How To Make Technology Solve Big Problems? | Jessika Trancik

[Applause]

[Applause] technology has created grave threats to

technology has created grave threats to

technology has created grave threats to life on our planet and now we need

life on our planet and now we need

life on our planet and now we need technology to help us address those

technology to help us address those

technology to help us address those climate change is one example where

climate change is one example where

climate change is one example where fossil fuel energy largely created the

fossil fuel energy largely created the

fossil fuel energy largely created the problem and now we need clean energy

problem and now we need clean energy

problem and now we need clean energy technologies to help us solve it but

technologies to help us solve it but

technologies to help us solve it but we’re not actually that good at

we’re not actually that good at

we’re not actually that good at technological innovation to solve these

technological innovation to solve these

technological innovation to solve these big problems we’re a whole lot better at

big problems we’re a whole lot better at

big problems we’re a whole lot better at creating new gadgets with new

creating new gadgets with new

creating new gadgets with new functionality that we didn’t even know

functionality that we didn’t even know

functionality that we didn’t even know we needed for example I recently heard

we needed for example I recently heard

we needed for example I recently heard about something called the umbrella

about something called the umbrella

about something called the umbrella drone which is a drone that’s

drone which is a drone that’s

drone which is a drone that’s specifically designed to perfectly

specifically designed to perfectly

specifically designed to perfectly balance an umbrella but why aren’t we

balance an umbrella but why aren’t we

balance an umbrella but why aren’t we better at solving technological problems

better at solving technological problems

better at solving technological problems that really matter well as I found over

that really matter well as I found over

that really matter well as I found over the years I think the answer is that

the years I think the answer is that

the years I think the answer is that we’re missing key knowledge about why

we’re missing key knowledge about why

we’re missing key knowledge about why technology improves and how to measure

technology improves and how to measure

technology improves and how to measure it

it and so this makes it really difficult to

and so this makes it really difficult to

and so this makes it really difficult to be deliberate about solving those big

be deliberate about solving those big

be deliberate about solving those big societal problems so let me give you an

societal problems so let me give you an

societal problems so let me give you an example of this and what an example of

example of this and what an example of

example of this and what an example of how I spoke to a room of energy experts

how I spoke to a room of energy experts

how I spoke to a room of energy experts last week and and and why that

last week and and and why that

last week and and and why that discussion made me think about this

discussion made me think about this

discussion made me think about this problem in this way namely that we’re

problem in this way namely that we’re

problem in this way namely that we’re not as good as we might be in explaining

not as good as we might be in explaining

not as good as we might be in explaining where technological progress comes from

where technological progress comes from

where technological progress comes from so the question that I asked this room

so the question that I asked this room

so the question that I asked this room of energy experts was why do you think

of energy experts was why do you think

of energy experts was why do you think solar energy costs have fallen and

solar energy costs have fallen and

solar energy costs have fallen and specifically I asked how much of the

specifically I asked how much of the

specifically I asked how much of the cost decline do you think came from

cost decline do you think came from

cost decline do you think came from government funding for research and how

government funding for research and how

government funding for research and how much for how much came from government

much for how much came from government

much for how much came from government incentives to grow markets for this

incentives to grow markets for this

incentives to grow markets for this technology and this is a technology

technology and this is a technology

technology and this is a technology solar energy that’s often held up as a

solar energy that’s often held up as a

solar energy that’s often held up as a success story of clean energy innovation

success story of clean energy innovation

success story of clean energy innovation and this room of experts focused on

and this room of experts focused on

and this room of experts focused on renewable energy but there was no

renewable energy but there was no

renewable energy but there was no agreement on the answer and the answers

agreement on the answer and the answers

agreement on the answer and the answers were all over the place and here’s an

were all over the place and here’s an

were all over the place and here’s an example of some of the challenges that

example of some of the challenges that

example of some of the challenges that we see in measuring technological

we see in measuring technological

we see in measuring technological progress let’s take the example of the

