it seems basic right we all know fact is fact vaccines don’t cause autism
fact is fact vaccines don’t cause autism
fact is fact vaccines don’t cause autism fact human-caused climate change is
fact human-caused climate change is
fact human-caused climate change is wreaking havoc on the earth fact the
wreaking havoc on the earth fact the
wreaking havoc on the earth fact the earth is a sphere that orbits the Sun
earth is a sphere that orbits the Sun
earth is a sphere that orbits the Sun facts are things were sure about but
facts are things were sure about but
facts are things were sure about but what do you think what do you do when
what do you think what do you do when
what do you think what do you do when you seem to have a difference in facts
you seem to have a difference in facts
you seem to have a difference in facts like in the above video perhaps you
like in the above video perhaps you
like in the above video perhaps you might think that there’s a difference in
might think that there’s a difference in
might think that there’s a difference in knowledge a difference in data you and
knowledge a difference in data you and
knowledge a difference in data you and the other person might be educated
the other person might be educated
the other person might be educated differently but I actually don’t think
differently but I actually don’t think
differently but I actually don’t think that’s the case at all at least in
that’s the case at all at least in
that’s the case at all at least in today’s climate I think it’s not a
today’s climate I think it’s not a
today’s climate I think it’s not a difference in facts but a difference in
difference in facts but a difference in
difference in facts but a difference in what a fact is what I think’s the case
what a fact is what I think’s the case
what a fact is what I think’s the case is that we’re not on the same page as to
is that we’re not on the same page as to
is that we’re not on the same page as to what differentiates truths and mistruths
what differentiates truths and mistruths
what differentiates truths and mistruths and this leads to a bigger and even more
and this leads to a bigger and even more
and this leads to a bigger and even more fundamental problem how do we as
fundamental problem how do we as
fundamental problem how do we as individuals as a society know how to act
individuals as a society know how to act
individuals as a society know how to act when we can’t can’t even agree on a
when we can’t can’t even agree on a
when we can’t can’t even agree on a basis of facts or even on a basis of
basis of facts or even on a basis of
basis of facts or even on a basis of what a fact should be so let’s start
what a fact should be so let’s start
what a fact should be so let’s start with a pretty basic question what is a
with a pretty basic question what is a
with a pretty basic question what is a fact well a fact can only be defined one
fact well a fact can only be defined one
fact well a fact can only be defined one way and that’s through the scientific
way and that’s through the scientific
way and that’s through the scientific method so the scientific method is one
method so the scientific method is one
method so the scientific method is one of the most powerful and important ideas
of the most powerful and important ideas
of the most powerful and important ideas ever conceived by man it allows us to
ever conceived by man it allows us to
ever conceived by man it allows us to understand nature to solve problems or
understand nature to solve problems or
understand nature to solve problems or even to invent but it has very specific
even to invent but it has very specific
even to invent but it has very specific steps it starts with an observation we
steps it starts with an observation we
steps it starts with an observation we see something about the world it
see something about the world it
see something about the world it intrigues us we want to know more we ask
intrigues us we want to know more we ask
intrigues us we want to know more we ask the important questions like why or how
the important questions like why or how
the important questions like why or how then we develop a hypothesis we take our
then we develop a hypothesis we take our
then we develop a hypothesis we take our best guess we apply our existing
best guess we apply our existing
best guess we apply our existing understanding of the world and formulate
understanding of the world and formulate
understanding of the world and formulate what we think the answer to our
what we think the answer to our
what we think the answer to our interesting question is then we
interesting question is then we
interesting question is then we formulate a testable prediction if my
formulate a testable prediction if my
formulate a testable prediction if my hypothesis is correct then this other
hypothesis is correct then this other
hypothesis is correct then this other observation should be able to be made we
observation should be able to be made we
observation should be able to be made we obviously know in one situation that our
obviously know in one situation that our
obviously know in one situation that our hypothesis fits that’s why it’s our
hypothesis fits that’s why it’s our
hypothesis fits that’s why it’s our hypothesis in the first place
hypothesis in the first place
hypothesis in the first place but we seek to change the conditions
but we seek to change the conditions
but we seek to change the conditions question our assumptions so that we can
