[Music] this is all of history on one graph on
this is all of history on one graph on
this is all of history on one graph on the x-axis we have time collapsed
the x-axis we have time collapsed
the x-axis we have time collapsed logarithmic ly so we can see it all
logarithmic ly so we can see it all
logarithmic ly so we can see it all together on the y-axis is the logarithm
together on the y-axis is the logarithm
together on the y-axis is the logarithm of growth rates and you can see history
of growth rates and you can see history
of growth rates and you can see history is well summarized as a sequence of
is well summarized as a sequence of
is well summarized as a sequence of exponential growth modes during each era
exponential growth modes during each era
exponential growth modes during each era the growth rate was steady and then
the growth rate was steady and then
the growth rate was steady and then there were sudden jumps where the growth
there were sudden jumps where the growth
there were sudden jumps where the growth rate grew by a factor of 50 to 200
rate grew by a factor of 50 to 200
rate grew by a factor of 50 to 200 during the forager era humans doubled
during the forager era humans doubled
during the forager era humans doubled roughly every quarter million years for
roughly every quarter million years for
roughly every quarter million years for about two million years ago ten thousand
about two million years ago ten thousand
about two million years ago ten thousand years there was a sudden transitions to
years there was a sudden transitions to
years there was a sudden transitions to the farming revolution where farmers
the farming revolution where farmers
the farming revolution where farmers started doubling roughly a thousand
started doubling roughly a thousand
started doubling roughly a thousand years a few hundred years ago there was
years a few hundred years ago there was
years a few hundred years ago there was a sudden transition to the Industrial
a sudden transition to the Industrial
a sudden transition to the Industrial Revolution where industry has been
Revolution where industry has been
Revolution where industry has been doubling roughly every 15 years if this
doubling roughly every 15 years if this
doubling roughly every 15 years if this pattern were to continue then roughly
pattern were to continue then roughly
pattern were to continue then roughly sometime in the next century or so there
sometime in the next century or so there
sometime in the next century or so there would be a transition that took ten
would be a transition that took ten
would be a transition that took ten years or less after which the economy
years or less after which the economy
years or less after which the economy would be doubling every month and that
would be doubling every month and that
would be doubling every month and that would last for only a year or two until
would last for only a year or two until
would last for only a year or two until something else happened that would be
something else happened that would be
something else happened that would be the straightforward projection of
the straightforward projection of
the straightforward projection of history following this pattern what
history following this pattern what
history following this pattern what could possibly cause such an enormous
could possibly cause such an enormous
could possibly cause such an enormous change one of the most common
change one of the most common
change one of the most common speculations is robots as smartest
speculations is robots as smartest
speculations is robots as smartest people there are several ways that might
people there are several ways that might
people there are several ways that might conceivably happen probably the most
conceivably happen probably the most
conceivably happen probably the most straightforward way is that we keep
straightforward way is that we keep
straightforward way is that we keep accumulating software the way we’ve been
accumulating software the way we’ve been
accumulating software the way we’ve been doing for the last 70 years I used to be
doing for the last 70 years I used to be
doing for the last 70 years I used to be an AI researcher for nine years and I’ve
an AI researcher for nine years and I’ve
an AI researcher for nine years and I’ve been in the habit of talking to a our
been in the habit of talking to a our
been in the habit of talking to a our researchers who’ve been in their field
researchers who’ve been in their field
researchers who’ve been in their field for at least twenty years such as our
for at least twenty years such as our
for at least twenty years such as our last speaker and asking them the
last speaker and asking them the
last speaker and asking them the question how far have we come in the
question how far have we come in the
question how far have we come in the last 20 years as a percentage of the
last 20 years as a percentage of the
last 20 years as a percentage of the distance to human level abilities and
distance to human level abilities and
distance to human level abilities and they usually tell me five to ten percent
they usually tell me five to ten percent
they usually tell me five to ten percent of the way noticeable acceleration and
of the way noticeable acceleration and
of the way noticeable acceleration and at that rate we’re talking two to four
at that rate we’re talking two to four
at that rate we’re talking two to four centuries but that would eventually
centuries but that would eventually
centuries but that would eventually happen some people think I was described
happen some people think I was described
happen some people think I was described in a previous video
in a previous video
in a previous video that it’s gonna happen a lot faster
that it’s gonna happen a lot faster
that it’s gonna happen a lot faster because we’re gonna discover some great
because we’re gonna discover some great
because we’re gonna discover some great grand theories of intelligence or
grand theories of intelligence or
grand theories of intelligence or learning i’m skeptical but i’m gonna
learning i’m skeptical but i’m gonna
learning i’m skeptical but i’m gonna talk in this here about a third scenario
talk in this here about a third scenario
talk in this here about a third scenario it’s not guaranteed to happen but it’s
it’s not guaranteed to happen but it’s
it’s not guaranteed to happen but it’s plausible and enough to be worth
plausible and enough to be worth
plausible and enough to be worth exploring the scenario is two-port
exploring the scenario is two-port
exploring the scenario is two-port software so today if you have an old
software so today if you have an old
software so today if you have an old machine writing software you like and
machine writing software you like and
machine writing software you like and you want software like that running on a
you want software like that running on a
you want software like that running on a new machine you could try to stare at
new machine you could try to stare at
new machine you could try to stare at this software guess how it works and
this software guess how it works and
this software guess how it works and then write software in the new machine
then write software in the new machine
then write software in the new machine that works how you think it works on the
that works how you think it works on the
