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Knowing the Future is Easier than you Think | Kaustubh Nande | TEDxMunnar


[Music]

[Music] so thank you

so thank you

so thank you vision a future 10 20 30 years from now

vision a future 10 20 30 years from now

vision a future 10 20 30 years from now what do you see in the future we could

what do you see in the future we could

what do you see in the future we could probably have $1 or we would have robots

probably have $1 or we would have robots

probably have $1 or we would have robots take over our lives and kill us so my

take over our lives and kill us so my

take over our lives and kill us so my friends the future is full with

friends the future is full with

friends the future is full with pessimism

pessimism

pessimism yes it’s very optimistic at the same

yes it’s very optimistic at the same

yes it’s very optimistic at the same time if you were to think about a couple

time if you were to think about a couple

time if you were to think about a couple of decades ago in the inventions we have

of decades ago in the inventions we have

of decades ago in the inventions we have had some of you were normal

had some of you were normal

had some of you were normal I wasn’t born in some of these

I wasn’t born in some of these

I wasn’t born in some of these inventions are already the airplane for

inventions are already the airplane for

inventions are already the airplane for example electricity there are

example electricity there are

example electricity there are fundamental in nature of the Internet

fundamental in nature of the Internet

fundamental in nature of the Internet the future in my opinion it’s not that

the future in my opinion it’s not that

the future in my opinion it’s not that difficult to predict I’ll tell you

difficult to predict I’ll tell you

difficult to predict I’ll tell you explain why I mean student of technology

explain why I mean student of technology

explain why I mean student of technology communication and marketing for as long

communication and marketing for as long

communication and marketing for as long as I can remember and I believe that

as I can remember and I believe that

as I can remember and I believe that being and I’ve seen the next three to

being and I’ve seen the next three to

being and I’ve seen the next three to five years where we are headed and very

five years where we are headed and very

five years where we are headed and very good at it is far more difficult then

good at it is far more difficult then

good at it is far more difficult then what we can we can see 10 20 30 years of

what we can we can see 10 20 30 years of

what we can we can see 10 20 30 years of heaven how’s that possible to insect and

heaven how’s that possible to insect and

heaven how’s that possible to insect and the short term muddies were thinking

the short term muddies were thinking

the short term muddies were thinking about the long term and help us

about the long term and help us

about the long term and help us understand boxes so to talk about three

understand boxes so to talk about three

understand boxes so to talk about three things today

things today

things today the first is digitization of our

the first is digitization of our

the first is digitization of our physical world

physical world

physical world the second is consumption patterns of

the second is consumption patterns of

the second is consumption patterns of how they’re changing and the third thing

how they’re changing and the third thing

how they’re changing and the third thing is the inability property intelligence

is the inability property intelligence

is the inability property intelligence so my friends if you want to see and

so my friends if you want to see and

so my friends if you want to see and look back these technologies are not to

look back these technologies are not to

look back these technologies are not to you not to old and if you look at the

you not to old and if you look at the

you not to old and if you look at the about concur

about concur

about concur just surest and neighbor long way to go

just surest and neighbor long way to go

just surest and neighbor long way to go so if you are in this room would not

so if you are in this room would not

so if you are in this room would not deal with technology in the future on a

deal with technology in the future on a

deal with technology in the future on a day-to-day basis this talk is going to

day-to-day basis this talk is going to

day-to-day basis this talk is going to help you understand what to look out for

help you understand what to look out for

help you understand what to look out for what the trains look like ahead let me

what the trains look like ahead let me

what the trains look like ahead let me begin for the first point the

begin for the first point the

begin for the first point the digitalization of physical assets what I

digitalization of physical assets what I

digitalization of physical assets what I mean many many cities around the world

mean many many cities around the world

mean many many cities around the world far more interconnected than we think we

far more interconnected than we think we

far more interconnected than we think we then we click there

then we click there

then we click there most of our devices are interconnected

most of our devices are interconnected

most of our devices are interconnected and the more I think about the future

and the more I think about the future

and the more I think about the future most of the things that we buy and build

most of the things that we buy and build

most of the things that we buy and build are going to be interconnected in nature

