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Soccermatics: how maths explains football | David Sumpter | TEDxUppsalaUniversity


so when I was 10 years old I absolutely

so when I was 10 years old I absolutely loved football and more than that I

loved football and more than that I

loved football and more than that I loved Liverpool Football Club this is a

loved Liverpool Football Club this is a

loved Liverpool Football Club this is a picture of me when I was 10

picture of me when I was 10

picture of me when I was 10 I’m the one with a Liverpool shirt on

I’m the one with a Liverpool shirt on

I’m the one with a Liverpool shirt on the cute one with the Scotland strip

the cute one with the Scotland strip

the cute one with the Scotland strip that’s my little brother Colin now while

that’s my little brother Colin now while

that’s my little brother Colin now while I loved football I wasn’t any good you

I loved football I wasn’t any good you

I loved football I wasn’t any good you know that thing where you’re in the

know that thing where you’re in the

know that thing where you’re in the school playground and two people have to

school playground and two people have to

school playground and two people have to pick teams to play against each other

pick teams to play against each other

pick teams to play against each other well I was always the one who was picked

well I was always the one who was picked

well I was always the one who was picked last but there were other things that I

last but there were other things that I

last but there were other things that I loved when I was 10 years old I really

loved when I was 10 years old I really

loved when I was 10 years old I really liked math and I totally loved computers

liked math and I totally loved computers

liked math and I totally loved computers and those other two passions they took

and those other two passions they took

and those other two passions they took me on a wonderful adventure I studied

me on a wonderful adventure I studied

me on a wonderful adventure I studied the mathematics of ant trails showing

the mathematics of ant trails showing

the mathematics of ant trails showing how these small animals can build

how these small animals can build

how these small animals can build massive transport networks I looked at

massive transport networks I looked at

massive transport networks I looked at the algorithms behind how they organized

the algorithms behind how they organized

the algorithms behind how they organized their traffic and how they collect food

their traffic and how they collect food

their traffic and how they collect food I studied the mathematics of fish

I studied the mathematics of fish

I studied the mathematics of fish schools showing how they can escape as

schools showing how they can escape as

schools showing how they can escape as one from a predator despite just

one from a predator despite just

one from a predator despite just interacting with a few nearby neighbors

interacting with a few nearby neighbors

interacting with a few nearby neighbors I studied the mathematics of bird

I studied the mathematics of bird

I studied the mathematics of bird navigation how they interact with each

navigation how they interact with each

navigation how they interact with each other follow each other how they produce

other follow each other how they produce

other follow each other how they produce consensus decisions decide where they’re

consensus decisions decide where they’re

consensus decisions decide where they’re going to fly together

going to fly together

going to fly together I studied our social behavior I looked

I studied our social behavior I looked

I studied our social behavior I looked at how clapping was a contagion how when

at how clapping was a contagion how when

at how clapping was a contagion how when we coordinate our applause after a

we coordinate our applause after a

we coordinate our applause after a seminar or after a TED seminar like this

seminar or after a TED seminar like this

seminar or after a TED seminar like this we can move together and coordinate in a

