[Applause] thank you there is a town in southern
thank you there is a town in southern
thank you there is a town in southern Iraq sanae-san province that you’ve
Iraq sanae-san province that you’ve
Iraq sanae-san province that you’ve probably never heard of the town’s
probably never heard of the town’s
probably never heard of the town’s 35,000 people go about their lives much
35,000 people go about their lives much
35,000 people go about their lives much like you right
like you right
like you right they go to the market they meet with
they go to the market they meet with
they go to the market they meet with friends over a meal or a cup of thick
friends over a meal or a cup of thick
friends over a meal or a cup of thick black tea they talk the latest gossip
black tea they talk the latest gossip
black tea they talk the latest gossip their hopes for the future and they
their hopes for the future and they
their hopes for the future and they dream at night it’s how life has been
dream at night it’s how life has been
dream at night it’s how life has been there for generations the town’s name is
there for generations the town’s name is
there for generations the town’s name is in the jar I’ll come in on the 24th of
in the jar I’ll come in on the 24th of
in the jar I’ll come in on the 24th of June 2003 six flesh army role military
June 2003 six flesh army role military
June 2003 six flesh army role military police Redcaps
police Redcaps
police Redcaps enter the town to begin the task of
enter the town to begin the task of
enter the town to begin the task of rebuilding the local police station and
rebuilding the local police station and
rebuilding the local police station and training recruits to fit after the brief
training recruits to fit after the brief
training recruits to fit after the brief war to destroy the infrastructure in the
war to destroy the infrastructure in the
war to destroy the infrastructure in the area these would have been the first
area these would have been the first
area these would have been the first step back to normality and back 10 a.m.
step back to normality and back 10 a.m.
step back to normality and back 10 a.m. that day they arrived in the town and
that day they arrived in the town and
that day they arrived in the town and they were greeted warming for about
they were greeted warming for about
they were greeted warming for about thirty minutes
thirty minutes
thirty minutes they shared team of the town elders and
they shared team of the town elders and
they shared team of the town elders and they talked about the best way to return
they talked about the best way to return
they talked about the best way to return to effective policing after the
to effective policing after the
to effective policing after the destruction of Saddam’s ruling Baath
destruction of Saddam’s ruling Baath
destruction of Saddam’s ruling Baath Party this was a simple mission this
Party this was a simple mission this
Party this was a simple mission this wasn’t gonna be a hard assignment
wasn’t gonna be a hard assignment
wasn’t gonna be a hard assignment military intelligence evaluated the town
military intelligence evaluated the town
military intelligence evaluated the town and they assessed it as low risk and
and they assessed it as low risk and
and they assessed it as low risk and benign so low risk and so benign in fact
benign so low risk and so benign in fact
benign so low risk and so benign in fact that the red caps were only carried 50
that the red caps were only carried 50
that the red caps were only carried 50 rounds of ammunition down from the
rounds of ammunition down from the
rounds of ammunition down from the normal 600 bullets that each one of them
normal 600 bullets that each one of them
normal 600 bullets that each one of them with character and they’ve been provided
with character and they’ve been provided
with character and they’ve been provided only with emergency radios that were
only with emergency radios that were
only with emergency radios that were antiquated and too bulky to care
despite this assessment of low risk by
despite this assessment of low risk by midday just two hours after arriving in
midday just two hours after arriving in
midday just two hours after arriving in the town
the town
the town all thick soldiers have been murdered
all thick soldiers have been murdered
all thick soldiers have been murdered shot dead huddled in the back room of
shot dead huddled in the back room of
shot dead huddled in the back room of the police station they come to rebuild
the police station they come to rebuild
the police station they come to rebuild by a mob armed with automatic weapons so
by a mob armed with automatic weapons so
by a mob armed with automatic weapons so this event affected me deeply at the
this event affected me deeply at the
this event affected me deeply at the moment they will have Ling in that room
moment they will have Ling in that room
moment they will have Ling in that room being surrounded by murderous crowd I
being surrounded by murderous crowd I
being surrounded by murderous crowd I was also into southern Iraq I was a
was also into southern Iraq I was a
was also into southern Iraq I was a captain in the British Army serving in
