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The magic of pain prediction | Æli Manouchehri | TEDxArendal


not much is known about migraine

not much is known about migraine even though close to a billion people

even though close to a billion people

even though close to a billion people suffer from it worldwide the name

suffer from it worldwide the name

suffer from it worldwide the name migraine derives from the Greek word

migraine derives from the Greek word

migraine derives from the Greek word Hemi crania meaning half the skull

Hemi crania meaning half the skull

Hemi crania meaning half the skull migraines medication needs to be taken

migraines medication needs to be taken

migraines medication needs to be taken before an attack for it to have the

before an attack for it to have the

before an attack for it to have the desired effect

desired effect

desired effect if taken later it has little to no

if taken later it has little to no

if taken later it has little to no effect as some of you know migraine is

effect as some of you know migraine is

effect as some of you know migraine is extremely painful surprising and very

extremely painful surprising and very

extremely painful surprising and very inhibitory for some it starts with an

inhibitory for some it starts with an

inhibitory for some it starts with an aura that’s when you become

aura that’s when you become

aura that’s when you become light-sensitive some it is these spots

light-sensitive some it is these spots

light-sensitive some it is these spots at this stage at the next stage your

at this stage at the next stage your

at this stage at the next stage your shoulders are next stiffen up and start

shoulders are next stiffen up and start

shoulders are next stiffen up and start aching at the final stage the pain moves

aching at the final stage the pain moves

aching at the final stage the pain moves to one side of the skull hence the name

to one side of the skull hence the name

to one side of the skull hence the name Hemi cranium and finally settles behind

Hemi cranium and finally settles behind

Hemi cranium and finally settles behind one eye the pain comes in waves or

one eye the pain comes in waves or

one eye the pain comes in waves or ripples spreading out from these three

ripples spreading out from these three

ripples spreading out from these three areas you will have difficulty

areas you will have difficulty

areas you will have difficulty concentrating and things will take

concentrating and things will take

concentrating and things will take longer to do especially if you’re

longer to do especially if you’re

longer to do especially if you’re stressing and under pressure that’s when

stressing and under pressure that’s when

stressing and under pressure that’s when the waves or ripples become even

the waves or ripples become even

the waves or ripples become even stronger at this point you have a

stronger at this point you have a

stronger at this point you have a full-blown migraine attack the only

full-blown migraine attack the only

full-blown migraine attack the only thing that works is being knocked out

thing that works is being knocked out

thing that works is being knocked out preferably by medication but believe me

preferably by medication but believe me

preferably by medication but believe me you consider knocking yourself out by

you consider knocking yourself out by

you consider knocking yourself out by any means necessary when it’s had its

any means necessary when it’s had its

any means necessary when it’s had its worst migraine tends to sneak up on you

worst migraine tends to sneak up on you

worst migraine tends to sneak up on you you will miss out on a lot because of

you will miss out on a lot because of

you will miss out on a lot because of its surprising nature you can try to

its surprising nature you can try to

its surprising nature you can try to stop you can try to manage the pain with

stop you can try to manage the pain with

stop you can try to manage the pain with painkillers if you don’t stop it before

painkillers if you don’t stop it before

painkillers if you don’t stop it before it starts but the waves or ripples are

it starts but the waves or ripples are

it starts but the waves or ripples are always there in the background and

always there in the background and

always there in the background and migraine is also what I call an

migraine is also what I call an

migraine is also what I call an invisible illness I mean if you’ve had a

invisible illness I mean if you’ve had a

invisible illness I mean if you’ve had a broken arm or a leg others could see

broken arm or a leg others could see

broken arm or a leg others could see that and act accordingly pull out a

that and act accordingly pull out a

that and act accordingly pull out a chair for you open the door and so on

chair for you open the door and so on

chair for you open the door and so on but with migraine people think you just

but with migraine people think you just