that works how you think it works on the old machine or you can write what’s
old machine or you can write what’s
old machine or you can write what’s called an emulator on the new machine
called an emulator on the new machine
called an emulator on the new machine that makes the new one looked like the
that makes the new one looked like the
that makes the new one looked like the old one to the software if you can write
old one to the software if you can write
old one to the software if you can write an emulator you just move the software
an emulator you just move the software
an emulator you just move the software right over and it works without you
right over and it works without you
right over and it works without you having to understand it so the idea is
having to understand it so the idea is
having to understand it so the idea is to try to do that for the human brain to
to try to do that for the human brain to
to try to do that for the human brain to make that work we’re gonna have three
make that work we’re gonna have three
make that work we’re gonna have three technologies that aren’t at the right
technologies that aren’t at the right
technologies that aren’t at the right levels yet but when they are emulations
levels yet but when they are emulations
levels yet but when they are emulations become possible one is we need lots of
become possible one is we need lots of
become possible one is we need lots of cheap fast parallel computers we don’t
cheap fast parallel computers we don’t
cheap fast parallel computers we don’t have them yet second we need to take
have them yet second we need to take
have them yet second we need to take individual brains scan them and find
individual brains scan them and find
individual brains scan them and find spatial and chemical detail to see
spatial and chemical detail to see
spatial and chemical detail to see exactly what’s we’re connected to what
exactly what’s we’re connected to what
exactly what’s we’re connected to what of what type third we need computer
of what type third we need computer
of what type third we need computer models of each kind of cell in the brain
models of each kind of cell in the brain
models of each kind of cell in the brain a model of how it takes signals in
a model of how it takes signals in
a model of how it takes signals in changes internal states and signals out
changes internal states and signals out
changes internal states and signals out if you have good enough models for all
if you have good enough models for all
if you have good enough models for all the kinds of cells a good enough scan of
the kinds of cells a good enough scan of
the kinds of cells a good enough scan of a particular brain then you can make a
a particular brain then you can make a
a particular brain then you can make a model of that entire brain an emulation
model of that entire brain an emulation
model of that entire brain an emulation of that brain and if the models and
of that brain and if the models and
of that brain and if the models and parameters are good enough then it will
parameters are good enough then it will
parameters are good enough then it will have the same input-output behavior as
have the same input-output behavior as
have the same input-output behavior as the original brain that is you could
the original brain that is you could
the original brain that is you could hook it up with artificial eyes ears
hook it up with artificial eyes ears
hook it up with artificial eyes ears hands mouth you could talk to it it
hands mouth you could talk to it it
hands mouth you could talk to it it would talk back you could ask to do jobs
would talk back you could ask to do jobs
would talk back you could ask to do jobs it might do them if it was cheap it
it might do them if it was cheap it
it might do them if it was cheap it would change everything
would change everything
would change everything now I’ve been around people talking
now I’ve been around people talking
now I’ve been around people talking about this idea for many decades
about this idea for many decades
about this idea for many decades it’s a favorite topic college
it’s a favorite topic college
it’s a favorite topic college late-night conversations and the usual
late-night conversations and the usual
late-night conversations and the usual topics that come up are is it even
topics that come up are is it even
topics that come up are is it even possible to make an emulation of a human
possible to make an emulation of a human
possible to make an emulation of a human a machine that emulates a real
a machine that emulates a real
a machine that emulates a real flesh-and-blood human if you made one
flesh-and-blood human if you made one
flesh-and-blood human if you made one would it be conscious or is it just an
would it be conscious or is it just an
would it be conscious or is it just an empty machine if you made one of me is
empty machine if you made one of me is
empty machine if you made one of me is it me or is it someone else
it me or is it someone else
it me or is it someone else these are all fascinating questions that
these are all fascinating questions that
these are all fascinating questions that I’m going to ignore because I thought
I’m going to ignore because I thought
I’m going to ignore because I thought the neglected question has been what
the neglected question has been what
the neglected question has been what would actually happen so I wrote this
would actually happen so I wrote this
would actually happen so I wrote this book to try to say of what I’m gonna
book to try to say of what I’m gonna
book to try to say of what I’m gonna explain my method on this slide and then
explain my method on this slide and then
explain my method on this slide and then from here we’re
from here we’re
from here we’re say will all the conclusions about this
say will all the conclusions about this
say will all the conclusions about this world my method is first I’m trying not
world my method is first I’m trying not
world my method is first I’m trying not to be creative or original other than by
to be creative or original other than by
to be creative or original other than by asking this unusual question just
asking this unusual question just
asking this unusual question just straightforwardly apply academic
straightforwardly apply academic
straightforwardly apply academic consensus secondly I’m gonna not say
consensus secondly I’m gonna not say
consensus secondly I’m gonna not say what should be I’m gonna just try to say
what should be I’m gonna just try to say
what should be I’m gonna just try to say what’s likely to happen if we did the
what’s likely to happen if we did the
what’s likely to happen if we did the least to avoid it you don’t have to like
least to avoid it you don’t have to like
least to avoid it you don’t have to like it not my job
it not my job
it not my job third I’m gonna focus on the robots
third I’m gonna focus on the robots
third I’m gonna focus on the robots because that’s where most of the action
because that’s where most of the action
because that’s where most of the action is but we will talk about humans I’m
is but we will talk about humans I’m
is but we will talk about humans I’m gonna try to talk about the next era
gonna try to talk about the next era
gonna try to talk about the next era after ours it’s as big as different from
after ours it’s as big as different from
