A Plan to Feed the World | Future of Food

so I was asked to help write an article

so I was asked to help write an article at the beginning that really is trained

at the beginning that really is trained

at the beginning that really is trained as maybe start that conversation that

as maybe start that conversation that

as maybe start that conversation that Dennis is talking about because I think

Dennis is talking about because I think

Dennis is talking about because I think we all agree that you know the future of

we all agree that you know the future of

we all agree that you know the future of food is so instrumental to the future of

food is so instrumental to the future of

food is so instrumental to the future of our civilization to the future of our

our civilization to the future of our

our civilization to the future of our planet and I’m an environmental

planet and I’m an environmental

planet and I’m an environmental scientist so I’ll show you later why I

scientist so I’ll show you later why I

scientist so I’ll show you later why I care so much about food as it impacts

care so much about food as it impacts

care so much about food as it impacts the environment but if you really want

the environment but if you really want

the environment but if you really want to start with the whole big

to start with the whole big

to start with the whole big conversations around food we have to

conversations around food we have to

conversations around food we have to confront many issues many many issues

confront many issues many many issues

confront many issues many many issues and I’m only going to mention three

and I’m only going to mention three

and I’m only going to mention three these are just three big ones but there

these are just three big ones but there

these are just three big ones but there are others of course but one that others

are others of course but one that others

are others of course but one that others will speak to later today much more than

will speak to later today much more than

will speak to later today much more than I will it’s the need for feeding the

I will it’s the need for feeding the

I will it’s the need for feeding the world today that as was mentioned

world today that as was mentioned

world today that as was mentioned earlier we have just over seven billion

earlier we have just over seven billion

earlier we have just over seven billion people but nearly a billion people today

people but nearly a billion people today

people but nearly a billion people today are not adequately nourished and face

are not adequately nourished and face

are not adequately nourished and face food insecurity that’s not a problem of

food insecurity that’s not a problem of

food insecurity that’s not a problem of Agriculture and agronomics per se it’s

Agriculture and agronomics per se it’s

Agriculture and agronomics per se it’s really an issue of our poverty around

really an issue of our poverty around

really an issue of our poverty around the world and institutions land tenure

the world and institutions land tenure

the world and institutions land tenure governance it’s largely a political and

governance it’s largely a political and

governance it’s largely a political and institutional problem but as we think

institutional problem but as we think

institutional problem but as we think about the future we will see increasing

about the future we will see increasing

about the future we will see increasing demands on our food system part of that

demands on our food system part of that

demands on our food system part of that is population growth that’s a you know

is population growth that’s a you know

is population growth that’s a you know 30 to 35 percent increase in just the

30 to 35 percent increase in just the

30 to 35 percent increase in just the number of people between now and

number of people between now and

number of people between now and mid-century assuming nothing else

mid-century assuming nothing else

mid-century assuming nothing else changes but the big kind of elephant in

changes but the big kind of elephant in

changes but the big kind of elephant in the room is essentially a cow right

the room is essentially a cow right

the room is essentially a cow right we’re eating more meat as three to four

we’re eating more meat as three to four

we’re eating more meat as three to four billion people on the planet already are

billion people on the planet already are

billion people on the planet already are eating richer and richer higher and

eating richer and richer higher and

eating richer and richer higher and higher up with a food chain kind of

higher up with a food chain kind of

higher up with a food chain kind of diets so that’s why if nothing were to

diets so that’s why if nothing were to

diets so that’s why if nothing were to change the demand for food will probably

change the demand for food will probably

change the demand for food will probably increase from population growth but also

