thank you I have one of the best jobs in the world
the world
the world and I’ve been doing it for 30 years
and I’ve been doing it for 30 years
and I’ve been doing it for 30 years people will send us and there’s 450 of
people will send us and there’s 450 of
people will send us and there’s 450 of us at the Virginia Tech Transportation
us at the Virginia Tech Transportation
us at the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute people send us their cars and
Institute people send us their cars and
Institute people send us their cars and let us test them and try to figure out
let us test them and try to figure out
let us test them and try to figure out how they work and when they won’t work
how they work and when they won’t work
how they work and when they won’t work what the unintended consequences are
what the unintended consequences are
what the unintended consequences are we’ve been doing this for 30 years we
we’ve been doing this for 30 years we
we’ve been doing this for 30 years we work with 100 sponsors 14 of the car
work with 100 sponsors 14 of the car
work with 100 sponsors 14 of the car manufacturers many suppliers to do this
manufacturers many suppliers to do this
manufacturers many suppliers to do this it’s a fantastic job the other reason I
it’s a fantastic job the other reason I
it’s a fantastic job the other reason I have a really great job as I’m getting
have a really great job as I’m getting
have a really great job as I’m getting older you can tell by my beard I’m
older you can tell by my beard I’m
older you can tell by my beard I’m almost 60 that means I can say pretty
almost 60 that means I can say pretty
almost 60 that means I can say pretty much whatever I want and in addition to
much whatever I want and in addition to
much whatever I want and in addition to that I have a great job because I have
that I have a great job because I have
that I have a great job because I have tenure which means I can absolutely say
tenure which means I can absolutely say
tenure which means I can absolutely say whatever I want so what I’m going to
whatever I want so what I’m going to
whatever I want so what I’m going to tell you today is what we all believe is
tell you today is what we all believe is
tell you today is what we all believe is a revolution from media from you know
a revolution from media from you know
a revolution from media from you know partnerships created every day and and
partnerships created every day and and
partnerships created every day and and and amazing things happening but I would
and amazing things happening but I would
and amazing things happening but I would from my humble point of view it it’s
from my humble point of view it it’s
from my humble point of view it it’s really more of an evolution because
really more of an evolution because
really more of an evolution because we’ve been doing this so for so long
so what we really need to ask ourselves
so what we really need to ask ourselves is when autonomous vehicle technology
is when autonomous vehicle technology
is when autonomous vehicle technology will be nearly perfect and as I’ll talk
will be nearly perfect and as I’ll talk
will be nearly perfect and as I’ll talk about in a few minutes it needs to be
about in a few minutes it needs to be
about in a few minutes it needs to be nearly perfect and you know there’s a
nearly perfect and you know there’s a
nearly perfect and you know there’s a lot of Advocates to say it’s already
lot of Advocates to say it’s already
lot of Advocates to say it’s already there
there
there you know we’re killing thirty seven
you know we’re killing thirty seven
you know we’re killing thirty seven thousand plus people a year on our
thousand plus people a year on our
thousand plus people a year on our roadways we really need to get this out
roadways we really need to get this out
roadways we really need to get this out as soon as possible those are all good
as soon as possible those are all good
as soon as possible those are all good points that need to be considered but it
points that need to be considered but it
points that need to be considered but it really needs to be nearly perfect
really needs to be nearly perfect
really needs to be nearly perfect because you’re not going to get in a
because you’re not going to get in a
because you’re not going to get in a robotic taxi if you have 15,000
robotic taxi if you have 15,000
robotic taxi if you have 15,000 fatalities occurring with robotic taxes
fatalities occurring with robotic taxes
fatalities occurring with robotic taxes you’re just not going to accept that so
you’re just not going to accept that so
you’re just not going to accept that so when will it be nearly perfect
when will it be nearly perfect
when will it be nearly perfect technology experts say between three and
technology experts say between three and
technology experts say between three and ten years at V TTI we think probably
ten years at V TTI we think probably
ten years at V TTI we think probably five years from now it’ll be nearly
five years from now it’ll be nearly
five years from now it’ll be nearly perfect that doesn’t mean you’re not
perfect that doesn’t mean you’re not
perfect that doesn’t mean you’re not gonna see it you’re gonna see it in
gonna see it you’re gonna see it in
gonna see it you’re gonna see it in really kind of limited operations and
really kind of limited operations and