question our assumptions so that we can
question our assumptions so that we can determine what the truth is then we
determine what the truth is then we
determine what the truth is then we conduct the experiment which either
conduct the experiment which either
conduct the experiment which either accepts or rejects our hypothesis then
accepts or rejects our hypothesis then
accepts or rejects our hypothesis then most importantly we iterate this is
most importantly we iterate this is
most importantly we iterate this is perhaps the most and crucial most
perhaps the most and crucial most
perhaps the most and crucial most crucial part by iterating we’re able to
crucial part by iterating we’re able to
crucial part by iterating we’re able to advance our understanding we take it
advance our understanding we take it
advance our understanding we take it further we ask deeper questions we have
further we ask deeper questions we have
further we ask deeper questions we have different tests now most importantly we
different tests now most importantly we
different tests now most importantly we seek to push things our hypothesis our
seek to push things our hypothesis our
seek to push things our hypothesis our assumptions our understandings until we
assumptions our understandings until we
assumptions our understandings until we break them only then do we discover only
break them only then do we discover only
break them only then do we discover only then do we learn now none of this is new
then do we learn now none of this is new
then do we learn now none of this is new to you every middle schooler in the
to you every middle schooler in the
to you every middle schooler in the country is taught the above but even if
country is taught the above but even if
country is taught the above but even if you were taught the above your teachers
you were taught the above your teachers
you were taught the above your teachers probably didn’t take the time to teach
probably didn’t take the time to teach
probably didn’t take the time to teach you the long-range consequences the
you the long-range consequences the
you the long-range consequences the long-term effects of this way of
long-term effects of this way of
long-term effects of this way of thinking at least that’s what current
thinking at least that’s what current
thinking at least that’s what current events seem to show and there are two in
events seem to show and there are two in
events seem to show and there are two in my opinion misconceptions about the
my opinion misconceptions about the
my opinion misconceptions about the scientific methods that I want to talk
scientific methods that I want to talk
scientific methods that I want to talk about today and the first one is
about today and the first one is
about today and the first one is certainty the first thing it’s important
certainty the first thing it’s important
certainty the first thing it’s important to understand about the scientific
to understand about the scientific
to understand about the scientific method is that nothing is certain we
method is that nothing is certain we
method is that nothing is certain we keep on iterating on hypotheses coming
keep on iterating on hypotheses coming
keep on iterating on hypotheses coming up with new tests until they break the
up with new tests until they break the
up with new tests until they break the only time we can be certain is when the
only time we can be certain is when the
only time we can be certain is when the hypothesis is disproven until then the
hypothesis is disproven until then the
hypothesis is disproven until then the hypothesis is not proven but simply not
hypothesis is not proven but simply not
hypothesis is not proven but simply not yet disproven and a theory is just a
yet disproven and a theory is just a
yet disproven and a theory is just a system of ideas that we think explains
system of ideas that we think explains
system of ideas that we think explains something it’s kind of our best guess
something it’s kind of our best guess
something it’s kind of our best guess it’s hypotheses that we think is
it’s hypotheses that we think is
it’s hypotheses that we think is probably right that we have confidence
probably right that we have confidence
probably right that we have confidence in scientists can say they believe in
in scientists can say they believe in
in scientists can say they believe in something with more or less certainty
something with more or less certainty
something with more or less certainty they can say they’re more more or less
they can say they’re more more or less
they can say they’re more more or less confident but if you ask a scientist if
confident but if you ask a scientist if
confident but if you ask a scientist if they’re sure if you ask your scientist
they’re sure if you ask your scientist
they’re sure if you ask your scientist if they’re certain they’ll say no
if they’re certain they’ll say no
if they’re certain they’ll say no because if they’re following the
because if they’re following the
because if they’re following the scientific method they never will be
fact the Earth orbits the Sun I think
fact the Earth orbits the Sun I think this is something that hopefully we can
this is something that hopefully we can
this is something that hopefully we can all agree on so this is called the
all agree on so this is called the
all agree on so this is called the heliocentric theory
heliocentric theory
heliocentric theory Noma emphasis on the world theory saying
