Las mentiras que nos son útiles | Néstor Guerra | TEDxTarragona

[Music]

good to let you start with a question

simple so please be honest

anything goes

Please raise your hand who

have lied at least once in the

last five years the doors of the

people who have raised their hands

please tell me which ones

you consider good people are

Honest people, we are liars

this is but this is not bad

we use lies and lies is a

mechanism that we use systematically

he and in fact part of the society that

we build through lies

today I am going to talk about a very

special is the lies we make ourselves

to ourselves and in fact I’m going to

talk about the lies we make to

ourselves in a very moment

special of our life that is when

we set up a business is very curious

because at that time many

things in our head and it’s very

interesting how we use these

mechanisms as we try to overcome

I’ve been lucky to work with

many entrepreneurs setting up startups

basically they are basic businesses

technological and innovative in which

there is a context of extreme uncertainty

very high no and he was lucky no longer

just to assemble it myself as

entrepreneur but also be able to work

with them hand in hand and already discovered

a series of mechanisms that repeat themselves

very often there are three mechanisms

that uses entrepreneurs to believe

your own lies

basically this we call biases a

bias is a way in which

distorts reality we think it is

one way when it really is not

let me tell you these three

biases that entrepreneurs use to

create our own lies and it’s

better let him tell how to be able to

overcome this

the first bias the first of all is

very common weapon bias

planning fallacy

basically it’s about making a plan

of business and to love all that

you write in the business plan

It basically consists of wanting

all things are going to be like you

you want them to even think that you

product will be faster prettier

cheaper than the competition and not yet

has not even started making it

good this kind of bias we suffer

constantly and it’s funny because

when you create a business is very

difficult to make a plan is very difficult

predict business plans are

predictive tools will help me

predict what will happen but

it is very difficult to predict what

It has never happened to you

make a business plan

perfect is that if we think about it well

ask a business plan to a

entrepreneur before having his business is

how to ask cristóbal colón for a map

of the world

before there was Spain is that he did not find

an island found a Jewish continent

and this and no and it was not a bad time

cristóbal colon the question is who

was going to imagine a continent and in

medium

the same thing happens with entrepreneurs and

it is true it is very difficult to imagine

things until it does not happen

there is a great example and a cake

very famous that had this kind of bias

called iridium maybe you sound iridium

because today it continues to operate but

I was one of the most

spectacular of that kind of bias of

planning fallacy

it was basically the year 94 group of

visionary entrepreneurs your coming that

he changed the world his idea basically

was to create a system of

global telecommunications in the year 94

there were mobile phones but

it was not obvious that everyone is going to

have a very good phone 12

mobile phones but the cause was not

that the key is that his idea consisted

in creating the global

so for that they had to throw 77

satellites to space to give coverage

via satellite to the entire planet

the investors when they heard this

idea the year 94 they would do the

millions by the pockets

in fact iridium raised five thousand

millions of dollars to launch the

satellites dazzled a lot

effectively and it was amazing because

they worked as animals to launch the

satellites but think that they manufacture the

Hotels is expensive but but the fao space

It is also expensive and when the

satellites in space when you create

the network and use the terminals and call

level that they work already they thought I was going

to collect them millions of the market

target 500 million potentials

customers in the world was the year 2000

that incredible feat is not

agreed from the year 2000 but the

year 2000 we had in Spain, we have to

remember that we did not have a mena

resurfaced in the year 2000 was

when ericsson reminds us

collection of the capital you remember was

kid who would know if the capital

before the little girl motorola took the v

you remember that the start of ubeda

kid all here in the purse that

it filled us mouth to ear he remembered

of that one, it is not fair in that one

moment was when he took out his terminals

to the market they were more or less like

what are you going to see at that moment

they removed those terminals

of course yes the first spectacular the

whole from an incredible aesthetic not

people came to the store

telephony starts those phones today

what can be done with it can be

talk about you want wherever and

wherever the VAT is already going up

He has a conference call with his boss

is in the middle of the Pacific to call

his wife being credible I do not know if it was

a question but the antenna can be

turn not fuck that like the mobile

here and there and going iridium

went bankrupt in eight months and one that will be

18 months

it’s funny because until you have

things in your hand you do not know how to

it involves the world and the market

the second came in second place

with telling you that its terrible is not the

sex that you think is false

consensus sex by false consensus

you think that everyone has the

same problems that you have

this is very typical of entrepreneurs

a problem occurs does not find in

Internet

think that everyone has access to

internet and I miss the kids that

we can see that children and

basically this mechanism our

Parsha everyone thought that the

market size is much larger

what is really good is understood

very well this this bias with a with a

case that I lived very close

I was with a startup that your idea

basically it was to develop

some bracelets we gables know no

eject the little ones consisted

basically in power geoposicionar

exactly that problem to children

how was it lost

basically he’s looking for the boy

with the mobile controlled and in that

good moment because there was the child

not clear

your program what form do you want to solve

It’s very obvious to lose your son so he

Asked a father wants to lose your

degrade and is 25 years old and

I do not know but but from 10 years down

that I call the mission ad gentes was not

true is also that no father who

losing them is as obvious it did not cost us

very much to begin to convince us of

go out and ask

in fact at first we chose

different customer segments

I remember that they were the ones

summer camps summer camp

we know about the colleges of

