How to feed a warming world? | Kevin McGeeney | TEDxLausanne

the closest most of us guess to a food

the closest most of us guess to a food crisis is in the news or perhaps a

crisis is in the news or perhaps a

crisis is in the news or perhaps a request for a donation but right now the

request for a donation but right now the

request for a donation but right now the UN is pleading for funds to support the

UN is pleading for funds to support the

UN is pleading for funds to support the 20 million most in need

20 million most in need

20 million most in need out of the 70 million believed to be in

out of the 70 million believed to be in

out of the 70 million believed to be in food crisis the UN NGOs and individual

food crisis the UN NGOs and individual

food crisis the UN NGOs and individual governments will quickly or slowly raise

governments will quickly or slowly raise

governments will quickly or slowly raise money buy and distribute aid a simple

money buy and distribute aid a simple

money buy and distribute aid a simple plan where and when there are shortages

plan where and when there are shortages

plan where and when there are shortages of food supplies prices move higher

of food supplies prices move higher

of food supplies prices move higher hoarding can start and governments often

hoarding can start and governments often

hoarding can start and governments often then look to restrict trade in food

then look to restrict trade in food

then look to restrict trade in food which is hoarding at a national level

which is hoarding at a national level

which is hoarding at a national level moving prices higher with speculators

moving prices higher with speculators

moving prices higher with speculators joining the cycle extreme weather back

joining the cycle extreme weather back

joining the cycle extreme weather back in 2010 reduced world wheat harvests by

in 2010 reduced world wheat harvests by

in 2010 reduced world wheat harvests by five percent now that might sound rather

five percent now that might sound rather

five percent now that might sound rather dull and I may have just introduced the

dull and I may have just introduced the

dull and I may have just introduced the most boring slide ever seen at TEDx

most boring slide ever seen at TEDx

most boring slide ever seen at TEDx lizanne but this five percent reduction

lizanne but this five percent reduction

lizanne but this five percent reduction in wheat harvests resulted in an 85

in wheat harvests resulted in an 85

in wheat harvests resulted in an 85 percent increase in wheat prices in

percent increase in wheat prices in

percent increase in wheat prices in under two months the supply and demand

under two months the supply and demand

under two months the supply and demand in agriculture can be very finely

in agriculture can be very finely

in agriculture can be very finely balanced now for countries that spend

balanced now for countries that spend

balanced now for countries that spend maybe 40 percent of their income on food

maybe 40 percent of their income on food

maybe 40 percent of their income on food this fine balance can be very dangerous

this fine balance can be very dangerous

this fine balance can be very dangerous and however well or badly you think we

and however well or badly you think we

and however well or badly you think we are handling food crises now climate

are handling food crises now climate

are handling food crises now climate change will make it harder the tragedies

change will make it harder the tragedies

change will make it harder the tragedies of mass migration and famine often have

of mass migration and famine often have

of mass migration and famine often have climate change as their root cause and

climate change as their root cause and

climate change as their root cause and we have an expectation of more and more

we have an expectation of more and more

we have an expectation of more and more dramatic climate events in the future so

dramatic climate events in the future so

dramatic climate events in the future so what if the numbers facing food crisis

what if the numbers facing food crisis

what if the numbers facing food crisis were to double what if it ran to

were to double what if it ran to

were to double what if it ran to hundreds of millions of people who could

hundreds of millions of people who could

hundreds of millions of people who could rule it out and why would we think that

rule it out and why would we think that

rule it out and why would we think that our existing responses to food crisis

our existing responses to food crisis

our existing responses to food crisis would be able to cope

would be able to cope

would be able to cope to get ahead of the problem we might