really kind of limited operations and I’ll talk about that also in a few
I’ll talk about that also in a few
I’ll talk about that also in a few minutes so it’s really going to take
minutes so it’s really going to take
minutes so it’s really going to take five years before it gets there now you
five years before it gets there now you
five years before it gets there now you also have to keep in mind that we’ve
also have to keep in mind that we’ve
also have to keep in mind that we’ve been we’ve been testing automated
been we’ve been testing automated
been we’ve been testing automated technology for 20 years you know you
technology for 20 years you know you
technology for 20 years you know you heard about automatic electronic braking
heard about automatic electronic braking
heard about automatic electronic braking we started testing that 20 years ago and
we started testing that 20 years ago and
we started testing that 20 years ago and so what that means is it takes
so what that means is it takes
so what that means is it takes a great deal of time for things to get
a great deal of time for things to get
a great deal of time for things to get deployed and so we started testing
deployed and so we started testing
deployed and so we started testing automated braking over 20 years ago it
automated braking over 20 years ago it
automated braking over 20 years ago it became available for the first time in
became available for the first time in
became available for the first time in the US and in 2013 and if you as you see
the US and in 2013 and if you as you see
the US and in 2013 and if you as you see our friends from the Insurance Institute
our friends from the Insurance Institute
our friends from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety they predict that
for Highway Safety they predict that
for Highway Safety they predict that there will be 50 percent deployment of
there will be 50 percent deployment of
there will be 50 percent deployment of this system by 2026
this system by 2026
this system by 2026 and if you follow that the chart up 90
and if you follow that the chart up 90
and if you follow that the chart up 90 percent deployment by 2040 you know that
percent deployment by 2040 you know that
percent deployment by 2040 you know that that’s a ways away and you’ve got to
that’s a ways away and you’ve got to
that’s a ways away and you’ve got to understand that this technology is
understand that this technology is
understand that this technology is accepted by everybody the car
accepted by everybody the car
accepted by everybody the car manufacturers made a voluntary standard
manufacturers made a voluntary standard
manufacturers made a voluntary standard to get this on all cars within five
to get this on all cars within five
to get this on all cars within five years so this is about the fastest that
years so this is about the fastest that
years so this is about the fastest that you can deploy something and get it
you can deploy something and get it
you can deploy something and get it through the fleet that’s something to
through the fleet that’s something to
through the fleet that’s something to consider what is the shortest time to
consider what is the shortest time to
consider what is the shortest time to deploy technology well about 50% of
deploy technology well about 50% of
deploy technology well about 50% of vehicles you’ll see with substantial
vehicles you’ll see with substantial
vehicles you’ll see with substantial automation in about 13 years after it’s
automation in about 13 years after it’s
automation in about 13 years after it’s perfect assume nothing else bad goes
perfect assume nothing else bad goes
perfect assume nothing else bad goes goes wrong and about 90% in 27 years so
goes wrong and about 90% in 27 years so
goes wrong and about 90% in 27 years so it’s a little ways away one of the
it’s a little ways away one of the
it’s a little ways away one of the things you have to consider that these
things you have to consider that these
things you have to consider that these systems might not be deployed even that
systems might not be deployed even that
systems might not be deployed even that fast because there’s a number of factors
fast because there’s a number of factors
fast because there’s a number of factors that are involved you know trust in
that are involved you know trust in
that are involved you know trust in automation and and the desired own and
automation and and the desired own and
automation and and the desired own and automated vehicle is relatively flat
automated vehicle is relatively flat
automated vehicle is relatively flat over the last few years people talk
over the last few years people talk
over the last few years people talk about Millennials don’t want to even own
about Millennials don’t want to even own
about Millennials don’t want to even own cars anymore they just want to do
cars anymore they just want to do
cars anymore they just want to do rideshare and things like that but
rideshare and things like that but
rideshare and things like that but Millennials and everybody else has been
Millennials and everybody else has been
Millennials and everybody else has been buying cars at a very brisk pace
buying cars at a very brisk pace
buying cars at a very brisk pace manually driven cars the last few years
manually driven cars the last few years
