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The Uncertainty of Refugee Statistics | Funda Ustek | TEDxUCLWomen


we’re surrounded by data this gives us

we’re surrounded by data this gives us the impression that we know about the

the impression that we know about the

the impression that we know about the world more than we ever did before and

world more than we ever did before and

world more than we ever did before and that everything we have data for is more

that everything we have data for is more

that everything we have data for is more certain more tangible but once we have

certain more tangible but once we have

certain more tangible but once we have data we rarely questioned what it makes

data we rarely questioned what it makes

data we rarely questioned what it makes it what what it makes invisible while

it what what it makes invisible while

it what what it makes invisible while making other things visible I’m a

making other things visible I’m a

making other things visible I’m a sociologist and I’m interested in

sociologist and I’m interested in

sociologist and I’m interested in studying people who go missing in data I

studying people who go missing in data I

studying people who go missing in data I do not mean missing in the sense that

do not mean missing in the sense that

do not mean missing in the sense that they don’t get counted though sometimes

they don’t get counted though sometimes

they don’t get counted though sometimes this is the case but missing in

this is the case but missing in

this is the case but missing in categories missing in representation I’m

categories missing in representation I’m

categories missing in representation I’m interested in studying this both from

interested in studying this both from

interested in studying this both from the point of the people who think their

the point of the people who think their

the point of the people who think their voices do not get hurt or they do not

voices do not get hurt or they do not

voices do not get hurt or they do not fit in today tiny categories in the

fit in today tiny categories in the

fit in today tiny categories in the survey forms but I’m also interested in

survey forms but I’m also interested in

survey forms but I’m also interested in studying this from the point of the data

studying this from the point of the data

studying this from the point of the data producers who talk about groups that are

producers who talk about groups that are

producers who talk about groups that are difficult to count and characteristics

difficult to count and characteristics

difficult to count and characteristics that are difficult to account for but

that are difficult to account for but

that are difficult to account for but sometimes even the most trivial and the

sometimes even the most trivial and the

sometimes even the most trivial and the most mundane may be uncertain and data

most mundane may be uncertain and data

most mundane may be uncertain and data in many ways my own personal story has

in many ways my own personal story has

in many ways my own personal story has been learning about the uncertainties in

been learning about the uncertainties in

been learning about the uncertainties in what seemed like certainties um I come

what seemed like certainties um I come

what seemed like certainties um I come from Turkey and although we do have a

from Turkey and although we do have a

from Turkey and although we do have a registration system in our family there

registration system in our family there

registration system in our family there are three people whose birth dates we’re

are three people whose birth dates we’re

are three people whose birth dates we’re not so sure about and this is my

not so sure about and this is my

not so sure about and this is my grandmother my father and my aunt they

grandmother my father and my aunt they

grandmother my father and my aunt they were all registered at a point when they

were all registered at a point when they

were all registered at a point when they needed to my grandmother was a

needed to my grandmother was a

needed to my grandmother was a registered before she got married and my

registered before she got married and my

registered before she got married and my father was registered before he started

father was registered before he started

father was registered before he started school and my aunt was registered just

school and my aunt was registered just

school and my aunt was registered just because my father was being registered

because my father was being registered

because my father was being registered but we don’t know about the exact

but we don’t know about the exact

but we don’t know about the exact birthdate month or year we have an

birthdate month or year we have an

birthdate month or year we have an estimate that looks like a certainty in

estimate that looks like a certainty in

estimate that looks like a certainty in data I’ll come back to this point paying

data I’ll come back to this point paying

data I’ll come back to this point paying attention to uncertainties are important

attention to uncertainties are important

attention to uncertainties are important because once social realities are made

because once social realities are made

because once social realities are made into

into

into later it becomes difficult to undo their

later it becomes difficult to undo their

later it becomes difficult to undo their impact and leave the lenses behind leave

