I am supposed to remind you to think and turn on your brain and pay attention to
turn on your brain and pay attention to
turn on your brain and pay attention to subtle cues like what I am wearing how I
subtle cues like what I am wearing how I
subtle cues like what I am wearing how I am speaking the fact that I have worn
am speaking the fact that I have worn
am speaking the fact that I have worn glasses the colors that I have chosen
glasses the colors that I have chosen
glasses the colors that I have chosen thank you to my wife for dressing me and
thank you to my wife for dressing me and
thank you to my wife for dressing me and then I will ask you how does it make you
then I will ask you how does it make you
then I will ask you how does it make you feel thank you and in fact the manner of
feel thank you and in fact the manner of
feel thank you and in fact the manner of speaking the entire delivery awkward how
speaking the entire delivery awkward how
speaking the entire delivery awkward how many by show of hands would say that
many by show of hands would say that
many by show of hands would say that this would meet the expectation for
this would meet the expectation for
this would meet the expectation for somebody speaking on this red dot lots
somebody speaking on this red dot lots
somebody speaking on this red dot lots of hands I want to introduce you to
of hands I want to introduce you to
of hands I want to introduce you to something that I call the think feel
something that I call the think feel
something that I call the think feel conundrum now again audience
conundrum now again audience
conundrum now again audience participation by show of hands how many
participation by show of hands how many
participation by show of hands how many people have ever had a time where they
people have ever had a time where they
people have ever had a time where they feel like their heart and their brain
feel like their heart and their brain
feel like their heart and their brain just couldn’t agree and I think that how
just couldn’t agree and I think that how
just couldn’t agree and I think that how many people can’t raise their hand
many people can’t raise their hand
many people can’t raise their hand alright so we know this happens the
alright so we know this happens the
alright so we know this happens the question is why before we get any
question is why before we get any
question is why before we get any further I want to clarify something
further I want to clarify something
further I want to clarify something we’re going to talk about feel today
we’re going to talk about feel today
we’re going to talk about feel today feel is a vague enough term that it’s
feel is a vague enough term that it’s
feel is a vague enough term that it’s important to identify because emotions
important to identify because emotions
important to identify because emotions are a form of feeling but I’m talking
are a form of feeling but I’m talking
are a form of feeling but I’m talking about feeling like that gut feeling when
about feeling like that gut feeling when
about feeling like that gut feeling when you say I just go with my gut because I
you say I just go with my gut because I
you say I just go with my gut because I don’t want you to get the impression
don’t want you to get the impression
don’t want you to get the impression that the emotions are somehow negative
that the emotions are somehow negative
that the emotions are somehow negative emotions are exceptionally valuable in
emotions are exceptionally valuable in
emotions are exceptionally valuable in how we process and interpret information
how we process and interpret information
how we process and interpret information and how we develop relationships with
and how we develop relationships with
and how we develop relationships with each other so do keep that in the back
each other so do keep that in the back
each other so do keep that in the back of your mind
of your mind
of your mind the vocabulary of the day when you see
the vocabulary of the day when you see
the vocabulary of the day when you see feel it means feeling with your gut
feel it means feeling with your gut
feel it means feeling with your gut going with your gut and there are plenty
going with your gut and there are plenty
going with your gut and there are plenty of times when our gut gets it wrong the
of times when our gut gets it wrong the
of times when our gut gets it wrong the question is why
question is why
question is why first understand our brains were you
first understand our brains were you
first understand our brains were you aware that sitting between your ears is
aware that sitting between your ears is
aware that sitting between your ears is a supercomputer if you measure the
a supercomputer if you measure the
a supercomputer if you measure the number of processes per second that the
number of processes per second that the
number of processes per second that the human brain is capable of managing it is
human brain is capable of managing it is
human brain is capable of managing it is that of the most sophisticated
that of the most sophisticated
that of the most sophisticated supercomputer ever built and the amazing
supercomputer ever built and the amazing
supercomputer ever built and the amazing piece of information is that that
piece of information is that that
piece of information is that that supercomputer will require a knop energy
supercomputer will require a knop energy