after ours it’s as big as different from ours as these previous eras I’m not
ours as these previous eras I’m not
ours as these previous eras I’m not gonna tell you about the history of the
gonna tell you about the history of the
gonna tell you about the history of the universe for the next trillion years
universe for the next trillion years
universe for the next trillion years after this error other things happen I
after this error other things happen I
after this error other things happen I don’t know what I’m gonna focus on after
don’t know what I’m gonna focus on after
don’t know what I’m gonna focus on after a transition things are easier to
a transition things are easier to
a transition things are easier to predict when it’s an equilibrium during
predict when it’s an equilibrium during
predict when it’s an equilibrium during transitions things are unstable I’m
transitions things are unstable I’m
transitions things are unstable I’m gonna use our standard first cut tool of
gonna use our standard first cut tool of
gonna use our standard first cut tool of economists which is called supply and
economists which is called supply and
economists which is called supply and demand which implicitly assumes there’s
demand which implicitly assumes there’s
demand which implicitly assumes there’s lots of buyers and sellers for
lots of buyers and sellers for
lots of buyers and sellers for everything not much regulation finally
everything not much regulation finally
everything not much regulation finally I’m gonna soon the emulations themselves
I’m gonna soon the emulations themselves
I’m gonna soon the emulations themselves are as simple as they can be they’re
are as simple as they can be they’re
are as simple as they can be they’re opaque you made this emulation of
opaque you made this emulation of
opaque you made this emulation of someone it’s a black box you can turn it
someone it’s a black box you can turn it
someone it’s a black box you can turn it on turn it off
on turn it off
on turn it off erase it copy it run it fast run it slow
erase it copy it run it fast run it slow
erase it copy it run it fast run it slow that’s it
that’s it
that’s it can’t do anything else all right those
can’t do anything else all right those
can’t do anything else all right those are the rules and now let’s hear about
are the rules and now let’s hear about
are the rules and now let’s hear about the age of em first of all I can tell
the age of em first of all I can tell
the age of em first of all I can tell you a number of things that are true
you a number of things that are true
you a number of things that are true just because Em’s are robots they would
just because Em’s are robots they would
just because Em’s are robots they would be true for any world dominated by
be true for any world dominated by
be true for any world dominated by robots robots can be represented as
robots robots can be represented as
robots robots can be represented as computer files so they can be immortal
computer files so they can be immortal
computer files so they can be immortal now your houses and cars are in
now your houses and cars are in
now your houses and cars are in principle immortal because you could
principle immortal because you could
principle immortal because you could keep repairing them and they could last
keep repairing them and they could last
keep repairing them and they could last forever but that doesn’t mean you do in
forever but that doesn’t mean you do in
forever but that doesn’t mean you do in principle immortality doesn’t mean
principle immortality doesn’t mean
principle immortality doesn’t mean actual immortality it’s a possibility
actual immortality it’s a possibility
actual immortality it’s a possibility you could send computer files around the
you could send computer files around the
you could send computer files around the world at the speed of light so robots
world at the speed of light so robots
world at the speed of light so robots can move around the world at the speed
can move around the world at the speed
can move around the world at the speed of light as a file you know that if we
of light as a file you know that if we
of light as a file you know that if we accidentally kill nature you will die
accidentally kill nature you will die
accidentally kill nature you will die you are afraid rightly so robots know
you are afraid rightly so robots know
you are afraid rightly so robots know that if they are made in factories out
that if they are made in factories out
that if they are made in factories out of things dug up in mines if they
of things dug up in mines if they
of things dug up in mines if they accidentally kill nature they do not die
accidentally kill nature they do not die
accidentally kill nature they do not die they are less it’s scared of killing
they are less it’s scared of killing
they are less it’s scared of killing nature finally you can make copies of
nature finally you can make copies of
nature finally you can make copies of files and that has enormous implications
files and that has enormous implications
files and that has enormous implications first of all wages very quickly fall to
first of all wages very quickly fall to
first of all wages very quickly fall to subsistence levels because the
subsistence levels because the
subsistence levels because the population of robots can expand so
population of robots can expand so
population of robots can expand so quickly that makes the economy grow much
quickly that makes the economy grow much
quickly that makes the economy grow much faster it can plausibly double every
faster it can plausibly double every
faster it can plausibly double every month that’s
month that’s
month that’s rate forward implication of standard
rate forward implication of standard
rate forward implication of standard economic theories if it takes a year to
economic theories if it takes a year to
economic theories if it takes a year to get to Mars and the economy doubles
get to Mars and the economy doubles
get to Mars and the economy doubles every month nobody’s gonna be very
every month nobody’s gonna be very
every month nobody’s gonna be very interested in going to Mars during this
interested in going to Mars during this
interested in going to Mars during this period humans collectively must retire
period humans collectively must retire
period humans collectively must retire all at once for good now humans
all at once for good now humans
all at once for good now humans collectively owned all of the capital in
collectively owned all of the capital in
collectively owned all of the capital in this world and it economy doubles every
this world and it economy doubles every
this world and it economy doubles every month wealth doubles every month so
month wealth doubles every month so
month wealth doubles every month so collectively humans are getting rich but
collectively humans are getting rich but
collectively humans are getting rich but individual humans may not know much
individual humans may not know much
individual humans may not know much besides their ability to work so if they
besides their ability to work so if they
besides their ability to work so if they don’t get sufficient sharing and
don’t get sufficient sharing and
don’t get sufficient sharing and insurance arrangements they’re in
insurance arrangements they’re in
insurance arrangements they’re in trouble
trouble