but with migraine people think you just grumpy and unfortunately there are many

grumpy and unfortunately there are many

grumpy and unfortunately there are many different triggers to a migraine attack

different triggers to a migraine attack

different triggers to a migraine attack you have stress weather pressure extreme

you have stress weather pressure extreme

you have stress weather pressure extreme changes in temperature things you eat

changes in temperature things you eat

changes in temperature things you eat and drink and the list goes on I also

and drink and the list goes on I also

and drink and the list goes on I also suffer from migraine attacks working as

suffer from migraine attacks working as

suffer from migraine attacks working as an on-site engineer was made so much

an on-site engineer was made so much

an on-site engineer was made so much harder

harder

harder due to the surprising nature of my

due to the surprising nature of my

due to the surprising nature of my migraine attacks painkillers were a

migraine attacks painkillers were a

migraine attacks painkillers were a daily routine just to be able to do the

daily routine just to be able to do the

daily routine just to be able to do the job required of me but painkillers are

job required of me but painkillers are

job required of me but painkillers are just band-aid and by no means a solution

just band-aid and by no means a solution

just band-aid and by no means a solution the migraine attacks became a frequent

the migraine attacks became a frequent

the migraine attacks became a frequent weekly thing that went on for days and I

weekly thing that went on for days and I

weekly thing that went on for days and I rarely managed to take my medication in

rarely managed to take my medication in

rarely managed to take my medication in time so I always had to supplement with

time so I always had to supplement with

time so I always had to supplement with painkillers to start with paracetamol up

painkillers to start with paracetamol up

painkillers to start with paracetamol up to three every four hours when they

to three every four hours when they

to three every four hours when they stopped working

stopped working

stopped working I got prescribed codeine eventually they

I got prescribed codeine eventually they

I got prescribed codeine eventually they stopped working then I got then and the

stopped working then I got then and the

stopped working then I got then and the doctors told me to mix the two to get an

doctors told me to mix the two to get an

doctors told me to mix the two to get an increased effect out of them so that’s

increased effect out of them so that’s

increased effect out of them so that’s what I did and when that stopped working

what I did and when that stopped working

what I did and when that stopped working my choices were limited

my choices were limited

my choices were limited I could either choose valium and go down

I could either choose valium and go down

I could either choose valium and go down that road or I could stop and find a new

that road or I could stop and find a new

that road or I could stop and find a new approach to my pain so that’s what I did

approach to my pain so that’s what I did

approach to my pain so that’s what I did migraine is thought to be genetic

migraine is thought to be genetic

migraine is thought to be genetic my dad has it my grandmother has it and

my dad has it my grandmother has it and

my dad has it my grandmother has it and I guess that’s where I get it I love my

I guess that’s where I get it I love my

I guess that’s where I get it I love my grandma and I love spending time with

grandma and I love spending time with

grandma and I love spending time with her especially because she makes the

her especially because she makes the

her especially because she makes the best Persian food ever

best Persian food ever

best Persian food ever but sometimes it’s really hard seeing

but sometimes it’s really hard seeing

but sometimes it’s really hard seeing her struggle with migraine and

her struggle with migraine and

her struggle with migraine and fibromyalgia while she’s going through

fibromyalgia while she’s going through

fibromyalgia while she’s going through all this trouble for us she tries to put

all this trouble for us she tries to put

all this trouble for us she tries to put on a smile but we see the pain she’s in

on a smile but we see the pain she’s in

on a smile but we see the pain she’s in and how much she hates being surprised

and how much she hates being surprised

and how much she hates being surprised by that pain being in her 70s there

by that pain being in her 70s there

by that pain being in her 70s there isn’t much you can do but be surprised

isn’t much you can do but be surprised

isn’t much you can do but be surprised what I pay and I wanted to change that I

what I pay and I wanted to change that I

what I pay and I wanted to change that I decided to work full time with this idea

