hi folks hey welcome to Scott bass I’ve been undertaking research in
I’ve been undertaking research in
I’ve been undertaking research in Antarctica now for nearly 30 years so
Antarctica now for nearly 30 years so
Antarctica now for nearly 30 years so I’ve seen a few changes and perhaps the
I’ve seen a few changes and perhaps the
I’ve seen a few changes and perhaps the most dramatic though are the increasing
most dramatic though are the increasing
most dramatic though are the increasing complexity of the scientific questions
complexity of the scientific questions
complexity of the scientific questions being asked by the scientists themselves
being asked by the scientists themselves
being asked by the scientists themselves and the advances in technology and skill
and the advances in technology and skill
and the advances in technology and skill to answer those questions and indeed the
to answer those questions and indeed the
to answer those questions and indeed the degree of collaboration that’s now
degree of collaboration that’s now
degree of collaboration that’s now required to answer some of those really
required to answer some of those really
required to answer some of those really complex scientific questions my own
complex scientific questions my own
complex scientific questions my own interest in Antarctica began with a
interest in Antarctica began with a
interest in Antarctica began with a fairly rudimentary epiphany as an
fairly rudimentary epiphany as an
fairly rudimentary epiphany as an undergraduate geology major and that was
undergraduate geology major and that was
undergraduate geology major and that was that an ice cube on the bottom of the
that an ice cube on the bottom of the
that an ice cube on the bottom of the world was not going to be very
world was not going to be very
world was not going to be very compatible with a warming planet it had
compatible with a warming planet it had
compatible with a warming planet it had to melt and if it did where did all that
to melt and if it did where did all that
to melt and if it did where did all that water go and it’s a pretty significant
water go and it’s a pretty significant
water go and it’s a pretty significant Ice Cube 26 quadrillion tons that’s 26
Ice Cube 26 quadrillion tons that’s 26
Ice Cube 26 quadrillion tons that’s 26 thousand million million for those of
thousand million million for those of
thousand million million for those of you who are counting the zeroes and
you who are counting the zeroes and
you who are counting the zeroes and that’s enough to raise sea level around
that’s enough to raise sea level around
that’s enough to raise sea level around the globe by as much as 60 meters so I
the globe by as much as 60 meters so I
the globe by as much as 60 meters so I started looking through the geological
started looking through the geological
started looking through the geological record for evidence of past intervals of
record for evidence of past intervals of
record for evidence of past intervals of warmth and higher sea level the journey
warmth and higher sea level the journey
warmth and higher sea level the journey took me around New Zealand to South
took me around New Zealand to South
took me around New Zealand to South America and of course here in Antarctica
America and of course here in Antarctica
America and of course here in Antarctica and turned out not to be a very quick
and turned out not to be a very quick
and turned out not to be a very quick job so I’ve teamed up with a lot of
job so I’ve teamed up with a lot of
job so I’ve teamed up with a lot of people along the way and we’ve unearthed
people along the way and we’ve unearthed
people along the way and we’ve unearthed evidence from beneath Antarctica’s ice
evidence from beneath Antarctica’s ice
evidence from beneath Antarctica’s ice sheets and oceans that indicate past
sheets and oceans that indicate past
sheets and oceans that indicate past intervals of warmth one of the
intervals of warmth one of the
intervals of warmth one of the challenges of working here in Antarctica
challenges of working here in Antarctica
challenges of working here in Antarctica is that evidence is hard to find
is that evidence is hard to find
is that evidence is hard to find it’s either under the ice or under the
it’s either under the ice or under the
it’s either under the ice or under the water around Antarctica but along the
water around Antarctica but along the
water around Antarctica but along the way we’ve unearthed quite a lot about
way we’ve unearthed quite a lot about
way we’ve unearthed quite a lot about this continent it’s ice sheets have
this continent it’s ice sheets have
this continent it’s ice sheets have expanded and retreated on a periodic
expanded and retreated on a periodic
expanded and retreated on a periodic basis as the planet has
basis as the planet has
basis as the planet has and warmed and the ice sheets changed
and warmed and the ice sheets changed
and warmed and the ice sheets changed more dramatically than you might expect
more dramatically than you might expect
more dramatically than you might expect just a few degrees of warming of the
just a few degrees of warming of the
just a few degrees of warming of the planet results in loss of between two