captain in the British Army serving in
captain in the British Army serving in the same province serving in the same
the same province serving in the same
the same province serving in the same brigade as the Red Hat’s after the war
brigade as the Red Hat’s after the war
brigade as the Red Hat’s after the war fighting has finished I was carrying out
fighting has finished I was carrying out
fighting has finished I was carrying out the role of a military intelligence
the role of a military intelligence
the role of a military intelligence officer I met and I served with each one
officer I met and I served with each one
officer I met and I served with each one of the six red caps so of course as you
of the six red caps so of course as you
of the six red caps so of course as you can imagine I asked myself at how could
can imagine I asked myself at how could
can imagine I asked myself at how could this possibly happen when we’ve been so
this possibly happen when we’ve been so
this possibly happen when we’ve been so sure and so confident that the risk was
sure and so confident that the risk was
sure and so confident that the risk was like how did things end up like this an
like how did things end up like this an
like how did things end up like this an initiate I came to the conclusion that
initiate I came to the conclusion that
initiate I came to the conclusion that we just got it wrong we missed something
we just got it wrong we missed something
we just got it wrong we missed something we made a tragic miscalculation we
we made a tragic miscalculation we
we made a tragic miscalculation we didn’t understand the area all the
didn’t understand the area all the
didn’t understand the area all the people as well as we thought but even
people as well as we thought but even
people as well as we thought but even with the advantage of hindsight I
with the advantage of hindsight I
with the advantage of hindsight I couldn’t find that thing that we’ve
couldn’t find that thing that we’ve
couldn’t find that thing that we’ve missed I couldn’t find what we’d
missed I couldn’t find what we’d
missed I couldn’t find what we’d overlooked or misunderstood and standing
overlooked or misunderstood and standing
overlooked or misunderstood and standing here in front of you 13 years later I
here in front of you 13 years later I
here in front of you 13 years later I can still tell you that the risk of an
can still tell you that the risk of an
can still tell you that the risk of an armed mob turning on a team of British
armed mob turning on a team of British
armed mob turning on a team of British soldiers who’ve gone there to help them
soldiers who’ve gone there to help them
soldiers who’ve gone there to help them to rebuild was alone no question and
to rebuild was alone no question and
to rebuild was alone no question and even if an angry count had congregated
even if an angry count had congregated
even if an angry count had congregated then they would have told the soldiers
then they would have told the soldiers
then they would have told the soldiers to leave
to leave
to leave and told him to never come back to us
and told him to never come back to us
and told him to never come back to us there was no way and living killed so in
there was no way and living killed so in
there was no way and living killed so in my soul searching in my question and in
my soul searching in my question and in
my soul searching in my question and in my seeking to understand I had a
my seeking to understand I had a
my seeking to understand I had a realization and I realized that we
realization and I realized that we
realization and I realized that we hadn’t got it wrong
hadn’t got it wrong
hadn’t got it wrong I realized that tragically we’ve got it
I realized that tragically we’ve got it
I realized that tragically we’ve got it right but we’ve got it right Union
right but we’ve got it right Union
right but we’ve got it right Union completely flawed system and that flawed
completely flawed system and that flawed
completely flawed system and that flawed system was the conformity that we
system was the conformity that we
system was the conformity that we followed and it’s using the system of
followed and it’s using the system of
followed and it’s using the system of risk for as long as people have been
risk for as long as people have been
risk for as long as people have been around risk has been our way of dealing
around risk has been our way of dealing
around risk has been our way of dealing with danger today let’s call this
with danger today let’s call this
with danger today let’s call this version one risk operating one device at
version one risk operating one device at
version one risk operating one device at a time when things were simple when we
a time when things were simple when we
a time when things were simple when we lived in caves and everything’s out
lived in caves and everything’s out
lived in caves and everything’s out there trying to kill us
there trying to kill us
there trying to kill us whether it be saber-toothed tiger or so
whether it be saber-toothed tiger or so
whether it be saber-toothed tiger or so we had to look at everything and stack