progress let’s take the example of the

progress let’s take the example of the electric car everybody knows that the

electric car everybody knows that the

electric car everybody knows that the electric car has evolved over time but

electric car has evolved over time but

electric car has evolved over time but how close is it to being an option that

how close is it to being an option that

how close is it to being an option that can see widespread adoption and

can see widespread adoption and

can see widespread adoption and specifically can we answer the question

specifically can we answer the question

specifically can we answer the question how many cars on the road could be

how many cars on the road could be

how many cars on the road could be replaced by a low-cost electric vehicle

replaced by a low-cost electric vehicle

replaced by a low-cost electric vehicle today and still meet our daily energy

today and still meet our daily energy

today and still meet our daily energy driving needs and what I found is that

driving needs and what I found is that

driving needs and what I found is that people aren’t able to answer this

people aren’t able to answer this

people aren’t able to answer this question this very basic question but if

question this very basic question but if

question this very basic question but if we don’t know how to explain techno

we don’t know how to explain techno

we don’t know how to explain techno technological progress as we saw from

technological progress as we saw from

technological progress as we saw from the example of solar energy and we’re

the example of solar energy and we’re

the example of solar energy and we’re not really able to measure it as we saw

not really able to measure it as we saw

not really able to measure it as we saw in the example of electric cars then how

in the example of electric cars then how

in the example of electric cars then how are we going to know how to invest our

are we going to know how to invest our

are we going to know how to invest our time and money best in solving these

time and money best in solving these

time and money best in solving these problems well so this is really what

problems well so this is really what

problems well so this is really what motivated my research and what I can say

motivated my research and what I can say

motivated my research and what I can say now is that I think we can fill these

now is that I think we can fill these

now is that I think we can fill these gaps and our knowledge about what drives

gaps and our knowledge about what drives

gaps and our knowledge about what drives technological progress and how to

technological progress and how to

technological progress and how to measure it and as a result we’re going

measure it and as a result we’re going

measure it and as a result we’re going to be able to make better decisions

to be able to make better decisions

to be able to make better decisions about how to solve these problems like

about how to solve these problems like

about how to solve these problems like climate change and maybe other big

climate change and maybe other big

climate change and maybe other big problems in the future so let me go

problems in the future so let me go

problems in the future so let me go through how we can actually answer these

through how we can actually answer these

through how we can actually answer these kinds of questions

kinds of questions

kinds of questions let’s take solar energy so solar module

let’s take solar energy so solar module

let’s take solar energy so solar module costs have fallen by two orders of

costs have fallen by two orders of

costs have fallen by two orders of magnitude over the last 40 years and 90%

magnitude over the last 40 years and 90%

magnitude over the last 40 years and 90% in the last decade why did this happen

in the last decade why did this happen

in the last decade why did this happen this is a technology that’s seen faster

this is a technology that’s seen faster

this is a technology that’s seen faster and more sustained cost improvement than

and more sustained cost improvement than

and more sustained cost improvement than other energy technologies where did this

other energy technologies where did this

other energy technologies where did this come from to answer this question what

come from to answer this question what

come from to answer this question what we did in my research

we did in my research

we did in my research group was to break the technology up

group was to break the technology up

group was to break the technology up into all of its cost components there

into all of its cost components there

into all of its cost components there are a few different categories of cost

are a few different categories of cost

are a few different categories of cost components materials labor equipment and

components materials labor equipment and

components materials labor equipment and then we want to ask what changed about

then we want to ask what changed about

then we want to ask what changed about this device and what changed about the

this device and what changed about the

this device and what changed about the manufacturing process so there are a

manufacturing process so there are a

manufacturing process so there are a number of different changes but they can

number of different changes but they can

number of different changes but they can be grouped into these three categories

be grouped into these three categories

be grouped into these three categories changes to the device physics changes to

changes to the device physics changes to

changes to the device physics changes to the manufacturing process and changes to