planet results in loss of between two
planet results in loss of between two and twenty percent of Antarctica’s ice
and twenty percent of Antarctica’s ice
and twenty percent of Antarctica’s ice sheets that’s partly because warming of
sheets that’s partly because warming of
sheets that’s partly because warming of the planet is not uniform the poles tend
the planet is not uniform the poles tend
the planet is not uniform the poles tend to warm at more than double the average
to warm at more than double the average
to warm at more than double the average rate and think on this a meter of sea
rate and think on this a meter of sea
rate and think on this a meter of sea level rise comes from only two percent
level rise comes from only two percent
level rise comes from only two percent change in the Antarctic ice sheet in a
change in the Antarctic ice sheet in a
change in the Antarctic ice sheet in a meter of sea level rise displaces a
meter of sea level rise displaces a
meter of sea level rise displaces a hundred million people around the planet
hundred million people around the planet
hundred million people around the planet now when Antarctica’s ice sheets cool
now when Antarctica’s ice sheets cool
now when Antarctica’s ice sheets cool and expand and retreat the ocean follows
and expand and retreat the ocean follows
and expand and retreat the ocean follows suit that’s because Antarctica is
suit that’s because Antarctica is
suit that’s because Antarctica is cooling the ocean in driving ocean
cooling the ocean in driving ocean
cooling the ocean in driving ocean circulation and atmosphere and climate
circulation and atmosphere and climate
circulation and atmosphere and climate follows as well because the temperature
follows as well because the temperature
follows as well because the temperature gradient from the equator to the pole
gradient from the equator to the pole
gradient from the equator to the pole causes atmosphere to reorganize it turns
causes atmosphere to reorganize it turns
causes atmosphere to reorganize it turns out that Antarctic has this huge
out that Antarctic has this huge
out that Antarctic has this huge flywheel that translates just small
flywheel that translates just small
flywheel that translates just small changes in warmth of the planet into
changes in warmth of the planet into
changes in warmth of the planet into significant global changes in
significant global changes in
significant global changes in circulation sea level and climate no
circulation sea level and climate no
circulation sea level and climate no matter how you look at it small changes
matter how you look at it small changes
matter how you look at it small changes in Antarctica have big impact on the
in Antarctica have big impact on the
in Antarctica have big impact on the rest of the planet obviously the ice
rest of the planet obviously the ice
rest of the planet obviously the ice sheets have a great deal of inertia so
sheets have a great deal of inertia so
sheets have a great deal of inertia so you might think that these changes are
you might think that these changes are
you might think that these changes are slow but it turns out from the
slow but it turns out from the
slow but it turns out from the geological evidence not to be the case
geological evidence not to be the case
geological evidence not to be the case as the earth warmed out of the last
as the earth warmed out of the last
as the earth warmed out of the last glaciation between 10,000 and 20,000
glaciation between 10,000 and 20,000
glaciation between 10,000 and 20,000 years ago it did so in a stepwise
years ago it did so in a stepwise
years ago it did so in a stepwise fashion long intervals of relatively
fashion long intervals of relatively
fashion long intervals of relatively stable or slowly changing climate and
stable or slowly changing climate and
stable or slowly changing climate and sea level punctuated by significant
sea level punctuated by significant
sea level punctuated by significant episodes of melt with sea level rising
episodes of melt with sea level rising
episodes of melt with sea level rising by as much as four metres per hundred
by as much as four metres per hundred
by as much as four metres per hundred years in some of those
years in some of those
years in some of those intervals of melt the other thing we’ve
intervals of melt the other thing we’ve
intervals of melt the other thing we’ve learned along the way is that past
learned along the way is that past
learned along the way is that past levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and
levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and
levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and the atmosphere have a huge effect on the
the atmosphere have a huge effect on the
the atmosphere have a huge effect on the planet low levels of atmospheric carbon
planet low levels of atmospheric carbon
planet low levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide result in relatively stable ice
dioxide result in relatively stable ice
dioxide result in relatively stable ice sheets high levels of atmospheric carbon
sheets high levels of atmospheric carbon
sheets high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide less stable ice sheets the
dioxide less stable ice sheets the
