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The Problem with Payback | Paul Lupinacci | TEDxGuelphU


a few years ago I was telling my friend

a few years ago I was telling my friend Patrick that I was thinking of buying a

Patrick that I was thinking of buying a

Patrick that I was thinking of buying a new car and I told them about some of

new car and I told them about some of

new car and I told them about some of the features that I was considering like

the features that I was considering like

the features that I was considering like leather seats premium sound system and

leather seats premium sound system and

leather seats premium sound system and navigation and he encouraged me to get

navigation and he encouraged me to get

navigation and he encouraged me to get these features he said something about

these features he said something about

these features he said something about how they would serve me well in my

how they would serve me well in my

how they would serve me well in my impending midlife crisis so later in the

impending midlife crisis so later in the

impending midlife crisis so later in the same conversation I told Patrick that I

same conversation I told Patrick that I

same conversation I told Patrick that I was that one of the cars I was thinking

was that one of the cars I was thinking

was that one of the cars I was thinking of it was an electric vehicle but this

of it was an electric vehicle but this

of it was an electric vehicle but this time he asked me what would be the

time he asked me what would be the

time he asked me what would be the payback for the extra cost of electric

payback for the extra cost of electric

payback for the extra cost of electric over gasoline in other words how long

over gasoline in other words how long

over gasoline in other words how long until the savings in gas equaled the

until the savings in gas equaled the

until the savings in gas equaled the extra cost of the electric car and that

extra cost of the electric car and that

extra cost of the electric car and that got me thinking well I you know I

got me thinking well I you know I

got me thinking well I you know I thought why does why do we apply

thought why does why do we apply

thought why does why do we apply financial metrics to some edge to some

financial metrics to some edge to some

financial metrics to some edge to some purchases but not others like why didn’t

purchases but not others like why didn’t

purchases but not others like why didn’t he ask me about the payback for the

he ask me about the payback for the

he ask me about the payback for the leather seats and it seems to me that

leather seats and it seems to me that

leather seats and it seems to me that this often happens with purchases that

this often happens with purchases that

this often happens with purchases that have some environmental impact and

have some environmental impact and

have some environmental impact and that’s when I realized that I have a

that’s when I realized that I have a

that’s when I realized that I have a problem with payback

problem with payback

problem with payback you see payback measures the benefit for

you see payback measures the benefit for

you see payback measures the benefit for the purchaser only but what about the

the purchaser only but what about the

the purchaser only but what about the rest of us like in the case of an

rest of us like in the case of an

rest of us like in the case of an electric vehicle there are benefits like

electric vehicle there are benefits like

electric vehicle there are benefits like reduce greenhouse gas emissions and

reduce greenhouse gas emissions and

reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improved air quality and they benefit