are going to be interconnected in nature

are going to be interconnected in nature so fundamentally and all the things that

so fundamentally and all the things that

so fundamentally and all the things that we do engage connected in some way or

we do engage connected in some way or

we do engage connected in some way or the other but what is dependent my

the other but what is dependent my

the other but what is dependent my several other studies 50 billion devices

several other studies 50 billion devices

several other studies 50 billion devices that are gonna be connected by 2020 a

that are gonna be connected by 2020 a

that are gonna be connected by 2020 a McKinsey report a class 16 said the

McKinsey report a class 16 said the

McKinsey report a class 16 said the economic business opportunity is about

economic business opportunity is about

economic business opportunity is about 11 trillion dollars that’s a very big

11 trillion dollars that’s a very big

11 trillion dollars that’s a very big number of a lot of zeros and they most

number of a lot of zeros and they most

number of a lot of zeros and they most important fact about this opportunity is

important fact about this opportunity is

important fact about this opportunity is that software is of a fundamental role

that software is of a fundamental role

that software is of a fundamental role in how we sense and live the world now

in how we sense and live the world now

in how we sense and live the world now why I see this is changing because a lot

why I see this is changing because a lot

why I see this is changing because a lot of enterprises and businesses are

of enterprises and businesses are

of enterprises and businesses are investing money are investing their

investing money are investing their

investing money are investing their dollars and putting where the growth is

dollars and putting where the growth is

dollars and putting where the growth is so this is a very important trend of

so this is a very important trend of

so this is a very important trend of future that we should analyze

future that we should analyze

future that we should analyze predictable it becomes however this is

predictable it becomes however this is

predictable it becomes however this is just one friend of digitalization of our

just one friend of digitalization of our

just one friend of digitalization of our physical world

physical world

physical world what does it really mean but it’s even

what does it really mean but it’s even

what does it really mean but it’s even more augmented with the second trainer

more augmented with the second trainer

more augmented with the second trainer if you think about mr. consumption it

if you think about mr. consumption it

if you think about mr. consumption it makes a little more sense how patterns

makes a little more sense how patterns

makes a little more sense how patterns of consumption are changing

of consumption are changing

of consumption are changing fundamentally changing today most of us

fundamentally changing today most of us

fundamentally changing today most of us in the room consume things digitally

in the room consume things digitally

in the room consume things digitally what you engage with the world and it’s

what you engage with the world and it’s

what you engage with the world and it’s only some level of digital components as

only some level of digital components as

only some level of digital components as a marketing dependence is picking up so

a marketing dependence is picking up so

a marketing dependence is picking up so as a marketing I’m very excited eyes

as a marketing I’m very excited eyes

as a marketing I’m very excited eyes because for the first time in history

because for the first time in history

because for the first time in history you will have companies that are able to

you will have companies that are able to

you will have companies that are able to create market creating products rather

create market creating products rather

create market creating products rather than just selling into each month in the

than just selling into each month in the

than just selling into each month in the traditional way and then of course Apple