dioxide less stable ice sheets the Antarctic ice sheets have varied between
Antarctic ice sheets have varied between
Antarctic ice sheets have varied between 200 and 300 parts per million the ice
200 and 300 parts per million the ice
200 and 300 parts per million the ice sheets have grown and retreated on a
sheets have grown and retreated on a
sheets have grown and retreated on a periodic basis but 400 parts per million
periodic basis but 400 parts per million
periodic basis but 400 parts per million seems to be a critical threshold above
seems to be a critical threshold above
seems to be a critical threshold above that the geological record reveals
that the geological record reveals
that the geological record reveals significant loss in the Antarctic Ice
significant loss in the Antarctic Ice
significant loss in the Antarctic Ice Sheet and sea level rise as much as 10
Sheet and sea level rise as much as 10
Sheet and sea level rise as much as 10 metres and above 500 parts per million
metres and above 500 parts per million
metres and above 500 parts per million as much as 20 meters rise in global sea
as much as 20 meters rise in global sea
as much as 20 meters rise in global sea level so as the earth passed through 400
level so as the earth passed through 400
level so as the earth passed through 400 parts per million atmospheric carbon
parts per million atmospheric carbon
parts per million atmospheric carbon dioxide a year or so ago at a rate not
dioxide a year or so ago at a rate not
dioxide a year or so ago at a rate not previously seen in the geological record
previously seen in the geological record
previously seen in the geological record we were left wondering how long would it
we were left wondering how long would it
we were left wondering how long would it take for Antarctica and its ice sheets
take for Antarctica and its ice sheets
take for Antarctica and its ice sheets to catch up the risk here is not in what
to catch up the risk here is not in what
to catch up the risk here is not in what we know it’s in what we don’t know the
we know it’s in what we don’t know the
we know it’s in what we don’t know the knowledge gap leads to uncertainty and
knowledge gap leads to uncertainty and
knowledge gap leads to uncertainty and that uncertainty makes it difficult for
that uncertainty makes it difficult for
that uncertainty makes it difficult for us to develop plans or take action it’s
us to develop plans or take action it’s
us to develop plans or take action it’s further exacerbated by the potential
further exacerbated by the potential
further exacerbated by the potential enormity of Antarctic as impact on the
enormity of Antarctic as impact on the
enormity of Antarctic as impact on the globe but challenges only seem enormous
globe but challenges only seem enormous
globe but challenges only seem enormous when we don’t know the pathway through
when we don’t know the pathway through
when we don’t know the pathway through mountains our unscalable until someone
mountains our unscalable until someone
mountains our unscalable until someone works out how to get to the top so what
works out how to get to the top so what
works out how to get to the top so what we’re talking about here is the unknown
we’re talking about here is the unknown
we’re talking about here is the unknown pathway the geological record has a
pathway the geological record has a
pathway the geological record has a fairly low resolution we we have a
fairly low resolution we we have a
fairly low resolution we we have a pretty good
pretty good
pretty good where the system will come into
where the system will come into
where the system will come into equilibrium as the planet warms what we
equilibrium as the planet warms what we
equilibrium as the planet warms what we don’t know is the pathway to get there
don’t know is the pathway to get there
don’t know is the pathway to get there the steps the thresholds the changes in
the steps the thresholds the changes in
the steps the thresholds the changes in right on our way to a warming planet
right on our way to a warming planet
right on our way to a warming planet now obviously solving this problem can
now obviously solving this problem can
now obviously solving this problem can be done pretty easily if we develop a
be done pretty easily if we develop a
be done pretty easily if we develop a comprehensive understanding of the ocean
comprehensive understanding of the ocean
comprehensive understanding of the ocean ice climate system here in Antarctica
ice climate system here in Antarctica
ice climate system here in Antarctica but we can make significant progress
but we can make significant progress
but we can make significant progress around the edges where different parts
around the edges where different parts
around the edges where different parts of the system come into contact we’re
of the system come into contact we’re
of the system come into contact we’re Antarctica connects with the southern
Antarctica connects with the southern
Antarctica connects with the southern ocean where the ocean connects with the
ocean where the ocean connects with the
ocean where the ocean connects with the ice and where the atmosphere connects
ice and where the atmosphere connects
