hi thanks for having me that’s a tough act to follow he did a fantastic job
act to follow he did a fantastic job
act to follow he did a fantastic job yeah my name is Dean Carlson
yeah my name is Dean Carlson
yeah my name is Dean Carlson I’m from Wiberg farm I wanted to talk to
I’m from Wiberg farm I wanted to talk to
I’m from Wiberg farm I wanted to talk to you today about the impossibility of
you today about the impossibility of
you today about the impossibility of infinite exponential growth
infinite exponential growth
infinite exponential growth why that’s impossible in a finite world
why that’s impossible in a finite world
why that’s impossible in a finite world and what that could possibly have to do
and what that could possibly have to do
and what that could possibly have to do with farming
with farming
with farming um I guess if you’d ask my friends and
um I guess if you’d ask my friends and
um I guess if you’d ask my friends and family ten years ago they would have
family ten years ago they would have
family ten years ago they would have said I was the least likely person to be
said I was the least likely person to be
said I was the least likely person to be talking to you about this topic I
talking to you about this topic I
talking to you about this topic I graduated from the University of Chicago
graduated from the University of Chicago
graduated from the University of Chicago with a degree in economics like they
with a degree in economics like they
with a degree in economics like they said I went to work on Wall Street for
said I went to work on Wall Street for
said I went to work on Wall Street for 15 years as a bond and derivatives
15 years as a bond and derivatives
15 years as a bond and derivatives trader and I had no background
trader and I had no background
trader and I had no background whatsoever in agriculture but I just
whatsoever in agriculture but I just
whatsoever in agriculture but I just became interested in overtime one of the
became interested in overtime one of the
became interested in overtime one of the things that always bothered me in
things that always bothered me in
things that always bothered me in finance and our economy in general was
finance and our economy in general was
finance and our economy in general was the fact that we always had to be
the fact that we always had to be
the fact that we always had to be growing I didn’t understand why it
growing I didn’t understand why it
growing I didn’t understand why it wasn’t good enough for us to reach as a
wasn’t good enough for us to reach as a
wasn’t good enough for us to reach as a society that we would be rich enough why
society that we would be rich enough why
society that we would be rich enough why did we continue to have to grow all the
did we continue to have to grow all the
did we continue to have to grow all the time
time
time and I guess one of the problems with
and I guess one of the problems with
and I guess one of the problems with that or one of the reasons for that is
that or one of the reasons for that is
that or one of the reasons for that is that we always have this intention to
that we always have this intention to
that we always have this intention to focus on things in the present rather
focus on things in the present rather
focus on things in the present rather than the future you know that probably
than the future you know that probably
than the future you know that probably comes from our hunter-gatherer brain
comes from our hunter-gatherer brain
comes from our hunter-gatherer brain that we were incentivized to think about
that we were incentivized to think about
that we were incentivized to think about things now rather than later I’m even in
things now rather than later I’m even in
things now rather than later I’m even in finance that’s true you learn one of the
finance that’s true you learn one of the
finance that’s true you learn one of the first things that you learn is to
first things that you learn is to
first things that you learn is to discount the value of things in the
discount the value of things in the
discount the value of things in the future back to a present value and if
future back to a present value and if
future back to a present value and if you take things that far enough out into
you take things that far enough out into
you take things that far enough out into the future they became they become
the future they became they become
the future they became they become virtually worthless and it’s this
virtually worthless and it’s this
virtually worthless and it’s this problem I think that helps or causes us
problem I think that helps or causes us
problem I think that helps or causes us to miss the implications of exponential
to miss the implications of exponential
to miss the implications of exponential growth so what is exponential growth dr.
growth so what is exponential growth dr.
