[Music] in 2005 the Year Hurricane Katrina
in 2005 the Year Hurricane Katrina
in 2005 the Year Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans the average 48 hour
struck New Orleans the average 48 hour
struck New Orleans the average 48 hour track error for hurricane predictions
track error for hurricane predictions
track error for hurricane predictions was a hundred and ten nautical miles
was a hundred and ten nautical miles
was a hundred and ten nautical miles this means two days before a hurricane
this means two days before a hurricane
this means two days before a hurricane made landfall we could expect the
made landfall we could expect the
made landfall we could expect the prediction for where it would strike to
prediction for where it would strike to
prediction for where it would strike to be wrong by an average 125 statute miles
be wrong by an average 125 statute miles
be wrong by an average 125 statute miles 125 miles is about the difference
125 miles is about the difference
125 miles is about the difference between evacuating New Orleans Louisiana
between evacuating New Orleans Louisiana
between evacuating New Orleans Louisiana and Pensacola Florida in 1990 that error
and Pensacola Florida in 1990 that error
and Pensacola Florida in 1990 that error was 200 miles today it’s about 65 200 to
was 200 miles today it’s about 65 200 to
was 200 miles today it’s about 65 200 to 125 265 in 27 years what’s changed
125 265 in 27 years what’s changed
125 265 in 27 years what’s changed meteorology has gotten better satellites
meteorology has gotten better satellites
meteorology has gotten better satellites have gotten more sophisticated yes
have gotten more sophisticated yes
have gotten more sophisticated yes there’s one particular tool in
there’s one particular tool in
there’s one particular tool in scientists and forecasters bag of tricks
scientists and forecasters bag of tricks
scientists and forecasters bag of tricks it gets exponentially better every year
it gets exponentially better every year
it gets exponentially better every year and perhaps more than anything else has
and perhaps more than anything else has
and perhaps more than anything else has been instrumental to their growing
been instrumental to their growing
been instrumental to their growing capability to make predictions and to
capability to make predictions and to
capability to make predictions and to save lives and it has to do with
save lives and it has to do with
save lives and it has to do with make-believe all over the world today
make-believe all over the world today
make-believe all over the world today there are big powerful supercomputers
there are big powerful supercomputers
there are big powerful supercomputers whose job it is to pretend to be storms
whose job it is to pretend to be storms
whose job it is to pretend to be storms we can see how they’ll move how they’ll
we can see how they’ll move how they’ll
we can see how they’ll move how they’ll strengthen and weaken and every year
strengthen and weaken and every year
strengthen and weaken and every year these machines get bigger and faster and
these machines get bigger and faster and
these machines get bigger and faster and therefore better able to pretend to be
therefore better able to pretend to be
therefore better able to pretend to be those storms technically we call it
those storms technically we call it
those storms technically we call it simulation and modeling but it’s really
simulation and modeling but it’s really
simulation and modeling but it’s really about making the computers pretend and I
about making the computers pretend and I
about making the computers pretend and I know that sounds like a play school kind
know that sounds like a play school kind
know that sounds like a play school kind of thing to say but why use a $5 word
of thing to say but why use a $5 word
of thing to say but why use a $5 word when a 50 cent one will work we make the
when a 50 cent one will work we make the
when a 50 cent one will work we make the computer pretend there’s all sorts of
computer pretend there’s all sorts of
computer pretend there’s all sorts of really interesting things going on in
really interesting things going on in
really interesting things going on in this world that are either too big or
this world that are either too big or
this world that are either too big or too small or too fast or too slow or too
too small or too fast or too slow or too
too small or too fast or too slow or too expensive or too dangerous for us to
expensive or too dangerous for us to
expensive or too dangerous for us to touch with our hands or
touch with our hands or
touch with our hands or watch with our eyes but we can make the
watch with our eyes but we can make the
watch with our eyes but we can make the computer pretend now hurricanes are big
computer pretend now hurricanes are big
computer pretend now hurricanes are big and fast and dangerous
and fast and dangerous
and fast and dangerous how about something small our bodies are
how about something small our bodies are
how about something small our bodies are made up in part of proteins which
made up in part of proteins which
made up in part of proteins which perform many important tasks in order to
perform many important tasks in order to
perform many important tasks in order to function
function
function these proteins first have to assemble
these proteins first have to assemble
these proteins first have to assemble themselves or fold into particular
themselves or fold into particular