ice and where the atmosphere connects with the ocean and the ice at the edges
with the ocean and the ice at the edges
with the ocean and the ice at the edges we can learn about how one part of the
we can learn about how one part of the
we can learn about how one part of the system drives change in another part of
system drives change in another part of
system drives change in another part of the system at the edges we can learn how
the system at the edges we can learn how
the system at the edges we can learn how indicative change in one part of the
indicative change in one part of the
indicative change in one part of the system might be of the system of a whole
system might be of the system of a whole
system might be of the system of a whole it’s pretty easy to fall into the trap
it’s pretty easy to fall into the trap
it’s pretty easy to fall into the trap of observable change in one part of the
of observable change in one part of the
of observable change in one part of the system driving our whole understanding
system driving our whole understanding
system driving our whole understanding of the whole system
of the whole system
of the whole system take for example growing ice sea ice
take for example growing ice sea ice
take for example growing ice sea ice around Antarctica it may well indicate a
around Antarctica it may well indicate a
around Antarctica it may well indicate a calling continent but not if the source
calling continent but not if the source
calling continent but not if the source of the sea ice is the melting fresh
of the sea ice is the melting fresh
of the sea ice is the melting fresh water from beneath
water from beneath
water from beneath Antarctica’s ice shelves I’ve undertaken
Antarctica’s ice shelves I’ve undertaken
Antarctica’s ice shelves I’ve undertaken quite a lot of work in the geological
quite a lot of work in the geological
quite a lot of work in the geological record using sediment cores and the
record using sediment cores and the
record using sediment cores and the whole aim of that has been about trying
whole aim of that has been about trying
whole aim of that has been about trying to understand the rates of change and
to understand the rates of change and
to understand the rates of change and trying to bring down their resolution of
trying to bring down their resolution of
trying to bring down their resolution of understanding of the geological record
understanding of the geological record
understanding of the geological record it turns out to be a pretty complex
it turns out to be a pretty complex
it turns out to be a pretty complex system but one thing I’ve learned from
system but one thing I’ve learned from
system but one thing I’ve learned from my geological training and that is that
my geological training and that is that
my geological training and that is that past life is indicative of ocean and
past life is indicative of ocean and
past life is indicative of ocean and climate condition change in environment
climate condition change in environment
climate condition change in environment changes the life now on long timescales
changes the life now on long timescales
changes the life now on long timescales species come and go but on shorter time
species come and go but on shorter time
species come and go but on shorter time scales populations move and population
scales populations move and population
scales populations move and population health changes the life integrates
health changes the life integrates
health changes the life integrates across the environment
across the environment
across the environment and the life integrates through time so
and the life integrates through time so
and the life integrates through time so life is indicative of trend rather than
life is indicative of trend rather than
life is indicative of trend rather than variability in the system what do I mean
variability in the system what do I mean
variability in the system what do I mean by trend and variability
by trend and variability
by trend and variability well variability is the backwards and
well variability is the backwards and
well variability is the backwards and forwards the natural backwards and
forwards the natural backwards and
forwards the natural backwards and forwards in the system about an average
forwards in the system about an average
forwards in the system about an average state and trend is change in that
state and trend is change in that
state and trend is change in that average state if we pick up well it
average state if we pick up well it
average state if we pick up well it takes a lot to measure the difference
takes a lot to measure the difference
takes a lot to measure the difference between Ted trend and variability a lot
between Ted trend and variability a lot
between Ted trend and variability a lot of measurements through quite a period
of measurements through quite a period
of measurements through quite a period of time if we pick up a change in trend
of time if we pick up a change in trend
of time if we pick up a change in trend then we need to be able to attribute it
then we need to be able to attribute it
then we need to be able to attribute it to a cause that way we can work out
to a cause that way we can work out
to a cause that way we can work out what’s driving the system and the change
