[Music] [Applause]
[Applause]
[Applause] [Music]
there’s a temple in Bali where you have
there’s a temple in Bali where you have to be on your guard because the monkeys
to be on your guard because the monkeys
to be on your guard because the monkeys that live there have learned a new trick
that live there have learned a new trick
that live there have learned a new trick they watch the tourists what they’re
they watch the tourists what they’re
they watch the tourists what they’re watching for is the belongings that the
watching for is the belongings that the
watching for is the belongings that the tourists are carrying the monkeys have
tourists are carrying the monkeys have
tourists are carrying the monkeys have evolved a completely new behavior when
evolved a completely new behavior when
evolved a completely new behavior when they see tourists carrying expensive
they see tourists carrying expensive
they see tourists carrying expensive objects they’ll jump down
objects they’ll jump down
objects they’ll jump down sneak up they’ll take those objects away
sneak up they’ll take those objects away
sneak up they’ll take those objects away and then they’ll climb up and hide on
and then they’ll climb up and hide on
and then they’ll climb up and hide on high spots out of reach but they’re not
high spots out of reach but they’re not
high spots out of reach but they’re not trying to get the objects they’re trying
trying to get the objects they’re trying
trying to get the objects they’re trying to get food so the sit and taunt the
to get food so the sit and taunt the
to get food so the sit and taunt the tourists with their foster grants until
tourists with their foster grants until
tourists with their foster grants until the tourists realize that they have to
the tourists realize that they have to
the tourists realize that they have to pay a ransom and this ransom is in the
pay a ransom and this ransom is in the
pay a ransom and this ransom is in the form of food which is then paid over to
form of food which is then paid over to
form of food which is then paid over to the monkeys now if that food is
the monkeys now if that food is
the monkeys now if that food is presented in sufficient quantity and the
presented in sufficient quantity and the
presented in sufficient quantity and the quality is good enough then the items
quality is good enough then the items
quality is good enough then the items that had been stolen are dually returned
that had been stolen are dually returned
that had been stolen are dually returned to their owners and everybody who
to their owners and everybody who
to their owners and everybody who departs happily so the monkeys have
departs happily so the monkeys have
departs happily so the monkeys have evolved an entirely new way of behaving
evolved an entirely new way of behaving
evolved an entirely new way of behaving this new behavior gets them food and
this new behavior gets them food and
this new behavior gets them food and they’ve learnt it over a period of years
they’ve learnt it over a period of years
they’ve learnt it over a period of years you could almost say that is evolution
you could almost say that is evolution
you could almost say that is evolution so we’ll return to those monkeys a
so we’ll return to those monkeys a
so we’ll return to those monkeys a little bit later on global warming it’s
little bit later on global warming it’s
little bit later on global warming it’s a phenomenon that variously described
a phenomenon that variously described
a phenomenon that variously described between extremes from we’re doomed mass
between extremes from we’re doomed mass
between extremes from we’re doomed mass extinction is inevitable you’re all
extinction is inevitable you’re all
extinction is inevitable you’re all going to die so hey guys soon each
going to die so hey guys soon each
going to die so hey guys soon each holidays are going to be a lot warmer I
holidays are going to be a lot warmer I
holidays are going to be a lot warmer I think this needs a little bit more of a
think this needs a little bit more of a
think this needs a little bit more of a perspective and that’s what I’d like to
perspective and that’s what I’d like to
perspective and that’s what I’d like to look at today that the earth is warming
look at today that the earth is warming
look at today that the earth is warming is not disputed it’s well documented in
is not disputed it’s well documented in
is not disputed it’s well documented in scientific evidence and one of the ways
scientific evidence and one of the ways
scientific evidence and one of the ways in which this is studies is fascinating
in which this is studies is fascinating
in which this is studies is fascinating and it involves looking at the oxygen
and it involves looking at the oxygen
and it involves looking at the oxygen isotopes in water oxygen exists in two
isotopes in water oxygen exists in two
isotopes in water oxygen exists in two forms the normal one is oxygen 16 and
forms the normal one is oxygen 16 and
forms the normal one is oxygen 16 and the alternative form is oxygen 18
the alternative form is oxygen 18
