so right now how many of you can say in your life you have done something that
your life you have done something that
your life you have done something that has changed the world literally change
has changed the world literally change
has changed the world literally change the world how many can I see a show of
the world how many can I see a show of
the world how many can I see a show of hands is my hand the only hand up well
hands is my hand the only hand up well
hands is my hand the only hand up well it shouldn’t be it should be dr. Mario
it shouldn’t be it should be dr. Mario
it shouldn’t be it should be dr. Mario Molina one of our speakers tonight who
Molina one of our speakers tonight who
Molina one of our speakers tonight who has literally changed the world but if
has literally changed the world but if
has literally changed the world but if you could not raise your hand
you could not raise your hand
you could not raise your hand don’t despair our other guest dr. Ian
don’t despair our other guest dr. Ian
don’t despair our other guest dr. Ian cousin is doing research that could help
cousin is doing research that could help
cousin is doing research that could help inform us how we might influence the
inform us how we might influence the
inform us how we might influence the decisions of enough people to impact the
decisions of enough people to impact the
decisions of enough people to impact the world in a positive way I suppose
world in a positive way I suppose
world in a positive way I suppose getting sounds a bit like a self-help
getting sounds a bit like a self-help
getting sounds a bit like a self-help seminar but it is actually locust swarms
seminar but it is actually locust swarms
seminar but it is actually locust swarms and ozone holes poles to better explain
and ozone holes poles to better explain
and ozone holes poles to better explain how these issues can have such
how these issues can have such
how these issues can have such far-reaching impact we are going to hear
far-reaching impact we are going to hear
far-reaching impact we are going to hear from both professor Mario Molina and Ian
from both professor Mario Molina and Ian
from both professor Mario Molina and Ian cousin part of what we like to see in
cousin part of what we like to see in
cousin part of what we like to see in this in these evenings of conversations
this in these evenings of conversations
this in these evenings of conversations with Nobel laureates and actually I did
with Nobel laureates and actually I did
with Nobel laureates and actually I did not mention but in 1995 professor Molina
not mention but in 1995 professor Molina
not mention but in 1995 professor Molina was shared the Nobel Prize for chemistry
was shared the Nobel Prize for chemistry
was shared the Nobel Prize for chemistry for work on CFCs chlorofluorocarbons and
for work on CFCs chlorofluorocarbons and
for work on CFCs chlorofluorocarbons and their impact on the ozone level so if
their impact on the ozone level so if
their impact on the ozone level so if we’re looking for a shared area it would
we’re looking for a shared area it would
we’re looking for a shared area it would seem like it’s biblically epic plagues
seem like it’s biblically epic plagues
seem like it’s biblically epic plagues locusts and disappearing environment
locusts and disappearing environment
locusts and disappearing environment brought on oftentimes by only human
brought on oftentimes by only human
brought on oftentimes by only human mistakes but I’m sure when you started
mistakes but I’m sure when you started
mistakes but I’m sure when you started your work you didn’t look at it and
your work you didn’t look at it and
your work you didn’t look at it and saying here’s a problem I’ve got to
saying here’s a problem I’ve got to
saying here’s a problem I’ve got to solve it there must have been a science
solve it there must have been a science
solve it there must have been a science that brought you for instance in
that brought you for instance in
that brought you for instance in studying chlorofluorocarbons they
studying chlorofluorocarbons they
studying chlorofluorocarbons they weren’t particularly there wasn’t a harm
weren’t particularly there wasn’t a harm
weren’t particularly there wasn’t a harm it wasn’t like cigarette smoking we were
it wasn’t like cigarette smoking we were
it wasn’t like cigarette smoking we were saying this is causing cancer that they
saying this is causing cancer that they
saying this is causing cancer that they were sprayed out of an aerosol can they
were sprayed out of an aerosol can they
were sprayed out of an aerosol can they were in refrigerants rise in every car
were in refrigerants rise in every car
were in refrigerants rise in every car air conditioner every refrigerator in
air conditioner every refrigerator in
air conditioner every refrigerator in the home and people were breathing it no
the home and people were breathing it no
the home and people were breathing it no harmful effects so why did you think
harmful effects so why did you think
harmful effects so why did you think there must be some chemical reaction
there must be some chemical reaction
there must be some chemical reaction happening somewhere and we don’t know
happening somewhere and we don’t know
happening somewhere and we don’t know what it is well what we set out to do
what it is well what we set out to do
what it is well what we set out to do together with my colleague sherry
together with my colleague sherry
together with my colleague sherry Rowland is to find out
Rowland is to find out
Rowland is to find out what happens to these components after
what happens to these components after
what happens to these components after they are released because they were
they are released because they were
they are released because they were created as miracle chemical so that they
created as miracle chemical so that they
created as miracle chemical so that they could replace dangerous refrigerants so
could replace dangerous refrigerants so
could replace dangerous refrigerants so these compounds were miraculous they
these compounds were miraculous they
these compounds were miraculous they were fantastic they were extremely
were fantastic they were extremely
were fantastic they were extremely stable but measurement showed they were
stable but measurement showed they were
stable but measurement showed they were beginning to pile up in the atmosphere
beginning to pile up in the atmosphere
beginning to pile up in the atmosphere so essentially we decided to find out
so essentially we decided to find out
so essentially we decided to find out whether something would happen or not
whether something would happen or not
whether something would happen or not because of they are so stable that’s why
because of they are so stable that’s why
because of they are so stable that’s why they go all the way up to the
they go all the way up to the
they go all the way up to the stratosphere and when they decompose
stratosphere and when they decompose
stratosphere and when they decompose they can destroy part of the
they can destroy part of the
they can destroy part of the stratosphere okay so this was just a
stratosphere okay so this was just a
stratosphere okay so this was just a logical finding of what are the
logical finding of what are the
logical finding of what are the consequences of human activities and so
consequences of human activities and so
consequences of human activities and so you have to look at all the
you have to look at all the
you have to look at all the possibilities we made the discovery
possibilities we made the discovery
possibilities we made the discovery we’ll get to what happened when you told
we’ll get to what happened when you told
we’ll get to what happened when you told the world about your discovery in a
the world about your discovery in a
the world about your discovery in a moment but in did were you attracted to
moment but in did were you attracted to
moment but in did were you attracted to the the problem of locusts is that what
the the problem of locusts is that what
the the problem of locusts is that what drew you to this to look at group
drew you to this to look at group
