so I’m going to paint you a vision of the future tonight so I want you to take
the future tonight so I want you to take
the future tonight so I want you to take a deep breath relax sit back and close
a deep breath relax sit back and close
a deep breath relax sit back and close your eyes think about Times Square New
your eyes think about Times Square New
your eyes think about Times Square New York City 1900 the hustle the people on
York City 1900 the hustle the people on
York City 1900 the hustle the people on the sidewalks a boy hollers off from the
the sidewalks a boy hollers off from the
the sidewalks a boy hollers off from the stand get your newspaper here horses
stand get your newspaper here horses
stand get your newspaper here horses clatter as they pull carts through the
clatter as they pull carts through the
clatter as they pull carts through the streets no radio no TV no cell phones no
streets no radio no TV no cell phones no
streets no radio no TV no cell phones no internet life seemed much simpler you
internet life seemed much simpler you
internet life seemed much simpler you can open your eyes now
can open your eyes now
can open your eyes now but 1900 New York City had huge issues
but 1900 New York City had huge issues
but 1900 New York City had huge issues to solve just in the past decade the
to solve just in the past decade the
to solve just in the past decade the population grew 33 percent to a
population grew 33 percent to a
population grew 33 percent to a staggering 3.4 million people lack of
staggering 3.4 million people lack of
staggering 3.4 million people lack of affordable housing drinking water food
affordable housing drinking water food
affordable housing drinking water food distribution and proper medical
distribution and proper medical
distribution and proper medical facilities were all issues at the time
facilities were all issues at the time
facilities were all issues at the time one of the larger issues was related to
one of the larger issues was related to
one of the larger issues was related to transportation so in 1900 the city
transportation so in 1900 the city
transportation so in 1900 the city commissioned to study to get an idea of
commissioned to study to get an idea of
commissioned to study to get an idea of how big this problem was going to be the
how big this problem was going to be the
how big this problem was going to be the study stated that by 1920 New York City
study stated that by 1920 New York City
study stated that by 1920 New York City was going to deal with 3 times the
was going to deal with 3 times the
was going to deal with 3 times the amount of horse manure than what was
amount of horse manure than what was
amount of horse manure than what was currently being produced you heard right
currently being produced you heard right
currently being produced you heard right horse manure New Yorkers wanted their
horse manure New Yorkers wanted their
horse manure New Yorkers wanted their city clean proper disposal was important
city clean proper disposal was important
city clean proper disposal was important for the health and well-being of the
for the health and well-being of the
for the health and well-being of the city of course it also had economic
city of course it also had economic
city of course it also had economic impacts for example fine dining
impacts for example fine dining
impacts for example fine dining establishments located along many of the
establishments located along many of the
establishments located along many of the well-traveled districts didn’t want to
well-traveled districts didn’t want to
well-traveled districts didn’t want to compete with the harsh order so the city
compete with the harsh order so the city
compete with the harsh order so the city started prepare for it the study stated
started prepare for it the study stated
started prepare for it the study stated would happen of course the study didn’t
would happen of course the study didn’t
would happen of course the study didn’t include the impact of an emerging
include the impact of an emerging
include the impact of an emerging technology the horseless carriage so as
technology the horseless carriage so as
technology the horseless carriage so as the city goes along and spends a
the city goes along and spends a
the city goes along and spends a significant amount of
significant amount of
significant amount of money preparing for the disposal of more
money preparing for the disposal of more
money preparing for the disposal of more horse manure the reality is that the
horse manure the reality is that the
horse manure the reality is that the number of horses being used for
number of horses being used for
number of horses being used for transportation go down each year of
transportation go down each year of
transportation go down each year of course by the 1920s horses being used
course by the 1920s horses being used
course by the 1920s horses being used for transportation in New York City are
for transportation in New York City are
for transportation in New York City are relatively obscure new technology has
relatively obscure new technology has
relatively obscure new technology has taken the place of the horse the money
taken the place of the horse the money
taken the place of the horse the money spent on the study and getting proper
spent on the study and getting proper
spent on the study and getting proper infrastructure ready to handle the issue
infrastructure ready to handle the issue
infrastructure ready to handle the issue wasted a significant disruption has
wasted a significant disruption has
wasted a significant disruption has taken place 1900 a buggy whip company
taken place 1900 a buggy whip company
taken place 1900 a buggy whip company and stagecoach wheel company had the
and stagecoach wheel company had the
and stagecoach wheel company had the best year they’ve ever had sales and
best year they’ve ever had sales and
best year they’ve ever had sales and profits at an all-time high they were
