What if a rising tide doesn’t lift all boats? Wellbeing in Italy. | Giovanni Vecchi | TEDxLakeComo

[Music]

I am an economist, an economic historian

that deals with wellness and as such

I thought about starting this one

conversation from the internal product pil

gross

because the Italians’ pil is a bit

we look at him from some concerns

I stopped growing even it is

stopped went back and now not

resumes and I have a bit of perspective

historical to this analysis because it will draw

benefit from the large amount of data

which was elaborated by historians

in the last two decades

so to tell a little bit about it

history and have the benefit of going up a bit

on the mountain to look at the contours

of the forest rather than being alone inside

the forest then the question that me

I put all this attention right

this concern we have for the

pil

the answer is yes, the short answer

But I’m here to say but yes, but there

also a but that I think you deserve a little

of attention then he began saying

which of course we take for granted

that there is growth to growth

economic

but this is a fact historically

brand new I will try to show you

some few numbers but in short

christie with omega is a creature

modern for millions of years

the man was not able to

improve their living conditions

not permanently not in way

significant

then something happened they know it too

my children at lecce media schools now

there was the one that the nobel prize

for the economy 2015 angus deaton has

called the great escape writing this

great beautiful book escape from what

from misery from premature death ed

it’s a great escape that we know

everyone started with the group la

industrial revolution in england

in the late nineteenth century and then slowly

all countries have

tried to imitate this model

I’ll show you on this slide

the great escape of the Italians these

are estimated data recently in which

we have the time on the horizontal axis

I start the chart in short

I could have gone back a lot

even further back to get big

way to March 17, 1861 when it was

proclaimed the kingdom of Italy in the axis

vertical I put the internal product

gross pil and what I find out I find out

these were a couple of war

world that I know we are here is there

a little we do not have the pil yet

of the new president because he is not

still December so we have to tab

born what one sees from those one thing

that is what I said before the

normality was stagnation

and then there was a great leap

extraordinary leap that when it is

we look with measured in the meter of the

history has happened in a long time

very fast because this line I would have

I could take her back to the times

Caesar would not have changed much

so we have in a slide in the

our history a very fast progress

on which nobody bet very fast

very fast but very very limited in

time and then as you see there is a

worrying

let’s say hint of degrowth the same

escape occurred in other dimensions of the

well-being this is the hope of life

at birth we have the same time

in the horizontal axis and we have this

extraordinary ability of the Italians

that have become the most people

long-lived in the world according to al alone

japan so another nice page of

history there is a ma and here begins the but if

this was not this is the only thing

that appears in the books we have not

there is so far in historiography

Italian but also to this reflection

history economic growth is not a

Neutral process does not benefit everyone

not always not to the same extent e

so I wonder what we know

well this is a graph that shows

that if I look

again to the case of Italy in the course

of 150 years Italy has succeeded at the

net inflation of these things

you can increase your income

about 12 times per capita if I look

Northern Italy and I look at Italy of the

South they get different mary in the middle

north has grown much more than that

not at noon

this is an example of great escape into

which some went faster than

others may ask for more and i

economic historians and ask at the level

of region I come from Modena are a lot

it is not by chance that there is this

the emilia romagna slide is the country

that is the region that has grown more

you quickly understand to make it short is

a selective escape not all not always

not to the same extent can be done

much better than this though it is

difficult if I want to understand how

wellness analyst who you are

distributes the benefit of growth

I should know how to enter the houses

some people know how to travel

back in time to know the income or

everyone’s expenses and then try to

follow this problem

difficult because the istat collects i

family budgets starting the istat

the first budgets were born there in 1926

we have for 1968

so how do you go back to

understand our history for a period

in which there was not even the budgets yes

collect and what I did for 20

years

Italian families’ budgets like

many other couples have obtained

I have collected it in twenty years

over twenty thousand I show you that

what comes out

this is a story that we must

overlap with what I have done to you

see of the pil that increases this is the

history of the distribution of the

income inequality

this is always the time in the axis

horizontal but in the vertical axis or one

index of gini is an index that much

high when there is a lot of inequality e

it decreases when there is a lot

equality we find a story

gorgeous

the Italians managed to escape

from misery and they have succeeded

combining this great growth with one

ability to share to distribute

because the inequality in the long

period has decreased but you see that

something has broken something it is

jammed around the beginning of the years

90 this is a summary indicator

which still gives us a page of which

to be very proud of growth and

we know this kind of highlights for

many few countries in the world today in

this we are pioneers and we write one

nice page of history we can do

even more I show you this

graphic and technical but worth it

because he taught me so much

chart works like this this time

I consider a period of the first 50 years

liberal Italy and I wonder

we take all the people who have

lived in that list around

century and in the horizontal lapse I put the

population ordering it from the poor people to

rich then or the poor middle class and

half and then or the rich on the right in the

vertical axis measure of how much is

increased income during these

