I’ve dedicated my entire career to the study of artificial intelligence or AI
study of artificial intelligence or AI
study of artificial intelligence or AI for short so you can imagine that this
for short so you can imagine that this
for short so you can imagine that this question is AI evil is very much on my
question is AI evil is very much on my
question is AI evil is very much on my mind to get started let me show you a
mind to get started let me show you a
mind to get started let me show you a few items and get your gut reaction evil
few items and get your gut reaction evil
few items and get your gut reaction evil or not land mines land mines are clearly
or not land mines land mines are clearly
or not land mines land mines are clearly evil they kill and maim innocence they
evil they kill and maim innocence they
evil they kill and maim innocence they stick around for decades we’ve signed an
stick around for decades we’ve signed an
stick around for decades we’ve signed an international treaty to ban them how
international treaty to ban them how
international treaty to ban them how about technologies such as washing
about technologies such as washing
about technologies such as washing machines antibiotics and textiles they
machines antibiotics and textiles they
machines antibiotics and textiles they save our time eradicate diseases provide
save our time eradicate diseases provide
save our time eradicate diseases provide affordable clothing good stuff right
affordable clothing good stuff right
affordable clothing good stuff right well historically many new technologies
well historically many new technologies
well historically many new technologies were greeted with some resistance and
were greeted with some resistance and
were greeted with some resistance and suspicion the 19th century Luddites
suspicion the 19th century Luddites
suspicion the 19th century Luddites fought the introduction of looms the
fought the introduction of looms the
fought the introduction of looms the beginning of the textile industry they
beginning of the textile industry they
beginning of the textile industry they threw shoes into the looms to disrupt
threw shoes into the looms to disrupt
threw shoes into the looms to disrupt their operation ultimately a misguided
their operation ultimately a misguided
their operation ultimately a misguided gesture so how about AI is AI good or
gesture so how about AI is AI good or
gesture so how about AI is AI good or evil should we attempt to ban AI as we
evil should we attempt to ban AI as we
evil should we attempt to ban AI as we did with land mines how many of you have
did with land mines how many of you have
did with land mines how many of you have some very real concerns about AI please
some very real concerns about AI please
some very real concerns about AI please raise your hands high no surprise a eyes
raise your hands high no surprise a eyes
raise your hands high no surprise a eyes gotten a bad rap in Hollywood films such
gotten a bad rap in Hollywood films such
gotten a bad rap in Hollywood films such as The Terminator in the press from
as The Terminator in the press from
as The Terminator in the press from prominent scientists such as the
prominent scientists such as the
prominent scientists such as the physicist Stephen Hawking Hawking says
physicist Stephen Hawking Hawking says
physicist Stephen Hawking Hawking says that AI could be the worst thing that’s
that AI could be the worst thing that’s
that AI could be the worst thing that’s ever happened to the human race
ever happened to the human race
ever happened to the human race worse than climate change worse than
worse than climate change worse than
worse than climate change worse than nuclear weapons the fear is real I get
nuclear weapons the fear is real I get
nuclear weapons the fear is real I get it
it
it some of the most virulent statements
some of the most virulent statements
some of the most virulent statements against the AI have come from the
against the AI have come from the
against the AI have come from the entrepreneur Elon Musk he says that with
entrepreneur Elon Musk he says that with
entrepreneur Elon Musk he says that with a I were summoning the demon that AI
a I were summoning the demon that AI
a I were summoning the demon that AI could be a threat to the very existence
could be a threat to the very existence
could be a threat to the very existence of the human race frankly this demon
of the human race frankly this demon
of the human race frankly this demon talk hurts but let’s put emotions aside
talk hurts but let’s put emotions aside
talk hurts but let’s put emotions aside and and spend our time trying trying to
and and spend our time trying trying to
and and spend our time trying trying to discuss AI rationally is AI an
discuss AI rationally is AI an
discuss AI rationally is AI an existential threat to the human race
existential threat to the human race
existential threat to the human race Newsweek magazine sees AI as a
Newsweek magazine sees AI as a
Newsweek magazine sees AI as a clear and present danger with headlines