increase from population growth but also

increase from population growth but also dietary affluence of course I’m gonna

dietary affluence of course I’m gonna

dietary affluence of course I’m gonna argue later is that we can change those

argue later is that we can change those

argue later is that we can change those things and we probably cannot double our

things and we probably cannot double our

things and we probably cannot double our way to growing twice as much food we’re

way to growing twice as much food we’re

way to growing twice as much food we’re gonna have to figure out how to curb

gonna have to figure out how to curb

gonna have to figure out how to curb some of that demand as well and third we

some of that demand as well and third we

some of that demand as well and third we have to think about agriculture as it

have to think about agriculture as it

have to think about agriculture as it impacts the environment and the

impacts the environment and the

impacts the environment and the sustainability of Agriculture and this

sustainability of Agriculture and this

sustainability of Agriculture and this is important because agriculture is just

is important because agriculture is just

is important because agriculture is just so vast this is a map showing the extent

so vast this is a map showing the extent

so vast this is a map showing the extent of agriculture on the planet today it’s

of agriculture on the planet today it’s

of agriculture on the planet today it’s about 38% right now of all the land

about 38% right now of all the land

about 38% right now of all the land there is on earth if you were to double

there is on earth if you were to double

there is on earth if you were to double the amount of food grown in the world if

the amount of food grown in the world if

the amount of food grown in the world if you were to try to do that you would run

you were to try to do that you would run

you were to try to do that you would run out of land very quickly that could ever

out of land very quickly that could ever

out of land very quickly that could ever grow anything and right now we’re even

grow anything and right now we’re even

grow anything and right now we’re even putting pressure

putting pressure

putting pressure on tropical rainforest which is a huge

on tropical rainforest which is a huge

on tropical rainforest which is a huge environmental problem also agriculture

environmental problem also agriculture

environmental problem also agriculture is by far the biggest consumer of water

is by far the biggest consumer of water

is by far the biggest consumer of water on the planet of even what we call water

on the planet of even what we call water

on the planet of even what we call water withdrawals it’s 70% of all the water we

withdrawals it’s 70% of all the water we

withdrawals it’s 70% of all the water we move on the planet is used for one thing