trouble I predict that will vary some some will
I predict that will vary some some will
I predict that will vary some some will and some won’t
and some won’t
and some won’t all humans start out as simulations so
all humans start out as simulations so
all humans start out as simulations so their mental characteristics are within
their mental characteristics are within
their mental characteristics are within the human range they are recognisably
the human range they are recognisably
the human range they are recognisably human in fact when you turn one on you
human in fact when you turn one on you
human in fact when you turn one on you have to convince it it’s now the
have to convince it it’s now the
have to convince it it’s now the emulation because a moment ago it
emulation because a moment ago it
emulation because a moment ago it remembered being the human but they are
remembered being the human but they are
remembered being the human but they are not typical humans the emulation economy
not typical humans the emulation economy
not typical humans the emulation economy is very competitive and it selects the
is very competitive and it selects the
is very competitive and it selects the humans who are most productive in the
humans who are most productive in the
humans who are most productive in the emulation world and makes billions or
emulation world and makes billions or
emulation world and makes billions or trillions of copies of them so most
trillions of copies of them so most
trillions of copies of them so most simulations are copies of the few
simulations are copies of the few
simulations are copies of the few hundred most productive humans that
hundred most productive humans that
hundred most productive humans that makes the typical emulation as
makes the typical emulation as
makes the typical emulation as productive as a typical Nobel Prize
productive as a typical Nobel Prize
productive as a typical Nobel Prize winner Olympic gold medalist head of
winner Olympic gold medalist head of
winner Olympic gold medalist head of state their elite better than average
state their elite better than average
state their elite better than average and they know it if they they may look
and they know it if they they may look
and they know it if they they may look on humans with nostalgia and gratitude
on humans with nostalgia and gratitude
on humans with nostalgia and gratitude but not so much respect which is if you
but not so much respect which is if you
but not so much respect which is if you think about it how you think about your
think about it how you think about your
think about it how you think about your ancestors now we know a lot of things
ancestors now we know a lot of things
ancestors now we know a lot of things about how humans vary in terms of who’s
about how humans vary in terms of who’s
about how humans vary in terms of who’s more productive we could just use those
more productive we could just use those
more productive we could just use those things to predict features of Em’s
things to predict features of Em’s
things to predict features of Em’s they’ll be smarter more conscientious
they’ll be smarter more conscientious
they’ll be smarter more conscientious hard work or coholic scraps married
hard work or coholic scraps married
hard work or coholic scraps married religious because these are things that
religious because these are things that
religious because these are things that correlate with productivity among humans
correlate with productivity among humans
correlate with productivity among humans most jobs and in advance the economy or
most jobs and in advance the economy or
most jobs and in advance the economy or desk jobs and there’s since emulations
desk jobs and there’s since emulations
desk jobs and there’s since emulations are already on a computer there’s no
are already on a computer there’s no
are already on a computer there’s no point in building a little desk for them
point in building a little desk for them
point in building a little desk for them they might as well sit in virtual
they might as well sit in virtual
they might as well sit in virtual reality and do their desk job and in
reality and do their desk job and in
reality and do their desk job and in virtual reality it’s very cheap to give
virtual reality it’s very cheap to give
virtual reality it’s very cheap to give them a luxurious environment that’s
them a luxurious environment that’s
them a luxurious environment that’s beautiful and expensive and their bodies
beautiful and expensive and their bodies
beautiful and expensive and their bodies can be virtual and gorgeous they never
can be virtual and gorgeous they never
can be virtual and gorgeous they never need to feel pain hunger disease crime
need to feel pain hunger disease crime
need to feel pain hunger disease crime it’s a comfortable beautiful world where
it’s a comfortable beautiful world where
it’s a comfortable beautiful world where these are all desks they’re working all
these are all desks they’re working all
these are all desks they’re working all the time
the time
the time but still beautifully now the most
but still beautifully now the most
but still beautifully now the most traumatic thing that ever happened to
traumatic thing that ever happened to
traumatic thing that ever happened to humans arguably was a transition from
humans arguably was a transition from
humans arguably was a transition from foraging to farming foragers are in
foraging to farming foragers are in
foraging to farming foragers are in rough equilibrium with their environment
rough equilibrium with their environment
rough equilibrium with their environment when they do what they do what feels
when they do what they do what feels
when they do what they do what feels natural it’s usually the right thing to
natural it’s usually the right thing to
natural it’s usually the right thing to do humans were able to become farmers
do humans were able to become farmers
do humans were able to become farmers only because we have enough cultural
only because we have enough cultural
only because we have enough cultural plasticity to change and have strong
plasticity to change and have strong
plasticity to change and have strong norms that tell farmers that they have
norms that tell farmers that they have
norms that tell farmers that they have to do something different than what felt
to do something different than what felt
to do something different than what felt natural to a forger and that became
natural to a forger and that became
natural to a forger and that became possible with religion and strong
possible with religion and strong
possible with religion and strong conformity pressures but in the last few
conformity pressures but in the last few
conformity pressures but in the last few hundred years we’ve gotten rich and most
hundred years we’ve gotten rich and most
hundred years we’ve gotten rich and most of the major social trends over the last
of the major social trends over the last
of the major social trends over the last few hundred years can be understood as
few hundred years can be understood as
few hundred years can be understood as us drifting back to forager attitudes as
us drifting back to forager attitudes as
us drifting back to forager attitudes as we get rich the social pressures that
we get rich the social pressures that
we get rich the social pressures that turned foragers into farmers no longer