supercomputer will require a knop energy to power approximately a thousand
to power approximately a thousand
to power approximately a thousand households and your brain does it on
households and your brain does it on
households and your brain does it on about 20 watts the barn on superpower
about 20 watts the barn on superpower
about 20 watts the barn on superpower winner for processing per watt in the
winner for processing per watt in the
winner for processing per watt in the known universe capable of processing up
known universe capable of processing up
known universe capable of processing up to 10 quadrillion pieces of information
to 10 quadrillion pieces of information
to 10 quadrillion pieces of information per second and that is actually the low
per second and that is actually the low
per second and that is actually the low estimate and you know what that tells me
estimate and you know what that tells me
estimate and you know what that tells me means we’re capable of making mistakes
means we’re capable of making mistakes
means we’re capable of making mistakes really fast
really fast
really fast I know because I’m guilty of them
I know because I’m guilty of them
I know because I’m guilty of them understand how your brain operates with
understand how your brain operates with
understand how your brain operates with ten quadrillion processes per second
ten quadrillion processes per second
ten quadrillion processes per second it’s not possible off to be consciously
it’s not possible off to be consciously
it’s not possible off to be consciously aware of all of the data that we’re
aware of all of the data that we’re
aware of all of the data that we’re managing
managing
managing in fact our conscious mind only manages
in fact our conscious mind only manages
in fact our conscious mind only manages about five percent of what we’re doing
about five percent of what we’re doing
about five percent of what we’re doing the subconscious mind takes over for the
the subconscious mind takes over for the
the subconscious mind takes over for the other ninety five percent and we’re
other ninety five percent and we’re
other ninety five percent and we’re happy to have it do that in fact for
happy to have it do that in fact for
happy to have it do that in fact for everybody that just came here after
everybody that just came here after
everybody that just came here after lunch we had a bunch of conversations
lunch we had a bunch of conversations
lunch we had a bunch of conversations going on simultaneously how is it that
going on simultaneously how is it that
going on simultaneously how is it that you were able to listen to the person
you were able to listen to the person
you were able to listen to the person you were speaking with and filter
you were speaking with and filter
you were speaking with and filter everything else you still heard it if
everything else you still heard it if
everything else you still heard it if you actively turn the filter off you
you actively turn the filter off you
you actively turn the filter off you hear all the conversations and yet our
hear all the conversations and yet our
hear all the conversations and yet our brain is capable of zeroing in on the
brain is capable of zeroing in on the
brain is capable of zeroing in on the critical piece of information that we
critical piece of information that we
critical piece of information that we want at that time the subconscious takes
want at that time the subconscious takes
want at that time the subconscious takes over you don’t even think about it we
over you don’t even think about it we
over you don’t even think about it we process information on a number of
process information on a number of
process information on a number of levels I will define them as mechanical
levels I will define them as mechanical
levels I will define them as mechanical emotional and intellectual mechanical
emotional and intellectual mechanical
emotional and intellectual mechanical things that you can play intellectualist
things that you can play intellectualist
things that you can play intellectualist things that you will process addition
things that you will process addition
things that you will process addition subtraction and so forth and then
subtraction and so forth and then
subtraction and so forth and then emotional would be again those
emotional would be again those
emotional would be again those experiencing things that we deal with
experiencing things that we deal with
experiencing things that we deal with most of us believe that we process data
most of us believe that we process data
most of us believe that we process data pretty well right you think I need to
pretty well right you think I need to
pretty well right you think I need to make a decision
make a decision
make a decision I will reasonably validate this data I
I will reasonably validate this data I
I will reasonably validate this data I will come to a very accurate response
will come to a very accurate response
will come to a very accurate response and because I’m so talented
and because I’m so talented
and because I’m so talented I’ll be right what do we really do we go
I’ll be right what do we really do we go
I’ll be right what do we really do we go right below the conscious line and our
right below the conscious line and our
right below the conscious line and our subconscious takes over and it does the
subconscious takes over and it does the
subconscious takes over and it does the heavy lifting for us and we shortcut the
