I’m a climate scientist and if this room is representative of the country we live
is representative of the country we live
is representative of the country we live in that means about 60% of you so maybe
in that means about 60% of you so maybe
in that means about 60% of you so maybe from about there over don’t strongly
from about there over don’t strongly
from about there over don’t strongly trust me for information on the causes
trust me for information on the causes
trust me for information on the causes of climate change now I promise to tell
of climate change now I promise to tell
of climate change now I promise to tell the truth tonight but just to humor that
the truth tonight but just to humor that
the truth tonight but just to humor that demographic I’ve started this talk with
demographic I’ve started this talk with
demographic I’ve started this talk with a falsehood this statement was not made
a falsehood this statement was not made
a falsehood this statement was not made by President Obama was actually made by
by President Obama was actually made by
by President Obama was actually made by President Reagan and it wasn’t about
President Reagan and it wasn’t about
President Reagan and it wasn’t about climate change in the Paris climate
climate change in the Paris climate
climate change in the Paris climate Accord it was actually about the
Accord it was actually about the
Accord it was actually about the Montreal Protocol and stratospheric
Montreal Protocol and stratospheric
Montreal Protocol and stratospheric ozone depletion now I’m sure that many
ozone depletion now I’m sure that many
ozone depletion now I’m sure that many of you are familiar with this
of you are familiar with this
of you are familiar with this environmental problem but you should be
environmental problem but you should be
environmental problem but you should be because it’s a rare environmental
because it’s a rare environmental
because it’s a rare environmental success story and it’s worth revisiting
success story and it’s worth revisiting
success story and it’s worth revisiting because sometimes we need to examine the
because sometimes we need to examine the
because sometimes we need to examine the world we’ve avoided in order to find
world we’ve avoided in order to find
world we’ve avoided in order to find guidance for the choices we make today
guidance for the choices we make today
guidance for the choices we make today so let’s go back to the 1970s when some
so let’s go back to the 1970s when some
so let’s go back to the 1970s when some questionable choices were made first of
questionable choices were made first of
questionable choices were made first of all who hairstyles second of all
all who hairstyles second of all
all who hairstyles second of all objectively terrible quantities of
objectively terrible quantities of
objectively terrible quantities of hairspray and third CFCs
hairspray and third CFCs
hairspray and third CFCs chlorofluorocarbons man-made chemicals
chlorofluorocarbons man-made chemicals
chlorofluorocarbons man-made chemicals that were used as propellant in aerosol
that were used as propellant in aerosol
that were used as propellant in aerosol spray cans and as he it turns out these
spray cans and as he it turns out these
spray cans and as he it turns out these CFCs were a problem because they were
CFCs were a problem because they were
CFCs were a problem because they were destroying the ozone layer now I’m sure
destroying the ozone layer now I’m sure
destroying the ozone layer now I’m sure most of you have heard of the ozone
most of you have heard of the ozone
most of you have heard of the ozone layer but why does it matter well quite
layer but why does it matter well quite
layer but why does it matter well quite simply the ozone layer is Earth’s
simply the ozone layer is Earth’s
simply the ozone layer is Earth’s sunscreen and it’s really fragile if you
sunscreen and it’s really fragile if you
sunscreen and it’s really fragile if you could take all of the ozone which is
could take all of the ozone which is
could take all of the ozone which is mostly about ten to twenty miles up
mostly about ten to twenty miles up
mostly about ten to twenty miles up above our heads and compress it down to
above our heads and compress it down to
above our heads and compress it down to the surface of the earth it would form a
the surface of the earth it would form a
the surface of the earth it would form a thin shell only about two pennies thick
thin shell only about two pennies thick
thin shell only about two pennies thick about an eighth of an inch and that thin
about an eighth of an inch and that thin
about an eighth of an inch and that thin shell does an amazing amount of work
shell does an amazing amount of work
shell does an amazing amount of work though it it filters out more than 90%
though it it filters out more than 90%
though it it filters out more than 90% the harmful UV radiation coming from the
the harmful UV radiation coming from the
the harmful UV radiation coming from the Sun and while I’m sure many of you enjoy
Sun and while I’m sure many of you enjoy
Sun and while I’m sure many of you enjoy that suntan that you get from the
that suntan that you get from the
that suntan that you get from the remaining 10% it’s also hosts it causes
remaining 10% it’s also hosts it causes
remaining 10% it’s also hosts it causes a lot of problems
a lot of problems
a lot of problems cataracts damage to crops damage to
cataracts damage to crops damage to
cataracts damage to crops damage to immune systems and also skin cancer it’s
