[Laughter] we aren’t encouraged to use our
we aren’t encouraged to use our
we aren’t encouraged to use our imagination very often and I think we
imagination very often and I think we
imagination very often and I think we should be this became real to me with my
should be this became real to me with my
should be this became real to me with my friend well we’ll call her patty and
friend well we’ll call her patty and
friend well we’ll call her patty and Patty and I used to go hiking together
Patty and I used to go hiking together
Patty and I used to go hiking together and she would complain about back pain
and she would complain about back pain
and she would complain about back pain and she would tell me about the
and she would tell me about the
and she would tell me about the different ways that she would treat that
different ways that she would treat that
different ways that she would treat that back pain which included going to an
back pain which included going to an
back pain which included going to an acupuncturist seeing an herbalist even
acupuncturist seeing an herbalist even
acupuncturist seeing an herbalist even some homeopathy and by the time she went
some homeopathy and by the time she went
some homeopathy and by the time she went to a doctor the tumor was so large there
to a doctor the tumor was so large there
to a doctor the tumor was so large there was very little she could do and very
was very little she could do and very
was very little she could do and very little the doctors could do and she
little the doctors could do and she
little the doctors could do and she passed away shortly thereafter now we
passed away shortly thereafter now we
passed away shortly thereafter now we are all like patty we’re going through
are all like patty we’re going through
are all like patty we’re going through our lives trying to find the truth and
our lives trying to find the truth and
our lives trying to find the truth and being hampered by our human limitations
being hampered by our human limitations
being hampered by our human limitations and our human biases and these biases
and our human biases and these biases
and our human biases and these biases are go by the name of confirmation bias
are go by the name of confirmation bias
are go by the name of confirmation bias either-or thinking and correlation
either-or thinking and correlation
either-or thinking and correlation causation errors and these biases are
causation errors and these biases are
causation errors and these biases are not the result of lack of knowledge they
not the result of lack of knowledge they
not the result of lack of knowledge they are the result of the lack of
are the result of the lack of
are the result of the lack of imagination Carl Sagan said we wish to
imagination Carl Sagan said we wish to
imagination Carl Sagan said we wish to pursue the truth no matter where it
pursue the truth no matter where it
pursue the truth no matter where it leads and to find the truth we must have
leads and to find the truth we must have
leads and to find the truth we must have imagination and skepticism both but in
imagination and skepticism both but in
imagination and skepticism both but in order to follow Carl Sagan’s advice we
order to follow Carl Sagan’s advice we
order to follow Carl Sagan’s advice we need a guide a guide to proper thinking
need a guide a guide to proper thinking
need a guide a guide to proper thinking a guide to balance the imagination and
a guide to balance the imagination and
a guide to balance the imagination and the skepticism to find that guide we go
the skepticism to find that guide we go
the skepticism to find that guide we go back 200 years to these two gentlemen
back 200 years to these two gentlemen
back 200 years to these two gentlemen Reverend Thomas Bayes and pierre-simon
Reverend Thomas Bayes and pierre-simon
Reverend Thomas Bayes and pierre-simon Laplace Reverend Bayes wrote down the
Laplace Reverend Bayes wrote down the
Laplace Reverend Bayes wrote down the guide to proper thinking also known as
guide to proper thinking also known as
guide to proper thinking also known as Bayes theorem Laplace independently
Bayes theorem Laplace independently
Bayes theorem Laplace independently derived it and applied it to many
derived it and applied it to many
derived it and applied it to many different fields in biology and physics
different fields in biology and physics
different fields in biology and physics and finance and sociology in the form of
and finance and sociology in the form of
and finance and sociology in the form of this guide is the following it says that
this guide is the following it says that
this guide is the following it says that our beliefs should scale with how well a
our beliefs should scale with how well a
our beliefs should scale with how well a particular X planation fits the data and
particular X planation fits the data and
particular X planation fits the data and how plausible that explanation is in the
how plausible that explanation is in the
how plausible that explanation is in the first place that part of it is pretty
first place that part of it is pretty
first place that part of it is pretty intuitive but our belief should also be
intuitive but our belief should also be
intuitive but our belief should also be scaled down by the number of plausible
scaled down by the number of plausible
scaled down by the number of plausible alternative explanations
alternative explanations
alternative explanations for the data and this is where
for the data and this is where
for the data and this is where imagination comes into play so how might
imagination comes into play so how might
imagination comes into play so how might this work imagine that you have a