Noma emphasis on the world theory saying
Noma emphasis on the world theory saying that the correct model of the solar
that the correct model of the solar
that the correct model of the solar system is that all the planets orbit the
system is that all the planets orbit the
system is that all the planets orbit the Sun but we didn’t always used to think
Sun but we didn’t always used to think
Sun but we didn’t always used to think this way we used to believe in
this way we used to believe in
this way we used to believe in geocentrism which is that everything
geocentrism which is that everything
geocentrism which is that everything orbits the earth now we made an
orbits the earth now we made an
orbits the earth now we made an observation we looked up at the sky and
observation we looked up at the sky and
observation we looked up at the sky and that was the thing that made the most
that was the thing that made the most
that was the thing that made the most sense right why should we assume that
sense right why should we assume that
sense right why should we assume that we’re floating around some ball in the
we’re floating around some ball in the
we’re floating around some ball in the sky we aren’t we aren’t moving right now
sky we aren’t we aren’t moving right now
sky we aren’t we aren’t moving right now we make correct collected data and
we make correct collected data and
we make correct collected data and guided more evidence to this theory and
guided more evidence to this theory and
guided more evidence to this theory and in fact when we had kind of conflicting
in fact when we had kind of conflicting
in fact when we had kind of conflicting evidence we just modified the geocentric
evidence we just modified the geocentric
evidence we just modified the geocentric theory to make it still work
theory to make it still work
theory to make it still work now this all changed when Nicholas
now this all changed when Nicholas
now this all changed when Nicholas Copernicus published on the revolutions
Copernicus published on the revolutions
Copernicus published on the revolutions of the celestial spheres where he
of the celestial spheres where he
of the celestial spheres where he presented an alternate theory the theory
presented an alternate theory the theory
presented an alternate theory the theory of gravitation and of heliocentrism it
of gravitation and of heliocentrism it
of gravitation and of heliocentrism it was a mathematical model really not even
was a mathematical model really not even
was a mathematical model really not even observations that was more simple and
observations that was more simple and
observations that was more simple and elegant and altogether more sensical but
elegant and altogether more sensical but
elegant and altogether more sensical but we didn’t believe heliocentrism until
we didn’t believe heliocentrism until
we didn’t believe heliocentrism until Galileo observed the moons of Jupiter
Galileo observed the moons of Jupiter
Galileo observed the moons of Jupiter more specifically he observe this the
more specifically he observe this the
more specifically he observe this the moons orbiting Jupiter itself that was
moons orbiting Jupiter itself that was
moons orbiting Jupiter itself that was absolutely undeniable proof that there
absolutely undeniable proof that there
absolutely undeniable proof that there were bodies orbiting things that weren’t
were bodies orbiting things that weren’t
were bodies orbiting things that weren’t earth we kept believing and geocentrism
earth we kept believing and geocentrism
earth we kept believing and geocentrism until we broke it beyond deniability now
until we broke it beyond deniability now
until we broke it beyond deniability now every observation every space mission
every observation every space mission
every observation every space mission every piece of data ever collected by
every piece of data ever collected by
every piece of data ever collected by man supports this model of the solar
man supports this model of the solar
man supports this model of the solar system we’re extremely unlikely to find
system we’re extremely unlikely to find
system we’re extremely unlikely to find evidence that disproves the fact that
evidence that disproves the fact that
evidence that disproves the fact that the Earth orbits the Sun that the Earth
the Earth orbits the Sun that the Earth
the Earth orbits the Sun that the Earth orbits the Sun is a fact but it is also
orbits the Sun is a fact but it is also
orbits the Sun is a fact but it is also a hypothesis we accept it as a fact in
a hypothesis we accept it as a fact in
a hypothesis we accept it as a fact in base our calculations and lives on it
base our calculations and lives on it
base our calculations and lives on it but there’s always a chance however
but there’s always a chance however
but there’s always a chance however small that we are wrong that we are not
small that we are wrong that we are not
small that we are wrong that we are not orbiting the Sun and ultimately the
orbiting the Sun and ultimately the
orbiting the Sun and ultimately the foundation of the scientific method is
foundation of the scientific method is
foundation of the scientific method is holding both to be true at once
holding both to be true at once
holding both to be true at once simultaneously basing our calculations
simultaneously basing our calculations
simultaneously basing our calculations have not on it but being completely open
