[Music] [Applause]
[Applause]
[Applause] [Music]
[Music]
[Music] Bell Gibson was a happy young Australian
Bell Gibson was a happy young Australian
Bell Gibson was a happy young Australian she lived in Perth and she loves
she lived in Perth and she loves
she lived in Perth and she loves skateboarding but in 2009 Beldon that
skateboarding but in 2009 Beldon that
skateboarding but in 2009 Beldon that she had brain cancer and four months to
she had brain cancer and four months to
she had brain cancer and four months to live
live
live two months of chemo and radiotherapy had
two months of chemo and radiotherapy had
two months of chemo and radiotherapy had no effect but Bell was determined she’d
no effect but Bell was determined she’d
no effect but Bell was determined she’d been a fighter her whole life from age
been a fighter her whole life from age
been a fighter her whole life from age six she had a cook for her brother who
six she had a cook for her brother who
six she had a cook for her brother who had autism and her mother had multiple
had autism and her mother had multiple
had autism and her mother had multiple sclerosis her father was out of the
sclerosis her father was out of the
sclerosis her father was out of the picture so Bell fought with exercise
picture so Bell fought with exercise
picture so Bell fought with exercise with meditation and by ditching meat for
with meditation and by ditching meat for
with meditation and by ditching meat for fruit and vegetables and she made a
fruit and vegetables and she made a
fruit and vegetables and she made a complete recovery Bell story went viral
complete recovery Bell story went viral
complete recovery Bell story went viral it was tweeted blogged about shared and
it was tweeted blogged about shared and
it was tweeted blogged about shared and reach millions of people it showed the
reach millions of people it showed the
reach millions of people it showed the benefits of shunning traditional
benefits of shunning traditional
benefits of shunning traditional medicine for diet and exercise in August
medicine for diet and exercise in August
medicine for diet and exercise in August 2013 Bell launched a healthy eating app
2013 Bell launched a healthy eating app
2013 Bell launched a healthy eating app the whole pantry downloaded two hundred
the whole pantry downloaded two hundred
the whole pantry downloaded two hundred thousand times in the first month but
thousand times in the first month but
thousand times in the first month but Bell’s story was a lie Bell never had
Bell’s story was a lie Bell never had
Bell’s story was a lie Bell never had cancer people shared a story without
cancer people shared a story without
cancer people shared a story without ever checking if it was true this is a
ever checking if it was true this is a
ever checking if it was true this is a classic example of confirmation bias we
classic example of confirmation bias we
classic example of confirmation bias we accept a story on critically if it
accept a story on critically if it
accept a story on critically if it confirms what we’d like to be true and
confirms what we’d like to be true and
confirms what we’d like to be true and we reject any story that contradicts it
we reject any story that contradicts it
we reject any story that contradicts it how often do we see this in the stories
how often do we see this in the stories
how often do we see this in the stories that we share and we ignore in politics
that we share and we ignore in politics
that we share and we ignore in politics in business and health advice the oxford
in business and health advice the oxford
in business and health advice the oxford dictionaries word of 2016 was post truth
dictionaries word of 2016 was post truth
dictionaries word of 2016 was post truth and the recognition that we now live in
and the recognition that we now live in
and the recognition that we now live in a post truth world has led to a much
a post truth world has led to a much
a post truth world has led to a much needed emphasis on checking the facts
needed emphasis on checking the facts
needed emphasis on checking the facts but the punchline of my talk is that
but the punchline of my talk is that
but the punchline of my talk is that just checking the facts is not enough
just checking the facts is not enough
just checking the facts is not enough even if Bell’s story were true it would
even if Bell’s story were true it would
even if Bell’s story were true it would be just as irrelevant why well let’s
be just as irrelevant why well let’s
be just as irrelevant why well let’s look at one of the most fundamental
look at one of the most fundamental
look at one of the most fundamental techniques in statistics
techniques in statistics
techniques in statistics it’s called Bayesian inference and the
it’s called Bayesian inference and the
it’s called Bayesian inference and the very simple version is this
very simple version is this
very simple version is this we care about does the data support the
we care about does the data support the
we care about does the data support the theory does the data increase our belief
theory does the data increase our belief
theory does the data increase our belief that the theory is true but instead we
that the theory is true but instead we
that the theory is true but instead we end up asking is the data consistent
end up asking is the data consistent
end up asking is the data consistent with the theory but being consistent
with the theory but being consistent
with the theory but being consistent with the theory does not mean that the
with the theory does not mean that the