the alternative form is oxygen 18 and the difference between the two is
and the difference between the two is
and the difference between the two is that oxygen-18 has two extra neutrons in
that oxygen-18 has two extra neutrons in
that oxygen-18 has two extra neutrons in its nucleus and this makes it very
its nucleus and this makes it very
its nucleus and this makes it very slightly heavier now oxygen is used by
slightly heavier now oxygen is used by
slightly heavier now oxygen is used by organisms in the water to make chem
organisms in the water to make chem
organisms in the water to make chem shells because it goes through the food
shells because it goes through the food
shells because it goes through the food chains and ultimately it appears in
chains and ultimately it appears in
chains and ultimately it appears in compounds such as calcium carbonate so
compounds such as calcium carbonate so
compounds such as calcium carbonate so organisms and make little shells might
organisms and make little shells might
organisms and make little shells might actually reveal how the oxygen
actually reveal how the oxygen
actually reveal how the oxygen components within the water vary it
components within the water vary it
components within the water vary it turns out that the oxygen-18
turns out that the oxygen-18
turns out that the oxygen-18 is more likely to be in water during
is more likely to be in water during
is more likely to be in water during periods of time when the earth is very
periods of time when the earth is very
periods of time when the earth is very cold with ice caps and oxygen-16 is more
cold with ice caps and oxygen-16 is more
cold with ice caps and oxygen-16 is more likely to be present in the water in
likely to be present in the water in
likely to be present in the water in greater quantities when the ice caps are
greater quantities when the ice caps are
greater quantities when the ice caps are absent so could the fossils then be used
absent so could the fossils then be used
absent so could the fossils then be used to reveal to us the history of warming
to reveal to us the history of warming
to reveal to us the history of warming and cooling events on the earth
and cooling events on the earth
and cooling events on the earth well a pioneer in this field was
well a pioneer in this field was
well a pioneer in this field was Professor zanuck shackleton director
Professor zanuck shackleton director
Professor zanuck shackleton director Cambridge and he used to work on little
Cambridge and he used to work on little
Cambridge and he used to work on little organisms called blobby Jurina
organisms called blobby Jurina
organisms called blobby Jurina isn’t that beautiful little thing what
isn’t that beautiful little thing what
isn’t that beautiful little thing what Nick did is he developed a technique
Nick did is he developed a technique
Nick did is he developed a technique which involved analysis of the shells of
which involved analysis of the shells of
which involved analysis of the shells of these things using mass spectrometry and
these things using mass spectrometry and
these things using mass spectrometry and using that he was able to work out the
using that he was able to work out the
using that he was able to work out the ratios between the two isotopes in the
ratios between the two isotopes in the
ratios between the two isotopes in the shells and tally that with the age of
shells and tally that with the age of
shells and tally that with the age of the actual fossil now what was revealed
the actual fossil now what was revealed
the actual fossil now what was revealed was that during times when there were
was that during times when there were
was that during times when there were ice caps the water that evaporates into
ice caps the water that evaporates into
ice caps the water that evaporates into the air is cooled a little bit more
the air is cooled a little bit more
the air is cooled a little bit more quickly than at other times and so the
quickly than at other times and so the
quickly than at other times and so the rain and pulls a little bit sooner and
rain and pulls a little bit sooner and
rain and pulls a little bit sooner and the earliest rain to fall contains most
the earliest rain to fall contains most
the earliest rain to fall contains most of the oxygen-18
of the oxygen-18
of the oxygen-18 and the reason for that is oxygenating
and the reason for that is oxygenating
and the reason for that is oxygenating is very slightly heavier and therefore
is very slightly heavier and therefore
is very slightly heavier and therefore it’s going to condense first and so the
it’s going to condense first and so the
it’s going to condense first and so the sea is enriched with oxygen 18 meanwhile
sea is enriched with oxygen 18 meanwhile
sea is enriched with oxygen 18 meanwhile the rest of the air carries on towards
the rest of the air carries on towards
the rest of the air carries on towards the polar regions where it will finally
the polar regions where it will finally
the polar regions where it will finally forward probably as snow but by that
forward probably as snow but by that