manually driven cars the last few years as the economy’s gotten better and you
as the economy’s gotten better and you
as the economy’s gotten better and you know in addition to that you know we
know in addition to that you know we
know in addition to that you know we hear about uber and lyft and things like
hear about uber and lyft and things like
hear about uber and lyft and things like that so maybe we we don’t need cars you
that so maybe we we don’t need cars you
that so maybe we we don’t need cars you can use car share ride share all of
can use car share ride share all of
can use car share ride share all of those things and they’re tremendous
those things and they’re tremendous
those things and they’re tremendous services but you have to keep in mind
services but you have to keep in mind
services but you have to keep in mind that they are less than point two
that they are less than point two
that they are less than point two percent of all the troops in the US even
percent of all the troops in the US even
percent of all the troops in the US even despite their tremendous success so it’s
despite their tremendous success so it’s
despite their tremendous success so it’s it’s gonna be a while but the biggest
it’s gonna be a while but the biggest
it’s gonna be a while but the biggest factor is risk perception and risk
factor is risk perception and risk
factor is risk perception and risk perception is how risky you think
perception is how risky you think
perception is how risky you think something is and so
something is and so
something is and so what what that means to you is there is
what what that means to you is there is
what what that means to you is there is an actual risk associated with doing
an actual risk associated with doing
an actual risk associated with doing something and then your perception
something and then your perception
something and then your perception thereof and people are sometimes really
thereof and people are sometimes really
thereof and people are sometimes really terrible about judging actual risk you
terrible about judging actual risk you
terrible about judging actual risk you know it examples include commercial
know it examples include commercial
know it examples include commercial airline safety where there’s a real fear
airline safety where there’s a real fear
airline safety where there’s a real fear of seating control over a situation most
of seating control over a situation most
of seating control over a situation most people realize that flying commercially
people realize that flying commercially
people realize that flying commercially is safer than driving a car if you did a
is safer than driving a car if you did a
is safer than driving a car if you did a survey of the US today they would say
survey of the US today they would say
survey of the US today they would say it’s twice as safe and but in reality if
it’s twice as safe and but in reality if
it’s twice as safe and but in reality if you look at fatalities over a number of
you look at fatalities over a number of
you look at fatalities over a number of years it’s really two thousand times as
years it’s really two thousand times as
years it’s really two thousand times as safe and so that’s an example where the
safe and so that’s an example where the
safe and so that’s an example where the perception of risk is drastically
perception of risk is drastically
perception of risk is drastically different than the actual risk for
different than the actual risk for
different than the actual risk for whatever reason manual driving gets a
whatever reason manual driving gets a
whatever reason manual driving gets a buy when it comes to risk we literally
buy when it comes to risk we literally
buy when it comes to risk we literally kill a hundred people every day on our
kill a hundred people every day on our
kill a hundred people every day on our roadways but people really don’t view it
roadways but people really don’t view it
roadways but people really don’t view it as that risk if you compare that to
as that risk if you compare that to
as that risk if you compare that to shark attacks
shark attacks
shark attacks you know if somebody gets attacked by a
you know if somebody gets attacked by a
you know if somebody gets attacked by a shark off the coast of North Carolina or
shark off the coast of North Carolina or
shark off the coast of North Carolina or someplace it’s it’s a tragic event it’s
someplace it’s it’s a tragic event it’s
someplace it’s it’s a tragic event it’s in the mainstream media for days people
in the mainstream media for days people
in the mainstream media for days people get off the beaches we kill more people
get off the beaches we kill more people
get off the beaches we kill more people in cars every day than sharks have
in cars every day than sharks have
in cars every day than sharks have killed people in the US and the last 200
killed people in the US and the last 200
killed people in the US and the last 200 years that’s the difference in risk
years that’s the difference in risk
years that’s the difference in risk perception so what’s gonna be the
perception so what’s gonna be the
perception so what’s gonna be the difference between perceived and actual
difference between perceived and actual
difference between perceived and actual risk for manual driving there’s lots of
risk for manual driving there’s lots of