with the theory does not mean that the data supports the theory why because of
data supports the theory why because of
data supports the theory why because of a crucial but forgotten third term the
a crucial but forgotten third term the
a crucial but forgotten third term the data could also be consistent with rival
data could also be consistent with rival
data could also be consistent with rival theories but due to confirmation bias we
theories but due to confirmation bias we
theories but due to confirmation bias we never consider the rival theories
never consider the rival theories
never consider the rival theories because we’re so protective of our own
because we’re so protective of our own
because we’re so protective of our own pet theory now let’s look at this
pet theory now let’s look at this
pet theory now let’s look at this football story well we care about does
football story well we care about does
football story well we care about does Bell story support the theory that dark
Bell story support the theory that dark
Bell story support the theory that dark you–is cancer but instead we end up
you–is cancer but instead we end up
you–is cancer but instead we end up asking is Bell story consistent with
asking is Bell story consistent with
asking is Bell story consistent with diet curing cancer and the answer is yes
diet curing cancer and the answer is yes
diet curing cancer and the answer is yes if diet did cure cancer we’d see stories
if diet did cure cancer we’d see stories
if diet did cure cancer we’d see stories like balance but even if diet did not
like balance but even if diet did not
like balance but even if diet did not cure cancer we’d still see stories like
cure cancer we’d still see stories like
cure cancer we’d still see stories like Bell’s a single story in which a patient
Bell’s a single story in which a patient
Bell’s a single story in which a patient apparently self cured just due to being
apparently self cured just due to being
apparently self cured just due to being misdiagnosed in the first place just
misdiagnosed in the first place just
misdiagnosed in the first place just like even if smoking was bad for your
like even if smoking was bad for your
like even if smoking was bad for your health
health
health you’d still see one smoker who lived
you’d still see one smoker who lived
you’d still see one smoker who lived into 100 just like even if education was
into 100 just like even if education was
into 100 just like even if education was good for your income you’d still see one
good for your income you’d still see one
good for your income you’d still see one multi-millionaire who didn’t go to
multi-millionaire who didn’t go to
multi-millionaire who didn’t go to university
so the biggest problem with Belle’s
so the biggest problem with Belle’s story is not that it was false it’s that
story is not that it was false it’s that
story is not that it was false it’s that it’s only one story there might be
it’s only one story there might be
it’s only one story there might be thousands of other stories where diet
thousands of other stories where diet
thousands of other stories where diet alone failed but we never hear about
alone failed but we never hear about
alone failed but we never hear about them we share the outlier cases because
them we share the outlier cases because
them we share the outlier cases because they are new and therefore they are news
they are new and therefore they are news
they are new and therefore they are news we never share the ordinary cases
we never share the ordinary cases
we never share the ordinary cases they’re too ordinary that they’re what
they’re too ordinary that they’re what
they’re too ordinary that they’re what normally happens and that’s the true 99%
normally happens and that’s the true 99%
normally happens and that’s the true 99% that we ignore just like in society you
that we ignore just like in society you
that we ignore just like in society you can’t just listen to the 1% the outliers
can’t just listen to the 1% the outliers
can’t just listen to the 1% the outliers and ignore the 99% the ordinary because
and ignore the 99% the ordinary because
and ignore the 99% the ordinary because that’s the second example of
that’s the second example of
that’s the second example of confirmation bias we accept a fact as
confirmation bias we accept a fact as
confirmation bias we accept a fact as data the biggest problem is not that we
data the biggest problem is not that we
data the biggest problem is not that we live in a post truth world it’s that we
live in a post truth world it’s that we
live in a post truth world it’s that we live in a post data world we prefer a
live in a post data world we prefer a
live in a post data world we prefer a single story to tons of data now stories
single story to tons of data now stories
single story to tons of data now stories are powerful their vivid they bring it
are powerful their vivid they bring it
are powerful their vivid they bring it to life they tell you to start every
to life they tell you to start every
to life they tell you to start every talk with the story I did but a single
talk with the story I did but a single
talk with the story I did but a single story is meaningless
story is meaningless
story is meaningless and misleading unless it’s backed up by
and misleading unless it’s backed up by
and misleading unless it’s backed up by large-scale data but even if we had
large-scale data but even if we had
large-scale data but even if we had large-scale data that might still not be
large-scale data that might still not be