have not on it but being completely open
have not on it but being completely open to being wrong now that’s a very current
to being wrong now that’s a very current
to being wrong now that’s a very current intuitive counterintuitive mental state
intuitive counterintuitive mental state
intuitive counterintuitive mental state it’s almost double think holding two
it’s almost double think holding two
it’s almost double think holding two opposite things to be true at once
opposite things to be true at once
opposite things to be true at once except this is absolutely important
except this is absolutely important
except this is absolutely important absolutely vital if we can’t hold
absolutely vital if we can’t hold
absolutely vital if we can’t hold electromagnetic theory to be true well
electromagnetic theory to be true well
electromagnetic theory to be true well open to being wrong we couldn’t have
open to being wrong we couldn’t have
open to being wrong we couldn’t have invented sensors and computers and
invented sensors and computers and
invented sensors and computers and transistors and electron colliders that
transistors and electron colliders that
transistors and electron colliders that would eventually disprove that theory it
would eventually disprove that theory it
would eventually disprove that theory it has to be both true and false at once
has to be both true and false at once
has to be both true and false at once second thing about the scientific method
second thing about the scientific method
second thing about the scientific method non destroy both science in general says
non destroy both science in general says
non destroy both science in general says we can prove things not in disprove
we can prove things not in disprove
we can prove things not in disprove things let’s take two examples we can
things let’s take two examples we can
things let’s take two examples we can all agree that Santa Claus or the Easter
all agree that Santa Claus or the Easter
all agree that Santa Claus or the Easter Bunny are falsehoods they do not exist
Bunny are falsehoods they do not exist
Bunny are falsehoods they do not exist any rational adult would agree but
any rational adult would agree but
any rational adult would agree but question can you disprove the existence
question can you disprove the existence
question can you disprove the existence of either of these two stories sure you
of either of these two stories sure you
of either of these two stories sure you can prove to me that they exist you can
can prove to me that they exist you can
can prove to me that they exist you can find Santa Claus caption study his
find Santa Claus caption study his
find Santa Claus caption study his reindeer find his lair in the North Pole
reindeer find his lair in the North Pole
reindeer find his lair in the North Pole you can prove all of these things but
you can prove all of these things but
you can prove all of these things but can you prove to me that he is merely
can you prove to me that he is merely
can you prove to me that he is merely the figment of a child’s imagination no
the figment of a child’s imagination no
the figment of a child’s imagination no you cannot it’s non disprovable you
you cannot it’s non disprovable you
you cannot it’s non disprovable you simply don’t find any evidence that
simply don’t find any evidence that
simply don’t find any evidence that supports his existence so instead we
supports his existence so instead we
supports his existence so instead we have to look at all available evidence
have to look at all available evidence
have to look at all available evidence and use Occam’s razor what’s the most
and use Occam’s razor what’s the most
and use Occam’s razor what’s the most likely and simple and logical
likely and simple and logical
likely and simple and logical explanation that fits the observations
explanation that fits the observations
explanation that fits the observations that we’re making what’s more likely
that we’re making what’s more likely
that we’re making what’s more likely that a man living in the ice caps has
that a man living in the ice caps has
that a man living in the ice caps has reindeer that defy the laws of physics
reindeer that defy the laws of physics
reindeer that defy the laws of physics and carries enough presents on his small
and carries enough presents on his small
and carries enough presents on his small sleigh that would normally occupy the
sleigh that would normally occupy the
sleigh that would normally occupy the volume of a large mountain or that into
volume of a large mountain or that into
volume of a large mountain or that into the history of societal tradition
the history of societal tradition
the history of societal tradition parents creat the idea and the story of
parents creat the idea and the story of
parents creat the idea and the story of such a man and put presents under the
such a man and put presents under the
such a man and put presents under the tree for their child what’s more
tree for their child what’s more
tree for their child what’s more believable and what’s more likely that a
believable and what’s more likely that a
believable and what’s more likely that a human-sized and sentient rabbit exists
human-sized and sentient rabbit exists
human-sized and sentient rabbit exists or that this is again a story these
or that this is again a story these
or that this is again a story these things are by the scientific method
things are by the scientific method
