the physics guy is up and looks like no one left that’s good okay so I’m going
one left that’s good okay so I’m going
one left that’s good okay so I’m going to talk to you today about a couple of
to talk to you today about a couple of
to talk to you today about a couple of passions of mine one is nuclear weapons
passions of mine one is nuclear weapons
passions of mine one is nuclear weapons the other one is cadet leadership
the other one is cadet leadership
the other one is cadet leadership development and I’m not as good of a
development and I’m not as good of a
development and I’m not as good of a speaker as the previous speaker so I
speaker as the previous speaker so I
speaker as the previous speaker so I have some words on the slides help me
have some words on the slides help me
have some words on the slides help me along so the first thing I’m going to do
along so the first thing I’m going to do
along so the first thing I’m going to do is ask a question these things are all
is ask a question these things are all
is ask a question these things are all related you’ll see
related you’ll see
related you’ll see so should you show up fashionably late
so should you show up fashionably late
so should you show up fashionably late or on time to a party to meet a friend
or on time to a party to meet a friend
or on time to a party to meet a friend and to analyze the situation we’re gonna
and to analyze the situation we’re gonna
and to analyze the situation we’re gonna look at what we call a payoff matrix
look at what we call a payoff matrix
look at what we call a payoff matrix okay so we’re gonna analyze the
okay so we’re gonna analyze the
okay so we’re gonna analyze the situation from the fact of if we receive
situation from the fact of if we receive
situation from the fact of if we receive payoffs from these different outcomes so
payoffs from these different outcomes so
payoffs from these different outcomes so we have you and your friend so if you
we have you and your friend so if you
we have you and your friend so if you show up late you’re gonna receive some
show up late you’re gonna receive some
show up late you’re gonna receive some payoff from that outcome right you show
payoff from that outcome right you show
payoff from that outcome right you show up when your friend is likely to be
up when your friend is likely to be
up when your friend is likely to be there so that’s a good thing but if you
there so that’s a good thing but if you
there so that’s a good thing but if you decide to show up on time your payoff
decide to show up on time your payoff
decide to show up on time your payoff depends immensely on what your friend
depends immensely on what your friend
depends immensely on what your friend decides to do so if you show up on time
decides to do so if you show up on time
decides to do so if you show up on time and your friend is on time that’s really
and your friend is on time that’s really
and your friend is on time that’s really good everyone’s really happy you get
good everyone’s really happy you get
good everyone’s really happy you get spend a lot of time together the emoji
spend a lot of time together the emoji
spend a lot of time together the emoji says so but if you just show up on time
says so but if you just show up on time
says so but if you just show up on time and your friend is late now you’re
and your friend is late now you’re
and your friend is late now you’re really upset you’re really annoyed you
really upset you’re really annoyed you
really upset you’re really annoyed you really lonely so now you get no payoff
really lonely so now you get no payoff
really lonely so now you get no payoff from that outcome and so we can fill out
from that outcome and so we can fill out
from that outcome and so we can fill out this payoff matrix for your friend as
this payoff matrix for your friend as
this payoff matrix for your friend as well and so if we analyze the situation
well and so if we analyze the situation
well and so if we analyze the situation we see a couple of things one you choose
we see a couple of things one you choose
we see a couple of things one you choose what you do based on what your friend
what you do based on what your friend
what you do based on what your friend might do and so if your friend arrives
might do and so if your friend arrives
might do and so if your friend arrives on time it’s best for you to arrive on
on time it’s best for you to arrive on
on time it’s best for you to arrive on time if your friend arrives late it’s
time if your friend arrives late it’s
time if your friend arrives late it’s best for you to arrive late and this is
best for you to arrive late and this is
best for you to arrive late and this is a problem we see there’s an optimal
a problem we see there’s an optimal
a problem we see there’s an optimal solution if everyone arrives on time
solution if everyone arrives on time
solution if everyone arrives on time that’s great but if we’re really
that’s great but if we’re really
that’s great but if we’re really risk-averse and we’re logical thinkers
risk-averse and we’re logical thinkers
risk-averse and we’re logical thinkers then we’re probably going to slide down
then we’re probably going to slide down
then we’re probably going to slide down to this bottom right corner and arrive
to this bottom right corner and arrive
to this bottom right corner and arrive late we all do it I know you do it so an
late we all do it I know you do it so an
late we all do it I know you do it so an optimal solution is this but it is risky
okay so now let’s expand this to nuclear
okay so now let’s expand this to nuclear weapons
weapons
weapons so should you dismantle your nuclear
so should you dismantle your nuclear
so should you dismantle your nuclear weapons program so here’s a situation
weapons program so here’s a situation
weapons program so here’s a situation same kind of two-by-two payoff matrix