traditional way and then of course Apple

traditional way and then of course Apple is the most famous example out of Apple

is the most famous example out of Apple

is the most famous example out of Apple is a category creator but in the last

is a category creator but in the last

is a category creator but in the last decade there are far more companies who

decade there are far more companies who

decade there are far more companies who have created category new category

have created category new category

have created category new category written products and in the previous

written products and in the previous

written products and in the previous three or four decades if you think about

three or four decades if you think about

three or four decades if you think about it and there’s enough public data that

it and there’s enough public data that

it and there’s enough public data that support us so you can think about us and

support us so you can think about us and

support us so you can think about us and combine these friends together think

combine these friends together think

combine these friends together think about them in the short term and long

about them in the short term and long

about them in the short term and long term together it brings us to my third

term together it brings us to my third

term together it brings us to my third point the inevitability of they are

point the inevitability of they are

point the inevitability of they are average intelligence rate as well her

average intelligence rate as well her

average intelligence rate as well her seminal book that we wrote in 2006 and

seminal book that we wrote in 2006 and

seminal book that we wrote in 2006 and the book basically talks about how by

the book basically talks about how by

the book basically talks about how by 2045 artificial intelligence will

2045 artificial intelligence will

2045 artificial intelligence will overtake human intelligence and that’s

overtake human intelligence and that’s

overtake human intelligence and that’s the point in time that II identify and

the point in time that II identify and

the point in time that II identify and not decade ago that even seemed very

not decade ago that even seemed very

not decade ago that even seemed very far-fetched you wouldn’t really think

far-fetched you wouldn’t really think

far-fetched you wouldn’t really think about it very seriously

about it very seriously

about it very seriously but today in 23 2016 17 as you think

but today in 23 2016 17 as you think

but today in 23 2016 17 as you think about it the idea is more than ever

about it the idea is more than ever

about it the idea is more than ever before and the more to think about the

before and the more to think about the

before and the more to think about the future in the long term the probably is

future in the long term the probably is

future in the long term the probably is significantly higher the AI artificial

significantly higher the AI artificial

significantly higher the AI artificial intelligence has many debates around and

intelligence has many debates around and

intelligence has many debates around and one of the biggest ones is whether after

one of the biggest ones is whether after

one of the biggest ones is whether after intelligence search itself in the

intelligence search itself in the

intelligence search itself in the service of humanity and will augment

service of humanity and will augment

service of humanity and will augment human beasts or will it overpower and I

human beasts or will it overpower and I

human beasts or will it overpower and I believe that the King Francis I talked

believe that the King Francis I talked

believe that the King Francis I talked about early on will help us develop a

about early on will help us develop a

about early on will help us develop a more human Center human efficient human

more human Center human efficient human

more human Center human efficient human centric and our intelligence the debate

centric and our intelligence the debate

centric and our intelligence the debate around this point is worth continuing

around this point is worth continuing

around this point is worth continuing because we evaluate with assistance and

because we evaluate with assistance and

because we evaluate with assistance and balance the second change and it’s

balance the second change and it’s

balance the second change and it’s definitely something to keep an eye on

definitely something to keep an eye on

definitely something to keep an eye on so to sum up I talked about three things

so to sum up I talked about three things

so to sum up I talked about three things one is digitalization of our physical

one is digitalization of our physical

one is digitalization of our physical world second I talked about changing

world second I talked about changing

world second I talked about changing consumption patterns and third I talked

consumption patterns and third I talked

consumption patterns and third I talked about the inevitability of air if I want

about the inevitability of air if I want

about the inevitability of air if I want to go back to what I stated many of

to go back to what I stated many of

to go back to what I stated many of these technologies are still we’re to

these technologies are still we’re to

these technologies are still we’re to destroy any quality and what I would

destroy any quality and what I would

destroy any quality and what I would like you to do is not take a three to

like you to do is not take a three to

like you to do is not take a three to five interview to understand how it’s

five interview to understand how it’s

five interview to understand how it’s gonna change but a 10 20 30 year view

gonna change but a 10 20 30 year view

gonna change but a 10 20 30 year view and if you do that the suddenly

and if you do that the suddenly

and if you do that the suddenly understand that the short term models

understand that the short term models

understand that the short term models the picture but if you take the long

the picture but if you take the long

the picture but if you take the long term beautiful the future is pretty much

term beautiful the future is pretty much

term beautiful the future is pretty much inevitable and the more you understand

inevitable and the more you understand

inevitable and the more you understand the more exciting things and the warning

the more exciting things and the warning

the more exciting things and the warning to the standard technology expands the

to the standard technology expands the

to the standard technology expands the bedroom you are in control of what what

bedroom you are in control of what what

bedroom you are in control of what what and how you want to see yourself in the

and how you want to see yourself in the

and how you want to see yourself in the future this dog gives you a basic

future this dog gives you a basic

future this dog gives you a basic understanding of what those three trends

understanding of what those three trends

understanding of what those three trends look like I would likely to situate

look like I would likely to situate

look like I would likely to situate yourself 10 years from now 15 years from

yourself 10 years from now 15 years from

yourself 10 years from now 15 years from now see yourself where you’re heading

now see yourself where you’re heading

now see yourself where you’re heading and take your seat in the future thank

and take your seat in the future thank

and take your seat in the future thank you very much

”

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