forward probably as snow but by that time the oxygen-18 is no longer present
time the oxygen-18 is no longer present
time the oxygen-18 is no longer present and the air there arrives at the poles
and the air there arrives at the poles
and the air there arrives at the poles is enriched with oxygen 16 and so as it
is enriched with oxygen 16 and so as it
is enriched with oxygen 16 and so as it falls as snow the snow itself becomes
falls as snow the snow itself becomes
falls as snow the snow itself becomes repository and locks away oxygen-16
repository and locks away oxygen-16
repository and locks away oxygen-16 so the ice caps at the poles
so the ice caps at the poles
so the ice caps at the poles indisputably egg evidenced by the
indisputably egg evidenced by the
indisputably egg evidenced by the fossils and further work recently has
fossils and further work recently has
fossils and further work recently has helped to reinforce this this is a
helped to reinforce this this is a
helped to reinforce this this is a picture of a clam clams are much longer
picture of a clam clams are much longer
picture of a clam clams are much longer lived than forum in a fridge which is
lived than forum in a fridge which is
lived than forum in a fridge which is the possibly source now these have
the possibly source now these have
the possibly source now these have annual growth rings and so if you take
annual growth rings and so if you take
annual growth rings and so if you take these fossils and section them it’s
these fossils and section them it’s
these fossils and section them it’s possible to look at the growth rings
possible to look at the growth rings
possible to look at the growth rings individually and to look at the oxygen
individually and to look at the oxygen
individually and to look at the oxygen isotope ratios within those rings on an
isotope ratios within those rings on an
isotope ratios within those rings on an annual basis thereby gaining a
annual basis thereby gaining a
annual basis thereby gaining a fluctuating pattern from year to year
fluctuating pattern from year to year
fluctuating pattern from year to year but the great rings also show another
but the great rings also show another
but the great rings also show another difference they show a difference in
difference they show a difference in
difference they show a difference in thickness depending on how well the
thickness depending on how well the
thickness depending on how well the animal was fed that year so on a good
animal was fed that year so on a good
animal was fed that year so on a good year the growth rings going to be wider
year the growth rings going to be wider
year the growth rings going to be wider and on a poorer year the growth ring
and on a poorer year the growth ring
and on a poorer year the growth ring will be narrower and so it’s possible to
will be narrower and so it’s possible to
will be narrower and so it’s possible to take the shells and to match them up so
take the shells and to match them up so
take the shells and to match them up so that you can determine how the patterns
that you can determine how the patterns
that you can determine how the patterns of growth rings overlap and establish by
of growth rings overlap and establish by
of growth rings overlap and establish by comparing successively older shells
comparing successively older shells
comparing successively older shells eventually with fossil shells a complete
eventually with fossil shells a complete
eventually with fossil shells a complete growth ring record going back many years
growth ring record going back many years
growth ring record going back many years possibly even thousands of years this is
possibly even thousands of years this is
possibly even thousands of years this is called sclera chronology and what it’s
called sclera chronology and what it’s
called sclera chronology and what it’s allowing scientists to do is to develop
allowing scientists to do is to develop
allowing scientists to do is to develop a record we like of global temperature
a record we like of global temperature
a record we like of global temperature changes which are recorded in the oxygen
changes which are recorded in the oxygen
changes which are recorded in the oxygen isotopes in the growth rings of the
isotopes in the growth rings of the
isotopes in the growth rings of the shells of these clams this is very
shells of these clams this is very
shells of these clams this is very similar to the way in which they’ve
similar to the way in which they’ve
similar to the way in which they’ve collated dendrochronology data to look
collated dendrochronology data to look
collated dendrochronology data to look at dating with carbon dating as well so
at dating with carbon dating as well so
at dating with carbon dating as well so what’s emerging from all of this is the
what’s emerging from all of this is the
what’s emerging from all of this is the pattern that shows us that when ice is
pattern that shows us that when ice is
pattern that shows us that when ice is present at the poles it locks away the
present at the poles it locks away the
present at the poles it locks away the oxygen-16
oxygen-16
