[Music] [Applause]
[Applause]
[Applause] what’s the fundamental rule of real
what’s the fundamental rule of real
what’s the fundamental rule of real estate even if you don’t know the first
estate even if you don’t know the first
estate even if you don’t know the first thing about it you’ve probably heard the
thing about it you’ve probably heard the
thing about it you’ve probably heard the answer location location location well
answer location location location well
answer location location location well I’m here to tell you tonight that that
I’m here to tell you tonight that that
I’m here to tell you tonight that that rule is broken it has been for some time
rule is broken it has been for some time
rule is broken it has been for some time how do I know because we’re designing
how do I know because we’re designing
how do I know because we’re designing something called driverless cars and in
something called driverless cars and in
something called driverless cars and in much the same way the automobile shaped
much the same way the automobile shaped
much the same way the automobile shaped cities of the 20th century it’s going to
cities of the 20th century it’s going to
cities of the 20th century it’s going to change our cities again and it’s going
change our cities again and it’s going
change our cities again and it’s going to change everything that we thought we
to change everything that we thought we
to change everything that we thought we knew about real estate it’s no news that
knew about real estate it’s no news that
knew about real estate it’s no news that we’re in an era of disruption the
we’re in an era of disruption the
we’re in an era of disruption the world’s second largest hotel chain
world’s second largest hotel chain
world’s second largest hotel chain Airbnb doesn’t own any beds doesn’t own
Airbnb doesn’t own any beds doesn’t own
Airbnb doesn’t own any beds doesn’t own any property the world’s art this taxi
any property the world’s art this taxi
any property the world’s art this taxi company uber doesn’t own in their cars
company uber doesn’t own in their cars
company uber doesn’t own in their cars so we’re changing what it means to
so we’re changing what it means to
so we’re changing what it means to travel we’re changing what it means to
travel we’re changing what it means to
travel we’re changing what it means to own something and we’re changing what it
own something and we’re changing what it
own something and we’re changing what it means to commute these shifts are going
means to commute these shifts are going
means to commute these shifts are going to be accelerated by the driver of this
to be accelerated by the driver of this
to be accelerated by the driver of this car because if we’re building cars that
car because if we’re building cars that
car because if we’re building cars that don’t have drivers we can design
don’t have drivers we can design
don’t have drivers we can design buildings with no parking and if we can
buildings with no parking and if we can
buildings with no parking and if we can design buildings that don’t need parking
design buildings that don’t need parking
design buildings that don’t need parking we’re going to design cities that look
we’re going to design cities that look
we’re going to design cities that look unlike anything we’ve seen for the last
unlike anything we’ve seen for the last
unlike anything we’ve seen for the last 100 years in a way this is the story of
100 years in a way this is the story of
100 years in a way this is the story of how cars have changed cities twice over
how cars have changed cities twice over
how cars have changed cities twice over to understand how we’re going to look at
to understand how we’re going to look at
to understand how we’re going to look at how they did it the first time to
how they did it the first time to
how they did it the first time to understand when driverless cars will
understand when driverless cars will
understand when driverless cars will change cities we’re gonna look at
change cities we’re gonna look at
change cities we’re gonna look at autonomous tech and maybe we’ll take a
autonomous tech and maybe we’ll take a
autonomous tech and maybe we’ll take a look at just how our lives will change
look at just how our lives will change
look at just how our lives will change and every building in it in the coming
and every building in it in the coming
and every building in it in the coming real estate revolution so let’s take a
real estate revolution so let’s take a
real estate revolution so let’s take a trip back it’s 1900 the Model T hasn’t
trip back it’s 1900 the Model T hasn’t
trip back it’s 1900 the Model T hasn’t even been invented yet there are less
even been invented yet there are less
even been invented yet there are less than eight thousand cars in the US just
than eight thousand cars in the US just
than eight thousand cars in the US just a decade later there are nearly half a
a decade later there are nearly half a
a decade later there are nearly half a million how does that happen
million how does that happen
million how does that happen Wow people could go further fast
Wow people could go further fast
Wow people could go further fast for less money the economy was booming
for less money the economy was booming
for less money the economy was booming but it brought some bad things to
but it brought some bad things to
but it brought some bad things to congestion traffic fatality energy