turned foragers into farmers no longer
turned foragers into farmers no longer feel compelling when we’re rich this can
feel compelling when we’re rich this can
feel compelling when we’re rich this can continue to be true for the humans but
continue to be true for the humans but
continue to be true for the humans but no longer true for the emulations they
no longer true for the emulations they
no longer true for the emulations they have need of the social pressures as
have need of the social pressures as
have need of the social pressures as farmers did so emulations go back to
farmers did so emulations go back to
farmers did so emulations go back to more farmer style attitudes it’s no
more farmer style attitudes it’s no
more farmer style attitudes it’s no longer a Star Trek future for them it’s
longer a Star Trek future for them it’s
longer a Star Trek future for them it’s more something else again you don’t have
more something else again you don’t have
more something else again you don’t have to like it I’m just telling you my best
to like it I’m just telling you my best
to like it I’m just telling you my best guess of what’s likely to happen this is
guess of what’s likely to happen this is
guess of what’s likely to happen this is your life you start and then you end
your life you start and then you end
your life you start and then you end this is the life of an emulation who
this is the life of an emulation who
this is the life of an emulation who everyday splits off a small number of
everyday splits off a small number of
everyday splits off a small number of short copies who do short-term tasks and
short copies who do short-term tasks and
short copies who do short-term tasks and then end or retire this is much cheaper
then end or retire this is much cheaper
then end or retire this is much cheaper so the main line copy has to rest
so the main line copy has to rest
so the main line copy has to rest through most of the day and that only
through most of the day and that only
through most of the day and that only works a part of the day each of these
works a part of the day each of these
works a part of the day each of these short-term copies they’re all work we’ll
short-term copies they’re all work we’ll
short-term copies they’re all work we’ll talk more about that in a minute this is
talk more about that in a minute this is
talk more about that in a minute this is an emulation who’s opportunistic they
an emulation who’s opportunistic they
an emulation who’s opportunistic they make more copies of the versions of
make more copies of the versions of
make more copies of the versions of themselves which are in more demand less
themselves which are in more demand less
themselves which are in more demand less of others they don’t know which versions
of others they don’t know which versions
of others they don’t know which versions will be popular and where their future
will be popular and where their future
will be popular and where their future is going to go this is an emulation
is going to go this is an emulation
is going to go this is an emulation designer they conceive of a large system
designer they conceive of a large system
designer they conceive of a large system when one copy and then they split into
when one copy and then they split into
when one copy and then they split into copies to elaborate the design in the
copies to elaborate the design in the
copies to elaborate the design in the various parts all the way down until
various parts all the way down until
various parts all the way down until they’ve implemented the entire design in
they’ve implemented the entire design in
they’ve implemented the entire design in this way a single emulation it can
this way a single emulation it can
this way a single emulation it can implement conceive and implement a much
implement conceive and implement a much
implement conceive and implement a much larger more coherent design than humans
larger more coherent design than humans
larger more coherent design than humans can today where one person designs and
can today where one person designs and
can today where one person designs and other people implement this is an
other people implement this is an
other people implement this is an emulation plumber who remembers that for
emulation plumber who remembers that for
emulation plumber who remembers that for 20 years everyday they only ever work
20 years everyday they only ever work
20 years everyday they only ever work two hours a day a life of leisure what
two hours a day a life of leisure what
two hours a day a life of leisure what actually happened is that every day they
actually happened is that every day they
actually happened is that every day they split into a thousand copies each of
split into a thousand copies each of
split into a thousand copies each of whom did a two hour plumbing job and
whom did a two hour plumbing job and
whom did a two hour plumbing job and only one of them in
only one of them in
only one of them in on to the next day objectively they are
on to the next day objectively they are
on to the next day objectively they are working well over 99% of the time
working well over 99% of the time
working well over 99% of the time subjectively they remember a life of
subjectively they remember a life of
subjectively they remember a life of leisure we know of many systems like
leisure we know of many systems like
leisure we know of many systems like software and the human brain which have
software and the human brain which have
software and the human brain which have the feature that as they adapt to
the feature that as they adapt to
the feature that as they adapt to circumstances they become fragile and
circumstances they become fragile and
circumstances they become fragile and harder to readapt to new circumstances
harder to readapt to new circumstances
harder to readapt to new circumstances humans start out with fluid intelligence
humans start out with fluid intelligence
humans start out with fluid intelligence when you’re young like you later on we
when you’re young like you later on we
when you’re young like you later on we have crystallized intelligence where we
have crystallized intelligence where we
have crystallized intelligence where we know a lot but we hard find it harder to
know a lot but we hard find it harder to
know a lot but we hard find it harder to learn new tricks
learn new tricks
learn new tricks this plausibly means that emulations
this plausibly means that emulations
this plausibly means that emulations even if they’re immortal they have a
even if they’re immortal they have a
even if they’re immortal they have a limited career length after which they
limited career length after which they
limited career length after which they need to retire and then they are
need to retire and then they are
need to retire and then they are replaced by younger versions of
replaced by younger versions of
replaced by younger versions of themselves who have been training and
themselves who have been training and
themselves who have been training and slightly newer ways so emulations see
slightly newer ways so emulations see
slightly newer ways so emulations see their future in great detail around them
their future in great detail around them
their future in great detail around them they see slightly older versions of
they see slightly older versions of