profits at an all-time high they were
profits at an all-time high they were think that obviously the horseless
think that obviously the horseless
think that obviously the horseless carriage was just another fad and our
carriage was just another fad and our
carriage was just another fad and our company will continue to prosper when
company will continue to prosper when
company will continue to prosper when 1920 finally arrives the age of the
1920 finally arrives the age of the
1920 finally arrives the age of the automobile is in full swing the buggy
automobile is in full swing the buggy
automobile is in full swing the buggy whip company out of business so we may
whip company out of business so we may
whip company out of business so we may not live in an era from which we are
not live in an era from which we are
not live in an era from which we are moving into the age of the horseless
moving into the age of the horseless
moving into the age of the horseless carriage but we are about to enter the
carriage but we are about to enter the
carriage but we are about to enter the age of the Jetsons robots are already
age of the Jetsons robots are already
age of the Jetsons robots are already cleaning our floors making many of the
cleaning our floors making many of the
cleaning our floors making many of the products in factories greeting customers
products in factories greeting customers
products in factories greeting customers in shopping malls and banks robots will
in shopping malls and banks robots will
in shopping malls and banks robots will help us security health care elderly
help us security health care elderly
help us security health care elderly care robots will soon be washing your
care robots will soon be washing your
care robots will soon be washing your clothes cooking your food and cleaning
clothes cooking your food and cleaning
clothes cooking your food and cleaning your windows vehicles are getting closer
your windows vehicles are getting closer
your windows vehicles are getting closer to driving themselves autonomous or
to driving themselves autonomous or
to driving themselves autonomous or self-driving vehicles will be available
self-driving vehicles will be available
self-driving vehicles will be available to the general public in less than 10
to the general public in less than 10
to the general public in less than 10 years in fact pa V’s personal air
years in fact pa V’s personal air
years in fact pa V’s personal air vehicles or simply the flying car will
vehicles or simply the flying car will
vehicles or simply the flying car will soon be available for us to purchase
soon be available for us to purchase
soon be available for us to purchase UAVs more commonly known as drones will
UAVs more commonly known as drones will
UAVs more commonly known as drones will go zoom go get our pizza they’ll mail
go zoom go get our pizza they’ll mail
go zoom go get our pizza they’ll mail get our mail and our prescriptions
get our mail and our prescriptions
get our mail and our prescriptions drones will also keep us safe by
drones will also keep us safe by
drones will also keep us safe by surveilling our businesses and our homes
surveilling our businesses and our homes
surveilling our businesses and our homes food production will increase as drones
food production will increase as drones
food production will increase as drones keep an eye on the world’s production 3d
keep an eye on the world’s production 3d
keep an eye on the world’s production 3d printers well print replacement parts
printers well print replacement parts
printers well print replacement parts for your washing machine
for your washing machine
for your washing machine as well as new products that you need in
as well as new products that you need in
as well as new products that you need in your home 3d printers will also create
your home 3d printers will also create
your home 3d printers will also create body parts like hip and knee
body parts like hip and knee
body parts like hip and knee replacements organs and even your skin
replacements organs and even your skin
replacements organs and even your skin these printers will create our roads our
these printers will create our roads our
these printers will create our roads our office buildings and homes just like the
office buildings and homes just like the
office buildings and homes just like the one you see already printed in this
one you see already printed in this
one you see already printed in this image so what does this all mean for
image so what does this all mean for
image so what does this all mean for humanity’s future and more importantly
humanity’s future and more importantly
humanity’s future and more importantly what does it mean for your future well
what does it mean for your future well
what does it mean for your future well if you’re comfortable with your current
if you’re comfortable with your current
if you’re comfortable with your current job or what you’re doing or what you
job or what you’re doing or what you
job or what you’re doing or what you study in for the way you play and maybe
study in for the way you play and maybe
study in for the way you play and maybe even how you interact with your family
even how you interact with your family
even how you interact with your family you’re about to get very uncomfortable
you’re about to get very uncomfortable
you’re about to get very uncomfortable and Wiley notice study published in
and Wiley notice study published in
and Wiley notice study published in nineteen twenty thirteen Carl Frye
nineteen twenty thirteen Carl Frye
nineteen twenty thirteen Carl Frye Michael Osborn examined 702 occupations
Michael Osborn examined 702 occupations
Michael Osborn examined 702 occupations and found that 47 percent of workers in
and found that 47 percent of workers in
and found that 47 percent of workers in America had jobs at high risk of
America had jobs at high risk of
America had jobs at high risk of potential automation in particular they
