what if I told you that you could predict the future more so that you’re
predict the future more so that you’re
predict the future more so that you’re experts at it you do it all the time
experts at it you do it all the time
experts at it you do it all the time even right now you look skeptical well
even right now you look skeptical well
even right now you look skeptical well what’s gonna happen next it’s obvious
what’s gonna happen next it’s obvious
what’s gonna happen next it’s obvious this may seem so simple to you because
this may seem so simple to you because
this may seem so simple to you because we do it all the time but it’s not
we do it all the time but it’s not
we do it all the time but it’s not trivial you need to know about water you
trivial you need to know about water you
trivial you need to know about water you need to know how it looks about gravity
need to know how it looks about gravity
need to know how it looks about gravity how things fall out of buckets when
how things fall out of buckets when
how things fall out of buckets when dropped you need to know about social
dropped you need to know about social
dropped you need to know about social interactions about pranks people play on
interactions about pranks people play on
interactions about pranks people play on each other about potentially staged
each other about potentially staged
each other about potentially staged photographs for taking for the purpose
photographs for taking for the purpose
photographs for taking for the purpose of a TED talk in a blink of an eye you
of a TED talk in a blink of an eye you
of a TED talk in a blink of an eye you combine all of this knowledge to predict
combine all of this knowledge to predict
combine all of this knowledge to predict what will happen next you can even feel
what will happen next you can even feel
what will happen next you can even feel the cold of the water as it splashes
the cold of the water as it splashes
the cold of the water as it splashes over your head and runs down near back
over your head and runs down near back
over your head and runs down near back we do this all the time with ease you
we do this all the time with ease you
we do this all the time with ease you can predict what the last word will be
can predict what the last word will be
can predict what the last word will be at the end of this you can hear of
at the end of this you can hear of
at the end of this you can hear of something happen to somebody and you
something happen to somebody and you
something happen to somebody and you know what it would feel like if it were
know what it would feel like if it were
know what it would feel like if it were to happen to you this is the basis of
to happen to you this is the basis of
to happen to you this is the basis of empathy we continuously run a simulation
empathy we continuously run a simulation
empathy we continuously run a simulation an internal model of the world in our
an internal model of the world in our
an internal model of the world in our head to predict what will happen next
head to predict what will happen next
head to predict what will happen next we call this thinking we can think about
we call this thinking we can think about
we call this thinking we can think about what would happen if we were to do
what would happen if we were to do
what would happen if we were to do something without actually having to do
something without actually having to do
something without actually having to do this but if we do this all the time with
this but if we do this all the time with
this but if we do this all the time with this not interfere with how we see the
this not interfere with how we see the
this not interfere with how we see the world how we feel the world how we hear
world how we feel the world how we hear
world how we feel the world how we hear the world it does of course it does
the world it does of course it does
the world it does of course it does let’s take a simple example color black
let’s take a simple example color black
let’s take a simple example color black jacket white shirt surely no two people
jacket white shirt surely no two people
jacket white shirt surely no two people would ever disagree on the color of a
would ever disagree on the color of a
would ever disagree on the color of a piece of clothing except we do of course
piece of clothing except we do of course
piece of clothing except we do of course all the time you’ve probably see
all the time you’ve probably see
all the time you’ve probably see in this photograph of address some of
in this photograph of address some of
in this photograph of address some of you will see it as black and blue and
you will see it as black and blue and
you will see it as black and blue and others of you will see it as white and
others of you will see it as white and
others of you will see it as white and gold and there’s heated debates about
gold and there’s heated debates about
gold and there’s heated debates about which of the two interpretations is
which of the two interpretations is
which of the two interpretations is correct but whether you see it as black
correct but whether you see it as black
correct but whether you see it as black and blue or white and gold simply
and blue or white and gold simply
and blue or white and gold simply depends on the predictions your brain
depends on the predictions your brain
depends on the predictions your brain makes about the lighting conditions this
makes about the lighting conditions this
makes about the lighting conditions this photo was taken under and I can prove
photo was taken under and I can prove
photo was taken under and I can prove that to you suppose we take two
that to you suppose we take two
that to you suppose we take two identical patterns that are in this