congestion traffic fatality energy
congestion traffic fatality energy dependency and everybody’s favorite
dependency and everybody’s favorite
dependency and everybody’s favorite parking by 1926 downtown merchants had
parking by 1926 downtown merchants had
parking by 1926 downtown merchants had listed traffic congestion as their main
listed traffic congestion as their main
listed traffic congestion as their main business concern people hated parking
business concern people hated parking
business concern people hated parking even back in 1926 so cities came in they
even back in 1926 so cities came in they
even back in 1926 so cities came in they said okay we’re gonna pull out parking
said okay we’re gonna pull out parking
said okay we’re gonna pull out parking meters on the street and we’re going to
meters on the street and we’re going to
meters on the street and we’re going to move cars off the road and we’re gonna
move cars off the road and we’re gonna
move cars off the road and we’re gonna put them in garages we’re gonna help
put them in garages we’re gonna help
put them in garages we’re gonna help ease the traffic and increase Road
ease the traffic and increase Road
ease the traffic and increase Road capacity sounds great
capacity sounds great
capacity sounds great second wave of automobile innovation hit
second wave of automobile innovation hit
second wave of automobile innovation hit the United States after World War two we
the United States after World War two we
the United States after World War two we built something called the interstate
built something called the interstate
built something called the interstate highway system we connected every major
highway system we connected every major
highway system we connected every major city in the US and we made there and
city in the US and we made there and
city in the US and we made there and here simultaneously closer together and
here simultaneously closer together and
here simultaneously closer together and much further apart our city planning
much further apart our city planning
much further apart our city planning approach during this period of time is
approach during this period of time is
approach during this period of time is basically separate all the buildings and
basically separate all the buildings and
basically separate all the buildings and all the uses build giant roads to get
all the uses build giant roads to get
all the uses build giant roads to get there and give everybody a parking space
there and give everybody a parking space
there and give everybody a parking space when they arrive no problem it’s called
when they arrive no problem it’s called
when they arrive no problem it’s called sprawl and we can see it from space this
sprawl and we can see it from space this
sprawl and we can see it from space this is aerial imagery of Las Vegas you can
is aerial imagery of Las Vegas you can
is aerial imagery of Las Vegas you can see just how quickly we consume the
see just how quickly we consume the
see just how quickly we consume the landscape we consume land faster than
landscape we consume land faster than
landscape we consume land faster than the population grows 40% faster this
the population grows 40% faster this
the population grows 40% faster this massive use of space is driven by our
massive use of space is driven by our
massive use of space is driven by our appetite for automobiles because they
appetite for automobiles because they
appetite for automobiles because they take a lot of room not only on the roads
take a lot of room not only on the roads
take a lot of room not only on the roads but in our buildings in our garages and
but in our buildings in our garages and
but in our buildings in our garages and our houses and our businesses now it’s
our houses and our businesses now it’s
our houses and our businesses now it’s not uncommon in any city in America for
not uncommon in any city in America for
not uncommon in any city in America for parking to be bigger than the size of
parking to be bigger than the size of
parking to be bigger than the size of the building itself this is where
the building itself this is where
the building itself this is where parking begins to dominate real estate
parking begins to dominate real estate
parking begins to dominate real estate we have four parking spaces for every
we have four parking spaces for every
we have four parking spaces for every car in the u.s. imagine if every family
car in the u.s. imagine if every family
car in the u.s. imagine if every family had four houses now granted parking
had four houses now granted parking
had four houses now granted parking stalls are not as expensive as houses
stalls are not as expensive as houses
stalls are not as expensive as houses but even at a modest cost its trillions
but even at a modest cost its trillions
but even at a modest cost its trillions of dollars that are locked up as empty
of dollars that are locked up as empty
of dollars that are locked up as empty storage that’s the size of Maine two
storage that’s the size of Maine two
storage that’s the size of Maine two billion parking stalls so a century
billion parking stalls so a century
billion parking stalls so a century after the release of the Model T we have
after the release of the Model T we have
after the release of the Model T we have more than one car for every driver in
more than one car for every driver in
more than one car for every driver in the u.s. it’s a huge part of our lives