the manufacturing process and changes to

the manufacturing process and changes to the manufacturing scale now these what

the manufacturing scale now these what

the manufacturing scale now these what we’re calling low-level mechanisms these

we’re calling low-level mechanisms these

we’re calling low-level mechanisms these changes act on different components of

changes act on different components of

changes act on different components of the device and some may act on one

the device and some may act on one

the device and some may act on one component and some may act on many more

component and some may act on many more

component and some may act on many more and the challenge the real

and the challenge the real

and the challenge the real methodological challenge here was how to

methodological challenge here was how to

methodological challenge here was how to model this mathematically to capture the

model this mathematically to capture the

model this mathematically to capture the effect of each mechanism on the total

effect of each mechanism on the total

effect of each mechanism on the total cost of solar energy but we did this and

cost of solar energy but we did this and

cost of solar energy but we did this and after doing this we can say how much

after doing this we can say how much

after doing this we can say how much these low-level mechanisms mattered so

these low-level mechanisms mattered so

these low-level mechanisms mattered so which one was most important what we see

which one was most important what we see

which one was most important what we see is that the improvement in conversion

is that the improvement in conversion

is that the improvement in conversion efficiency that’s the efficiency with

efficiency that’s the efficiency with

efficiency that’s the efficiency with which you’re converting the energy and

which you’re converting the energy and

which you’re converting the energy and sunlight to electricity is the single

sunlight to electricity is the single

sunlight to electricity is the single most important mechanism but also we see

most important mechanism but also we see

most important mechanism but also we see that the reasons the fact there were

that the reasons the fact there were

that the reasons the fact there were many different reasons that the cost

many different reasons that the cost

many different reasons that the cost came down there are many different

came down there are many different

came down there are many different mechanisms that were at play and I think

mechanisms that were at play and I think

mechanisms that were at play and I think that may be why this technology has seen

that may be why this technology has seen

that may be why this technology has seen more sustained improvement over time now

more sustained improvement over time now

more sustained improvement over time now that we know what happened to the device

that we know what happened to the device

that we know what happened to the device and the manufacturing process we can say

and the manufacturing process we can say

and the manufacturing process we can say something about what the human efforts

something about what the human efforts

something about what the human efforts were in the company strategies that led

were in the company strategies that led

were in the company strategies that led to this really impressive cost decline

to this really impressive cost decline

to this really impressive cost decline an unprecedented cost decline among

an unprecedented cost decline among

an unprecedented cost decline among energy technologies and these are what

energy technologies and these are what

energy technologies and these are what I’m calling the high level mechanisms

I’m calling the high level mechanisms

I’m calling the high level mechanisms research and development that’s research

research and development that’s research

research and development that’s research by companies as well as

by companies as well as

by companies as well as government-funded research

government-funded research

government-funded research learning-by-doing which is the process

learning-by-doing which is the process

learning-by-doing which is the process of getting better at doing something the

of getting better at doing something the

of getting better at doing something the more you do it and faster at it and also

more you do it and faster at it and also

more you do it and faster at it and also economies of scale now we can answer the

economies of scale now we can answer the

economies of scale now we can answer the original question I asked the room of

original question I asked the room of

original question I asked the room of energy experts which is how much of the

energy experts which is how much of the

energy experts which is how much of the cost decline in solar modules came from

cost decline in solar modules came from

cost decline in solar modules came from government invest

government invest

government invest research and how much came from

research and how much came from

research and how much came from government incentives to grow markets

government incentives to grow markets

government incentives to grow markets that led to lots of efforts by many

that led to lots of efforts by many

that led to lots of efforts by many different private companies around the

different private companies around the

different private companies around the world roughly 70% of the cost decline

world roughly 70% of the cost decline

world roughly 70% of the cost decline came from market expansion policies and

came from market expansion policies and

came from market expansion policies and the rest from government-funded R&D so

the rest from government-funded R&D so

the rest from government-funded R&D so now we can answer this question how much

now we can answer this question how much

now we can answer this question how much of the solar costs decline came from

of the solar costs decline came from

of the solar costs decline came from government funding how much from market

government funding how much from market

government funding how much from market expansion policies and this is the right

expansion policies and this is the right

expansion policies and this is the right answer now let’s take the example of

answer now let’s take the example of

answer now let’s take the example of electric cars and ask ok how these

electric cars and ask ok how these

electric cars and ask ok how these technologies are improving but how can

technologies are improving but how can

technologies are improving but how can we measure progress toward where we want

we measure progress toward where we want

we measure progress toward where we want to go toward our end goal one of the big