immune systems and also skin cancer it’s
immune systems and also skin cancer it’s not an exaggeration to say that a threat
not an exaggeration to say that a threat
not an exaggeration to say that a threat to the ozone layers of threat to human
to the ozone layers of threat to human
to the ozone layers of threat to human safety and actually ironically it was
safety and actually ironically it was
safety and actually ironically it was human safety that motivated the
human safety that motivated the
human safety that motivated the invention of CFCs in the first place you
invention of CFCs in the first place you
invention of CFCs in the first place you see in the early days of refrigerators
see in the early days of refrigerators
see in the early days of refrigerators use toxic and flammable chemicals like
use toxic and flammable chemicals like
use toxic and flammable chemicals like propane and ammonia for good reason the
propane and ammonia for good reason the
propane and ammonia for good reason the refrigeration industry wanted a safe
refrigeration industry wanted a safe
refrigeration industry wanted a safe alternative and they found that in 1928
alternative and they found that in 1928
alternative and they found that in 1928 when a scientist named Thomas Midgley
when a scientist named Thomas Midgley
when a scientist named Thomas Midgley synthesized the first commercially
synthesized the first commercially
synthesized the first commercially viable CFCs and in fact Midgley famously
viable CFCs and in fact Midgley famously
viable CFCs and in fact Midgley famously inhaled CFCs and blew out a candle to
inhaled CFCs and blew out a candle to
inhaled CFCs and blew out a candle to demonstrate at a scientific conference
demonstrate at a scientific conference
demonstrate at a scientific conference that they were safe and non flammable
that they were safe and non flammable
that they were safe and non flammable and in fact as a scientist I can tell
and in fact as a scientist I can tell
and in fact as a scientist I can tell you there is no way you could get away
you there is no way you could get away
you there is no way you could get away with that kind of antic today I mean wow
with that kind of antic today I mean wow
with that kind of antic today I mean wow but but really at the time CFCs were a
but but really at the time CFCs were a
but but really at the time CFCs were a really remarkable invention they allowed
really remarkable invention they allowed
really remarkable invention they allowed what we now know is modern day
what we now know is modern day
what we now know is modern day refrigeration and air conditioning and
refrigeration and air conditioning and
refrigeration and air conditioning and other things so it wasn’t actually until
other things so it wasn’t actually until
other things so it wasn’t actually until over 40 years later in the 1970s when
over 40 years later in the 1970s when
over 40 years later in the 1970s when scientists realized that CFCs would
scientists realized that CFCs would
scientists realized that CFCs would break down high in the atmosphere and
break down high in the atmosphere and
break down high in the atmosphere and damage the ozone layer and this finding
damage the ozone layer and this finding
damage the ozone layer and this finding really set off a lot of public concern
really set off a lot of public concern
really set off a lot of public concern it led ultimately to the banning of CFC
it led ultimately to the banning of CFC
it led ultimately to the banning of CFC usage in aerosol spray cans in the US
usage in aerosol spray cans in the US
usage in aerosol spray cans in the US and a few other countries in 1978 now
and a few other countries in 1978 now
and a few other countries in 1978 now the story doesn’t end there because CFCs
the story doesn’t end there because CFCs
the story doesn’t end there because CFCs were used in much more than just spray
were used in much more than just spray
were used in much more than just spray cans in 1985 scientists discovered the
cans in 1985 scientists discovered the
cans in 1985 scientists discovered the Antarctic ozone hole and this was a
Antarctic ozone hole and this was a
Antarctic ozone hole and this was a truly alarming discovery scientists did
truly alarming discovery scientists did
truly alarming discovery scientists did not expect this at all before the
not expect this at all before the
not expect this at all before the Antarctic ozone hole scientists expected
Antarctic ozone hole scientists expected
Antarctic ozone hole scientists expected maybe a five or ten percent reduction in
maybe a five or ten percent reduction in
maybe a five or ten percent reduction in ozone over a century but what they found
ozone over a century but what they found
ozone over a century but what they found over the course of less than a decade
over the course of less than a decade
over the course of less than a decade was that more than a third of the ozone
was that more than a third of the ozone
was that more than a third of the ozone had simply vanished over an area larger
had simply vanished over an area larger
had simply vanished over an area larger than the size of the US and although we
than the size of the US and although we
than the size of the US and although we now know that CFCs are the root cause of
now know that CFCs are the root cause of
now know that CFCs are the root cause of this ozone hole at the time the science
this ozone hole at the time the science
this ozone hole at the time the science was far from settled yet despite this