large-scale data that might still not be enough because it could still be
enough because it could still be
enough because it could still be consistent with rival theories let me
consistent with rival theories let me
consistent with rival theories let me explain a classic study by psychologist
explain a classic study by psychologist
explain a classic study by psychologist Peter wastin gives you a set of three
Peter wastin gives you a set of three
Peter wastin gives you a set of three numbers and asked you to think of the
numbers and asked you to think of the
numbers and asked you to think of the rule that generated them so if you were
rule that generated them so if you were
rule that generated them so if you were given two four six what’s the rule well
given two four six what’s the rule well
given two four six what’s the rule well most people would think it’s successive
most people would think it’s successive
most people would think it’s successive even numbers how would you test it well
even numbers how would you test it well
even numbers how would you test it well you’d propose other sets of successive
you’d propose other sets of successive
you’d propose other sets of successive even numbers 4 6 8 or 12 14 16 and Peter
even numbers 4 6 8 or 12 14 16 and Peter
even numbers 4 6 8 or 12 14 16 and Peter would say these sets also work but
would say these sets also work but
would say these sets also work but knowing that these sets also work know
knowing that these sets also work know
knowing that these sets also work know that perhaps hundreds of sets of
that perhaps hundreds of sets of
that perhaps hundreds of sets of successive even numbers also work tells
successive even numbers also work tells
successive even numbers also work tells you nothing because this is still
you nothing because this is still
you nothing because this is still consistent with rival theories
consistent with rival theories
consistent with rival theories perhaps the rule is any three even
perhaps the rule is any three even
perhaps the rule is any three even numbers or any three increasing numbers
numbers or any three increasing numbers
numbers or any three increasing numbers and that’s the third example of
and that’s the third example of
and that’s the third example of confirmation bias accepting data as
confirmation bias accepting data as
confirmation bias accepting data as evidence even if it’s consistent with
evidence even if it’s consistent with
evidence even if it’s consistent with rival theories data is just a collection
rival theories data is just a collection
rival theories data is just a collection of facts evidence is data that supports
of facts evidence is data that supports
of facts evidence is data that supports one theory and rules out others so the
one theory and rules out others so the
one theory and rules out others so the best way to support your theory is
best way to support your theory is
best way to support your theory is actually to try to disprove it to play
actually to try to disprove it to play
actually to try to disprove it to play devil’s advocate so test something like
devil’s advocate so test something like
devil’s advocate so test something like four twelve twenty six well if you got a
four twelve twenty six well if you got a
four twelve twenty six well if you got a yes to that that would disprove your
yes to that that would disprove your
yes to that that would disprove your theory of successive even numbers yet
theory of successive even numbers yet
theory of successive even numbers yet this test is powerful because if you got
this test is powerful because if you got
this test is powerful because if you got a no it would rule out any three even
a no it would rule out any three even
a no it would rule out any three even numbers and any three increasing numbers
numbers and any three increasing numbers
numbers and any three increasing numbers it would rule out the rival theories but
it would rule out the rival theories but
it would rule out the rival theories but not rule out yours but most people are
not rule out yours but most people are
not rule out yours but most people are too afraid of testing the four twelve
too afraid of testing the four twelve
too afraid of testing the four twelve twenty six because they don’t want to
twenty six because they don’t want to
twenty six because they don’t want to get a yes and prove their pet theory to
get a yes and prove their pet theory to
get a yes and prove their pet theory to be wrong
be wrong
be wrong like confirmation bias is not only about
like confirmation bias is not only about
like confirmation bias is not only about failing to search for a new data but
failing to search for a new data but
failing to search for a new data but it’s also about misinterpreting data
it’s also about misinterpreting data
it’s also about misinterpreting data once you receive this and this applies
once you receive this and this applies
once you receive this and this applies outside the lab to important real world
outside the lab to important real world
outside the lab to important real world problems
problems
problems indeed Thomas Edison famously said I
indeed Thomas Edison famously said I
indeed Thomas Edison famously said I have not failed I have found 10,000 ways
have not failed I have found 10,000 ways
have not failed I have found 10,000 ways that won’t work finding out the out that
that won’t work finding out the out that
that won’t work finding out the out that you’re gone is the only way to find out
you’re gone is the only way to find out
you’re gone is the only way to find out what’s right say your University