to go toward our end goal one of the big

to go toward our end goal one of the big barriers to our end goal to the adoption

barriers to our end goal to the adoption

barriers to our end goal to the adoption of electric vehicles is to meet the

of electric vehicles is to meet the

of electric vehicles is to meet the range requirements of drivers right so a

range requirements of drivers right so a

range requirements of drivers right so a lot of people are deterred from buying

lot of people are deterred from buying

lot of people are deterred from buying an electric vehicle because they have

an electric vehicle because they have

an electric vehicle because they have what’s called range anxiety which is the

what’s called range anxiety which is the

what’s called range anxiety which is the fear that their car will run out of

fear that their car will run out of

fear that their car will run out of juice without the possibility to

juice without the possibility to

juice without the possibility to recharge so his range anxiety justified

recharge so his range anxiety justified

recharge so his range anxiety justified well it turns out that on the vast

well it turns out that on the vast

well it turns out that on the vast majority of days it’s not and I’m going

majority of days it’s not and I’m going

majority of days it’s not and I’m going to show you why and how we can go about

to show you why and how we can go about

to show you why and how we can go about answering this question so I’m going to

answering this question so I’m going to

answering this question so I’m going to show you the answer for this one car the

show you the answer for this one car the

show you the answer for this one car the Nissan Leaf but you can check out other

Nissan Leaf but you can check out other

Nissan Leaf but you can check out other cars on this app that my group released

cars on this app that my group released

cars on this app that my group released last year but we’ve actually just

last year but we’ve actually just

last year but we’ve actually just updated today to add more models and as

updated today to add more models and as

updated today to add more models and as you can see the Nissan Leaf it’s it’s

you can see the Nissan Leaf it’s it’s

you can see the Nissan Leaf it’s it’s labeled number one there and this is a

labeled number one there and this is a

labeled number one there and this is a cost this is a car that costs below that

cost this is a car that costs below that

cost this is a car that costs below that that’s a low cost car its costs are well

that’s a low cost car its costs are well

that’s a low cost car its costs are well below the average car the average new

below the average car the average new

below the average car the average new car sold in the US today and also even

car sold in the US today and also even

car sold in the US today and also even with today’s electricity supply mix this

with today’s electricity supply mix this

with today’s electricity supply mix this is a car that can save substantial

is a car that can save substantial

is a car that can save substantial emissions 30% or more relative to the

emissions 30% or more relative to the

emissions 30% or more relative to the internal combustion engine a similar

internal combustion engine a similar

internal combustion engine a similar internal combustion engine car so

internal combustion engine car so

internal combustion engine car so already today if you buy this car you

already today if you buy this car you

already today if you buy this car you can reduce your greenhouse gas emissions

can reduce your greenhouse gas emissions

can reduce your greenhouse gas emissions but can you buy this car will it meet

but can you buy this car will it meet

but can you buy this car will it meet your range requirements and will it meet

your range requirements and will it meet

your range requirements and will it meet the requirements of the entire

the requirements of the entire

the requirements of the entire population in the US so that’s the

population in the US so that’s the

population in the US so that’s the question we want to answer for this

question we want to answer for this

question we want to answer for this Nissan Leaf and I’ll go through how we

Nissan Leaf and I’ll go through how we

Nissan Leaf and I’ll go through how we can do this well to do this we actually

can do this well to do this we actually

can do this well to do this we actually have to study how

have to study how

have to study how people are driving on a second-by-second

people are driving on a second-by-second

people are driving on a second-by-second basis across the country

basis across the country

basis across the country that’s because depending on how you’re

that’s because depending on how you’re

that’s because depending on how you’re driving on a second-by-second basis your

driving on a second-by-second basis your

driving on a second-by-second basis your energy consumption can be very different