potential automation in particular they
potential automation in particular they warned that most workers in transport
warned that most workers in transport
warned that most workers in transport logistics office support sales cashiers
logistics office support sales cashiers
logistics office support sales cashiers clerks telemarketers and accountants
clerks telemarketers and accountants
clerks telemarketers and accountants will simply disappear additional
will simply disappear additional
will simply disappear additional developments in technology including
developments in technology including
developments in technology including advances in 3d printing and robotics
advances in 3d printing and robotics
advances in 3d printing and robotics since 2013
since 2013
since 2013 will displace many in the medical
will displace many in the medical
will displace many in the medical professions restaurants retail attorneys
professions restaurants retail attorneys
professions restaurants retail attorneys software developers and many more jobs
software developers and many more jobs
software developers and many more jobs that require physical labor in essence
that require physical labor in essence
that require physical labor in essence almost everybody in this room is going
almost everybody in this room is going
almost everybody in this room is going to be impacted by these changes
to be impacted by these changes
to be impacted by these changes so are you uncomfortable yet obviously
so are you uncomfortable yet obviously
so are you uncomfortable yet obviously you are the ability to use the talents
you are the ability to use the talents
you are the ability to use the talents that you have developed to make a living
that you have developed to make a living
that you have developed to make a living are going to be replaced by artificial
are going to be replaced by artificial
are going to be replaced by artificial intelligence or a robot talk about
intelligence or a robot talk about
intelligence or a robot talk about feeling unneeded in fact I could just
feeling unneeded in fact I could just
feeling unneeded in fact I could just get depressed talking about this right
get depressed talking about this right
get depressed talking about this right now but while we look at the future one
now but while we look at the future one
now but while we look at the future one only has to look at the past to gain
only has to look at the past to gain
only has to look at the past to gain perspective the horse manure issue in
perspective the horse manure issue in
perspective the horse manure issue in New York in 1900 is not unique right now
New York in 1900 is not unique right now
New York in 1900 is not unique right now many cities and states in the country
many cities and states in the country
many cities and states in the country are looking 20 to 50 years in the future
are looking 20 to 50 years in the future
are looking 20 to 50 years in the future planning on infrastructure deems many of
planning on infrastructure deems many of
planning on infrastructure deems many of these studies will state that this city
these studies will state that this city
these studies will state that this city needs to put a new road over here or to
needs to put a new road over here or to
needs to put a new road over here or to add more lanes over there
add more lanes over there
add more lanes over there of course these studies are flawed
of course these studies are flawed
of course these studies are flawed because they’re not based on or they’re
because they’re not based on or they’re
because they’re not based on or they’re based on current technology most experts
based on current technology most experts
based on current technology most experts agree that self-driving cars will reduce
agree that self-driving cars will reduce
agree that self-driving cars will reduce accidents by 90% this means less traffic
accidents by 90% this means less traffic
accidents by 90% this means less traffic jams and more efficient use of our
jams and more efficient use of our
jams and more efficient use of our roadways then you factor in that more
roadways then you factor in that more
roadways then you factor in that more people will work from home because of
people will work from home because of
people will work from home because of advances in technology drones taking
advances in technology drones taking
advances in technology drones taking care of everyday tasks like going to get
care of everyday tasks like going to get
care of everyday tasks like going to get your pizza
your pizza
your pizza picking up bread from the market
picking up bread from the market
picking up bread from the market bringing us prescriptions and picking up
bringing us prescriptions and picking up
bringing us prescriptions and picking up food from our favorite restaurants well
food from our favorite restaurants well
food from our favorite restaurants well further diminish the amount of time
further diminish the amount of time
further diminish the amount of time people will spend driving so this sounds
people will spend driving so this sounds
people will spend driving so this sounds like our roads are going to be used a
like our roads are going to be used a
like our roads are going to be used a lot less 20 years from now than more so
lot less 20 years from now than more so
lot less 20 years from now than more so why should we spend these massive
why should we spend these massive
why should we spend these massive amounts of money on infrastructure when
amounts of money on infrastructure when
amounts of money on infrastructure when the future is totally the difference in
the future is totally the difference in
the future is totally the difference in what we’re looking at today technology
what we’re looking at today technology
what we’re looking at today technology disruption surrounds us at no other time
disruption surrounds us at no other time
disruption surrounds us at no other time in history has this been more prevalent