what’s right say your University
what’s right say your University Admissions Director and your theories
Admissions Director and your theories
Admissions Director and your theories the only students with good grades from
the only students with good grades from
the only students with good grades from rich families do well so you only let in
rich families do well so you only let in
rich families do well so you only let in such students and they do well but
such students and they do well but
such students and they do well but that’s also consistent with a rival
that’s also consistent with a rival
that’s also consistent with a rival Theory perhaps all students with good
Theory perhaps all students with good
Theory perhaps all students with good grades do well rich or poor but you
grades do well rich or poor but you
grades do well rich or poor but you never test that theory because you never
never test that theory because you never
never test that theory because you never let in poor students because you don’t
let in poor students because you don’t
let in poor students because you don’t want to be proven wrong
want to be proven wrong
want to be proven wrong so what have we learned a story is not
so what have we learned a story is not
so what have we learned a story is not fact
fact
fact because it may not be true a fact is not
because it may not be true a fact is not
because it may not be true a fact is not data it may not be representative if
data it may not be representative if
data it may not be representative if it’s only one data point and data is not
it’s only one data point and data is not
it’s only one data point and data is not evidence it may not be supportive if
evidence it may not be supportive if
evidence it may not be supportive if it’s consistent with rival theories so
it’s consistent with rival theories so
it’s consistent with rival theories so what do you do when you’re at the
what do you do when you’re at the
what do you do when you’re at the inflection points of life deciding on a
inflection points of life deciding on a
inflection points of life deciding on a strategy for your business a parenting
strategy for your business a parenting
strategy for your business a parenting technique for your child or a regimen
technique for your child or a regimen
technique for your child or a regimen for your health how do you ensure that
for your health how do you ensure that
for your health how do you ensure that you don’t have a story but you have
you don’t have a story but you have
you don’t have a story but you have evidence let me give you three tips the
evidence let me give you three tips the
evidence let me give you three tips the first is to actively seek other
first is to actively seek other
first is to actively seek other viewpoints read and listen to people you
viewpoints read and listen to people you
viewpoints read and listen to people you flagrantly disagree with 90% of what
flagrantly disagree with 90% of what
flagrantly disagree with 90% of what they say may be wrong in your view but
they say may be wrong in your view but
they say may be wrong in your view but what if 10% is right as our Stovall said
what if 10% is right as our Stovall said
what if 10% is right as our Stovall said the mark of an educated man is the
the mark of an educated man is the
the mark of an educated man is the ability to entertain a thought without
ability to entertain a thought without
ability to entertain a thought without necessarily accepting it surround
necessarily accepting it surround
necessarily accepting it surround yourself with people who challenge you
yourself with people who challenge you
yourself with people who challenge you and create a culture that actively
and create a culture that actively
and create a culture that actively encourages dissent some banks suffered
encourages dissent some banks suffered
encourages dissent some banks suffered from groupthink where staff were too
from groupthink where staff were too
from groupthink where staff were too afraid to challenge management’s lending
afraid to challenge management’s lending
afraid to challenge management’s lending decisions contributing to the financial
decisions contributing to the financial
decisions contributing to the financial crisis in a meeting appoint someone to
crisis in a meeting appoint someone to
crisis in a meeting appoint someone to be devil’s advocate against your pet
be devil’s advocate against your pet
be devil’s advocate against your pet idea and don’t just hear another
idea and don’t just hear another
idea and don’t just hear another viewpoint listen to it as well as
viewpoint listen to it as well as
viewpoint listen to it as well as psychologist Stephen Covey said listen
psychologist Stephen Covey said listen
psychologist Stephen Covey said listen with the intent to understand not the
with the intent to understand not the
with the intent to understand not the intent to reply a dissenting viewpoint
intent to reply a dissenting viewpoint
intent to reply a dissenting viewpoint is something to learn from not to argue
is something to learn from not to argue
is something to learn from not to argue against which takes us to the other
against which takes us to the other
against which takes us to the other forgotten terms in Bayesian influence
forgotten terms in Bayesian influence
forgotten terms in Bayesian influence because data allows you to learn but
because data allows you to learn but
because data allows you to learn but learning is only relative to a starting
learning is only relative to a starting