move on the planet is used for one thing

move on the planet is used for one thing irrigating crops so we use much of the

irrigating crops so we use much of the

irrigating crops so we use much of the world’s land most of our water and even

world’s land most of our water and even

world’s land most of our water and even the contributions to climate change are

the contributions to climate change are

the contributions to climate change are very large when it comes from

very large when it comes from

very large when it comes from agriculture usually we think of climate

agriculture usually we think of climate

agriculture usually we think of climate change is purely a problem of energy and

change is purely a problem of energy and

change is purely a problem of energy and burning fossil fuels and it largely is

burning fossil fuels and it largely is

burning fossil fuels and it largely is but it turns out once again agriculture

but it turns out once again agriculture

but it turns out once again agriculture looms large about 30% of all the

looms large about 30% of all the

looms large about 30% of all the contributions to climate change that we

contributions to climate change that we

contributions to climate change that we produce as a civilization come from

produce as a civilization come from

produce as a civilization come from agriculture mostly from deforestation

agriculture mostly from deforestation

agriculture mostly from deforestation methane produced by cattle and rice

methane produced by cattle and rice

methane produced by cattle and rice fields and nitrous oxide when we over

fields and nitrous oxide when we over

fields and nitrous oxide when we over fertilize our fields so in this article

fertilize our fields so in this article

fertilize our fields so in this article we kind of talked about those three big

we kind of talked about those three big

we kind of talked about those three big problems and again there are many more

problems and again there are many more

problems and again there are many more we’re just starting the conversation

we’re just starting the conversation

we’re just starting the conversation this is just a beginning and we talked

this is just a beginning and we talked

this is just a beginning and we talked about five kind of areas where you might

about five kind of areas where you might

about five kind of areas where you might begin to explore some solutions again

begin to explore some solutions again

begin to explore some solutions again there are more solutions here too but

there are more solutions here too but

there are more solutions here too but here are some to maybe start the

here are some to maybe start the

here are some to maybe start the conversation with one that we talked

conversation with one that we talked

conversation with one that we talked about a lot was the need to really stop

about a lot was the need to really stop

about a lot was the need to really stop deforestation the clearing of land

deforestation the clearing of land

deforestation the clearing of land that’s rich in biodiversity rich in

that’s rich in biodiversity rich in

that’s rich in biodiversity rich in carbon and rich with water and clearing

carbon and rich with water and clearing

carbon and rich with water and clearing those to produce food mainly for the

those to produce food mainly for the

those to produce food mainly for the world’s middle class not the world’s

world’s middle class not the world’s

world’s middle class not the world’s poor is a bad trade-off it’s bad for the

poor is a bad trade-off it’s bad for the

poor is a bad trade-off it’s bad for the environment and it’s not really

environment and it’s not really

environment and it’s not really contributing to food security so this is

contributing to food security so this is

contributing to food security so this is kind of a lose-lose proposition what can

kind of a lose-lose proposition what can

kind of a lose-lose proposition what can we do if we avoid deforestation can we

we do if we avoid deforestation can we

we do if we avoid deforestation can we grow more nutrition and deliver more

grow more nutrition and deliver more

grow more nutrition and deliver more nutrition on the land we already have or

nutrition on the land we already have or

nutrition on the land we already have or even better yet could we do it on even

even better yet could we do it on even

even better yet could we do it on even less land and restore some into nature

less land and restore some into nature

less land and restore some into nature well it turns out there are

well it turns out there are

well it turns out there are opportunities to do this we talk a lot

opportunities to do this we talk a lot

opportunities to do this we talk a lot about this in agriculture today the idea

about this in agriculture today the idea

about this in agriculture today the idea of yield gaps that there are many places