drew you to this to look at group behavior were you just interested in
behavior were you just interested in
behavior were you just interested in group behavior and you decide well
group behavior and you decide well
group behavior and you decide well locust azar about the biggest group we
locust azar about the biggest group we
locust azar about the biggest group we can find well I was interested in in
can find well I was interested in in
can find well I was interested in in generally in group behavior and looking
generally in group behavior and looking
generally in group behavior and looking for for systems that we didn’t
for for systems that we didn’t
for for systems that we didn’t understand how and why they grouped and
understand how and why they grouped and
understand how and why they grouped and locust was very appealing because of
locust was very appealing because of
locust was very appealing because of this huge impact that they have on the
this huge impact that they have on the
this huge impact that they have on the livelihood of so many people on the
livelihood of so many people on the
livelihood of so many people on the planet and in science magazine in 2004
planet and in science magazine in 2004
planet and in science magazine in 2004 what really triggered us was a review
what really triggered us was a review
what really triggered us was a review that said even after 50 years of
that said even after 50 years of
that said even after 50 years of experience fighting looks as more of an
experience fighting looks as more of an
experience fighting looks as more of an art than a science and that’s very
art than a science and that’s very
art than a science and that’s very embarrassing as scientists because the
embarrassing as scientists because the
embarrassing as scientists because the individual locust is one of the best
individual locust is one of the best
individual locust is one of the best studied organisms in neurobiology and
studied organisms in neurobiology and
studied organisms in neurobiology and behavior but the last time someone put
behavior but the last time someone put
behavior but the last time someone put them together to see how they swarmed
them together to see how they swarmed
them together to see how they swarmed was a woman called Peggy Ellis in 1954
was a woman called Peggy Ellis in 1954
was a woman called Peggy Ellis in 1954 he published it in an obscure journal
he published it in an obscure journal
he published it in an obscure journal called the locust bulletin and I think
called the locust bulletin and I think
called the locust bulletin and I think and that’s a big seller right I’ll order
and that’s a big seller right I’ll order
and that’s a big seller right I’ll order another subscription there was there was
another subscription there was there was
another subscription there was there was there was really no research going on
there was really no research going on
there was really no research going on trying to understand how they swarm and
trying to understand how they swarm and
trying to understand how they swarm and if we don’t understand how they swarm
if we don’t understand how they swarm
if we don’t understand how they swarm then there’s no hope for us to develop
then there’s no hope for us to develop
then there’s no hope for us to develop control methods or more effective
control methods or more effective
control methods or more effective control methods now when you think
control methods now when you think
control methods now when you think you’ve made a discovery of what the
you’ve made a discovery of what the
you’ve made a discovery of what the dynamic that surprises everyone because
dynamic that surprises everyone because
dynamic that surprises everyone because when you say the reason locust
when you say the reason locust
when you say the reason locust because their cannibal its sucking each
because their cannibal its sucking each
because their cannibal its sucking each other it certainly surprised us it was
other it certainly surprised us it was
other it certainly surprised us it was it was completely fortuitous are you
it was completely fortuitous are you
it was completely fortuitous are you hesitant to release that information you
hesitant to release that information you
hesitant to release that information you double and triple-check it because you
double and triple-check it because you
double and triple-check it because you say this is so different well I mean
say this is so different well I mean
say this is so different well I mean initially I I thought I was going insane
initially I I thought I was going insane
initially I I thought I was going insane because I was putting low Christy and
because I was putting low Christy and
because I was putting low Christy and I’d have to put say a hundred locust in
I’d have to put say a hundred locust in
I’d have to put say a hundred locust in and then my postdoc who would take them
and then my postdoc who would take them
and then my postdoc who would take them out eight hours later at the end of a
out eight hours later at the end of a
out eight hours later at the end of a locust day would say you you said you
locust day would say you you said you
locust day would say you you said you were gonna put in a hundred but they
were gonna put in a hundred but they
were gonna put in a hundred but they were only 98 this happened again and
were only 98 this happened again and
were only 98 this happened again and again he was a sort of
again he was a sort of
again he was a sort of passive-aggressive frenchman and i
passive-aggressive frenchman and i
passive-aggressive frenchman and i became quite scared and i thought you
became quite scared and i thought you
became quite scared and i thought you know how are they how are they escaping
know how are they how are they escaping
know how are they how are they escaping they don’t have wings and we’ve coated
they don’t have wings and we’ve coated
they don’t have wings and we’ve coated the the edges with a chemical such they
the the edges with a chemical such they
the the edges with a chemical such they can’t climb and then it was going back
can’t climb and then it was going back
can’t climb and then it was going back to the videos we realized they were
to the videos we realized they were
to the videos we realized they were eating each other which was completely
eating each other which was completely
eating each other which was completely unexpected so this is you are what you
unexpected so this is you are what you
unexpected so this is you are what you eat if you’re absolutely yeah one it’s a
eat if you’re absolutely yeah one it’s a
eat if you’re absolutely yeah one it’s a perfectly packaged source of nutrients
perfectly packaged source of nutrients
perfectly packaged source of nutrients it’s exactly the right composition of
it’s exactly the right composition of
it’s exactly the right composition of fats and proteins and salts in the blood
fats and proteins and salts in the blood
fats and proteins and salts in the blood the percentage of salt of a locust is
the percentage of salt of a locust is
the percentage of salt of a locust is the exact percentage that they most
the exact percentage that they most
the exact percentage that they most desire we have done experiments with
desire we have done experiments with
desire we have done experiments with moment crickets in Utah and Idaho where
moment crickets in Utah and Idaho where
moment crickets in Utah and Idaho where we put down different salt
we put down different salt
we put down different salt concentrations and they will scramble
concentrations and they will scramble
concentrations and they will scramble and fight over 0.25 molar salt
and fight over 0.25 molar salt
and fight over 0.25 molar salt concentration they taste it with their
concentration they taste it with their
concentration they taste it with their feet and they fight vigorously and
feet and they fight vigorously and
feet and they fight vigorously and that’s exactly the concentration of salt
that’s exactly the concentration of salt
that’s exactly the concentration of salt in their blood so they’re finely tuned
in their blood so they’re finely tuned
