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Waze for Humans: Predicting Health, Preventing Disease | Dr. Alicia Jackson | TEDxPaloAlto


five years ago when I joined DARPA we

five years ago when I joined DARPA we were faced with the following problem

were faced with the following problem

were faced with the following problem the military sends millions of its

the military sends millions of its

the military sends millions of its members across the globe and in most of

members across the globe and in most of

members across the globe and in most of those locations there is no

those locations there is no

those locations there is no infrastructure and there is no medical

infrastructure and there is no medical

infrastructure and there is no medical infrastructure so when this soldier

infrastructure so when this soldier

infrastructure so when this soldier falls ill we can’t just simply send him

falls ill we can’t just simply send him

falls ill we can’t just simply send him to the urgent care clinic or the CVS and

to the urgent care clinic or the CVS and

to the urgent care clinic or the CVS and there’s often not even anyone trained to

there’s often not even anyone trained to

there’s often not even anyone trained to take a blood sample and so we were faced

take a blood sample and so we were faced

take a blood sample and so we were faced with the challenge of how do we diagnose

with the challenge of how do we diagnose

with the challenge of how do we diagnose this soldier in a way that’s accurate

this soldier in a way that’s accurate

this soldier in a way that’s accurate and robust no matter where in the world

and robust no matter where in the world

and robust no matter where in the world he or she may be and so we set about

he or she may be and so we set about

he or she may be and so we set about investing in in building two sets of

investing in in building two sets of

investing in in building two sets of technologies the first how do we enable

technologies the first how do we enable

technologies the first how do we enable him to take his own blood sample the

him to take his own blood sample the

him to take his own blood sample the second how do we ship that sample back

second how do we ship that sample back

second how do we ship that sample back to a clinical laboratory anywhere in the

to a clinical laboratory anywhere in the

to a clinical laboratory anywhere in the world without having to worry about

world without having to worry about

world without having to worry about stabilizing it on a block of ice after

stabilizing it on a block of ice after

stabilizing it on a block of ice after about two or three years these

about two or three years these

about two or three years these technologies began to pay off and what

technologies began to pay off and what

technologies began to pay off and what we realized is that we had something

we realized is that we had something

we realized is that we had something much larger than just the military

much larger than just the military

much larger than just the military application but we had something that

application but we had something that

application but we had something that could transform our healthcare system

could transform our healthcare system

could transform our healthcare system and specifically enable us to begin to

and specifically enable us to begin to

and specifically enable us to begin to personalize and create predictive

personalize and create predictive

personalize and create predictive medicine now most of us are familiar

medicine now most of us are familiar

medicine now most of us are familiar with personalized medicine by way of

with personalized medicine by way of

with personalized medicine by way of genomic sequencing and the goal here is

genomic sequencing and the goal here is

genomic sequencing and the goal here is that all of us sequence our genomes and

that all of us sequence our genomes and

that all of us sequence our genomes and we can to compare the various

we can to compare the various

we can to compare the various differences between each one of us and

differences between each one of us and

differences between each one of us and understand how those differences might

understand how those differences might

understand how those differences might lead to and create different disease

lead to and create different disease

lead to and create different disease states the challenge with genomics is

states the challenge with genomics is

states the challenge with genomics is that is relatively static it tells us

that is relatively static it tells us

that is relatively static it tells us fate but it doesn’t necessarily tell us

fate but it doesn’t necessarily tell us

fate but it doesn’t necessarily tell us state and what we care about is not just

state and what we care about is not just

state and what we care about is not just do I have a propensity for having a

do I have a propensity for having a

do I have a propensity for having a disease but when am i coming down with

disease but when am i coming down with

disease but when am i coming down with that disease and if I am coming down

that disease and if I am coming down

that disease and if I am coming down with that disease how do I know if my

with that disease how do I know if my

with that disease how do I know if my treatment is working and that

treatment is working and that

treatment is working and that information is not carried by the static