same kind of two-by-two payoff matrix
same kind of two-by-two payoff matrix player a player B your player a and so
player a player B your player a and so
player a player B your player a and so you have another country that may or may
you have another country that may or may
you have another country that may or may not disarm and so if you do decide to
not disarm and so if you do decide to
not disarm and so if you do decide to disarm I’m sorry if you decide just keep
disarm I’m sorry if you decide just keep
disarm I’m sorry if you decide just keep your nukes you get some payoff from that
your nukes you get some payoff from that
your nukes you get some payoff from that you get some security but if you decide
you get some security but if you decide
you get some security but if you decide to disarm your payoff depends on what
to disarm your payoff depends on what
to disarm your payoff depends on what your adversary does so if everyone gets
your adversary does so if everyone gets
your adversary does so if everyone gets rid of their nukes that’s really good no
rid of their nukes that’s really good no
rid of their nukes that’s really good no threat of nuclear war everyone’s happy
threat of nuclear war everyone’s happy
threat of nuclear war everyone’s happy but if you disarm in your adversary
but if you disarm in your adversary
but if you disarm in your adversary keeps his nukes you get no payoff you
keeps his nukes you get no payoff you
keeps his nukes you get no payoff you have the threat of being attacked so we
have the threat of being attacked so we
have the threat of being attacked so we fill out this payoff matrix again and we
fill out this payoff matrix again and we
fill out this payoff matrix again and we see the same payoff structure that we
see the same payoff structure that we
see the same payoff structure that we saw with the fashionable lateness game
we can expand this to FC DT so who
we can expand this to FC DT so who actually knows that FC D T stands for
actually knows that FC D T stands for
actually knows that FC D T stands for one that’s good
one that’s good
one that’s good okay so fourth class development time
okay so fourth class development time
okay so fourth class development time this is the time that yearlings are
this is the time that yearlings are
this is the time that yearlings are supposed to spend with their plebs so
supposed to spend with their plebs so
supposed to spend with their plebs so here’s a situation should you invest
here’s a situation should you invest
here’s a situation should you invest your time and conduct FC DT again we run
your time and conduct FC DT again we run
your time and conduct FC DT again we run through the same kind of drill assume
through the same kind of drill assume
through the same kind of drill assume there’s another cadet that may or may
there’s another cadet that may or may
there’s another cadet that may or may not do FC DT if we don’t conduct FC DT
not do FC DT if we don’t conduct FC DT
not do FC DT if we don’t conduct FC DT there’s a little bit of payoff with that
there’s a little bit of payoff with that
there’s a little bit of payoff with that we get to sleep in we’re not a tool but
we get to sleep in we’re not a tool but
we get to sleep in we’re not a tool but if you do decide to drive C DT your
if you do decide to drive C DT your
if you do decide to drive C DT your payoff depends on what player B does so
payoff depends on what player B does so
payoff depends on what player B does so if everyone does FC T that’s great we’re
if everyone does FC T that’s great we’re
if everyone does FC T that’s great we’re kind of supporting each other but if
kind of supporting each other but if
kind of supporting each other but if player B doesn’t do FC DT you’re even
player B doesn’t do FC DT you’re even
player B doesn’t do FC DT you’re even more of a tool and you lost sleep that
more of a tool and you lost sleep that
more of a tool and you lost sleep that player B to not lose and so we have a
player B to not lose and so we have a
player B to not lose and so we have a similar 2×2 payoff matrix and we see the
similar 2×2 payoff matrix and we see the
similar 2×2 payoff matrix and we see the same payoff structure and we can assign
same payoff structure and we can assign
same payoff structure and we can assign the same payoff structure to conducting
the same payoff structure to conducting
the same payoff structure to conducting morning room inspections really similar
morning room inspections really similar
morning room inspections really similar and so last year and this year I
and so last year and this year I
and so last year and this year I conducted a survey and asked you how
conducted a survey and asked you how
conducted a survey and asked you how your team leaders were doing and I asked
your team leaders were doing and I asked
your team leaders were doing and I asked you as team leaders how you were doing
you as team leaders how you were doing
you as team leaders how you were doing and so last year I pulled the class of
and so last year I pulled the class of
and so last year I pulled the class of 2017 and asked them how many days it had
2017 and asked them how many days it had
2017 and asked them how many days it had been since they conducted FCT and
been since they conducted FCT and
been since they conducted FCT and inspected their plebes room for AMI and
inspected their plebes room for AMI and
inspected their plebes room for AMI and you see the numbers there so some mean
you see the numbers there so some mean
you see the numbers there so some mean and median values then this year I
and median values then this year I
and median values then this year I conducted the same survey for the class
conducted the same survey for the class
conducted the same survey for the class of 2018 some of you up there and took
of 2018 some of you up there and took
of 2018 some of you up there and took the survey and the same thing for the
