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Tsunamis and Lifelines: Workforce Dev. in a Future Shocked World | Sue Ellspermann | TEDxEvansville


[Applause]

[Applause] so what is a lifeline it’s that rope you

so what is a lifeline it’s that rope you

so what is a lifeline it’s that rope you throw out to somebody if they’re

throw out to somebody if they’re

throw out to somebody if they’re drowning for some of us remember the

drowning for some of us remember the

drowning for some of us remember the show Who Wants to Be a Millionaire the

show Who Wants to Be a Millionaire the

show Who Wants to Be a Millionaire the lifeline was a person you could call

lifeline was a person you could call

lifeline was a person you could call they answer the question you didn’t know

they answer the question you didn’t know

they answer the question you didn’t know the answer to it’s a way of helping us

the answer to it’s a way of helping us

the answer to it’s a way of helping us to bring people back help them move

to bring people back help them move

to bring people back help them move forward now let’s switch gears two

forward now let’s switch gears two

forward now let’s switch gears two lifetimes so back in the 1970s Alvin

lifetimes so back in the 1970s Alvin

lifetimes so back in the 1970s Alvin Toffler wrote the book future shock it

Toffler wrote the book future shock it

Toffler wrote the book future shock it had some pretty interesting ideas in it

had some pretty interesting ideas in it

had some pretty interesting ideas in it right it suggested in the future people

right it suggested in the future people

right it suggested in the future people might have personal spaceships they

might have personal spaceships they

might have personal spaceships they might have throwaway clothes they so all

might have throwaway clothes they so all

might have throwaway clothes they so all kinds of ideas of what the future might

kinds of ideas of what the future might

kinds of ideas of what the future might look like now most of those didn’t hit

look like now most of those didn’t hit

look like now most of those didn’t hit the nail on the head one of the very

the nail on the head one of the very

the nail on the head one of the very interesting ones is when you took a new

interesting ones is when you took a new

interesting ones is when you took a new job in another city instead of moving

job in another city instead of moving

job in another city instead of moving your family you’d get a new family right

your family you’d get a new family right

your family you’d get a new family right kind of a bizarre thing to think about

kind of a bizarre thing to think about

kind of a bizarre thing to think about some kind to do that but so those didn’t

some kind to do that but so those didn’t

some kind to do that but so those didn’t hit the nail on the head but could we

hit the nail on the head but could we

hit the nail on the head but could we have imagined in the 1970s the internet

have imagined in the 1970s the internet

have imagined in the 1970s the internet nanotechnology

nanotechnology

nanotechnology social media the way we know it today so

social media the way we know it today so

social media the way we know it today so many things that really have happened

many things that really have happened

many things that really have happened and his point was this notion of

and his point was this notion of

and his point was this notion of accelerating change and how that was

accelerating change and how that was

accelerating change and how that was going to change everything around us but

going to change everything around us but

going to change everything around us but most particularly this thing we call the

most particularly this thing we call the

most particularly this thing we call the world of work right how would that

world of work right how would that

world of work right how would that change jobs well I’m an industrial

change jobs well I’m an industrial

change jobs well I’m an industrial engineer and in fact we’re trained to

engineer and in fact we’re trained to

engineer and in fact we’re trained to study work and in 1980 I started that by

study work and in 1980 I started that by

study work and in 1980 I started that by studying assembly line workers at

studying assembly line workers at

studying assembly line workers at General Motors in Michigan and it was

General Motors in Michigan and it was

General Motors in Michigan and it was very common to have an assembly line

very common to have an assembly line

very common to have an assembly line worker that what they did lots of women

worker that what they did lots of women

worker that what they did lots of women like you see in this picture they might

like you see in this picture they might

like you see in this picture they might drive eight screws or eight bulbs in the

drive eight screws or eight bulbs in the

drive eight screws or eight bulbs in the back of an instrument panel all day long

back of an instrument panel all day long

back of an instrument panel all day long five days a week eight hours a day for

five days a week eight hours a day for

five days a week eight hours a day for three or four years until there might be

three or four years until there might be

three or four years until there might be maybe some kind of ergonomic improvement

