when hurricane Lily hit the Louisiana Shore back in 2002 it didn’t do much
Shore back in 2002 it didn’t do much
Shore back in 2002 it didn’t do much damage but it did leave meteorologists
damage but it did leave meteorologists
damage but it did leave meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center very
at the National Hurricane Center very
at the National Hurricane Center very confused this a loop behind me you can
confused this a loop behind me you can
confused this a loop behind me you can see Lily coming in across Cuba it became
see Lily coming in across Cuba it became
see Lily coming in across Cuba it became a category 4 hurricane right here in the
a category 4 hurricane right here in the
a category 4 hurricane right here in the central Gulf of Mexico but then it
central Gulf of Mexico but then it
central Gulf of Mexico but then it weakened down to a category 1 hurricane
weakened down to a category 1 hurricane
weakened down to a category 1 hurricane at landfall dr. max Mayfield is the
at landfall dr. max Mayfield is the
at landfall dr. max Mayfield is the former director of the National
former director of the National
former director of the National Hurricane Center he says that over the
Hurricane Center he says that over the
Hurricane Center he says that over the years his team got better and better at
years his team got better and better at
years his team got better and better at predicting a hurricane struck but what
predicting a hurricane struck but what
predicting a hurricane struck but what we don’t do a good job at is catching
we don’t do a good job at is catching
we don’t do a good job at is catching the rapidly changing hurricanes the ones
the rapidly changing hurricanes the ones
the rapidly changing hurricanes the ones that rapidly intensify like lily and the
that rapidly intensify like lily and the
that rapidly intensify like lily and the ones that rapidly diminished like Lily
ones that rapidly diminished like Lily
ones that rapidly diminished like Lily did before landfall and being able to
did before landfall and being able to
did before landfall and being able to predict a Hurricanes intensity is
predict a Hurricanes intensity is
predict a Hurricanes intensity is vitally important you really do have to
vitally important you really do have to
vitally important you really do have to know the intensity of the hurricane
know the intensity of the hurricane
know the intensity of the hurricane because the evacuation plans are based
because the evacuation plans are based
because the evacuation plans are based on not just where the hurricane is going
on not just where the hurricane is going
on not just where the hurricane is going to hit but on how strong it is and
to hit but on how strong it is and
to hit but on how strong it is and there’s a big big difference between the
there’s a big big difference between the
there’s a big big difference between the category 1 hurricane that might have 4
category 1 hurricane that might have 4
category 1 hurricane that might have 4 to 5 feet of storm surge person and the
to 5 feet of storm surge person and the
to 5 feet of storm surge person and the category 5 hurricane that could have
category 5 hurricane that could have
category 5 hurricane that could have above 20 feet of storm surge learning
above 20 feet of storm surge learning
above 20 feet of storm surge learning what factors ultimately help in
what factors ultimately help in
what factors ultimately help in predicting a hurricane strength is the
predicting a hurricane strength is the
predicting a hurricane strength is the first step
first step
first step one factor in helping to predict how
one factor in helping to predict how
one factor in helping to predict how strong a hurricane could be the Saharan
strong a hurricane could be the Saharan
strong a hurricane could be the Saharan air layer this is the warm dusty air
air layer this is the warm dusty air
air layer this is the warm dusty air that blows off of Africa the dust in the
that blows off of Africa the dust in the
that blows off of Africa the dust in the Saharan air layer can actually act to
Saharan air layer can actually act to
Saharan air layer can actually act to change the microphysics in the clouds
change the microphysics in the clouds
change the microphysics in the clouds and actually reduce the hurricane
and actually reduce the hurricane
and actually reduce the hurricane activity and even the thunderstorm
activity and even the thunderstorm
activity and even the thunderstorm activity it can also warm the Saharan
activity it can also warm the Saharan
activity it can also warm the Saharan air layer and create what we call a
air layer and create what we call a
air layer and create what we call a temperature inversion which makes it
temperature inversion which makes it
temperature inversion which makes it very hard for the thunderstorm tops to
very hard for the thunderstorm tops to
very hard for the thunderstorm tops to bubble up through the atmosphere it also
bubble up through the atmosphere it also
bubble up through the atmosphere it also contains a lot of strong winds that
contains a lot of strong winds that
contains a lot of strong winds that create vertical wind shear and very dry
create vertical wind shear and very dry
create vertical wind shear and very dry air that really knocks the punch takes a
air that really knocks the punch takes a
air that really knocks the punch takes a punch out of hurricanes Jason Dunn ioan
punch out of hurricanes Jason Dunn ioan
punch out of hurricanes Jason Dunn ioan is meteorologist with NOAA’s hurricane
is meteorologist with NOAA’s hurricane
is meteorologist with NOAA’s hurricane research division he believes the
research division he believes the
research division he believes the Saharan air layer is a major force in
Saharan air layer is a major force in
Saharan air layer is a major force in predicting which hurricanes boom and
predicting which hurricanes boom and
predicting which hurricanes boom and which ones go bust researchers can now
which ones go bust researchers can now
which ones go bust researchers can now see both the hurricane and the Saharan
see both the hurricane and the Saharan
see both the hurricane and the Saharan air layer at the same time we can track
air layer at the same time we can track
air layer at the same time we can track the Saharan air layer seeing it here in
the Saharan air layer seeing it here in
the Saharan air layer seeing it here in orange and yellow and hurricane Aaron
orange and yellow and hurricane Aaron
orange and yellow and hurricane Aaron and you can see that the system actually
and you can see that the system actually
and you can see that the system actually becomes enveloped by the Saharan air
becomes enveloped by the Saharan air
becomes enveloped by the Saharan air layer and this could be one of the
layer and this could be one of the
layer and this could be one of the reasons why this system struggled early
reasons why this system struggled early
reasons why this system struggled early on but later in the time period you can
on but later in the time period you can
on but later in the time period you can see Aaron pops out of the Saharan air
see Aaron pops out of the Saharan air
see Aaron pops out of the Saharan air layer and rapidly intensifies into a
layer and rapidly intensifies into a
layer and rapidly intensifies into a major hurricane the next step is for
major hurricane the next step is for
major hurricane the next step is for researchers to learn more about the
researchers to learn more about the
researchers to learn more about the Saharan air layer with this new
Saharan air layer with this new
Saharan air layer with this new satellite technology that we have we can
satellite technology that we have we can
satellite technology that we have we can actually track this hair in air layer
actually track this hair in air layer
actually track this hair in air layer and send our know and airforce hurricane
and send our know and airforce hurricane
and send our know and airforce hurricane hunters out to the Saharan air layer and
hunters out to the Saharan air layer and
hunters out to the Saharan air layer and sample it using GPS drop wind signs and
sample it using GPS drop wind signs and
sample it using GPS drop wind signs and they can help us measure the strong
they can help us measure the strong
they can help us measure the strong winds and very dry air in the air layer
winds and very dry air in the air layer
winds and very dry air in the air layer and that may help us understand how the
and that may help us understand how the
and that may help us understand how the Saharan air layer interacts with
Saharan air layer interacts with
Saharan air layer interacts with hurricanes and ultimately this research
hurricanes and ultimately this research
hurricanes and ultimately this research is all about making our lives a lot
is all about making our lives a lot
is all about making our lives a lot safer
”
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