clear and present danger with headlines
clear and present danger with headlines like AI is coming in it’s poised to wipe
like AI is coming in it’s poised to wipe
like AI is coming in it’s poised to wipe us out and Newsweek isn’t an outlier we
us out and Newsweek isn’t an outlier we
us out and Newsweek isn’t an outlier we see these headlines over and over again
see these headlines over and over again
see these headlines over and over again frankly they sell they sell newspapers
frankly they sell they sell newspapers
frankly they sell they sell newspapers but still the question is is AI poised
but still the question is is AI poised
but still the question is is AI poised to wipe us out the renowned roboticist
to wipe us out the renowned roboticist
to wipe us out the renowned roboticist rod Brooks says if you’re worried about
rod Brooks says if you’re worried about
rod Brooks says if you’re worried about the Terminator just keep the door closed
ai technology still has a long long way
ai technology still has a long long way to go but my colleague and Goering likes
to go but my colleague and Goering likes
to go but my colleague and Goering likes to say if you’re worried about AI
to say if you’re worried about AI
to say if you’re worried about AI turning evil that’s like worrying about
turning evil that’s like worrying about
turning evil that’s like worrying about overpopulation on Mars it’s just way
overpopulation on Mars it’s just way
overpopulation on Mars it’s just way beyond the pale but nevertheless what
beyond the pale but nevertheless what
beyond the pale but nevertheless what happens in the future what happens when
happens in the future what happens when
happens in the future what happens when the robot finally figures out how to
the robot finally figures out how to
the robot finally figures out how to open that door well to answer that
open that door well to answer that
open that door well to answer that question we need to take a step back and
question we need to take a step back and
question we need to take a step back and ask what is AI exactly in Hollywood
ask what is AI exactly in Hollywood
ask what is AI exactly in Hollywood films it’s typically depicted as a
films it’s typically depicted as a
films it’s typically depicted as a creepy being I can’t do that Dave but we
creepy being I can’t do that Dave but we
creepy being I can’t do that Dave but we need to separate Hollywood from the real
need to separate Hollywood from the real
need to separate Hollywood from the real world and science fiction from real
world and science fiction from real
world and science fiction from real science to get deeper into this let’s
science to get deeper into this let’s
science to get deeper into this let’s look at one of the most impressive AI
look at one of the most impressive AI
look at one of the most impressive AI systems ever built in March 2016 the
systems ever built in March 2016 the
systems ever built in March 2016 the computer program alphago defeated the
computer program alphago defeated the
computer program alphago defeated the human world champion in the ancient
human world champion in the ancient
human world champion in the ancient board game of go like more than a
board game of go like more than a
board game of go like more than a hundred million people I was following
hundred million people I was following
hundred million people I was following the match riveted but unlike some I
the match riveted but unlike some I
the match riveted but unlike some I wasn’t surprised by the outcome when it
wasn’t surprised by the outcome when it
wasn’t surprised by the outcome when it comes to puzzles two board games AI is
comes to puzzles two board games AI is
comes to puzzles two board games AI is unstoppable
unstoppable
unstoppable it’s able to look at billions of
it’s able to look at billions of
it’s able to look at billions of permutations at superhuman speeds but
permutations at superhuman speeds but
permutations at superhuman speeds but the real world is more complex is more
the real world is more complex is more
the real world is more complex is more nuanced and the fact of the matter is
nuanced and the fact of the matter is
nuanced and the fact of the matter is that alphago is a very limited system to
that alphago is a very limited system to
that alphago is a very limited system to illustrate this I wrote down some
illustrate this I wrote down some
illustrate this I wrote down some questions that I would ask alphago if we
questions that I would ask alphago if we
questions that I would ask alphago if we were introduced in some AI cocktail
were introduced in some AI cocktail
were introduced in some AI cocktail party I would say alphago can you play
party I would say alphago can you play
party I would say alphago can you play poker the answer is No alphago can only
poker the answer is No alphago can only
poker the answer is No alphago can only play go it doesn’t even extend to other
play go it doesn’t even extend to other
play go it doesn’t even extend to other games
games
games alphago can you cross the street