fifty years the red line tells me

look on average during these in

average but the average Italian does not exist

we are for this on average grew up

a little less than one percent

they were years in which Italy did not have

still taken the trajectory of the

Industrial Revolution

the chart tells us what it tells us

exactly who won those who lost

who is above the line means that it is

grown more than average means that

in one way or another he managed to

benefit more from growth

economic and that not others from this

chart we learn that during this period

of time being very poor here a

left to be very rich is not

been the best of all times

these were under the red line

here was born the middle class is fed

and in particular the upper middle class

the part a little higher

time runs this graph and it

we can repeat I was done with everyone

these family budgets or a curve

for liberal Italy or another curve

for fascist Italy or another curve

for the difficult years that are followed

to the oil shock up to the crisis

of 1992 and then to the present day

Now my students plague them the

details because and here ‘s where it is

I stayed four minutes what I have to do

to say

we learn something very important to

growth has wrapped very different

history never repeats itself in one

somehow the winners and the losers

depend on the historical periods is one

bad idea to be poor in this

time we live in now you see

that here more and more poor and yes

move away from growth and average and into

more we are in negative territory produced

idea a middle class that defends i

super rich

the nature and the quality of growth

it is very different then the growth for

itself is very important but naturally

it is not enough to draw and make sense one

judgment of the distribution of the

benefits from which a first consideration

that tells us that economic growth is

a necessary thing but in no way

for no reason sufficient for

ensure everyone’s welfare admitted that

we naturally share this

value this is the last chart and it is

very beautifull

I always put time in the axis

horizontal then I did something

complicated I asked myself if I take

the first decade 1861 1870 which is the

country in the world that grows more in

hurry during those ten years and then me

I am asked and what is the worst country

is the answer is the worst country the

China the best and the new country

zealand

I’ve been doing this for all the decades

so I found it does not interest us

nothing now to know who is the most

good boy

I found the line of the best and the

line of the worst during the last ones

150 years

this draws a cone that is great

divergence is this great process of

unequal growth of the world

and then I put in ours

italietta that the red line here

discovering something for the terrible children

Italy is the worst country in the world

during the decade 2000 2010 since

per capita income growth rates

This leaves me a second message

growth is very important because

here we are saying that we are doing

not just bad but particularly bad and

we are learning that growth

it can then be interrupted seriously and perhaps

to the word crisis

I used a different word here not

sorry where I used the word decline

which is a much more serious thing

Venice of the fourteenth century is cultural

I disappear and come back, but maybe later

a few centuries

I start to conclude I must have

fear of this decline

yes but this is a dress with which I have

open angus deaton says however state

we are reasonably calm

science riley works the technology and the

science will save us will guarantee that

in one way in the other we will overcome

this too we will have a new giolitti

we will have new inaudi we will have, however, I know

technology will save us that

the Italians who have done so but

they do not understand this, certainly not

We understand

yet we are in the position that I have you

let him see little

then this only two slides for i

two minutes left to me the first is

this is not science and technology

are neutral phenomena imply e

they involve many tensions within

a company there are sectors that

they disappear there are sectors that explode

a society must want this

change must know how to handle this

tension if the inequalities increase

too much the social fabric

He begins to fray there are people

they go to the polls and they make gods depart

mechanisms that can not be made

possible adoption of technology

even if a company out there can not

be able to do this social

capabilities

it is an expression used by a scholar

which is called abramowitz books

beautiful wrote and now I join

all the pieces to leave me embittered

I fear because there is no happy ending

then when he was running here

then the portrait of our country

seen in its entire post story

unitary is that of a country that has

stopped growing for a period that

they did not know he ever met

before

I am 25 years old that country and difficulties

have and observe indicators like the

inequality of growth and the

rapidly increasing poverty

when this happens if they have any

consequences that no longer know what to do

dealing with the economy but with society

we begin to develop values

Intolerance closing research

of income

the fear that leads to having instead

competition closing these values are

those that inhibit social

capabilities that prevent one

company to the ruling class to say

we must manage change but it is

the only salvation to continue to

grow and transmit well-being to

children and generations

that come no soccer cup ability no

science no technology we will not succeed

adopt to stay to accommodate i

changes that require innovation

scientific and if there is no social

capabilities

there is no main engine that is

what has kept out the world

from poverty

until now the technology my

conclusion is growth is fine

I suggest to the ruling class a

which we all belong to introduce

three other words three other indicators from

monitor inequality in people

they do because they have a bit of allergies to

this thing good or bad that it is but

poverty

Italians do not care much and

looking forward to the three words with which

I leave you with whom I believe

and that’s what I try to explain to

students my children I love

the three words are culture growth

of course but that it is a growth of

inclusive type because these

inequalities do not lead us to not there

they will allow the march to continue

towards progress, thanks

[Applause]