information is not carried by the static

information is not carried by the static information of the genome but it’s

information of the genome but it’s

information of the genome but it’s carried by the expression of the genome

carried by the expression of the genome

carried by the expression of the genome in terms of the dynamic are

in terms of the dynamic are

in terms of the dynamic are and proteins that are being expressed

and proteins that are being expressed

and proteins that are being expressed and are essentially the traffic patterns

and are essentially the traffic patterns

and are essentially the traffic patterns of our bodies what we wanted to be able

of our bodies what we wanted to be able

of our bodies what we wanted to be able to build was ways for the human body now

to build was ways for the human body now

to build was ways for the human body now you may say to me Alicia we already do

you may say to me Alicia we already do

you may say to me Alicia we already do this when I go into my doctor he takes a

this when I go into my doctor he takes a

this when I go into my doctor he takes a blood test and I and I look at my

blood test and I and I look at my

blood test and I and I look at my biomarker levels and this tells me if

biomarker levels and this tells me if

biomarker levels and this tells me if I’m healthy or not

I’m healthy or not

I’m healthy or not but in reality what we’re doing is that

but in reality what we’re doing is that

but in reality what we’re doing is that we’re taking dynamic systems we’re

we’re taking dynamic systems we’re

we’re taking dynamic systems we’re taking things that change regularly over

taking things that change regularly over

taking things that change regularly over time in response to our own state of

time in response to our own state of

time in response to our own state of health in our environment and we’re just

health in our environment and we’re just

health in our environment and we’re just taking these single snapshots in time

taking these single snapshots in time

taking these single snapshots in time first one were young during our age

first one were young during our age

first one were young during our age specific checkups and then only usually

specific checkups and then only usually

specific checkups and then only usually in periods of illness when we don’t feel

in periods of illness when we don’t feel

in periods of illness when we don’t feel well and we’re in the doctors and then

well and we’re in the doctors and then

well and we’re in the doctors and then what we do is we don’t compare them to

what we do is we don’t compare them to

what we do is we don’t compare them to our own unique healthy levels we compare

our own unique healthy levels we compare

our own unique healthy levels we compare them to a population average which is

them to a population average which is

them to a population average which is typically a group of 50 year old Ben in

typically a group of 50 year old Ben in

typically a group of 50 year old Ben in Denver

what would be much more powerful is if

what would be much more powerful is if we could imagine tracking ourselves

we could imagine tracking ourselves

we could imagine tracking ourselves consistently over time and frequently in

consistently over time and frequently in

consistently over time and frequently in creating our own kind of health

creating our own kind of health

creating our own kind of health fingerprint over time and you can

fingerprint over time and you can

fingerprint over time and you can imagine that if we could track this over

imagine that if we could track this over

imagine that if we could track this over millions of individuals we could begin

millions of individuals we could begin

millions of individuals we could begin to build up a set of knowledge that when

to build up a set of knowledge that when

to build up a set of knowledge that when able us to not only understand when we

able us to not only understand when we

able us to not only understand when we are sick and what those biomarker

are sick and what those biomarker

are sick and what those biomarker patterns look like but actually begin to

patterns look like but actually begin to

patterns look like but actually begin to predict the onset of disease so let me

predict the onset of disease so let me

predict the onset of disease so let me make this very specific with a

make this very specific with a

make this very specific with a real-world example let’s start with

real-world example let’s start with

real-world example let’s start with ovarian cancer in cancer antigen 125

ovarian cancer in cancer antigen 125

ovarian cancer in cancer antigen 125 cancer antigen 125 is known as a

cancer antigen 125 is known as a

cancer antigen 125 is known as a biomarker that enables us to actually

biomarker that enables us to actually

biomarker that enables us to actually diagnose ovarian cancer now the

diagnose ovarian cancer now the

diagnose ovarian cancer now the challenge with this test is that it’s

challenge with this test is that it’s

challenge with this test is that it’s used as a threshold test so if I’m below

used as a threshold test so if I’m below

used as a threshold test so if I’m below a certain limit I’m considered to be

a certain limit I’m considered to be

a certain limit I’m considered to be healthy and cancer-free and if I’m above

healthy and cancer-free and if I’m above

healthy and cancer-free and if I’m above that limit I’m considered to have cancer