we had to look at everything and stack
we had to look at everything and stack them up to understand which one was most
them up to understand which one was most
them up to understand which one was most likely to come knocking today so that we
likely to come knocking today so that we
likely to come knocking today so that we could do something about it
could do something about it
could do something about it only this way could we survive but with
only this way could we survive but with
only this way could we survive but with today’s complexities with the challenges
today’s complexities with the challenges
today’s complexities with the challenges that we face the speed of human
that we face the speed of human
that we face the speed of human interaction this model that would be
interaction this model that would be
interaction this model that would be performing to four generations is no
performing to four generations is no
performing to four generations is no longer relevant
longer relevant
longer relevant we need to upgrade from version one risk
we need to upgrade from version one risk
we need to upgrade from version one risk operating model to a new version – so
operating model to a new version – so
operating model to a new version – so and this is really important kind of
and this is really important kind of
and this is really important kind of everything on this go forward talking
everything on this go forward talking
everything on this go forward talking about that version one risk is the
about that version one risk is the
about that version one risk is the concept of risk that we all understand
concept of risk that we all understand
concept of risk that we all understand we use every day and that has been
we use every day and that has been
we use every day and that has been around for generations version two is
around for generations version two is
around for generations version two is something a new and updated
red keys some tom was one of the red
red keys some tom was one of the red caps murdered in the jar alchemy that
caps murdered in the jar alchemy that
caps murdered in the jar alchemy that day Tom was murdered just four days
day Tom was murdered just four days
day Tom was murdered just four days before his 21st birthday in his letters
before his 21st birthday in his letters
before his 21st birthday in his letters and phone calls home rage remembers that
and phone calls home rage remembers that
and phone calls home rage remembers that his son didn’t talk about risk Gregor
his son didn’t talk about risk Gregor
his son didn’t talk about risk Gregor and his son spoke about feeling acutely
and his son spoke about feeling acutely
and his son spoke about feeling acutely aware an uncharacteristic disturbed by
aware an uncharacteristic disturbed by
aware an uncharacteristic disturbed by his own vulnerability in the chart al
his own vulnerability in the chart al
his own vulnerability in the chart al Kabeer
Kabeer
Kabeer under version 1 risk operating model as
under version 1 risk operating model as
under version 1 risk operating model as I’ve said there was no question and it
I’ve said there was no question and it
I’ve said there was no question and it was low risk but any brief soldier in
was low risk but any brief soldier in
was low risk but any brief soldier in that town with only 50 rounds of
that town with only 50 rounds of
that town with only 50 rounds of ammunition and no protection and no
ammunition and no protection and no
ammunition and no protection and no chance of backup was without question
chance of backup was without question
chance of backup was without question exceptionally
if instead of looking at the risk there
if instead of looking at the risk there trying to figure out if something could
trying to figure out if something could
trying to figure out if something could go wrong which focused on vulnerability
go wrong which focused on vulnerability
go wrong which focused on vulnerability and phrase with those six team members
and phrase with those six team members
and phrase with those six team members have ever gone into that town alone
have ever gone into that town alone
have ever gone into that town alone without body armor with no protection
without body armor with no protection
without body armor with no protection and with no support
and it’s not just in situations as
and it’s not just in situations as tragic life-threatening or an engine of
tragic life-threatening or an engine of
tragic life-threatening or an engine of war where this is true we see the
war where this is true we see the
war where this is true we see the version one was operating model being
version one was operating model being
version one was operating model being used completely adequately to try and
used completely adequately to try and
used completely adequately to try and control today’s complex threats
control today’s complex threats
control today’s complex threats coroico Bolden was a london-based
coroico Bolden was a london-based
coroico Bolden was a london-based trainer when his three-year scam cost
trainer when his three-year scam cost
trainer when his three-year scam cost the UBS bank one and a half billion u.s.
the UBS bank one and a half billion u.s.