learning is only relative to a starting point if you started with complete
point if you started with complete
point if you started with complete certainty that your pet theory must be
certainty that your pet theory must be
certainty that your pet theory must be true then your view won’t change
true then your view won’t change
true then your view won’t change regardless of what data that you see
regardless of what data that you see
regardless of what data that you see only if you are truly open to the
only if you are truly open to the
only if you are truly open to the possibility of being wrong
possibility of being wrong
possibility of being wrong can you ever learn as Leo Tolstoy wrote
can you ever learn as Leo Tolstoy wrote
can you ever learn as Leo Tolstoy wrote the most difficult subjects can be
the most difficult subjects can be
the most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if
explained to the most slow-witted man if
explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them
he has not formed any idea of them
he has not formed any idea of them already but the simplest thing cannot be
already but the simplest thing cannot be
already but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man
made clear to the most intelligent man
made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows
if he is firmly persuaded that he knows
if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already tip number two is listen to
already tip number two is listen to
already tip number two is listen to experts now that has the most unpopular
experts now that has the most unpopular
experts now that has the most unpopular advice that I could give you British
advice that I could give you British
advice that I could give you British politician Michael Gove famously said
politician Michael Gove famously said
politician Michael Gove famously said that people in this country have had
that people in this country have had
that people in this country have had enough of experts a recent poll showed
enough of experts a recent poll showed
enough of experts a recent poll showed that more people would trust their
that more people would trust their
that more people would trust their hairdresser or the man on the street
hairdresser or the man on the street
hairdresser or the man on the street then they would leaders of businesses
then they would leaders of businesses
then they would leaders of businesses the health service and even charities so
the health service and even charities so
the health service and even charities so we respect a teeth whitening formula
we respect a teeth whitening formula
we respect a teeth whitening formula discovered by a mum or we listen to an
discovered by a mum or we listen to an
discovered by a mum or we listen to an actresses view on vaccinations we like
actresses view on vaccinations we like
actresses view on vaccinations we like people who tell it like it is you go
people who tell it like it is you go
people who tell it like it is you go where they got and we call them
where they got and we call them
where they got and we call them authentic but God feel can only get you
authentic but God feel can only get you
authentic but God feel can only get you so far God feel would tell you never to
so far God feel would tell you never to
so far God feel would tell you never to give water to a baby with diarrhea
give water to a baby with diarrhea
give water to a baby with diarrhea because it would just flow out the other
because it would just flow out the other
because it would just flow out the other end
end
end expertise tells you otherwise you’d
expertise tells you otherwise you’d
expertise tells you otherwise you’d never trust your surgery to the man on
never trust your surgery to the man on
never trust your surgery to the man on the street you’d want an expert who
the street you’d want an expert who
the street you’d want an expert who spent years doing surgery and knows the
spent years doing surgery and knows the
spent years doing surgery and knows the best techniques but that should apply to
best techniques but that should apply to
best techniques but that should apply to every major decision politics business
every major decision politics business
every major decision politics business health advice require expertise just
health advice require expertise just
health advice require expertise just like surgery so then why are experts so
like surgery so then why are experts so
like surgery so then why are experts so mistrusted well one reason is they’re
mistrusted well one reason is they’re
mistrusted well one reason is they’re seen as out of touch a Millionaire CEO
seen as out of touch a Millionaire CEO
seen as out of touch a Millionaire CEO couldn’t possibly speak for the man on
couldn’t possibly speak for the man on
couldn’t possibly speak for the man on the street but true expertise is found
the street but true expertise is found
the street but true expertise is found on evidence and evidence stands up for
on evidence and evidence stands up for
on evidence and evidence stands up for the man on the street and against the
the man on the street and against the
the man on the street and against the elites because evidence forces you to
elites because evidence forces you to
elites because evidence forces you to prove it evidence prevents the elites
prove it evidence prevents the elites
prove it evidence prevents the elites from imposing their own view with
from imposing their own view with
from imposing their own view with out proof a second reason why experts
out proof a second reason why experts
out proof a second reason why experts are not trusted is that different