themselves or fold into particular shapes now there’s a lot about the
shapes now there’s a lot about the
shapes now there’s a lot about the process of protein folding inside the
process of protein folding inside the
process of protein folding inside the body that we don’t yet understand but we
body that we don’t yet understand but we
body that we don’t yet understand but we do know that when this process goes
do know that when this process goes
do know that when this process goes wrong we can wind up with conditions
wrong we can wind up with conditions
wrong we can wind up with conditions called
called
called protea path ease these are things like
protea path ease these are things like
protea path ease these are things like Huntington’s Parkinson’s Alzheimer’s we
Huntington’s Parkinson’s Alzheimer’s we
Huntington’s Parkinson’s Alzheimer’s we would like to have the ability to watch
would like to have the ability to watch
would like to have the ability to watch these proteins miss fold inside the body
these proteins miss fold inside the body
these proteins miss fold inside the body but that’s not practical now we do
but that’s not practical now we do
but that’s not practical now we do understand most of the physics and
understand most of the physics and
understand most of the physics and chemistry involved so we can make the
chemistry involved so we can make the
chemistry involved so we can make the computer pretend watch the proteins fold
computer pretend watch the proteins fold
computer pretend watch the proteins fold and miss fold inside the computer
and miss fold inside the computer
and miss fold inside the computer simulation watch for the critical moment
simulation watch for the critical moment
simulation watch for the critical moment where things go wrong and use that
where things go wrong and use that
where things go wrong and use that knowledge to suggest drugs that could
knowledge to suggest drugs that could
knowledge to suggest drugs that could help now the rules of this game and the
help now the rules of this game and the
help now the rules of this game and the outcome have to be managed by experts in
outcome have to be managed by experts in
outcome have to be managed by experts in this field biochemists perhaps but it
this field biochemists perhaps but it
this field biochemists perhaps but it gives them an incredible and potentially
gives them an incredible and potentially
gives them an incredible and potentially life-saving capability that they
life-saving capability that they
life-saving capability that they otherwise would not have let’s talk
otherwise would not have let’s talk
otherwise would not have let’s talk about something expensive
about something expensive
about something expensive in 2003 Goodyear the largest American
in 2003 Goodyear the largest American
in 2003 Goodyear the largest American tire maker was in trouble they were
tire maker was in trouble they were
tire maker was in trouble they were falling behind their overseas
falling behind their overseas
falling behind their overseas competitors they had a product cycle
competitors they had a product cycle
competitors they had a product cycle that took three years to go from
that took three years to go from
that took three years to go from inception to market and it was based in
inception to market and it was based in
inception to market and it was based in large part on educated guesswork they
large part on educated guesswork they
large part on educated guesswork they would build tires test how they
would build tires test how they
would build tires test how they performed and importantly they would see
performed and importantly they would see
performed and importantly they would see how they would wear out over time and
how they would wear out over time and
how they would wear out over time and that year they made a key decision stop
that year they made a key decision stop
that year they made a key decision stop doing start pretending they used super
doing start pretending they used super
doing start pretending they used super computers to pretend to be tires watch
computers to pretend to be tires watch
computers to pretend to be tires watch how they performed on pavement on gravel
how they performed on pavement on gravel
how they performed on pavement on gravel on water on sand but most importantly
on water on sand but most importantly
on water on sand but most importantly they used those simulations to predict
they used those simulations to predict
they used those simulations to predict how the tires would age over time and
how the tires would age over time and
how the tires would age over time and the result was that three year cycle
the result was that three year cycle
the result was that three year cycle became a 1 year cycle and building and
became a 1 year cycle and building and
became a 1 year cycle and building and testing tires went from 40 percent of
testing tires went from 40 percent of
testing tires went from 40 percent of their R&D budget to 15 three years later
their R&D budget to 15 three years later
their R&D budget to 15 three years later they posted record profits how about
they posted record profits how about
they posted record profits how about something slow computers can pretend to
something slow computers can pretend to
something slow computers can pretend to be the world too but not yet all of it
be the world too but not yet all of it
be the world too but not yet all of it climate change may be the key issue of
climate change may be the key issue of