improved air quality and they benefit

improved air quality and they benefit everybody not just the purchaser so that

everybody not just the purchaser so that

everybody not just the purchaser so that got me thinking this is kind of like a

got me thinking this is kind of like a

got me thinking this is kind of like a pay forward because these are benefits

pay forward because these are benefits

pay forward because these are benefits that apply to all of us long into the

that apply to all of us long into the

that apply to all of us long into the future

future

future now both pay back and pay forward are

now both pay back and pay forward are

now both pay back and pay forward are important pay back provides the

important pay back provides the

important pay back provides the financial justification for the purchase

financial justification for the purchase

financial justification for the purchase but pay forward takes into account the

but pay forward takes into account the

but pay forward takes into account the benefits for all of us into the future

benefits for all of us into the future

benefits for all of us into the future and I think there’s lots of examples of

and I think there’s lots of examples of

and I think there’s lots of examples of purchases

purchases

purchases that provide both the financial payback

that provide both the financial payback

that provide both the financial payback and environmental pay forward and I’d

and environmental pay forward and I’d

and environmental pay forward and I’d like to tell you about three projects

like to tell you about three projects

like to tell you about three projects that I’ve done over the past 15 years

that I’ve done over the past 15 years

that I’ve done over the past 15 years that have turned out to be both

that have turned out to be both

that have turned out to be both financially and environmentally

financially and environmentally

financially and environmentally rewarding and I kind of think of these

rewarding and I kind of think of these

rewarding and I kind of think of these projects like bricks you know on their

projects like bricks you know on their

projects like bricks you know on their own they don’t actually accomplish much

own they don’t actually accomplish much

own they don’t actually accomplish much but as you’ll see when put together they

but as you’ll see when put together they

but as you’ll see when put together they actually have turned into building

actually have turned into building

actually have turned into building something pretty substantial so the

something pretty substantial so the

something pretty substantial so the first project was solar pool heating

first project was solar pool heating

first project was solar pool heating solar pool heater that was starting to

solar pool heater that was starting to

solar pool heater that was starting to fail so I took that opportunity to

fail so I took that opportunity to

fail so I took that opportunity to investigate solar pool heating and if

investigate solar pool heating and if

investigate solar pool heating and if you’re not familiar with it the way

you’re not familiar with it the way

you’re not familiar with it the way solar pool heating it through the

solar pool heating it through the

solar pool heating it through the electric heater it pumps it up to the

electric heater it pumps it up to the

electric heater it pumps it up to the roof and there’s tubes that run that the

roof and there’s tubes that run that the

roof and there’s tubes that run that the water runs through the Sun you know

water runs through the Sun you know

water runs through the Sun you know absorbs the energy from the Sun and

absorbs the energy from the Sun and

absorbs the energy from the Sun and heats up the water it’s a great system

heats up the water it’s a great system

heats up the water it’s a great system and on a sunny day the pool can rise in

and on a sunny day the pool can rise in

and on a sunny day the pool can rise in temperature by up to 10 degrees Celsius

temperature by up to 10 degrees Celsius

temperature by up to 10 degrees Celsius and it’s all free now the problem with

and it’s all free now the problem with

and it’s all free now the problem with solar pool heating solar but the

solar pool heating solar but the

solar pool heating solar but the operating cost for solar pool heated

operating cost for solar pool heated

operating cost for solar pool heated per year so from a payback standpoint

per year so from a payback standpoint

per year so from a payback standpoint that was six point two years and from a

that was six point two years and from a

that was six point two years and from a pay forward the energy savings were

pay forward the energy savings were

pay forward the energy savings were about four thousand kilowatt hours per

about four thousand kilowatt hours per

about four thousand kilowatt hours per year and the that means that the

year and the that means that the

year and the that means that the associated greenhouse gas emissions that

associated greenhouse gas emissions that

associated greenhouse gas emissions that were saved were about 1600 kilograms per