they see slightly older versions of themselves so they know where they’re
themselves so they know where they’re
themselves so they know where they’re gonna work and live who they’ll marry so
gonna work and live who they’ll marry so
gonna work and live who they’ll marry so they know their marriages are gonna work
they know their marriages are gonna work
they know their marriages are gonna work out because they see the other version
out because they see the other version
out because they see the other version working out now again this is you start
working out now again this is you start
working out now again this is you start an un this could be you at the beginning
an un this could be you at the beginning
an un this could be you at the beginning of party where you take a drug at the
of party where you take a drug at the
of party where you take a drug at the beginning of a party which means you
beginning of a party which means you
beginning of a party which means you won’t remember that party the next day
won’t remember that party the next day
won’t remember that party the next day or ever after I’m told some people do
or ever after I’m told some people do
or ever after I’m told some people do that my question for you is at the end
that my question for you is at the end
that my question for you is at the end of this party will you say to yourself
of this party will you say to yourself
of this party will you say to yourself I’m about to die I was created as a new
I’m about to die I was created as a new
I’m about to die I was created as a new peach creature at the beginning of this
peach creature at the beginning of this
peach creature at the beginning of this party the other person who lives on
party the other person who lives on
party the other person who lives on tomorrow that’s not me because they
tomorrow that’s not me because they
tomorrow that’s not me because they don’t remember me I hate a being about
don’t remember me I hate a being about
don’t remember me I hate a being about to die why did I get myself into this
to die why did I get myself into this
to die why did I get myself into this you could have that attitude or you
you could have that attitude or you
you could have that attitude or you could say to yourself that person
could say to yourself that person
could say to yourself that person tomorrow that’s me I will go on but I
tomorrow that’s me I will go on but I
tomorrow that’s me I will go on but I just won’t remember what I did tonight
just won’t remember what I did tonight
just won’t remember what I did tonight both of those are valid attitudes now
both of those are valid attitudes now
both of those are valid attitudes now this is the same structure an emulation
this is the same structure an emulation
this is the same structure an emulation splits off a short-term copy to stand in
splits off a short-term copy to stand in
splits off a short-term copy to stand in line at the DMV or whatever and then
line at the DMV or whatever and then
line at the DMV or whatever and then ends they can think of this new copy as
ends they can think of this new copy as
ends they can think of this new copy as a new creature who has a short life and
a new creature who has a short life and
a new creature who has a short life and they hate that or they could think of it
they hate that or they could think of it
they hate that or they could think of it as another part of themselves that they
as another part of themselves that they
as another part of themselves that they won’t remember I predict I’ll have that
won’t remember I predict I’ll have that
won’t remember I predict I’ll have that second attitude not because it’s
second attitude not because it’s
second attitude not because it’s philosophically correct it’s just the
philosophically correct it’s just the
philosophically correct it’s just the attitude you need to have to get along
attitude you need to have to get along
attitude you need to have to get along in this world that’s a very productive
in this world that’s a very productive
in this world that’s a very productive advantage if you have that attitude
advantage if you have that attitude
advantage if you have that attitude today it’s hard to meet celebrities
today it’s hard to meet celebrities
today it’s hard to meet celebrities their time is very valuable they’re rare
their time is very valuable they’re rare
their time is very valuable they’re rare for the emulations if you think about it
for the emulations if you think about it
for the emulations if you think about it it’s easy to meet celebrities they just
it’s easy to meet celebrities they just
it’s easy to meet celebrities they just spit off another copy and you interact
spit off another copy and you interact
spit off another copy and you interact with that other copy and then that copy
with that other copy and then that copy
with that other copy and then that copy ends the hard thing to do is to get a
ends the hard thing to do is to get a
ends the hard thing to do is to get a celebrity to remember you because
celebrity to remember you because
celebrity to remember you because remember that copy that
remember that copy that
remember that copy that doesn’t remember the other parts so
doesn’t remember the other parts so
doesn’t remember the other parts so emulations can use this to an advantage
emulations can use this to an advantage
emulations can use this to an advantage however so today if the president your
however so today if the president your
however so today if the president your leader tells you we must invade Iraq and
leader tells you we must invade Iraq and
leader tells you we must invade Iraq and you say why and they say can’t tell you
you say why and they say can’t tell you
you say why and they say can’t tell you state secrets you don’t know whether to
state secrets you don’t know whether to
state secrets you don’t know whether to trust them for an emulation however the
trust them for an emulation however the
trust them for an emulation however the President and you can both make a copy
President and you can both make a copy
President and you can both make a copy who go inside is safe and inside the
who go inside is safe and inside the
who go inside is safe and inside the safe they could explain all their secret
safe they could explain all their secret
safe they could explain all their secret reasons do you and at the end you decide
reasons do you and at the end you decide
reasons do you and at the end you decide if you’re convinced or not you send one
if you’re convinced or not you send one
if you’re convinced or not you send one bit out back to your original version
bit out back to your original version
bit out back to your original version was I convinced so your original version
was I convinced so your original version
was I convinced so your original version can hear yes there’s a good reason I
can hear yes there’s a good reason I
can hear yes there’s a good reason I don’t know what it is but apparently I
don’t know what it is but apparently I
don’t know what it is but apparently I was just convinced a few moments ago
was just convinced a few moments ago
was just convinced a few moments ago that there’s a good reason for this so
that there’s a good reason for this so
that there’s a good reason for this so leaders can be more trusted today in our
leaders can be more trusted today in our
leaders can be more trusted today in our live we have three stages of a life we