in their blood so they’re finely tuned to a cannibalistic lifestyle this may be
to a cannibalistic lifestyle this may be
to a cannibalistic lifestyle this may be a new vampire series I can see it coming
a new vampire series I can see it coming
a new vampire series I can see it coming now to the National Geographic Channel
now to the National Geographic Channel
now to the National Geographic Channel all right when you made your discovery
all right when you made your discovery
all right when you made your discovery was there any hesitancy to release what
was there any hesitancy to release what
was there any hesitancy to release what you were finding because people thought
you were finding because people thought
you were finding because people thought we’ve got the miracle as you described
we’ve got the miracle as you described
we’ve got the miracle as you described it the miracle chemicals that have made
it the miracle chemicals that have made
it the miracle chemicals that have made our lives so much more convenient and
our lives so much more convenient and
our lives so much more convenient and easy and by the way at the time you made
easy and by the way at the time you made
easy and by the way at the time you made this discovery of what
this discovery of what
this discovery of what chlorofluorocarbons were doing people
chlorofluorocarbons were doing people
chlorofluorocarbons were doing people had an average of how many aerosol cans
had an average of how many aerosol cans
had an average of how many aerosol cans in their home this is how ubiquitous
in their home this is how ubiquitous
in their home this is how ubiquitous they were at the time about 40 the
they were at the time about 40 the
they were at the time about 40 the average American had 40 aerosol cans in
average American had 40 aerosol cans in
average American had 40 aerosol cans in their home at the time we were dependent
their home at the time we were dependent
their home at the time we were dependent upon it so were you hesitant to release
upon it so were you hesitant to release
upon it so were you hesitant to release this there was some hesitancy as a
this there was some hesitancy as a
this there was some hesitancy as a scientist to go and communicate with the
scientist to go and communicate with the
scientist to go and communicate with the media because it was not very well
media because it was not very well
media because it was not very well perceived um you had to publish in
perceived um you had to publish in
perceived um you had to publish in scientific journals but quit with my
scientific journals but quit with my
scientific journals but quit with my colleague I remembers and if not us who
colleague I remembers and if not us who
colleague I remembers and if not us who and even if not
and even if not
and even if not now when so we made a decision we had to
now when so we made a decision we had to
now when so we made a decision we had to go out and talk to the not just to the
go out and talk to the not just to the
go out and talk to the not just to the media but to decision-makers and it was
media but to decision-makers and it was
media but to decision-makers and it was not very well seen by the entire
not very well seen by the entire
not very well seen by the entire community but I’m glad we did because we
community but I’m glad we did because we
community but I’m glad we did because we were convinced that the threat was real
were convinced that the threat was real
were convinced that the threat was real and eventually of course it that that’s
and eventually of course it that that’s
and eventually of course it that that’s came to me at the time you said it
came to me at the time you said it
came to me at the time you said it really was the chlorine in this
really was the chlorine in this
really was the chlorine in this combination it wasn’t the carbon that’s
combination it wasn’t the carbon that’s
combination it wasn’t the carbon that’s released the chlorine destroying the
released the chlorine destroying the
released the chlorine destroying the ozone layer right and then immediately
ozone layer right and then immediately
ozone layer right and then immediately I’m sure industry ran up and said thank
I’m sure industry ran up and said thank
I’m sure industry ran up and said thank you for stopping us before we destroyed
you for stopping us before we destroyed
you for stopping us before we destroyed the plan well it’s interesting that’s
the plan well it’s interesting that’s
the plan well it’s interesting that’s one of the main differences with climate
one of the main differences with climate
one of the main differences with climate change because these compounds were
change because these compounds were
change because these compounds were manufactured essentially by a small
manufactured essentially by a small
manufactured essentially by a small number of large chemical companies which
number of large chemical companies which
number of large chemical companies which initially were of course very reluctant
initially were of course very reluctant
initially were of course very reluctant to do anything about it and they said we
to do anything about it and they said we
to do anything about it and they said we won’t stop unless this makes sense and
won’t stop unless this makes sense and
won’t stop unless this makes sense and it doesn’t make sense to us but they
it doesn’t make sense to us but they
it doesn’t make sense to us but they made a statements if the science proves
made a statements if the science proves
made a statements if the science proves to be correct we will stop doing that
to be correct we will stop doing that
to be correct we will stop doing that and and they that’s what they did
and and they that’s what they did
and and they that’s what they did and of course it was coupled to this
and of course it was coupled to this
and of course it was coupled to this international agreements but industry at
international agreements but industry at
international agreements but industry at the end of course came along and they
the end of course came along and they
the end of course came along and they were able to make replacement compounds
were able to make replacement compounds
were able to make replacement compounds so that we can still use brake and air
so that we can still use brake and air
so that we can still use brake and air conditioning and so on and so forth but
conditioning and so on and so forth but
conditioning and so on and so forth but with compounds that do not affect the
with compounds that do not affect the
with compounds that do not affect the ozone layer in a minute we’ll talk about
ozone layer in a minute we’ll talk about
ozone layer in a minute we’ll talk about in the short period of time what the
in the short period of time what the
in the short period of time what the change has been in reaction to
change has been in reaction to
change has been in reaction to scientific information now a part of
scientific information now a part of
scientific information now a part of your study you didn’t just stop with
your study you didn’t just stop with
your study you didn’t just stop with locusts because we always like to know
locusts because we always like to know
locusts because we always like to know how it affects us personally and since
how it affects us personally and since
how it affects us personally and since we’re not living in areas susceptible to
we’re not living in areas susceptible to
we’re not living in areas susceptible to locust plagues I’m sure not all group
locust plagues I’m sure not all group
locust plagues I’m sure not all group behavior not all decisions are made by
behavior not all decisions are made by
behavior not all decisions are made by I’m worried about the guy maybe on Wall
I’m worried about the guy maybe on Wall
I’m worried about the guy maybe on Wall Street it’s eating those around you
Street it’s eating those around you
Street it’s eating those around you right
right
right that’s not our normal behavior in a
that’s not our normal behavior in a
that’s not our normal behavior in a group dining right well one of one of
group dining right well one of one of