oxygen-16 and so the sea becomes enriched with
and so the sea becomes enriched with
and so the sea becomes enriched with oxygen 18 all Yorkists which live in
oxygen 18 all Yorkists which live in
oxygen 18 all Yorkists which live in there showed an increase in oxygen 18
there showed an increase in oxygen 18
there showed an increase in oxygen 18 within their shells at that time
within their shells at that time
within their shells at that time conversely at other times when there are
conversely at other times when there are
conversely at other times when there are no poles the reverse is true because the
no poles the reverse is true because the
no poles the reverse is true because the melting ice returns the oxygen 16 to the
melting ice returns the oxygen 16 to the
melting ice returns the oxygen 16 to the wall
wall
wall where it dilutes among the whole isotope
where it dilutes among the whole isotope
where it dilutes among the whole isotope ratio the ice itself is also a
ratio the ice itself is also a
ratio the ice itself is also a repository of information because it
repository of information because it
repository of information because it contains the oxygen isotopes too so ice
contains the oxygen isotopes too so ice
contains the oxygen isotopes too so ice drills and cores can be used to
drills and cores can be used to
drills and cores can be used to reinforce the data which is emerging
reinforce the data which is emerging
reinforce the data which is emerging what has emerged from the studies of
what has emerged from the studies of
what has emerged from the studies of apostles’ the picture is very firm now
apostles’ the picture is very firm now
apostles’ the picture is very firm now about the warming of the of the earth so
about the warming of the of the earth so
about the warming of the of the earth so if we have this pattern how far should
if we have this pattern how far should
if we have this pattern how far should we go
we go
we go before we start descending into mass
before we start descending into mass
before we start descending into mass panic well it really depends on how you
panic well it really depends on how you
panic well it really depends on how you look at the data I think so let’s
look at the data I think so let’s
look at the data I think so let’s suppose we showed that to global warming
suppose we showed that to global warming
suppose we showed that to global warming data just over the last hundred years
data just over the last hundred years
data just over the last hundred years what you can see is a clear trend the
what you can see is a clear trend the
what you can see is a clear trend the Earth’s warming up over the last 100
Earth’s warming up over the last 100
Earth’s warming up over the last 100 years that’s a convenient timescale
years that’s a convenient timescale
years that’s a convenient timescale isn’t it because it allows us to point
isn’t it because it allows us to point
isn’t it because it allows us to point that finger of accusation a human
that finger of accusation a human
that finger of accusation a human pollution industrialization it’s all our
pollution industrialization it’s all our
pollution industrialization it’s all our fault but what about if we change that
fault but what about if we change that
fault but what about if we change that timescale a little bit and now you look
timescale a little bit and now you look
timescale a little bit and now you look at it over a period of forty thousand
at it over a period of forty thousand
at it over a period of forty thousand years now you can see that yes we are in
years now you can see that yes we are in
years now you can see that yes we are in a period of time when the world’s
a period of time when the world’s
a period of time when the world’s warming up
warming up
warming up no doubt about it but it’s just another
no doubt about it but it’s just another
no doubt about it but it’s just another warming in a repeating natural sequence
warming in a repeating natural sequence
warming in a repeating natural sequence of warming and cooling that the earth
of warming and cooling that the earth
of warming and cooling that the earth has it’s a natural rhythm it’s possible
has it’s a natural rhythm it’s possible
has it’s a natural rhythm it’s possible then that we human beings are just
then that we human beings are just
then that we human beings are just accelerating what’s already inevitable
accelerating what’s already inevitable
accelerating what’s already inevitable so where we upset about that well if the
so where we upset about that well if the
so where we upset about that well if the world is going to warm up the ice caps
world is going to warm up the ice caps
world is going to warm up the ice caps are going to go we’re gonna lose
are going to go we’re gonna lose
are going to go we’re gonna lose ecosystems habitats are going to go big
ecosystems habitats are going to go big
ecosystems habitats are going to go big cuddly creatures and they’re gonna have
cuddly creatures and they’re gonna have
cuddly creatures and they’re gonna have anywhere to live and we’re gonna be a
anywhere to live and we’re gonna be a
