the time is clearly going on
cyr and this redoux will be accompanied
the north west of France a time
agitated tormented a gust of wind is going
sweep the entire shoreline of the sleeve of
the Breton tip to belgium
the wind will blow more and more strongly
and then tomorrow it’s a real
storm that will hit France and yes
it’s klaus who will hit France this
January 24, 2009
klaus yes thanks klaus who is who is in
simmer on the Atlantic
there is a lot of uncertainty so we’re going
try to understand what are these
uncertainties and how I lived this the
passage of this storm klaus on our
country and this storm klaus she was
extremely violent and you saw
all the damage she did and the
Friday we were still not very sure
that she can develop herself that she
can be formed first why klaus
it’s not a given name that was given
by France but it’s a name that
is given by our German friends and if
you want your name to be
assigned to one of the pressures and
the anticyclone just send us
a small mail at the university of berlin
it costs a few euros for a
anticyclone because we do not talk about it
a lot and a little more expensive for a
depression because we do not talk about it anymore
often
so here we are we give no
names pretty enough quite a storm then
so there is Friday still very
big worries in the premises of
france weather because we are considering the
formation of a depression in the Gulf
of gascogne depression in the gulf
of gascogne has often but this one
she seems dangerous she seems
versatile because she is she is
very very complex gold what is it
is happening in
the atmosphere before we understand
make that decision but you have
in the atmosphere so-called
I do not know if you heard
talk about jet stream
they are tubes of strong winds that
serve for aviation to cross
much faster
the Atlantic when we come from
united states to france we can win
up to an hour of flight and his throws this
are very very loud tubes before said
1500 meters above sea level then it ripples
above the ocean
I had about a few hundred
2 2 meters in diameter and several
thousands of kilometers long and this
day there on the Atlantic
we have a snake that is in the process of
milk with winds that is at
the inside of this snake blows at 300
kilometers per hour and then below
walks little depressions say
small depression system that
are walking around and there are
some
model we will see later what
it’s a model but to some models
that put depression under the
snake and as for pressure passes
under the snake as are
ascending movements under depression
but there is a kind of aspiration that
is made with the very wind tube
strong and there you have a drop of
pressure that is extremely brutal the
depression deepens and it becomes a
very big storm a bomb
meteorological
and then on some models the little
the little depression she misses
nothing happens and on other models
she is only close to the tube of winds
strong she does not explode but she becomes
a little more virulent so the choice
on Friday, January 23rd of all
weather forecasters france
it was to say where will this
depression is what happens under
the tube under this famous tube snake
of strong wind and this is a choice that
is difficult to do because there are
models that actually did not give
of solution for the passage of this
storm so a choice is made we say
that the storm is actually going to
depression is actually going on
the tube and so what about this storm in
the gulf of gascogne will explode and
become a major phenomenon so this one
once we have considered the phenomenon
major we made a choice we are like
a tightrope walker who has several solutions
and who is obliged to choose the right one
to go from point a to point b
so we made a choice took the
solution of the tightrope walker who chooses the
path that will lead us to a powerful
storm you must have done the
choice one must find must find the
ways to warn the population of
prevent all actors
try to have the fewest victims
possible and try to have
actually forecasts that are of
excellent quality
so the pressure is rising
and then in the afternoon we start
go into red vigilance 5 then 9
departments
and then of course we warn the whole
actors involved in the transition from
this storm there is full
of actors you have all the powers
public
you have the df you have
air transport transport
road transport and rail transport
you have the assurances that are
interested in knowing the
passage of such an event and then you
have the civilian security that is in charge
setting up means with all
the prefects and the minister of
inside that for the case was
presented set up
asked what is put in place a
number of very impressive ways
to be able to avoid one of the victims for
this storm we had helicopters
on the bordeaux region
helicopters on the region of
montpellier country hospitals that
have been set up with pretty much
1000 people who had been mobilized
for this event so here is the
context we made the decision we are
placed on alert orange we have