to get ahead of the problem we might

to get ahead of the problem we might look to develop food reserves they would

look to develop food reserves they would

look to develop food reserves they would need to be raw materials such as wheat

need to be raw materials such as wheat

need to be raw materials such as wheat corn vegetable oil proteins and many

corn vegetable oil proteins and many

corn vegetable oil proteins and many countries do maintain some form of food

countries do maintain some form of food

countries do maintain some form of food reserve notably China but also Tanzania

reserve notably China but also Tanzania

reserve notably China but also Tanzania Kenya and others the big problem with

Kenya and others the big problem with

Kenya and others the big problem with food reserves is the capital cost now

food reserves is the capital cost now

food reserves is the capital cost now for Switzerland a food reserve to cover

for Switzerland a food reserve to cover

for Switzerland a food reserve to cover it’s 8 million people would cost a few

it’s 8 million people would cost a few

it’s 8 million people would cost a few billion dollars to fill and if we wanted

billion dollars to fill and if we wanted

billion dollars to fill and if we wanted to maintain our consumption of cheese

to maintain our consumption of cheese

to maintain our consumption of cheese and chocolates

and chocolates

and chocolates maybe 10 billion dollars more globally a

maybe 10 billion dollars more globally a

maybe 10 billion dollars more globally a goal to fill a food reserve to cover

goal to fill a food reserve to cover

goal to fill a food reserve to cover hundreds of millions of people would

hundreds of millions of people would

hundreds of millions of people would cost hundreds of billions of dollars and

cost hundreds of billions of dollars and

cost hundreds of billions of dollars and managing the reserves would cost

managing the reserves would cost

managing the reserves would cost additional billions annually now should

additional billions annually now should

additional billions annually now should society wish to pursue that path I know

society wish to pursue that path I know

society wish to pursue that path I know where the money is it’s in your pockets

where the money is it’s in your pockets

where the money is it’s in your pockets where we would like it to stay now

where we would like it to stay now

where we would like it to stay now storage is not the answer what we need

storage is not the answer what we need

storage is not the answer what we need to find is a global supply chain for

to find is a global supply chain for

to find is a global supply chain for agricultural products not already

agricultural products not already

agricultural products not already destined for food it needs to be

destined for food it needs to be

destined for food it needs to be available 12 months of the year ideally

available 12 months of the year ideally

available 12 months of the year ideally under the control of government so it

under the control of government so it

under the control of government so it could be redirected into emergency aid

could be redirected into emergency aid

could be redirected into emergency aid it needs to be big enough both to meet

it needs to be big enough both to meet

it needs to be big enough both to meet an aid need and be a credible deterrent

an aid need and be a credible deterrent

an aid need and be a credible deterrent against food price speculation and food

against food price speculation and food

against food price speculation and food hoarding well we have it crop based

hoarding well we have it crop based

hoarding well we have it crop based biofuel biofuel is made from crops such

biofuel biofuel is made from crops such

biofuel biofuel is made from crops such as corn soya beans sugarcane and wheat

as corn soya beans sugarcane and wheat

as corn soya beans sugarcane and wheat and these crops are harvested on six

and these crops are harvested on six

and these crops are harvested on six continents and then converted into

continents and then converted into

continents and then converted into biofuel to be blended with both gasoline

biofuel to be blended with both gasoline

biofuel to be blended with both gasoline and diesel the co2 emissions from

and diesel the co2 emissions from

and diesel the co2 emissions from biofuel can be less than half those of

biofuel can be less than half those of

biofuel can be less than half those of fossil fuel but the crops used to make

fossil fuel but the crops used to make

fossil fuel but the crops used to make biofuel could feed 400 million people

biofuel could feed 400 million people

biofuel could feed 400 million people all year round

all year round