of yield gaps that there are many places

of yield gaps that there are many places in the world some due to poverty and

in the world some due to poverty and

in the world some due to poverty and institutions some due to governance

institutions some due to governance

institutions some due to governance issues where yields could be much higher

issues where yields could be much higher

issues where yields could be much higher than they are today and those could be

than they are today and those could be

than they are today and those could be achieved I think through very simple

achieved I think through very simple

achieved I think through very simple practices often the kind of organic and

practices often the kind of organic and

practices often the kind of organic and agroecology kinds of practices would

agroecology kinds of practices would

agroecology kinds of practices would maybe be the best way to begin to close

maybe be the best way to begin to close

maybe be the best way to begin to close those yield gaps using very appropriate

those yield gaps using very appropriate

those yield gaps using very appropriate and local technologies keeping small

and local technologies keeping small

and local technologies keeping small holders on the farm

holders on the farm

holders on the farm and empowering them to do better that’s

and empowering them to do better that’s

and empowering them to do better that’s something a lot of our panelists will

something a lot of our panelists will

something a lot of our panelists will talk more about later I’m sure

talk more about later I’m sure

talk more about later I’m sure we also have to get vastly more

we also have to get vastly more

we also have to get vastly more efficient with our modes of production

efficient with our modes of production

efficient with our modes of production though we use enormous amounts of

though we use enormous amounts of

though we use enormous amounts of resources especially chemicals and as I

resources especially chemicals and as I

resources especially chemicals and as I mentioned before water to produce food

mentioned before water to produce food

mentioned before water to produce food and the so called Green Revolution

and the so called Green Revolution

and the so called Green Revolution produced more food but using more

produced more food but using more

produced more food but using more chemicals more energy more water and

chemicals more energy more water and

chemicals more energy more water and more machines now we’re learning that

more machines now we’re learning that

more machines now we’re learning that that was maybe temporarily good for

that was maybe temporarily good for

that was maybe temporarily good for producing food but long term very bad

producing food but long term very bad

producing food but long term very bad for the environment so how do we produce

for the environment so how do we produce

for the environment so how do we produce more nutrition but with less water or

more nutrition but with less water or

more nutrition but with less water or less chemicals and that’s something

less chemicals and that’s something

less chemicals and that’s something where again a lot of work can be done

where again a lot of work can be done

where again a lot of work can be done both on the kind of high tech and low

both on the kind of high tech and low

both on the kind of high tech and low tech ends of the spectrum and I think we

tech ends of the spectrum and I think we

tech ends of the spectrum and I think we have a lot to learn from organic and

have a lot to learn from organic and

have a lot to learn from organic and conventional agriculture and others that

conventional agriculture and others that

conventional agriculture and others that could be shared across the spectrum

could be shared across the spectrum

could be shared across the spectrum finally though it gets back to this

finally though it gets back to this

finally though it gets back to this issue can we double the amount of food

issue can we double the amount of food

issue can we double the amount of food by mid-century I don’t believe that we

by mid-century I don’t believe that we

by mid-century I don’t believe that we can you all member Sarah Palin right I

can you all member Sarah Palin right I

can you all member Sarah Palin right I mean who could forget right you know she

mean who could forget right you know she

mean who could forget right you know she would shout drill baby drill when asked

would shout drill baby drill when asked

would shout drill baby drill when asked about her energy policy and I think our

about her energy policy and I think our

about her energy policy and I think our policies in the world have been kind of

policies in the world have been kind of

policies in the world have been kind of grow baby grow when it comes to food but

grow baby grow when it comes to food but

grow baby grow when it comes to food but like energy there is another side of the