what’s driving the system and the change
what’s driving the system and the change now if we take a whole of ecosystem
now if we take a whole of ecosystem
now if we take a whole of ecosystem approach we can do that and that’s
approach we can do that and that’s
approach we can do that and that’s because species in one part of the
because species in one part of the
because species in one part of the ecosystem respond to different parts of
ecosystem respond to different parts of
ecosystem respond to different parts of the environment that way you can work
the environment that way you can work
the environment that way you can work out what’s driving change in your
out what’s driving change in your
out what’s driving change in your ecosystem now one thing I’m working on
ecosystem now one thing I’m working on
ecosystem now one thing I’m working on at the moment is trying to piece
at the moment is trying to piece
at the moment is trying to piece together the modern change in Antarctica
together the modern change in Antarctica
together the modern change in Antarctica from a series of long-term ecological
from a series of long-term ecological
from a series of long-term ecological research and monitoring points around
research and monitoring points around
research and monitoring points around Antarctica to try and pick up that
Antarctica to try and pick up that
Antarctica to try and pick up that modern change and one place we’re
modern change and one place we’re
modern change and one place we’re interested in is Cape adir some 700
interested in is Cape adir some 700
interested in is Cape adir some 700 kilometers north of here that’s got base
kilometers north of here that’s got base
kilometers north of here that’s got base it’s pretty close to the Southern Ocean
it’s pretty close to the Southern Ocean
it’s pretty close to the Southern Ocean at the northern edge of the Ross Sea
at the northern edge of the Ross Sea
at the northern edge of the Ross Sea it’s also home to the largest Adelie
it’s also home to the largest Adelie
it’s also home to the largest Adelie penguin rookery in Antarctica somewhere
penguin rookery in Antarctica somewhere
penguin rookery in Antarctica somewhere upwards of a million birds and offshore
upwards of a million birds and offshore
upwards of a million birds and offshore there are kelp forests not seen further
there are kelp forests not seen further
there are kelp forests not seen further south here in the Ross Sea and at first
south here in the Ross Sea and at first
south here in the Ross Sea and at first glance the water column seems to be an
glance the water column seems to be an
glance the water column seems to be an extension of the southern ocean on to
extension of the southern ocean on to
extension of the southern ocean on to the Antarctic shelf so it’s a great spot
the Antarctic shelf so it’s a great spot
the Antarctic shelf so it’s a great spot to pick up the influence of the Southern
to pick up the influence of the Southern
to pick up the influence of the Southern Ocean and
Ocean and
Ocean and Antarctica it’s also one of the few
Antarctica it’s also one of the few
Antarctica it’s also one of the few points in mainland Antarctica that
points in mainland Antarctica that
points in mainland Antarctica that extend into the newly agreed raw sea
extend into the newly agreed raw sea
extend into the newly agreed raw sea marine protected area so again another
marine protected area so again another
marine protected area so again another spot to get some baseline understanding
spot to get some baseline understanding
spot to get some baseline understanding of ecosystem health it’s a difficult
of ecosystem health it’s a difficult
of ecosystem health it’s a difficult place to get to no one will argue with
place to get to no one will argue with
place to get to no one will argue with that
that
that but it’s an important place to
but it’s an important place to
but it’s an important place to understand the impact of warming in the
understand the impact of warming in the
understand the impact of warming in the southern ocean into Antarctica another
southern ocean into Antarctica another
southern ocean into Antarctica another place that’s important to look at is the
place that’s important to look at is the
place that’s important to look at is the sub-antarctic islands around the
sub-antarctic islands around the
sub-antarctic islands around the northern perimeter of the Antarctic
northern perimeter of the Antarctic
northern perimeter of the Antarctic circumpolar current with their own
circumpolar current with their own
circumpolar current with their own iconic species that are also responding
iconic species that are also responding
iconic species that are also responding to environmental but change but in this
to environmental but change but in this
to environmental but change but in this case propagating north out of Antarctica
case propagating north out of Antarctica
case propagating north out of Antarctica to the rest of the world so can we
to the rest of the world so can we
to the rest of the world so can we actually do anything about this
actually do anything about this
actually do anything about this obviously we need to solve this
obviously we need to solve this