all year round now some suggest that these biofuel

now some suggest that these biofuel

now some suggest that these biofuel crops should always be directed to

crops should always be directed to

crops should always be directed to assist with malnutrition and certainly

assist with malnutrition and certainly

assist with malnutrition and certainly malnutrition deserves our continued

malnutrition deserves our continued

malnutrition deserves our continued attention but it’s tragedy exists as an

attention but it’s tragedy exists as an

attention but it’s tragedy exists as an issue of poverty not of supply

issue of poverty not of supply

issue of poverty not of supply these crops that are grown for biofuel

these crops that are grown for biofuel

these crops that are grown for biofuel simply would not get planted if there is

simply would not get planted if there is

simply would not get planted if there is no biofuel market our governments look

no biofuel market our governments look

no biofuel market our governments look to promote biofuel as they reduce

to promote biofuel as they reduce

to promote biofuel as they reduce greenhouse gas emissions increase energy

greenhouse gas emissions increase energy

greenhouse gas emissions increase energy security and rural employment the

security and rural employment the

security and rural employment the overwhelming majority of all biofuel

overwhelming majority of all biofuel

overwhelming majority of all biofuel used is done so under government

used is done so under government

used is done so under government compulsion with structures in place to

compulsion with structures in place to

compulsion with structures in place to monitor compliance so whether oil

monitor compliance so whether oil

monitor compliance so whether oil companies want to or not

companies want to or not

companies want to or not in over 60 countries they are forced to

in over 60 countries they are forced to

in over 60 countries they are forced to supply biofuel blend it into both

supply biofuel blend it into both

supply biofuel blend it into both gasoline and diesel now this makes it

gasoline and diesel now this makes it

gasoline and diesel now this makes it big business and you will buy a fuel

big business and you will buy a fuel

big business and you will buy a fuel revenues topping 135 billion dollars so

revenues topping 135 billion dollars so

revenues topping 135 billion dollars so can we find a way in times of crisis to

can we find a way in times of crisis to

can we find a way in times of crisis to redirect these crops from biofuel use

redirect these crops from biofuel use

redirect these crops from biofuel use into emergency food aid our individual

into emergency food aid our individual

into emergency food aid our individual governments would need the authority to

governments would need the authority to

governments would need the authority to take over biofuel crop supply contracts

take over biofuel crop supply contracts

take over biofuel crop supply contracts well this sort of power already exists

well this sort of power already exists

well this sort of power already exists in the United States the agency FEMA has

in the United States the agency FEMA has

in the United States the agency FEMA has the right in times of emergency to

the right in times of emergency to

the right in times of emergency to requisition materials from private hands

requisition materials from private hands

requisition materials from private hands many other countries have similar

many other countries have similar

many other countries have similar structures what about the cost does it

structures what about the cost does it

structures what about the cost does it have to be a cost-free is our favorite

have to be a cost-free is our favorite

have to be a cost-free is our favorite price well the biofuel producers they

price well the biofuel producers they

price well the biofuel producers they don’t really want to sell their crops

don’t really want to sell their crops

don’t really want to sell their crops for money which is good because we don’t

for money which is good because we don’t

for money which is good because we don’t want to give them any biofuel producers

want to give them any biofuel producers

want to give them any biofuel producers want to sell biofuel okay

want to sell biofuel okay

want to sell biofuel okay so let’s give them that but not real

so let’s give them that but not real

so let’s give them that but not real biofuel virtual biofuel government

biofuel virtual biofuel government

biofuel virtual biofuel government agency is taking in the food crops could

agency is taking in the food crops could

agency is taking in the food crops could pay for them with virtual biofuel in the

