[Applause] why do we tell stories stories are how
why do we tell stories stories are how
why do we tell stories stories are how humans deliver the most important
humans deliver the most important
humans deliver the most important messages in life
messages in life
messages in life ah and I’m here to make another such
ah and I’m here to make another such
ah and I’m here to make another such delivery to you humans have created a
delivery to you humans have created a
delivery to you humans have created a marvelous world of global connection a
marvelous world of global connection a
marvelous world of global connection a great giant network that we think of as
great giant network that we think of as
great giant network that we think of as the world system and often call
the world system and often call
the world system and often call globalization the difficulty however is
globalization the difficulty however is
globalization the difficulty however is that this world is perishable and when I
that this world is perishable and when I
that this world is perishable and when I say perishable I’m not talking about
say perishable I’m not talking about
say perishable I’m not talking about survival of the species but rather and
survival of the species but rather and
survival of the species but rather and here is the moment 150,000 years ago
here is the moment 150,000 years ago
here is the moment 150,000 years ago where humanity all almost went out
where humanity all almost went out
where humanity all almost went out because of climate change
because of climate change
because of climate change human beings were reduced
human beings were reduced
human beings were reduced anthropologists have estimated – what
anthropologists have estimated – what
anthropologists have estimated – what they call – about 600 of what they call
they call – about 600 of what they call
they call – about 600 of what they call breeding individuals so all of us are
breeding individuals so all of us are
breeding individuals so all of us are from those 600 people who gathered and
from those 600 people who gathered and
from those 600 people who gathered and clung to existence at a place called
clung to existence at a place called
clung to existence at a place called pinnacle point in South Africa right by
pinnacle point in South Africa right by
pinnacle point in South Africa right by the shore and humanity apparently
the shore and humanity apparently
the shore and humanity apparently adapted and survived the distress by
adapted and survived the distress by
adapted and survived the distress by learning how to eat shellfish so I’m not
learning how to eat shellfish so I’m not
learning how to eat shellfish so I’m not talking about this I’m talking and you
talking about this I’m talking and you
talking about this I’m talking and you can see how they migrated
can see how they migrated
can see how they migrated from be down there I’m talking about a
from be down there I’m talking about a
from be down there I’m talking about a different kind of crisis the crisis that
different kind of crisis the crisis that
different kind of crisis the crisis that we face with civilization itself and the
we face with civilization itself and the
we face with civilization itself and the world network that we glory in the
world network that we glory in the
world network that we glory in the Magnificent edifice of of a globalized
Magnificent edifice of of a globalized
Magnificent edifice of of a globalized world and what I have noticed is that
world and what I have noticed is that
world and what I have noticed is that there were four times in history meaning
there were four times in history meaning
there were four times in history meaning since people have learned how to write
since people have learned how to write
since people have learned how to write stories
stories
stories there have been four times where the
there have been four times where the
there have been four times where the world system such as it was at the time
world system such as it was at the time
world system such as it was at the time literally came apart and subsided and I
literally came apart and subsided and I
literally came apart and subsided and I wanted to know why and how that happened
wanted to know why and how that happened
wanted to know why and how that happened and the best way I could do that was to
and the best way I could do that was to
and the best way I could do that was to gather group of students and create a
gather group of students and create a
gather group of students and create a course which I did I’ve taught it three
course which I did I’ve taught it three
course which I did I’ve taught it three times and the overriding a puzzle or
times and the overriding a puzzle or
times and the overriding a puzzle or riddle is whether or not this could
riddle is whether or not this could
riddle is whether or not this could happen again and how it would happen are
happen again and how it would happen are
happen again and how it would happen are there elements that tie these global
there elements that tie these global
there elements that tie these global crises that we’ve experienced since the
crises that we’ve experienced since the
crises that we’ve experienced since the end of the Bronze Age other elements
end of the Bronze Age other elements
end of the Bronze Age other elements that tie it together and this is the
that tie it together and this is the
that tie it together and this is the world of of the Bronze Age are there
world of of the Bronze Age are there
world of of the Bronze Age are there elements that we can look to that are
elements that we can look to that are
elements that we can look to that are replicated in each of these crises and
replicated in each of these crises and
replicated in each of these crises and uh there’s also the fact which we know