impact and leave the lenses behind leave

impact and leave the lenses behind leave the lenses data gives us behind this

the lenses data gives us behind this

the lenses data gives us behind this might sound like an obvious point to

might sound like an obvious point to

might sound like an obvious point to make but we often do not see have the

make but we often do not see have the

make but we often do not see have the cultural social and other political

cultural social and other political

cultural social and other political codes enter our data one important

codes enter our data one important

codes enter our data one important example of this is refugee statistics

example of this is refugee statistics

example of this is refugee statistics refugee statistics are widely quoted but

refugee statistics are widely quoted but

refugee statistics are widely quoted but notoriously inaccurate the so-called

notoriously inaccurate the so-called

notoriously inaccurate the so-called refugee crisis has been a hot topic for

refugee crisis has been a hot topic for

refugee crisis has been a hot topic for almost five years now the information we

almost five years now the information we

almost five years now the information we get in popular media about refugees and

get in popular media about refugees and

get in popular media about refugees and about migrants is at best puzzling on

about migrants is at best puzzling on

about migrants is at best puzzling on the one hand it’s a crisis made by the

the one hand it’s a crisis made by the

the one hand it’s a crisis made by the unmanageable T of numbers but on the

unmanageable T of numbers but on the

unmanageable T of numbers but on the other hand it’s an humanitarian crisis

other hand it’s an humanitarian crisis

other hand it’s an humanitarian crisis made by the same very large numbers but

made by the same very large numbers but

made by the same very large numbers but most often when you compare numbers

most often when you compare numbers

most often when you compare numbers across news newspapers official accounts

across news newspapers official accounts

across news newspapers official accounts numbers really match if at all it also

numbers really match if at all it also

numbers really match if at all it also becomes confusing a trace who sites

becomes confusing a trace who sites

becomes confusing a trace who sites whose data and based on what definitions

whose data and based on what definitions

whose data and based on what definitions and estimations the question of who’s a

and estimations the question of who’s a

and estimations the question of who’s a refugee become opaque in data with

refugee become opaque in data with

refugee become opaque in data with value-laden statements about who is

value-laden statements about who is

value-laden statements about who is deserving and who is not deserving and

deserving and who is not deserving and

deserving and who is not deserving and how we can clinically verify deserving

how we can clinically verify deserving

how we can clinically verify deserving pneus when for instance we talk about

pneus when for instance we talk about

pneus when for instance we talk about child refugees the difference between

child refugees the difference between

child refugees the difference between age 18 and age 19 gained profound

age 18 and age 19 gained profound

age 18 and age 19 gained profound importance calculation mistakes of

importance calculation mistakes of

importance calculation mistakes of registration personal or unknown or

registration personal or unknown or

registration personal or unknown or unprovable birth dates then become

unprovable birth dates then become

unprovable birth dates then become evidence for undeserving pneus of the

evidence for undeserving pneus of the

evidence for undeserving pneus of the refugee status can we ever then talk

refugee status can we ever then talk

refugee status can we ever then talk about accurate refugee statistics to

about accurate refugee statistics to

about accurate refugee statistics to talk about accuracy of refugee

talk about accuracy of refugee

talk about accuracy of refugee statistics we need to understand the

statistics we need to understand the

statistics we need to understand the interests in ames behind collecting them

interests in ames behind collecting them

interests in ames behind collecting them there are multiple reasons for

there are multiple reasons for

there are multiple reasons for collecting refugee statistics the most

collecting refugee statistics the most

collecting refugee statistics the most common being the allocation of resources

common being the allocation of resources

common being the allocation of resources in any refugee crisis knowing or at

in any refugee crisis knowing or at

in any refugee crisis knowing or at least estimating the number of people

least estimating the number of people

least estimating the number of people involved is one of the first steps in

involved is one of the first steps in

involved is one of the first steps in determining responses to the situation

determining responses to the situation

determining responses to the situation neighborhood countries might set up camp

neighborhood countries might set up camp

neighborhood countries might set up camp humanitarian agencies might organize

humanitarian agencies might organize

humanitarian agencies might organize emergency aids and international bodies

emergency aids and international bodies

emergency aids and international bodies might evaluate the situation to come up

might evaluate the situation to come up

might evaluate the situation to come up with appropriate responses and these all

with appropriate responses and these all

with appropriate responses and these all require data they all require numbers

require data they all require numbers