in history has this been more prevalent
in history has this been more prevalent significant disruptions in
significant disruptions in
significant disruptions in transportation manufacturing accounting
transportation manufacturing accounting
transportation manufacturing accounting food gathering and preparation
food gathering and preparation
food gathering and preparation construction and other industries are
construction and other industries are
construction and other industries are just starting to unfold I on the other
just starting to unfold I on the other
just starting to unfold I on the other hand I’m extremely optimistic about the
hand I’m extremely optimistic about the
hand I’m extremely optimistic about the opportunities that I don’t even know
opportunities that I don’t even know
opportunities that I don’t even know about yet you see in the past technology
about yet you see in the past technology
about yet you see in the past technology has always ended up creating more jobs
has always ended up creating more jobs
has always ended up creating more jobs than it destroys that is because of the
than it destroys that is because of the
than it destroys that is because of the way automation works in practice
way automation works in practice
way automation works in practice explains David otter from MIT and I’m
explains David otter from MIT and I’m
explains David otter from MIT and I’m just going to read this because this is
just going to read this because this is
just going to read this because this is so important automating a particular
so important automating a particular
so important automating a particular task so that it can be done more quickly
task so that it can be done more quickly
task so that it can be done more quickly or cheaply increases the demand for
or cheaply increases the demand for
or cheaply increases the demand for human workers to do other tasks around
human workers to do other tasks around
human workers to do other tasks around it that have not been automated I’m
it that have not been automated I’m
it that have not been automated I’m going to say that again
going to say that again
going to say that again yes that’s right thank you automating a
yes that’s right thank you automating a
yes that’s right thank you automating a particular task so that it can be done
particular task so that it can be done
particular task so that it can be done more quickly or cheaply increases the
more quickly or cheaply increases the
more quickly or cheaply increases the demand for human workers for other tasks
demand for human workers for other tasks
demand for human workers for other tasks around it that have not been automated
around it that have not been automated
around it that have not been automated excuse me yester now okay I’ll go get
excuse me yester now okay I’ll go get
excuse me yester now okay I’ll go get that sub from central yep yep kind of in
that sub from central yep yep kind of in
that sub from central yep yep kind of in the middle of something right now
the middle of something right now
the middle of something right now all right I know I’m always in the
all right I know I’m always in the
all right I know I’m always in the middle of something yes all right
middle of something yes all right
middle of something yes all right anyway so I just wanted to show you the
anyway so I just wanted to show you the
anyway so I just wanted to show you the phone okay so let’s take a look at the
phone okay so let’s take a look at the
phone okay so let’s take a look at the cell phone the world’s first mobile
cell phone the world’s first mobile
cell phone the world’s first mobile phone call was made in April 3rd 1973
phone call was made in April 3rd 1973
phone call was made in April 3rd 1973 when Martin Cooper and senior engineer
when Martin Cooper and senior engineer
when Martin Cooper and senior engineer at Motorola called his rival competitor
at Motorola called his rival competitor
at Motorola called his rival competitor telecommunications companies to inform
telecommunications companies to inform
telecommunications companies to inform them he was speaking to them via a
them he was speaking to them via a
them he was speaking to them via a mobile phone I love that story right so
mobile phone I love that story right so
mobile phone I love that story right so the phone Cooper used if you can call it
the phone Cooper used if you can call it
the phone Cooper used if you can call it that wait a staggering two and a half
that wait a staggering two and a half
that wait a staggering two and a half pounds imagine holding that up for a
pounds imagine holding that up for a
pounds imagine holding that up for a while 30 minutes of talk time and took
while 30 minutes of talk time and took
while 30 minutes of talk time and took ten hours to charge so then we
ten hours to charge so then we
ten hours to charge so then we fast-forward a little bit
fast-forward a little bit
fast-forward a little bit 1983 the first mobile phones went on
1983 the first mobile phones went on
1983 the first mobile phones went on sale in the United States
sale in the United States
sale in the United States $4,000 since then over 250 million Nokia
$4,000 since then over 250 million Nokia
$4,000 since then over 250 million Nokia 1100 devices one of the very first
1100 devices one of the very first
1100 devices one of the very first mobile phones that were affordable were
mobile phones that were affordable were
mobile phones that were affordable were sold 250 million making that the
sold 250 million making that the
sold 250 million making that the best-selling electrical gadget in
best-selling electrical gadget in
best-selling electrical gadget in history more people in the world have
history more people in the world have
history more people in the world have these cell phones than toilets think
these cell phones than toilets think
these cell phones than toilets think about that the technology behind smart