uh there’s also the fact which we know
uh there’s also the fact which we know is a fact as we can look outside or look
is a fact as we can look outside or look
is a fact as we can look outside or look at each other and that fact is that
at each other and that fact is that
at each other and that fact is that these world systems eventually came back
these world systems eventually came back
these world systems eventually came back together they survived and revived so
together they survived and revived so
together they survived and revived so part of the issue is not simply how
part of the issue is not simply how
part of the issue is not simply how could a crisis happen but how would we
could a crisis happen but how would we
could a crisis happen but how would we how would we find resilience to put
how would we find resilience to put
how would we find resilience to put things back together this instance took
things back together this instance took
things back together this instance took a couple hundred years or more the
a couple hundred years or more the
a couple hundred years or more the so-called Dark Ages at the end of the
so-called Dark Ages at the end of the
so-called Dark Ages at the end of the Bronze Age and
Bronze Age and
Bronze Age and writing was lost in the Aegean area the
writing was lost in the Aegean area the
writing was lost in the Aegean area the migration of people’s was a big part of
migration of people’s was a big part of
migration of people’s was a big part of it and the second of these giant crises
it and the second of these giant crises
it and the second of these giant crises was the celebrated fall of the Roman
was the celebrated fall of the Roman
was the celebrated fall of the Roman Empire as it’s known and this also had a
Empire as it’s known and this also had a
Empire as it’s known and this also had a migratory element and perhaps the
migratory element and perhaps the
migratory element and perhaps the strongest force was climate change
strongest force was climate change
strongest force was climate change climate change bringing the great
climate change bringing the great
climate change bringing the great Justinian ik plague that overthrew the
Justinian ik plague that overthrew the
Justinian ik plague that overthrew the Mediterranean world the migrations of
Mediterranean world the migrations of
Mediterranean world the migrations of Germanic people and then eventually the
Germanic people and then eventually the
Germanic people and then eventually the surge of Islam then there was the great
surge of Islam then there was the great
surge of Islam then there was the great calamity of the 14th century the Black
calamity of the 14th century the Black
calamity of the 14th century the Black Death and in just a short few years 40
Death and in just a short few years 40
Death and in just a short few years 40 percent of humanity died and the great
percent of humanity died and the great
percent of humanity died and the great globalized Eurasian network here
globalized Eurasian network here
globalized Eurasian network here that was completely interlinked came
that was completely interlinked came
that was completely interlinked came apart and it stayed apart for another
apart and it stayed apart for another
apart and it stayed apart for another 300 years but of course it eventually
300 years but of course it eventually
300 years but of course it eventually came back together then we have the
came back together then we have the
came back together then we have the crises of the 20th century the two world
crises of the 20th century the two world
crises of the 20th century the two world wars and the depression and the system
wars and the depression and the system
wars and the depression and the system came apart and it came back together but
came apart and it came back together but
came apart and it came back together but if you were to look at the world say in
if you were to look at the world say in
if you were to look at the world say in 1940 after the Hitler Stalin pact you
1940 after the Hitler Stalin pact you
1940 after the Hitler Stalin pact you could feel much like Orwell did in 1984
could feel much like Orwell did in 1984
could feel much like Orwell did in 1984 that the world could be permanently
that the world could be permanently
that the world could be permanently divided into broken regions and that the
divided into broken regions and that the
divided into broken regions and that the idea of a system at all would have
idea of a system at all would have
idea of a system at all would have disappeared so the issue I thought was
disappeared so the issue I thought was
disappeared so the issue I thought was an issue of massive external force and
an issue of massive external force and
an issue of massive external force and the externality that that happened again
the externality that that happened again
the externality that that happened again and again was climate change bringing
and again was climate change bringing
and again was climate change bringing war pestilence and and famine and yet
war pestilence and and famine and yet
war pestilence and and famine and yet with my students are teaching it three
with my students are teaching it three
with my students are teaching it three times
times
times they helped usher me through a passage
they helped usher me through a passage
they helped usher me through a passage of transformative thinking which came as
of transformative thinking which came as
of transformative thinking which came as a surprise to me I discovered that the
a surprise to me I discovered that the
a surprise to me I discovered that the the climate change component was there
the climate change component was there
the climate change component was there and and could act as a trigger just as a