alphago can you cross the street
alphago can you cross the street again the answer is No alphago cannot do
again the answer is No alphago cannot do
again the answer is No alphago cannot do what a human child can do it doesn’t
what a human child can do it doesn’t
what a human child can do it doesn’t even know what a Street is alphago can
even know what a Street is alphago can
even know what a Street is alphago can you tell me about the game turns out
you tell me about the game turns out
you tell me about the game turns out again the answer is No alphago doesn’t
again the answer is No alphago doesn’t
again the answer is No alphago doesn’t understand the game
understand the game
understand the game it can’t explain itself it doesn’t even
it can’t explain itself it doesn’t even
it can’t explain itself it doesn’t even know it won there’s a key distinction
know it won there’s a key distinction
know it won there’s a key distinction here that we need to make to understand
here that we need to make to understand
here that we need to make to understand alphago and AI systems in more in more
alphago and AI systems in more in more
alphago and AI systems in more in more general terms and that’s the distinction
general terms and that’s the distinction
general terms and that’s the distinction between intelligence on the one hand and
between intelligence on the one hand and
between intelligence on the one hand and autonomy on the other hand this is the
autonomy on the other hand this is the
autonomy on the other hand this is the key so please stick with me here I’m
key so please stick with me here I’m
key so please stick with me here I’m going to illustrate this using a
going to illustrate this using a
going to illustrate this using a two-by-two table in the top left we have
two-by-two table in the top left we have
two-by-two table in the top left we have high autonomy with minimal intelligence
high autonomy with minimal intelligence
high autonomy with minimal intelligence that’s a bunch of teenagers drinking on
that’s a bunch of teenagers drinking on
that’s a bunch of teenagers drinking on a Saturday night and on the bottom right
a Saturday night and on the bottom right
a Saturday night and on the bottom right we have high intelligence with minimal
we have high intelligence with minimal
we have high intelligence with minimal autonomy and that’s AI systems like
autonomy and that’s AI systems like
autonomy and that’s AI systems like alphago nothing more than a fancy
alphago nothing more than a fancy
alphago nothing more than a fancy calculator with humans we have free will
calculator with humans we have free will
calculator with humans we have free will we make choices we’re intelligent
we make choices we’re intelligent
we make choices we’re intelligent intelligence and autonomy go hand in
intelligence and autonomy go hand in
intelligence and autonomy go hand in hand but machines are different you can
hand but machines are different you can
hand but machines are different you can be super intelligent in some narrow
be super intelligent in some narrow
be super intelligent in some narrow sense like playing go but have no
sense like playing go but have no
sense like playing go but have no autonomy whatsoever as another example
autonomy whatsoever as another example
autonomy whatsoever as another example look at computer viruses they’re
look at computer viruses they’re
look at computer viruses they’re autonomous they’re dangerous but they’re
autonomous they’re dangerous but they’re
autonomous they’re dangerous but they’re not intelligent so now we can go back to
not intelligent so now we can go back to
not intelligent so now we can go back to answer this question what is AI the real
answer this question what is AI the real
answer this question what is AI the real kind not the Hollywood version AI is a
kind not the Hollywood version AI is a
kind not the Hollywood version AI is a tool for people to use a pencil a fancy
tool for people to use a pencil a fancy
tool for people to use a pencil a fancy pencil sure but still something that we
pencil sure but still something that we
pencil sure but still something that we as people draw with my six-year-old
as people draw with my six-year-old
as people draw with my six-year-old mikey is more autonomous than any AI
mikey is more autonomous than any AI
mikey is more autonomous than any AI system he can make his choices he can
system he can make his choices he can
system he can make his choices he can cross the street he can explain himself
cross the street he can explain himself
cross the street he can explain himself he can understand English when he wants
he can understand English when he wants
he can understand English when he wants to
to
to that’s that’s the difference let’s look
that’s that’s the difference let’s look
that’s that’s the difference let’s look at weapon systems look military weapon
at weapon systems look military weapon
at weapon systems look military weapon systems are scary enough
systems are scary enough
systems are scary enough imagine a weapon system that can operate