about that the technology behind smart
about that the technology behind smart phones relies on up to 250,000 patents
phones relies on up to 250,000 patents
phones relies on up to 250,000 patents and the average person unlocks his or
and the average person unlocks his or
and the average person unlocks his or her own prison her smartphone an average
her own prison her smartphone an average
her own prison her smartphone an average of a hundred and ten times a day as of
of a hundred and ten times a day as of
of a hundred and ten times a day as of June 2016 2.2 million apps are available
June 2016 2.2 million apps are available
June 2016 2.2 million apps are available in the Android Store Apple is just over
in the Android Store Apple is just over
in the Android Store Apple is just over 2 million apps such as uber and lyft
2 million apps such as uber and lyft
2 million apps such as uber and lyft but many people to work products such as
but many people to work products such as
but many people to work products such as Bluetooth headsets phone cases those
Bluetooth headsets phone cases those
Bluetooth headsets phone cases those companies thrive so a simple phone call
companies thrive so a simple phone call
companies thrive so a simple phone call in 1973 started all of this one phone
in 1973 started all of this one phone
in 1973 started all of this one phone call
call
call so this technology is spun off more
so this technology is spun off more
so this technology is spun off more industries and has enhanced many others
industries and has enhanced many others
industries and has enhanced many others obviously many people in traditional
obviously many people in traditional
obviously many people in traditional telephony have been disrupted so if you
telephony have been disrupted so if you
telephony have been disrupted so if you have landlines those types of things
have landlines those types of things
have landlines those types of things those people going out of business of
those people going out of business of
those people going out of business of course but however the jobs created are
course but however the jobs created are
course but however the jobs created are absolutely staggering this is just one
absolutely staggering this is just one
absolutely staggering this is just one of the reasons I’m so excited for what
of the reasons I’m so excited for what
of the reasons I’m so excited for what is about to happen so many opportunities
is about to happen so many opportunities
is about to happen so many opportunities will be available for you and I for many
will be available for you and I for many
will be available for you and I for many of us our favorite hobby
of us our favorite hobby
of us our favorite hobby become a job in the future another thing
become a job in the future another thing
become a job in the future another thing that’s exciting is the ability to use
that’s exciting is the ability to use
that’s exciting is the ability to use time more effectively have a video
time more effectively have a video
time more effectively have a video conversation with your parents in your
conversation with your parents in your
conversation with your parents in your self-driving flying car as it transports
self-driving flying car as it transports
self-driving flying car as it transports you to work spend time with your kids as
you to work spend time with your kids as
you to work spend time with your kids as your drone goes to pick up dinner and
your drone goes to pick up dinner and
your drone goes to pick up dinner and your family robot keeps your house
your family robot keeps your house
your family robot keeps your house cleaned washes your clothes and packs
cleaned washes your clothes and packs
cleaned washes your clothes and packs you a lunch for work there is another
you a lunch for work there is another
you a lunch for work there is another company involved in the transportation
company involved in the transportation
company involved in the transportation business in 1900 this company
business in 1900 this company
business in 1900 this company manufactured roller bearings for
manufactured roller bearings for
manufactured roller bearings for stagecoaches
stagecoaches
stagecoaches some wonder the company realized that
some wonder the company realized that
some wonder the company realized that this product could be used for all
this product could be used for all
this product could be used for all moving vehicles so they adapted the Tim
moving vehicles so they adapted the Tim
moving vehicles so they adapted the Tim cam company is now one of the largest
cam company is now one of the largest
cam company is now one of the largest producers of roller bearings in the
producers of roller bearings in the
producers of roller bearings in the world today so accept the fact that your
world today so accept the fact that your
world today so accept the fact that your life is going to be disrupted by
life is going to be disrupted by
life is going to be disrupted by technology be prepared for the fact that
technology be prepared for the fact that
technology be prepared for the fact that your job may be replaced by automation
your job may be replaced by automation
your job may be replaced by automation but know that better opportunities what
but know that better opportunities what
but know that better opportunities what previous didn’t present themselves so
previous didn’t present themselves so
previous didn’t present themselves so did I mention I’m excited for the future
did I mention I’m excited for the future
did I mention I’m excited for the future you should be too as Tim buck 3 stated
you should be too as Tim buck 3 stated
you should be too as Tim buck 3 stated in their song the future so bright you
in their song the future so bright you
in their song the future so bright you gotta wear shades thanks everybody
gotta wear shades thanks everybody
gotta wear shades thanks everybody [Applause]
”
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