[Applause] [Music]
[Music]
[Music] so a few weeks ago my boyfriend Igor and
so a few weeks ago my boyfriend Igor and
so a few weeks ago my boyfriend Igor and I we were hanging out on the sofa and he
I we were hanging out on the sofa and he
I we were hanging out on the sofa and he turns to me and says Nev
turns to me and says Nev
turns to me and says Nev what do you think the likelihood is that
what do you think the likelihood is that
what do you think the likelihood is that we’ll still be together in 3 years time
so naturally we both took a pen and
so naturally we both took a pen and paper and wrote down our three-year
paper and wrote down our three-year
paper and wrote down our three-year predictions and through in our 1 year
predictions and through in our 1 year
predictions and through in our 1 year and 10 year ones for good measure and
and 10 year ones for good measure and
and 10 year ones for good measure and these are the results fortunately we are
these are the results fortunately we are
these are the results fortunately we are pretty much aligned and because we’re
pretty much aligned and because we’re
pretty much aligned and because we’re both professional poker players we’re
both professional poker players we’re
both professional poker players we’re very much used to thinking about all
very much used to thinking about all
very much used to thinking about all kinds of things in terms of
kinds of things in terms of
kinds of things in terms of probabilities even potentially emotional
probabilities even potentially emotional
probabilities even potentially emotional topics like this one well I certainly
topics like this one well I certainly
topics like this one well I certainly wasn’t always rational around
wasn’t always rational around
wasn’t always rational around probabilities for example the very first
probabilities for example the very first
probabilities for example the very first time I played poker it was 2005 and I
time I played poker it was 2005 and I
time I played poker it was 2005 and I just graduated University from here in
just graduated University from here in
just graduated University from here in Manchester and I didn’t really know what
Manchester and I didn’t really know what
Manchester and I didn’t really know what I wanted to do with my life yet so
I wanted to do with my life yet so
I wanted to do with my life yet so naturally I started applying for game
naturally I started applying for game
naturally I started applying for game shows and if I how I got on yeah first I
shows and if I how I got on yeah first I
shows and if I how I got on yeah first I got on turned out to be a reality show
got on turned out to be a reality show
got on turned out to be a reality show that took five beginners and taught them
that took five beginners and taught them
that took five beginners and taught them how to play poker and well I was one of
how to play poker and well I was one of
how to play poker and well I was one of those beginners and then we would
those beginners and then we would
those beginners and then we would compete for a winner-take-all prize of
compete for a winner-take-all prize of
compete for a winner-take-all prize of $100,000
$100,000
$100,000 specially for a graduate with a ton of
specially for a graduate with a ton of
specially for a graduate with a ton of debt so in one of the first games we
debt so in one of the first games we
debt so in one of the first games we start playing and I get dealt two aces
start playing and I get dealt two aces
start playing and I get dealt two aces which are the best starting hand in
which are the best starting hand in
which are the best starting hand in poker and before I knew it I got on all
poker and before I knew it I got on all
poker and before I knew it I got on all my chips in the middle and then my
my chips in the middle and then my
my chips in the middle and then my opponent they get really lucky and it’s
opponent they get really lucky and it’s
opponent they get really lucky and it’s a miracle quad and I’m out of the game
a miracle quad and I’m out of the game
a miracle quad and I’m out of the game but it’s fine because I handle it with a
but it’s fine because I handle it with a
but it’s fine because I handle it with a calm stoic dignity
also I wish no in fact I love having a
also I wish no in fact I love having a complete meltdown to cry at the tables
complete meltdown to cry at the tables
complete meltdown to cry at the tables and embarrass myself on national TV and
and embarrass myself on national TV and
and embarrass myself on national TV and why did I do that well I did it because
why did I do that well I did it because
why did I do that well I did it because I was shocked even though I’ve been told
I was shocked even though I’ve been told
I was shocked even though I’ve been told to expect that aces will lose around 20%
to expect that aces will lose around 20%
to expect that aces will lose around 20% of the time my internal dial
of the time my internal dial
of the time my internal dial very much didn’t feel like a 20% of
very much didn’t feel like a 20% of
very much didn’t feel like a 20% of could actually happen
so fortunately I’ve gotten my act
so fortunately I’ve gotten my act together a bit more since then and
together a bit more since then and
together a bit more since then and that’s largely because well poker
that’s largely because well poker
that’s largely because well poker teaches you to get used to bad luck if
teaches you to get used to bad luck if