anywhere to live and we’re gonna be a bit sad he wants the polar bear to get
bit sad he wants the polar bear to get
bit sad he wants the polar bear to get extinct probably none of us but that
extinct probably none of us but that
extinct probably none of us but that might be an inevitability and so we’re
might be an inevitability and so we’re
might be an inevitability and so we’re going to be emotional and worried and
going to be emotional and worried and
going to be emotional and worried and we’re gonna have global agreements
we’re gonna have global agreements
we’re gonna have global agreements between nations to try and stop all this
between nations to try and stop all this
between nations to try and stop all this ever happening we’re trying to stop
ever happening we’re trying to stop
ever happening we’re trying to stop something which is happening
something which is happening
something which is happening irrespective of our own activities even
irrespective of our own activities even
irrespective of our own activities even if we are accelerating is of course
if we are accelerating is of course
if we are accelerating is of course so what about any perspective so those
so what about any perspective so those
so what about any perspective so those are stood here now ten thousand years
are stood here now ten thousand years
are stood here now ten thousand years ago not today
ago not today
ago not today what would I then be saying to you I’m a
what would I then be saying to you I’m a
what would I then be saying to you I’m a bit upset the woolly mammoth is just
bit upset the woolly mammoth is just
bit upset the woolly mammoth is just about to go extinct everyone we’re not
about to go extinct everyone we’re not
about to go extinct everyone we’re not gonna see it again big furry animal
gonna see it again big furry animal
gonna see it again big furry animal great grand creature it’s a tragedy but
great grand creature it’s a tragedy but
great grand creature it’s a tragedy but what about if I now walk forward in time
what about if I now walk forward in time
what about if I now walk forward in time from that moment now what do I see I’d
from that moment now what do I see I’d
from that moment now what do I see I’d see the emergence of an entirely new
see the emergence of an entirely new
see the emergence of an entirely new bunch of creatures animals plants I’d
bunch of creatures animals plants I’d
bunch of creatures animals plants I’d see the emergence of the glorious
see the emergence of the glorious
see the emergence of the glorious biodiversity of a rainforest I’d see the
biodiversity of a rainforest I’d see the
biodiversity of a rainforest I’d see the evolution of intricate new orchids I’d
evolution of intricate new orchids I’d
evolution of intricate new orchids I’d see the fragrance of a Bluebell wood and
see the fragrance of a Bluebell wood and
see the fragrance of a Bluebell wood and the fabulous biodiversity of a coral
the fabulous biodiversity of a coral
the fabulous biodiversity of a coral reef see life always finds a way to
reef see life always finds a way to
reef see life always finds a way to bounce back one argument is that
bounce back one argument is that
bounce back one argument is that evolution takes an awfully long time
evolution takes an awfully long time
evolution takes an awfully long time when I’d argue it a little bit
when I’d argue it a little bit
when I’d argue it a little bit differently from now I think evolution
differently from now I think evolution
differently from now I think evolution carries on at a pace that steeps
carries on at a pace that steeps
carries on at a pace that steeps necessity after all it can’t have taken
necessity after all it can’t have taken
necessity after all it can’t have taken those baboons millions of years to learn
those baboons millions of years to learn
those baboons millions of years to learn the difference between a Cartier and a
the difference between a Cartier and a
the difference between a Cartier and a Timex so if I really could time travel
Timex so if I really could time travel
Timex so if I really could time travel like Doctor Who what would I do
like Doctor Who what would I do
like Doctor Who what would I do well I’d actually go backwards because
well I’d actually go backwards because
well I’d actually go backwards because I’d want to see the fossil plants I
I’d want to see the fossil plants I
I’d want to see the fossil plants I study growing in their natural
study growing in their natural
study growing in their natural environment and in all that brewery see
environment and in all that brewery see
environment and in all that brewery see what they really were like I might like
what they really were like I might like
what they really were like I might like to go and see a Tyrannosaurus but I’d
to go and see a Tyrannosaurus but I’d
to go and see a Tyrannosaurus but I’d never go forwards because by doing that
never go forwards because by doing that
never go forwards because by doing that I might just spoil the coming
I might just spoil the coming
I might just spoil the coming evolutionary surprise thank you
”
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