the u.s. it’s a huge part of our lives
the u.s. it’s a huge part of our lives but it’s a small part of our economy
but it’s a small part of our economy
but it’s a small part of our economy it’s only 3% so how is it that something
it’s only 3% so how is it that something
it’s only 3% so how is it that something so small has been able to drive
so small has been able to drive
so small has been able to drive development decisions for the last
development decisions for the last
development decisions for the last century it’s because that rule is flawed
century it’s because that rule is flawed
century it’s because that rule is flawed Real Estate’s not about location
Real Estate’s not about location
Real Estate’s not about location it’s about transportation it’s about how
it’s about transportation it’s about how
it’s about transportation it’s about how you get there and that’s how small
you get there and that’s how small
you get there and that’s how small changes in the automobile industry can
changes in the automobile industry can
changes in the automobile industry can mean huge things for real estate and let
mean huge things for real estate and let
mean huge things for real estate and let me be clear the autonomous car it’s no
me be clear the autonomous car it’s no
me be clear the autonomous car it’s no small change the pace of technology
small change the pace of technology
small change the pace of technology investment this sector has been a
investment this sector has been a
investment this sector has been a rapidly in the past few years this is a
rapidly in the past few years this is a
rapidly in the past few years this is a picture of lidar this is a laser
picture of lidar this is a laser
picture of lidar this is a laser scanning image that kind of allows a car
scanning image that kind of allows a car
scanning image that kind of allows a car to see if you will this technology has
to see if you will this technology has
to see if you will this technology has been reduced by 90% just in the last
been reduced by 90% just in the last
been reduced by 90% just in the last three years combined this really cool
three years combined this really cool
three years combined this really cool advanced imagery with deep learning
advanced imagery with deep learning
advanced imagery with deep learning algorithms and we can both teach a car
algorithms and we can both teach a car
algorithms and we can both teach a car to see and teach it how to drive
to see and teach it how to drive
to see and teach it how to drive autonomous vehicles not just possible
autonomous vehicles not just possible
autonomous vehicles not just possible their imminent without changing a single
their imminent without changing a single
their imminent without changing a single federal law in the u.s. autonomous cars
federal law in the u.s. autonomous cars
federal law in the u.s. autonomous cars have driven three million miles now
have driven three million miles now
have driven three million miles now that’s just in testing mode but there
that’s just in testing mode but there
that’s just in testing mode but there are other modes already on the consumer
are other modes already on the consumer
are other modes already on the consumer market that do some pretty incredible
market that do some pretty incredible
market that do some pretty incredible stuff Tesla’s autopilot mode can take
stuff Tesla’s autopilot mode can take
stuff Tesla’s autopilot mode can take you on the freeway on-ramp change lanes
you on the freeway on-ramp change lanes
you on the freeway on-ramp change lanes and even take you home and park in your
and even take you home and park in your
and even take you home and park in your garage for you but there are 40 of
garage for you but there are 40 of
garage for you but there are 40 of different makes and models of cars out
different makes and models of cars out
different makes and models of cars out there that can parallel park themselves
there that can parallel park themselves
there that can parallel park themselves but what if they could do more imagine
but what if they could do more imagine
but what if they could do more imagine you’re on your way to work you’re
you’re on your way to work you’re
you’re on your way to work you’re already running a little late it’s
already running a little late it’s
already running a little late it’s raining you hop out of the car in a
raining you hop out of the car in a
raining you hop out of the car in a hurry and your car has dropped you off
hurry and your car has dropped you off
hurry and your car has dropped you off at the newly designed covered drop-off
at the newly designed covered drop-off
at the newly designed covered drop-off spot for your building that’s where the
spot for your building that’s where the
spot for your building that’s where the parking meters used to be you get out
parking meters used to be you get out
parking meters used to be you get out you send your car away it scurries off
you send your car away it scurries off
you send your car away it scurries off to go find a parking space and you type
to go find a parking space and you type
to go find a parking space and you type in the amount that you want to pay for
in the amount that you want to pay for
in the amount that you want to pay for that parking on your phone you’re
that parking on your phone you’re
that parking on your phone you’re already in the elevator in your car
already in the elevator in your car