group dining right well one of one of the the really exciting areas of science
the the really exciting areas of science
the the really exciting areas of science at the moment is is really understanding
at the moment is is really understanding
at the moment is is really understanding better the scientific principles of
better the scientific principles of
better the scientific principles of social communication and how decisions
social communication and how decisions
social communication and how decisions are made and how opinions form in
are made and how opinions form in
are made and how opinions form in populations and how we can because we of
populations and how we can because we of
populations and how we can because we of course are up
course are up
course are up unfortunately we are selfish you know we
unfortunately we are selfish you know we
unfortunately we are selfish you know we think about our own you know benefits
think about our own you know benefits
think about our own you know benefits and we don’t necessarily care as much
and we don’t necessarily care as much
and we don’t necessarily care as much about others as we as we should and so
about others as we as we should and so
about others as we as we should and so this leads to some problems such as in
this leads to some problems such as in
this leads to some problems such as in climate change how do you manage to sway
climate change how do you manage to sway
climate change how do you manage to sway the opinion of a population such that
the opinion of a population such that
the opinion of a population such that they can understand the scientific
they can understand the scientific
they can understand the scientific material and that they will forego you
material and that they will forego you
material and that they will forego you know something relatively small but
know something relatively small but
know something relatively small but forego something on their personal
forego something on their personal
forego something on their personal regarding their personal life for the
regarding their personal life for the
regarding their personal life for the for the global good for the common good
for the global good for the common good
for the global good for the common good and so this is a really fundamental
and so this is a really fundamental
and so this is a really fundamental issue is to try to understand how and
issue is to try to understand how and
issue is to try to understand how and why the opinions form in populations
why the opinions form in populations
why the opinions form in populations individuals that actually will not be
individuals that actually will not be
individuals that actually will not be biased will not have a pre bias in their
biased will not have a pre bias in their
biased will not have a pre bias in their opinions can have a very strong
opinions can have a very strong
opinions can have a very strong influence on the outcome they they they
influence on the outcome they they they
influence on the outcome they they they encourage consensus to happen because if
encourage consensus to happen because if
encourage consensus to happen because if you have two vying groups with no
you have two vying groups with no
you have two vying groups with no intermediaries it’s hard for a consensus
intermediaries it’s hard for a consensus
intermediaries it’s hard for a consensus to be achieved then let me speculate or
to be achieved then let me speculate or
to be achieved then let me speculate or I find your data fascinating because
I find your data fascinating because
I find your data fascinating because there are indeed things that can be
there are indeed things that can be
there are indeed things that can be explained that way because there are
explained that way because there are
explained that way because there are surveys okay so it turns out when you’re
surveys okay so it turns out when you’re
surveys okay so it turns out when you’re talking about minorities the survey show
talking about minorities the survey show
talking about minorities the survey show that it’s only about 10 to 12 percent of
that it’s only about 10 to 12 percent of
that it’s only about 10 to 12 percent of the population at least a couple of
the population at least a couple of
the population at least a couple of years ago that were really thinking this
years ago that were really thinking this
years ago that were really thinking this is the climate change issues just all
is the climate change issues just all
is the climate change issues just all the folks that it’s it’s the scientists
the folks that it’s it’s the scientists
the folks that it’s it’s the scientists are crazy and so it’s clearly minority
are crazy and so it’s clearly minority
are crazy and so it’s clearly minority but they were very powerful so they were
but they were very powerful so they were
but they were very powerful so they were able to influence at least half the
able to influence at least half the
able to influence at least half the population of course through the media
population of course through the media
population of course through the media because it was there was a very well
because it was there was a very well
because it was there was a very well organized and pain and so on the ozone
organized and pain and so on the ozone
organized and pain and so on the ozone issue it would not have worked if it had
issue it would not have worked if it had
issue it would not have worked if it had been up to individual initiative to stop
been up to individual initiative to stop
been up to individual initiative to stop using CFCs yeah that’s right government
using CFCs yeah that’s right government
using CFCs yeah that’s right government involvement and I assume the same all I
involvement and I assume the same all I
involvement and I assume the same all I know the same will have to be with
know the same will have to be with
know the same will have to be with climate change the problem is too big
climate change the problem is too big
climate change the problem is too big you can’t just depend on everybody
you can’t just depend on everybody
you can’t just depend on everybody changing their lightbulbs or driving a
changing their lightbulbs or driving a
changing their lightbulbs or driving a hybrid that’s right so voluntary action
hybrid that’s right so voluntary action
hybrid that’s right so voluntary action is important it won’t solve the problem
is important it won’t solve the problem
is important it won’t solve the problem but it’s very important to show people
but it’s very important to show people
but it’s very important to show people in decision-making positions that they
in decision-making positions that they
in decision-making positions that they care and so politicians correspond to
care and so politicians correspond to
care and so politicians correspond to what people think and so that’s why it’s
what people think and so that’s why it’s
what people think and so that’s why it’s very important to have these movements
very important to have these movements
very important to have these movements because they do affect politics
because they do affect politics
because they do affect politics so what I’m getting at is in what do you
so what I’m getting at is in what do you
so what I’m getting at is in what do you see today we see in there’s kind of this
see today we see in there’s kind of this
see today we see in there’s kind of this general sort of ambivalent attitude
general sort of ambivalent attitude
general sort of ambivalent attitude toward science what do you see in in
toward science what do you see in in
toward science what do you see in in Princeton and what do you see it will be
Princeton and what do you see it will be
Princeton and what do you see it will be San Diego III personally I think the I
San Diego III personally I think the I
San Diego III personally I think the I think with the advent of things like
think with the advent of things like
think with the advent of things like social media like I love Twitter and I
social media like I love Twitter and I
social media like I love Twitter and I follow so many scientists and
follow so many scientists and
follow so many scientists and importantly scientific journalists there