the UBS bank one and a half billion u.s. dollars in 2011 when he was released
dollars in 2011 when he was released
dollars in 2011 when he was released from prison earlier this year he said
from prison earlier this year he said
from prison earlier this year he said that if fights continued to chase the
that if fights continued to chase the
that if fights continued to chase the same level of profitability as in the
same level of profitability as in the
same level of profitability as in the past then the only way to generate these
past then the only way to generate these
past then the only way to generate these profits is to take more risk to put it
profits is to take more risk to put it
profits is to take more risk to put it another way banks remain cripplingly
another way banks remain cripplingly
another way banks remain cripplingly vulnerable to rogue traders despite all
vulnerable to rogue traders despite all
vulnerable to rogue traders despite all the controls they’re put in place
the controls they’re put in place
the controls they’re put in place because they’re happy to accept and are
because they’re happy to accept and are
because they’re happy to accept and are complacent around risk okay now I do
complacent around risk okay now I do
complacent around risk okay now I do have a small job for you today I know
have a small job for you today I know
have a small job for you today I know you weren’t expecting this as billions
you weren’t expecting this as billions
you weren’t expecting this as billions and I understand that it’s it’s a high
and I understand that it’s it’s a high
and I understand that it’s it’s a high pressure on you got there it’s out there
pressure on you got there it’s out there
pressure on you got there it’s out there doing good audience in everybody’s eyes
doing good audience in everybody’s eyes
doing good audience in everybody’s eyes on you don’t worry I’m going to keep it
on you don’t worry I’m going to keep it
on you don’t worry I’m going to keep it really really simple and straightforward
really really simple and straightforward
really really simple and straightforward what I wanted to do is right now or even
what I wanted to do is right now or even
what I wanted to do is right now or even if that’s too much of a challenge just
if that’s too much of a challenge just
if that’s too much of a challenge just think about your favorite color
so I was just talking about how banks
so I was just talking about how banks surround themselves with risk despite
surround themselves with risk despite
surround themselves with risk despite the known history with road traders in
the known history with road traders in
the known history with road traders in the 2008 crash so let’s compare the
the 2008 crash so let’s compare the
the 2008 crash so let’s compare the bank’s version one approach to Google
bank’s version one approach to Google
bank’s version one approach to Google and Facebook Google and Facebook embrace
and Facebook Google and Facebook embrace
and Facebook Google and Facebook embrace version 2 and actively seek out on the
version 2 and actively seek out on the
version 2 and actively seek out on the hood in May this year Facebook a 10 year
hood in May this year Facebook a 10 year
hood in May this year Facebook a 10 year old boy in Finland
old boy in Finland
old boy in Finland ten thousand US dollars because he
ten thousand US dollars because he
ten thousand US dollars because he identified vulnerability in this truck
identified vulnerability in this truck
identified vulnerability in this truck that made it possible for hackers to
that made it possible for hackers to
that made it possible for hackers to delete the comments from other users
delete the comments from other users
delete the comments from other users currently Google has a hundred thousand
currently Google has a hundred thousand
currently Google has a hundred thousand US dollars up for grabs if you can hack
US dollars up for grabs if you can hack
US dollars up for grabs if you can hack Chromebook software and expose its
Chromebook software and expose its
Chromebook software and expose its vulnerability Google and Facebook aren’t
vulnerability Google and Facebook aren’t
vulnerability Google and Facebook aren’t looking at the risk of hacking
looking at the risk of hacking
looking at the risk of hacking they are using version two to actively
they are using version two to actively
they are using version two to actively seek out how its vulnerable to being
seek out how its vulnerable to being
seek out how its vulnerable to being hacked under version 1 risk operating
hacked under version 1 risk operating
hacked under version 1 risk operating model what we try to do is we try to
model what we try to do is we try to
model what we try to do is we try to calculate likelihood and then we use it
calculate likelihood and then we use it
calculate likelihood and then we use it to prioritize risks or to satisfy