teaches you to get used to bad luck if you play the game often enough you’ll
you play the game often enough you’ll
you play the game often enough you’ll expect to see maybe hundreds of
expect to see maybe hundreds of
expect to see maybe hundreds of thousands of hands over a given year and
thousands of hands over a given year and
thousands of hands over a given year and so you’ll see all these crazy wondrous
so you’ll see all these crazy wondrous
so you’ll see all these crazy wondrous centers and freak events happen with the
centers and freak events happen with the
centers and freak events happen with the cards over and over
cards over and over
cards over and over that’s because probabilities compound
that’s because probabilities compound
that’s because probabilities compound while the likelihood of one individually
while the likelihood of one individually
while the likelihood of one individually unlucky event happening in to us is
unlucky event happening in to us is
unlucky event happening in to us is small in a given year like getting our
small in a given year like getting our
small in a given year like getting our phone stolen or being made redundant
phone stolen or being made redundant
phone stolen or being made redundant having one of our five closest relatives
having one of our five closest relatives
having one of our five closest relatives die if you start thinking about all the
die if you start thinking about all the
die if you start thinking about all the events that you could consider to be
events that you could consider to be
events that you could consider to be unlucky then actually the chances build
unlucky then actually the chances build
unlucky then actually the chances build up and up until it’s quite likely that
up and up until it’s quite likely that
up and up until it’s quite likely that one of them happens and while this might
one of them happens and while this might
one of them happens and while this might seem kind of depressing I found that
seem kind of depressing I found that
seem kind of depressing I found that remembering this mathematical fact has
remembering this mathematical fact has
remembering this mathematical fact has helped me manage my expectations better
helped me manage my expectations better
helped me manage my expectations better because then I’m less shocked and when
because then I’m less shocked and when
because then I’m less shocked and when we’re less shocked then we’re better
we’re less shocked then we’re better
we’re less shocked then we’re better able to reason through a tough situation
able to reason through a tough situation
able to reason through a tough situation and not spend so much of our time
and not spend so much of our time
and not spend so much of our time thinking about negative unhelpful
thinking about negative unhelpful
thinking about negative unhelpful thoughts like why me why am I so unlucky
thoughts like why me why am I so unlucky
thoughts like why me why am I so unlucky now I’m not suggesting you’ll go out and
now I’m not suggesting you’ll go out and
now I’m not suggesting you’ll go out and learn to play poker to get used to bad
learn to play poker to get used to bad
learn to play poker to get used to bad luck but it is important to remember to
luck but it is important to remember to
luck but it is important to remember to look at life through a probabilistic
look at life through a probabilistic
look at life through a probabilistic lens because as incredible physicist
lens because as incredible physicist
lens because as incredible physicist Richard Feynman once said nature permits
Richard Feynman once said nature permits
Richard Feynman once said nature permits us only to calculate probabilities and
us only to calculate probabilities and
us only to calculate probabilities and yet science does not collapse
yet science does not collapse
yet science does not collapse and what he means by this is that the
and what he means by this is that the
and what he means by this is that the the world around us kind of like a card
the world around us kind of like a card
the world around us kind of like a card game is ultimately governed by the laws
game is ultimately governed by the laws
game is ultimately governed by the laws of chance and statistics even even the
of chance and statistics even even the
of chance and statistics even even the fundamental nature of matter that
fundamental nature of matter that
fundamental nature of matter that particles whizzing around in our bodies
particles whizzing around in our bodies
particles whizzing around in our bodies in everything in this room appeared to
in everything in this room appeared to
in everything in this room appeared to behave in terms of probabilities and our
behave in terms of probabilities and our
behave in terms of probabilities and our universe is just full of all this
universe is just full of all this
universe is just full of all this complexity and yet through science for
complexity and yet through science for
complexity and yet through science for the process of observation and evidence
the process of observation and evidence
the process of observation and evidence and reason we can learn to make
and reason we can learn to make
and reason we can learn to make remarkably accurate predictions by using
remarkably accurate predictions by using
remarkably accurate predictions by using these probabilities but we are not all
these probabilities but we are not all