maybe some kind of ergonomic improvement

maybe some kind of ergonomic improvement or until you got to the next month

or until you got to the next month

or until you got to the next month and that’s what they did and we had

and that’s what they did and we had

and that’s what they did and we had millions of manufacturing workers that

millions of manufacturing workers that

millions of manufacturing workers that did that kind of work but then some

did that kind of work but then some

did that kind of work but then some things started to happen we had this

things started to happen we had this

things started to happen we had this place called Japan were a couple

place called Japan were a couple

place called Japan were a couple concepts American concepts were adopted

concepts American concepts were adopted

concepts American concepts were adopted we had Deming with statistical process

we had Deming with statistical process

we had Deming with statistical process controls making things better we had

controls making things better we had

controls making things better we had Phil Crosby I should say so yes

Phil Crosby I should say so yes

Phil Crosby I should say so yes statistical process controls and Phil

statistical process controls and Phil

statistical process controls and Phil Crosby with continuous improvement and

Crosby with continuous improvement and

Crosby with continuous improvement and all of a sudden the Japanese were making

all of a sudden the Japanese were making

all of a sudden the Japanese were making high-quality cars at an affordable rate

high-quality cars at an affordable rate

high-quality cars at an affordable rate and Detroit was no longer the epicenter

and Detroit was no longer the epicenter

and Detroit was no longer the epicenter of manufacturing particularly in the

of manufacturing particularly in the

of manufacturing particularly in the automotive industry at the same time

automotive industry at the same time

automotive industry at the same time looking for cost savings we had

looking for cost savings we had

looking for cost savings we had manufacturers going to other places so

manufacturers going to other places so

manufacturers going to other places so they looked to countries like Mexico

they looked to countries like Mexico

they looked to countries like Mexico China Vietnam where they could get labor

China Vietnam where they could get labor

China Vietnam where they could get labor at about a dollar an hour and so things

at about a dollar an hour and so things

at about a dollar an hour and so things started changing in that world and in

started changing in that world and in

started changing in that world and in fact the peak of manufacturing

fact the peak of manufacturing

fact the peak of manufacturing employment was 1977 the least we saw in

employment was 1977 the least we saw in

employment was 1977 the least we saw in manufacturing was 9% right after the

manufacturing was 9% right after the

manufacturing was 9% right after the Great Recession and so things were

Great Recession and so things were

Great Recession and so things were changing now let’s add to that another

changing now let’s add to that another

changing now let’s add to that another concept we saw computer world before us

concept we saw computer world before us

concept we saw computer world before us so we started in the 70 some of us

so we started in the 70 some of us

so we started in the 70 some of us learned Fortran and punch cards we

learned Fortran and punch cards we

learned Fortran and punch cards we remember all that I remember my first

remember all that I remember my first

remember all that I remember my first portable computer in 1980s that was as

portable computer in 1980s that was as

portable computer in 1980s that was as big as my sewing machine right you could

big as my sewing machine right you could

big as my sewing machine right you could carry it if you were strong enough today

carry it if you were strong enough today

carry it if you were strong enough today our smartphones do so much more than any

our smartphones do so much more than any

our smartphones do so much more than any of those computers and in fact this

of those computers and in fact this

of those computers and in fact this concept of Moore’s law was developed

concept of Moore’s law was developed

concept of Moore’s law was developed because we were moving technology so

because we were moving technology so

because we were moving technology so fast in fact it was based on the concept

fast in fact it was based on the concept

fast in fact it was based on the concept that the more transistors were being

that the more transistors were being

that the more transistors were being used in integrated circle circuits and

used in integrated circle circuits and

used in integrated circle circuits and we were doubling them every two years

we were doubling them every two years

we were doubling them every two years and technology our computing power was

and technology our computing power was

and technology our computing power was increasing at such rates and again

increasing at such rates and again

increasing at such rates and again driving that change and that affected

driving that change and that affected

driving that change and that affected jobs so some of us would think ok well

jobs so some of us would think ok well

jobs so some of us would think ok well at first we remember

at first we remember

at first we remember otice it came out and we could now do

otice it came out and we could now do

otice it came out and we could now do spreadsheets so maybe there were a few

spreadsheets so maybe there were a few

spreadsheets so maybe there were a few bookkeepers that work no longer having

bookkeepers that work no longer having

bookkeepers that work no longer having those jobs and then we even remembers

those jobs and then we even remembers

those jobs and then we even remembers the secretarial pool that used to be out

the secretarial pool that used to be out

the secretarial pool that used to be out there right when WordPerfect came out we

there right when WordPerfect came out we

there right when WordPerfect came out we don’t we now have children who learned

don’t we now have children who learned

don’t we now have children who learned the QWERTY keyboard before they can read

the QWERTY keyboard before they can read

the QWERTY keyboard before they can read words and so things have changed so what