that limit I’m considered to have cancer

that limit I’m considered to have cancer as most clinicians will tell you often

as most clinicians will tell you often

as most clinicians will tell you often by the time you’re above the limit it’s

by the time you’re above the limit it’s

by the time you’re above the limit it’s too late you have late stage ovarian

too late you have late stage ovarian

too late you have late stage ovarian cancer and it is very difficult to cure

cancer and it is very difficult to cure

cancer and it is very difficult to cure the other major challenge is that most

the other major challenge is that most

the other major challenge is that most early stage ovarian cancer patients have

early stage ovarian cancer patients have

early stage ovarian cancer patients have a level that’s below that threshold and

a level that’s below that threshold and

a level that’s below that threshold and so they won’t be caught by the system

so they won’t be caught by the system

so they won’t be caught by the system the result is that most cases of ovarian

the result is that most cases of ovarian

the result is that most cases of ovarian cancer I diagnosed at a very late stage

cancer I diagnosed at a very late stage

cancer I diagnosed at a very late stage so what’s going on here what’s going on

so what’s going on here what’s going on

so what’s going on here what’s going on here is that we’re assuming that every

here is that we’re assuming that every

here is that we’re assuming that every single individual who comes in for a

single individual who comes in for a

single individual who comes in for a ca-125 measurement is average and

ca-125 measurement is average and

ca-125 measurement is average and clearly we’re not each one of us has a

clearly we’re not each one of us has a

clearly we’re not each one of us has a different baseline level of ca-125 and a

different baseline level of ca-125 and a

different baseline level of ca-125 and a woman’s value of ca-125 can vary up to

woman’s value of ca-125 can vary up to

woman’s value of ca-125 can vary up to 40% over the course of a month and so

40% over the course of a month and so

40% over the course of a month and so what we’d actually like to do is be able

what we’d actually like to do is be able

what we’d actually like to do is be able to track your levels over time and

to track your levels over time and

to track your levels over time and understand what’s normal for you and how

understand what’s normal for you and how

understand what’s normal for you and how that varies over time and when you’re

that varies over time and when you’re

that varies over time and when you’re deviating from that now a very powerful

deviating from that now a very powerful

deviating from that now a very powerful study was released just a little over a

study was released just a little over a

study was released just a little over a year ago by a group of researchers in

year ago by a group of researchers in

year ago by a group of researchers in the UK and at Harvard Medical School and

the UK and at Harvard Medical School and

the UK and at Harvard Medical School and what they did is they measured 50,000

what they did is they measured 50,000

what they did is they measured 50,000 women’s levels of ca-125 as infrequently

women’s levels of ca-125 as infrequently

women’s levels of ca-125 as infrequently as every year and as frequently as every