energy consumption can be very different

energy consumption can be very different the range of your car is not a single

the range of your car is not a single

the range of your car is not a single number depending on how you’re driving

number depending on how you’re driving

number depending on how you’re driving it can fluctuate substantially as I’m

it can fluctuate substantially as I’m

it can fluctuate substantially as I’m showing here where I’m showing different

showing here where I’m showing different

showing here where I’m showing different what are called drive cycles for the

what are called drive cycles for the

what are called drive cycles for the same car so how far your car can go

same car so how far your car can go

same car so how far your car can go depends on how you’re driving as well as

depends on how you’re driving as well as

depends on how you’re driving as well as a number of other factors so how do we

a number of other factors so how do we

a number of other factors so how do we study an entire US population based on

study an entire US population based on

study an entire US population based on how they’re driving on a

how they’re driving on a

how they’re driving on a second-by-second basis the data didn’t

second-by-second basis the data didn’t

second-by-second basis the data didn’t exist to do this when we started out

exist to do this when we started out

exist to do this when we started out doing the research and so we developed a

doing the research and so we developed a

doing the research and so we developed a model to probabilistically match

model to probabilistically match

model to probabilistically match information and different kinds of data

information and different kinds of data

information and different kinds of data sets to build a data set on the

sets to build a data set on the

sets to build a data set on the second-by-second driving behavior of

second-by-second driving behavior of

second-by-second driving behavior of millions of cars and people across the

millions of cars and people across the

millions of cars and people across the US across all of these no road networks

US across all of these no road networks

US across all of these no road networks and now we can answer the question how

and now we can answer the question how

and now we can answer the question how many cars could be replaced by a Nissan

many cars could be replaced by a Nissan

many cars could be replaced by a Nissan Leaf and still meet that daily energy

Leaf and still meet that daily energy

Leaf and still meet that daily energy needs of those drivers without having to

needs of those drivers without having to

needs of those drivers without having to recharge and that number is 87% for that

recharge and that number is 87% for that

recharge and that number is 87% for that particular car the number is actually

particular car the number is actually

particular car the number is actually remarkably similar across more sprawling

remarkably similar across more sprawling

remarkably similar across more sprawling and more dense cities so even though the