words and so things have changed so what

words and so things have changed so what jobs as you study work what jobs are

jobs as you study work what jobs are

jobs as you study work what jobs are really at risk and so think about I’ve

really at risk and so think about I’ve

really at risk and so think about I’ve talked about some of those low skill

talked about some of those low skill

talked about some of those low skill manufacturing but what about CDL truck

manufacturing but what about CDL truck

manufacturing but what about CDL truck drivers right we’ve got autonomous

drivers right we’ve got autonomous

drivers right we’ve got autonomous vehicles already being tested on the

vehicles already being tested on the

vehicles already being tested on the roads so in a very few years those will

roads so in a very few years those will

roads so in a very few years those will be at risk how about some of those

be at risk how about some of those

be at risk how about some of those postal workers how many it when’s the

postal workers how many it when’s the

postal workers how many it when’s the last time you put a snail mail piece of

last time you put a snail mail piece of

last time you put a snail mail piece of mail in your mailbox right I only get

mail in your mailbox right I only get

mail in your mailbox right I only get junk mail now what about in restaurants

junk mail now what about in restaurants

junk mail now what about in restaurants where we have both fast-food and sit

where we have both fast-food and sit

where we have both fast-food and sit down

down

down how many have used a kiosk to do your

how many have used a kiosk to do your

how many have used a kiosk to do your ordering and or pain in that situation

ordering and or pain in that situation

ordering and or pain in that situation or a realtor let’s think about

or a realtor let’s think about

or a realtor let’s think about zillow.com and Lending Tree and all

zillow.com and Lending Tree and all

zillow.com and Lending Tree and all those aids we have that look make it so

those aids we have that look make it so

those aids we have that look make it so much different so it’s fair to say there

much different so it’s fair to say there

much different so it’s fair to say there are a lot of jobs at risk and this

are a lot of jobs at risk and this

are a lot of jobs at risk and this really speaks to what I would call the

really speaks to what I would call the

really speaks to what I would call the displacement of workers right we’re

displacement of workers right we’re

displacement of workers right we’re going to displace Scot McCorkle the

going to displace Scot McCorkle the

going to displace Scot McCorkle the ex-ceo or exact target which is now

ex-ceo or exact target which is now

ex-ceo or exact target which is now Salesforce great tech firm in Indiana he

Salesforce great tech firm in Indiana he

Salesforce great tech firm in Indiana he spoke at the Indiana Chamber retreat the