are not trusted is that different
are not trusted is that different experts say different things for every
experts say different things for every
experts say different things for every expert who claimed that leaving the EU
expert who claimed that leaving the EU
expert who claimed that leaving the EU would be bad for Britain
would be bad for Britain
would be bad for Britain another expert claimed it would be good
another expert claimed it would be good
another expert claimed it would be good right half of these so-called experts
right half of these so-called experts
right half of these so-called experts will be wrong and I have to admit that
will be wrong and I have to admit that
will be wrong and I have to admit that most papers written by experts are wrong
most papers written by experts are wrong
most papers written by experts are wrong or at best make claims that the evidence
or at best make claims that the evidence
or at best make claims that the evidence doesn’t actually support so we can’t
doesn’t actually support so we can’t
doesn’t actually support so we can’t just take an experts word for it in
just take an experts word for it in
just take an experts word for it in November 2016 a study on executive pay
November 2016 a study on executive pay
November 2016 a study on executive pay hit national headlines even though none
hit national headlines even though none
hit national headlines even though none of the newspapers who covered the study
of the newspapers who covered the study
of the newspapers who covered the study had even seen the study it wasn’t even
had even seen the study it wasn’t even
had even seen the study it wasn’t even out yet they just took the author’s word
out yet they just took the author’s word
out yet they just took the author’s word for it
for it
for it just like with bail nor does it mean
just like with bail nor does it mean
just like with bail nor does it mean that we can just handpick any study that
that we can just handpick any study that
that we can just handpick any study that happens to support our viewpoint that
happens to support our viewpoint that
happens to support our viewpoint that would again be confirmation by us nor
would again be confirmation by us nor
would again be confirmation by us nor does it mean that if seven studies show
does it mean that if seven studies show
does it mean that if seven studies show a and three show B that a must be true
a and three show B that a must be true
a and three show B that a must be true what matters is the quality and not the
what matters is the quality and not the
what matters is the quality and not the quantity of expertise so we should do
quantity of expertise so we should do
quantity of expertise so we should do two things first we should critically
two things first we should critically
two things first we should critically examine for credentials of the authors
examine for credentials of the authors
examine for credentials of the authors just like you’ve critically examined the
just like you’ve critically examined the
just like you’ve critically examined the credentials of a potential surgeon are
credentials of a potential surgeon are
credentials of a potential surgeon are they truly experts in the matter or do
they truly experts in the matter or do
they truly experts in the matter or do they have a vested interest second we
they have a vested interest second we
they have a vested interest second we should pay particular attention to
should pay particular attention to
should pay particular attention to papers published in the top academic
papers published in the top academic
papers published in the top academic journals now academics are often accused
journals now academics are often accused
journals now academics are often accused of being detached from the real world
of being detached from the real world
of being detached from the real world but this detachment gives you years to
but this detachment gives you years to
but this detachment gives you years to spend on a study to really nail down a
spend on a study to really nail down a
spend on a study to really nail down a result to rule out those rival theories
result to rule out those rival theories
result to rule out those rival theories and a distinguished correlation from
and a distinguished correlation from
and a distinguished correlation from causation and academic journals involve
causation and academic journals involve
causation and academic journals involve peer review where a paper is rigorously
peer review where a paper is rigorously
peer review where a paper is rigorously scrutinized by the world’s leading minds
scrutinized by the world’s leading minds
scrutinized by the world’s leading minds the better the journal the higher the
the better the journal the higher the
the better the journal the higher the standard the most elite journals reject
standard the most elite journals reject
standard the most elite journals reject 95% of papers now academic evidence
95% of papers now academic evidence
95% of papers now academic evidence is not everything real-world experience
is not everything real-world experience
is not everything real-world experience is critical also and and peer review is
is critical also and and peer review is
is critical also and and peer review is not perfect mistakes are made but it’s
not perfect mistakes are made but it’s
not perfect mistakes are made but it’s better to go with something checked than
better to go with something checked than
better to go with something checked than something unchecked if we latch on to a