triggered it is said to have a storm
and then when we leave with my
colleague at night good night the day
was very very long
we go with my colleague in the evening and
then we say ah yes but if the model
who had announced the passage next to the
of the snake the depression he is right
tomorrow is nothing there is no storm
so we put in place means we have
put in place means
impressive and there is no
storm
so we go home and of course the
night was very short 1 we followed jean
especially I followed the
situation regularly and looking at
on the internet the evolution of the parameters
weather telling me is he going to vata
is she going to explode is she going to be born
this famous storm and from
midnight from midnight I start to
look at the observations of this
storm that are starting to get organized
and actually it goes under the tube
and passing on the tube on the galice
northern Spain on the Cantabrian
in Galicia the wind begins to reach
219 kilometers per hour in gusts
it’s starting to become already very
impressive
and then around 3 am burgundy
the wind begins to increase the wind
starts to increase in speed in
exceeding the 100 kilometer hour of the
side of the ferret cap and the side of
bordeaux then in one go to three
hours of the morning
one hundred and sixty-one kilometers an hour
bursts on bordeaux so that’s a
another explosion took place
and then now this storm is going
to the south of Toulouse towards the
Mediterranean crossing between the massif
central and the pyrenees which will play a
little an accelerator effect and then
158 km in the course of the morning
in narbonne 191 this is the most valuable
high that we have had in France
191 kilometers hour from the side of
so perpetuate a great joy to see
this storm
well planned finally but a big
worry anyway because what is
what’s going on behind you know
when you’re on the highway he
rolled at 130 if you go to see him at
through the window your arm there
took to imagine what it is to 190
we never go 1 190 so we surrender
not well account for the power of the wind
and the speed that can reach
these winds in a in a storm
as impressive so big
worry and joy at having made a
good forecasting granier worry because
that because this storm is going to have
unfortunately consequences well
sure as usual when there is a
event like enough damage
important 1 million 800 thousand bit by bit
near nobody deprived of electricity
there were 600 700 thousand hectares of forest
who were destroyed 400 wounded and 12
victims
then 12 victims there actually
it’s the negative side of the good
forecast why are there still some
victims when we at events
like that we were enough
anticipated and sufficiently considered is
simply because it’s
difficult when I ask you the question
do you believe it all
weather forecast no they are wrong
all the time they took the umbrella
they are still drunk and then and then
it’s Saturday
it’s saturday you have to go out
go shopping and there we go
shopping
you have to eat at the mother-in-law’s house
will eat at the mother-in-law’s
we will buy bread because we have
need to buy bread and whatever
the event
if you have programmed the day before a trip
an activity we are not going to
delete because of this event
weather so a bad catch
of consciousness of the population of
the event itself and in the
victims that there was on this episode there
the 12 victims
these are essentially
victims by recklessness
the twelve victims you have people
who fell off the roof because he
wanted to hand over TV antennas for
a 20-hour diary you have some
people
who died electrocuted because they
took off the little cable that was passing
in front of their house they were on the floor
unfortunately there was still
from the current on and the worst the worst of
all these are the people who have come out for
to have electricity at their homes
generators and not to make them
fly they emitted in the house
then a generator that works
with diesel and it produces of course
harmful gases
so we protect it will not do it
fly and we die asphyxiated what is
strongly damage so there is a strong
anticipation for that in the future
if there are still events like that
there must be no more victims
the second element is the forecast
of the weather forecast
how does it work what is it
why we have difficulties
like that to make his choices so that’s it
it’s the most complex part then
I will try to tell you how
does it work a model what is a
numerical forecasting model
Ben is to know about all of
the earth the time it makes for a moment
given that she projected up to a
ten days to know as much
that he will do so we put to the surface
of the globe layers of wire
pretty much without a layer of travel at the
globe surface
but see that between these layers of
toasting in the baht
atmosphere and altitude test one
will create small boxes
so we create billions of boxes
whose side of the box is 10km
helping inside these boxes on
try to know every moment
especially as it is part of the pressure