spoke at the Indiana Chamber retreat the

spoke at the Indiana Chamber retreat the spring and he said his greatest concern

spring and he said his greatest concern

spring and he said his greatest concern is the number of workers that will be

is the number of workers that will be

is the number of workers that will be displaced and this goes right back to

displaced and this goes right back to

displaced and this goes right back to Alvin Toffler

Alvin Toffler

Alvin Toffler conversations and his book about this

conversations and his book about this

conversations and his book about this accelerating rate of change and the

accelerating rate of change and the

accelerating rate of change and the impact that that’s going to have and so

impact that that’s going to have and so

impact that that’s going to have and so what are we going to do about it as we

what are we going to do about it as we

what are we going to do about it as we have that it means higher education is

have that it means higher education is

have that it means higher education is ever ever more important and so in

ever ever more important and so in

ever ever more important and so in across the nation Lumina Foundation has

across the nation Lumina Foundation has

across the nation Lumina Foundation has set this big goal this big goal says

set this big goal this big goal says

set this big goal this big goal says that 60% of all of our workforce across

that 60% of all of our workforce across

that 60% of all of our workforce across America really needs to have a

America really needs to have a

America really needs to have a post-secondary degree or credential by

post-secondary degree or credential by

post-secondary degree or credential by 22

22

22 five well that sounds good where are we

five well that sounds good where are we

five well that sounds good where are we as a nation we’re in the mid 40s some

as a nation we’re in the mid 40s some

as a nation we’re in the mid 40s some countries are already there South Korea

countries are already there South Korea

countries are already there South Korea is seventy percent we have some states

is seventy percent we have some states

is seventy percent we have some states like Massachusetts that are there

like Massachusetts that are there

like Massachusetts that are there Indiana

Indiana

Indiana we’re not there were 41 percent and so

we’re not there were 41 percent and so

we’re not there were 41 percent and so over 30 states across the country have

over 30 states across the country have

over 30 states across the country have adopted this lumina goal and it will

adopted this lumina goal and it will

adopted this lumina goal and it will take everything we can do to get there

take everything we can do to get there

take everything we can do to get there so let me just talk about a few of the

so let me just talk about a few of the

so let me just talk about a few of the things we might want to do to get there

things we might want to do to get there

things we might want to do to get there of course we want higher education to

of course we want higher education to

of course we want higher education to continue adding and guess what for two

continue adding and guess what for two

continue adding and guess what for two and four-year institutions have done a

and four-year institutions have done a

and four-year institutions have done a great job of really taking in more

great job of really taking in more

great job of really taking in more students we have about 80 percent of

students we have about 80 percent of

students we have about 80 percent of high school students now going on to

high school students now going on to

high school students now going on to some form of higher education the sad

some form of higher education the sad

some form of higher education the sad fact is about half of them will finish

fact is about half of them will finish

fact is about half of them will finish some kind of degree or credential the

some kind of degree or credential the

some kind of degree or credential the other thing we can do is look at what

other thing we can do is look at what

other thing we can do is look at what kinds of work needs to be done and that

kinds of work needs to be done and that

kinds of work needs to be done and that means aligning to the workforce needs

means aligning to the workforce needs

means aligning to the workforce needs you know what Lumina found is it wasn’t

you know what Lumina found is it wasn’t

you know what Lumina found is it wasn’t just degrees it was certificates

just degrees it was certificates

just degrees it was certificates certifications and degrees I let me talk

certifications and degrees I let me talk

certifications and degrees I let me talk about that a certificate is a shorter

about that a certificate is a shorter

about that a certificate is a shorter term it may not take two years or four

term it may not take two years or four

term it may not take two years or four years but it has high value in what you

years but it has high value in what you

years but it has high value in what you do a licensed practical nurse is a

do a licensed practical nurse is a

do a licensed practical nurse is a one-year technical certificate a

one-year technical certificate a

one-year technical certificate a certification many of us know Microsoft

certification many of us know Microsoft

certification many of us know Microsoft those are great certifications Cisco

those are great certifications Cisco

those are great certifications Cisco certifications great certifications that

certifications great certifications that

certifications great certifications that can get you really good jobs and so what

can get you really good jobs and so what

can get you really good jobs and so what we’ve not done is helped our next

we’ve not done is helped our next

we’ve not done is helped our next generation understand what those high

generation understand what those high

generation understand what those high value are and that not everything is a

value are and that not everything is a

value are and that not everything is a traditional or your degree so I think we

traditional or your degree so I think we

traditional or your degree so I think we can work with that but here’s the part

can work with that but here’s the part

can work with that but here’s the part we really need to worry about it’s the

we really need to worry about it’s the

we really need to worry about it’s the fact that we have a lot of adults out

fact that we have a lot of adults out

fact that we have a lot of adults out there and those adults are going to be

there and those adults are going to be

there and those adults are going to be displaced and in fact 20% of those

displaced and in fact 20% of those

displaced and in fact 20% of those adults that are out there have started

adults that are out there have started

adults that are out there have started college at some point but they haven’t

college at some point but they haven’t

college at some point but they haven’t finished it they don’t have a degree or

finished it they don’t have a degree or

finished it they don’t have a degree or credential the show fart and yet we have

credential the show fart and yet we have

credential the show fart and yet we have great opportunity to try to bring them

great opportunity to try to bring them

great opportunity to try to bring them back and find ways to help them

back and find ways to help them

back and find ways to help them so let me talk about one thing we call

so let me talk about one thing we call

so let me talk about one thing we call prior learning assessment it is taking

prior learning assessment it is taking

prior learning assessment it is taking all those experiences an adult has and

all those experiences an adult has and

all those experiences an adult has and giving them credit where credit is due

giving them credit where credit is due

giving them credit where credit is due so many of them are subject matter

so many of them are subject matter

so many of them are subject matter experts and anything from accounting to

experts and anything from accounting to

experts and anything from accounting to finance to running a warehouse can we

finance to running a warehouse can we

finance to running a warehouse can we find a way to give them credit for those

find a way to give them credit for those

find a way to give them credit for those things and so their big movement out

things and so their big movement out

things and so their big movement out there and we make sure that we are

there and we make sure that we are

there and we make sure that we are accommodating for these adults as

accommodating for these adults as

accommodating for these adults as they’re coming out to come back into

they’re coming out to come back into

they’re coming out to come back into those high-value opportunities what I

those high-value opportunities what I

those high-value opportunities what I really want to talk to you about is some

really want to talk to you about is some

really want to talk to you about is some transformational ideas that we could do

transformational ideas that we could do

transformational ideas that we could do so how could it really look different

so how could it really look different

so how could it really look different than it looks today so let me give you a

than it looks today so let me give you a

than it looks today so let me give you a couple of ideas well what if that adult

couple of ideas well what if that adult

couple of ideas well what if that adult they’re gonna we’re all gonna pay into

they’re gonna we’re all gonna pay into

they’re gonna we’re all gonna pay into Social Security for a really long time

Social Security for a really long time

Social Security for a really long time what if we allowed adults to take that

what if we allowed adults to take that

what if we allowed adults to take that Social Security and invested in their

Social Security and invested in their

Social Security and invested in their career to be retrained to train up right

career to be retrained to train up right

career to be retrained to train up right because Alvin Toffler knew that one

because Alvin Toffler knew that one

because Alvin Toffler knew that one career was not gonna take you everywhere

career was not gonna take you everywhere

career was not gonna take you everywhere you need it to be for me my first degree