were saved were about 1600 kilograms per

were saved were about 1600 kilograms per year so fast forward a couple years and

year so fast forward a couple years and

year so fast forward a couple years and in 2005 we decided to add on to our

in 2005 we decided to add on to our

in 2005 we decided to add on to our house and in doing so we were going to

house and in doing so we were going to

house and in doing so we were going to exceed the capacity of our heating and

exceed the capacity of our heating and

exceed the capacity of our heating and cooling system so this gave me an

cooling system so this gave me an

cooling system so this gave me an opportunity to investigate alternatives

opportunity to investigate alternatives

opportunity to investigate alternatives and I looked into geothermal geothermal

and I looked into geothermal geothermal

and I looked into geothermal geothermal or ground source if you’re not familiar

or ground source if you’re not familiar

or ground source if you’re not familiar with it the way it works is

with it the way it works is

with it the way it works is the the temperature of the ground about

the the temperature of the ground about

the the temperature of the ground about two meters below the surface is a

two meters below the surface is a

two meters below the surface is a constant 12 degrees Celsius and the

constant 12 degrees Celsius and the

constant 12 degrees Celsius and the great thing about 12 degrees Celsius is

great thing about 12 degrees Celsius is

great thing about 12 degrees Celsius is that on a hot summer day 12 degrees

that on a hot summer day 12 degrees

that on a hot summer day 12 degrees feels pretty cool and on a cold winter

feels pretty cool and on a cold winter

feels pretty cool and on a cold winter day 12 degrees feels pretty warm so what

day 12 degrees feels pretty warm so what

day 12 degrees feels pretty warm so what they do is they dig a trench they lay

they do is they dig a trench they lay

they do is they dig a trench they lay down tube and they run fluid through it

down tube and they run fluid through it

down tube and they run fluid through it and it takes advantage of that

and it takes advantage of that

and it takes advantage of that difference in temperature to heat and

difference in temperature to heat and

difference in temperature to heat and cool the house it’s a very very

cool the house it’s a very very

cool the house it’s a very very efficient system the problem is it’s

efficient system the problem is it’s

efficient system the problem is it’s expensive for the upfront investment and

expensive for the upfront investment and

expensive for the upfront investment and in this case the extra cost was $13,000

in this case the extra cost was $13,000

in this case the extra cost was $13,000 but the operating cost is very low so it

but the operating cost is very low so it

but the operating cost is very low so it saves me $1,700 a year in energy and so

saves me $1,700 a year in energy and so

saves me $1,700 a year in energy and so the payback turns out to be seven point

the payback turns out to be seven point

the payback turns out to be seven point seven years and from a pay forward

seven years and from a pay forward

seven years and from a pay forward standpoint the energy savings were 11

standpoint the energy savings were 11

standpoint the energy savings were 11 just a little over 11,000 kilowatt hours

just a little over 11,000 kilowatt hours

just a little over 11,000 kilowatt hours that’s about a quarter of my energy bill

that’s about a quarter of my energy bill

that’s about a quarter of my energy bill was reduced just by putting in

was reduced just by putting in

was reduced just by putting in geothermal and the Associated greenhouse

geothermal and the Associated greenhouse

geothermal and the Associated greenhouse gas reductions were over 4,600 kilograms

gas reductions were over 4,600 kilograms

gas reductions were over 4,600 kilograms that’s the equivalent of taking one car

that’s the equivalent of taking one car

that’s the equivalent of taking one car off the road so we were pretty happy

off the road so we were pretty happy

off the road so we were pretty happy with that and fast forward a few years

with that and fast forward a few years

with that and fast forward a few years more and in 2014 I actually did buy that

more and in 2014 I actually did buy that

more and in 2014 I actually did buy that electric vehicle and I did get the

electric vehicle and I did get the

electric vehicle and I did get the leather seats and all the other stuff

leather seats and all the other stuff

leather seats and all the other stuff that Patrick suggested and in 2015 the

that Patrick suggested and in 2015 the

that Patrick suggested and in 2015 the Ontario government had the micro Fit

Ontario government had the micro Fit

Ontario government had the micro Fit program and that was a program where

program and that was a program where

program and that was a program where they would commit to a long term 20-year

they would commit to a long term 20-year

they would commit to a long term 20-year contract to buy power that anybody

contract to buy power that anybody

contract to buy power that anybody produced using a solar installation so

produced using a solar installation so

produced using a solar installation so we went ahead and we put in a 10

we went ahead and we put in a 10

we went ahead and we put in a 10 kilowatt rooftop solar panels and the

kilowatt rooftop solar panels and the

kilowatt rooftop solar panels and the whole installation the cost for that was

whole installation the cost for that was

whole installation the cost for that was $29,000 now that system generates 4,500

$29,000 now that system generates 4,500

$29,000 now that system generates 4,500 dollars per year so the payback is six

dollars per year so the payback is six

dollars per year so the payback is six point four years the pay forward because

point four years the pay forward because

point four years the pay forward because it generates 11,500 kilowatts a year of

it generates 11,500 kilowatts a year of

it generates 11,500 kilowatts a year of energy and it the associated reductions

energy and it the associated reductions

energy and it the associated reductions for greenhouse gases were four

for greenhouse gases were four

for greenhouse gases were four thousand six hundred kilograms that’s

thousand six hundred kilograms that’s

thousand six hundred kilograms that’s like taking another vehicle off the road

like taking another vehicle off the road

like taking another vehicle off the road so in summary and there’s a lot of

so in summary and there’s a lot of

so in summary and there’s a lot of numbers on this chart but really just if

numbers on this chart but really just if

numbers on this chart but really just if you think of the bottom line these three