require data they all require numbers but then once these data are made they

but then once these data are made they

but then once these data are made they are taken as evidence as for everything

are taken as evidence as for everything

are taken as evidence as for everything and the allocation of refugees to

and the allocation of refugees to

and the allocation of refugees to individual countries all humanitarian

individual countries all humanitarian

individual countries all humanitarian aid are then made from those numbers

aid are then made from those numbers

aid are then made from those numbers although the reasons for collecting

although the reasons for collecting

although the reasons for collecting refugee statistics might seem

refugee statistics might seem

refugee statistics might seem straightforward the actual task of who

straightforward the actual task of who

straightforward the actual task of who should be counted as refugee is not very

should be counted as refugee is not very

should be counted as refugee is not very obvious first we have the problem of

obvious first we have the problem of

obvious first we have the problem of definitions who is a refugee while there

definitions who is a refugee while there

definitions who is a refugee while there are international agreements most

are international agreements most

are international agreements most notably the 1951 Geneva Convention which

notably the 1951 Geneva Convention which

notably the 1951 Geneva Convention which gets frequently cited the disagreements

gets frequently cited the disagreements

gets frequently cited the disagreements in the interpretation application and

in the interpretation application and

in the interpretation application and limitations imposed on this convent

limitations imposed on this convent

limitations imposed on this convent convention based on owned by individual

convention based on owned by individual

convention based on owned by individual countries rarely get discussed as a

countries rarely get discussed as a

countries rarely get discussed as a result we deal with multiplicity of

result we deal with multiplicity of

result we deal with multiplicity of categories multiplicity of definitions

categories multiplicity of definitions

categories multiplicity of definitions seconds statistics are gathered by

seconds statistics are gathered by

seconds statistics are gathered by technocratic means and there are usually

technocratic means and there are usually

technocratic means and there are usually many bodies involved which sometimes do

many bodies involved which sometimes do

many bodies involved which sometimes do not agree on who should be included in

not agree on who should be included in

not agree on who should be included in the definition this is why it is

the definition this is why it is

the definition this is why it is possible to hear about three different

possible to hear about three different

possible to hear about three different counts from the same countries different

counts from the same countries different

counts from the same countries different institutions as well as three different

institutions as well as three different

institutions as well as three different organizations working within the same

organizations working within the same

organizations working within the same country and coming up with different

country and coming up with different

country and coming up with different numbers refugee statistics are therefore

numbers refugee statistics are therefore

numbers refugee statistics are therefore an arena of struggle and reflect

an arena of struggle and reflect

an arena of struggle and reflect interests of the parties involved

interests of the parties involved

interests of the parties involved putting a definition definitional issues

putting a definition definitional issues

putting a definition definitional issues aside there are also multiple and

aside there are also multiple and

aside there are also multiple and sometimes conflicting conflicting

sometimes conflicting conflicting

sometimes conflicting conflicting interests in including and excluding or

interests in including and excluding or

interests in including and excluding or in seeking to be included or excluded

in seeking to be included or excluded

in seeking to be included or excluded from refugee statistics refugees for

from refugee statistics refugees for

from refugee statistics refugees for instance might seek to be counted if

instance might seek to be counted if

instance might seek to be counted if being counted involves assistance and

being counted involves assistance and

being counted involves assistance and security but why the same logic they

security but why the same logic they

security but why the same logic they might seek to defer being counted until

might seek to defer being counted until

might seek to defer being counted until they reach a destination where they can

they reach a destination where they can

they reach a destination where they can access security and and assistance

access security and and assistance

access security and and assistance convention status or the refugee status

convention status or the refugee status

convention status or the refugee status is a special status with an Internet

is a special status with an Internet

is a special status with an Internet law and grants important rights and

law and grants important rights and

law and grants important rights and privileges to those who receive it

privileges to those who receive it

privileges to those who receive it however not all asylum applications are

however not all asylum applications are

however not all asylum applications are successful and this might be a reason

successful and this might be a reason

successful and this might be a reason for going missing in data in other cases

for going missing in data in other cases