we can move together and coordinate in a

we can move together and coordinate in a in a very coordinated manner and this

in a very coordinated manner and this

in a very coordinated manner and this mathematical journey I took has led me

mathematical journey I took has led me

mathematical journey I took has led me all around the world to collaborate with

all around the world to collaborate with

all around the world to collaborate with lots of different researchers at

lots of different researchers at

lots of different researchers at different prestigious universities I

different prestigious universities I

different prestigious universities I have the most amazing

have the most amazing

have the most amazing job I get to talk to people about

job I get to talk to people about

job I get to talk to people about different systems and then I get to

different systems and then I get to

different systems and then I get to build mathematical models which help

build mathematical models which help

build mathematical models which help them understand these systems better but

them understand these systems better but

them understand these systems better but the football though I never I never

the football though I never I never

the football though I never I never completely gave up on the football I

completely gave up on the football I

completely gave up on the football I still played with friends still badly I

still played with friends still badly I

still played with friends still badly I watched on television I went to matches

watched on television I went to matches

watched on television I went to matches but I never really saw any connection

but I never really saw any connection

but I never really saw any connection between my interest in football and my

between my interest in football and my

between my interest in football and my interest in research the friends I had

interest in research the friends I had

interest in research the friends I had who were interested in football where

who were interested in football where

who were interested in football where they didn’t really care about ants and

they didn’t really care about ants and

they didn’t really care about ants and fish and all the mathematical models I

fish and all the mathematical models I

fish and all the mathematical models I did so there was no real connection

did so there was no real connection

did so there was no real connection there but then a remarkable thing

there but then a remarkable thing

there but then a remarkable thing happened this this is my son Henry when

happened this this is my son Henry when

happened this this is my son Henry when he was 9 years old he’s playing this is

he was 9 years old he’s playing this is

he was 9 years old he’s playing this is a picture taken from the local newspaper

a picture taken from the local newspaper

a picture taken from the local newspaper he’s playing against boys twice his size

he’s playing against boys twice his size

he’s playing against boys twice his size it turned out that Henry had the talent

it turned out that Henry had the talent

it turned out that Henry had the talent which I lacked so did lots of his

which I lacked so did lots of his

which I lacked so did lots of his friends and I ended up with a bunch of

friends and I ended up with a bunch of

friends and I ended up with a bunch of other enthusiastic dad’s coaching

other enthusiastic dad’s coaching

other enthusiastic dad’s coaching Henry’s team uppsala EF and it was

Henry’s team uppsala EF and it was

Henry’s team uppsala EF and it was really then that I started to think

really then that I started to think

really then that I started to think again about was there a coupling between

again about was there a coupling between

again about was there a coupling between mathematics and football when I was

mathematics and football when I was

mathematics and football when I was training these players I was trying to

training these players I was trying to

training these players I was trying to see if there was mathematics behind it

see if there was mathematics behind it

see if there was mathematics behind it and I found a lot of mathematics in

and I found a lot of mathematics in

and I found a lot of mathematics in football I started with randomness and

football I started with randomness and

football I started with randomness and last-minute changes of fortune I worked

last-minute changes of fortune I worked

last-minute changes of fortune I worked out that about two-thirds of a football

out that about two-thirds of a football

out that about two-thirds of a football match comes down to randomness I looked

match comes down to randomness I looked

match comes down to randomness I looked at vector fields of passing of players

at vector fields of passing of players

at vector fields of passing of players and I could make player forecasts just

and I could make player forecasts just

and I could make player forecasts just like we can make weather forecasts

like we can make weather forecasts

like we can make weather forecasts I talked to Premier League Scouts about

I talked to Premier League Scouts about

I talked to Premier League Scouts about how they could use these forecasts to

how they could use these forecasts to

how they could use these forecasts to pick the players who were best fit into

pick the players who were best fit into

pick the players who were best fit into their team

their team

their team I studied passing and positioning I

I studied passing and positioning I

I studied passing and positioning I found out the best places to take a shot

found out the best places to take a shot

found out the best places to take a shot from and how to make a passing

from and how to make a passing

from and how to make a passing combination

combination

combination I studied shots and goals in terms of

I studied shots and goals in terms of

I studied shots and goals in terms of statistics and probability and worked

statistics and probability and worked

statistics and probability and worked out who was the best

out who was the best

out who was the best Riker in the world I looked at passing

Riker in the world I looked at passing

Riker in the world I looked at passing networks how teams are connected

networks how teams are connected

networks how teams are connected together and managers use these passing

together and managers use these passing

together and managers use these passing networks to scout out the opposition

networks to scout out the opposition

networks to scout out the opposition find which connections are most used and

find which connections are most used and

find which connections are most used and try and break them down and I studied

try and break them down and I studied

try and break them down and I studied the geometry of the game I worked out

the geometry of the game I worked out

the geometry of the game I worked out that Barcelona’s team of 2010/11 created

that Barcelona’s team of 2010/11 created

that Barcelona’s team of 2010/11 created the most beautiful geometry ever seen on