these probabilities but we are not all perfect scientists in fact far from it
perfect scientists in fact far from it
perfect scientists in fact far from it we make many mistakes in how we think
we make many mistakes in how we think
we make many mistakes in how we think and speak around problem
and speak around problem
and speak around problem and it’s some of these mistakes that I
and it’s some of these mistakes that I
and it’s some of these mistakes that I want to talk to you guys about today so
want to talk to you guys about today so
want to talk to you guys about today so the first of these is our tendency to
the first of these is our tendency to
the first of these is our tendency to assume that something is a certainty
assume that something is a certainty
assume that something is a certainty when it’s not in other words to assign a
when it’s not in other words to assign a
when it’s not in other words to assign a hundred percent probability to something
hundred percent probability to something
hundred percent probability to something but hundred assem probabilities are
but hundred assem probabilities are
but hundred assem probabilities are extremely extremely rare and this is
extremely extremely rare and this is
extremely extremely rare and this is known as the overconfidence bias where
known as the overconfidence bias where
known as the overconfidence bias where we tend to be over confident in the
we tend to be over confident in the
we tend to be over confident in the strength of our beliefs and convictions
strength of our beliefs and convictions
strength of our beliefs and convictions and this can lead us to a cardinal sin
and this can lead us to a cardinal sin
and this can lead us to a cardinal sin gambling without even realizing that
gambling without even realizing that
gambling without even realizing that we’re gambling and perhaps the best
we’re gambling and perhaps the best
we’re gambling and perhaps the best example of this is the 2008 financial
example of this is the 2008 financial
example of this is the 2008 financial crisis which was largely contributed to
crisis which was largely contributed to
crisis which was largely contributed to by the assumption that the house prices
by the assumption that the house prices
by the assumption that the house prices across the entirety of the u.s. couldn’t
across the entirety of the u.s. couldn’t
across the entirety of the u.s. couldn’t all go down at the same time but they
all go down at the same time but they
all go down at the same time but they could and they did and it was that that
could and they did and it was that that
could and they did and it was that that kick-started the Cheney action that
kick-started the Cheney action that
kick-started the Cheney action that created the largest economic disaster
created the largest economic disaster
created the largest economic disaster since the Great Depression
since the Great Depression
since the Great Depression and it’s because we knew of this bias
and it’s because we knew of this bias
and it’s because we knew of this bias the Igor and I you decided to ask each
the Igor and I you decided to ask each
the Igor and I you decided to ask each other that all the question about
other that all the question about
other that all the question about whether we think will be to get all the
whether we think will be to get all the
whether we think will be to get all the likelihood that we’ll be together in
likelihood that we’ll be together in
likelihood that we’ll be together in three years time because we’re now at
three years time because we’re now at
three years time because we’re now at that critical stage where we’re thinking
that critical stage where we’re thinking
that critical stage where we’re thinking about things like marriage and buying a
about things like marriage and buying a
about things like marriage and buying a house together or maybe moving country
house together or maybe moving country
house together or maybe moving country and well imagine if we went full steam
and well imagine if we went full steam
and well imagine if we went full steam ahead assuming we’re a hundred percent
ahead assuming we’re a hundred percent
ahead assuming we’re a hundred percent to be together but maybe your percentage
to be together but maybe your percentage
to be together but maybe your percentage is actually only sixty percent so it’s
is actually only sixty percent so it’s
is actually only sixty percent so it’s crucially important so take a moment a
crucially important so take a moment a
crucially important so take a moment a question what is your fit you think
question what is your fit you think
question what is your fit you think you’re certain about especially if it’s
you’re certain about especially if it’s
you’re certain about especially if it’s to do with your relationships then well
to do with your relationships then well
to do with your relationships then well we have to have these frank and
we have to have these frank and
we have to have these frank and quantified discussions from time to time
quantified discussions from time to time
quantified discussions from time to time with our loved ones about things that
with our loved ones about things that
with our loved ones about things that all these potential worst cases I like
all these potential worst cases I like
all these potential worst cases I like to think of it as taking an insurance
to think of it as taking an insurance
to think of it as taking an insurance policy out on your emotions where you