climate change may be the key issue of our time and computing can let us see
our time and computing can let us see
our time and computing can let us see how our decisions today impact the
how our decisions today impact the
how our decisions today impact the future we can model the atmosphere and
future we can model the atmosphere and
future we can model the atmosphere and make the computer pretend to be the
make the computer pretend to be the
make the computer pretend to be the decades and centuries that pass as we
decades and centuries that pass as we
decades and centuries that pass as we adjust carbon or methane or ozone or ash
adjust carbon or methane or ozone or ash
adjust carbon or methane or ozone or ash but there’s not yet enough computing
but there’s not yet enough computing
but there’s not yet enough computing power in the world for us to turn as
power in the world for us to turn as
power in the world for us to turn as many of those knobs as quickly and in as
many of those knobs as quickly and in as
many of those knobs as quickly and in as many combinations as we would like but
many combinations as we would like but
many combinations as we would like but we’re on our way and the day will come
we’re on our way and the day will come
we’re on our way and the day will come that the countries of the world will be
that the countries of the world will be
that the countries of the world will be able to come together negotiate climate
able to come together negotiate climate
able to come together negotiate climate treaties armed with computers powerful
treaties armed with computers powerful
treaties armed with computers powerful enough to pretend to be the planet and
enough to pretend to be the planet and
enough to pretend to be the planet and know quickly and confidently what the
know quickly and confidently what the
know quickly and confidently what the decisions they make that day will mean
decisions they make that day will mean
decisions they make that day will mean for the future of the earth a lot of
for the future of the earth a lot of
for the future of the earth a lot of human effort is spent trying to figure
human effort is spent trying to figure
human effort is spent trying to figure out how the world works trying to
out how the world works trying to
out how the world works trying to understand the unknown and faced with
understand the unknown and faced with
understand the unknown and faced with the unknown we have some choices doing
the unknown we have some choices doing
the unknown we have some choices doing is very important but we can also
is very important but we can also
is very important but we can also pretend and this is why computing
pretend and this is why computing
pretend and this is why computing matters at virtually every scale and in
matters at virtually every scale and in
matters at virtually every scale and in every field in fact where I work at the
every field in fact where I work at the
every field in fact where I work at the tandy supercomputing Center we play
tandy supercomputing Center we play
tandy supercomputing Center we play everywhere along this spectrum from
everywhere along this spectrum from
everywhere along this spectrum from helping frontline university researchers
helping frontline university researchers
helping frontline university researchers do basic science to helping transfer
do basic science to helping transfer
do basic science to helping transfer technologies out of the university
technologies out of the university
technologies out of the university research lab into the marketplace to
research lab into the marketplace to
research lab into the marketplace to helping small and mid-sized companies do
helping small and mid-sized companies do
helping small and mid-sized companies do today what Goodyear did 15 years ago but
today what Goodyear did 15 years ago but
today what Goodyear did 15 years ago but it’s not just about big huge million
it’s not just about big huge million
it’s not just about big huge million dollar machines if you recall that
dollar machines if you recall that
dollar machines if you recall that protein folding problem
protein folding problem
protein folding problem I talked about a little bit ago when you
I talked about a little bit ago when you
I talked about a little bit ago when you go home today you can actually join your
go home today you can actually join your
go home today you can actually join your PC or even your phone to a worldwide
PC or even your phone to a worldwide
PC or even your phone to a worldwide network of computers pretending together
network of computers pretending together
network of computers pretending together to fold proteins
to fold proteins
to fold proteins it’s called folding at home and there’s
it’s called folding at home and there’s
it’s called folding at home and there’s a lot of other really worthy projects
a lot of other really worthy projects
a lot of other really worthy projects out there too that I hope you’ll check
out there too that I hope you’ll check
out there too that I hope you’ll check out because when the experts set the
out because when the experts set the
out because when the experts set the rules of the game and let computers play
rules of the game and let computers play
rules of the game and let computers play pretend the results can change the world
pretend the results can change the world
pretend the results can change the world thank you
thank you
thank you [Applause]
[Applause]
[Applause] [Music]
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