identical patterns that are in this
identical patterns that are in this image and we will give them context now
image and we will give them context now
image and we will give them context now to change the predictions you make about
to change the predictions you make about
to change the predictions you make about the lighting conditions suppose you saw
the lighting conditions suppose you saw
the lighting conditions suppose you saw the snippet the pattern on the left on a
the snippet the pattern on the left on a
the snippet the pattern on the left on a gray autumn day it might appear white
gray autumn day it might appear white
gray autumn day it might appear white and gold now suppose you saw that same
and gold now suppose you saw that same
and gold now suppose you saw that same scene again
scene again
scene again half a year later on a bright spring
half a year later on a bright spring
half a year later on a bright spring evening it might appear black and blue
evening it might appear black and blue
evening it might appear black and blue note that nothing has changed about the
note that nothing has changed about the
note that nothing has changed about the two patterns simply the context that’s a
two patterns simply the context that’s a
two patterns simply the context that’s a suggest to your brain what the lighting
suggest to your brain what the lighting
suggest to your brain what the lighting conditions are under which this photo
conditions are under which this photo
conditions are under which this photo was taken have changed the predictions
was taken have changed the predictions
was taken have changed the predictions we make about the world consciously or
we make about the world consciously or
we make about the world consciously or subconsciously continuously influence
subconsciously continuously influence
subconsciously continuously influence how we see the world the instance is
how we see the world the instance is
how we see the world the instance is where we can prove that this is the case
where we can prove that this is the case
where we can prove that this is the case we call visual illusions but this
we call visual illusions but this
we call visual illusions but this happens all the time
happens all the time
happens all the time the idea that we have direct access to
the idea that we have direct access to
the idea that we have direct access to reality is a misconception so what’s the
reality is a misconception so what’s the
reality is a misconception so what’s the purpose of doing this why would we
purpose of doing this why would we
purpose of doing this why would we predict well the advantages are obvious
predict well the advantages are obvious
predict well the advantages are obvious we can anticipate and we can filter the
we can anticipate and we can filter the
we can anticipate and we can filter the information the sensory information for
information the sensory information for
information the sensory information for salient deviations from our expectations
salient deviations from our expectations
salient deviations from our expectations and anticipations anticipating the
and anticipations anticipating the
and anticipations anticipating the movement of an oncoming car is what
movement of an oncoming car is what
movement of an oncoming car is what allows you to avoid collision filtering
allows you to avoid collision filtering
allows you to avoid collision filtering the sensory information of this stage
the sensory information of this stage
the sensory information of this stage you’ve been looking at for a while now
you’ve been looking at for a while now
you’ve been looking at for a while now is what allows you to pay attention to
is what allows you to pay attention to
is what allows you to pay attention to what I’m saying
what I’m saying
what I’m saying but how
but how
but how this happen in the brain for this we
this happen in the brain for this we
this happen in the brain for this we turn to neuroscience and these are
turn to neuroscience and these are
turn to neuroscience and these are precisely the question our lab is
precisely the question our lab is
precisely the question our lab is addressing how does the brain generate
addressing how does the brain generate
addressing how does the brain generate predictions and what are they used for
predictions and what are they used for
predictions and what are they used for to do this we typically start by
to do this we typically start by
to do this we typically start by training a mouse to play a video game
training a mouse to play a video game
training a mouse to play a video game the mouse sits on a spherical treadmill
the mouse sits on a spherical treadmill
the mouse sits on a spherical treadmill and vietze locomotion controls a video
and vietze locomotion controls a video
and vietze locomotion controls a video game shown to it on something like a
game shown to it on something like a
game shown to it on something like a mouse IMAX screen excuse me as the mouse
mouse IMAX screen excuse me as the mouse
mouse IMAX screen excuse me as the mouse does this we record from neurons in the
does this we record from neurons in the
does this we record from neurons in the brain of the mouse from a part of the
brain of the mouse from a part of the
brain of the mouse from a part of the brain that is responsible for processing
brain that is responsible for processing
brain that is responsible for processing visual information the primary visual
visual information the primary visual
visual information the primary visual cortex we use a method to visualize the
cortex we use a method to visualize the
cortex we use a method to visualize the activity of individual brain cells that
activity of individual brain cells that