policy out on your emotions where you
policy out on your emotions where you you pay the the awkward premium up front
you pay the the awkward premium up front
you pay the the awkward premium up front but you’re then better safeguarded
but you’re then better safeguarded
but you’re then better safeguarded should the worst case happen and another
should the worst case happen and another
should the worst case happen and another mistake returned today make is we tend
mistake returned today make is we tend
mistake returned today make is we tend to treat near certainties to simile to
to treat near certainties to simile to
to treat near certainties to simile to one another so if you look at these two
one another so if you look at these two
one another so if you look at these two percentages they look kinda the same
percentages they look kinda the same
percentages they look kinda the same right but chilly there’s a huge
right but chilly there’s a huge
right but chilly there’s a huge difference between the two for example
difference between the two for example
difference between the two for example if all the nuclear reactors in the world
if all the nuclear reactors in the world
if all the nuclear reactors in the world had a safety rating of a instead of B
had a safety rating of a instead of B
had a safety rating of a instead of B and instead of us having a 50/50 chance
and instead of us having a 50/50 chance
and instead of us having a 50/50 chance of some kind of nuclear accident every
of some kind of nuclear accident every
of some kind of nuclear accident every fifteen years we’d expect to have one
fifteen years we’d expect to have one
fifteen years we’d expect to have one every 1.5 years
every 1.5 years
every 1.5 years now would obviously be a huge huge
now would obviously be a huge huge
now would obviously be a huge huge problem fortunately nuclear powers safer
problem fortunately nuclear powers safer
problem fortunately nuclear powers safer than both of these but this this this
than both of these but this this this
than both of these but this this this thing that we do where we we tend to
thing that we do where we we tend to
thing that we do where we we tend to treat these fringe fringe cases a little
treat these fringe fringe cases a little
treat these fringe fringe cases a little bit too similarly can lead us to another
bit too similarly can lead us to another
bit too similarly can lead us to another sin and that’s gambling for sakes we
sin and that’s gambling for sakes we
sin and that’s gambling for sakes we can’t afford certainly something I’ve
can’t afford certainly something I’ve
can’t afford certainly something I’ve seen a lot of in poker and an example of
seen a lot of in poker and an example of
seen a lot of in poker and an example of this is skiing when I was a kid went
this is skiing when I was a kid went
this is skiing when I was a kid went skiing
skiing
skiing we never wore helmets this was back in
we never wore helmets this was back in
we never wore helmets this was back in the 90s and they just weren’t even
the 90s and they just weren’t even
the 90s and they just weren’t even offered to us and I wasn’t because
offered to us and I wasn’t because
offered to us and I wasn’t because helmets were super expensive or anything
helmets were super expensive or anything
helmets were super expensive or anything it’s just more because well no one
it’s just more because well no one
it’s just more because well no one really thought through these very remote
really thought through these very remote
really thought through these very remote but potentially worst-case disasters of
but potentially worst-case disasters of
but potentially worst-case disasters of getting your head in the slow and what
getting your head in the slow and what
getting your head in the slow and what could actually happen but nowadays of
could actually happen but nowadays of
could actually happen but nowadays of course we know better and it makes you
course we know better and it makes you
course we know better and it makes you wonder what what are other things in
wonder what what are other things in
wonder what what are other things in life that could be a helmet worth
life that could be a helmet worth
life that could be a helmet worth wearing maybe it’s just making sure we
wearing maybe it’s just making sure we
wearing maybe it’s just making sure we go for those regular cancer screenings
go for those regular cancer screenings
go for those regular cancer screenings or simply putting a bath mat down in our
or simply putting a bath mat down in our
or simply putting a bath mat down in our shower well just make sure you don’t eat
shower well just make sure you don’t eat
shower well just make sure you don’t eat that piece of pizza while you’re driving
that piece of pizza while you’re driving
that piece of pizza while you’re driving have it when you get home and doesn’t we
have it when you get home and doesn’t we
have it when you get home and doesn’t we tend to oversimplify how we think about
tend to oversimplify how we think about
tend to oversimplify how we think about probabilities we can let that slip into
probabilities we can let that slip into
probabilities we can let that slip into our language too for example you always
our language too for example you always
our language too for example you always make us late because you don’t give me
make us late because you don’t give me
make us late because you don’t give me enough time to get ready
enough time to get ready