obviously we need to solve this knowledge gap to be able to make
knowledge gap to be able to make
knowledge gap to be able to make informed decisions and do something more
informed decisions and do something more
informed decisions and do something more about our future but you know we can
about our future but you know we can
about our future but you know we can actually act on what we already know we
actually act on what we already know we
actually act on what we already know we know that the planet is warming year
know that the planet is warming year
know that the planet is warming year upon year we know that atmospheric
upon year we know that atmospheric
upon year we know that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and other
carbon dioxide levels and other
carbon dioxide levels and other greenhouse gases have contributed to
greenhouse gases have contributed to
greenhouse gases have contributed to that warming over the past few years
that warming over the past few years
that warming over the past few years atmospheric co2 is increasing it 1/2 to
atmospheric co2 is increasing it 1/2 to
atmospheric co2 is increasing it 1/2 to 1% per annum so surely it’s possible to
1% per annum so surely it’s possible to
1% per annum so surely it’s possible to turn that around 1/2 to 1% and we can
turn that around 1/2 to 1% and we can
turn that around 1/2 to 1% and we can all do something about that it’s going
all do something about that it’s going
all do something about that it’s going to be made a lot easier if we understand
to be made a lot easier if we understand
to be made a lot easier if we understand more about our own carbon footprint what
more about our own carbon footprint what
more about our own carbon footprint what it is that we use what it is that we’re
it is that we use what it is that we’re
it is that we use what it is that we’re buying that contributes to this increase
buying that contributes to this increase
buying that contributes to this increase in carbon dioxide that’s what the carbon
in carbon dioxide that’s what the carbon
in carbon dioxide that’s what the carbon trading system was all about trying to
trading system was all about trying to
trading system was all about trying to work out the origin of our carbon and
work out the origin of our carbon and
work out the origin of our carbon and where it ended up in the atmosphere but
where it ended up in the atmosphere but
where it ended up in the atmosphere but the reality is we all need to do some
the reality is we all need to do some
the reality is we all need to do some saving that’s what the discussion in
saving that’s what the discussion in
saving that’s what the discussion in Paris was about so we’re talking about
Paris was about so we’re talking about
Paris was about so we’re talking about it we’re just not quite doing it yet
it we’re just not quite doing it yet
it we’re just not quite doing it yet there’s a bit of a standoff here between
there’s a bit of a standoff here between
there’s a bit of a standoff here between governments and individuals as
governments and individuals as
governments and individuals as individuals we kind of rely on
individuals we kind of rely on
individuals we kind of rely on government to have these big questions
government to have these big questions
government to have these big questions sorted out in a plan in hand but the
sorted out in a plan in hand but the
sorted out in a plan in hand but the government of the day is concerned with
government of the day is concerned with
government of the day is concerned with the issues of the individuals today
the issues of the individuals today
the issues of the individuals today that’s why they get elected and that’s
that’s why they get elected and that’s
that’s why they get elected and that’s why they stay elected so we’re waiting
why they stay elected so we’re waiting
why they stay elected so we’re waiting for government and they’re waiting for
for government and they’re waiting for
for government and they’re waiting for us
us
us let’s break the cycle that’s what the
let’s break the cycle that’s what the
let’s break the cycle that’s what the New Zealand enteric Research Institute
New Zealand enteric Research Institute
New Zealand enteric Research Institute is all about brokering a public-private
is all about brokering a public-private
is all about brokering a public-private partnership to undertake research on
partnership to undertake research on
partnership to undertake research on some of these more challenging questions
some of these more challenging questions
some of these more challenging questions that transcend geopolitical boundaries
that transcend geopolitical boundaries
that transcend geopolitical boundaries that’s the problem with climate change
that’s the problem with climate change
that’s the problem with climate change no one country is going to solve it on
no one country is going to solve it on
no one country is going to solve it on its own it’s going to take each and
its own it’s going to take each and
its own it’s going to take each and every one of us to make a difference
every one of us to make a difference
every one of us to make a difference together thank you
together thank you
together thank you you
”
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