and and could act as a trigger just as a
and and could act as a trigger just as a war could unseat a system but the thing
war could unseat a system but the thing
war could unseat a system but the thing that happened that stood out in all of
that happened that stood out in all of
that happened that stood out in all of these historical cases was that the
these historical cases was that the
these historical cases was that the system stopped working when people
system stopped working when people
system stopped working when people stopped believing in the very idea of
stopped believing in the very idea of
stopped believing in the very idea of civilization and its leadership
civilization and its leadership
civilization and its leadership leadership and the elites lost Authority
leadership and the elites lost Authority
leadership and the elites lost Authority and ultimately were overthrown
and ultimately were overthrown
and ultimately were overthrown so this vision that I had gone into the
so this vision that I had gone into the
so this vision that I had gone into the seminar expecting to pursue in in
seminar expecting to pursue in in
seminar expecting to pursue in in tremendous detail became less important
tremendous detail became less important
tremendous detail became less important it was a trigger for sure but it was
it was a trigger for sure but it was
it was a trigger for sure but it was this underlying passage and this is what
this underlying passage and this is what
this underlying passage and this is what I’ve come up with
I’ve come up with
I’ve come up with thanks to my students as we looked at
thanks to my students as we looked at
thanks to my students as we looked at these cases this is what happens with
these cases this is what happens with
these cases this is what happens with elite based orders now when I say elite
elite based orders now when I say elite
elite based orders now when I say elite the elite aren’t simply the 1% the
the elite aren’t simply the 1% the
the elite aren’t simply the 1% the notorious 1% they are the intellectuals
notorious 1% they are the intellectuals
notorious 1% they are the intellectuals the idea people they’re also the what I
the idea people they’re also the what I
the idea people they’re also the what I call the courtier class which we see
call the courtier class which we see
call the courtier class which we see everywhere in Washington the people who
everywhere in Washington the people who
everywhere in Washington the people who run the institutions of governance now
run the institutions of governance now
run the institutions of governance now what happens with elites every single
what happens with elites every single
what happens with elites every single time the more successful the system the
time the more successful the system the
time the more successful the system the stronger the elite order becomes elites
stronger the elite order becomes elites
stronger the elite order becomes elites become stratified politics are frozen
become stratified politics are frozen
become stratified politics are frozen see that in the Roman Empire you can see
see that in the Roman Empire you can see
see that in the Roman Empire you can see it in the High Middle Ages with
it in the High Middle Ages with
it in the High Middle Ages with feudalism and the way in which the
feudalism and the way in which the
feudalism and the way in which the church had a lock on society as a whole
church had a lock on society as a whole
church had a lock on society as a whole the elites take people and their
the elites take people and their
the elites take people and their allegiance for granted they did this in
allegiance for granted they did this in
allegiance for granted they did this in World War one sending a millions of
World War one sending a millions of
World War one sending a millions of young men that their deaths and then
young men that their deaths and then
young men that their deaths and then again in
again in
again in world war two real social mobility
world war two real social mobility
world war two real social mobility declines and it declines because elites
declines and it declines because elites
declines and it declines because elites are working relentlessly working to
are working relentlessly working to
are working relentlessly working to maximize their wealth and status but you
maximize their wealth and status but you
maximize their wealth and status but you don’t simply get a growing inequality of
don’t simply get a growing inequality of
don’t simply get a growing inequality of income and wealth you also get a a
income and wealth you also get a a
income and wealth you also get a a decline in social mobility it’s a story
decline in social mobility it’s a story
decline in social mobility it’s a story in each of these passages elites ignore
in each of these passages elites ignore
in each of these passages elites ignore threats to the people’s way of life they
threats to the people’s way of life they
threats to the people’s way of life they become insensitive they don’t listen
become insensitive they don’t listen
become insensitive they don’t listen this of course um was something that
this of course um was something that
this of course um was something that sneaked up in this recent election but
sneaked up in this recent election but
sneaked up in this recent election but it’s happened in all of these cases
it’s happened in all of these cases
it’s happened in all of these cases people abandoned Rome they went out in
people abandoned Rome they went out in
people abandoned Rome they went out in the countryside to escape the the
the countryside to escape the the
the countryside to escape the the dominance of slavery and the poverty
dominance of slavery and the poverty
dominance of slavery and the poverty that they were burdened with elite