already in the elevator in your car tells you found a spot for you bucks all
tells you found a spot for you bucks all
tells you found a spot for you bucks all right sure your car scurries way finds
right sure your car scurries way finds
right sure your car scurries way finds that parking space and slips into it
that parking space and slips into it
that parking space and slips into it with just inches to spare on either side
with just inches to spare on either side
with just inches to spare on either side doesn’t need space for the doors to open
doesn’t need space for the doors to open
doesn’t need space for the doors to open or anyone to get out you continue
or anyone to get out you continue
or anyone to get out you continue working your car waits for you to summon
working your car waits for you to summon
working your car waits for you to summon at the end of the day or maybe you send
at the end of the day or maybe you send
at the end of the day or maybe you send your car to work
your car to work
your car to work maybe you hop on a different app on your
maybe you hop on a different app on your
maybe you hop on a different app on your phone and you send your car to go out
phone and you send your car to go out
phone and you send your car to go out there in the city and help other people
there in the city and help other people
there in the city and help other people who don’t own cars get around this
who don’t own cars get around this
who don’t own cars get around this virtual valet system seems pretty
virtual valet system seems pretty
virtual valet system seems pretty futuristic but we already have the
futuristic but we already have the
futuristic but we already have the technology it’s here in your pockets and
technology it’s here in your pockets and
technology it’s here in your pockets and these 44 corporations have invested
these 44 corporations have invested
these 44 corporations have invested billions of dollars in autonomous tech
billions of dollars in autonomous tech
billions of dollars in autonomous tech and it’s coming quickly 11 major auto
and it’s coming quickly 11 major auto
and it’s coming quickly 11 major auto manufacturers have promised fully
manufacturers have promised fully
manufacturers have promised fully autonomous vehicles by 2020 that’s in
autonomous vehicles by 2020 that’s in
autonomous vehicles by 2020 that’s in three years our cities are ready for a
three years our cities are ready for a
three years our cities are ready for a revolution the cities of the last
revolution the cities of the last
revolution the cities of the last century were designed around cars so it
century were designed around cars so it
century were designed around cars so it makes sense that if the cars changed
makes sense that if the cars changed
makes sense that if the cars changed dramatically so do our places and
dramatically so do our places and
dramatically so do our places and because the real estate industry is so
because the real estate industry is so
because the real estate industry is so much bigger than the automobile industry
much bigger than the automobile industry
much bigger than the automobile industry we’re gonna see massive changes and I
we’re gonna see massive changes and I
we’re gonna see massive changes and I would say that these are going to be
would say that these are going to be
would say that these are going to be categorized in roughly three different
categorized in roughly three different
categorized in roughly three different ways the first is that the average
ways the first is that the average
ways the first is that the average American household spends nine thousand
American household spends nine thousand
American household spends nine thousand dollars a year on automobiles driverless
dollars a year on automobiles driverless
dollars a year on automobiles driverless cars can reduce that by fifty six
cars can reduce that by fifty six
cars can reduce that by fifty six hundred dollars that’s the equivalent of
hundred dollars that’s the equivalent of
hundred dollars that’s the equivalent of a 10% raise and who doesn’t want that
a 10% raise and who doesn’t want that
a 10% raise and who doesn’t want that just kidding put in your hands and so if
just kidding put in your hands and so if
just kidding put in your hands and so if we use those savings what else could we
we use those savings what else could we
we use those savings what else could we do with it
do with it
do with it could we finally own that home could we
could we finally own that home could we
could we finally own that home could we do away with maybe garages could we move
do away with maybe garages could we move
do away with maybe garages could we move our homes a little bit closer to the
our homes a little bit closer to the
our homes a little bit closer to the street because we don’t need garages or
street because we don’t need garages or
street because we don’t need garages or a driveways if you do have a home with
a driveways if you do have a home with
a driveways if you do have a home with the garage we can use that extra 500
the garage we can use that extra 500
the garage we can use that extra 500 square feet of space for something
square feet of space for something
square feet of space for something different we can use that room and we
different we can use that room and we
different we can use that room and we can design a prefabricated housing
can design a prefabricated housing
can design a prefabricated housing container that slides into the space
