
ourselves in 12 months saying wow there’s all these companies that are
there’s all these companies that are
there’s all these companies that are sort of running on fumes when is there
sort of running on fumes when is there
sort of running on fumes when is there going to be a big consolidation okay
going to be a big consolidation okay
going to be a big consolidation okay last one last one VCS are finally going
last one last one VCS are finally going
last one last one VCS are finally going to wake up and smell the Java yeah i
to wake up and smell the Java yeah i
to wake up and smell the Java yeah i mean the notion that you know they like
mean the notion that you know they like
mean the notion that you know they like distribution technology video
distribution technology video
distribution technology video advertising and all that makes sense
advertising and all that makes sense
advertising and all that makes sense it’s what they’re do but i actually
it’s what they’re do but i actually
it’s what they’re do but i actually think that content has become like
think that content has become like
think that content has become like software where it’s like the marginal
software where it’s like the marginal
software where it’s like the marginal production and distribution costs are
production and distribution costs are
production and distribution costs are zero so once you produce it you can
zero so once you produce it you can
zero so once you produce it you can leverage things like youtube to reduce
leverage things like youtube to reduce
leverage things like youtube to reduce your risk of distribution marketing and
your risk of distribution marketing and
your risk of distribution marketing and you can build a nice business around
you can build a nice business around
you can build a nice business around that but again i don’t think i know for
that but again i don’t think i know for
that but again i don’t think i know for a fact that there’s going to be a couple
a fact that there’s going to be a couple
a fact that there’s going to be a couple VCS who are going to launch these
VCS who are going to launch these
VCS who are going to launch these content oriented funds but two does not
content oriented funds but two does not
content oriented funds but two does not really make a massive trend right one of
really make a massive trend right one of
really make a massive trend right one of them is supposed to be up by 11 2012
them is supposed to be up by 11 2012
them is supposed to be up by 11 2012 that january first we’ll see if that’s
that january first we’ll see if that’s
that january first we’ll see if that’s the case if they announce it or not so
the case if they announce it or not so
the case if they announce it or not so long story short this is like the
long story short this is like the
long story short this is like the previous one something that is long
previous one something that is long
previous one something that is long overdue for VCS to say ok distribution
overdue for VCS to say ok distribution
overdue for VCS to say ok distribution you got to pick one come you got to
you got to pick one come you got to
you got to pick one come you got to invest in a thousand companies for one
invest in a thousand companies for one
invest in a thousand companies for one of them to be really successful and it
of them to be really successful and it
of them to be really successful and it consider that VCS in the last decade
consider that VCS in the last decade
consider that VCS in the last decade have returned one percent on an annual
have returned one percent on an annual
have returned one percent on an annual basis for the amount of risk that they
basis for the amount of risk that they
basis for the amount of risk that they take you would think hey something is
take you would think hey something is
take you would think hey something is broken let’s start a lesson in content
broken let’s start a lesson in content
broken let’s start a lesson in content but I’ve been saying that since 2006 and
but I’ve been saying that since 2006 and
but I’ve been saying that since 2006 and I’ve been wrong and others have been too
I’ve been wrong and others have been too
I’ve been wrong and others have been too so that’s probably anti prediction
so that’s probably anti prediction
so that’s probably anti prediction number 13 and it’s funny I’m going to be
number 13 and it’s funny I’m going to be
number 13 and it’s funny I’m going to be really cynical about human beings in
really cynical about human beings in
really cynical about human beings in general here it’s everyone is operating
general here it’s everyone is operating
general here it’s everyone is operating under the assumption that VCS have to
under the assumption that VCS have to
under the assumption that VCS have to actually bring back a return something
actually bring back a return something
actually bring back a return something greater than let’s say one percent
greater than let’s say one percent
greater than let’s say one percent really what it comes down to is vc’s you
really what it comes down to is vc’s you
really what it comes down to is vc’s you just have to keep their wine stellar
just have to keep their wine stellar
just have to keep their wine stellar stock stock well and you said it not me
stock stock well and you said it not me
stock stock well and you said it not me ok now the vc’s do make money and in
ok now the vc’s do make money and in
ok now the vc’s do make money and in sort of management administration fees
sort of management administration fees
sort of management administration fees and as much as they want the home run
and as much as they want the home run
and as much as they want the home run the reality is the funny thing about VCS
the reality is the funny thing about VCS
the reality is the funny thing about VCS I mean finish off on this vc’s remind me
I mean finish off on this vc’s remind me
I mean finish off on this vc’s remind me of you know the analogy of you only have
of you know the analogy of you only have
of you know the analogy of you only have to outrun let’s say you’re in a forest
to outrun let’s say you’re in a forest
to outrun let’s say you’re in a forest and there’s a bear chasing you you only
and there’s a bear chasing you you only
and there’s a bear chasing you you only got outrun you I got outrun you because
got outrun you I got outrun you because
got outrun you I got outrun you because the bear will eat you not the bear and
the bear will eat you not the bear and
the bear will eat you not the bear and it’s the same thing we seized vc’s when
it’s the same thing we seized vc’s when
it’s the same thing we seized vc’s when I talk to them they’re like I other VCS
I talk to them they’re like I other VCS
I talk to them they’re like I other VCS are crazy they’re stupid they don’t know
are crazy they’re stupid they don’t know
are crazy they’re stupid they don’t know what they’re doing there’s too many VCS
what they’re doing there’s too many VCS
what they’re doing there’s too many VCS and I almost want to go you know there’s
and I almost want to go you know there’s
and I almost want to go you know there’s a few that are rock stars great have the
a few that are rock stars great have the
a few that are rock stars great have the returns to prove it but I’m like well
returns to prove it but I’m like well
returns to prove it but I’m like well what have you done in the last 10 years
what have you done in the last 10 years
what have you done in the last 10 years you basically raised all this money from
you basically raised all this money from
you basically raised all this money from pension funds in whatever you haven’t
pension funds in whatever you haven’t
pension funds in whatever you haven’t shown any return your
shown any return your
shown any return your on the fund so it’s like you’re cynical
on the fund so it’s like you’re cynical
on the fund so it’s like you’re cynical about your peers but I’m cynical about
about your peers but I’m cynical about
about your peers but I’m cynical about you again so that’s been my anti
you again so that’s been my anti
you again so that’s been my anti predictions hopefully I’m wrong and all
predictions hopefully I’m wrong and all
predictions hopefully I’m wrong and all these 13 become true and that means like
these 13 become true and that means like
these 13 become true and that means like we’re all awash in cash but likely you
we’re all awash in cash but likely you
we’re all awash in cash but likely you know where this is going not going to
know where this is going not going to
know where this is going not going to happen thank you for watching see you
happen thank you for watching see you
happen thank you for watching see you next week same time same place nothing
next week same time same place nothing
next week same time same place nothing but good times 22
”
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