as every year and as frequently as every

as every year and as frequently as every 12 weeks now on this chart every great

12 weeks now on this chart every great

12 weeks now on this chart every great dot that you see up there is a measure

dot that you see up there is a measure

dot that you see up there is a measure of ca-125 over the period of a decade

of ca-125 over the period of a decade

of ca-125 over the period of a decade and what these researchers found was

and what these researchers found was

and what these researchers found was that regardless of whether you were

that regardless of whether you were

that regardless of whether you were above or below the threshold if they saw

above or below the threshold if they saw

above or below the threshold if they saw a doubling of your cancer antigen 125

a doubling of your cancer antigen 125

a doubling of your cancer antigen 125 over the period of six months they could

over the period of six months they could

over the period of six months they could double the effectiveness of the

double the effectiveness of the

double the effectiveness of the biomarker and they could increase their

biomarker and they could increase their

biomarker and they could increase their rate of catching ovarian cancer up to

rate of catching ovarian cancer up to

rate of catching ovarian cancer up to 86% this was astounding to me that just

86% this was astounding to me that just

86% this was astounding to me that just by changing the way that we were

by changing the way that we were

by changing the way that we were measuring a biomarker we could double

measuring a biomarker we could double

measuring a biomarker we could double its effectiveness and the first question

its effectiveness and the first question

its effectiveness and the first question I asked myself was if this is true for

I asked myself was if this is true for

I asked myself was if this is true for ovarian cancer what else might this be

ovarian cancer what else might this be

ovarian cancer what else might this be true for and it turns out for many of

true for and it turns out for many of

true for and it turns out for many of the major chronic diseases that we are

the major chronic diseases that we are

the major chronic diseases that we are facing whether it’s diabetes

facing whether it’s diabetes

facing whether it’s diabetes neurodegenerative disease cardiovascular

neurodegenerative disease cardiovascular

neurodegenerative disease cardiovascular disease in a variety of other cancers

disease in a variety of other cancers

disease in a variety of other cancers there is a whole set of biomarkers that

there is a whole set of biomarkers that

there is a whole set of biomarkers that today are not considered to be very good

today are not considered to be very good

today are not considered to be very good that we might have thrown out that are

that we might have thrown out that are

that we might have thrown out that are not considered to be predictive that if

not considered to be predictive that if

not considered to be predictive that if we change the way that we measure them

we change the way that we measure them

we change the way that we measure them if we just simply measure them more for

if we just simply measure them more for

if we just simply measure them more for and compare them against our own natural

and compare them against our own natural

and compare them against our own natural levels can actually start to be

levels can actually start to be

levels can actually start to be predictive of disease onset even more

predictive of disease onset even more

predictive of disease onset even more before the symptoms begin to manifest so

before the symptoms begin to manifest so

before the symptoms begin to manifest so we can start to imagine this very near

we can start to imagine this very near

we can start to imagine this very near future where we are monitoring ourselves

future where we are monitoring ourselves

future where we are monitoring ourselves and our families and being able to get

and our families and being able to get

and our families and being able to get this quantitative picture of our state

this quantitative picture of our state

this quantitative picture of our state of health where we can begin to predict

of health where we can begin to predict

of health where we can begin to predict when illness is occurring and when we

when illness is occurring and when we

when illness is occurring and when we can be actually begin to understand if a

can be actually begin to understand if a

can be actually begin to understand if a treatment is effective or not so why

treatment is effective or not so why

treatment is effective or not so why doesn’t our health care system look like

doesn’t our health care system look like

doesn’t our health care system look like this today well unlike when you go into

this today well unlike when you go into

this today well unlike when you go into your doctor and they simply do the

your doctor and they simply do the

your doctor and they simply do the tongue depressor or they listen to your

tongue depressor or they listen to your

tongue depressor or they listen to your heartbeat or they have you cough with

heartbeat or they have you cough with

heartbeat or they have you cough with these very simple tools getting your

these very simple tools getting your

these very simple tools getting your blood sample taken for a diagnostic test

blood sample taken for a diagnostic test

blood sample taken for a diagnostic test is something that is incredibly

is something that is incredibly

is something that is incredibly inconvenient you have to schedule

inconvenient you have to schedule

inconvenient you have to schedule another appointment for it it’s costly

another appointment for it it’s costly

another appointment for it it’s costly for you and for the medical system and

for you and for the medical system and

for you and for the medical system and it occurs outside your course of care

it occurs outside your course of care

it occurs outside your course of care what you want is a tool that’s as simple

what you want is a tool that’s as simple

what you want is a tool that’s as simple to implement as a tongue depressor or

to implement as a tongue depressor or

to implement as a tongue depressor or stethoscope you want something that

stethoscope you want something that

stethoscope you want something that doesn’t require you to have a terrible

doesn’t require you to have a terrible

doesn’t require you to have a terrible user experience by going to the blood

user experience by going to the blood

user experience by going to the blood draw center out of your way it is

draw center out of your way it is

draw center out of your way it is phenomenal to me that one of the most

phenomenal to me that one of the most

phenomenal to me that one of the most important things in our lives our health

important things in our lives our health

important things in our lives our health has this bad of a user interface so the

has this bad of a user interface so the

has this bad of a user interface so the key insight that we had at DARPA and

key insight that we had at DARPA and

key insight that we had at DARPA and that led me to leave DARPA and to launch

that led me to leave DARPA and to launch

that led me to leave DARPA and to launch this new company was that the exact same

this new company was that the exact same

this new company was that the exact same technology that we were developing that

technology that we were developing that

technology that we were developing that would enable us to take a blood sample

would enable us to take a blood sample

would enable us to take a blood sample from a soldier anywhere in the world was

from a soldier anywhere in the world was

from a soldier anywhere in the world was the same technology that we could use to

the same technology that we could use to

the same technology that we could use to collect a sample from any of us any time

collect a sample from any of us any time

collect a sample from any of us any time in our lives anywhere in our lives and

in our lives anywhere in our lives and

in our lives anywhere in our lives and it was that just key point and the

it was that just key point and the

it was that just key point and the ability of a simple change in technology

ability of a simple change in technology

ability of a simple change in technology and the way that we were changing our

and the way that we were changing our

and the way that we were changing our measurement that could transform our

measurement that could transform our

measurement that could transform our healthcare system and transform our

healthcare system and transform our

healthcare system and transform our lives that caused me to leave DARPA

lives that caused me to leave DARPA

lives that caused me to leave DARPA launched a company

launched a company

launched a company and hopefully transform our healthcare

and hopefully transform our healthcare

and hopefully transform our healthcare system thank you

system thank you

system thank you [Applause]

”

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