things are by the scientific method fundamentally non disprovable now this
fundamentally non disprovable now this
fundamentally non disprovable now this brings me back to autism fact vaccines
brings me back to autism fact vaccines
brings me back to autism fact vaccines don’t cause autism but when we ask the
don’t cause autism but when we ask the
don’t cause autism but when we ask the scientists about this what do they say
scientists about this what do they say
scientists about this what do they say they say no link has been shown they
they say no link has been shown they
they say no link has been shown they don’t say vaccines don’t cause autism
don’t say vaccines don’t cause autism
don’t say vaccines don’t cause autism they say no link has been shown because
they say no link has been shown because
they say no link has been shown because that’s how the scientific method works
that’s how the scientific method works
that’s how the scientific method works now you can prove vaccines cause autism
now you can prove vaccines cause autism
now you can prove vaccines cause autism right you can have two groups of babies
right you can have two groups of babies
right you can have two groups of babies with large sample sizes you have a test
with large sample sizes you have a test
with large sample sizes you have a test group and a control group with a control
group and a control group with a control
group and a control group with a control group you don’t give them vaccines and
group you don’t give them vaccines and
group you don’t give them vaccines and with the test group you do give them
with the test group you do give them
with the test group you do give them back scenes and then you follow these
back scenes and then you follow these
back scenes and then you follow these babies along their lives
babies along their lives
babies along their lives you see if one group is more or less
you see if one group is more or less
you see if one group is more or less likely to develop signs of autism if you
likely to develop signs of autism if you
likely to develop signs of autism if you see a disproportionate development of
see a disproportionate development of
see a disproportionate development of autism in the test group you have proven
autism in the test group you have proven
autism in the test group you have proven vaccines cause autism
vaccines cause autism
vaccines cause autism but how do you prove vaccines don’t
but how do you prove vaccines don’t
but how do you prove vaccines don’t cause autism you can’t you simply find
cause autism you can’t you simply find
cause autism you can’t you simply find no difference in the expression of
no difference in the expression of
no difference in the expression of autism in the test and control group you
autism in the test and control group you
autism in the test and control group you simply show that there is no link
simply show that there is no link
simply show that there is no link proving that vaccines don’t cause autism
proving that vaccines don’t cause autism
proving that vaccines don’t cause autism is just as impossible as proving that
is just as impossible as proving that
is just as impossible as proving that Santa Claus doesn’t exist both
Santa Claus doesn’t exist both
Santa Claus doesn’t exist both fundamentally impossible let’s change
fundamentally impossible let’s change
fundamentally impossible let’s change topics the science is not settled on
topics the science is not settled on
topics the science is not settled on this me and I tell somebody said just
this me and I tell somebody said just
this me and I tell somebody said just because you have a group of scientists
because you have a group of scientists
because you have a group of scientists and stood up and said here is the fact
and stood up and said here is the fact
and stood up and said here is the fact we don’t know what’s causing climate
we don’t know what’s causing climate
we don’t know what’s causing climate change on this planet and the idea of
change on this planet and the idea of
change on this planet and the idea of spending trillions and trillions of
spending trillions and trillions of
spending trillions and trillions of dollars to try and reduce co2 emissions
dollars to try and reduce co2 emissions
dollars to try and reduce co2 emissions is not the right course for us four
is not the right course for us four
is not the right course for us four percent of US Senate Republicans
percent of US Senate Republicans
percent of US Senate Republicans publicly questioned the science of
publicly questioned the science of
publicly questioned the science of global warm AIDS the dinosaurs was
global warm AIDS the dinosaurs was
global warm AIDS the dinosaurs was dramatically warmer than this is right
dramatically warmer than this is right
dramatically warmer than this is right now and it didn’t cook the planet and in
now and it didn’t cook the planet and in
now and it didn’t cook the planet and in fact life is fine you convinced that
fact life is fine you convinced that
fact life is fine you convinced that climate change is man-made
climate change is man-made
climate change is man-made well I look I don’t know that that is a
well I look I don’t know that that is a
well I look I don’t know that that is a resolved issue in science today so what
resolved issue in science today so what
resolved issue in science today so what I’m hearing from this video is that we
I’m hearing from this video is that we
I’m hearing from this video is that we need to be certain about something