risk for manual driving there’s lots of studies over a number of years that show
studies over a number of years that show
studies over a number of years that show that it’s going to be a thousand to one
that it’s going to be a thousand to one
that it’s going to be a thousand to one and so what does that mean to you but
and so what does that mean to you but
and so what does that mean to you but what that means to you is a vs cannot
what that means to you is a vs cannot
what that means to you is a vs cannot crash very often in fact they have to be
crash very often in fact they have to be
crash very often in fact they have to be really nearly perfect and if you do the
really nearly perfect and if you do the
really nearly perfect and if you do the numbers but kill 37,000 people each year
numbers but kill 37,000 people each year
numbers but kill 37,000 people each year manually the risk perception for
manually the risk perception for
manually the risk perception for autonomous vehicles is going to be a
autonomous vehicles is going to be a
autonomous vehicles is going to be a thousand times greater so that means to
thousand times greater so that means to
thousand times greater so that means to be perceived as equally dangerous we can
be perceived as equally dangerous we can
be perceived as equally dangerous we can only kill 37 people a year that’s a
only kill 37 people a year that’s a
only kill 37 people a year that’s a really that’s a really tough problem so
really that’s a really tough problem so
really that’s a really tough problem so another factor to consider is our
another factor to consider is our
another factor to consider is our drivers terrible you just I just told
drivers terrible you just I just told
drivers terrible you just I just told you 30 other people have told you 37,000
you 30 other people have told you 37,000
you 30 other people have told you 37,000 people died on our roadways 94 percent
people died on our roadways 94 percent
people died on our roadways 94 percent due to human error drivers terrible I’d
due to human error drivers terrible I’d
due to human error drivers terrible I’d say yes and no one thing to consider is
say yes and no one thing to consider is
say yes and no one thing to consider is the average driver in the United States
the average driver in the United States
the average driver in the United States has a serious crash every seventeen
has a serious crash every seventeen
has a serious crash every seventeen point nine years serious being police
point nine years serious being police
point nine years serious being police reported a good driver that chooses to
reported a good driver that chooses to
reported a good driver that chooses to drive alert attentive and sober on every
drive alert attentive and sober on every
drive alert attentive and sober on every time they drive reduces that risk by a
time they drive reduces that risk by a
time they drive reduces that risk by a factor of three so what that means to
factor of three so what that means to
factor of three so what that means to you is there’s a substantial portion of
you is there’s a substantial portion of
you is there’s a substantial portion of the population that will go through an
the population that will go through an
the population that will go through an entire lifetime of driving and never
entire lifetime of driving and never
entire lifetime of driving and never crashed never have a serious crash so
crashed never have a serious crash so
crashed never have a serious crash so for moral or ethical reasons or whatever
for moral or ethical reasons or whatever
for moral or ethical reasons or whatever reasons how many times can a v’s crash
reasons how many times can a v’s crash
reasons how many times can a v’s crash to make those people equally as safe an
to make those people equally as safe an
to make those people equally as safe an autonomous car is there in a manual car
zero right if you go through an entire
zero right if you go through an entire lifetime of driving and you never crash
lifetime of driving and you never crash
lifetime of driving and you never crash because you’re a really good driver you
because you’re a really good driver you
because you’re a really good driver you don’t want to get in a robotic taxi that
don’t want to get in a robotic taxi that
don’t want to get in a robotic taxi that kills 15,000 people a year so that’s
kills 15,000 people a year so that’s
kills 15,000 people a year so that’s that’s a big issue there are other
that’s a big issue there are other
that’s a big issue there are other factors to consider you know when when
factors to consider you know when when
factors to consider you know when when you talk about abies and and when
you talk about abies and and when
you talk about abies and and when they’ll be deployed for example the
they’ll be deployed for example the
they’ll be deployed for example the presence of manual driving right so I
presence of manual driving right so I
presence of manual driving right so I told you the reason I didn’t take the
told you the reason I didn’t take the
told you the reason I didn’t take the other chart and go out to a hundred
other chart and go out to a hundred
other chart and go out to a hundred percent is there’s very few things in
percent is there’s very few things in
percent is there’s very few things in the transportation world that are a