growth so what is exponential growth dr. Albert Bartlett a professor emeritus at
Albert Bartlett a professor emeritus at
Albert Bartlett a professor emeritus at Colorado State University has said the
Colorado State University has said the
Colorado State University has said the greatest shortcoming of the human race
greatest shortcoming of the human race
greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the
is our inability to understand the
is our inability to understand the exponential function the exponential
exponential function the exponential
exponential function the exponential function is simply a constant rate of
function is simply a constant rate of
function is simply a constant rate of growth on a continuously growing base
growth on a continuously growing base
growth on a continuously growing base over a period of time it’d be impossible
over a period of time it’d be impossible
over a period of time it’d be impossible to turn on the TV look at a newspaper
to turn on the TV look at a newspaper
to turn on the TV look at a newspaper without seeing some reference to this
without seeing some reference to this
without seeing some reference to this kind of growth we assumed the human
kind of growth we assumed the human
kind of growth we assumed the human population will continue to grow at one
population will continue to grow at one
population will continue to grow at one to two percent a year we expect our
to two percent a year we expect our
to two percent a year we expect our economy to grow at three to four percent
economy to grow at three to four percent
economy to grow at three to four percent a year without really understanding what
a year without really understanding what
a year without really understanding what that means so one way to think about or
that means so one way to think about or
that means so one way to think about or to gain an implication from that is to
to gain an implication from that is to
to gain an implication from that is to use what’s called the rule of seventy so
use what’s called the rule of seventy so
use what’s called the rule of seventy so if you take seventy divided by
if you take seventy divided by
if you take seventy divided by an annual growth rate that I’ll tell you
an annual growth rate that I’ll tell you
an annual growth rate that I’ll tell you how long it takes for something to
how long it takes for something to
how long it takes for something to double in size so if you use human
double in size so if you use human
double in size so if you use human population growing at 1% only 1% seems
population growing at 1% only 1% seems
population growing at 1% only 1% seems like nothing but it means if you take 70
like nothing but it means if you take 70
like nothing but it means if you take 70 divided by 1 it would it would double in
divided by 1 it would it would double in
divided by 1 it would it would double in 70 years if human population grew at 2%
70 years if human population grew at 2%
70 years if human population grew at 2% it would double in 35 years and our
it would double in 35 years and our
it would double in 35 years and our economy if it grows it 4 percent it
economy if it grows it 4 percent it
economy if it grows it 4 percent it would dope it would double every 17 and
would dope it would double every 17 and
would dope it would double every 17 and a half years another interesting fact
a half years another interesting fact
a half years another interesting fact about this doubling is that in 10
about this doubling is that in 10
about this doubling is that in 10 doublings the size of something is a
doublings the size of something is a
doublings the size of something is a thousand times larger than at the
thousand times larger than at the
thousand times larger than at the beginning in 20 mm iliyan times larger
beginning in 20 mm iliyan times larger
beginning in 20 mm iliyan times larger so like I said we see this all the time
so like I said we see this all the time
so like I said we see this all the time without really thinking about what it
without really thinking about what it
without really thinking about what it means
means
means one other interesting note about those
one other interesting note about those
one other interesting note about those doublings is in each of the doubling
doublings is in each of the doubling
doublings is in each of the doubling periods the amount of growth is larger
periods the amount of growth is larger
periods the amount of growth is larger than all of the previous growth combined
than all of the previous growth combined
than all of the previous growth combined so if you think about that if we were
so if you think about that if we were
so if you think about that if we were using if the amount of oil we use every
using if the amount of oil we use every
using if the amount of oil we use every year was increasing by 4% that means it
year was increasing by 4% that means it
year was increasing by 4% that means it would double in 17 and a half years that
would double in 17 and a half years that
would double in 17 and a half years that also means that we would have used more
also means that we would have used more
also means that we would have used more oil in that 17 and a half years and all
oil in that 17 and a half years and all
oil in that 17 and a half years and all of humanity had used combined so it’s
of humanity had used combined so it’s
of humanity had used combined so it’s something that obviously has an impact
something that obviously has an impact
something that obviously has an impact on the world that we live in there’s
on the world that we live in there’s
on the world that we live in there’s another interesting example from the sky
another interesting example from the sky
another interesting example from the sky dr. Bartlett that I saw and he has some
dr. Bartlett that I saw and he has some
dr. Bartlett that I saw and he has some really if this is an interesting concept
really if this is an interesting concept
really if this is an interesting concept he had some really cool YouTube videos
he had some really cool YouTube videos
he had some really cool YouTube videos where you can hear more about this
where you can hear more about this
where you can hear more about this but it talks about how time speeds up as