was far from settled yet despite this
was far from settled yet despite this uncertainty the crisis helped spur
uncertainty the crisis helped spur
uncertainty the crisis helped spur nations to act so that quote that I
nations to act so that quote that I
nations to act so that quote that I started this talk with about the
started this talk with about the
started this talk with about the Montreal Protocol from President Reagan
Montreal Protocol from President Reagan
Montreal Protocol from President Reagan that was his signing statement when he
that was his signing statement when he
that was his signing statement when he signed the Montreal Protocol after its
signed the Montreal Protocol after its
signed the Montreal Protocol after its unanimous ratification by the US Senate
unanimous ratification by the US Senate
unanimous ratification by the US Senate and this is something that’s truly worth
and this is something that’s truly worth
and this is something that’s truly worth celebrating in fact yesterday was the
celebrating in fact yesterday was the
celebrating in fact yesterday was the 30th anniversary of the Montreal
30th anniversary of the Montreal
30th anniversary of the Montreal Protocol
because of the protocol ozone-depleting
because of the protocol ozone-depleting substances are now declining in our
substances are now declining in our
substances are now declining in our atmosphere and we’re starting to see the
atmosphere and we’re starting to see the
atmosphere and we’re starting to see the first signs of healing in the ozone
first signs of healing in the ozone
first signs of healing in the ozone layer and furthermore because many of
layer and furthermore because many of
layer and furthermore because many of those ozone depleting substances are
those ozone depleting substances are
those ozone depleting substances are also very potent greenhouse gases the
also very potent greenhouse gases the
also very potent greenhouse gases the Montreal Protocol has actually delayed
Montreal Protocol has actually delayed
Montreal Protocol has actually delayed global warming by more than a decade
global warming by more than a decade
global warming by more than a decade that’s just wonderful but I think it’s
that’s just wonderful but I think it’s
that’s just wonderful but I think it’s worth asking the question as we face our
worth asking the question as we face our
worth asking the question as we face our current environmental crisis global
current environmental crisis global
current environmental crisis global warming what lessons can we learn from
warming what lessons can we learn from
warming what lessons can we learn from Montreal are there any I think there are
Montreal are there any I think there are
Montreal are there any I think there are first we don’t need absolute certainty
first we don’t need absolute certainty
first we don’t need absolute certainty to act when Montreal was signed we were
to act when Montreal was signed we were
to act when Montreal was signed we were less certain then of the risks from CFCs
less certain then of the risks from CFCs
less certain then of the risks from CFCs than we are now of the risks from
than we are now of the risks from
than we are now of the risks from greenhouse gas emissions a common tactic
greenhouse gas emissions a common tactic
greenhouse gas emissions a common tactic that people who oppose climate action
that people who oppose climate action
that people who oppose climate action use is to completely ignore risk and
use is to completely ignore risk and
use is to completely ignore risk and focus only on uncertainty but so what
focus only on uncertainty but so what
focus only on uncertainty but so what about uncertainty we do we make
about uncertainty we do we make
about uncertainty we do we make decisions in the face of uncertainty all
decisions in the face of uncertainty all
decisions in the face of uncertainty all the time literally all the time you know
the time literally all the time you know
the time literally all the time you know I bet those of you who drove here
I bet those of you who drove here
I bet those of you who drove here tonight you probably wore your seatbelt
tonight you probably wore your seatbelt
tonight you probably wore your seatbelt and so ask yourself did you wear your
and so ask yourself did you wear your
and so ask yourself did you wear your seatbelt because someone told you with a
seatbelt because someone told you with a
seatbelt because someone told you with a hundred percent uncertainty that you
hundred percent uncertainty that you
hundred percent uncertainty that you would get in a car car crash on the way
would get in a car car crash on the way
would get in a car car crash on the way here probably not so that’s the first
here probably not so that’s the first
here probably not so that’s the first lesson risk management and decision
lesson risk management and decision
lesson risk management and decision making
making
making always have uncertainty ignoring risk
always have uncertainty ignoring risk
always have uncertainty ignoring risk and focusing only on uncertainty as a
and focusing only on uncertainty as a
and focusing only on uncertainty as a distraction in other words in action is
distraction in other words in action is
distraction in other words in action is an action second it takes a village to
an action second it takes a village to
an action second it takes a village to raise a healthy environment the Montreal
raise a healthy environment the Montreal
raise a healthy environment the Montreal Protocol wasn’t just put together by