that they were burdened with elite
that they were burdened with elite Authority becomes aggressively
Authority becomes aggressively
Authority becomes aggressively militarized toward the end in Rome and
militarized toward the end in Rome and
militarized toward the end in Rome and also the whole set up of feudal society
also the whole set up of feudal society
also the whole set up of feudal society at the height of the Middle Ages was
at the height of the Middle Ages was
at the height of the Middle Ages was tremendously militarized and the
tremendously militarized and the
tremendously militarized and the militarization of course characterized
militarization of course characterized
militarization of course characterized the 20th century and people in the
the 20th century and people in the
the 20th century and people in the elites feel that this is civilization
elites feel that this is civilization
elites feel that this is civilization and this is what needs to be protected
and this is what needs to be protected
and this is what needs to be protected and this is what needs to be nurtured
and this is what needs to be nurtured
and this is what needs to be nurtured and those that’s not a straight
and those that’s not a straight
and those that’s not a straight ideological party distinction up people
ideological party distinction up people
ideological party distinction up people on the right will talk about the free
on the right will talk about the free
on the right will talk about the free market people on the Left will talk
market people on the Left will talk
market people on the Left will talk about a government that is able to
about a government that is able to
about a government that is able to regulate and so they’re both talking
regulate and so they’re both talking
regulate and so they’re both talking about the focus on civilization and not
about the focus on civilization and not
about the focus on civilization and not on people the one-tenth of the 1/10 of
on people the one-tenth of the 1/10 of
on people the one-tenth of the 1/10 of the 1% also known as Homo Davos Davos
the 1% also known as Homo Davos Davos
the 1% also known as Homo Davos Davos man and here’s the other side and
man and here’s the other side and
man and here’s the other side and you have such a giant uh inequality of
you have such a giant uh inequality of
you have such a giant uh inequality of wealth and income the world may be
wealth and income the world may be
wealth and income the world may be getting richer but where is the wealth
getting richer but where is the wealth
getting richer but where is the wealth going to whom is it going the
going to whom is it going the
going to whom is it going the militarization a stands out in its
militarization a stands out in its
militarization a stands out in its ability to resonate in our minds with
ability to resonate in our minds with
ability to resonate in our minds with images of medieval Knights here so so do
images of medieval Knights here so so do
images of medieval Knights here so so do Americans in their body armor in here so
Americans in their body armor in here so
Americans in their body armor in here so you have a vision but a vision that is
you have a vision but a vision that is
you have a vision but a vision that is yet unfulfilled I mean our system has
yet unfulfilled I mean our system has
yet unfulfilled I mean our system has not yet come apart and I’m not sure that
not yet come apart and I’m not sure that
not yet come apart and I’m not sure that we should think that it will come apart
we should think that it will come apart
we should think that it will come apart anytime soon because the crisis comes
anytime soon because the crisis comes
anytime soon because the crisis comes often very slowly the situation may
often very slowly the situation may
often very slowly the situation may build for centuries violent popular
build for centuries violent popular
build for centuries violent popular flare-ups rebellions insurgencies come
flare-ups rebellions insurgencies come
flare-ups rebellions insurgencies come and go and are viciously put down it’s
and go and are viciously put down it’s
and go and are viciously put down it’s only when that externality arrives that
only when that externality arrives that
only when that externality arrives that outside force that it tips things over
outside force that it tips things over
outside force that it tips things over so you see the climate change isn’t the
so you see the climate change isn’t the
so you see the climate change isn’t the the thing that makes it happen
the thing that makes it happen
the thing that makes it happen it is the spark plug the fuse the
it is the spark plug the fuse the
it is the spark plug the fuse the trigger and what happens in these crises
trigger and what happens in these crises
trigger and what happens in these crises is that elite legitimacy and for a while
is that elite legitimacy and for a while
is that elite legitimacy and for a while authority is overthrown and it’s remade
authority is overthrown and it’s remade
authority is overthrown and it’s remade and we can see this throughout the
and we can see this throughout the
and we can see this throughout the periods of coming apart the elites are
periods of coming apart the elites are
periods of coming apart the elites are overthrown
overthrown
overthrown and the punchline not the final message
and the punchline not the final message
and the punchline not the final message but the punchline in every single a
but the punchline in every single a
but the punchline in every single a system collapse or coming apart or
system collapse or coming apart or
system collapse or coming apart or subsidence there is space that’s opened
subsidence there is space that’s opened
subsidence there is space that’s opened up there is more room for people to rise