pay for them with virtual biofuel in the

pay for them with virtual biofuel in the form of credits the biofuel producers

form of credits the biofuel producers

form of credits the biofuel producers could sell these credits to oil

could sell these credits to oil

could sell these credits to oil companies who would gladly buy them

companies who would gladly buy them

companies who would gladly buy them provided they were allowed include them

provided they were allowed include them

provided they were allowed include them into their computations of obligated

into their computations of obligated

into their computations of obligated supply let’s suppose Exxon have the

supply let’s suppose Exxon have the

supply let’s suppose Exxon have the obligation to supply 300 thousand cubic

obligation to supply 300 thousand cubic

obligation to supply 300 thousand cubic meters of biofuel in one particular

meters of biofuel in one particular

meters of biofuel in one particular country it might meet that

country it might meet that

country it might meet that negation to government by supplying

negation to government by supplying

negation to government by supplying 200,000 cubic meters of biofuel and

200,000 cubic meters of biofuel and

200,000 cubic meters of biofuel and 100,000 cubic meters a virtual biofuel

100,000 cubic meters a virtual biofuel

100,000 cubic meters a virtual biofuel in the form of credits the revenue from

in the form of credits the revenue from

in the form of credits the revenue from selling the credits to the oil companies

selling the credits to the oil companies

selling the credits to the oil companies will keep the biofuel producer intact

will keep the biofuel producer intact

will keep the biofuel producer intact agriculture would continue to plant and

agriculture would continue to plant and

agriculture would continue to plant and harvest as before they’re unaffected oil

harvest as before they’re unaffected oil

harvest as before they’re unaffected oil companies would likely end up slightly

companies would likely end up slightly

companies would likely end up slightly better off as they get to supply more of

better off as they get to supply more of

better off as they get to supply more of their fossil fuel instead of biofuel

their fossil fuel instead of biofuel

their fossil fuel instead of biofuel consumers benefit from more stable food

consumers benefit from more stable food

consumers benefit from more stable food prices as these biofuel crops are in

prices as these biofuel crops are in

prices as these biofuel crops are in effect acting like an intervention

effect acting like an intervention

effect acting like an intervention buffer into the markets and it should

buffer into the markets and it should

buffer into the markets and it should also lessen hoarding in advance of

also lessen hoarding in advance of

also lessen hoarding in advance of climate events which is good news for

climate events which is good news for

climate events which is good news for people stocking up on alcohol ahead of a

people stocking up on alcohol ahead of a

people stocking up on alcohol ahead of a hurricane

hurricane

hurricane so doesn’t need to be an incremental

so doesn’t need to be an incremental

so doesn’t need to be an incremental financial cost on anyone additionally

financial cost on anyone additionally

financial cost on anyone additionally there’s no challenge to market freedoms

there’s no challenge to market freedoms

there’s no challenge to market freedoms here these biofuel markets were set up

here these biofuel markets were set up

here these biofuel markets were set up by governments they’re managed by

by governments they’re managed by

by governments they’re managed by governments they are ours to control the

governments they are ours to control the

governments they are ours to control the real cost is going to be temporarily

real cost is going to be temporarily

real cost is going to be temporarily higher greenhouse gas emissions from

higher greenhouse gas emissions from

higher greenhouse gas emissions from lower biofuel use during the operation

lower biofuel use during the operation

lower biofuel use during the operation of the program however okay there is a

of the program however okay there is a

of the program however okay there is a however there’s always a catch

however there’s always a catch

however there’s always a catch speculators would lose out on the

speculators would lose out on the

speculators would lose out on the opportunity to profit from food crisis

how sorry should we feel maybe somebody

how sorry should we feel maybe somebody could start an online fundraising

could start an online fundraising

could start an online fundraising campaign to help speculators out now

campaign to help speculators out now

campaign to help speculators out now bringing transparency to motivations

bringing transparency to motivations

bringing transparency to motivations will reduce speculators opposition

will reduce speculators opposition

will reduce speculators opposition because nobody is going to openly

because nobody is going to openly

because nobody is going to openly declare themselves as wanting to profit

declare themselves as wanting to profit

declare themselves as wanting to profit from food prices the agency’s taking in

from food prices the agency’s taking in

from food prices the agency’s taking in the food crops would be free to sell

the food crops would be free to sell

the food crops would be free to sell them and utilize the funds or use the

them and utilize the funds or use the

them and utilize the funds or use the aid directly it might not match for

aid directly it might not match for