heavy lifting for us and we shortcut the
heavy lifting for us and we shortcut the response now the shortcuts are what’s
response now the shortcuts are what’s
response now the shortcuts are what’s dangerous because we all know shortcuts
dangerous because we all know shortcuts
dangerous because we all know shortcuts are convenient but sometimes they fool
are convenient but sometimes they fool
are convenient but sometimes they fool us so I’m going to ask the audience to
us so I’m going to ask the audience to
us so I’m going to ask the audience to participate in a couple of things so
participate in a couple of things so
participate in a couple of things so while you are finding the handout I’m
while you are finding the handout I’m
while you are finding the handout I’m going to give you an example of
going to give you an example of
going to give you an example of something that your brain does
something that your brain does
something that your brain does automatically that you’re very happy for
automatically that you’re very happy for
automatically that you’re very happy for the first one is the Mexican dinner
the first one is the Mexican dinner
the first one is the Mexican dinner theory now if you’ve ever been to a
theory now if you’ve ever been to a
theory now if you’ve ever been to a Mexican restaurant and ordered the
Mexican restaurant and ordered the
Mexican restaurant and ordered the burrito because burritos
burrito because burritos
burrito because burritos they always bring out the plate and what
they always bring out the plate and what
they always bring out the plate and what does the waiter universally say careful
does the waiter universally say careful
does the waiter universally say careful because the plate is hot thank you glad
because the plate is hot thank you glad
because the plate is hot thank you glad you nailed that one
you nailed that one
you nailed that one and there are two kinds of people in the
and there are two kinds of people in the
and there are two kinds of people in the world
world
world person number one says thank you person
person number one says thank you person
person number one says thank you person number two says ooh you’re right
number two says ooh you’re right
number two says ooh you’re right incidentally the difference between
incidentally the difference between
incidentally the difference between wisdom and experience what happens when
wisdom and experience what happens when
wisdom and experience what happens when the person touches the plate
the person touches the plate
the person touches the plate you immediately jerk your hand back
you immediately jerk your hand back
you immediately jerk your hand back before you even know it hurt as soon as
before you even know it hurt as soon as
before you even know it hurt as soon as it’s hot you have a nerve impulse
it’s hot you have a nerve impulse
it’s hot you have a nerve impulse traveling at almost 400 feet per second
traveling at almost 400 feet per second
traveling at almost 400 feet per second just shy of 300 miles per hour traveling
just shy of 300 miles per hour traveling
just shy of 300 miles per hour traveling up to your mind but before you even
up to your mind but before you even
up to your mind but before you even process it and send it back down you’ve
process it and send it back down you’ve
process it and send it back down you’ve already pulled your hand away it’s a
already pulled your hand away it’s a
already pulled your hand away it’s a reflex response it’s a shortcut it’s for
reflex response it’s a shortcut it’s for
reflex response it’s a shortcut it’s for safety now how many people have ever
safety now how many people have ever
safety now how many people have ever touched something cold and had the same
touched something cold and had the same
touched something cold and had the same reaction or my favorite how many people
reaction or my favorite how many people
reaction or my favorite how many people have ever waded into the water at the
have ever waded into the water at the
have ever waded into the water at the beach and something brushed against your
beach and something brushed against your
beach and something brushed against your foot and you jumped a mile out of the
foot and you jumped a mile out of the
foot and you jumped a mile out of the water when you’re not expecting
water when you’re not expecting
water when you’re not expecting something it’s a safety mechanism you
something it’s a safety mechanism you
something it’s a safety mechanism you look down and you realize it’s nothing
look down and you realize it’s nothing
look down and you realize it’s nothing but I overreacted our brains do that
but I overreacted our brains do that
but I overreacted our brains do that constantly so this is the audience
constantly so this is the audience
constantly so this is the audience participation part I want you to look in
participation part I want you to look in
participation part I want you to look in I’ve given everybody a handout for those
I’ve given everybody a handout for those
I’ve given everybody a handout for those of you watching online or on youtube
of you watching online or on youtube
of you watching online or on youtube we’re going to do something clever stop
we’re going to do something clever stop
we’re going to do something clever stop watching that we’re going to look at
watching that we’re going to look at
watching that we’re going to look at this piece of paper and all I’m going to