decided to work full time with this idea

decided to work full time with this idea about how to predict pain and I started

about how to predict pain and I started

about how to predict pain and I started doing plenty of research while doing my

doing plenty of research while doing my

doing plenty of research while doing my research I found out that supplementing

research I found out that supplementing

research I found out that supplementing painkillers like I did it was the way

painkillers like I did it was the way

painkillers like I did it was the way bigger issue than I initially thought I

bigger issue than I initially thought I

bigger issue than I initially thought I came in contact with this one patient

came in contact with this one patient

came in contact with this one patient let’s call him Mike Mike is one of many

let’s call him Mike Mike is one of many

let’s call him Mike Mike is one of many that hurts too much and is in constant

that hurts too much and is in constant

that hurts too much and is in constant pain his doctor prescribes him six shots

pain his doctor prescribes him six shots

pain his doctor prescribes him six shots of morphine a day see I didn’t get any

of morphine a day see I didn’t get any

of morphine a day see I didn’t get any reaction so we got to put this in with

reaction so we got to put this in with

reaction so we got to put this in with err perspective in the Vietnam War when

err perspective in the Vietnam War when

err perspective in the Vietnam War when a soldier was so badly wounded

a soldier was so badly wounded

a soldier was so badly wounded they wanted to give that soldier with

they wanted to give that soldier with

they wanted to give that soldier with peaceful death he had no chance

peaceful death he had no chance

peaceful death he had no chance they’ve administered double dose of

they’ve administered double dose of

they’ve administered double dose of morphine to give that soldier a peaceful

morphine to give that soldier a peaceful

morphine to give that soldier a peaceful death mic is administered six doses a

death mic is administered six doses a

death mic is administered six doses a day six doses they forget it in the past

day six doses they forget it in the past

day six doses they forget it in the past decade shows that incident of heroin

decade shows that incident of heroin

decade shows that incident of heroin initiation was nineteen times higher

initiation was nineteen times higher

initiation was nineteen times higher amongst those who report this prior

amongst those who report this prior

amongst those who report this prior prescription on pain medication these

prescription on pain medication these

prescription on pain medication these opioids have the highest risk of

opioids have the highest risk of

opioids have the highest risk of addiction and it’s as high as one out of

addiction and it’s as high as one out of

addiction and it’s as high as one out of four in addition to that you have major

four in addition to that you have major

four in addition to that you have major mood swings

mood swings

mood swings sometimes psychotic and they’re also a

sometimes psychotic and they’re also a

sometimes psychotic and they’re also a major contributor to premature deaths

major contributor to premature deaths

major contributor to premature deaths street drugs like heroin cocaine

street drugs like heroin cocaine

street drugs like heroin cocaine methamphetamine combined the three big

methamphetamine combined the three big

methamphetamine combined the three big bad ones are responsible for 39 percent

bad ones are responsible for 39 percent

bad ones are responsible for 39 percent of death due to overdose prescription

of death due to overdose prescription

of death due to overdose prescription painkillers are responsible for 45%

globally we’re talking about a quarter

globally we’re talking about a quarter million deaths each year that’s six

million deaths each year that’s six

million deaths each year that’s six hundred and twenty three people dying

hundred and twenty three people dying

hundred and twenty three people dying every day due to prescription painkiller

every day due to prescription painkiller

every day due to prescription painkiller overdose we’ve even lost celebrities to

overdose we’ve even lost celebrities to

overdose we’ve even lost celebrities to this problem most recently Prince

this problem most recently Prince

this problem most recently Prince Michael Jackson and let’s not forget

Michael Jackson and let’s not forget

Michael Jackson and let’s not forget miss Marilyn Monroe and Bruce Lee the

data shows us that migraine can be

data shows us that migraine can be extremely painful and worked as a

extremely painful and worked as a

extremely painful and worked as a gateway to opioid abuse the data also

gateway to opioid abuse the data also

gateway to opioid abuse the data also tells us that migraine is a very costly

tells us that migraine is a very costly

tells us that migraine is a very costly illness for the patient workplace and

illness for the patient workplace and

illness for the patient workplace and society the results got me asking is the

society the results got me asking is the

society the results got me asking is the way chronic pain is being treated today

way chronic pain is being treated today

way chronic pain is being treated today actually creating more addicts and how

actually creating more addicts and how

actually creating more addicts and how can technology be used to address this

can technology be used to address this

can technology be used to address this problem in a groundbreaking way because