imagine a weapon system that can operate
imagine a weapon system that can operate with no human-in-the-loop that can fly
with no human-in-the-loop that can fly
with no human-in-the-loop that can fly around halfway around the world to hunt
around halfway around the world to hunt
around halfway around the world to hunt somebody down and kill them that’s the
somebody down and kill them that’s the
somebody down and kill them that’s the stuff of nightmares right but notice the
stuff of nightmares right but notice the
stuff of nightmares right but notice the nightmare is the autonomy autonomous
nightmare is the autonomy autonomous
nightmare is the autonomy autonomous weapons are a nightmare and AI
weapons are a nightmare and AI
weapons are a nightmare and AI researchers are unequivocally opposed to
researchers are unequivocally opposed to
researchers are unequivocally opposed to these systems we’ve written a letter to
these systems we’ve written a letter to
these systems we’ve written a letter to President Obama saying so no autonomous
President Obama saying so no autonomous
President Obama saying so no autonomous weapons okay how about jobs that’s a
weapons okay how about jobs that’s a
weapons okay how about jobs that’s a concern AI and jobs how many jobs have
concern AI and jobs how many jobs have
concern AI and jobs how many jobs have been taken away dude automation how many
been taken away dude automation how many
been taken away dude automation how many more will be taken away due to the
more will be taken away due to the
more will be taken away due to the advance of AI Hal Varian Google’s chief
advance of AI Hal Varian Google’s chief
advance of AI Hal Varian Google’s chief economist says that the old jobs will go
economist says that the old jobs will go
economist says that the old jobs will go away and new jobs will come but how
away and new jobs will come but how
away and new jobs will come but how quickly will that happen and what will
quickly will that happen and what will
quickly will that happen and what will we do in the meantime this is a valid
we do in the meantime this is a valid
we do in the meantime this is a valid concern I stay up at night worrying
concern I stay up at night worrying
concern I stay up at night worrying about this my point is though that the
about this my point is though that the
about this my point is though that the doomsday headlines the Terminator
doomsday headlines the Terminator
doomsday headlines the Terminator scenario those are distractions from the
scenario those are distractions from the
scenario those are distractions from the real concerns like AI and jobs the
real concerns like AI and jobs the
real concerns like AI and jobs the concerns that we ought to be thinking
concerns that we ought to be thinking
concerns that we ought to be thinking about you might say okay then why play
about you might say okay then why play
about you might say okay then why play with fire as it were why not just
with fire as it were why not just
with fire as it were why not just declare a moratorium on AI and be done
declare a moratorium on AI and be done
declare a moratorium on AI and be done with it and first of all much as we
with it and first of all much as we
with it and first of all much as we would like to stop technology sometimes
would like to stop technology sometimes
would like to stop technology sometimes technological change is hard to stop to
technological change is hard to stop to
technological change is hard to stop to even slow down if we slow down our
even slow down if we slow down our
even slow down if we slow down our progress other nations will overtake us
progress other nations will overtake us
progress other nations will overtake us if you think about the past what if we
if you think about the past what if we
if you think about the past what if we slowed down our progress with
slowed down our progress with
slowed down our progress with technologies like electricity like
technologies like electricity like
technologies like electricity like antibiotics and think we want to live in
antibiotics and think we want to live in
antibiotics and think we want to live in a world where infant mortality is way up
a world where infant mortality is way up
a world where infant mortality is way up and life expectancy is way down we don’t
and life expectancy is way down we don’t
and life expectancy is way down we don’t want to go back to the Stone Age but the
want to go back to the Stone Age but the
want to go back to the Stone Age but the most important reason to investigate AI
most important reason to investigate AI
most important reason to investigate AI is that it has enormous potential
is that it has enormous potential
is that it has enormous potential benefits potential benefits that can
benefits potential benefits that can
benefits potential benefits that can save lives Paul Allen founded the
save lives Paul Allen founded the
save lives Paul Allen founded the nonprofit Allen Institute for artificial
nonprofit Allen Institute for artificial