this piece of paper and all I’m going to
this piece of paper and all I’m going to do is on the right hand side I’m a draw
do is on the right hand side I’m a draw
do is on the right hand side I’m a draw click X and you can do the same at home
click X and you can do the same at home
click X and you can do the same at home any sheet of paper will do and then
any sheet of paper will do and then
any sheet of paper will do and then about five inches to the left of the X
about five inches to the left of the X
about five inches to the left of the X draw a dot were you aware that you
draw a dot were you aware that you
draw a dot were you aware that you actually have a physical blind spot in
actually have a physical blind spot in
actually have a physical blind spot in your eyeball it’s where the nerves
your eyeball it’s where the nerves
your eyeball it’s where the nerves connect you can’t see it but just like
connect you can’t see it but just like
connect you can’t see it but just like everybody smartphone when you take a
everybody smartphone when you take a
everybody smartphone when you take a panoramic picture your eyes take the
panoramic picture your eyes take the
panoramic picture your eyes take the information that’s available to them and
information that’s available to them and
information that’s available to them and they fill in the blanks so that you do
they fill in the blanks so that you do
they fill in the blanks so that you do not perceive it but we’re gonna find it
not perceive it but we’re gonna find it
not perceive it but we’re gonna find it together okay so what you’re gonna do
together okay so what you’re gonna do
together okay so what you’re gonna do first is let’s take the paper you’re
first is let’s take the paper you’re
first is let’s take the paper you’re going to hold it up start by touching it
going to hold it up start by touching it
going to hold it up start by touching it to your nose
to your nose
to your nose take your right eye and look at the X
take your right eye and look at the X
take your right eye and look at the X and close it and then you’re gonna pull
and close it and then you’re gonna pull
and close it and then you’re gonna pull it back staring at the X there’s gonna
it back staring at the X there’s gonna
it back staring at the X there’s gonna be a point somewhere and you’re probably
be a point somewhere and you’re probably
be a point somewhere and you’re probably gonna want to get it far as far the ride
gonna want to get it far as far the ride
gonna want to get it far as far the ride as you can see pull it in there and that
as you can see pull it in there and that
as you can see pull it in there and that dot will disappear I’m just a few people
dot will disappear I’m just a few people
dot will disappear I’m just a few people getting it right it goes away that’s the
getting it right it goes away that’s the
getting it right it goes away that’s the part that your eye can’t see when you
part that your eye can’t see when you
part that your eye can’t see when you open the other eye a tree appears magic
open the other eye a tree appears magic
open the other eye a tree appears magic right it does it automatically so we’ve
right it does it automatically so we’ve
right it does it automatically so we’ve done now we’ve seen that we have a
done now we’ve seen that we have a
done now we’ve seen that we have a reflex reaction our brain will interpret
reflex reaction our brain will interpret
reflex reaction our brain will interpret data for us automatically let’s play
data for us automatically let’s play
data for us automatically let’s play another game I’d like to do some math
another game I’d like to do some math
another game I’d like to do some math with everybody because we’re all sharp
with everybody because we’re all sharp
with everybody because we’re all sharp right and math won’t lie so let’s do
right and math won’t lie so let’s do
right and math won’t lie so let’s do this problem together real quickly I
this problem together real quickly I
this problem together real quickly I have a baseball bat in the ball the bat
have a baseball bat in the ball the bat
have a baseball bat in the ball the bat and the ball together cost a dollar ten
and the ball together cost a dollar ten
and the ball together cost a dollar ten the bat cost a dollar more than the ball
the bat cost a dollar more than the ball
the bat cost a dollar more than the ball how much does the bat cost as quickly as
how much does the bat cost as quickly as
how much does the bat cost as quickly as possible
possible
possible okay I’ll heard a lot of answers who
okay I’ll heard a lot of answers who
okay I’ll heard a lot of answers who said all right how much does the
said all right how much does the
said all right how much does the pitchers which one was which how much
pitchers which one was which how much
pitchers which one was which how much does the bat cost no ten cents five s
does the bat cost no ten cents five s
does the bat cost no ten cents five s who said five cents it’s correct it is
who said five cents it’s correct it is
who said five cents it’s correct it is correct the bat costs a dollar more than
correct the bat costs a dollar more than
correct the bat costs a dollar more than the ball five cents and a dollar five
the ball five cents and a dollar five
the ball five cents and a dollar five together cost a dollar ten now be honest
together cost a dollar ten now be honest