you think of the bottom line these three

you think of the bottom line these three projects combined result in taking

projects combined result in taking

projects combined result in taking eleven thousand kilograms a year of

eleven thousand kilograms a year of

eleven thousand kilograms a year of greenhouse gases were that we’re not

greenhouse gases were that we’re not

greenhouse gases were that we’re not producing and the total payback for all

producing and the total payback for all

producing and the total payback for all three of those projects is six point

three of those projects is six point

three of those projects is six point seven years now six point seven is not a

seven years now six point seven is not a

seven years now six point seven is not a great payback it’s okay but it’s not

great payback it’s okay but it’s not

great payback it’s okay but it’s not great but the point is we didn’t make

great but the point is we didn’t make

great but the point is we didn’t make our decision based solely on the payback

our decision based solely on the payback

our decision based solely on the payback we took into account those other

we took into account those other

we took into account those other benefits like the environmental

benefits like the environmental

benefits like the environmental improvements and all of those things

improvements and all of those things

improvements and all of those things that pay forward and we balanced the two

that pay forward and we balanced the two

that pay forward and we balanced the two of those and decided that the

of those and decided that the

of those and decided that the combination was was the right thing to

combination was was the right thing to

combination was was the right thing to do and made us want to proceed so here’s

do and made us want to proceed so here’s

do and made us want to proceed so here’s a here’s a graph of our energy

a here’s a graph of our energy

a here’s a graph of our energy consumption over the last 15 years Nick

consumption over the last 15 years Nick

consumption over the last 15 years Nick said I was an engineer so I like to

said I was an engineer so I like to

said I was an engineer so I like to measure things so you get the sense of

measure things so you get the sense of

measure things so you get the sense of all this

all this

all this so I’ve superimposed some of the key

so I’ve superimposed some of the key

so I’ve superimposed some of the key milestones along the way and you’ll see

milestones along the way and you’ll see

milestones along the way and you’ll see that starting from the left-hand side

that starting from the left-hand side

that starting from the left-hand side you know in 2004 that was our first year

you know in 2004 that was our first year

you know in 2004 that was our first year of full solar pool heating and then we

of full solar pool heating and then we

of full solar pool heating and then we start building that house addition and

start building that house addition and

start building that house addition and we start using more and more energy

we start using more and more energy

we start using more and more energy because of that and then we put in

because of that and then we put in

because of that and then we put in geothermal in 2007 is the first full

geothermal in 2007 is the first full

geothermal in 2007 is the first full year of geothermal and that’s that

year of geothermal and that’s that

year of geothermal and that’s that dramatic drop in energy consumption

dramatic drop in energy consumption

dramatic drop in energy consumption that’s about a 25% drop in my energy

that’s about a 25% drop in my energy

that’s about a 25% drop in my energy consumption and then we carry on pretty

consumption and then we carry on pretty

consumption and then we carry on pretty flat for a number of years I buy the

flat for a number of years I buy the

flat for a number of years I buy the electric vehicle at the end of 2014

electric vehicle at the end of 2014

electric vehicle at the end of 2014 because we charge it at home at night

because we charge it at home at night

because we charge it at home at night the consumption starts to go up again

the consumption starts to go up again

the consumption starts to go up again and then in 2015 we put in solar and so

and then in 2015 we put in solar and so

and then in 2015 we put in solar and so you see that other big drop in our net

you see that other big drop in our net

you see that other big drop in our net energy consumption another 25% drop in

energy consumption another 25% drop in

energy consumption another 25% drop in energy consumption now compare that to

energy consumption now compare that to

energy consumption now compare that to these gray bars and the gray bars are

these gray bars and the gray bars are

these gray bars and the gray bars are what my energy consumption would have

what my energy consumption would have