but it talks about how time speeds up as
but it talks about how time speeds up as you move along this exponential curve so
you move along this exponential curve so
you move along this exponential curve so imagine if you will you have a bottle
imagine if you will you have a bottle
imagine if you will you have a bottle that has one bacterium in it bacteria
that has one bacterium in it bacteria
that has one bacterium in it bacteria will divide every minute so that they’ll
will divide every minute so that they’ll
will divide every minute so that they’ll double every minute by twelve O’Clock
double every minute by twelve O’Clock
double every minute by twelve O’Clock starts at eleven o’clock by twelve
starts at eleven o’clock by twelve
starts at eleven o’clock by twelve o’clock the bottle is completely full so
o’clock the bottle is completely full so
o’clock the bottle is completely full so think about if you were living in that
think about if you were living in that
think about if you were living in that bottle at what point you would start to
bottle at what point you would start to
bottle at what point you would start to get nervous that you’re running out of
get nervous that you’re running out of
get nervous that you’re running out of room so at what point would the bottle
room so at what point would the bottle
room so at what point would the bottle be half-full
be half-full
be half-full well that’s easy if you work backwards
well that’s easy if you work backwards
well that’s easy if you work backwards because since it doubles every minute it
because since it doubles every minute it
because since it doubles every minute it would be 11:59 it’d be half-full
would be 11:59 it’d be half-full
would be 11:59 it’d be half-full so in that last minute it doubles but
so in that last minute it doubles but
so in that last minute it doubles but even at 11:55 the bottle is only three
even at 11:55 the bottle is only three
even at 11:55 the bottle is only three percent full and 97% empty so you can
percent full and 97% empty so you can
percent full and 97% empty so you can imagine all the leaders of the bacteria
imagine all the leaders of the bacteria
imagine all the leaders of the bacteria trying to convince you that there’s no
trying to convince you that there’s no
trying to convince you that there’s no problem there’s ninety seven percent of
problem there’s ninety seven percent of
problem there’s ninety seven percent of the bottles left there’s 32 times more
the bottles left there’s 32 times more
the bottles left there’s 32 times more space in the bottle but you only have
space in the bottle but you only have
space in the bottle but you only have five minutes left
five minutes left
five minutes left now imagine that these bacteria because
now imagine that these bacteria because
now imagine that these bacteria because very ingenious bacteria go out and drill
very ingenious bacteria go out and drill
very ingenious bacteria go out and drill in the Arctic they start hydraulically
in the Arctic they start hydraulically
in the Arctic they start hydraulically fracturing the ground to discover three
fracturing the ground to discover three
fracturing the ground to discover three new bottles surely that would buy them a
new bottles surely that would buy them a
new bottles surely that would buy them a lot of extra time but in fact it only
lot of extra time but in fact it only
lot of extra time but in fact it only buys them an extra two minutes to 1202
buys them an extra two minutes to 1202
buys them an extra two minutes to 1202 so the problem isn’t that they can’t
so the problem isn’t that they can’t
so the problem isn’t that they can’t find enough space it’s the problem is
find enough space it’s the problem is
find enough space it’s the problem is that they’re growing so all of these
that they’re growing so all of these
that they’re growing so all of these things are true these graphs that you
things are true these graphs that you
things are true these graphs that you see a human population are true of
see a human population are true of
see a human population are true of natural resource use so we continue to
natural resource use so we continue to
natural resource use so we continue to use more and more natural resource every
use more and more natural resource every
use more and more natural resource every year and the grass of the of their use
year and the grass of the of their use
year and the grass of the of their use looks something like this the most
looks something like this the most
looks something like this the most important ones of those of course are
important ones of those of course are
important ones of those of course are energy our entire civilization our
energy our entire civilization our
energy our entire civilization our entire economies built on using energy
entire economies built on using energy
entire economies built on using energy and we know that most of that is fossil
and we know that most of that is fossil
and we know that most of that is fossil fuels and we know or should know that
fuels and we know or should know that
fuels and we know or should know that that’s a non-renewable source it’s
that’s a non-renewable source it’s
that’s a non-renewable source it’s something that we will run out of we can
something that we will run out of we can
something that we will run out of we can all argue about how much of any one
all argue about how much of any one
all argue about how much of any one natural resource there is but I haven’t
natural resource there is but I haven’t
natural resource there is but I haven’t heard anyone arguing that the size of
heard anyone arguing that the size of
heard anyone arguing that the size of the earth is getting bigger so we have
the earth is getting bigger so we have
the earth is getting bigger so we have to learn to live within the limits
to learn to live within the limits
to learn to live within the limits this is especially true of agriculture
this is especially true of agriculture
this is especially true of agriculture and this is where starts to get into
and this is where starts to get into
and this is where starts to get into sustainable farming if you look at the
sustainable farming if you look at the
sustainable farming if you look at the way that we grow food in this country