together cost a dollar ten now be honest how many got the math wrong it’s not
how many got the math wrong it’s not
how many got the math wrong it’s not because you don’t know how to do math
because you don’t know how to do math
because you don’t know how to do math it’s because you take mental shortcuts
it’s because you take mental shortcuts
it’s because you take mental shortcuts and we all do it so what does this mean
and we all do it so what does this mean
and we all do it so what does this mean in real life well first of all it means
in real life well first of all it means
in real life well first of all it means we need to be aware of how we make
we need to be aware of how we make
we need to be aware of how we make decisions because I already talked to
decisions because I already talked to
decisions because I already talked to you about mechanical and now
you about mechanical and now
you about mechanical and now intellectual what happens when we make
intellectual what happens when we make
intellectual what happens when we make emotional mistakes it can be a disaster
emotional mistakes it can be a disaster
emotional mistakes it can be a disaster well we could try to measure on a social
well we could try to measure on a social
well we could try to measure on a social scale and it’d be really difficult so
scale and it’d be really difficult so
scale and it’d be really difficult so I’m gonna go back to something that I am
I’m gonna go back to something that I am
I’m gonna go back to something that I am a little more familiar with by trade I
a little more familiar with by trade I
a little more familiar with by trade I work in the field of Finance so we track
work in the field of Finance so we track
work in the field of Finance so we track the numbers and what we found is that
the numbers and what we found is that
the numbers and what we found is that investors consistently make mistakes I
investors consistently make mistakes I
investors consistently make mistakes I know because I did this in fact I turned
know because I did this in fact I turned
know because I did this in fact I turned what could have been
what could have been
what could have been an in-state college fund for all four
an in-state college fund for all four
an in-state college fund for all four years into a couple of semesters yeah so
years into a couple of semesters yeah so
years into a couple of semesters yeah so that is the voice of experience here
that is the voice of experience here
that is the voice of experience here right the question is what do you learn
right the question is what do you learn
right the question is what do you learn what we learned in general is that
what we learned in general is that
what we learned in general is that investors underperform their benchmarks
investors underperform their benchmarks
investors underperform their benchmarks consistently on average company called
consistently on average company called
consistently on average company called dal bar tracked this for over 20 years
dal bar tracked this for over 20 years
dal bar tracked this for over 20 years and it’s been a study that’s been going
and it’s been a study that’s been going
and it’s been a study that’s been going on rolling 20-year periods the most
on rolling 20-year periods the most
on rolling 20-year periods the most recent data Kamath Ian came at the end
recent data Kamath Ian came at the end
recent data Kamath Ian came at the end of 2016 but you can track this back for
of 2016 but you can track this back for
of 2016 but you can track this back for almost 30 years now and the results were
almost 30 years now and the results were
almost 30 years now and the results were consistent what happened well investors
consistent what happened well investors
consistent what happened well investors consistently made this decision right
consistently made this decision right
consistently made this decision right about the time to feel good because the
about the time to feel good because the
about the time to feel good because the economic cycle is doing fine is when
economic cycle is doing fine is when
economic cycle is doing fine is when everybody decided to buy and then the
everybody decided to buy and then the
everybody decided to buy and then the markets promptly turned around and went
markets promptly turned around and went
markets promptly turned around and went down and at first everybody said well
down and at first everybody said well
down and at first everybody said well maybe it’ll be okay then oh I’m not so
maybe it’ll be okay then oh I’m not so
maybe it’ll be okay then oh I’m not so good and then we do what we
good and then we do what we
good and then we do what we professionally call freak out and at
professionally call freak out and at
professionally call freak out and at that point people would sell down here
that point people would sell down here
that point people would sell down here now how do you make money as an investor
now how do you make money as an investor
now how do you make money as an investor this is not a sophisticated question you
this is not a sophisticated question you
this is not a sophisticated question you want to buy low and sell high and what
want to buy low and sell high and what
want to buy low and sell high and what were people doing the exact opposite no
were people doing the exact opposite no
were people doing the exact opposite no did they mean to do this no was it the
did they mean to do this no was it the