the survey and the same thing for the
the survey and the same thing for the class of 2019 and so I think cadets are
class of 2019 and so I think cadets are
class of 2019 and so I think cadets are playing this game every day so we see
playing this game every day so we see
playing this game every day so we see the average number
the average number
the average number it looks like cadets are conducting fcd
it looks like cadets are conducting fcd
it looks like cadets are conducting fcd t an inspector is about once a week I
t an inspector is about once a week I
t an inspector is about once a week I think you’re supposed to do it more so
think you’re supposed to do it more so
think you’re supposed to do it more so this is you all sliding down to that
this is you all sliding down to that
this is you all sliding down to that bottom right-hand corner of that payoff
bottom right-hand corner of that payoff
bottom right-hand corner of that payoff matrix and so we’ve looked at some two
matrix and so we’ve looked at some two
matrix and so we’ve looked at some two by two games two player games simple 2×2
by two games two player games simple 2×2
by two games two player games simple 2×2 matrix but in reality there’s forty four
matrix but in reality there’s forty four
matrix but in reality there’s forty four hundred of you and you’re all playing
hundred of you and you’re all playing
hundred of you and you’re all playing this game on a daily basis and so this
this game on a daily basis and so this
this game on a daily basis and so this is called an n person assurance game
is called an n person assurance game
is called an n person assurance game where n is the number of people 4400 and
where n is the number of people 4400 and
where n is the number of people 4400 and we see this game when it comes to treaty
we see this game when it comes to treaty
we see this game when it comes to treaty compliance nuclear weapons FC DT and
compliance nuclear weapons FC DT and
compliance nuclear weapons FC DT and room inspections and so instead of
room inspections and so instead of
room inspections and so instead of getting a simple 2×2 matrix we can
getting a simple 2×2 matrix we can
getting a simple 2×2 matrix we can actually graph a curve and so we graph
actually graph a curve and so we graph
actually graph a curve and so we graph the utility of participating versus the
the utility of participating versus the
the utility of participating versus the percentage participating so if most
percentage participating so if most
percentage participating so if most people are participating that’s good we
people are participating that’s good we
people are participating that’s good we get more utility derived from doing that
get more utility derived from doing that
get more utility derived from doing that thing and we get the opposite curve if
thing and we get the opposite curve if
thing and we get the opposite curve if you’re not participating so we can
you’re not participating so we can
you’re not participating so we can imagine a situation where we’re over on
imagine a situation where we’re over on
imagine a situation where we’re over on the left side of this curve not many
the left side of this curve not many
the left side of this curve not many people are doing the thing that we want
people are doing the thing that we want
people are doing the thing that we want to do it’s really hard to get those
to do it’s really hard to get those
to do it’s really hard to get those first movers to buy in right if we find
first movers to buy in right if we find
first movers to buy in right if we find ourselves on this side of the curve
ourselves on this side of the curve
ourselves on this side of the curve that’s really great the utility of
that’s really great the utility of
that’s really great the utility of participating is very high and so we’re
participating is very high and so we’re
participating is very high and so we’re all kind of keeping the same normative
all kind of keeping the same normative
all kind of keeping the same normative behavior that were
behavior that were
behavior that were and so in the middle we see this natural
and so in the middle we see this natural
and so in the middle we see this natural tipping point where that cost benefit
tipping point where that cost benefit
tipping point where that cost benefit analysis flips and it gets easy to get
analysis flips and it gets easy to get
analysis flips and it gets easy to get rapid buy-in into whatever you want to
rapid buy-in into whatever you want to
rapid buy-in into whatever you want to do and so this is my challenge to you as
do and so this is my challenge to you as
do and so this is my challenge to you as leaders in this room is to change the
leaders in this room is to change the
leaders in this room is to change the game first you want to build an
game first you want to build an
game first you want to build an organizational culture center around
organizational culture center around
organizational culture center around trusts because if your player a and you
trusts because if your player a and you
trusts because if your player a and you trust that player B he’s gonna do what
trust that player B he’s gonna do what
trust that player B he’s gonna do what he’s supposed to do or he’s what she is
he’s supposed to do or he’s what she is
he’s supposed to do or he’s what she is supposed to do you’re more willing and
supposed to do you’re more willing and
supposed to do you’re more willing and able to do that thing B build incentive
able to do that thing B build incentive
able to do that thing B build incentive to participate and so change the
to participate and so change the
to participate and so change the cost-benefit analysis of each individual
cost-benefit analysis of each individual
cost-benefit analysis of each individual actor also create time in your
actor also create time in your
actor also create time in your organizational schedule to a liar