importantly scientific journalists there
importantly scientific journalists there are so many good journalists out there
are so many good journalists out there
are so many good journalists out there who are promoting science and helping
who are promoting science and helping
who are promoting science and helping the public understanding of science and
the public understanding of science and
the public understanding of science and they’re doing it you know through blogs
they’re doing it you know through blogs
they’re doing it you know through blogs through Twitter and so on I think
through Twitter and so on I think
through Twitter and so on I think there’s a huge community of there’s a
there’s a huge community of there’s a
there’s a huge community of there’s a huge interest in science and so with
huge interest in science and so with
huge interest in science and so with these types of media I’m very hopeful
these types of media I’m very hopeful
these types of media I’m very hopeful that we can reach people who perhaps you
that we can reach people who perhaps you
that we can reach people who perhaps you know that their parents or their
know that their parents or their
know that their parents or their families inhibit them from learning
families inhibit them from learning
families inhibit them from learning about scientific methods and the
about scientific methods and the
about scientific methods and the scientific method is critical it’s
scientific method is critical it’s
scientific method is critical it’s thinking in a in a critical way about
thinking in a in a critical way about
thinking in a in a critical way about the world not just believing stuff
the world not just believing stuff
the world not just believing stuff because you’re told that’s how it is are
because you’re told that’s how it is are
because you’re told that’s how it is are you seeing the same yeah yes but I let
you seeing the same yeah yes but I let
you seeing the same yeah yes but I let me put it this way when we have a
me put it this way when we have a
me put it this way when we have a cocktail social meetings a common
cocktail social meetings a common
cocktail social meetings a common opinion is chemistry in high school Wow
opinion is chemistry in high school Wow
opinion is chemistry in high school Wow did I hate that it was horrible and I
did I hate that it was horrible and I
did I hate that it was horrible and I had to memorize things I really hated it
had to memorize things I really hated it
had to memorize things I really hated it see that’s a reflection of how badly
see that’s a reflection of how badly
see that’s a reflection of how badly it’s a reflection of how poor we are
it’s a reflection of how poor we are
it’s a reflection of how poor we are with education but there’s something
with education but there’s something
with education but there’s something going on a revolution in education new
going on a revolution in education new
going on a revolution in education new pedagogy so if the starting with k-12
pedagogy so if the starting with k-12
pedagogy so if the starting with k-12 science is becoming much more
science is becoming much more
science is becoming much more interesting for kids because you have
interesting for kids because you have
interesting for kids because you have now new techniques where they do the
now new techniques where they do the
now new techniques where they do the experiments they work with each other in
experiments they work with each other in
experiments they work with each other in teams and so on of course not everybody
teams and so on of course not everybody
teams and so on of course not everybody is doing that but this is something that
is doing that but this is something that
is doing that but this is something that the National Academies put together and
the National Academies put together and
the National Academies put together and it’s having an enormous success all the
it’s having an enormous success all the
it’s having an enormous success all the way to college in college instead of
way to college in college instead of
way to college in college instead of you’re sitting and listening to a
you’re sitting and listening to a
you’re sitting and listening to a professor but you get that you can just
professor but you get that you can just
professor but you get that you can just do on your own reading a text but you do
do on your own reading a text but you do
do on your own reading a text but you do active learning you’re gained working
active learning you’re gained working
active learning you’re gained working groups and you do experiment yourself so
groups and you do experiment yourself so
groups and you do experiment yourself so that’s a revolution in teaching and I
that’s a revolution in teaching and I
that’s a revolution in teaching and I think science is it’s already happening
think science is it’s already happening
think science is it’s already happening you can measure that with the kids
you can measure that with the kids
you can measure that with the kids it’s
it’s
it’s much more attractive that way than just
much more attractive that way than just
much more attractive that way than just memorizing or having to pass tests so
memorizing or having to pass tests so
memorizing or having to pass tests so there is hope that people will start
there is hope that people will start
there is hope that people will start accepting sure what the scientists are
accepting sure what the scientists are
accepting sure what the scientists are saying is happening on the planet or in
saying is happening on the planet or in
saying is happening on the planet or in any other part of our lives it’s the
any other part of our lives it’s the
any other part of our lives it’s the kind of looking facts then we will
kind of looking facts then we will
kind of looking facts then we will analyze them say yeah that yeah it’s
analyze them say yeah that yeah it’s
analyze them say yeah that yeah it’s it’s good that people would believe that
it’s good that people would believe that
it’s good that people would believe that I don’t know how they actually climb
I don’t know how they actually climb
I don’t know how they actually climb both airplanes it’s all based on science
both airplanes it’s all based on science
both airplanes it’s all based on science otherwise why don’t they crash we want
otherwise why don’t they crash we want
otherwise why don’t they crash we want to let you join the conversation if you
to let you join the conversation if you
to let you join the conversation if you have some questions we can doctor cousin
have some questions we can doctor cousin
have some questions we can doctor cousin um I’m curious if you’ve been approached
um I’m curious if you’ve been approached
um I’m curious if you’ve been approached to or thinking along the lines of how to
to or thinking along the lines of how to
to or thinking along the lines of how to use your work to say draw bigger crowds
use your work to say draw bigger crowds
use your work to say draw bigger crowds in a shopping mall to a particular store
in a shopping mall to a particular store
in a shopping mall to a particular store or kind of commercial applications like
or kind of commercial applications like
or kind of commercial applications like that well it turns out I would have no
that well it turns out I would have no
that well it turns out I would have no interest whatsoever in pursuing that
interest whatsoever in pursuing that
interest whatsoever in pursuing that that sort of that sort of work but it
that sort of that sort of work but it
that sort of that sort of work but it turns out that you know people used to
turns out that you know people used to
turns out that you know people used to believe you know Stanley Milgram a
believe you know Stanley Milgram a
believe you know Stanley Milgram a famous psychologist sort of had a study
famous psychologist sort of had a study
famous psychologist sort of had a study that you know suggested that this sort
that you know suggested that this sort
that you know suggested that this sort of crystallization of behavior in crowds
of crystallization of behavior in crowds