container that slides into the space
container that slides into the space where your cars used to be and clicks
where your cars used to be and clicks
where your cars used to be and clicks into the existing grid you have housing
into the existing grid you have housing
into the existing grid you have housing for Grandma or grad student you have a
for Grandma or grad student you have a
for Grandma or grad student you have a space to open that home business that
space to open that home business that
space to open that home business that you’ve always been wanting you have room
you’ve always been wanting you have room
you’ve always been wanting you have room for your family to grow we can help
for your family to grow we can help
for your family to grow we can help solve the housing crisis in areas like
solve the housing crisis in areas like
solve the housing crisis in areas like San Francisco with a system like this
San Francisco with a system like this
San Francisco with a system like this the average income can only buy you
the average income can only buy you
the average income can only buy you about 135 square feet in San Francisco
about 135 square feet in San Francisco
about 135 square feet in San Francisco that’s the size of a parking stall so we
that’s the size of a parking stall so we
that’s the size of a parking stall so we can finally afford the home of our
can finally afford the home of our
can finally afford the home of our dreams and maybe that’s a little bit
dreams and maybe that’s a little bit
dreams and maybe that’s a little bit further from work but that’s okay
further from work but that’s okay
further from work but that’s okay because we’re productive on the way
because we’re productive on the way
because we’re productive on the way there maybe we can sleep on our way to
there maybe we can sleep on our way to
there maybe we can sleep on our way to work not at work
work not at work
work not at work maybe we can work on the way home it’s
maybe we can work on the way home it’s
maybe we can work on the way home it’s no longer leave the office stop working
no longer leave the office stop working
no longer leave the office stop working and go home you work as you go home and
and go home you work as you go home and
and go home you work as you go home and maybe the windows or screens and the
maybe the windows or screens and the
maybe the windows or screens and the wheel is a desk this is pretty
wheel is a desk this is pretty
wheel is a desk this is pretty productive time total miles driven might
productive time total miles driven might
productive time total miles driven might actually increase if people can afford
actually increase if people can afford
actually increase if people can afford and maybe even enjoy their commute we
and maybe even enjoy their commute we
and maybe even enjoy their commute we can reduce the cost to commute by 70%
can reduce the cost to commute by 70%
can reduce the cost to commute by 70% making maybe a 200 mile long travel time
making maybe a 200 mile long travel time
making maybe a 200 mile long travel time to work possible companies can then tap
to work possible companies can then tap
to work possible companies can then tap into large labor markets and they can
into large labor markets and they can
into large labor markets and they can open a new business location anywhere
open a new business location anywhere
open a new business location anywhere now the third paradox of driverless cars
now the third paradox of driverless cars
now the third paradox of driverless cars is that they do both good things and
is that they do both good things and
is that they do both good things and both some undetermined things they could
both some undetermined things they could
both some undetermined things they could push development further out from cities
push development further out from cities
push development further out from cities or we could just use the space we have
or we could just use the space we have
or we could just use the space we have more efficiently electric vehicles can
more efficiently electric vehicles can
more efficiently electric vehicles can mean that although our commutes are
mean that although our commutes are
mean that although our commutes are longer maybe we have less emissions
longer maybe we have less emissions
longer maybe we have less emissions maybe two car households can downsize to
maybe two car households can downsize to
maybe two car households can downsize to one and mobility it can increase for
one and mobility it can increase for
one and mobility it can increase for everyone so we’re seeing these massive
everyone so we’re seeing these massive
everyone so we’re seeing these massive changes that the economy scale but it
changes that the economy scale but it
changes that the economy scale but it also makes a really big difference at
also makes a really big difference at
also makes a really big difference at the household scale and I think we can
the household scale and I think we can
the household scale and I think we can make three key changes today to usher in
make three key changes today to usher in
make three key changes today to usher in the age of the autonomous vehicle the
the age of the autonomous vehicle the
the age of the autonomous vehicle the first is just to spend more wisely
first is just to spend more wisely
first is just to spend more wisely because autonomous vehicles are hitting
because autonomous vehicles are hitting