up there is more room for people to rise
up there is more room for people to rise there’s more freedom and in effect the
there’s more freedom and in effect the
there’s more freedom and in effect the black death for example set up the the
black death for example set up the the
black death for example set up the the the rise of Europe the new technologies
the rise of Europe the new technologies
the rise of Europe the new technologies were were encouraged they needed them
were were encouraged they needed them
were were encouraged they needed them that’s the innovation and new things the
that’s the innovation and new things the
that’s the innovation and new things the physical destruction itself creates a
physical destruction itself creates a
physical destruction itself creates a high demand for investment and growth so
high demand for investment and growth so
high demand for investment and growth so if you look at writers like comes
if you look at writers like comes
if you look at writers like comes Piketty you’ll see how the world war and
Piketty you’ll see how the world war and
Piketty you’ll see how the world war and then the depression and finally World
then the depression and finally World
then the depression and finally World War two could be interpreted as good
War two could be interpreted as good
War two could be interpreted as good things because so much was destroyed
things because so much was destroyed
things because so much was destroyed there was a pent-up demand for
there was a pent-up demand for
there was a pent-up demand for rebuilding which was the economic dynamo
rebuilding which was the economic dynamo
rebuilding which was the economic dynamo that fueled the rise of Western Europe
that fueled the rise of Western Europe
that fueled the rise of Western Europe and Japan after World War two and in
and Japan after World War two and in
and Japan after World War two and in addition there was more equality because
addition there was more equality because
addition there was more equality because so much wealth was destroyed destroyed
so much wealth was destroyed destroyed
so much wealth was destroyed destroyed in the Depression but also destroyed in
in the Depression but also destroyed in
in the Depression but also destroyed in World War one and especially World War
World War one and especially World War
World War one and especially World War two by the coming of parts in overthrow
two by the coming of parts in overthrow
two by the coming of parts in overthrow of elites every nation in Europe with
of elites every nation in Europe with
of elites every nation in Europe with the exception of Britain either suffered
the exception of Britain either suffered
the exception of Britain either suffered a revolution or was torn apart for the
a revolution or was torn apart for the
a revolution or was torn apart for the next 20 years like France what happens
next 20 years like France what happens
next 20 years like France what happens and this is why the coming crisis is
and this is why the coming crisis is
and this is why the coming crisis is potentially a good thing even if it
potentially a good thing even if it
potentially a good thing even if it leads to our tearing the hair out of our
leads to our tearing the hair out of our
leads to our tearing the hair out of our heads is that civilization is reimagined
heads is that civilization is reimagined
heads is that civilization is reimagined what happens over time while the elites
what happens over time while the elites
what happens over time while the elites are stratifying and corralling all this
are stratifying and corralling all this
are stratifying and corralling all this wealth unto themselves they are also
wealth unto themselves they are also
wealth unto themselves they are also stratifying and freezing the very
stratifying and freezing the very
stratifying and freezing the very civilization itself and and this is
civilization itself and and this is
civilization itself and and this is something that would lead to many other
something that would lead to many other
something that would lead to many other stories but it is something you
stories but it is something you
stories but it is something you see in late antiquity with Rome you see
see in late antiquity with Rome you see
see in late antiquity with Rome you see it very powerfully in the crisis of the
it very powerfully in the crisis of the
it very powerfully in the crisis of the high middle ages
high middle ages
high middle ages you see it in the twentieth century and
you see it in the twentieth century and
you see it in the twentieth century and then when is it when is it to come next
then when is it when is it to come next
then when is it when is it to come next I put these things together as as
I put these things together as as
I put these things together as as indicators up up from my students and
indicators up up from my students and
indicators up up from my students and and our conversations and the the true
and our conversations and the the true
and our conversations and the the true bottom line that I can give you and
bottom line that I can give you and
bottom line that I can give you and deliver it now the bottom line message
deliver it now the bottom line message
deliver it now the bottom line message is and and try to keep this in mind and
is and and try to keep this in mind and
is and and try to keep this in mind and exploring if you’re able to face that
exploring if you’re able to face that
exploring if you’re able to face that challenge you are the elites and the
challenge you are the elites and the
challenge you are the elites and the revolution will come for you thank you
revolution will come for you thank you
revolution will come for you thank you [Applause]
”
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