live we have three stages of a life we
live we have three stages of a life we train and then we work and then we
train and then we work and then we
train and then we work and then we retire and they have the same three
retire and they have the same three
retire and they have the same three stages but they can train a small number
stages but they can train a small number
stages but they can train a small number of copies and then pick the very best of
of copies and then pick the very best of
of copies and then pick the very best of those and then make many copies who work
those and then make many copies who work
those and then make many copies who work so they can invest a lot more resources
so they can invest a lot more resources
so they can invest a lot more resources and training it’s training as much
and training it’s training as much
and training it’s training as much cheaper for them and later on when they
cheaper for them and later on when they
cheaper for them and later on when they retire if they’re not rich enough to
retire if they’re not rich enough to
retire if they’re not rich enough to just go on retiring the way they were
just go on retiring the way they were
just go on retiring the way they were living then they can just run slow and
living then they can just run slow and
living then they can just run slow and retire slow so I told you they could run
retire slow so I told you they could run
retire slow so I told you they could run at different speeds and cost is
at different speeds and cost is
at different speeds and cost is proportional to speed so if you only
proportional to speed so if you only
proportional to speed so if you only have one hundreds as much resources it
have one hundreds as much resources it
have one hundreds as much resources it takes to go on at a regular speed while
takes to go on at a regular speed while
takes to go on at a regular speed while you just go down to one hundredth of
you just go down to one hundredth of
you just go down to one hundredth of speed and you can continue on and retire
speed and you can continue on and retire
speed and you can continue on and retire at a slow speed now emulations can run
at a slow speed now emulations can run
at a slow speed now emulations can run up many different speeds and they would
up many different speeds and they would
up many different speeds and they would probably clump in to speed so they can
probably clump in to speed so they can
probably clump in to speed so they can interact with others at the same speed
interact with others at the same speed
interact with others at the same speed and that is true over a very wide range
and that is true over a very wide range
and that is true over a very wide range that they could spend more and then run
that they could spend more and then run
that they could spend more and then run faster so they can possibly run up to a
faster so they can possibly run up to a
faster so they can possibly run up to a million times faster than humans or down
million times faster than humans or down
million times faster than humans or down to a billion times slower than humans
to a billion times slower than humans
to a billion times slower than humans this creates an enormous class hierarchy
this creates an enormous class hierarchy
this creates an enormous class hierarchy hi class Thames at the top are really
hi class Thames at the top are really
hi class Thames at the top are really our higher status they have many of them
our higher status they have many of them
our higher status they have many of them markers that we treat it as high status
markers that we treat it as high status
markers that we treat it as high status in our world and at the bottom they are
in our world and at the bottom they are
in our world and at the bottom they are lower status and in fact lowers slow
lower status and in fact lowers slow
lower status and in fact lowers slow ends are kind of like ghosts in our
ends are kind of like ghosts in our
ends are kind of like ghosts in our literature if you recall ghosts are
literature if you recall ghosts are
literature if you recall ghosts are these creatures who are all around
these creatures who are all around
these creatures who are all around they’re obsessed with the past they
they’re obsessed with the past they
they’re obsessed with the past they can’t influence once if you talk to them
can’t influence once if you talk to them
can’t influence once if you talk to them they don’t know much so what’s the point
they don’t know much so what’s the point
they don’t know much so what’s the point there’s ghosts but you might as well
there’s ghosts but you might as well
there’s ghosts but you might as well ignore them in our world we clumped
ignore them in our world we clumped
ignore them in our world we clumped together in cities but we aren’t all
together in cities but we aren’t all
together in cities but we aren’t all together in one big city because as we
together in one big city because as we
together in one big city because as we have bigger cities they start to have
have bigger cities they start to have
have bigger cities they start to have larger and larger costs of congestion it
larger and larger costs of congestion it
larger and larger costs of congestion it takes longer and more expensive to get
takes longer and more expensive to get
takes longer and more expensive to get around emulations however in a large
around emulations however in a large
around emulations however in a large city they
city they
city they can interact with others using virtual
can interact with others using virtual
can interact with others using virtual reality without actually sending their
reality without actually sending their
reality without actually sending their mind or body and that means it’s cheap
mind or body and that means it’s cheap
mind or body and that means it’s cheap for them to interact across a wide scope
for them to interact across a wide scope
for them to interact across a wide scope and their cities can therefore be much
and their cities can therefore be much
and their cities can therefore be much larger and more dense so emulations
larger and more dense so emulations
larger and more dense so emulations probably do concentrate into a small
probably do concentrate into a small
probably do concentrate into a small number of very dense cities for us
number of very dense cities for us
number of very dense cities for us because the speeds we run we have
because the speeds we run we have
because the speeds we run we have roughly a tenth of per second second
roughly a tenth of per second second
roughly a tenth of per second second delay in our reaction time and that’s
delay in our reaction time and that’s
delay in our reaction time and that’s enough time for the light signal to go
enough time for the light signal to go
enough time for the light signal to go across the entire earth
across the entire earth
across the entire earth so in virtual reality if you’re
so in virtual reality if you’re
so in virtual reality if you’re interacting with somebody else you don’t
interacting with somebody else you don’t
interacting with somebody else you don’t actually know where they are on the
actually know where they are on the
actually know where they are on the earth you feel fast enough signal but
earth you feel fast enough signal but
earth you feel fast enough signal but emulations who run faster than humans