what my energy consumption would have been

been

been if I hadn’t done these three projects

if I hadn’t done these three projects

if I hadn’t done these three projects and you see some pretty big differences

and you see some pretty big differences

and you see some pretty big differences there that by the end of it by the end

there that by the end of it by the end

there that by the end of it by the end of 2017 my energy consumption is about

of 2017 my energy consumption is about

of 2017 my energy consumption is about half of what it would have been had I

half of what it would have been had I

half of what it would have been had I not done those things so and that’s the

not done those things so and that’s the

not done those things so and that’s the energy savings as well as all of the

energy savings as well as all of the

energy savings as well as all of the associated greenhouse gas and an

associated greenhouse gas and an

associated greenhouse gas and an environmental benefits so that’s the pay

environmental benefits so that’s the pay

environmental benefits so that’s the pay forward and you know now you see what I

forward and you know now you see what I

forward and you know now you see what I mean when I say that you know those

mean when I say that you know those

mean when I say that you know those individual projects they didn’t sound

individual projects they didn’t sound

individual projects they didn’t sound too good but when you look at it over

too good but when you look at it over

too good but when you look at it over time and you look at the combined effort

time and you look at the combined effort

time and you look at the combined effort these are those are the bricks that I

these are those are the bricks that I

these are those are the bricks that I was talking about that ended up building

was talking about that ended up building

was talking about that ended up building something I think pretty substantial so

something I think pretty substantial so

something I think pretty substantial so what’s the next project for me well

what’s the next project for me well

what’s the next project for me well we’re starting to investigate energy

we’re starting to investigate energy

we’re starting to investigate energy storage for the home so this would be a

storage for the home so this would be a

storage for the home so this would be a residential sized battery that we would

residential sized battery that we would

residential sized battery that we would use as backup I could replace something

use as backup I could replace something

use as backup I could replace something like aged diesel generator in case we

like aged diesel generator in case we

like aged diesel generator in case we ever lose power but it can also be

ever lose power but it can also be

ever lose power but it can also be something that we would charge with

something that we would charge with

something that we would charge with solar power or charge up using really

solar power or charge up using really

solar power or charge up using really low cost power in the off-peak times and

low cost power in the off-peak times and

low cost power in the off-peak times and then using that power in high peak times

then using that power in high peak times

then using that power in high peak times where the power is more expensive so we

where the power is more expensive so we

where the power is more expensive so we would save a fair amount of money but

would save a fair amount of money but

would save a fair amount of money but I’m still calculating the payback and of

I’m still calculating the payback and of

I’m still calculating the payback and of course buffet forward for that

so what does this mean for all of us

so what does this mean for all of us well I know not everybody can you know

well I know not everybody can you know

well I know not everybody can you know has the room to put in geothermal or

has the room to put in geothermal or

has the room to put in geothermal or wants to spend the money upfront for

wants to spend the money upfront for

wants to spend the money upfront for some of these things but I do think

some of these things but I do think

some of these things but I do think there’s some important lessons and

there’s some important lessons and

there’s some important lessons and sometimes some of these environmental

sometimes some of these environmental

sometimes some of these environmental things can seem daunting you know that

things can seem daunting you know that

things can seem daunting you know that the problems are so big what can one

the problems are so big what can one

the problems are so big what can one person do but I do think there are some

person do but I do think there are some

person do but I do think there are some things that we can do first of all clean

things that we can do first of all clean

things that we can do first of all clean technology is advancing very quickly and