aid directly it might not match for example if the geography of supply and

example if the geography of supply and

example if the geography of supply and demand were in different places or if

demand were in different places or if

demand were in different places or if there was a requirement to access

there was a requirement to access

there was a requirement to access additional proteins

if the crop bill based biofuel industry

if the crop bill based biofuel industry didn’t exist for its greenhouse gas

didn’t exist for its greenhouse gas

didn’t exist for its greenhouse gas savings we would surely now create it

savings we would surely now create it

savings we would surely now create it for the safety net that it provides to

for the safety net that it provides to

for the safety net that it provides to global food supplies what now well the

global food supplies what now well the

global food supplies what now well the government structures that would be

government structures that would be

government structures that would be required are in place what’s needed is a

required are in place what’s needed is a

required are in place what’s needed is a will to act for two years I’ve been

will to act for two years I’ve been

will to act for two years I’ve been discussing this idea with biofuel

discussing this idea with biofuel

discussing this idea with biofuel producers and my goal today is to bring

producers and my goal today is to bring

producers and my goal today is to bring this initiative into the public domain

this initiative into the public domain

this initiative into the public domain and our hope and our aim is to develop a

and our hope and our aim is to develop a

and our hope and our aim is to develop a functioning system why olders still time

functioning system why olders still time

functioning system why olders still time let’s skip forward to a point in the

let’s skip forward to a point in the

let’s skip forward to a point in the future of add point a point where a

future of add point a point where a

future of add point a point where a combination of destructive climate

combination of destructive climate

combination of destructive climate events have all occurred at the same

events have all occurred at the same

events have all occurred at the same moment sadly it’s not so difficult to

moment sadly it’s not so difficult to

moment sadly it’s not so difficult to imagine suppose 200 million people have

imagine suppose 200 million people have

imagine suppose 200 million people have been displaced and in addition to the

been displaced and in addition to the

been displaced and in addition to the human cost the region’s affected are

human cost the region’s affected are

human cost the region’s affected are plunged into economic crisis let me give

plunged into economic crisis let me give

plunged into economic crisis let me give you two alternative scenarios first the

you two alternative scenarios first the

you two alternative scenarios first the status quo the UN puts out a call to

status quo the UN puts out a call to

status quo the UN puts out a call to raise 50 billion dollars in emergency

raise 50 billion dollars in emergency

raise 50 billion dollars in emergency aid but given the unprecedented nature

aid but given the unprecedented nature

aid but given the unprecedented nature of the crisis many donor countries are

of the crisis many donor countries are

of the crisis many donor countries are somewhat preoccupied with their domestic

somewhat preoccupied with their domestic

somewhat preoccupied with their domestic situations food prices rise double

situations food prices rise double

situations food prices rise double double again and the UN raises its call

double again and the UN raises its call

double again and the UN raises its call looking for a hundred billion dollars in

looking for a hundred billion dollars in

looking for a hundred billion dollars in aid what would happen next I hope we

aid what would happen next I hope we

aid what would happen next I hope we never find out

never find out

never find out alternatively the moment the same series

alternatively the moment the same series

alternatively the moment the same series of devastating climate events occurs the

of devastating climate events occurs the

of devastating climate events occurs the UN head of humanitarian aid invites a

UN head of humanitarian aid invites a

UN head of humanitarian aid invites a suspension of global biofuel markets

suspension of global biofuel markets

suspension of global biofuel markets across the world from the United States

across the world from the United States

across the world from the United States to Europe to South America to Indonesia

to Europe to South America to Indonesia

to Europe to South America to Indonesia to Japan by a few markets are suspended

to Japan by a few markets are suspended

to Japan by a few markets are suspended a total of 50 billion dollars worth of

a total of 50 billion dollars worth of

a total of 50 billion dollars worth of food crops are exchanged for virtual

food crops are exchanged for virtual

food crops are exchanged for virtual biofuel in the form of credits and the

biofuel in the form of credits and the

biofuel in the form of credits and the aid flows food prices don’t spike

aid flows food prices don’t spike

aid flows food prices don’t spike hoarding doesn’t take place

hoarding doesn’t take place

hoarding doesn’t take place the focus of attention is not on raising

the focus of attention is not on raising

the focus of attention is not on raising money but on dealing with the crisis

money but on dealing with the crisis

money but on dealing with the crisis thank you

thank you

thank you [Applause]