for going missing in data in other cases refugees might be exaggerating their

refugees might be exaggerating their

refugees might be exaggerating their household sizes so that they gain as

household sizes so that they gain as

household sizes so that they gain as much assistance as possible to help

much assistance as possible to help

much assistance as possible to help those who they know that they will not

those who they know that they will not

those who they know that they will not be able to get the same assistance the

be able to get the same assistance the

be able to get the same assistance the possibility of doing DS is higher in

possibility of doing DS is higher in

possibility of doing DS is higher in some context than others but the main

some context than others but the main

some context than others but the main issue here is that people do shape their

issue here is that people do shape their

issue here is that people do shape their existence in data if and whenever they

existence in data if and whenever they

existence in data if and whenever they can host sites might also have their own

can host sites might also have their own

can host sites might also have their own reasons for counting refugees and their

reasons for counting refugees and their

reasons for counting refugees and their own techniques the arrival of refugees

own techniques the arrival of refugees

own techniques the arrival of refugees without any resources and in need of

without any resources and in need of

without any resources and in need of immediate assistance is a big challenge

immediate assistance is a big challenge

immediate assistance is a big challenge for all countries especially the poor

for all countries especially the poor

for all countries especially the poor neighboring countries and conflict zones

neighboring countries and conflict zones

neighboring countries and conflict zones given that whatever assistance the

given that whatever assistance the

given that whatever assistance the states will be getting will be in direct

states will be getting will be in direct

states will be getting will be in direct proportion to the refugees they’re

proportion to the refugees they’re

proportion to the refugees they’re hosting they might be inflating their

hosting they might be inflating their

hosting they might be inflating their numbers but the same countries might

numbers but the same countries might

numbers but the same countries might also be reducing the numbers they report

also be reducing the numbers they report

also be reducing the numbers they report if they won’t if they would like to give

if they won’t if they would like to give

if they won’t if they would like to give the impression that displaced people

the impression that displaced people

the impression that displaced people that the situation is not long-term and

that the situation is not long-term and

that the situation is not long-term and a displacement will not be for a long

a displacement will not be for a long

a displacement will not be for a long time and the people are expected to go

time and the people are expected to go

time and the people are expected to go back to their countries and

back to their countries and

back to their countries and international and international

international and international

international and international humanitarian agencies might have their

humanitarian agencies might have their

humanitarian agencies might have their own reasons with refugee statistics

own reasons with refugee statistics

own reasons with refugee statistics especially if they are funded by

especially if they are funded by

especially if they are funded by donations and do not have stable sources

donations and do not have stable sources

donations and do not have stable sources of income given that their success rates

of income given that their success rates

of income given that their success rates are based on how they manage the numbers

are based on how they manage the numbers

are based on how they manage the numbers they might increase or reduce their

they might increase or reduce their

they might increase or reduce their numbers to prove that their day they are

numbers to prove that their day they are

numbers to prove that their day they are funding has been successful or not own

funding has been successful or not own

funding has been successful or not own has been successful and last but not

has been successful and last but not

has been successful and last but not least one thing we don’t necessarily

least one thing we don’t necessarily

least one thing we don’t necessarily hear about when we discuss refugee

hear about when we discuss refugee

hear about when we discuss refugee statistics is the ethics of data

statistics is the ethics of data

statistics is the ethics of data collection when we talk about official

collection when we talk about official

collection when we talk about official statistics we expect that people’s data

statistics we expect that people’s data

statistics we expect that people’s data are protected and they are treated

are protected and they are treated

are protected and they are treated fairly and ethically throughout the data

fairly and ethically throughout the data

fairly and ethically throughout the data collection we also expect that

collection we also expect that

collection we also expect that enumerators and interviewers are

enumerators and interviewers are

enumerators and interviewers are safe and they do not experience any harm

safe and they do not experience any harm

safe and they do not experience any harm however in the context of refugee

however in the context of refugee

however in the context of refugee security concerns are a really important

security concerns are a really important

security concerns are a really important important so does the country’s allowing