of crystallization of behavior in crowds there’s this strong nonlinearities and
there’s this strong nonlinearities and
there’s this strong nonlinearities and tipping points within crowd behaviors
tipping points within crowd behaviors
tipping points within crowd behaviors such as you know looking looking at you
such as you know looking looking at you
such as you know looking looking at you know in shops and so forth we’ve we’ve
know in shops and so forth we’ve we’ve
know in shops and so forth we’ve we’ve replicated those studies and tracked
replicated those studies and tracked
replicated those studies and tracked over 11,000 pedestrians and manipulated
over 11,000 pedestrians and manipulated
over 11,000 pedestrians and manipulated pedestrian behavior and fortunately for
pedestrian behavior and fortunately for
pedestrian behavior and fortunately for us our work is also consistent with his
us our work is also consistent with his
us our work is also consistent with his but he’s a single data point whereas we
but he’s a single data point whereas we
but he’s a single data point whereas we collected much more data to look at
collected much more data to look at
collected much more data to look at error distributions and what we find is
error distributions and what we find is
error distributions and what we find is that people are sufficiently sensitive
that people are sufficiently sensitive
that people are sufficiently sensitive to others to gain information from them
to others to gain information from them
to others to gain information from them but not so sensitive that they’ll
but not so sensitive that they’ll
but not so sensitive that they’ll blindly sort of copy and and and and so
blindly sort of copy and and and and so
blindly sort of copy and and and and so I’m thankful about that because
I’m thankful about that because
I’m thankful about that because otherwise I think it would be a bit
otherwise I think it would be a bit
otherwise I think it would be a bit scary how much we could manipulate
scary how much we could manipulate
scary how much we could manipulate people’s gaze distributions I’m getting
people’s gaze distributions I’m getting
people’s gaze distributions I’m getting the sense that it’s easier to make an
the sense that it’s easier to make an
the sense that it’s easier to make an analogy
analogy
analogy between human behavior and other kinds
between human behavior and other kinds
between human behavior and other kinds of life if the humans have good
of life if the humans have good
of life if the humans have good information about the decision of what
information about the decision of what
information about the decision of what to do but in political life where you
to do but in political life where you
to do but in political life where you were talking about the media tends to
were talking about the media tends to
were talking about the media tends to distort that decision in a way that I
distort that decision in a way that I
distort that decision in a way that I don’t see happening anywhere else in
don’t see happening anywhere else in
don’t see happening anywhere else in nature so is is there really that kind
nature so is is there really that kind
nature so is is there really that kind of factor going on somewhere that you
of factor going on somewhere that you
of factor going on somewhere that you can begin to get some sense of how those
can begin to get some sense of how those
can begin to get some sense of how those political decisions will be made based
political decisions will be made based
political decisions will be made based on something that happens like that in
on something that happens like that in
on something that happens like that in nature in studies by my colleague Matt’s
nature in studies by my colleague Matt’s
nature in studies by my colleague Matt’s organic at Princeton actually he did
organic at Princeton actually he did
organic at Princeton actually he did them when he was at Columbia University
them when he was at Columbia University
them when he was at Columbia University prior to that they allowed people to log
prior to that they allowed people to log
prior to that they allowed people to log into a website where you have songs and
into a website where you have songs and
into a website where you have songs and this is unsigned bands and Ahn’s had
this is unsigned bands and Ahn’s had
this is unsigned bands and Ahn’s had these songs before and unbeknown to you
these songs before and unbeknown to you
these songs before and unbeknown to you when you log in you’re placed in one of
when you log in you’re placed in one of
when you log in you’re placed in one of eight different worlds with you know
eight different worlds with you know
eight different worlds with you know thousands of other people and in some of
thousands of other people and in some of
thousands of other people and in some of these worlds you don’t get any social
these worlds you don’t get any social
these worlds you don’t get any social information about what others thought of
information about what others thought of
information about what others thought of the songs you just have your own view
the songs you just have your own view
the songs you just have your own view and you rate the songs and in those
and you rate the songs and in those
and you rate the songs and in those worlds there was strong correlation
worlds there was strong correlation
worlds there was strong correlation between the songs that were considered
between the songs that were considered
between the songs that were considered good the coastlands were considered
good the coastlands were considered
good the coastlands were considered average and those that were bad however
average and those that were bad however
average and those that were bad however in worlds where you do have social
in worlds where you do have social
in worlds where you do have social information where you see how many times
information where you see how many times
information where you see how many times the song had been downloaded and let’s
the song had been downloaded and let’s
the song had been downloaded and let’s get a sense of how popular it is you get
get a sense of how popular it is you get
get a sense of how popular it is you get massive cumulative advantage sometimes
massive cumulative advantage sometimes
massive cumulative advantage sometimes called the Justin Timberlake effect one
called the Justin Timberlake effect one
called the Justin Timberlake effect one very average can really reach the top or
very average can really reach the top or
very average can really reach the top or the bottom of the chart due to the
the bottom of the chart due to the
the bottom of the chart due to the scheme of advantage and so one way that
scheme of advantage and so one way that
scheme of advantage and so one way that I like to think about this is we’ve
I like to think about this is we’ve
I like to think about this is we’ve evolved to have a relatively slow rate
evolved to have a relatively slow rate
evolved to have a relatively slow rate of communication verbal song and so
of communication verbal song and so
of communication verbal song and so forth
forth
forth and when you have social media or
and when you have social media or
and when you have social media or technology this produces a very high
technology this produces a very high
technology this produces a very high rate of information flow and what we
rate of information flow and what we
rate of information flow and what we know from studies of animals and humans
know from studies of animals and humans
know from studies of animals and humans is that when you have fast positive
is that when you have fast positive
is that when you have fast positive feedback this type of cumulative
feedback this type of cumulative
feedback this type of cumulative advantage then decisions become less
advantage then decisions become less
advantage then decisions become less accurate and so you get these sort of
accurate and so you get these sort of
accurate and so you get these sort of heard type dynamics where you know you
heard type dynamics where you know you
heard type dynamics where you know you get this cascades of failure for example