the transportation world that are a
the transportation world that are a hundred percent
hundred percent
hundred percent seatbelts have been around for decades
seatbelts have been around for decades
seatbelts have been around for decades if you survey people they know they save
if you survey people they know they save
if you survey people they know they save lives you know we’ve had laws passed
lives you know we’ve had laws passed
lives you know we’ve had laws passed we’ve had public awareness campaigns
we’ve had public awareness campaigns
we’ve had public awareness campaigns we’ve had all kinds of things yet
we’ve had all kinds of things yet
we’ve had all kinds of things yet between 10 and 20 percent of people
between 10 and 20 percent of people
between 10 and 20 percent of people still don’t wear seatbelts automation
still don’t wear seatbelts automation
still don’t wear seatbelts automation the automatic transmission was really
the automatic transmission was really
the automatic transmission was really invented over 70 years ago and it’s been
invented over 70 years ago and it’s been
invented over 70 years ago and it’s been extremely popular a lot of cars have
extremely popular a lot of cars have
extremely popular a lot of cars have automatic transmission but even today 5%
automatic transmission but even today 5%
automatic transmission but even today 5% of the vehicles on the road still have
of the vehicles on the road still have
of the vehicles on the road still have manual transmission
manual transmission
manual transmission and you can still go to a dealership and
and you can still go to a dealership and
and you can still go to a dealership and buy one in many dealerships and a manual
buy one in many dealerships and a manual
buy one in many dealerships and a manual transmission is not more expensive than
transmission is not more expensive than
transmission is not more expensive than an automated transmission yet people
an automated transmission yet people
an automated transmission yet people still buy them that’s because people
still buy them that’s because people
still buy them that’s because people drive for fun they just like to drive
drive for fun they just like to drive
drive for fun they just like to drive but how does that affect the system okay
but how does that affect the system okay
but how does that affect the system okay if you have manual drivers on the road
if you have manual drivers on the road
if you have manual drivers on the road it greatly increases the variability of
it greatly increases the variability of
it greatly increases the variability of what you have to deal with if every
what you have to deal with if every
what you have to deal with if every vehicle on the road were autonomous and
vehicle on the road were autonomous and
vehicle on the road were autonomous and all followed the same rules the air
all followed the same rules the air
all followed the same rules the air problems much simpler problem than with
problems much simpler problem than with
problems much simpler problem than with drivers drivers do not follow rules the
drivers drivers do not follow rules the
drivers drivers do not follow rules the average speed on our interstates is
average speed on our interstates is
average speed on our interstates is greater than the speed limit you see
greater than the speed limit you see
greater than the speed limit you see people doing illegal turns illegal
people doing illegal turns illegal
people doing illegal turns illegal maneuvers all the time we did a study at
maneuvers all the time we did a study at
maneuvers all the time we did a study at Virginia Tech a few years ago which was
Virginia Tech a few years ago which was
Virginia Tech a few years ago which was essentially how many people stopped for
essentially how many people stopped for
essentially how many people stopped for a for a right on red after stop which is
a for a right on red after stop which is
a for a right on red after stop which is the law well the answer is less than 50%
the law well the answer is less than 50%
the law well the answer is less than 50% that doesn’t surprise you too much but
that doesn’t surprise you too much but
that doesn’t surprise you too much but probably what doesn’t surprise you is
probably what doesn’t surprise you is
probably what doesn’t surprise you is the average speed for the people that
the average speed for the people that
the average speed for the people that don’t stop is 11 miles an hour and
don’t stop is 11 miles an hour and
don’t stop is 11 miles an hour and there’s huge variability some people are
there’s huge variability some people are
there’s huge variability some people are up to close to 20 miles an hour and it’s
up to close to 20 miles an hour and it’s
up to close to 20 miles an hour and it’s very hard for autonomous vehicles to
very hard for autonomous vehicles to
very hard for autonomous vehicles to really get to really develop the
really get to really develop the
really get to really develop the intelligence to be able to predict all
intelligence to be able to predict all
intelligence to be able to predict all this human behavior but there will
this human behavior but there will
this human behavior but there will always be manual driving so when will
always be manual driving so when will
always be manual driving so when will autonomous vehicles be deployed well