emulations who run faster than humans
emulations who run faster than humans for example if they’re running sixteen
for example if they’re running sixteen
for example if they’re running sixteen times faster than humans that need to be
times faster than humans that need to be
times faster than humans that need to be within roughly a thousand kilometers
within roughly a thousand kilometers
within roughly a thousand kilometers before they won’t notice where the other
before they won’t notice where the other
before they won’t notice where the other one is for a signal to light and if they
one is for a signal to light and if they
one is for a signal to light and if they run even faster the circle gets even
run even faster the circle gets even
run even faster the circle gets even narrower or how close they have to be on
narrower or how close they have to be on
narrower or how close they have to be on the other hand if they run too slow and
the other hand if they run too slow and
the other hand if they run too slow and they train for a career then their
they train for a career then their
they train for a career then their career will basically be over too fast
career will basically be over too fast
career will basically be over too fast because the world changes so by doubling
because the world changes so by doubling
because the world changes so by doubling every month so the sweet spot on the
every month so the sweet spot on the
every month so the sweet spot on the trade-off between these two factors is
trade-off between these two factors is
trade-off between these two factors is roughly a thousand times human speed so
roughly a thousand times human speed so
roughly a thousand times human speed so I predict humans run roughly at a
I predict humans run roughly at a
I predict humans run roughly at a thousand times human speed and that
thousand times human speed and that
thousand times human speed and that means from their point of view their
means from their point of view their
means from their point of view their world is more stable and changing less
world is more stable and changing less
world is more stable and changing less than your world is for you this is my
than your world is for you this is my
than your world is for you this is my last slide I know from previous
last slide I know from previous
last slide I know from previous experience that you guys are eager to
experience that you guys are eager to
experience that you guys are eager to evaluate this world and decide whether
evaluate this world and decide whether
evaluate this world and decide whether you like it or not but think your
you like it or not but think your
you like it or not but think your ancestors from a thousand or more years
ancestors from a thousand or more years
ancestors from a thousand or more years ago if they had heard about your world
ago if they had heard about your world
ago if they had heard about your world they would have loved it or hated it
they would have loved it or hated it
they would have loved it or hated it depending on the first few things they
depending on the first few things they
depending on the first few things they heard because your world is really just
heard because your world is really just
heard because your world is really just weird
weird
weird so maybe you should pause before you
so maybe you should pause before you
so maybe you should pause before you evaluate this else think about it maybe
evaluate this else think about it maybe
evaluate this else think about it maybe even read a book on it and but I’m gonna
even read a book on it and but I’m gonna
even read a book on it and but I’m gonna summarize for the moment some of the
summarize for the moment some of the
summarize for the moment some of the major pluses and minuses of this world
major pluses and minuses of this world
major pluses and minuses of this world if you want to evaluate it first they
if you want to evaluate it first they
if you want to evaluate it first they spend most time working and leisure in
spend most time working and leisure in
spend most time working and leisure in virtual reality where there’s no pain
virtual reality where there’s no pain
virtual reality where there’s no pain hunger disease grime their bodies are
hunger disease grime their bodies are
hunger disease grime their bodies are always beautiful there’s a vast
always beautiful there’s a vast
always beautiful there’s a vast population finding it life worth living
population finding it life worth living
population finding it life worth living have you ever said I couldn’t live in a
have you ever said I couldn’t live in a
have you ever said I couldn’t live in a small town because there’s not enough
small town because there’s not enough
small town because there’s not enough going on there that’s what they say
going on there that’s what they say
going on there that’s what they say about your cities because there’s a much
about your cities because there’s a much
about your cities because there’s a much larger more intricate larger economy can
larger more intricate larger economy can
larger more intricate larger economy can afford better art music and all sorts of
afford better art music and all sorts of
afford better art music and all sorts of things on the other hand most of them
things on the other hand most of them
things on the other hand most of them are living at Malthusian subsistence
are living at Malthusian subsistence
are living at Malthusian subsistence wages which is how pretty much all
wages which is how pretty much all
wages which is how pretty much all humans ever lived until a few hundred
humans ever lived until a few hundred
humans ever lived until a few hundred years ago and how pretty much all
years ago and how pretty much all
years ago and how pretty much all animals have ever lived so it’s not
animals have ever lived so it’s not
animals have ever lived so it’s not strange hypothetical it’s the usual case
strange hypothetical it’s the usual case
strange hypothetical it’s the usual case history there’s more inequality in this
history there’s more inequality in this
history there’s more inequality in this world not just of wealth but also of
world not just of wealth but also of
world not just of wealth but also of class and speed they probably have
class and speed they probably have
class and speed they probably have larger more bureaucratic firms less
larger more bureaucratic firms less
larger more bureaucratic firms less nature perhaps less space travel less
nature perhaps less space travel less
nature perhaps less space travel less democracy more religion this is the age
democracy more religion this is the age
democracy more religion this is the age of em remember it’s not my job to make
of em remember it’s not my job to make
of em remember it’s not my job to make you love it or hate it just to tell you
you love it or hate it just to tell you
you love it or hate it just to tell you what I think’s most likely to happen if
what I think’s most likely to happen if
what I think’s most likely to happen if we did the least to avoid it if you
we did the least to avoid it if you
we did the least to avoid it if you don’t like this world do something to
don’t like this world do something to
don’t like this world do something to change it
change it
change it thank you
”
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