like energy there is another side of the

like energy there is another side of the equation you can yell insulate baby

equation you can yell insulate baby

equation you can yell insulate baby insulate or maybe don’t throw that away

insulate or maybe don’t throw that away

insulate or maybe don’t throw that away don’t throw that it mo doesn’t fit on a

don’t throw that it mo doesn’t fit on a

don’t throw that it mo doesn’t fit on a bumper sticker but you know what I’m

bumper sticker but you know what I’m

bumper sticker but you know what I’m saying we have a supply-side solution

saying we have a supply-side solution

saying we have a supply-side solution but we also have demand-side solutions

but we also have demand-side solutions

but we also have demand-side solutions so we could feed 10 billion people

so we could feed 10 billion people

so we could feed 10 billion people probably today if we had no food waste

probably today if we had no food waste

probably today if we had no food waste and everyone and we’re vegan well that’s

and everyone and we’re vegan well that’s

and everyone and we’re vegan well that’s not gonna happen right away but clearly

not gonna happen right away but clearly

not gonna happen right away but clearly changing diets biofuels and food waste

changing diets biofuels and food waste

changing diets biofuels and food waste eating away at the demand making us

eating away at the demand making us

eating away at the demand making us smarter with the food we already grow

smarter with the food we already grow

smarter with the food we already grow might be a good solution

might be a good solution

might be a good solution Emily Cassady who’s in the audience was

Emily Cassady who’s in the audience was

Emily Cassady who’s in the audience was a former student mind who did this

a former student mind who did this

a former student mind who did this wonderful studies showing how much of

wonderful studies showing how much of

wonderful studies showing how much of what we grow actually feeds people a

what we grow actually feeds people a

what we grow actually feeds people a version of this also appears in the

version of this also appears in the

version of this also appears in the magazine the green world feeds people

magazine the green world feeds people

magazine the green world feeds people this is China India Africa the

this is China India Africa the

this is China India Africa the Mediterranean California through most of

Mediterranean California through most of

Mediterranean California through most of Latin America this is where crops are

Latin America this is where crops are

Latin America this is where crops are grown and fed directly to people rice

grown and fed directly to people rice

grown and fed directly to people rice wheat fruits vegetables roots and tubers

wheat fruits vegetables roots and tubers

wheat fruits vegetables roots and tubers so on and so forth the red world

so on and so forth the red world

so on and so forth the red world primarily feeds animals and in some

primarily feeds animals and in some

primarily feeds animals and in some cases cars we do eat those animals but

cases cars we do eat those animals but

cases cars we do eat those animals but as Dennis mentioned before it is not a

as Dennis mentioned before it is not a

as Dennis mentioned before it is not a hundred percent efficient

hundred percent efficient

hundred percent efficient so ever you see red is a place you’re

so ever you see red is a place you’re

so ever you see red is a place you’re getting meat but you also maybe have an

getting meat but you also maybe have an

getting meat but you also maybe have an opportunity to get more food if we

opportunity to get more food if we

opportunity to get more food if we changed our diets and biofuel strategies

changed our diets and biofuel strategies

changed our diets and biofuel strategies a little bit where’s there some room

a little bit where’s there some room

a little bit where’s there some room there furthermore on top of this whether

there furthermore on top of this whether

there furthermore on top of this whether it’s meat or plant-based diets we have

it’s meat or plant-based diets we have

it’s meat or plant-based diets we have about thirty to fifty percent of the

about thirty to fifty percent of the

about thirty to fifty percent of the world’s food is never consumed and

world’s food is never consumed and

world’s food is never consumed and that’s in rich countries and poor

that’s in rich countries and poor

that’s in rich countries and poor countries what can we do to reduce food

countries what can we do to reduce food

countries what can we do to reduce food waste which is actually I think the

waste which is actually I think the

waste which is actually I think the biggest opportunity to address our food

biggest opportunity to address our food

biggest opportunity to address our food and environment challenges going into

and environment challenges going into

and environment challenges going into the future

the future

the future so those were five kind of appetizers no

so those were five kind of appetizers no

so those were five kind of appetizers no pun intended to get some conversations

pun intended to get some conversations

pun intended to get some conversations started about where might we look for

started about where might we look for

started about where might we look for solutions to this kind of nexus of

solutions to this kind of nexus of

solutions to this kind of nexus of challenge between agricultural

challenge between agricultural

challenge between agricultural developments food security and

developments food security and

developments food security and environmental sustainability there are

environmental sustainability there are

environmental sustainability there are more and this is the beginning of a

more and this is the beginning of a

more and this is the beginning of a conversation certainly not the end but

conversation certainly not the end but

conversation certainly not the end but what I want to leave you with is not the

what I want to leave you with is not the

what I want to leave you with is not the usual doom and gloom

usual doom and gloom

usual doom and gloom you know I’m an environmental guy right

you know I’m an environmental guy right

you know I’m an environmental guy right usually you don’t invite people like me

usually you don’t invite people like me

usually you don’t invite people like me to parties because we will scare the

to parties because we will scare the

to parties because we will scare the hell out of you right so what I want to

hell out of you right so what I want to

hell out of you right so what I want to stress here is we do actually have the

stress here is we do actually have the

stress here is we do actually have the capacity right now to do a much better

capacity right now to do a much better

capacity right now to do a much better job with food security and the

job with food security and the

job with food security and the environment we can address the future of

environment we can address the future of

environment we can address the future of food and I think we can do that best

food and I think we can do that best

food and I think we can do that best when we have these conversations that

when we have these conversations that

when we have these conversations that bring us together rather than the

bring us together rather than the

bring us together rather than the terrorists apart when we kind of combine

terrorists apart when we kind of combine

terrorists apart when we kind of combine our tools and strategies and look for

our tools and strategies and look for

our tools and strategies and look for commonality but the good news is we can

commonality but the good news is we can

commonality but the good news is we can actually feed the world and sustain the

actually feed the world and sustain the

actually feed the world and sustain the planet it’s gonna require some new ways

planet it’s gonna require some new ways

planet it’s gonna require some new ways of thinking and I think new ways of

of thinking and I think new ways of

of thinking and I think new ways of collaborating which I would argue is key

collaborating which I would argue is key

collaborating which I would argue is key and it’s really time for us to get to

and it’s really time for us to get to

and it’s really time for us to get to work and continue that conversation and

work and continue that conversation and

work and continue that conversation and take it out into the fields and into our

take it out into the fields and into our

take it out into the fields and into our kitchens and see what we can do thanks

kitchens and see what we can do thanks

kitchens and see what we can do thanks very much