humidity temperature is to know
how is it going to evolve with more
physical equations one tries to see
how are you going to evolve all six
minutes until ten days and
up to ten days have done
turn the models to know
the evolution of the atmosphere
but from that moment on
realizes that the more we go from yesteryear
be drifting and we use
methods that allow us to be able to
quantify this drift to be able to see
how the atmosphere
evolves as from three days ago it
started to leave a little loose a little
in spin and I suggest you to watch
a little spaghetti so-called
no spaghetti so here you have the
journey of an air particle traveling
united states practically until
confines of Russia
and we have our 72 solution since you
to take a solution of which we say
we will see how it evolves
and when you go to see the picture
stop you’ll see that in a
first time the 72 solution they are
all of them are all identical and that
gradually two days three days
four days five days six days after
see this drift and see that we have
trajectories that begins to drift and
after you have a scribble of children
so it’s hard to make
weather forecast at around ten
of days and for this storm klaus
that’s the particularity of this
klaus storm is that drift
it was starting one day we could not
do forecast a day rather
that one day, that is to say that we have
not considered 48 hours before the passage
of this storm but really in the
24 hours we could predict the passage of
this storm in this great satisfaction
so that’s the bad side of the
wind a little nasty belly that
also transports the viruses the
parasites diseases finally good that
it’s bad wind but there’s wind
rather good the wind that is the good
benefit of humanity that brings us
lots of things
this wind that has allowed us to
discoveries you have for 3000 years
before jesus christ people who have
invented sailing boats that allowed
to travel on shits to move
to go to trade
and then you have the wind that allowed
great discoveries like christophe
Columbus who crossed the ocean
thanks to the wind that was south of
the Azores anticyclone
what’s called the trade wind and then you
have low wind that helps sanitize
the atmosphere had no wind
the atmosphere would be unhealthy
since there would be no evacuation we
had the wind that allows us to
produce electricity to produce
drinking water produce a bunch of
things that are beneficial to nature
and of course the fauna the flora the wind
who does the erosion that is the beauty of
our landscapes with water and then this wind
which is therefore very very useful to
all of our living very very
present to all of our living and
then a peculiarity of the wind that you
maybe not know but I hope
that you know the pulse of the
planet
what is the lung of the planet that
allows you to have a supply
of significant oxygen and that absorbs a
part of the co2 produced in abundance
do you have an idea about the ocean
in the ocean it absorbs the co2 the forest
Amazon
it is the forest the lung of the earth
it’s the Amazon rainforest and you know
how does this Amazon forest live
thanks to who lives this Amazonian forest
thanks to the wind and what is the role of
wind in this Amazon rainforest
but this Amazonian forest it is
nourished by an element he’s amazing
unexpectedly by the sand of the sahara you
take the Azores anticyclone your
turn in the Azores sector
he allowed france to pantyhose from
christophe colomb discovers america
but he suffers to the arts so they
carry sand and transport
sand permanently between the sahara and
and from south america and therefore provided
Phosphorus fertilizer actually is
phosphorus that is brought to the forest
saharan fort hills has nothing that has not
of natural fertilizer since it’s raining
a lot there is a lot of runoff
so there is a lot of land going away
and the food is brought by the
Sahara desert
and this desert therefore provides the sand and the
phosphorus that is necessary to the
our food from our forest
our planet
so this is an unexpected aspect of the wind
but it is useful also good we have it
seen earlier in the arts in the
music
it is useful for ben for salt so
you want to have salt it takes
evaporation but it’s thanks to the wind
and in the sun of course but that there is a
a strong evaporation so this wind is
very useful to life on earth so the
negative side it was storm side
negative it is also transport of
viruses and and the transport of
of CO2 in the upper atmosphere but the
benefit of the low wind and shape our
landscapes and bring to our life a
unexpected well-being waits unexpectedly and
I hope it will be sustainable in any case
the wind following the isobars
anticyclonic that follows the isobars
depressionary like a little a
funambulist I mentioned earlier
this wind I hope that when you go
get out of the bath room you go on the
perceive in a way a little
different and you will do as we
said a moment ago a great
breathing
thank you
[Applause]
”
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