need to be certain about something
need to be certain about something before we act but don’t you see how this
before we act but don’t you see how this
before we act but don’t you see how this conflicts we’ve just agreed that you can
conflicts we’ve just agreed that you can
conflicts we’ve just agreed that you can never be sure about anything if the bar
never be sure about anything if the bar
never be sure about anything if the bar for action is this impossible standard
for action is this impossible standard
for action is this impossible standard we never take action we drowned before
we never take action we drowned before
we never take action we drowned before we put on a life jacket so what’s the
we put on a life jacket so what’s the
we put on a life jacket so what’s the right way to decide whether or not to
right way to decide whether or not to
right way to decide whether or not to act so it’s actually an expected value
act so it’s actually an expected value
act so it’s actually an expected value equation shown here it’s the chance of
equation shown here it’s the chance of
equation shown here it’s the chance of something something happening multiplied
something something happening multiplied
something something happening multiplied by the goodness of that happening minus
by the goodness of that happening minus
by the goodness of that happening minus the chance of some other event happening
the chance of some other event happening
the chance of some other event happening multiplied by the badness of that event
multiplied by the badness of that event
multiplied by the badness of that event happening apply to autism X’s vaccines
happening apply to autism X’s vaccines
happening apply to autism X’s vaccines functioning properly why these vaccines
functioning properly why these vaccines
functioning properly why these vaccines functioning improperly and causing
functioning improperly and causing
functioning improperly and causing autism so putting some numbers to this
let’s say there’s a 1% chance that
let’s say there’s a 1% chance that vaccines cause autism it’s not but let’s
vaccines cause autism it’s not but let’s
vaccines cause autism it’s not but let’s just say there is so you have a 99%
just say there is so you have a 99%
just say there is so you have a 99% chance of good things happening and in
chance of good things happening and in
chance of good things happening and in this case
this case
this case on a scale of 1 100 let’s say you’re
on a scale of 1 100 let’s say you’re
on a scale of 1 100 let’s say you’re saving millions of lives worldwide per
saving millions of lives worldwide per
saving millions of lives worldwide per year let’s say that’s a 80 on a scale of
year let’s say that’s a 80 on a scale of
year let’s say that’s a 80 on a scale of 1 100 now on the 1 percent chance that
1 100 now on the 1 percent chance that
1 100 now on the 1 percent chance that you your kid does get autism you know
you your kid does get autism you know
you your kid does get autism you know that’s really bad because it’s your kid
that’s really bad because it’s your kid
that’s really bad because it’s your kid even worse the millions of other kids
even worse the millions of other kids
even worse the millions of other kids dying so let’s put that at 100 so even
dying so let’s put that at 100 so even
dying so let’s put that at 100 so even in that case it’s a 78 point 2 right and
in that case it’s a 78 point 2 right and
in that case it’s a 78 point 2 right and if it’s greater than 50 we should act so
if it’s greater than 50 we should act so
if it’s greater than 50 we should act so here’s the thing though we don’t think
here’s the thing though we don’t think
here’s the thing though we don’t think about decisions this way when we think
about decisions this way when we think
about decisions this way when we think about decisions we ask ourselves
about decisions we ask ourselves
about decisions we ask ourselves questions and we generally ask ourselves
questions and we generally ask ourselves
questions and we generally ask ourselves this question what happens if I do
this question what happens if I do
this question what happens if I do something hope to leave you today with
something hope to leave you today with
something hope to leave you today with these three tools because at the end of
these three tools because at the end of
these three tools because at the end of the day the scientific method and these
the day the scientific method and these
the day the scientific method and these three ideas are what separates man from
three ideas are what separates man from
three ideas are what separates man from ape it’s what has allowed us in the past
ape it’s what has allowed us in the past
ape it’s what has allowed us in the past to get here to invent to progress and to
to get here to invent to progress and to
to get here to invent to progress and to thrive if we want a positive future
thrive if we want a positive future
thrive if we want a positive future these three ideas are not optional they
these three ideas are not optional they
these three ideas are not optional they are necessary let’s hope we remember how
are necessary let’s hope we remember how
are necessary let’s hope we remember how we got here before it is too late thank
we got here before it is too late thank
we got here before it is too late thank you very much
you very much
you very much [Applause]
”
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