because autonomous vehicles are hitting the market faster than your car loan
the market faster than your car loan
the market faster than your car loan will mature this car is going to be your
will mature this car is going to be your
will mature this car is going to be your last we can use those savings that we
last we can use those savings that we
last we can use those savings that we experience from transportation and we
experience from transportation and we
experience from transportation and we can offer up new housing opportunities
can offer up new housing opportunities
can offer up new housing opportunities maybe Millennials can finally move out
maybe Millennials can finally move out
maybe Millennials can finally move out of their parents basements the
of their parents basements the
of their parents basements the driverless car can increase mobility and
driverless car can increase mobility and
driverless car can increase mobility and access for all ages we can even get more
access for all ages we can even get more
access for all ages we can even get more from our garages as housing our parking
from our garages as housing our parking
from our garages as housing our parking lots into parks or our driveways as
lots into parks or our driveways as
lots into parks or our driveways as patios I know this seems a little
patios I know this seems a little
patios I know this seems a little futuristic but I hope you understand
futuristic but I hope you understand
futuristic but I hope you understand Nell that the autonomous revolution is
Nell that the autonomous revolution is
Nell that the autonomous revolution is not about robots it’s about people and
not about robots it’s about people and
not about robots it’s about people and places and property value and I want you
places and property value and I want you
places and property value and I want you to imagine what that looks like for the
to imagine what that looks like for the
to imagine what that looks like for the people in your life because I know I can
people in your life because I know I can
people in your life because I know I can imagine how it could change the lives of
imagine how it could change the lives of
imagine how it could change the lives of people that I hold dear my 13 year old
people that I hold dear my 13 year old
people that I hold dear my 13 year old niece never has to learn how to drive my
niece never has to learn how to drive my
niece never has to learn how to drive my 93 year old grandma whose
93 year old grandma whose
93 year old grandma whose driving herself could continue to be
driving herself could continue to be
driving herself could continue to be mobile for many many years and a dear
mobile for many many years and a dear
mobile for many many years and a dear friend of mine who couldn’t make here
friend of mine who couldn’t make here
friend of mine who couldn’t make here tonight not because he doesn’t have a
tonight not because he doesn’t have a
tonight not because he doesn’t have a car his car is big enough to accommodate
car his car is big enough to accommodate
car his car is big enough to accommodate his wheelchair he didn’t have anybody to
his wheelchair he didn’t have anybody to
his wheelchair he didn’t have anybody to drive him here
and I look forward to the day when he
and I look forward to the day when he doesn’t need anybody when our cities can
doesn’t need anybody when our cities can
doesn’t need anybody when our cities can become more inclusive more mobile we can
become more inclusive more mobile we can
become more inclusive more mobile we can free people from location and here
free people from location and here
free people from location and here becomes there and there can become
becomes there and there can become
becomes there and there can become everywhere location the fundamental rule
everywhere location the fundamental rule
everywhere location the fundamental rule of real estate is broken because
of real estate is broken because
of real estate is broken because location is ubiquitous with the lifts of
location is ubiquitous with the lifts of
location is ubiquitous with the lifts of a thumb and I hope you’re not scared
a thumb and I hope you’re not scared
a thumb and I hope you’re not scared about driverless cars because I think
about driverless cars because I think
about driverless cars because I think they can really increase the quality of
they can really increase the quality of
they can really increase the quality of life and they can shape our cities for
life and they can shape our cities for
life and they can shape our cities for the better they have the opportunity to
the better they have the opportunity to
the better they have the opportunity to reorganize budgets reclaim space and
reorganize budgets reclaim space and
reorganize budgets reclaim space and redefine mobility if we seize this
redefine mobility if we seize this
redefine mobility if we seize this opportunity now we can make the cities
opportunity now we can make the cities
opportunity now we can make the cities the future more livable for everyone and
the future more livable for everyone and
the future more livable for everyone and we can get there faster without having
we can get there faster without having
we can get there faster without having to worry about are we there yet
to worry about are we there yet
to worry about are we there yet thank you
thank you
thank you [Applause]
you
you [Music]
”
Be First to Comment