[Applause]
[Music]
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hello and the valley reflects with voice over
future of democracy
How is it going to be in 30 days?
but first I was going to do with you a
that it is difficult for them to imagine a party
know someone will always come in the future
but how I
our reaction is more or less this saying
and try to get out of the conversion more hurriedly
but I thought your speaker
Insist rainbow can not see everything in the
future but I can predict who will
win elections and free governments
in three states united kingdom
united and online
however as I am disputing the voice and
curiosity then to this unexpected
living in the political future
I ‘m in the UK and I ‘m going to win the
labor
[Music]
the United States will win the
republicans won a market or that one
imagine what yours and think and
mainly tell your unexpected
fortune teller
these predictions are nothing special
in fact is that looking at these
predictions in abstract terms
they are in fact quite
extraordinary
because in these
three countries there are many parties that
votes in the last elections of the kingdom
have competed for more than four years
part of the US lists was
a little less 25 and a drop of 30
but still reduce the range of
potential winners of 25 2 is not
easy as more than more than 400
matches and sights like in uk
statistics are probabilities
I could quoted the outcome of
elections in this country by choosing only
two parties in each one left in the country
a degree of bamboo and nothing sociable
it is easier to cite four numbers and
a star in the long Euromillions in
28 it is easier perhaps not migrants and
if someone in a provincial party
correctly four numbers and one
star of the Euromillions
I think I wanted to study a lot.
impressed by what the
happen here that the living to know
predict what lies behind this
unexpected reality of the
video that the government is doing is
basically describe the systems
supporters of this text countries
What are systems practicality systems
are the interactions between the
parts
I ‘m going to give a compression that helps
explain what they are more concretely and
helps explain what the difference is
party systems and parties
politicians
so I consider in a car and a car
tayo a property in the central that is
ability to move independently
right on your engine phase your other
own self- name property 9
imagine and creeds ride scavo think
think of a garage
if this is what I had to do to
to prepare this interest of counting edit
the wheels are turned upside down because
is that is yellow and is not soon to
Aiea accept to think that
so if on the one hand we have all
parts of the car but we no longer have a
because you’re celebrating
the piece no longer has that property
central power not to see autonomously
[Music]
we only have one car when these parts
are in relation but with the others are
humiliated when other euro
are in interaction with each other and
therefore a car is a system and the
parts are the parts that make up the
system but the system goes there in the
shares have something more than parts one
party system is with our
automobile is composed of the interactions
between the various parties and the parties
are the parts that make up this system
from the party system that was
with the feminine and the predictions of a
in partisan systems to various
interactions
but there is one that is central which is condition
for leadership in government
typically this condition providence of the
government structures there are around two
parties some cases between the two
political blocks
what the saw purposes was basically
describe this central interaction in the
three countries and in making this description
of this central interaction that is who
competes in government I got the
because these systems
supporters of the uk and states
United
albania are party systems
build institutionalized sides we
say in political science and when
constructed by being institutionalized
only you were not foreseeable and the
It will be unpredictable that these
premonitions of our living
statistically stable in more
really trivial really something that
anyone who knows the policy
this text is what I wanted to
Imagine in crisis meet this
incident not now but 20 years ago
It will be very different from the
government fall that will not go if we
to find a resident in 1997 would have
the seer would be able to do this type
predictions for many more countries
could provide
who will win and who will lead the
government after the next elections
already in countries like spain italy ireland
and greece is the difference between many
others and could make these predictions
because these party systems are not
to be predictable in 2017 and
systems are no longer
predictable
now it’s necessary to be serious about who’s going
win
I will not be able to get into the whole story.
these countries but in the event of
reference also the parties
that party forces have
dominated French politics 58 you
basically last elections not even
managed to reach the second round of
elections five years ago here what
happened now is totally
unthinkable
honestly neither emanuel himself in
with which I wanted to achieve what I
happened because what what what ever
matters is that it is the means that
upcoming elections in countries like Spain
How are you, france, and are you?
unforeseeable we do not know what goes
happen we do not know who will win
we do not know who will govern and what kind
government will arise after I had to
which has consequences to explain
Because when we talk about growth, we are
to speak essentially democracy
partisan
We are talking about party democracy.
it’s because
of the democratic process, we citizens
drogamos in the elected representatives is
ability to govern , leaving behind
the public policies that these
governments do not adopt reflect the
our interests and preferences
only that this link of citizens to the
representatives is not directly
by parties that the vehicle is so
that there is a phrase that certainly already
have listened more than once
crystal growing can not be partly
when you look at this instance
In this context there are two
republic
one is a pessimistic view of the vision
pessimistic make the party will gather
fish cup and this cup is in the emphasis
was empty because with this company
will show us how to watch the emergence
of new parties
many gods populist parties and
radicals
we are witnessing a growing
fragmentation and fragmentation
party and this instability sets in
causes the proper functioning of the
democracy because the party system is
crucial to the functioning of the
democracy and in cases where the system
party is not stable is not
institutionalized the functioning of the
democracy and affected in the limit is
survival of democracy
is called into question by an important
study is difficult to maintain the
modern mass democracy
leave the party system
institutionalized there is a view
optimistic and optimistic view
look at the same cup they ne not the cup
it is in the range that this vision dijk and that
basically it is true that we have in
to instruct is wrong with the old
sharing systems are under
even the partisan systems of the kingdom
united to nerd united states although not
have begun with other countries but
It is true that this is where we are
a phase 13 selma makes one type of system
institutionalized partisan for the
another during the transition
but when you used it but you need to go back to
normality
which of these scenarios will occur
soon
I’m not psychic I do not know the answer
now I do not know the answer out of anyone
depends on the response of the
democracy we look at what is
at the level of parties and
party systems and think that it is
cause it is not based on systems
partisans and what is social has also
this is to be the sharing system
books that is not this is not just
this is true that
parties and parties are very
important that there are no parties
democracy
however it is important to remember that it is not
only with
that partisan democracy is
important but the party crisis is not
tolerance grew and so is that
which will determine the future of
democracy
I would say that you go through this sphere a lot
extra partisan for what we
we did not only in but also
out reminds those I systems
supporters to cars a car
will take into account the context
where it is inserted
if I put here a wall or
barrier
a letter is to pass by here will not have
Thought album kreol your crime and so
The car can move but can
within their context and the
party systems is the same thing
can participate
it is also very important where
have time to guide systems
partisans for more virtuous ways
and former index futures which was 80
As you know in this movie the first
mj original the future
the umar hero will get in the car
Your scientist friend.
and goes to the I thought of May 1985 in
1955 and the film is called Return to the
future because then you can achieve
back 5585 has got cds to the future
we are telling you this because to prepare
This is this triple touch for the first time.
The true meaning of this film has
to admit that ten years ago when I saw
the first time you had there is not
Weird this ball but now it seems like
would be true 00 cent and dressed in this
the film making machine is in 1955 and
what I do in 1955 determines is
that will be your future not just the
veil individually marty mcfly the future
of your family
the future of your city in 85 total
depending on what you are doing with art
1955 and ump
the movie is saying is that actually
we are all a personal machine
we are all is finishing our
We did not have to get into a car in the future.
to go back to the past to do this
but otherwise the process is the same as
we are defining the future
and the challenge that arises is this is
we think credit grew and we believed
participate actively to achieve
this democracy is small things
big things come out because the purity of
brinker and science
the beauty of democracy is silk the space
allowing the participation of all
within the parties out of
small scale large scale but all
We can participate because I write here.
It’s us every day.
thank you
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