this work imagine that you have a
this work imagine that you have a headache and you take a homeopathic
headache and you take a homeopathic
headache and you take a homeopathic remedy and three hours later your
remedy and three hours later your
remedy and three hours later your headache is gone how well does the
headache is gone how well does the
headache is gone how well does the explanation that the homeopathic remedy
explanation that the homeopathic remedy
explanation that the homeopathic remedy fit the data
fit the data
fit the data it’s got rid of the headache fits it
it’s got rid of the headache fits it
it’s got rid of the headache fits it pretty well but we shouldn’t stop there
pretty well but we shouldn’t stop there
pretty well but we shouldn’t stop there the guide to proper thinking says you
the guide to proper thinking says you
the guide to proper thinking says you should use your imagination come up with
should use your imagination come up with
should use your imagination come up with alternatives maybe you took something in
alternatives maybe you took something in
alternatives maybe you took something in addition to that remedy maybe you took
addition to that remedy maybe you took
addition to that remedy maybe you took an aspirin or maybe you took a nap
an aspirin or maybe you took a nap
an aspirin or maybe you took a nap maybe the being treated by an expert is
maybe the being treated by an expert is
maybe the being treated by an expert is soothing enough that your headache goes
soothing enough that your headache goes
soothing enough that your headache goes away because of that maybe headaches go
away because of that maybe headaches go
away because of that maybe headaches go away on their own sometimes the belief
away on their own sometimes the belief
away on their own sometimes the belief in the original explanation should be
in the original explanation should be
in the original explanation should be scaled down by these plausible
scaled down by these plausible
scaled down by these plausible alternative explanations I’ll take a
alternative explanations I’ll take a
alternative explanations I’ll take a totally different example tornado counts
totally different example tornado counts
totally different example tornado counts have increased over the past 60 years
have increased over the past 60 years
have increased over the past 60 years one explanation is climate change
one explanation is climate change
one explanation is climate change temperature increase may increase the
temperature increase may increase the
temperature increase may increase the severity of storms may increase the
severity of storms may increase the
severity of storms may increase the number of storms but the guide to proper
number of storms but the guide to proper
number of storms but the guide to proper thinking says you shouldn’t stop with
thinking says you shouldn’t stop with
thinking says you shouldn’t stop with with the first explanation you should
with the first explanation you should
with the first explanation you should use your imagination and come up with
use your imagination and come up with
use your imagination and come up with the alternatives
the alternatives
the alternatives perhaps we are counting more tornadoes
perhaps we are counting more tornadoes
perhaps we are counting more tornadoes because there are more people perhaps
because there are more people perhaps
because there are more people perhaps the technology is better and we count
the technology is better and we count
the technology is better and we count more tornadoes that way the guide to
more tornadoes that way the guide to
more tornadoes that way the guide to property also suggests that we don’t
property also suggests that we don’t
property also suggests that we don’t even stop there with the alternatives we
even stop there with the alternatives we
even stop there with the alternatives we need to use our imagination in the next
need to use our imagination in the next
need to use our imagination in the next step to see which of those alternatives
step to see which of those alternatives
step to see which of those alternatives might actually be true Matt Dillahunty
might actually be true Matt Dillahunty
might actually be true Matt Dillahunty says I want to believe as many true
says I want to believe as many true
says I want to believe as many true things and as few false things as
things and as few false things as
things and as few false things as possible and if we use this balance
possible and if we use this balance
possible and if we use this balance between imagination and skepticism we
between imagination and skepticism we
between imagination and skepticism we can then improve our beliefs and believe
can then improve our beliefs and believe
can then improve our beliefs and believe more true things this is the core of
more true things this is the core of
more true things this is the core of scientific thinking it’s the use of
scientific thinking it’s the use of
scientific thinking it’s the use of imagination and skepticism now it
imagination and skepticism now it
imagination and skepticism now it doesn’t have to always be really big
doesn’t have to always be really big
doesn’t have to always be really big topics I think everyone should make a
topics I think everyone should make a
topics I think everyone should make a habit of using their imagination and
habit of using their imagination and
habit of using their imagination and skepticism
skepticism
skepticism so I was working with a student or
so I was working with a student or
so I was working with a student or sitting at a table and we’re working on
sitting at a table and we’re working on
