people have short memories and you’re only as good as your last forecast so if
only as good as your last forecast so if
only as good as your last forecast so if you mess up a forecast especially a
you mess up a forecast especially a
you mess up a forecast especially a high-impact forecast people remember
high-impact forecast people remember
high-impact forecast people remember that a three-day forecast today is about
that a three-day forecast today is about
that a three-day forecast today is about as accurate as a one day forecast was in
as accurate as a one day forecast was in
as accurate as a one day forecast was in the 1970s if you look at a 1 day
the 1970s if you look at a 1 day
the 1970s if you look at a 1 day forecast for example of temperatures
forecast for example of temperatures
forecast for example of temperatures we’re within about 3 to 4 degrees of
we’re within about 3 to 4 degrees of
we’re within about 3 to 4 degrees of being exactly right 90% of the time you
being exactly right 90% of the time you
being exactly right 90% of the time you have to as an expert give your best bet
have to as an expert give your best bet
have to as an expert give your best bet but you also want to communicate that
but you also want to communicate that
but you also want to communicate that look especially with a high impact
look especially with a high impact
look especially with a high impact forecast that there’s this range there’s
forecast that there’s this range there’s
forecast that there’s this range there’s this idea of chaos theory which means at
this idea of chaos theory which means at
this idea of chaos theory which means at some point there’s a limit to how far
some point there’s a limit to how far
some point there’s a limit to how far out you can predict just because a
out you can predict just because a
out you can predict just because a random fluctuation somewhere can lead to
random fluctuation somewhere can lead to
random fluctuation somewhere can lead to big changes which propagate and grow and
big changes which propagate and grow and
big changes which propagate and grow and get bigger and bigger as you get farther
get bigger and bigger as you get farther
get bigger and bigger as you get farther out in time there are several forecast
out in time there are several forecast
out in time there are several forecast models we use there is a American model
models we use there is a American model
models we use there is a American model no there’s a GFS model that is a global
no there’s a GFS model that is a global
no there’s a GFS model that is a global forecast model which provides forecasts
forecast model which provides forecasts
forecast model which provides forecasts out to 16 days into the future and then
out to 16 days into the future and then
out to 16 days into the future and then the European Centre for medium-range
the European Centre for medium-range
the European Centre for medium-range forecasting has a model called the
forecasting has a model called the
forecasting has a model called the European model if you look at statistics
European model if you look at statistics
European model if you look at statistics of how accurate the models are the
of how accurate the models are the
of how accurate the models are the European model is the most accurate some
European model is the most accurate some
European model is the most accurate some storms a European model will do better
storms a European model will do better
storms a European model will do better other storms the GFS model will do
other storms the GFS model will do
other storms the GFS model will do better even though statistics might tell
better even though statistics might tell
better even though statistics might tell you that the European model is the best
you that the European model is the best
you that the European model is the best you can’t take it to the bank in every
you can’t take it to the bank in every
you can’t take it to the bank in every case when you compare the jobs that
case when you compare the jobs that
case when you compare the jobs that weather forecasters do in terms of their
weather forecasters do in terms of their
weather forecasters do in terms of their batting average compared to other
batting average compared to other
batting average compared to other professions whether it’s diagnosing a
professions whether it’s diagnosing a
professions whether it’s diagnosing a disease as a medical professional or
disease as a medical professional or
disease as a medical professional or whether it’s doing economic forecasting
whether it’s doing economic forecasting
whether it’s doing economic forecasting or whether it’s an athlete who’s has a
or whether it’s an athlete who’s has a
or whether it’s an athlete who’s has a batting average of 333 you know weather
batting average of 333 you know weather
batting average of 333 you know weather forecasting is actually pretty good when
forecasting is actually pretty good when
forecasting is actually pretty good when it comes to performance
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