activity of individual brain cells that you see here in this video as the mouse
you see here in this video as the mouse
you see here in this video as the mouse plays the video game so we can watch the
plays the video game so we can watch the
plays the video game so we can watch the mouse think now what happens as the
mouse think now what happens as the
mouse think now what happens as the mouse first explores a virtual
mouse first explores a virtual
mouse first explores a virtual environment and then learns about it and
environment and then learns about it and
environment and then learns about it and then what happens if we change something
then what happens if we change something
then what happens if we change something about the environment it doesn’t expect
about the environment it doesn’t expect
about the environment it doesn’t expect suppose the mouse were to run down a
suppose the mouse were to run down a
suppose the mouse were to run down a corridor at the end of the corridor
corridor at the end of the corridor
corridor at the end of the corridor there’s a turn the mouse turns and
there’s a turn the mouse turns and
there’s a turn the mouse turns and behind the turn as an image and the
behind the turn as an image and the
behind the turn as an image and the mouse sees that image and this results
mouse sees that image and this results
mouse sees that image and this results in a visual response in the brain of the
in a visual response in the brain of the
in a visual response in the brain of the mouse it sees the image but now what
mouse it sees the image but now what
mouse it sees the image but now what happens with time as it runs down this
happens with time as it runs down this
happens with time as it runs down this corridor for hundreds of times just like
corridor for hundreds of times just like
corridor for hundreds of times just like us mice actually quite enjoy doing this
us mice actually quite enjoy doing this
us mice actually quite enjoy doing this they run down this corridor hundreds of
they run down this corridor hundreds of
they run down this corridor hundreds of times and they learn what they’re about
times and they learn what they’re about
times and they learn what they’re about to see so as the mouse comes up to the
to see so as the mouse comes up to the
to see so as the mouse comes up to the same corner for the hundreds for the two
same corner for the hundreds for the two
same corner for the hundreds for the two hundredth time what happens is it
hundredth time what happens is it
hundredth time what happens is it generates a prediction of what it’s
generates a prediction of what it’s
generates a prediction of what it’s about to see and these predictions start
about to see and these predictions start
about to see and these predictions start suppressing the visual response to
suppressing the visual response to
suppressing the visual response to actually seeing that image after the
actually seeing that image after the
actually seeing that image after the turn so
turn so
turn so happens if we remove that image if we
happens if we remove that image if we
happens if we remove that image if we violate the prediction the mouse is
violate the prediction the mouse is
violate the prediction the mouse is making now the mouse knows about the
making now the mouse knows about the
making now the mouse knows about the image it knows that there’s after the
image it knows that there’s after the
image it knows that there’s after the turn there’s an image it will see this
turn there’s an image it will see this
turn there’s an image it will see this image it runs down the corridor it’s
image it runs down the corridor it’s
image it runs down the corridor it’s still expecting to see it but we’ve
still expecting to see it but we’ve
still expecting to see it but we’ve removed it we’ve taken the image away
removed it we’ve taken the image away
removed it we’ve taken the image away what happens in the brain of the mouse
what happens in the brain of the mouse
what happens in the brain of the mouse there’s a very strong response a very
there’s a very strong response a very
there’s a very strong response a very strong deviation from expectation
strong deviation from expectation
strong deviation from expectation response and this is the moment the
response and this is the moment the
response and this is the moment the mouse updates it an internal model of
mouse updates it an internal model of
mouse updates it an internal model of the world and learns so we continuously
the world and learns so we continuously
the world and learns so we continuously compare what we expect to see with what
compare what we expect to see with what
compare what we expect to see with what we actually see we predict explain away
we actually see we predict explain away
we actually see we predict explain away things that are close enough to our
things that are close enough to our
things that are close enough to our expectations to detect those moments
expectations to detect those moments
expectations to detect those moments where there is a salient deviation from
where there is a salient deviation from
where there is a salient deviation from expectation these are the moments we
expectation these are the moments we
expectation these are the moments we update their internal model we learn
update their internal model we learn
update their internal model we learn when we learn to speak for example what
when we learn to speak for example what
when we learn to speak for example what we do is we compare an internal model
we do is we compare an internal model
we do is we compare an internal model and memory of what we’re trying to say
and memory of what we’re trying to say
and memory of what we’re trying to say with what we’re actually saying this is