and more dense cities so even though the

and more dense cities so even though the likelihood that you own a car and you

likelihood that you own a car and you

likelihood that you own a car and you drive a cars very could be very

drive a cars very could be very

drive a cars very could be very different in Houston and New York

different in Houston and New York

different in Houston and New York there’s a certain similarity in how

there’s a certain similarity in how

there’s a certain similarity in how people drive that we discovered through

people drive that we discovered through

people drive that we discovered through this research which means that this

this research which means that this

this research which means that this adoption potential is really quite

adoption potential is really quite

adoption potential is really quite similar across these cities so now we

similar across these cities so now we

similar across these cities so now we can answer the question what percentage

can answer the question what percentage

can answer the question what percentage of cars on the road could be replaced by

of cars on the road could be replaced by

of cars on the road could be replaced by the Nissan Leaf or another similar kind

the Nissan Leaf or another similar kind

the Nissan Leaf or another similar kind of low-cost electric vehicle like the

of low-cost electric vehicle like the

of low-cost electric vehicle like the Ford Focus and there are other options

Ford Focus and there are other options

Ford Focus and there are other options and still meet daily energy needs and

and still meet daily energy needs and

and still meet daily energy needs and that number as I showed you before is

that number as I showed you before is

that number as I showed you before is about 90% we can do this for thousands

about 90% we can do this for thousands

about 90% we can do this for thousands of other car models looking forward as

of other car models looking forward as

of other car models looking forward as batteries improve you can increase that

batteries improve you can increase that

batteries improve you can increase that adoption potential but what we also see

adoption potential but what we also see

adoption potential but what we also see in this research is that there’s a small

in this research is that there’s a small

in this research is that there’s a small number of high-energy days which are

number of high-energy days which are

number of high-energy days which are going to be difficult to satisfy it’s

going to be difficult to satisfy it’s

going to be difficult to satisfy it’s going to be difficult to satisfy those

going to be difficult to satisfy those

going to be difficult to satisfy those needs with an electric vehicle

needs with an electric vehicle

needs with an electric vehicle so one of the things that we’re doing is

so one of the things that we’re doing is

so one of the things that we’re doing is to use the predictive power in our model

to use the predictive power in our model

to use the predictive power in our model to develop an app that will allow people

to develop an app that will allow people

to develop an app that will allow people to find the the vehicle that meets their

to find the the vehicle that meets their

to find the the vehicle that meets their needs – so to match cars to people’s

needs – so to match cars to people’s

needs – so to match cars to people’s needs on a particular day as well as

needs on a particular day as well as

needs on a particular day as well as when they’re considering what what car

when they’re considering what what car

when they’re considering what what car they may want to buy so this may help

they may want to buy so this may help

they may want to buy so this may help people become more comfortable those

people become more comfortable those

people become more comfortable those that want to buy an electric vehicle

that want to buy an electric vehicle

that want to buy an electric vehicle give them the information empower them

give them the information empower them

give them the information empower them with the information to perhaps get over

with the information to perhaps get over

with the information to perhaps get over their range anxiety and you know there

their range anxiety and you know there

their range anxiety and you know there are other lessons that come from this

are other lessons that come from this

are other lessons that come from this research as well so it in the solar

research as well so it in the solar

research as well so it in the solar energy example with this model of why

energy example with this model of why

energy example with this model of why technology’s particular technology

technology’s particular technology

technology’s particular technology improves and where that progress comes

improves and where that progress comes

improves and where that progress comes from we’re also able to provide advice

from we’re also able to provide advice

from we’re also able to provide advice on to engineers as well as companies and

on to engineers as well as companies and

on to engineers as well as companies and government policymakers as to where what

government policymakers as to where what

government policymakers as to where what strategies might be most effective to

strategies might be most effective to

strategies might be most effective to drive the cost down further and as I

drive the cost down further and as I

drive the cost down further and as I mentioned in the example of the electric

mentioned in the example of the electric

mentioned in the example of the electric vehicle now that we can measure progress

vehicle now that we can measure progress

vehicle now that we can measure progress against people’s needs we can also

against people’s needs we can also

against people’s needs we can also provide some insight on how to develop

provide some insight on how to develop

provide some insight on how to develop this technology further both of these

this technology further both of these

this technology further both of these are technologies that could reduce

are technologies that could reduce

are technologies that could reduce greenhouse gas emissions and there are

greenhouse gas emissions and there are

greenhouse gas emissions and there are many other technologies that that could

many other technologies that that could

many other technologies that that could could help with that as well where we

could help with that as well where we

could help with that as well where we can apply this approach so what does all

can apply this approach so what does all

can apply this approach so what does all of this mean well as I as I’ve shown

of this mean well as I as I’ve shown

of this mean well as I as I’ve shown through these two examples we actually

through these two examples we actually

through these two examples we actually can measure progress toward

can measure progress toward

can measure progress toward technological progress toward these

technological progress toward these

technological progress toward these broad societal goals and we can explain

broad societal goals and we can explain

broad societal goals and we can explain where it comes from this will help us

where it comes from this will help us

where it comes from this will help us make better decisions about how to

make better decisions about how to

make better decisions about how to invest our time and money in developing

invest our time and money in developing

invest our time and money in developing technologies that will help us solve

technologies that will help us solve

technologies that will help us solve problems like climate change and maybe

problems like climate change and maybe

problems like climate change and maybe other problems as well in the future so

How To Make Technology Solve Big Problems? | Jessika Trancik | TEDxCambridgeSalon

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