did they mean to do this no was it the wrong decision yes was it the normal
wrong decision yes was it the normal
wrong decision yes was it the normal decision absolutely the question is why
decision absolutely the question is why
decision absolutely the question is why let’s understand how we deal with
let’s understand how we deal with
let’s understand how we deal with decisions real quickly first of all when
decisions real quickly first of all when
decisions real quickly first of all when you are otherwise unstressed or maybe a
you are otherwise unstressed or maybe a
you are otherwise unstressed or maybe a little bit stressed but capable of
little bit stressed but capable of
little bit stressed but capable of managing it you process information
managing it you process information
managing it you process information actively and above the line to make a
actively and above the line to make a
actively and above the line to make a decision what happens when you get
decision what happens when you get
decision what happens when you get really stressed you drop below the line
really stressed you drop below the line
really stressed you drop below the line and use shortcuts and the problem with
and use shortcuts and the problem with
and use shortcuts and the problem with shortcuts is they sacrifice accuracy for
shortcuts is they sacrifice accuracy for
shortcuts is they sacrifice accuracy for speed so if we are sacrificing accuracy
speed so if we are sacrificing accuracy
speed so if we are sacrificing accuracy f’s accuracy for speed we are now in the
f’s accuracy for speed we are now in the
f’s accuracy for speed we are now in the fight-or-flight response it makes sense
fight-or-flight response it makes sense
fight-or-flight response it makes sense that we would make immediate reactions
that we would make immediate reactions
that we would make immediate reactions and they are reactions not responses to
and they are reactions not responses to
and they are reactions not responses to the data our subconscious is doing the
the data our subconscious is doing the
the data our subconscious is doing the heavy lifting so no problem right will
heavy lifting so no problem right will
heavy lifting so no problem right will simp
simp
simp we make sure that we are making
we make sure that we are making
we make sure that we are making conscious decisions what happens when we
conscious decisions what happens when we
conscious decisions what happens when we find ourselves believing that we are
find ourselves believing that we are
find ourselves believing that we are making conscious decisions but they are
making conscious decisions but they are
making conscious decisions but they are in fact being misinterpreted
in fact being misinterpreted
in fact being misinterpreted welcome to the data danger zone where
welcome to the data danger zone where
welcome to the data danger zone where our emotions are filtering things and we
our emotions are filtering things and we
our emotions are filtering things and we are not actively aware of it how do we
are not actively aware of it how do we
are not actively aware of it how do we do this and why by show of hands how
do this and why by show of hands how
do this and why by show of hands how many people believe that you are biased
many people believe that you are biased
many people believe that you are biased I am grateful that I’m seeing lots of
I am grateful that I’m seeing lots of
I am grateful that I’m seeing lots of hands because I got to tell you if you
hands because I got to tell you if you
hands because I got to tell you if you didn’t I will introduce you to our first
didn’t I will introduce you to our first
didn’t I will introduce you to our first bias it’s called the blind spot we’re
bias it’s called the blind spot we’re
bias it’s called the blind spot we’re biased because our brains are constantly
biased because our brains are constantly
biased because our brains are constantly learning when I started this talk what
learning when I started this talk what
learning when I started this talk what did I use no cards every one of them
did I use no cards every one of them
did I use no cards every one of them blank it was simply to give you an
blank it was simply to give you an
blank it was simply to give you an incongruity point your expectation was
incongruity point your expectation was
incongruity point your expectation was better when you don’t have the
better when you don’t have the
better when you don’t have the expectation met you find yourself in a
expectation met you find yourself in a
expectation met you find yourself in a state of cognitive dissonance and your
state of cognitive dissonance and your
state of cognitive dissonance and your brain is saying well where does the
brain is saying well where does the
brain is saying well where does the cognitive dissonance come from it’s all
cognitive dissonance come from it’s all
cognitive dissonance come from it’s all built upon previous experience if you
built upon previous experience if you
built upon previous experience if you don’t recognize that you’re staring at
don’t recognize that you’re staring at
don’t recognize that you’re staring at your blind spot just like that eyeball
your blind spot just like that eyeball
your blind spot just like that eyeball you know there are lots of biases out
you know there are lots of biases out
you know there are lots of biases out there we’re just gonna highlight a few