nonprofit Allen Institute for artificial intelligence in Seattle with a clear
intelligence in Seattle with a clear
intelligence in Seattle with a clear mission AI for the
mission AI for the
mission AI for the and good my colleagues AI my colleagues
and good my colleagues AI my colleagues
and good my colleagues AI my colleagues and I at the Institute are not mad
and I at the Institute are not mad
and I at the Institute are not mad scientist and in love with our creations
scientist and in love with our creations
scientist and in love with our creations like dr. Frankenstein
like dr. Frankenstein
like dr. Frankenstein we’re sincere well-meaning folks trying
we’re sincere well-meaning folks trying
we’re sincere well-meaning folks trying to unlock the potential benefits of AI
to unlock the potential benefits of AI
to unlock the potential benefits of AI and let me give you two quick examples
and let me give you two quick examples
and let me give you two quick examples here first from the realm of science
here first from the realm of science
here first from the realm of science scientists researchers doctors were all
scientists researchers doctors were all
scientists researchers doctors were all inundated with documents and data and
inundated with documents and data and
inundated with documents and data and starving for insight and wisdom we need
starving for insight and wisdom we need
starving for insight and wisdom we need help to cut through the clutter to home
help to cut through the clutter to home
help to cut through the clutter to home in on the information that we need last
in on the information that we need last
in on the information that we need last year we launched a scientific search
year we launched a scientific search
year we launched a scientific search engine called semantic scholar it’s free
engine called semantic scholar it’s free
engine called semantic scholar it’s free it’s available over the internet and
it’s available over the internet and
it’s available over the internet and it’s been used by millions of people to
it’s been used by millions of people to
it’s been used by millions of people to do better science over time we’re going
do better science over time we’re going
do better science over time we’re going to see more and more sophisticated
to see more and more sophisticated
to see more and more sophisticated science search engines and science
science search engines and science
science search engines and science scientific helpers imagine a situation
scientific helpers imagine a situation
scientific helpers imagine a situation with a clue the cure for an intractable
with a clue the cure for an intractable
with a clue the cure for an intractable cancer is hidden somewhere amongst
cancer is hidden somewhere amongst
cancer is hidden somewhere amongst thousands and thousands of tedious
thousands and thousands of tedious
thousands and thousands of tedious clinical studies and experiments an AI
clinical studies and experiments an AI
clinical studies and experiments an AI search engine like Symantec scholar
search engine like Symantec scholar
search engine like Symantec scholar could help scientists connect the dots
could help scientists connect the dots
could help scientists connect the dots and find a cure that would otherwise be
and find a cure that would otherwise be
and find a cure that would otherwise be overlooked hey I can help scientists
overlooked hey I can help scientists
overlooked hey I can help scientists find the answers to Sciences thorniest
find the answers to Sciences thorniest
find the answers to Sciences thorniest problems my Microsoft colleague Eric
problems my Microsoft colleague Eric
problems my Microsoft colleague Eric Horowitz likes to say that it’s the
Horowitz likes to say that it’s the
Horowitz likes to say that it’s the absence of AI technologies that is
absence of AI technologies that is
absence of AI technologies that is already killing people due to medical
already killing people due to medical
already killing people due to medical errors preventable medical errors
errors preventable medical errors
errors preventable medical errors preventable medical errors are the third
preventable medical errors are the third
preventable medical errors are the third leading cause of death in American
leading cause of death in American
leading cause of death in American hospitals we can change that AI systems
hospitals we can change that AI systems
hospitals we can change that AI systems can warn exhausted and overworked
can warn exhausted and overworked
can warn exhausted and overworked doctors about mistakes that can point
doctors about mistakes that can point
doctors about mistakes that can point out to them new treatments they can make
out to them new treatments they can make
out to them new treatments they can make a difference and save lives when I look
a difference and save lives when I look
a difference and save lives when I look around this room I see that AI will save
around this room I see that AI will save
around this room I see that AI will save your life and that’s true for a hundred