technology is advancing very quickly and

technology is advancing very quickly and the paybacks and the pay forwards are

the paybacks and the pay forwards are

the paybacks and the pay forwards are improving so rapidly all the time so I

improving so rapidly all the time so I

improving so rapidly all the time so I encourage you to think about these

encourage you to think about these

encourage you to think about these things you know do the calculations and

things you know do the calculations and

things you know do the calculations and maybe you’ve thought about them a few

maybe you’ve thought about them a few

maybe you’ve thought about them a few years ago but revisit them because

years ago but revisit them because

years ago but revisit them because everything is improving very very

everything is improving very very

everything is improving very very quickly

quickly

quickly second if you notice two of my projects

second if you notice two of my projects

second if you notice two of my projects were based were driven by replacement

were based were driven by replacement

were based were driven by replacement decisions so my pool heater died so I

decisions so my pool heater died so I

decisions so my pool heater died so I had to do something or we built onto the

had to do something or we built onto the

had to do something or we built onto the house and I had to replace the heating

house and I had to replace the heating

house and I had to replace the heating cooling system so it’s easy to you know

cooling system so it’s easy to you know

cooling system so it’s easy to you know nobody’s going to you know take out a

nobody’s going to you know take out a

nobody’s going to you know take out a perfectly good piece of equipment just

perfectly good piece of equipment just

perfectly good piece of equipment just to put in something that’s a little more

to put in something that’s a little more

to put in something that’s a little more efficient but when you have to make a

efficient but when you have to make a

efficient but when you have to make a change that’s when you can make the

change that’s when you can make the

change that’s when you can make the greatest impact so even though it’s a

greatest impact so even though it’s a

greatest impact so even though it’s a little more time-consuming it requires a

little more time-consuming it requires a

little more time-consuming it requires a little more effort to do the research

little more effort to do the research

little more effort to do the research find out what the alternatives are of

find out what the alternatives are of

find out what the alternatives are of course calculate the payback and the pay

course calculate the payback and the pay

course calculate the payback and the pay forward that’s when you can really make

forward that’s when you can really make

forward that’s when you can really make a difference another lesson I think is

a difference another lesson I think is

a difference another lesson I think is to pay attention to how we talk about

to pay attention to how we talk about

to pay attention to how we talk about payback and financial returns you know

payback and financial returns you know

payback and financial returns you know when when we talk about payback we talk

when when we talk about payback we talk

when when we talk about payback we talk about how long how long until the

about how long how long until the

about how long how long until the savings equal the extra cost but that

savings equal the extra cost but that

savings equal the extra cost but that kind of implies that the benefits end

kind of implies that the benefits end

kind of implies that the benefits end once the payback has been achieved but

once the payback has been achieved but

once the payback has been achieved but that’s not the case at all those those

that’s not the case at all those those

that’s not the case at all those those savings continue long into the future in

savings continue long into the future in

savings continue long into the future in the case of my projects already they’ve

the case of my projects already they’ve

the case of my projects already they’ve generated over thirty five thousand

generated over thirty five thousand

generated over thirty five thousand dollars of savings so instead of

dollars of savings so instead of

dollars of savings so instead of thinking about how long until we achieve

thinking about how long until we achieve

thinking about how long until we achieve the payback we should think about how

the payback we should think about how

the payback we should think about how much the savings are going to be over

much the savings are going to be over

much the savings are going to be over the lifetime of that piece of equipment

the lifetime of that piece of equipment

the lifetime of that piece of equipment or that asset if we do that then our

or that asset if we do that then our

or that asset if we do that then our mindset will probably be more more

mindset will probably be more more

mindset will probably be more more positive towards that purchase and

positive towards that purchase and

positive towards that purchase and finally if you’re talking to somebody

finally if you’re talking to somebody

finally if you’re talking to somebody and they’re talking and they’re

and they’re talking and they’re

and they’re talking and they’re considering you know hybrid or electric

considering you know hybrid or electric

considering you know hybrid or electric vehicle or some kind of a clean

vehicle or some kind of a clean

vehicle or some kind of a clean technology decision you know by all

technology decision you know by all

technology decision you know by all means ask them about the payback but

means ask them about the payback but

means ask them about the payback but also ask them about the pay forward get

also ask them about the pay forward get

also ask them about the pay forward get them thinking about the benefits not

them thinking about the benefits not

them thinking about the benefits not just to themselves but to everybody else

just to themselves but to everybody else

just to themselves but to everybody else and see if you can get them to take both

and see if you can get them to take both

and see if you can get them to take both pay back and pay forward into

pay back and pay forward into

pay back and pay forward into consideration when they make their

consideration when they make their

consideration when they make their decision because if they do that every

decision because if they do that every

decision because if they do that every time that happens that’s one more brick

time that happens that’s one more brick

time that happens that’s one more brick that gets put to words building a better

that gets put to words building a better

that gets put to words building a better world thank you

world thank you

world thank you [Applause]

”

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