you need it to be for me my first degree

you need it to be for me my first degree got me to being an engineer my masters

got me to being an engineer my masters

got me to being an engineer my masters and PhD led me into academia and then I

and PhD led me into academia and then I

and PhD led me into academia and then I had a certificate that helped me learn

had a certificate that helped me learn

had a certificate that helped me learn how to do political things to be trained

how to do political things to be trained

how to do political things to be trained in that area of public service so how do

in that area of public service so how do

in that area of public service so how do we help adults have that way of making

we help adults have that way of making

we help adults have that way of making that transition so just imagine if you

that transition so just imagine if you

that transition so just imagine if you could take some of that 13 percent you

could take some of that 13 percent you

could take some of that 13 percent you pay the government and put that towards

pay the government and put that towards

pay the government and put that towards some higher education and make that

some higher education and make that

some higher education and make that investment in yourself for that next

investment in yourself for that next

investment in yourself for that next career but imagine if we ensured that

career but imagine if we ensured that

career but imagine if we ensured that all institutions had to accept credit

all institutions had to accept credit

all institutions had to accept credit from other places I’m talking about the

from other places I’m talking about the

from other places I’m talking about the Euro for a transfer so wherever you got

Euro for a transfer so wherever you got

Euro for a transfer so wherever you got that course you could take it anywhere

that course you could take it anywhere

that course you could take it anywhere else across the country to continue on

else across the country to continue on

else across the country to continue on so you weren’t losing credit now in

so you weren’t losing credit now in

so you weren’t losing credit now in Indiana we do a pretty good job we have

Indiana we do a pretty good job we have

Indiana we do a pretty good job we have about up to 100 courses and what we call

about up to 100 courses and what we call

about up to 100 courses and what we call the core transfer library that allows us

the core transfer library that allows us

the core transfer library that allows us to do that but we could do so much more

to do that but we could do so much more

to do that but we could do so much more with it

with it

with it and what if we really let adults able to

and what if we really let adults able to

and what if we really let adults able to write off all those costs and if we

write off all those costs and if we

write off all those costs and if we engaged our employers in helping to give

engaged our employers in helping to give

engaged our employers in helping to give them tax credits where they could really

them tax credits where they could really

them tax credits where they could really not only for the time that expense of

not only for the time that expense of

not only for the time that expense of that retraining but if they let you do

that retraining but if they let you do

that retraining but if they let you do the time off because guess what adults

the time off because guess what adults

the time off because guess what adults live really busy lives they have

live really busy lives they have

live really busy lives they have families they have commitments they have

families they have commitments they have

families they have commitments they have other things but could we really look at

other things but could we really look at

other things but could we really look at this very very differently but what we

this very very differently but what we

this very very differently but what we know is the future is gonna be very

know is the future is gonna be very

know is the future is gonna be very different out there we are in the midst

different out there we are in the midst

different out there we are in the midst of this displacement going on around us

of this displacement going on around us

of this displacement going on around us we’re seeing it and yet how do we

we’re seeing it and yet how do we

we’re seeing it and yet how do we prepare for it in higher education is

prepare for it in higher education is

prepare for it in higher education is going to need to be a really really big

going to need to be a really really big

going to need to be a really really big piece of it this notion of tsunami there

piece of it this notion of tsunami there

piece of it this notion of tsunami there is a tsunami coming in work force

is a tsunami coming in work force

is a tsunami coming in work force displacement across the careers I shared

displacement across the careers I shared

displacement across the careers I shared but many many more the question is will

but many many more the question is will

but many many more the question is will higher education will government’s will

higher education will government’s will

higher education will government’s will be employers well States and federal

be employers well States and federal

be employers well States and federal leaders step up and say how do we help

leaders step up and say how do we help

leaders step up and say how do we help be a part of this solution and will we

be a part of this solution and will we

be a part of this solution and will we be able to be the lifeline to the middle

be able to be the lifeline to the middle

be able to be the lifeline to the middle class thank you

class thank you

class thank you [Applause]

”

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