way that we grow food in this country
way that we grow food in this country it’s incredibly fossil fuel intensive we
it’s incredibly fossil fuel intensive we
it’s incredibly fossil fuel intensive we use 10 calories of fuel for every
use 10 calories of fuel for every
use 10 calories of fuel for every calorie of food we produce that’s
calorie of food we produce that’s
calorie of food we produce that’s something that we get away with in the
something that we get away with in the
something that we get away with in the short run but it’s something that future
short run but it’s something that future
short run but it’s something that future generations I think will look back and
generations I think will look back and
generations I think will look back and say why did you waste all of our energy
say why did you waste all of our energy
say why did you waste all of our energy just to grow your food
so like I said modern agriculture is the
so like I said modern agriculture is the use of land to convert petroleum into
use of land to convert petroleum into
use of land to convert petroleum into food and that’s the system that we are
food and that’s the system that we are
food and that’s the system that we are in now so what is sustainable farming
in now so what is sustainable farming
in now so what is sustainable farming sustainable farming simply looks to grow
sustainable farming simply looks to grow
sustainable farming simply looks to grow food in a way on a given piece of land
food in a way on a given piece of land
food in a way on a given piece of land that can be repeated over and over
that can be repeated over and over
that can be repeated over and over because it’s not relying on inputs that
because it’s not relying on inputs that
because it’s not relying on inputs that are finite or that are non-renewable
are finite or that are non-renewable
are finite or that are non-renewable sources so basically that’s a grass
sources so basically that’s a grass
sources so basically that’s a grass based system grasses are perennial it
based system grasses are perennial it
based system grasses are perennial it doesn’t have to be replanted every year
doesn’t have to be replanted every year
doesn’t have to be replanted every year by grazing animals across it you’re
by grazing animals across it you’re
by grazing animals across it you’re actually increasing the topsoil if you
actually increasing the topsoil if you
actually increasing the topsoil if you look at modern farming total bull arable
look at modern farming total bull arable
look at modern farming total bull arable farmland in the world is actually
farmland in the world is actually
farmland in the world is actually decreasing due to soil erosion from bad
decreasing due to soil erosion from bad
decreasing due to soil erosion from bad farming practices and even now in the
farming practices and even now in the
farming practices and even now in the modern system after decades of increase
modern system after decades of increase
modern system after decades of increase of crop yields crop yields are starting
of crop yields crop yields are starting
of crop yields crop yields are starting to top out as the plants reach their
to top out as the plants reach their
to top out as the plants reach their biological limits so we’re going to have
biological limits so we’re going to have
biological limits so we’re going to have to find more renewable ways to grow food
to find more renewable ways to grow food
to find more renewable ways to grow food if you think about it in this grass
if you think about it in this grass
if you think about it in this grass based system it’s a in a way it’s like
based system it’s a in a way it’s like
based system it’s a in a way it’s like turning solar energy into human calories
turning solar energy into human calories
turning solar energy into human calories we can’t digest cellulose so but cows
we can’t digest cellulose so but cows
we can’t digest cellulose so but cows can and herbivores can so by using the
can and herbivores can so by using the
can and herbivores can so by using the system it’s a way of turning solar
system it’s a way of turning solar
system it’s a way of turning solar energy into human calories and in fact
energy into human calories and in fact
energy into human calories and in fact you’re eating sunshine and it’s
you’re eating sunshine and it’s
you’re eating sunshine and it’s something that’s incredibly renewable
something that’s incredibly renewable
something that’s incredibly renewable because if you think about it the only
because if you think about it the only
because if you think about it the only inputs are sunshine and water and those
inputs are sunshine and water and those
inputs are sunshine and water and those are renewable sources so it’s with all
are renewable sources so it’s with all
are renewable sources so it’s with all of these things in mind that I decided
of these things in mind that I decided
of these things in mind that I decided personally get involved in growing food
personally get involved in growing food
personally get involved in growing food this way it’s funny a few years ago I
this way it’s funny a few years ago I
this way it’s funny a few years ago I went to listen to a famous investor Jim
went to listen to a famous investor Jim
went to listen to a famous investor Jim Rogers who co-founded the want some fun
Rogers who co-founded the want some fun
Rogers who co-founded the want some fun with George Soros speak to a group of
with George Soros speak to a group of
with George Soros speak to a group of MBAs at Wharton and in response to a
MBAs at Wharton and in response to a
MBAs at Wharton and in response to a question about career advice he told
question about career advice he told
question about career advice he told them all that they should quit school
them all that they should quit school
them all that they should quit school and go become farmers and I’m pretty
and go become farmers and I’m pretty
and go become farmers and I’m pretty sure I’m the only one that listened to
sure I’m the only one that listened to
sure I’m the only one that listened to it but I know that in the future it’s
it but I know that in the future it’s
it but I know that in the future it’s going to be important that there are