enough time to get ready oh yeah that’s because you’re always on
oh yeah that’s because you’re always on
oh yeah that’s because you’re always on the phone with your friend well that’s
the phone with your friend well that’s
the phone with your friend well that’s because you just never actually spend
because you just never actually spend
because you just never actually spend any time listening to me well that’s
any time listening to me well that’s
any time listening to me well that’s because you always precise me that’s
because you always precise me that’s
because you always precise me that’s because you never get anything right
because you never get anything right
because you never get anything right these conversations they they can
these conversations they they can
these conversations they they can escalate somewhat and that’s because
escalate somewhat and that’s because
escalate somewhat and that’s because we’re speaking these at absolutes we’re
we’re speaking these at absolutes we’re
we’re speaking these at absolutes we’re trying out these always is in these
trying out these always is in these
trying out these always is in these Nevers and they’re very
Nevers and they’re very
Nevers and they’re very counterproductive if you say to someone
counterproductive if you say to someone
counterproductive if you say to someone you you never take any time for me
you you never take any time for me
you you never take any time for me you’re naturally saying they have never
you’re naturally saying they have never
you’re naturally saying they have never spent any effort on you and no one likes
spent any effort on you and no one likes
spent any effort on you and no one likes being accused of something that just
being accused of something that just
being accused of something that just clearly isn’t true so then they’ll
clearly isn’t true so then they’ll
clearly isn’t true so then they’ll become all defensive and so they’ll take
become all defensive and so they’ll take
become all defensive and so they’ll take the easy route out of questioning the
the easy route out of questioning the
the easy route out of questioning the the accuracy of your statement instead
the accuracy of your statement instead
the accuracy of your statement instead of actually taking the time to discuss
of actually taking the time to discuss
of actually taking the time to discuss the change change you want when we do
the change change you want when we do
the change change you want when we do finally try and speak probabilistically
finally try and speak probabilistically
finally try and speak probabilistically in our languages in our language we’re
in our languages in our language we’re
in our languages in our language we’re really bad at that as well take for
really bad at that as well take for
really bad at that as well take for example the
example the
example the raise a fair chance if I was to say to
raise a fair chance if I was to say to
raise a fair chance if I was to say to you there’s a fair chance of rain
you there’s a fair chance of rain
you there’s a fair chance of rain tonight what’s the first number that
tonight what’s the first number that
tonight what’s the first number that pops into your head
pops into your head
pops into your head well I asked this same question on
well I asked this same question on
well I asked this same question on Twitter and I got around 300 responses
Twitter and I got around 300 responses
Twitter and I got around 300 responses and this was the range of answers huge I
and this was the range of answers huge I
and this was the range of answers huge I got answers from everywhere from 18% all
got answers from everywhere from 18% all
got answers from everywhere from 18% all the way up to 90% and yet back in 1961
the way up to 90% and yet back in 1961
the way up to 90% and yet back in 1961 the exact words fair chance of success
the exact words fair chance of success
the exact words fair chance of success weather year the words used by the Joint
weather year the words used by the Joint
weather year the words used by the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Chiefs of Staff
Chiefs of Staff when briefing President Kennedy about
when briefing President Kennedy about
when briefing President Kennedy about the their estimations of a success of an
the their estimations of a success of an
the their estimations of a success of an invasion of Cuba they had met with
invasion of Cuba they had met with
invasion of Cuba they had met with military experts and they reckoned it
military experts and they reckoned it
military experts and they reckoned it there was Rankin three-to-one against
there was Rankin three-to-one against
there was Rankin three-to-one against chance so in other words only a 25%
chance so in other words only a 25%
chance so in other words only a 25% chance of success if they were just
chance of success if they were just
chance of success if they were just saying that to Kennedy the staff told
saying that to Kennedy the staff told
saying that to Kennedy the staff told him there’s a fair chance in his
him there’s a fair chance in his
him there’s a fair chance in his interpretation of that was
interpretation of that was
interpretation of that was understandably more positive well it’s
understandably more positive well it’s
understandably more positive well it’s not certain from history if that was
not certain from history if that was
not certain from history if that was being exactly it some of the deciding