problem in a groundbreaking way because

problem in a groundbreaking way because clearly throwing drugs at it is only

clearly throwing drugs at it is only

clearly throwing drugs at it is only creating more problems we need to look

creating more problems we need to look

creating more problems we need to look at the root cause of this issue and

at the root cause of this issue and

at the root cause of this issue and address it at that stage research

address it at that stage research

address it at that stage research suggested that we should address three

suggested that we should address three

suggested that we should address three problems we need to act before an attack

problems we need to act before an attack

problems we need to act before an attack to shorten the pain duration

to shorten the pain duration

to shorten the pain duration and avoid painkiller supplementation the

and avoid painkiller supplementation the

and avoid painkiller supplementation the best way to achieve that would be to

best way to achieve that would be to

best way to achieve that would be to predict the migraine attack migraine has

predict the migraine attack migraine has

predict the migraine attack migraine has quite good medication the problem is

quite good medication the problem is

quite good medication the problem is taking that medication in time what is

taking that medication in time what is

taking that medication in time what is traditionally done today is you keep a

traditionally done today is you keep a

traditionally done today is you keep a migraine Journal and try to maintain

migraine Journal and try to maintain

migraine Journal and try to maintain some sort of control over your headaches

some sort of control over your headaches

some sort of control over your headaches you register the strength of pain where

you register the strength of pain where

you register the strength of pain where the pain resides and measures taken and

the pain resides and measures taken and

the pain resides and measures taken and as additional info you might note what

as additional info you might note what

as additional info you might note what the weather was like stress levels and

the weather was like stress levels and

the weather was like stress levels and so on after you register a dozen or so

so on after you register a dozen or so

so on after you register a dozen or so attacks you should you might start to

attacks you should you might start to

attacks you should you might start to see a pattern form based on that you

see a pattern form based on that you

see a pattern form based on that you should be able to see the right

should be able to see the right

should be able to see the right conditions for your next migraine attack

conditions for your next migraine attack

conditions for your next migraine attack but with so many triggers that might be

but with so many triggers that might be

but with so many triggers that might be a problem we all live busy lives most of

a problem we all live busy lives most of

a problem we all live busy lives most of us are not walking around looking for

us are not walking around looking for

us are not walking around looking for signs for our next headache fortunately

signs for our next headache fortunately

signs for our next headache fortunately most of migraine attacks are triggered

most of migraine attacks are triggered

most of migraine attacks are triggered by weather related values these values

by weather related values these values

by weather related values these values are already being registered today by

are already being registered today by

are already being registered today by different weather platforms having heart

different weather platforms having heart

different weather platforms having heart rate and stress we’re covering almost

rate and stress we’re covering almost

rate and stress we’re covering almost all the major migraine triggers the rest

all the major migraine triggers the rest

all the major migraine triggers the rest is smells and things you get to drink

is smells and things you get to drink

is smells and things you get to drink but you quickly avoid those on your own

but you quickly avoid those on your own

but you quickly avoid those on your own since they already give you headaches so

since they already give you headaches so

since they already give you headaches so we have a database with all this with

we have a database with all this with

we have a database with all this with all this weather related triggers and a

all this weather related triggers and a

all this weather related triggers and a way to predict the future future value

way to predict the future future value

way to predict the future future value of these triggers in advance it’s not

of these triggers in advance it’s not

of these triggers in advance it’s not magic it just called weather forecast

magic it just called weather forecast

magic it just called weather forecast and we all walk around with computers in

and we all walk around with computers in

and we all walk around with computers in our pockets that are connected to the

our pockets that are connected to the

our pockets that are connected to the cloud with cloud computing plus our

cloud with cloud computing plus our

cloud with cloud computing plus our smart phones we now have a device to

smart phones we now have a device to

smart phones we now have a device to calculate and run our learning algorithm

calculate and run our learning algorithm

calculate and run our learning algorithm on the final piece to this puzzle is

on the final piece to this puzzle is

on the final piece to this puzzle is knowing when an attack occurs the user