Protocol wasn’t just put together by
Protocol wasn’t just put together by industry and governments or
industry and governments or
industry and governments or environmental advocacy groups and
environmental advocacy groups and
environmental advocacy groups and scientists it was put together by all of
scientists it was put together by all of
scientists it was put together by all of them they all had a seat at the table
them they all had a seat at the table
them they all had a seat at the table and they all played an important role in
and they all played an important role in
and they all played an important role in the solution and I think in this regard
the solution and I think in this regard
the solution and I think in this regard we’re actually seeing some encouraging
we’re actually seeing some encouraging
we’re actually seeing some encouraging signs today we see not
signs today we see not
signs today we see not just environmental groups concerned
just environmental groups concerned
just environmental groups concerned about climate change but also civic and
about climate change but also civic and
about climate change but also civic and religious groups the military and
religious groups the military and
religious groups the military and businesses so wherever you find yourself
businesses so wherever you find yourself
businesses so wherever you find yourself on that spectrum we need you at the
on that spectrum we need you at the
on that spectrum we need you at the table because if we’re going to solve
table because if we’re going to solve
table because if we’re going to solve global warming it’s gonna take actions
global warming it’s gonna take actions
global warming it’s gonna take actions at all levels from the individual to the
at all levels from the individual to the
at all levels from the individual to the international and everything in between
international and everything in between
international and everything in between third lesson don’t let the perfect be
third lesson don’t let the perfect be
third lesson don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good
the enemy of the good
the enemy of the good while Montreal has become the brake
while Montreal has become the brake
while Montreal has become the brake pedal for stopping ozone depletion and
pedal for stopping ozone depletion and
pedal for stopping ozone depletion and it’s beginning it was more just like a
it’s beginning it was more just like a
it’s beginning it was more just like a tap on the brakes it was actually the
tap on the brakes it was actually the
tap on the brakes it was actually the later amendments to the protocol that
later amendments to the protocol that
later amendments to the protocol that really marked the decision to hit the
really marked the decision to hit the
really marked the decision to hit the brakes on ozone depletion so to those
brakes on ozone depletion so to those
brakes on ozone depletion so to those who despair that the Paris climate
who despair that the Paris climate
who despair that the Paris climate Accord didn’t go far enough or that
Accord didn’t go far enough or that
Accord didn’t go far enough or that you’re limited actions on their own
you’re limited actions on their own
you’re limited actions on their own won’t solve global warming I say don’t
won’t solve global warming I say don’t
won’t solve global warming I say don’t let the perfect to be the enemy of the
let the perfect to be the enemy of the
let the perfect to be the enemy of the good and finally I think it helps us to
good and finally I think it helps us to
good and finally I think it helps us to contemplate the world we’ve avoided
contemplate the world we’ve avoided
contemplate the world we’ve avoided indeed the world we have avoided by
indeed the world we have avoided by
indeed the world we have avoided by enacting the Montreal Protocol is one of
enacting the Montreal Protocol is one of
enacting the Montreal Protocol is one of catastrophic changes to our environment
catastrophic changes to our environment
catastrophic changes to our environment in the human wellbeing by the 2030s
in the human wellbeing by the 2030s
in the human wellbeing by the 2030s we’ll be avoiding millions of new skin
we’ll be avoiding millions of new skin
we’ll be avoiding millions of new skin cancer cases per year with a number that
cancer cases per year with a number that
cancer cases per year with a number that would only grow if I’m lucky I’ll live
would only grow if I’m lucky I’ll live
would only grow if I’m lucky I’ll live long enough to see the end of this
long enough to see the end of this
long enough to see the end of this animation and to see the ozone hole
animation and to see the ozone hole
animation and to see the ozone hole restored to its natural state so as we
restored to its natural state so as we
restored to its natural state so as we write the story for Earth’s climate
write the story for Earth’s climate
write the story for Earth’s climate future for this century and beyond we
future for this century and beyond we
future for this century and beyond we need to ask ourselves what will our
need to ask ourselves what will our
need to ask ourselves what will our actions be so that someone can stand on
actions be so that someone can stand on
actions be so that someone can stand on this stage in 30 or 50 or hundred years
this stage in 30 or 50 or hundred years
this stage in 30 or 50 or hundred years to celebrate the world that they’ve
to celebrate the world that they’ve
to celebrate the world that they’ve avoided thank you
”
Be First to Comment