being exactly it some of the deciding
being exactly it some of the deciding factor we do know that the u.s. soon
factor we do know that the u.s. soon
factor we do know that the u.s. soon launched after the the Bay of Pigs
launched after the the Bay of Pigs
launched after the the Bay of Pigs invasion which was a complete
invasion which was a complete
invasion which was a complete catastrophe that took the world one step
catastrophe that took the world one step
catastrophe that took the world one step closer to nuclear war so if this vague
closer to nuclear war so if this vague
closer to nuclear war so if this vague unquantified language can cause blunders
unquantified language can cause blunders
unquantified language can cause blunders like that at the highest levels of
like that at the highest levels of
like that at the highest levels of office imagine the frequency of
office imagine the frequency of
office imagine the frequency of miscommunications we must all be making
miscommunications we must all be making
miscommunications we must all be making in our daily lives we expect that our
in our daily lives we expect that our
in our daily lives we expect that our products will launch within the next
products will launch within the next
products will launch within the next three months okay she’ll probably be
three months okay she’ll probably be
three months okay she’ll probably be home for dinner
home for dinner
home for dinner so we’ve all been in trouble saying
so we’ve all been in trouble saying
so we’ve all been in trouble saying something like that and that’s because
something like that and that’s because
something like that and that’s because we all have very different
we all have very different
we all have very different interpretations of these vague
interpretations of these vague
interpretations of these vague probabilistic words words like probably
probabilistic words words like probably
probabilistic words words like probably or frequently or likely and again Iran
or frequently or likely and again Iran
or frequently or likely and again Iran similar polls on Twitter and this was
similar polls on Twitter and this was
similar polls on Twitter and this was the distribution of answers even
the distribution of answers even
the distribution of answers even certainly is far from certain
and then then we have the really bad
and then then we have the really bad words these are known as weasel words I
words these are known as weasel words I
words these are known as weasel words I guess but there’s a chance that maybe
guess but there’s a chance that maybe
guess but there’s a chance that maybe possibly we could do this oh these words
possibly we could do this oh these words
possibly we could do this oh these words are so bad to actually say anything we
are so bad to actually say anything we
are so bad to actually say anything we should just scrub them from the language
should just scrub them from the language
should just scrub them from the language all together you ask me but if we do
all together you ask me but if we do
all together you ask me but if we do want to use them then we should only do
want to use them then we should only do
want to use them then we should only do it when we are deliberately pretending
it when we are deliberately pretending
it when we are deliberately pretending to convey information but we know that
to convey information but we know that
to convey information but we know that we’re not well most the time we are
we’re not well most the time we are
we’re not well most the time we are vague with our language at a sheer
vague with our language at a sheer
vague with our language at a sheer unconscious habit but this habit makes
unconscious habit but this habit makes
unconscious habit but this habit makes us intellectually dishonest with
us intellectually dishonest with
us intellectually dishonest with ourselves and it opens us up to biases
ourselves and it opens us up to biases
ourselves and it opens us up to biases like the hindsight bias or the illusion
like the hindsight bias or the illusion
like the hindsight bias or the illusion of transparency where we think we’re
of transparency where we think we’re
of transparency where we think we’re being better understood than we actually
being better understood than we actually
being better understood than we actually are
are
are and so now I’ve taken I’ve tried to
and so now I’ve taken I’ve tried to
and so now I’ve taken I’ve tried to build the habit in myself to quantify
build the habit in myself to quantify
build the habit in myself to quantify any any of these fuzzy words when I
any any of these fuzzy words when I
any any of these fuzzy words when I catch myself using them for example if a
catch myself using them for example if a
catch myself using them for example if a friend says to me hey Liv what do you
friend says to me hey Liv what do you
friend says to me hey Liv what do you think do you think you are gonna be able
think do you think you are gonna be able
think do you think you are gonna be able to make the time to help me out with
to make the time to help me out with
to make the time to help me out with that thing tonight instead of just
that thing tonight instead of just
that thing tonight instead of just saying
saying
saying yeah sure probably I’ll give them an
yeah sure probably I’ll give them an
yeah sure probably I’ll give them an estimation or say 90% because even if it
estimation or say 90% because even if it