with what we’re actually saying this is
with what we’re actually saying this is the reason your voice our voice sounds
the reason your voice our voice sounds
the reason your voice our voice sounds different when we hear it on tape what
different when we hear it on tape what
different when we hear it on tape what we hear when we speak is a mixture of
we hear when we speak is a mixture of
we hear when we speak is a mixture of what we expect to hear and what we
what we expect to hear and what we
what we expect to hear and what we actually hear these predictions can be
actually hear these predictions can be
actually hear these predictions can be so strong that they interfere with what
so strong that they interfere with what
so strong that they interfere with what we’re seeing typos in our own writing
we’re seeing typos in our own writing
we’re seeing typos in our own writing our partners new haircut our new glasses
our partners new haircut our new glasses
our partners new haircut our new glasses we miss things that are right in front
we miss things that are right in front
we miss things that are right in front of our eyes because we have a good
of our eyes because we have a good
of our eyes because we have a good expectation of how he or she should look
expectation of how he or she should look
expectation of how he or she should look like and what we see is what we expected
like and what we see is what we expected
like and what we see is what we expected to see so perception is always a
to see so perception is always a
to see so perception is always a comparison between what we predict to
comparison between what we predict to
comparison between what we predict to hear to see to feel to smell and what is
hear to see to feel to smell and what is
hear to see to feel to smell and what is actually there why does this matter
actually there why does this matter
actually there why does this matter well suppose for a second this finely
well suppose for a second this finely
well suppose for a second this finely tuned balance between predictions and
tuned balance between predictions and
tuned balance between predictions and actually sensory input were skewed in
actually sensory input were skewed in
actually sensory input were skewed in favor of predictions one might see
favor of predictions one might see
favor of predictions one might see things that aren’t actually there one
things that aren’t actually there one
things that aren’t actually there one might hear things that aren’t there
might hear things that aren’t there
might hear things that aren’t there project intentions into other people
project intentions into other people
project intentions into other people that aren’t there
that aren’t there
that aren’t there hallucinations and delusions conversely
hallucinations and delusions conversely
hallucinations and delusions conversely if predictions were too weak the world
if predictions were too weak the world
if predictions were too weak the world might appear unpredictable and magical
might appear unpredictable and magical
might appear unpredictable and magical and intentions of other people hard to
and intentions of other people hard to
and intentions of other people hard to understand and one might resort to doing
understand and one might resort to doing
understand and one might resort to doing the same thing over and over again in an
the same thing over and over again in an
the same thing over and over again in an attempt to restore predictability in the
attempt to restore predictability in the
attempt to restore predictability in the world the former are symptoms of what we
world the former are symptoms of what we
world the former are symptoms of what we call schizophrenia the latter those of
call schizophrenia the latter those of
call schizophrenia the latter those of what we call autism so these
what we call autism so these
what we call autism so these neurological conditions may be the
neurological conditions may be the
neurological conditions may be the result of an imbalance between an
result of an imbalance between an
result of an imbalance between an internal model of the world and
internal model of the world and
internal model of the world and imbalance in the comparison between an
imbalance in the comparison between an
imbalance in the comparison between an internal model of the world and the
internal model of the world and the
internal model of the world and the external world but what does that mean
external world but what does that mean
external world but what does that mean for us here today well next time you
for us here today well next time you
for us here today well next time you find yourself in this agreement with
find yourself in this agreement with
find yourself in this agreement with somebody consider this because our
somebody consider this because our
somebody consider this because our expectations depend on our very personal
expectations depend on our very personal
expectations depend on our very personal experience we’ve had with the world we
experience we’ve had with the world we
experience we’ve had with the world we differ in how we see the world in many
differ in how we see the world in many
differ in how we see the world in many more ways than simply how we judge the
more ways than simply how we judge the
more ways than simply how we judge the color of a piece of clothing we create
color of a piece of clothing we create
color of a piece of clothing we create our own simulation our own reality to be
our own simulation our own reality to be
our own simulation our own reality to be able to learn to predict what will
able to learn to predict what will
able to learn to predict what will happen next thank you very much
”
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