there we’re just gonna highlight a few
there we’re just gonna highlight a few that you need to be aware of 9 out of 10
that you need to be aware of 9 out of 10
that you need to be aware of 9 out of 10 dentists agree this toothpaste is the
dentists agree this toothpaste is the
dentists agree this toothpaste is the best right
best right
best right remember that’s the bandwagon effect or
remember that’s the bandwagon effect or
remember that’s the bandwagon effect or what we would call consensus bias and I
what we would call consensus bias and I
what we would call consensus bias and I think we can all agree that the world
think we can all agree that the world
think we can all agree that the world used to be flat nine out of ten people
used to be flat nine out of ten people
used to be flat nine out of ten people would have told you the earth was flat
would have told you the earth was flat
would have told you the earth was flat just because the group thinks it doesn’t
just because the group thinks it doesn’t
just because the group thinks it doesn’t make it right confirmation bias you’ve
make it right confirmation bias you’ve
make it right confirmation bias you’ve had that argument on Facebook with your
had that argument on Facebook with your
had that argument on Facebook with your crazy cousin who believes the opposite
crazy cousin who believes the opposite
crazy cousin who believes the opposite of your political belief and Springs all
of your political belief and Springs all
of your political belief and Springs all the data and what do you do you go out
the data and what do you do you go out
the data and what do you do you go out and bring a dozen other websites in that
and bring a dozen other websites in that
and bring a dozen other websites in that prove your point
prove your point
prove your point confirmation bias you only look for the
confirmation bias you only look for the
confirmation bias you only look for the data that agrees with what you want to
data that agrees with what you want to
data that agrees with what you want to see overconfidence biased I’m right
see overconfidence biased I’m right
see overconfidence biased I’m right because it’s me how many people are
because it’s me how many people are
because it’s me how many people are above average drivers in this crowd
above average drivers in this crowd
above average drivers in this crowd right if you’re raising your hand you
right if you’re raising your hand you
right if you’re raising your hand you might have an overconfidence bias
might have an overconfidence bias
might have an overconfidence bias somebody’s below average we can’t all
somebody’s below average we can’t all
somebody’s below average we can’t all raise our hands and another favor to
raise our hands and another favor to
raise our hands and another favor to mind the halo effect business
mind the halo effect business
mind the halo effect business professionals be wary if you’ve ever
professionals be wary if you’ve ever
professionals be wary if you’ve ever been golfing with somebody and they’re
been golfing with somebody and they’re
been golfing with somebody and they’re great at golf and you believe that
great at golf and you believe that
great at golf and you believe that they’re great at everything that’s the
they’re great at everything that’s the
they’re great at everything that’s the halo effect it’s also the idea that
halo effect it’s also the idea that
halo effect it’s also the idea that pretty people must be more talented
pretty people must be more talented
pretty people must be more talented maybe not probably not I don’t know but
maybe not probably not I don’t know but
maybe not probably not I don’t know but I will tell you that that is a halo
I will tell you that that is a halo
I will tell you that that is a halo effect so what do we do well first you
effect so what do we do well first you
effect so what do we do well first you gotta recognize when you’re processing
gotta recognize when you’re processing
gotta recognize when you’re processing data that your subconscious wants to
data that your subconscious wants to
data that your subconscious wants to inform using your experiences you have
inform using your experiences you have
inform using your experiences you have to actively reach below that line pull
to actively reach below that line pull
to actively reach below that line pull it back up and scrub the data how I’m
it back up and scrub the data how I’m
it back up and scrub the data how I’m going to give you a very simple process
going to give you a very simple process
going to give you a very simple process I’m gonna divide data into two primary
I’m gonna divide data into two primary
I’m gonna divide data into two primary types objective and subjective
types objective and subjective
types objective and subjective subjective data is easy you get to
subjective data is easy you get to
subjective data is easy you get to measure it hot cold tall short all
measure it hot cold tall short all
measure it hot cold tall short all relative to your own perspective
objective data stuff that you measure
objective data stuff that you measure with an independent source and then tell
with an independent source and then tell
with an independent source and then tell me are you actively processing that data
me are you actively processing that data
me are you actively processing that data are you using your gut because when
are you using your gut because when
