I want to read people’s minds,
I want to know what people really think,
I will try, now,
I see some people thinking, “My God, can he really do that?”
I see someone here thinking, “This is wonderful, French guy
But he speaks English! that’s cool!”
(Laughter)
Well, it’s obvious I do not read minds
But there is something else I can do:
I can make people tell the truth.
I will show you how,
You may not find the point,
You might think, “People always tell the truth.”
So let’s try …
I want you to raise your hands,
If your answer to the next question is yes.
Have you ever stolen office items from your manager?
If yes, raise your hands.
Some of you!
(Laughter)
Well I have another question, it would be appropriate here at university,
We know there are some students here.
Did you cheat on the exam when you were in school?
If yes, please raise your hands.
(Laughter)
Well, I did.
When I was seven, I wrote a word from Gary,
Because I did not remember how to write it.
Now look at me,
I try to make it look small,
I try to look small, if possible, hidden.
And blushing.
Well, this is called shame.
Perhaps, some of you did not raise his hand,
Because he did not want to be ashamed.
Well, we have a lot of those examples,
For example, in political studies many people have not declared
That they will vote for extreme political parties,
We have surprises in election days.
Therefore, study companies correct them because they know that people may lie.
Another example of medical science:
When studying sexually transmitted diseases,
It is important to understand people’s sexual practices,
But you can not observe them directly,
(Laughter)
You can not be in someone’s bed, or someone’s kitchen,
Bathroom or car, or anywhere they can do it.
(Laughter)
So the only way to know is to ask
For example, she asks, “Have you recently practiced unprotected sex?
With a partner once? “
Many studies say such behavior is not reported.
We just do not know.
So imagine that we run a campaign to promote the use of condoms.
In our view, people later report less cases of unprotected sex.
Perhaps they have not changed their behavior, but they simply feel more shameful,
More lies,
We simply do not know.
Surveys are therefore used by governments, scientists, companies,
Many decisions and policies depend on them.
We do not know if people are telling the truth,
We hope they are,
But in fact, we can do more.
We can use truth serum.
I need a volunteer,
I’m not kidding.
I’m not a doctor!
Well, I hold a doctorate, but in economics.
I want to use an economic reality serum,
I will reward you for telling the truth,
Sounds better, does not it?
If people lie because of shame,
We can compensate for this feeling and make them tell the truth,
We can transform the negative feelings of shame,
To good feelings using money.
So, let’s start with a very simple example,
Imagine that I want to know your faith about the weather tomorrow.
Well, we can simply bet on it,
and for example,
If you bet on the rain and I got the opposite bet,
This shows that you think the rain is more likely than I think,
If bets show our beliefs.
Maybe you do it sometimes with people
When you do not agree, “Let’s bet on it.”
This is a way of knowing whether people really believe what they say.
Ask a question and make people bet.
Bets are the tools of economic truth.
But let’s go back to the questions we were interested in cheating
Or, for example, stealing office supplies.
Well, I can not make you bet on it, because you only know if you did it.
I can not reward telling the truth, if you just know if you lie.
So rewarding telling the truth in such cases seems impossible.
Well, there is a way,
All this depends on one main intuition.
Here it is.
There is a link between what you have done and what you think others have done,
It is a well-established phenomenon in psychology.
I will give you some examples
Of the surveys conducted by my students.
A few years ago, one of my students asked fellow students,
If they have ever cheated on an exam,
Specifically, they copied from their neighbor,
He also asked them to predict the rate of cheaters.
I will present these predictions to you,
Depending on whether the people themselves are cheaters or not.
Fraudsters expected 65% of cheaters
Non-cheaters expected only 47% of cheaters
The actual rate was 60%
Another student ran an anonymous survey in a public company,
People are asking if they have ever stolen office supplies.
Who said “yes” that they stole office supplies
Predicted 67% of the “Yes”
While those who said “no”
Expect “yes” answers far less than only 24%
The actual rate was 54%
So we use our own behavior to predict, to guess the behavior of others.
It makes sense to do so,
It makes sense to use the only obvious piece of evidence you have,
yourself.
Obviously we are not stupid, and we do not believe that everyone is like us.
Do not expect the behavior of 100% of people like us
But our expectations are still affected by our behavior.
So I repeat the basic intuition:
There is a link between what you have done and what you think others have done
Cheaters expect cheats more than non cheaters expect
The next step will look magical,
We will turn the main intuition into a truth serum.
Remember that the serum of truth is just a bet.
So here it is
If you say you are a cheat, if you should also bet
That there are cheaters more than expected non-cheaters,
And that’s all more.
Ask a question and let you bet on the answers of others
For example, betting on the rate of cheaters,
Will reveal whether you yourself are a cheat,
Sounds magical, does not it?
Well, the first to create this result,
He is Professor of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (DRAZIN BRILICK)
And published a paper in science in 2004.
It is a very beautiful way but some people may say
It’s a bit complicated,
So I worked and developed my bet version,
If in practice, this means I designed the bets.
The more you bet, the more you take
Depending on your own answer and others’ answers.
So we can make people tell the truth, by asking them questions
And make them bet on the answers of others.
Now I want to end this offer with questions and answers
But because I want to make sure I know the answers,
I will ask myself if you do not mind.
(Laughter)
So, the first question:
How does it work in practice?
Thank you very much, very nice question!
Well, it’s simpler than you think.
Ask questions like in a regular study
Then ask people to bet on the answers of others
Then you connect all the data and calculate how many people have won
This is the sports part.
Then you can reward people or if you want to keep the concealment
Funds can be given to a charity.
This means that recognizing the truth will mean more money for charities,
Which means good work.
If recognizing the truth is a good job.
Second question:
Can I use the economic truth serum?
To know if my wife betrayed me?
Well I’m sorry, but no.
There are two reasons for this:
The first reason, we need to ask the question to more than one person,
I think it could be you only one pair.
The second condition,
People are answering the question
Should not feel any other negative consequences,
Do not feel shame when answering.
So in surveys we try to maintain anonymity
But if you want, we can conduct an anonymous survey
To find out how many people in this room have betrayed their partner before.
Do we do it in the next break?
(Laughter)
Yeah? No?
A final question: Why should we care this way?
Well, that’s a fair question
And I told you we can use a real economic serum
To make people tell the truth.
But we can also motivate participants with it.
In many studies we have to adapt to them there is no reason to be ashamed.
But the questions are just too boring.
You may have this experience in the past,
You are asked to complete the questionnaire, you accept, you are a good citizen.
For the first two questions you think a bit
Then click through the rest
Well, sometimes I do it.
But the problem is that the answers you give
Taken seriously.
A few years ago, I completed a survey like this one month later
The University has implemented a new human resources policy based on the survey,
I thought, “My God, I do not remember
What you responded to. “
So with the serum of economic truth we can reward people for thinking,
To look carefully at their answers.
We say that surveys are used by companies, governments and scientists
And many of us when we decide, for example, who we will vote for.
So with the vaccine of economic truth we can make sure that our decisions
Based on an accurate description of reality.
Not on lies or just on random clicks.
So here, at the University of Erasmus, along with my team,
I am working on developing new and simpler reality serums.
I can not read minds,
But I can make people tell the truth.
thank you.
(clap)
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