autonomous vehicles be deployed well
autonomous vehicles be deployed well you’re seeing them now really and it’s
you’re seeing them now really and it’s
you’re seeing them now really and it’s just perhaps not when as much as where
just perhaps not when as much as where
just perhaps not when as much as where you can you can drive hands off feet off
you can you can drive hands off feet off
you can you can drive hands off feet off or at least get both lateral and
or at least get both lateral and
or at least get both lateral and longitudinal control at this point in
longitudinal control at this point in
longitudinal control at this point in five production vehicles and so it’s
five production vehicles and so it’s
five production vehicles and so it’s already happening but what but when is
already happening but what but when is
already happening but what but when is it really going to be perfect enough
it really going to be perfect enough
it really going to be perfect enough where you can watch the movie or take
where you can watch the movie or take
where you can watch the movie or take your eyes off the road not sooner than
your eyes off the road not sooner than
your eyes off the road not sooner than five years for nearly perfect technology
five years for nearly perfect technology
five years for nearly perfect technology if you add to that 13 years for the the
if you add to that 13 years for the the
if you add to that 13 years for the the 50% point in market penetration of
50% point in market penetration of
50% point in market penetration of autonomous vehicles that gets us out to
autonomous vehicles that gets us out to
autonomous vehicles that gets us out to 2035
2035
2035 so by 2035 even though you will have
so by 2035 even though you will have
so by 2035 even though you will have experienced a lot of technology
experienced a lot of technology
experienced a lot of technology whether it’s a robotic taxi in a city or
whether it’s a robotic taxi in a city or
whether it’s a robotic taxi in a city or highway driving or coming later would be
highway driving or coming later would be
highway driving or coming later would be bad weather and rural driving 2035 half
bad weather and rural driving 2035 half
bad weather and rural driving 2035 half the cars on the road will be
the cars on the road will be
the cars on the road will be substantially automated to get to the 90
substantially automated to get to the 90
substantially automated to get to the 90 percent point you got to go out to 20 49
percent point you got to go out to 20 49
percent point you got to go out to 20 49 and so that’s that’s really a long time
and so that’s that’s really a long time
and so that’s that’s really a long time from now and and I can’t emphasize this
from now and and I can’t emphasize this
from now and and I can’t emphasize this enough if we don’t do it right you can
enough if we don’t do it right you can
enough if we don’t do it right you can add five to ten years to those numbers
add five to ten years to those numbers
add five to ten years to those numbers because if they crash if they crash more
because if they crash if they crash more
because if they crash if they crash more than is acceptable governments
than is acceptable governments
than is acceptable governments individuals or they’re not going to
individuals or they’re not going to
individuals or they’re not going to accept the technology and they’re gonna
accept the technology and they’re gonna
accept the technology and they’re gonna slow it down because they’re either not
slow it down because they’re either not
slow it down because they’re either not going to buy it or they’re gonna have to
going to buy it or they’re gonna have to
going to buy it or they’re gonna have to legislate to protect the public and so
legislate to protect the public and so
legislate to protect the public and so that could get you out to 2050 four or
that could get you out to 2050 four or
that could get you out to 2050 four or 2059 and so I’m not I’m not here to try
2059 and so I’m not I’m not here to try
2059 and so I’m not I’m not here to try to about here to try to say that this
to about here to try to say that this
to about here to try to say that this isn’t a great thing it is a tremendous
isn’t a great thing it is a tremendous
isn’t a great thing it is a tremendous thing and I’m not here to say that we
thing and I’m not here to say that we
thing and I’m not here to say that we don’t see the benefits there are
don’t see the benefits there are
don’t see the benefits there are tremendous safety mobility benefits for
tremendous safety mobility benefits for
tremendous safety mobility benefits for disabled populations and underserved
disabled populations and underserved
disabled populations and underserved populations it’s going to be great we
populations it’s going to be great we
populations it’s going to be great we just have to do it right and it’s going
just have to do it right and it’s going
just have to do it right and it’s going to take a while that’s that’s what we do
to take a while that’s that’s what we do
to take a while that’s that’s what we do at the Virginia Tech Transportation
at the Virginia Tech Transportation
at the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute thank you
Institute thank you
Institute thank you [Applause]
”
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