are you using your gut because when you’re actively processing object of
you’re actively processing object of
you’re actively processing object of data you’re on pretty firm ground we can
data you’re on pretty firm ground we can
data you’re on pretty firm ground we can call that stuff rock metaphorically
call that stuff rock metaphorically
call that stuff rock metaphorically subjective data that we are processing
subjective data that we are processing
subjective data that we are processing actively and trying actively to get good
actively and trying actively to get good
actively and trying actively to get good decisions with we’ll call that dirt
decisions with we’ll call that dirt
decisions with we’ll call that dirt because it’s still firm and it will
because it’s still firm and it will
because it’s still firm and it will brush-off if we make a mistake but it’s
brush-off if we make a mistake but it’s
brush-off if we make a mistake but it’s not as firm as the rock is it because
not as firm as the rock is it because
not as firm as the rock is it because it’s subjective but when you get below
it’s subjective but when you get below
it’s subjective but when you get below the line we get into the caution zone in
the line we get into the caution zone in
the line we get into the caution zone in the danger zone objective data that we
the danger zone objective data that we
the danger zone objective data that we are using our gut on is where we get
are using our gut on is where we get
are using our gut on is where we get fooled so be careful subjective data
fooled so be careful subjective data
fooled so be careful subjective data where we are using our gut there’s where
where we are using our gut there’s where
where we are using our gut there’s where we can get trapped and I call this the
we can get trapped and I call this the
we can get trapped and I call this the quicksand quicksand zone and this is
quicksand quicksand zone and this is
quicksand quicksand zone and this is also the stuff you want to be careful of
also the stuff you want to be careful of
also the stuff you want to be careful of if you’ve ever had a episode of road
if you’ve ever had a episode of road
if you’ve ever had a episode of road rage or washing out your kids because
rage or washing out your kids because
rage or washing out your kids because you’re mad something like that
you’re mad something like that
you’re mad something like that you are not processing the data you are
you are not processing the data you are
you are not processing the data you are reacting to it so be aware
reacting to it so be aware
reacting to it so be aware finally why because when you are
finally why because when you are
finally why because when you are actively processing you’re engaged in
actively processing you’re engaged in
actively processing you’re engaged in the process when you are not you are
the process when you are not you are
the process when you are not you are much more easily manipulated we live in
much more easily manipulated we live in
much more easily manipulated we live in a world where the media is busy selling
a world where the media is busy selling
a world where the media is busy selling you everything why if you’re not paying
you everything why if you’re not paying
you everything why if you’re not paying for the product you are the product so
for the product you are the product so
for the product you are the product so they edit Oriya lies the news to get
they edit Oriya lies the news to get
they edit Oriya lies the news to get below the line to attract your attention
below the line to attract your attention
below the line to attract your attention things like silly little shiny objects
things like silly little shiny objects
things like silly little shiny objects why would I point this out because it
why would I point this out because it
why would I point this out because it commands your attention and every one of
commands your attention and every one of
commands your attention and every one of you picked up and engaged in the process
you picked up and engaged in the process
you picked up and engaged in the process with me why as a credible source you
with me why as a credible source you
with me why as a credible source you would simply follow me because I asked
would simply follow me because I asked
would simply follow me because I asked you to so I will ask you in the future
you to so I will ask you in the future
you to so I will ask you in the future to do this when processing data slow it
to do this when processing data slow it
to do this when processing data slow it down
down
down scan it well slow down consciously
scan it well slow down consciously
scan it well slow down consciously analyze the data keep it above the line
analyze the data keep it above the line
analyze the data keep it above the line reach down to yourself conscious and
reach down to yourself conscious and
reach down to yourself conscious and yank it back up so that at the end of
yank it back up so that at the end of
yank it back up so that at the end of this I can tell you when you turn on
this I can tell you when you turn on
this I can tell you when you turn on your brain and think and then scan the
your brain and think and then scan the
your brain and think and then scan the data I can ask your gut with much better
data I can ask your gut with much better
data I can ask your gut with much better confidence how does that make you feel
”
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