knowing when an attack occurs the user

knowing when an attack occurs the user supplies that info with one push of a

supplies that info with one push of a

supplies that info with one push of a button when the headache starts when the

button when the headache starts when the

button when the headache starts when the pain is over the user registers an

pain is over the user registers an

pain is over the user registers an aftermath log as mentioned earlier these

aftermath log as mentioned earlier these

aftermath log as mentioned earlier these are the additional info more like

are the additional info more like

are the additional info more like strength of pain where the pain resides

strength of pain where the pain resides

strength of pain where the pain resides and measures taken after the user

and measures taken after the user

and measures taken after the user registers a few attacks the system

registers a few attacks the system

registers a few attacks the system starts to form a personal pain pattern

starts to form a personal pain pattern

starts to form a personal pain pattern for that user this is an individual

for that user this is an individual

for that user this is an individual unique pain pattern for you and the

unique pain pattern for you and the

unique pain pattern for you and the triggers your body reacted the data is

triggers your body reacted the data is

triggers your body reacted the data is registered registered anonymous

registered registered anonymous

registered registered anonymous and no personal information is said we

and no personal information is said we

and no personal information is said we believe that all system systems might

believe that all system systems might

believe that all system systems might get hacked and we will only register

get hacked and we will only register

get hacked and we will only register what is needed and personal and

what is needed and personal and

what is needed and personal and information for us to do what we do is

information for us to do what we do is

information for us to do what we do is not needed anyways back to the system

not needed anyways back to the system

not needed anyways back to the system the system will then look for similar

the system will then look for similar

the system will then look for similar patterns in future weather forecasts for

patterns in future weather forecasts for

patterns in future weather forecasts for the users location by the way when a

the users location by the way when a

the users location by the way when a similar pattern is detected the system

similar pattern is detected the system

similar pattern is detected the system will then alert the user for the right

will then alert the user for the right

will then alert the user for the right conditions for a migraine attack up to

conditions for a migraine attack up to

conditions for a migraine attack up to 24 hours in advance for those who have

24 hours in advance for those who have

24 hours in advance for those who have fitbit’s smartwatches and gadgets like

fitbit’s smartwatches and gadgets like

fitbit’s smartwatches and gadgets like that we can also measure heart rate and

that we can also measure heart rate and

that we can also measure heart rate and stress levels as well so this is what

stress levels as well so this is what

stress levels as well so this is what goes into predicting an attack but what

goes into predicting an attack but what

goes into predicting an attack but what does that really do for us to start with

does that really do for us to start with

does that really do for us to start with we can be aware and be prepared to take

we can be aware and be prepared to take

we can be aware and be prepared to take them to take the right medication and

them to take the right medication and

them to take the right medication and here’s the kicker at the right time by

here’s the kicker at the right time by

here’s the kicker at the right time by taking migraines medication at the right

taking migraines medication at the right

taking migraines medication at the right time

time

time you get optimal effect out of that

you get optimal effect out of that

you get optimal effect out of that medication this way we decrease or even

medication this way we decrease or even

medication this way we decrease or even remove the need for painkiller

remove the need for painkiller

remove the need for painkiller supplementation avoiding the path that

supplementation avoiding the path that

supplementation avoiding the path that might lead to addiction and painkiller

might lead to addiction and painkiller

might lead to addiction and painkiller abuse knowing 24 hours in advance also

abuse knowing 24 hours in advance also

abuse knowing 24 hours in advance also introduces predictability in a

introduces predictability in a

introduces predictability in a surprising illness

surprising illness

surprising illness this opens previously closed doors to

this opens previously closed doors to

this opens previously closed doors to save migraines financial burden on

save migraines financial burden on

save migraines financial burden on society and on the workplace you can now

society and on the workplace you can now

society and on the workplace you can now for instance up to have home office and

for instance up to have home office and

for instance up to have home office and work in your own pace on a migraine day

work in your own pace on a migraine day

work in your own pace on a migraine day instead of being 100% absent from work

instead of being 100% absent from work

instead of being 100% absent from work studies also show that pain you’re