the most beautiful geometry ever seen on

the most beautiful geometry ever seen on a football pitch and I looked at

a football pitch and I looked at

a football pitch and I looked at strategy and game theory and how they

strategy and game theory and how they

strategy and game theory and how they could be used to explain the evolution

could be used to explain the evolution

could be used to explain the evolution the constant changing evolution of

the constant changing evolution of

the constant changing evolution of football strategies and I even studied

football strategies and I even studied

football strategies and I even studied the mathematics behind Latin Ibrahimovic

the mathematics behind Latin Ibrahimovic

the mathematics behind Latin Ibrahimovic is incredible bicycle kick against

is incredible bicycle kick against

is incredible bicycle kick against England there is so much mathematics in

England there is so much mathematics in

England there is so much mathematics in football since I did all of these

football since I did all of these

football since I did all of these analysis I’ve had this amazing

analysis I’ve had this amazing

analysis I’ve had this amazing opportunity to talk to Premier League

opportunity to talk to Premier League

opportunity to talk to Premier League scouts and analysts about how the game

scouts and analysts about how the game

scouts and analysts about how the game should be played most teams now have

should be played most teams now have

should be played most teams now have some form of mathematician who works for

some form of mathematician who works for

some form of mathematician who works for them and tries to work out how the team

them and tries to work out how the team

them and tries to work out how the team can play better together one thing

can play better together one thing

can play better together one thing though I haven’t yet been signed for

though I haven’t yet been signed for

though I haven’t yet been signed for Liverpool and I thought I’d take this

Liverpool and I thought I’d take this

Liverpool and I thought I’d take this opportunity Jurgen Klopp if you’re

opportunity Jurgen Klopp if you’re

opportunity Jurgen Klopp if you’re watching just give me a call I’m

watching just give me a call I’m

watching just give me a call I’m available this is my daughter Elise I

available this is my daughter Elise I

available this is my daughter Elise I finally when I was going to give a TED

finally when I was going to give a TED

finally when I was going to give a TED talk I finally got her to sit down and

talk I finally got her to sit down and

talk I finally got her to sit down and actually have a look at the book that

actually have a look at the book that

actually have a look at the book that I’ve written about mathematics and

I’ve written about mathematics and

I’ve written about mathematics and football at least is 13 years old and

football at least is 13 years old and

football at least is 13 years old and she thinks a lot about how the world

she thinks a lot about how the world

she thinks a lot about how the world works just like I did when I was that

works just like I did when I was that

works just like I did when I was that age and when I was writing soccer Mattox

age and when I was writing soccer Mattox

age and when I was writing soccer Mattox when I was studying how mathematics and

when I was studying how mathematics and

when I was studying how mathematics and football were connected together I’d

football were connected together I’d

football were connected together I’d often think about what I could

often think about what I could

often think about what I could communicate to her at least isn’t

communicate to her at least isn’t

communicate to her at least isn’t interested in Barcelona’s geometry or

interested in Barcelona’s geometry or

interested in Barcelona’s geometry or Ronaldo shot statistics what is it I can

Ronaldo shot statistics what is it I can

Ronaldo shot statistics what is it I can tell

tell

tell about the the coupling between

about the the coupling between

about the the coupling between mathematics and football the thing that

mathematics and football the thing that

mathematics and football the thing that I would like to say to release and to

I would like to say to release and to

I would like to say to release and to Henry and to all of you is that

Henry and to all of you is that

Henry and to all of you is that mathematics is not for some detached

mathematics is not for some detached

mathematics is not for some detached geniuses it’s not about picking you you

geniuses it’s not about picking you you

geniuses it’s not about picking you you you you’re going to be in the best team

you you’re going to be in the best team

you you’re going to be in the best team and other people aren’t in the team

and other people aren’t in the team

and other people aren’t in the team mathematics is like a kickabout with

mathematics is like a kickabout with

mathematics is like a kickabout with friends it’s about getting stuck in it’s

friends it’s about getting stuck in it’s

friends it’s about getting stuck in it’s about getting dirty and enjoying

about getting dirty and enjoying

about getting dirty and enjoying yourself it’s about using your

yourself it’s about using your