something unchecked if we latch on to a
something unchecked if we latch on to a study because we like the findings
study because we like the findings
study because we like the findings without considering who it’s by or
without considering who it’s by or
without considering who it’s by or whether it’s even been vetted there is a
whether it’s even been vetted there is a
whether it’s even been vetted there is a massive chance that that study is
massive chance that that study is
massive chance that that study is misleading and those of us who claim to
misleading and those of us who claim to
misleading and those of us who claim to be experts should recognize the
be experts should recognize the
be experts should recognize the limitations of our analysis very rarely
limitations of our analysis very rarely
limitations of our analysis very rarely is it possible to prove or predict
is it possible to prove or predict
is it possible to prove or predict something with certainty yet it’s so
something with certainty yet it’s so
something with certainty yet it’s so tempting to make a sweeping unqualified
tempting to make a sweeping unqualified
tempting to make a sweeping unqualified statement
statement
statement it’s easier to turn into a headline or
it’s easier to turn into a headline or
it’s easier to turn into a headline or to be tweeted in 140 characters but even
to be tweeted in 140 characters but even
to be tweeted in 140 characters but even evidence may not be proof it may not be
evidence may not be proof it may not be
evidence may not be proof it may not be Universal it may not apply in every
Universal it may not apply in every
Universal it may not apply in every setting so don’t say Redwine causes
setting so don’t say Redwine causes
setting so don’t say Redwine causes longer life when the evidence is only
longer life when the evidence is only
longer life when the evidence is only that red wine is correlated with longer
that red wine is correlated with longer
that red wine is correlated with longer life and only then in people who
life and only then in people who
life and only then in people who exercise as well tip number three is
exercise as well tip number three is
exercise as well tip number three is pause before sharing anything the
pause before sharing anything the
pause before sharing anything the Hippocratic oath says first do no harm
Hippocratic oath says first do no harm
Hippocratic oath says first do no harm what we share is potentially contagious
what we share is potentially contagious
what we share is potentially contagious so be very careful about what we spread
so be very careful about what we spread
so be very careful about what we spread our goal should not be to get likes or
our goal should not be to get likes or
our goal should not be to get likes or retweets otherwise we only share the
retweets otherwise we only share the
retweets otherwise we only share the consensus we don’t challenge anyone’s
consensus we don’t challenge anyone’s
consensus we don’t challenge anyone’s thinking otherwise we only share what
thinking otherwise we only share what
thinking otherwise we only share what sounds good
sounds good
sounds good regardless of whether it’s evidence
regardless of whether it’s evidence
regardless of whether it’s evidence instead we should ask the following if
instead we should ask the following if
instead we should ask the following if it’s a story is it true if it’s true is
it’s a story is it true if it’s true is
it’s a story is it true if it’s true is it backed up by large-scale evidence if
it backed up by large-scale evidence if
it backed up by large-scale evidence if it is who’s that by what are their
it is who’s that by what are their
it is who’s that by what are their credentials is it published how rigorous
credentials is it published how rigorous
credentials is it published how rigorous is the journal and ask yourself the
is the journal and ask yourself the
is the journal and ask yourself the million-dollar question if the same
million-dollar question if the same
million-dollar question if the same study was written by the same authors
study was written by the same authors
study was written by the same authors with the same credentials but found the
with the same credentials but found the
with the same credentials but found the opposite result would you still be
opposite result would you still be
opposite result would you still be willing to believe it and to share it
treating any problem a nation’s economic
treating any problem a nation’s economic problem or an individual’s health
problem or an individual’s health
problem or an individual’s health problem is difficult so you must ensure
problem is difficult so you must ensure
problem is difficult so you must ensure that we have the very best evidence to
that we have the very best evidence to
that we have the very best evidence to guide us only if it’s true can it be
guide us only if it’s true can it be
guide us only if it’s true can it be fact only of its representative can it
fact only of its representative can it
fact only of its representative can it be data only if it’s supportive can it
be data only if it’s supportive can it
be data only if it’s supportive can it be evidence and only with evidence
be evidence and only with evidence
be evidence and only with evidence can we move from a post truth world to a
can we move from a post truth world to a
can we move from a post truth world to a pro truth world thank you very much
pro truth world thank you very much
pro truth world thank you very much [Applause]
”
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