studies also show that pain you’re

studies also show that pain you’re expecting is less painful to the body

expecting is less painful to the body

expecting is less painful to the body then the same strength of pain that

then the same strength of pain that

then the same strength of pain that surprises you by registering where and

surprises you by registering where and

surprises you by registering where and what triggers an attack what medication

what triggers an attack what medication

what triggers an attack what medication works and what doesn’t we are also

works and what doesn’t we are also

works and what doesn’t we are also gathering valuable data that will result

gathering valuable data that will result

gathering valuable data that will result in better medication and understanding

in better medication and understanding

in better medication and understanding of this illness and we have a simple way

of this illness and we have a simple way

of this illness and we have a simple way of recording our attacks simple enough

of recording our attacks simple enough

of recording our attacks simple enough that even my grandmother can use it and

that even my grandmother can use it and

that even my grandmother can use it and have the same perks as the younger

have the same perks as the younger

have the same perks as the younger generation if you’re not sure that if

generation if you’re not sure that if

generation if you’re not sure that if you what are those people that have

you what are those people that have

you what are those people that have headaches often but you’re not sure if

headaches often but you’re not sure if

headaches often but you’re not sure if it is migraine or not you can register

it is migraine or not you can register

it is migraine or not you can register these attacks these are stored in a log

these attacks these are stored in a log

these attacks these are stored in a log that we created with the help of

that we created with the help of

that we created with the help of physicians

physicians

physicians we’ll help the doctors make better and

we’ll help the doctors make better and

we’ll help the doctors make better and more informed decisions regarding your

more informed decisions regarding your

more informed decisions regarding your headaches we’ve also discovered that the

headaches we’ve also discovered that the

headaches we’ve also discovered that the same triggers apply for other

same triggers apply for other

same triggers apply for other weather-related illnesses like

weather-related illnesses like

weather-related illnesses like fibromyalgia multiple sclerosis and even

fibromyalgia multiple sclerosis and even

fibromyalgia multiple sclerosis and even pollen allergy so we’ve designed an app

pollen allergy so we’ve designed an app

pollen allergy so we’ve designed an app that is made for migraine and we have

that is made for migraine and we have

that is made for migraine and we have great feed that can very promising

great feed that can very promising

great feed that can very promising results for this app and we’re currently

results for this app and we’re currently

results for this app and we’re currently working on the virgin’s for fibromyalgia

working on the virgin’s for fibromyalgia

working on the virgin’s for fibromyalgia multiple sclerosis and even panel energy

multiple sclerosis and even panel energy

multiple sclerosis and even panel energy so this is what we were using this

so this is what we were using this

so this is what we were using this prediction algorithm on but there’s so

prediction algorithm on but there’s so

prediction algorithm on but there’s so much more that can be done with this

much more that can be done with this

much more that can be done with this tool we believe that it can be

tool we believe that it can be

tool we believe that it can be implemented in systems to make it to

implemented in systems to make it to

implemented in systems to make it to make the quality of life better and even

make the quality of life better and even

make the quality of life better and even a safer world I’ll give you an example

a safer world I’ll give you an example

a safer world I’ll give you an example could we use technology like this to

could we use technology like this to

could we use technology like this to predict when a driver is about to have

predict when a driver is about to have

predict when a driver is about to have road rage could we implement this in our

road rage could we implement this in our

road rage could we implement this in our vehicles and have the vehicle pull aside

vehicles and have the vehicle pull aside

vehicles and have the vehicle pull aside until the driver is calm further down

until the driver is calm further down

until the driver is calm further down the line in the future could be even

the line in the future could be even

the line in the future could be even predict criminal behavior with

predict criminal behavior with

predict criminal behavior with technology like this we believe that we

technology like this we believe that we

technology like this we believe that we can and we encourage you to explore new

can and we encourage you to explore new

can and we encourage you to explore new ways to do this we’ve taken the first

ways to do this we’ve taken the first

ways to do this we’ve taken the first step and we invite you to take the next

step and we invite you to take the next

step and we invite you to take the next thank you for listening to me

thank you for listening to me

thank you for listening to me [Applause]

”

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