your life and that’s true for a hundred
your life and that’s true for a hundred maybe 200 of you more over time and even
maybe 200 of you more over time and even
maybe 200 of you more over time and even more when we think about our families my
more when we think about our families my
more when we think about our families my final example is from the realm of
final example is from the realm of
final example is from the realm of driving human drivers worried me
driving human drivers worried me
driving human drivers worried me particularly now that myself
particularly now that myself
particularly now that myself ten-year-old is driving regularly he’s
ten-year-old is driving regularly he’s
ten-year-old is driving regularly he’s texting and driving I know this because
texting and driving I know this because
texting and driving I know this because I get the text at least he’s not
I get the text at least he’s not
I get the text at least he’s not drinking and driving although I worried
drinking and driving although I worried
drinking and driving although I worried that some of his classmates are we have
that some of his classmates are we have
that some of his classmates are we have over 30,000 deaths in our highways each
over 30,000 deaths in our highways each
over 30,000 deaths in our highways each year in AI bay safety systems at car in
year in AI bay safety systems at car in
year in AI bay safety systems at car in cars could reduce those substantially a
cars could reduce those substantially a
cars could reduce those substantially a few weeks ago a friend of mine was
few weeks ago a friend of mine was
few weeks ago a friend of mine was jogging in Seattle and he was hit by her
jogging in Seattle and he was hit by her
jogging in Seattle and he was hit by her car the driver was 96 years old we want
car the driver was 96 years old we want
car the driver was 96 years old we want our grandparents our parents and
our grandparents our parents and
our grandparents our parents and ultimately us to be as independent as
ultimately us to be as independent as
ultimately us to be as independent as possible to keep driving
possible to keep driving
possible to keep driving but at the same time we need to keep us
but at the same time we need to keep us
but at the same time we need to keep us and other pedestrians safe well AI base
and other pedestrians safe well AI base
and other pedestrians safe well AI base safety systems and cars can do exactly
safety systems and cars can do exactly
safety systems and cars can do exactly that and remember just as with automatic
that and remember just as with automatic
that and remember just as with automatic transmission or anti-lock brakes
transmission or anti-lock brakes
transmission or anti-lock brakes mechanical driving decisions will be
mechanical driving decisions will be
mechanical driving decisions will be automated but the human is still in
automated but the human is still in
automated but the human is still in charge the human still determines the
charge the human still determines the
charge the human still determines the destination where the car will go it’s
destination where the car will go it’s
destination where the car will go it’s not like a thousand cars are going to
not like a thousand cars are going to
not like a thousand cars are going to band together and try to take over the
band together and try to take over the
band together and try to take over the White House so is my point that AI is
White House so is my point that AI is
White House so is my point that AI is the best thing since sliced bread
the best thing since sliced bread
the best thing since sliced bread no the potential benefits are enormous
no the potential benefits are enormous
no the potential benefits are enormous but I do acknowledge that there are some
but I do acknowledge that there are some
but I do acknowledge that there are some real risks my point is this AI is
real risks my point is this AI is
real risks my point is this AI is neither good nor evil it’s a tool it’s a
neither good nor evil it’s a tool it’s a
neither good nor evil it’s a tool it’s a technology for us to use and to
technology for us to use and to
technology for us to use and to paraphrase Spider Man with great
paraphrase Spider Man with great
paraphrase Spider Man with great technology comes great responsibility so
technology comes great responsibility so
technology comes great responsibility so I invite each and every one of you to
I invite each and every one of you to
I invite each and every one of you to join me in advocating for the
join me in advocating for the
join me in advocating for the responsible use of AI in advocating for
responsible use of AI in advocating for
responsible use of AI in advocating for AI for the common good in using AI to
AI for the common good in using AI to
AI for the common good in using AI to help us tackle problems that we as
help us tackle problems that we as
help us tackle problems that we as humans can’t tackle alone thank you
”
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