going to be important that there are
going to be important that there are people that know how to grow food in
people that know how to grow food in
people that know how to grow food in this way
this way
this way so I decided in 2010 to buy this for my
so I decided in 2010 to buy this for my
so I decided in 2010 to buy this for my Brooke spent two years doing
Brooke spent two years doing
Brooke spent two years doing construction and getting the animals
construction and getting the animals
construction and getting the animals ready you can see that we use a
ready you can see that we use a
ready you can see that we use a grass-based system all of the animals
grass-based system all of the animals
grass-based system all of the animals are living outside we raise grass-fed
are living outside we raise grass-fed
are living outside we raise grass-fed beef we raise our pigs out in the woods
beef we raise our pigs out in the woods
beef we raise our pigs out in the woods all the chickens are raised on pasture
all the chickens are raised on pasture
all the chickens are raised on pasture and we sell the products of the farm
and we sell the products of the farm
and we sell the products of the farm through our store and restaurant
through our store and restaurant
through our store and restaurant but you can see some pictures of what
but you can see some pictures of what
but you can see some pictures of what that actually looks like
that actually looks like
that actually looks like cute animals
so I’ve often wondered why it is that
so I’ve often wondered why it is that the
the
the other people don’t see these
other people don’t see these
other people don’t see these implications of exponential growth I
implications of exponential growth I
implications of exponential growth I know I’m not the only person in the
know I’m not the only person in the
know I’m not the only person in the world that’s thought of this in fact in
world that’s thought of this in fact in
world that’s thought of this in fact in the late 1700s Thomas Malthus wrote a
the late 1700s Thomas Malthus wrote a
the late 1700s Thomas Malthus wrote a famous book about how the geometrically
famous book about how the geometrically
famous book about how the geometrically increasing portion of human population
increasing portion of human population
increasing portion of human population would soon outstrip our ability to feed
would soon outstrip our ability to feed
would soon outstrip our ability to feed ourselves but he had no idea at that
ourselves but he had no idea at that
ourselves but he had no idea at that time that we would find a way to turn
time that we would find a way to turn
time that we would find a way to turn fossil fuels into food but as we know
fossil fuels into food but as we know
fossil fuels into food but as we know fossil fuels are a limited resource as
fossil fuels are a limited resource as
fossil fuels are a limited resource as well even in the 70s the Club of Rome
well even in the 70s the Club of Rome
well even in the 70s the Club of Rome wrote an important book called limits to
wrote an important book called limits to
wrote an important book called limits to growth that outlined a lot of these
growth that outlined a lot of these
growth that outlined a lot of these topics that are talked about today but
topics that are talked about today but
topics that are talked about today but those have been largely ignored I have
those have been largely ignored I have
those have been largely ignored I have very little faith in government’s to
very little faith in government’s to
very little faith in government’s to make these changes but we as individuals
make these changes but we as individuals
make these changes but we as individuals and communities have the power to make
and communities have the power to make
and communities have the power to make the changes it doesn’t take a crisis for
the changes it doesn’t take a crisis for
the changes it doesn’t take a crisis for us to realize that this is going to be a
us to realize that this is going to be a
us to realize that this is going to be a problem down the road
problem down the road
problem down the road and it’s something that I was really
and it’s something that I was really
and it’s something that I was really encouraged about to see that you guys
encouraged about to see that you guys
encouraged about to see that you guys have a sustainability Club and it was
have a sustainability Club and it was
have a sustainability Club and it was something that you were thinking about
something that you were thinking about
something that you were thinking about it ready because it’s going to be your
it ready because it’s going to be your
it ready because it’s going to be your generation that’s going to have to make
generation that’s going to have to make
generation that’s going to have to make that change
that change
that change like I said I don’t think I don’t see
like I said I don’t think I don’t see
like I said I don’t think I don’t see how governments will be the one to do it
how governments will be the one to do it
how governments will be the one to do it but the ways that you can make a
but the ways that you can make a
but the ways that you can make a difference are really easy first of all
difference are really easy first of all
difference are really easy first of all every dollar that you spend on your food
every dollar that you spend on your food
every dollar that you spend on your food is a vote for how the next animal where
is a vote for how the next animal where
is a vote for how the next animal where the next piece of food is going to be
the next piece of food is going to be
the next piece of food is going to be raised that’s how you make a difference
raised that’s how you make a difference
raised that’s how you make a difference by choosing to make good choices and
by choosing to make good choices and
by choosing to make good choices and sustainable choices and everything that
sustainable choices and everything that
sustainable choices and everything that you buy so my job is simply to provide
you buy so my job is simply to provide
you buy so my job is simply to provide that option for you thanks for having me
”
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