get this cascades of failure for example
get this cascades of failure for example and so it’s not necessarily
and so it’s not necessarily
and so it’s not necessarily or true that more information or faster
or true that more information or faster
or true that more information or faster information is necessarily a good thing
information is necessarily a good thing
information is necessarily a good thing in relation to the media perhaps you’d
in relation to the media perhaps you’d
in relation to the media perhaps you’d have the comment about media it’s
have the comment about media it’s
have the comment about media it’s certainly has played a crucial role in
certainly has played a crucial role in
certainly has played a crucial role in in these issues that we’re discussing
in these issues that we’re discussing
in these issues that we’re discussing but in contrast we in the scientific
but in contrast we in the scientific
but in contrast we in the scientific community we haven’t done very well we
community we haven’t done very well we
community we haven’t done very well we scientists normally are not trained in
scientists normally are not trained in
scientists normally are not trained in terms of how to communicate so normally
terms of how to communicate so normally
terms of how to communicate so normally we just talk science and people normally
we just talk science and people normally
we just talk science and people normally get bored so we have done a very poor
get bored so we have done a very poor
get bored so we have done a very poor job in explaining in simple terms the
job in explaining in simple terms the
job in explaining in simple terms the essential features of the problem that
essential features of the problem that
essential features of the problem that we have so in part it’s our fault if you
we have so in part it’s our fault if you
we have so in part it’s our fault if you want but the media I think should help
want but the media I think should help
want but the media I think should help because they could get informed
because they could get informed
because they could get informed better informed and that’s happening
better informed and that’s happening
better informed and that’s happening already but rather slowly just we have
already but rather slowly just we have
already but rather slowly just we have time for one more question down here
time for one more question down here
time for one more question down here where she’s been in the various animal
where she’s been in the various animal
where she’s been in the various animal experiments there’s always a leader or
experiments there’s always a leader or
experiments there’s always a leader or leaders of the pack is there any
leaders of the pack is there any
leaders of the pack is there any characteristic that determines the
characteristic that determines the
characteristic that determines the physical or whatever characteristics
physical or whatever characteristics
physical or whatever characteristics that’s going to make the leader and if I
that’s going to make the leader and if I
that’s going to make the leader and if I take the leader and I take them out from
take the leader and I take them out from
take the leader and I take them out from the head of the pack what happens to the
the head of the pack what happens to the
the head of the pack what happens to the pack so it’s a really good question I
pack so it’s a really good question I
pack so it’s a really good question I mean not in all groups if you think of
mean not in all groups if you think of
mean not in all groups if you think of the locusts
the locusts
the locusts there’s no leaders in those locust
there’s no leaders in those locust
there’s no leaders in those locust swamps within fish schools or bird
swamps within fish schools or bird
swamps within fish schools or bird flocks or ungulate herds there may or
flocks or ungulate herds there may or
flocks or ungulate herds there may or may not be leaders but we have good
may not be leaders but we have good
may not be leaders but we have good reason to think that because individuals
reason to think that because individuals
reason to think that because individuals you know because the world is changing
you know because the world is changing
you know because the world is changing and the world is dynamic because
and the world is dynamic because
and the world is dynamic because individuals age and gain experience that
individuals age and gain experience that
individuals age and gain experience that they can often be leaders so for example
they can often be leaders so for example
they can often be leaders so for example in caribou migrations there’s actually a
in caribou migrations there’s actually a
in caribou migrations there’s actually a policy to let the leaders pass for half
policy to let the leaders pass for half
policy to let the leaders pass for half a day before you hunt and this actually
a day before you hunt and this actually
a day before you hunt and this actually comes from the elders this is cultural
comes from the elders this is cultural
comes from the elders this is cultural knowledge there hasn’t been a scientific
knowledge there hasn’t been a scientific
knowledge there hasn’t been a scientific study but it’s highly consistent with
study but it’s highly consistent with
study but it’s highly consistent with our simulations where we evolved
our simulations where we evolved
our simulations where we evolved migrations and we find that in our
migrations and we find that in our
migrations and we find that in our evolved populations we expect to have a
evolved populations we expect to have a
evolved populations we expect to have a small proportion of leaders and a larger
small proportion of leaders and a larger
small proportion of leaders and a larger proportion of followers and this means
proportion of followers and this means
proportion of followers and this means migrations can be very susceptible to
migrations can be very susceptible to
migrations can be very susceptible to damage and again unfortunately the
damage and again unfortunately the
damage and again unfortunately the scientific evidence is not yet
scientific evidence is not yet
scientific evidence is not yet accumulated but there is anecdotal
accumulated but there is anecdotal
accumulated but there is anecdotal evidence that for example in herring
evidence that for example in herring
evidence that for example in herring fishing one year they disproportionately
fishing one year they disproportionately
fishing one year they disproportionately took large individuals not deliberately
took large individuals not deliberately
took large individuals not deliberately but just by chance disproportionate at
but just by chance disproportionate at
but just by chance disproportionate at large individuals and that completely
large individuals and that completely
large individuals and that completely stopped the migration the migration
stopped the migration the migration
stopped the migration the migration didn’t happen that year and then when it
didn’t happen that year and then when it
didn’t happen that year and then when it started happening again it went to a
started happening again it went to a
started happening again it went to a different location and so there is this
different location and so there is this
different location and so there is this evidence that there is this transmission
evidence that there is this transmission
evidence that there is this transmission of information and so in certain groups
of information and so in certain groups
of information and so in certain groups this can be like a matriarch see an
this can be like a matriarch see an
this can be like a matriarch see an elephant groups or in other groups it
elephant groups or in other groups it
elephant groups or in other groups it may be dominant individuals that play a
may be dominant individuals that play a
may be dominant individuals that play a role and in many of the groups we look
role and in many of the groups we look
role and in many of the groups we look at its informational status leadership
at its informational status leadership
at its informational status leadership is transferable dynamically depending on