sitting at a table and we’re working on a project and I looked up at the at the
a project and I looked up at the at the
a project and I looked up at the at the wall there was a clock there and I
wall there was a clock there and I
wall there was a clock there and I noticed that the clock was broken it was
noticed that the clock was broken it was
noticed that the clock was broken it was saying the wrong time and the second
saying the wrong time and the second
saying the wrong time and the second hand was being erratic and I pointed
hand was being erratic and I pointed
hand was being erratic and I pointed this out to the student and she looked
this out to the student and she looked
this out to the student and she looked up at it and was like no I don’t think
up at it and was like no I don’t think
up at it and was like no I don’t think that the clock is completely broken and
that the clock is completely broken and
that the clock is completely broken and it’s not showing the right time but she
it’s not showing the right time but she
it’s not showing the right time but she said it’s taking out the right amount of
said it’s taking out the right amount of
said it’s taking out the right amount of time it’s just doing it erratically it
time it’s just doing it erratically it
time it’s just doing it erratically it would take one second and then wait for
would take one second and then wait for
would take one second and then wait for three and then jump three and wait for
three and then jump three and wait for
three and then jump three and wait for two seconds and jump two seconds but
two seconds and jump two seconds but
two seconds and jump two seconds but it’s clicking out the right amount of
it’s clicking out the right amount of
it’s clicking out the right amount of time and I looked at it again I was like
time and I looked at it again I was like
time and I looked at it again I was like no that clock is broken now we had two
no that clock is broken now we had two
no that clock is broken now we had two alternatives and in this case I was
alternatives and in this case I was
alternatives and in this case I was using someone else’s imagination to come
using someone else’s imagination to come
using someone else’s imagination to come up with what the alternatives and I
up with what the alternatives and I
up with what the alternatives and I wasn’t going to stop with my own
wasn’t going to stop with my own
wasn’t going to stop with my own explanation now we had to and I wasn’t
explanation now we had to and I wasn’t
explanation now we had to and I wasn’t going to stop simply by listing off
going to stop simply by listing off
going to stop simply by listing off alternatives we had to use our
alternatives we had to use our
alternatives we had to use our imagination to come up with a way to
imagination to come up with a way to
imagination to come up with a way to test it so to make it a little bit more
test it so to make it a little bit more
test it so to make it a little bit more interesting I pulled a dollar out of my
interesting I pulled a dollar out of my
interesting I pulled a dollar out of my wallet and put it down and I said I bet
wallet and put it down and I said I bet
wallet and put it down and I said I bet you it’s my explain explanation is right
you it’s my explain explanation is right
you it’s my explain explanation is right so we both sat there staring at a broken
so we both sat there staring at a broken
so we both sat there staring at a broken clock with our iPhones out timing it for
clock with our iPhones out timing it for
clock with our iPhones out timing it for a couple of minutes and I lost my dollar
a couple of minutes and I lost my dollar
a couple of minutes and I lost my dollar it was in fact ticking out the right
it was in fact ticking out the right
it was in fact ticking out the right amount of time but I was happy to lose
amount of time but I was happy to lose
amount of time but I was happy to lose that dollar because now I knew one more
that dollar because now I knew one more
that dollar because now I knew one more true thing and one fewer false thing so
true thing and one fewer false thing so
true thing and one fewer false thing so I have a call to action for everyone
I have a call to action for everyone
I have a call to action for everyone enjoy skepticism look for ways to apply
enjoy skepticism look for ways to apply
enjoy skepticism look for ways to apply it use your imagination and come up with
it use your imagination and come up with
it use your imagination and come up with alternatives don’t take the first
alternatives don’t take the first
alternatives don’t take the first explanation don’t even take the second
explanation don’t even take the second
explanation don’t even take the second explanation and and when your
explanation and and when your
explanation and and when your imagination might be limited use others
imagination might be limited use others
imagination might be limited use others find alternative viewpoints find
find alternative viewpoints find
find alternative viewpoints find alternative people and let them
alternative people and let them
alternative people and let them challenge your beliefs and I believe
challenge your beliefs and I believe
challenge your beliefs and I believe that by applying imagination and
that by applying imagination and
that by applying imagination and skepticism both you can be a better
skepticism both you can be a better
skepticism both you can be a better person and the world would be a better
person and the world would be a better
person and the world would be a better place thank you very much
”
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