organizational schedule to a liar
organizational schedule to a liar subordinates to Excel so if we do this
subordinates to Excel so if we do this
subordinates to Excel so if we do this spending that time becomes less costly
spending that time becomes less costly
spending that time becomes less costly to the individual and if we provide that
to the individual and if we provide that
to the individual and if we provide that structural change that can provide some
structural change that can provide some
structural change that can provide some accelerated cultural change so this is
accelerated cultural change so this is
accelerated cultural change so this is one proposal so on the left you see your
one proposal so on the left you see your
one proposal so on the left you see your cadet schedule it’s packed if we shorten
cadet schedule it’s packed if we shorten
cadet schedule it’s packed if we shorten every class to 50 minutes from 55 and if
every class to 50 minutes from 55 and if
every class to 50 minutes from 55 and if we move lunch back 10 minutes we can
we move lunch back 10 minutes we can
we move lunch back 10 minutes we can create 25 minutes in the morning where
create 25 minutes in the morning where
create 25 minutes in the morning where you can do F CDT the way you’re supposed
you can do F CDT the way you’re supposed
you can do F CDT the way you’re supposed to do it you can inspect rooms the chain
to do it you can inspect rooms the chain
to do it you can inspect rooms the chain of command can use that as they see fit
of command can use that as they see fit
of command can use that as they see fit just one idea for structural change that
just one idea for structural change that
just one idea for structural change that can accelerate cultural change I just
can accelerate cultural change I just
can accelerate cultural change I just remember that as leaders we allocate
remember that as leaders we allocate
remember that as leaders we allocate time and we set the priorities for our
time and we set the priorities for our
time and we set the priorities for our subordinates so really what we want to
subordinates so really what we want to
subordinates so really what we want to do is we’ve established some standards
do is we’ve established some standards
do is we’ve established some standards of behavior we want to bring the
of behavior we want to bring the
of behavior we want to bring the normative behavior in line with those so
normative behavior in line with those so
normative behavior in line with those so we want to lower the tipping point let’s
we want to lower the tipping point let’s
we want to lower the tipping point let’s get people to buy in
so for the cadets in the audience so one
so for the cadets in the audience so one of my favorite quotes from one of my
of my favorite quotes from one of my
of my favorite quotes from one of my favorite shows and my message to you is
favorite shows and my message to you is
favorite shows and my message to you is that you are in the good old days you
that you are in the good old days you
that you are in the good old days you heard mr. McClure speak all those things
heard mr. McClure speak all those things
heard mr. McClure speak all those things that he’s he was talking about you’re
that he’s he was talking about you’re
that he’s he was talking about you’re experiencing now don’t wait to do this
experiencing now don’t wait to do this
experiencing now don’t wait to do this stuff be the leader that we know you can
stuff be the leader that we know you can
stuff be the leader that we know you can be so start changing the game for
be so start changing the game for
be so start changing the game for yourselves thank you
so I would like to thank Colonel Graham
so I would like to thank Colonel Graham and Colonel print together reowww who’ve
and Colonel print together reowww who’ve
and Colonel print together reowww who’ve done a great job adjusting to things on
done a great job adjusting to things on
done a great job adjusting to things on the fly
the fly
the fly Colonel sheets for putting me in charge
Colonel sheets for putting me in charge
Colonel sheets for putting me in charge of the advanced physics sections which
of the advanced physics sections which
of the advanced physics sections which allowed me to do things like take
allowed me to do things like take
allowed me to do things like take surveys and talk about leadership in
surveys and talk about leadership in
surveys and talk about leadership in class and then Zack Cohen Zack came to
class and then Zack Cohen Zack came to
class and then Zack Cohen Zack came to me in September of last year and he said
me in September of last year and he said
me in September of last year and he said his dream was to do a TED talk and so I
his dream was to do a TED talk and so I
his dream was to do a TED talk and so I said okay well we’ll just change lab
said okay well we’ll just change lab
said okay well we’ll just change lab eight of physics to 55 to be a TED talk
eight of physics to 55 to be a TED talk
eight of physics to 55 to be a TED talk and so that spurred on this idea where I
and so that spurred on this idea where I
and so that spurred on this idea where I think of Rio and Zack and Jack Hadley
think of Rio and Zack and Jack Hadley
think of Rio and Zack and Jack Hadley and some others did this thing called
and some others did this thing called
and some others did this thing called good idea Friday and there’s a good idea
good idea Friday and there’s a good idea
good idea Friday and there’s a good idea Friday’s turned into this TEDx so you’ll
Friday’s turned into this TEDx so you’ll
Friday’s turned into this TEDx so you’ll hear Zack in a few minutes so
hear Zack in a few minutes so
hear Zack in a few minutes so congratulations to you
congratulations to you
congratulations to you [Applause]
”
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