is transferable dynamically depending on
is transferable dynamically depending on who is information about what and we can
who is information about what and we can
who is information about what and we can do experiments where no individual knows
do experiments where no individual knows
do experiments where no individual knows the solution to a problem but by
the solution to a problem but by
the solution to a problem but by grouping together they can solve that
grouping together they can solve that
grouping together they can solve that problem and so they can sort of
problem and so they can sort of
problem and so they can sort of effectively combine information if I can
effectively combine information if I can
effectively combine information if I can make a comment that leaders in human
make a comment that leaders in human
make a comment that leaders in human society they’re of course extremely
society they’re of course extremely
society they’re of course extremely important and you can see that
important and you can see that
important and you can see that historically but how do they function in
historically but how do they function in
historically but how do they function in a democracy you would say okay they do
a democracy you would say okay they do
a democracy you would say okay they do what the majority wants no I think
what the majority wants no I think
what the majority wants no I think leaders go beyond that they convinced
leaders go beyond that they convinced
leaders go beyond that they convinced population that there’s a better way to
population that there’s a better way to
population that there’s a better way to do things and so on but it’s absolutely
do things and so on but it’s absolutely
do things and so on but it’s absolutely crucial to elect leaders and not just to
crucial to elect leaders and not just to
crucial to elect leaders and not just to elect people that will do what the
elect people that will do what the
elect people that will do what the majority thinks anyhow that’s perhaps
majority thinks anyhow that’s perhaps
majority thinks anyhow that’s perhaps pure politics and you go back on a
pure politics and you go back on a
pure politics and you go back on a positive note the change that Professor
positive note the change that Professor
positive note the change that Professor Molina made with this CFC studies and
Molina made with this CFC studies and
Molina made with this CFC studies and getting the ban on coral or carbons the
getting the ban on coral or carbons the
getting the ban on coral or carbons the ozone layer which had a hole in it is
ozone layer which had a hole in it is
ozone layer which had a hole in it is healing itself in a relatively short
healing itself in a relatively short
healing itself in a relatively short period of time on the other hand you’ve
period of time on the other hand you’ve
period of time on the other hand you’ve done study of migration patterns when
done study of migration patterns when
done study of migration patterns when migrations get interrupted
migrations get interrupted
migrations get interrupted they don’t resume quickly yeah you can
they don’t resume quickly yeah you can
they don’t resume quickly yeah you can actually lose them there can be a strong
actually lose them there can be a strong
actually lose them there can be a strong historical dependence whereby if you
historical dependence whereby if you
historical dependence whereby if you lose that information in the population
lose that information in the population
lose that information in the population even if you recover the
even if you recover the
even if you recover the habitats you will not recover the
habitats you will not recover the
habitats you will not recover the migration so if any very careful and on
migration so if any very careful and on
migration so if any very careful and on the global scale with climate change if
the global scale with climate change if
the global scale with climate change if indeed these projections prove true it
indeed these projections prove true it
indeed these projections prove true it will not turn around that fast
will not turn around that fast
will not turn around that fast yes leo so it won’t turn around as fast
yes leo so it won’t turn around as fast
yes leo so it won’t turn around as fast as the O’s no if temperature goes up
as the O’s no if temperature goes up
as the O’s no if temperature goes up four degrees Celsius then sea levels
four degrees Celsius then sea levels
four degrees Celsius then sea levels rise we won’t be able to correct our
rise we won’t be able to correct our
rise we won’t be able to correct our mistake within 10 years right well first
mistake within 10 years right well first
mistake within 10 years right well first of all then you clarified with the with
of all then you clarified with the with
of all then you clarified with the with the stratospheric problem it says the
the stratospheric problem it says the
the stratospheric problem it says the promise essentially solved what the
promise essentially solved what the
promise essentially solved what the compounds remain for many decades there
compounds remain for many decades there
compounds remain for many decades there so that’s why the ozone layer is hasn’t
so that’s why the ozone layer is hasn’t
so that’s why the ozone layer is hasn’t healed yet but it’s it’s improving so we
healed yet but it’s it’s improving so we
healed yet but it’s it’s improving so we will take another couple of decades but
will take another couple of decades but
will take another couple of decades but we knew that long time ago but we
we knew that long time ago but we
we knew that long time ago but we climate change it’s even worse because
climate change it’s even worse because
climate change it’s even worse because we know carbon dioxide about half is
we know carbon dioxide about half is
we know carbon dioxide about half is removed very fast but the remaining some
removed very fast but the remaining some
removed very fast but the remaining some of that remains in the atmosphere for
of that remains in the atmosphere for
of that remains in the atmosphere for more than a thousand meters so that’s a
more than a thousand meters so that’s a
more than a thousand meters so that’s a big problem that we have that that’s why
big problem that we have that that’s why
big problem that we have that that’s why we want to stop it because we’re
we want to stop it because we’re
we want to stop it because we’re committing the humanity for many many
committing the humanity for many many
committing the humanity for many many years unless of course we can extract it
years unless of course we can extract it
years unless of course we can extract it out of the atmosphere eventually but
out of the atmosphere eventually but
out of the atmosphere eventually but that’s a big word it’s a it takes a long
that’s a big word it’s a it takes a long
that’s a big word it’s a it takes a long time in the bottom line Ian you better
time in the bottom line Ian you better
time in the bottom line Ian you better hurry up and find out how to motivate
hurry up and find out how to motivate
hurry up and find out how to motivate people Oh what cut on that yeah and
people Oh what cut on that yeah and
people Oh what cut on that yeah and hopefully it’s not by devouring each
hopefully it’s not by devouring each
hopefully it’s not by devouring each other locusts now thank you for joining
other locusts now thank you for joining
other locusts now thank you for joining us it’s a most interesting evening
us it’s a most interesting evening
us it’s a most interesting evening whenever we get National Geographic
whenever we get National Geographic
whenever we get National Geographic explorers and Nobel laureates together
explorers and Nobel laureates together
explorers and Nobel laureates together and I think tonight was that and we all
and I think tonight was that and we all
and I think tonight was that and we all learned something and we learned we’d
learned something and we learned we’d
learned something and we learned we’d better get our act together thank you
”
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