to prioritize risks or to satisfy
to prioritize risks or to satisfy ourselves at their control casinos and
ourselves at their control casinos and
ourselves at their control casinos and banks use the Lorelei’s members to
banks use the Lorelei’s members to
banks use the Lorelei’s members to understand likelihood and then to set
understand likelihood and then to set
understand likelihood and then to set favorable odds if a game is based on the
favorable odds if a game is based on the
favorable odds if a game is based on the toss of a coin the likelihood of the
toss of a coin the likelihood of the
toss of a coin the likelihood of the coin landing on heads or tails is
coin landing on heads or tails is
coin landing on heads or tails is completely objective they can’t be
completely objective they can’t be
completely objective they can’t be influenced by human made over time you
influenced by human made over time you
influenced by human made over time you toss the coin a billion times it will
toss the coin a billion times it will
toss the coin a billion times it will land 50% heads and 50% tails and in some
land 50% heads and 50% tails and in some
land 50% heads and 50% tails and in some bad news for all you professional
bad news for all you professional
bad news for all you professional gamblers here with a payout of less than
gamblers here with a payout of less than
gamblers here with a payout of less than 2 to 1 a house will win that’s why
2 to 1 a house will win that’s why
2 to 1 a house will win that’s why casino has a chandelier and not a strip
casino has a chandelier and not a strip
casino has a chandelier and not a strip light
but unlike it unlike a coin people are
but unlike it unlike a coin people are unpredictable and inconsistent what
unpredictable and inconsistent what
unpredictable and inconsistent what makes the world an amazing place for a
makes the world an amazing place for a
makes the world an amazing place for a diversity full of challenge and
diversity full of challenge and
diversity full of challenge and excitement they’re trying to apply the
excitement they’re trying to apply the
excitement they’re trying to apply the law of large numbers to volatile
law of large numbers to volatile
law of large numbers to volatile subjective human behavior it’s
subjective human behavior it’s
subjective human behavior it’s fundamentally for sure and yet this is
fundamentally for sure and yet this is
fundamentally for sure and yet this is what we do on the version 1 risk
what we do on the version 1 risk
what we do on the version 1 risk management operating system
ok so favorite color remember a tough
ok so favorite color remember a tough assignment is to write very good yellow
assignment is to write very good yellow
assignment is to write very good yellow somebody say I’m somebody from the back
turquoise so using version 1.0 risk
turquoise so using version 1.0 risk operating system it’s a bit like asking
operating system it’s a bit like asking
operating system it’s a bit like asking you all to agree on a collective
you all to agree on a collective
you all to agree on a collective favorite color
favorite color
favorite color you’ve got completely diverse opinions
you’ve got completely diverse opinions
you’ve got completely diverse opinions based on your personal taste your
based on your personal taste your
based on your personal taste your natural biases your upbringing your
natural biases your upbringing your
natural biases your upbringing your culture your history with recent
culture your history with recent
culture your history with recent experiences or whatever and yet this is
experiences or whatever and yet this is
experiences or whatever and yet this is what we try to do with our version 1
what we try to do with our version 1
what we try to do with our version 1 risk operating under version 1 operating
risk operating under version 1 operating
risk operating under version 1 operating what we try to do is we try to neatly
what we try to do is we try to neatly
what we try to do is we try to neatly put risk into a box or as what we should
put risk into a box or as what we should
put risk into a box or as what we should be doing is climbing out of the box and
be doing is climbing out of the box and
be doing is climbing out of the box and going hunting for vulnerabilities
using the version 1.0 risk operating
using the version 1.0 risk operating system or anything involving nature or
system or anything involving nature or
system or anything involving nature or people is flawed in the 1960s a version
people is flawed in the 1960s a version
people is flawed in the 1960s a version 1 risk assessment soon to be built
1 risk assessment soon to be built
1 risk assessment soon to be built Fukushima nuclear power plant defined
Fukushima nuclear power plant defined
Fukushima nuclear power plant defined that it needs to be able to withstand
that it needs to be able to withstand