nurseries and we did it was going out to

talk with daycare we talk to 15

daycare directors to try

understand the problem

to see if it is really happening and

It was funny because when we are

in front of the directors of the

nursery the first interview we

we sat hello good afternoon many

Thanks for your time we are a startup

that we are trying to understand the

problems that you have in day care centers

and we would like to know what kind of

matters when a child lost to

daycare we do not miss children with

some level lost not the farm

school in the museum there not that

no no I am not 25 years old with the

daycare did not lose a child life

it’s based on interviews I have not done some

angry very much said but you

that I bring to you the city council that this

so it’s brutal because a nabai us

refines and are deranged says the

last interviews and from here that is

a bracelet for children and children

controlled and do not get lost and goes and says

look boy in this nursery we have

security protocols that we know

all the nursery teachers and

it does not matter how much shit you put on the child

on the wrist

I will not change any of the

protocols and now that I have the truth

in the nursery so this does not bring

no value like listening to this in

two weeks like jose listening to these

two years he knew that this is the great

difference from a scam when you learn

quick is to say the terrible ones and that

be careful, do not think your problem

everyone has it

maybe the problems that we

we have are ours and they are not easy

to transport other people

and the third type of bias is

possibly the worst of all we’re going

the cost bias

this bias is the reason why a

entrepreneur the more time he spends his

product or service costs more

change the most is the vision that he

wants without listening to what the

market and you can stick years

developing a product and every time

it costs more to change what there are examples

terrible of all this possibly one

of those that I met and I was lucky

to be a mentor was something spectacular

it was a boy that his idea was

Interestingly it was also social was

well pretty what you basically try

is to avoid throwing food in the trash is

terrible because it’s almost a third of the

food that we work and make

throw the trash is terrible but the

goal was basically to develop

a platform that did indeed

developed a web environment a

online tool and an application

by moving to communities

could share food in such a way

that if I do not give it to the first one it’s a

young boy who eats sandwiches all

day and the fourth is a lady

older than he does in tiles as one day

on lentils that the first one can

eat lentils and to turn it into a

little story to avoid throwing

food because in addition the curious thing and of

the food that made me food what

you do is put it in the fridge and when

food rots

really the fridge murdered his what

we thought well not but this concept

when we asked him, people were

very very clear you said you want to throw

junk food

I do not want to be embarrassed to say no

is that the food did not but we made a

experiment and we must see what happened in

the behavior of people because

the opinions everything is very clear but

the behaviors we discover something

terrible

we discovered a concept that we call the

Asquito that took the written

next for example imagine that I

I’m at home eating the cris makes us

lentils for all for children to

I am a woman and good with

teachers and suddenly I found a

crisis pair is a crisis dog but

yes eating the advantages of the fourth to

half spoon

I find a hair the moment to throw

of the hair from the mouth at that moment what

we call asquito and the asquito is the

why we keep pulling a

third of the food to terrible garbage

the human being as is me is not not

question of judging them we are as we are

For better and for worse

but the brutal thing about all this is that it

he quickly realized that the problem

what I wanted to solve could not be

solve with the tool that had

developed takes a year developing

and you know what he told me when

we lost all that said I played very

well we are here with your product

what is called bias by cost

terrible these eyes that you have in front

has seen liquidate being behind by this

kind of good bias you try to tell

the three most typical cases that we have

when we set up a business there is more

without a doubt but these are very

frequent and anyone here in the room

who wants to start a business that was a

startup suffer those facts because I

same riding the suffered them

maybe the question you have all this

Moment is Nestor as we overcome these

biases how we are able to try

do not believe our own lies

well, the mechanism that we use

startups and entrepreneurs for

solve this is called the method

scientific

well exactly nothing new in the

horizon what we do is apply

the very foundations of the

experimentation to learn

quickly because what we do is

our business idea

we identify the most hypotheses

risky we have says hypothesis

we build experiments and tests

some I have counted on these examples

and experiments show us the facts and

the facts we like or do not like

but they are facts and with the facts we see and

We validate in validate our

assumptions or hypotheses

so to this in general we carry

lines tart is a mechanism in which

we build products and businesses based

in the validation with the client in the

validated knowledge and in the

scientific experimentation

nowadays when you create a business of

innovative technological base

there is much uncertainty more things than

we do not know what we know and instead

to create our own lies what

what we do is experiment and try

quickly so he tried on my

own businesses where he could

collaborate help or form part tried

work systematically this approach

scientist so I recommend that

anyone who is here wants to ride

a business maintain this focus

scientist to not believe their own

lies but

I’m going to tell you something that has

learned over the years

even though the lies are not

good

tell you that there are some lies that yes

they are and what lies that help us

very much and that they are not getting all

life is more than small they told us

that you could not lie that if he lied

this one exercised the nose but if we see

a lie they already taught us with

lies but it’s not bad

in fact the lies help us in the

life help us understand the years to

will help us study helps us

surpass ourselves

many athletes when they are in the

limit can not anymore and good when

I came to the corner to propose

they do not pay they are 22 they keep running

the lie is very powerful yes we know

use the session is going to handle the

lie is brutal because what I do

I can say is that it is possible to understand

a world in which the lie

also make us be good people

thank you very much

[Applause]

and