important so does the country’s allowing

important so does the country’s allowing independent enumerators to come in and

independent enumerators to come in and

independent enumerators to come in and observe and count and make their

observe and count and make their

observe and count and make their estimates it is not impossible to

estimates it is not impossible to

estimates it is not impossible to imagine that in certain contexts when

imagine that in certain contexts when

imagine that in certain contexts when the conflict is still going and the

the conflict is still going and the

the conflict is still going and the places are not safe same persons might

places are not safe same persons might

places are not safe same persons might be counted double and some people might

be counted double and some people might

be counted double and some people might not be counted at all and it’s also

not be counted at all and it’s also

not be counted at all and it’s also possible to imagine that there might be

possible to imagine that there might be

possible to imagine that there might be a rough estimates about people’s

a rough estimates about people’s

a rough estimates about people’s characteristics such as their age

characteristics such as their age

characteristics such as their age educational attainment occupation or

educational attainment occupation or

educational attainment occupation or country of origin seeing a number is not

country of origin seeing a number is not

country of origin seeing a number is not the same as hearing someone’s story and

the same as hearing someone’s story and

the same as hearing someone’s story and among all the uncertainties of refugees

among all the uncertainties of refugees

among all the uncertainties of refugees statistics it is easy to get caught up

statistics it is easy to get caught up

statistics it is easy to get caught up with making statistics more accurate but

with making statistics more accurate but

with making statistics more accurate but forgetting the very conditions that make

forgetting the very conditions that make

forgetting the very conditions that make refugee statistics so uncertain the

refugee statistics so uncertain the

refugee statistics so uncertain the story of Island Corday the boy who

story of Island Corday the boy who

story of Island Corday the boy who washed ashore in Turkey was a breaking

washed ashore in Turkey was a breaking

washed ashore in Turkey was a breaking point in that regard or the survival

point in that regard or the survival

point in that regard or the survival story of Noah from a sunk boat which

story of Noah from a sunk boat which

story of Noah from a sunk boat which cost lives to 500 people from mare

cost lives to 500 people from mare

cost lives to 500 people from mare numbers refugees became suddenly lives

numbers refugees became suddenly lives

numbers refugees became suddenly lives with past and lost possible features it

with past and lost possible features it

with past and lost possible features it is important to pay attention to what we

is important to pay attention to what we

is important to pay attention to what we lose when we reduce the stories two

lose when we reduce the stories two

lose when we reduce the stories two numbers we’re also rounded by data more

numbers we’re also rounded by data more

numbers we’re also rounded by data more than ever before and we have access to

than ever before and we have access to

than ever before and we have access to information more than we ever before but

information more than we ever before but

information more than we ever before but we need to start talking about the

we need to start talking about the

we need to start talking about the missing persons and the missing stories

missing persons and the missing stories

missing persons and the missing stories in our data looking at refugee

in our data looking at refugee

in our data looking at refugee statistics is just one way of doing that

statistics is just one way of doing that

statistics is just one way of doing that it’s only when our worlds intersect with

it’s only when our worlds intersect with

it’s only when our worlds intersect with the stories we do not say and listen on

the stories we do not say and listen on

the stories we do not say and listen on a usual basis then we can imagine all

a usual basis then we can imagine all

a usual basis then we can imagine all the possible worlds and perhaps much

the possible worlds and perhaps much

the possible worlds and perhaps much better ones thank you

better ones thank you

better ones thank you [Applause]

[Applause]

[Applause] you

you

you [Music]

”

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