that it needs to be able to withstand the force of a 19-foot tsunami of course
the force of a 19-foot tsunami of course
the force of a 19-foot tsunami of course in 2011 a 46-foot tsunami came and
in 2011 a 46-foot tsunami came and
in 2011 a 46-foot tsunami came and swamped the plant has shown the world
swamped the plant has shown the world
swamped the plant has shown the world how vulnerable a nuclear reactor could
how vulnerable a nuclear reactor could
how vulnerable a nuclear reactor could be in 2003 NASA used the version what
be in 2003 NASA used the version what
be in 2003 NASA used the version what one risk assessment to approve an
one risk assessment to approve an
one risk assessment to approve an authorized net damage to omni shuttle
authorized net damage to omni shuttle
authorized net damage to omni shuttle debris enter the Earth’s atmosphere
tragically all seven crew members were
tragically all seven crew members were killed when the vulnerability and the
killed when the vulnerability and the
killed when the vulnerability and the heat proof shield of Columbia’s with led
heat proof shield of Columbia’s with led
heat proof shield of Columbia’s with led to it disintegrated on re-entry over
to it disintegrated on re-entry over
to it disintegrated on re-entry over Texas and Louisiana so on each occasion
Texas and Louisiana so on each occasion
Texas and Louisiana so on each occasion in those two examples version 1 thinking
in those two examples version 1 thinking
in those two examples version 1 thinking fell short and although each event the
fell short and although each event the
fell short and although each event the tsunami and the disintegration of a
tsunami and the disintegration of a
tsunami and the disintegration of a spaceship was exceptionally low risk
spaceship was exceptionally low risk
spaceship was exceptionally low risk Columbia and Fukushima proved to be
Columbia and Fukushima proved to be
Columbia and Fukushima proved to be heartbreakingly vulnerable version 2.0
heartbreakingly vulnerable version 2.0
heartbreakingly vulnerable version 2.0 the vulnerability model is a healthy
the vulnerability model is a healthy
the vulnerability model is a healthy paradox because they focus on one
paradox because they focus on one
paradox because they focus on one ability we have to have a deep sense of
ability we have to have a deep sense of
ability we have to have a deep sense of paranoia built on a foundation okay so
paranoia built on a foundation okay so
paranoia built on a foundation okay so it’s care and paranoia so it’s like
it’s care and paranoia so it’s like
it’s care and paranoia so it’s like paranoia right
see within their paranoia from paranoia
see within their paranoia from paranoia we seek out other abilities and from the
we seek out other abilities and from the
we seek out other abilities and from the vulnerabilities that we find it drives
vulnerabilities that we find it drives
vulnerabilities that we find it drives our paranoia completing the circle and
our paranoia completing the circle and
our paranoia completing the circle and our version – vulnerability operating
our version – vulnerability operating
our version – vulnerability operating system version 1 with management
system version 1 with management
system version 1 with management operating system is a dangerous paradox
operating system is a dangerous paradox
operating system is a dangerous paradox because the more we focus on risk the
because the more we focus on risk the
because the more we focus on risk the more we surround ourselves with us and
more we surround ourselves with us and
more we surround ourselves with us and the more we surround ourselves with risk
the more we surround ourselves with risk
the more we surround ourselves with risk the more comfortable we become so we
the more comfortable we become so we
the more comfortable we become so we need to move away from our preoccupation
need to move away from our preoccupation
need to move away from our preoccupation with risk just like on the dusty streets
with risk just like on the dusty streets
with risk just like on the dusty streets of majare al Kabeer in 2003 it gives us
of majare al Kabeer in 2003 it gives us
of majare al Kabeer in 2003 it gives us a false sense of comfort and for
a false sense of comfort and for
a false sense of comfort and for anything more subjective in the toss of
anything more subjective in the toss of
anything more subjective in the toss of a coin it’s completely full we need to
a coin it’s completely full we need to
a coin it’s completely full we need to challenge conformity we need to move
challenge conformity we need to move
challenge conformity we need to move through a version to vulnerability model
through a version to vulnerability model
through a version to vulnerability model and take our vulnerabilities and drive
and take our vulnerabilities and drive
and take our vulnerabilities and drive our natural
our natural
our natural [Music]
”
Be First to Comment