estimation or say 90% because even if it feels even if it feels like I guess it’s
feels even if it feels like I guess it’s
feels even if it feels like I guess it’s still better than leaving it undefined
still better than leaving it undefined
still better than leaving it undefined for them because when we say a number we
for them because when we say a number we
for them because when we say a number we know that they’ll hear that number but
know that they’ll hear that number but
know that they’ll hear that number but if we use words we don’t actually know
if we use words we don’t actually know
if we use words we don’t actually know what lands in the other person’s brain
what lands in the other person’s brain
what lands in the other person’s brain and a handful of industries have taken
and a handful of industries have taken
and a handful of industries have taken to defining they’re commonly used
to defining they’re commonly used
to defining they’re commonly used trouble words take the pharmaceutical
trouble words take the pharmaceutical
trouble words take the pharmaceutical industry for example this is the list of
industry for example this is the list of
industry for example this is the list of standard definitions of words relating
standard definitions of words relating
standard definitions of words relating to the frequency of side-effects is what
to the frequency of side-effects is what
to the frequency of side-effects is what you might expect to see in your packet
you might expect to see in your packet
you might expect to see in your packet of paracetamol at home and it makes good
of paracetamol at home and it makes good
of paracetamol at home and it makes good sense because otherwise we wouldn’t be
sense because otherwise we wouldn’t be
sense because otherwise we wouldn’t be out of assess the risks to ourselves
out of assess the risks to ourselves
out of assess the risks to ourselves properly and I propose we come up with
properly and I propose we come up with
properly and I propose we come up with our own set of definitions as well
our own set of definitions as well
our own set of definitions as well perhaps something like this
what if we could all agree to use these
what if we could all agree to use these as a guideline in our daily lives or
as a guideline in our daily lives or
as a guideline in our daily lives or maybe in our workplaces or even get the
maybe in our workplaces or even get the
maybe in our workplaces or even get the media to use them because if it was to
media to use them because if it was to
media to use them because if it was to actually mean something then we need to
actually mean something then we need to
actually mean something then we need to have a mutual understanding of what they
have a mutual understanding of what they
have a mutual understanding of what they stand for but ultimately if there’s a
stand for but ultimately if there’s a
stand for but ultimately if there’s a situation when we can use a number then
situation when we can use a number then
situation when we can use a number then we really should do and it makes me sad
we really should do and it makes me sad
we really should do and it makes me sad the society has taught us to think that
the society has taught us to think that
the society has taught us to think that speaking in numbers is nerdy and uncool
speaking in numbers is nerdy and uncool
speaking in numbers is nerdy and uncool because there’s a awesome
because there’s a awesome
because there’s a awesome they give us clarity and granularity and
they give us clarity and granularity and
they give us clarity and granularity and help us up like way up our options
help us up like way up our options
help us up like way up our options better in the face of uncertainty and
better in the face of uncertainty and
better in the face of uncertainty and you will remember that scene in the
you will remember that scene in the
you will remember that scene in the matrix where neo has that the best bit
matrix where neo has that the best bit
matrix where neo has that the best bit where he has that breakthrough where he
where he has that breakthrough where he
where he has that breakthrough where he starts seeing the whole world as it
starts seeing the whole world as it
starts seeing the whole world as it really is and all the little green bits
really is and all the little green bits
really is and all the little green bits of code trickling down well we too can
of code trickling down well we too can
of code trickling down well we too can learn to see the world in probabilities
learn to see the world in probabilities
learn to see the world in probabilities you can and then when we do we’ll
you can and then when we do we’ll
you can and then when we do we’ll actually be better equipped to handle
actually be better equipped to handle
actually be better equipped to handle all the good and bad luck that life
all the good and bad luck that life
all the good and bad luck that life might throw at us because one will never
might throw at us because one will never
might throw at us because one will never be certain of which path our future will
be certain of which path our future will
be certain of which path our future will take we can control the likelihoods of
take we can control the likelihoods of
take we can control the likelihoods of the paths that we want thank you
the paths that we want thank you
the paths that we want thank you [Applause]
[Music]
[Music] you
”
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