yourself it’s about using your imagination it’s about using is building

imagination it’s about using is building

imagination it’s about using is building up analogies between different parts of

up analogies between different parts of

up analogies between different parts of the world

the world

the world mathematics is something that all of us

mathematics is something that all of us

mathematics is something that all of us can and should be doing now often it

can and should be doing now often it

can and should be doing now often it talks like this you see someone like me

talks like this you see someone like me

talks like this you see someone like me waving their hands about saying

waving their hands about saying

waving their hands about saying mathematics is in everything

mathematics is in everything

mathematics is in everything mathematics is everywhere away and I

mathematics is everywhere away and I

mathematics is everywhere away and I have just done that and it is something

have just done that and it is something

have just done that and it is something I agree with there is a lot of

I agree with there is a lot of

I agree with there is a lot of mathematics in the world

mathematics in the world

mathematics in the world I showed a lot of mathematics in

I showed a lot of mathematics in

I showed a lot of mathematics in football but while there is mathematics

football but while there is mathematics

football but while there is mathematics in everything it doesn’t mean that

in everything it doesn’t mean that

in everything it doesn’t mean that mathematics is the answer to the meaning

mathematics is the answer to the meaning

mathematics is the answer to the meaning of life the universe and everything the

of life the universe and everything the

of life the universe and everything the answer isn’t 42 it isn’t any other

answer isn’t 42 it isn’t any other

answer isn’t 42 it isn’t any other number it isn’t some complicated

number it isn’t some complicated

number it isn’t some complicated equation that nobody else understands

equation that nobody else understands

equation that nobody else understands what I learnt from thinking about maths

what I learnt from thinking about maths

what I learnt from thinking about maths and football was a lot more modesty

and football was a lot more modesty

and football was a lot more modesty about my subject so I can study Newton’s

about my subject so I can study Newton’s

about my subject so I can study Newton’s equations as much as I want but I’ll

equations as much as I want but I’ll

equations as much as I want but I’ll never be able to do a lot on ibrahimovic

never be able to do a lot on ibrahimovic

never be able to do a lot on ibrahimovic bicycle cake I can study the geometry of

bicycle cake I can study the geometry of

bicycle cake I can study the geometry of Barcelona but I’ll never be able to pass

Barcelona but I’ll never be able to pass

Barcelona but I’ll never be able to pass in the way those players can I can study

in the way those players can I can study

in the way those players can I can study game theory and strategy but I’ll never

game theory and strategy but I’ll never

game theory and strategy but I’ll never be able to manage a team like Peirce and

be able to manage a team like Peirce and

be able to manage a team like Peirce and Hagen or Pep Guardiola I can study as

Hagen or Pep Guardiola I can study as

Hagen or Pep Guardiola I can study as many fancy calculations make lots of

many fancy calculations make lots of

many fancy calculations make lots of fancy calculations but in the end I’ll

fancy calculations but in the end I’ll

fancy calculations but in the end I’ll still be that boy ten years old in the

still be that boy ten years old in the

still be that boy ten years old in the Liverpool strip who can’t play football

Liverpool strip who can’t play football

Liverpool strip who can’t play football and only has a small insight into this

and only has a small insight into this

and only has a small insight into this incredible complex and complicated world

incredible complex and complicated world

incredible complex and complicated world we live in

we live in

we live in mas can’t allow us to understand

mas can’t allow us to understand

mas can’t allow us to understand everything not even close

everything not even close

everything not even close there’s lots of things in the world that

there’s lots of things in the world that

there’s lots of things in the world that we’ll never understand but what

we’ll never understand but what

we’ll never understand but what mathematics does give us it gives us

mathematics does give us it gives us

mathematics does give us it gives us this edge it gives us that little extra

this edge it gives us that little extra

this edge it gives us that little extra bit of understanding it us to win just a

bit of understanding it us to win just a

bit of understanding it us to win just a few more matches than we lose and that

few more matches than we lose and that

few more matches than we lose and that is why mathematics is important to me to

is why mathematics is important to me to

is why mathematics is important to me to you and every one of us thank you

”

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