what I want to talk about is what critical thinking means we talk at
critical thinking means we talk at
critical thinking means we talk at Denison about critical thinking a lot
Denison about critical thinking a lot
Denison about critical thinking a lot actually that’s this video we just saw
actually that’s this video we just saw
actually that’s this video we just saw said that was part of what went on at
said that was part of what went on at
said that was part of what went on at the TED talks you know it’s part of our
the TED talks you know it’s part of our
the TED talks you know it’s part of our mission statement and we it seems like a
mission statement and we it seems like a
mission statement and we it seems like a significant thing for students to learn
significant thing for students to learn
significant thing for students to learn in a in a university critical thinking
in a in a university critical thinking
in a in a university critical thinking but we don’t actually talk that much
but we don’t actually talk that much
but we don’t actually talk that much about what critical thinking actually is
about what critical thinking actually is
about what critical thinking actually is and what it involves start by just
and what it involves start by just
and what it involves start by just saying what I think it is my own view of
saying what I think it is my own view of
saying what I think it is my own view of it and it’s it’s well stated in a in a
it and it’s it’s well stated in a in a
it and it’s it’s well stated in a in a button that people used to wear back in
button that people used to wear back in
button that people used to wear back in the old days when people wore lots a
the old days when people wore lots a
the old days when people wore lots a button so thing I used to wear the
button so thing I used to wear the
button so thing I used to wear the button myself and that’s what it said
button myself and that’s what it said
button myself and that’s what it said question authority I had trouble at one
question authority I had trouble at one
question authority I had trouble at one point cuz the students said to me does
point cuz the students said to me does
point cuz the students said to me does that mean you’re a question authority
that mean you’re a question authority
that mean you’re a question authority like you’re an expert on questions no
like you’re an expert on questions no
like you’re an expert on questions no that’s not what it means
that’s not what it means
that’s not what it means it means we’re supposed to raise the
it means we’re supposed to raise the
it means we’re supposed to raise the question authority me the the lesson of
question authority me the the lesson of
question authority me the the lesson of critical thinking is never believed
critical thinking is never believed
critical thinking is never believed anybody especially people who are in
anybody especially people who are in
anybody especially people who are in authority people who tell you that they
authority people who tell you that they
authority people who tell you that they know the truth it’s I think the most
know the truth it’s I think the most
know the truth it’s I think the most important thing to learn in college
important thing to learn in college
important thing to learn in college actually is not to believe them not to
actually is not to believe them not to
actually is not to believe them not to believe your parents not to believe your
believe your parents not to believe your
believe your parents not to believe your teachers not to believe your textbooks
teachers not to believe your textbooks
teachers not to believe your textbooks not to believe the president of the
not to believe the president of the
not to believe the president of the university and not to believe the
university and not to believe the
university and not to believe the president it’s not to believe any
president it’s not to believe any
president it’s not to believe any authority when they not that everything
authority when they not that everything
authority when they not that everything they say is false but whatever they say
they say is false but whatever they say
they say is false but whatever they say you have to take the attitude is this
you have to take the attitude is this
you have to take the attitude is this right do you have reasons for it what’s
right do you have reasons for it what’s
right do you have reasons for it what’s your what’s your explanation of it if
your what’s your explanation of it if
your what’s your explanation of it if there’s some counter arguments I could
there’s some counter arguments I could
there’s some counter arguments I could offer what are those counters you have
offer what are those counters you have
offer what are those counters you have to take that critical attitude towards
to take that critical attitude towards
to take that critical attitude towards whatever people tell you towards
whatever people tell you towards
whatever people tell you towards whatever authorities don’t you I think
whatever authorities don’t you I think
whatever authorities don’t you I think that’s the most important kind of lesson
that’s the most important kind of lesson
that’s the most important kind of lesson that one would get from learning how to
that one would get from learning how to
that one would get from learning how to do critical thinking but but there’s
do critical thinking but but there’s
do critical thinking but but there’s something particularly important that
something particularly important that
something particularly important that that has to do with with the foremost
that has to do with with the foremost
that has to do with with the foremost authority that you have to learn how to
authority that you have to learn how to
authority that you have to learn how to question and the foremost authority you
question and the foremost authority you
question and the foremost authority you have to learn how to question is
have to learn how to question is
have to learn how to question is yourself you walk in to any situation
yourself you walk in to any situation
yourself you walk in to any situation already believing all sorts of things
already believing all sorts of things
already believing all sorts of things and the the most important thing to
and the the most important thing to
and the the most important thing to learn I think is as a matter of critical
learn I think is as a matter of critical
learn I think is as a matter of critical thinking is to learn that I might not be
thinking is to learn that I might not be
thinking is to learn that I might not be right that my views might be incorrect
right that my views might be incorrect
right that my views might be incorrect and to and to take that really seriously
and to and to take that really seriously
and to and to take that really seriously that’s a really hard lesson to learn um
that’s a really hard lesson to learn um
that’s a really hard lesson to learn um so I’m gonna talk tonight actually about
so I’m gonna talk tonight actually about
so I’m gonna talk tonight actually about a particular philosopher Karl Popper who
a particular philosopher Karl Popper who
a particular philosopher Karl Popper who has written about this issue and who
has written about this issue and who
has written about this issue and who made a great deal influence on me
made a great deal influence on me
made a great deal influence on me just that’s that’s why I’m talking about
just that’s that’s why I’m talking about
just that’s that’s why I’m talking about it I’m gonna talk about some of his
it I’m gonna talk about some of his
it I’m gonna talk about some of his ideas he lived in he was born in Vienna
ideas he lived in he was born in Vienna
ideas he lived in he was born in Vienna in 1902 he lived in Austria until the
in 1902 he lived in Austria until the
in 1902 he lived in Austria until the 1930s when he had to leave when the
1930s when he had to leave when the
1930s when he had to leave when the Nazis came in he was Jewish and then he
Nazis came in he was Jewish and then he
Nazis came in he was Jewish and then he ended up living the rest of his life in
ended up living the rest of his life in
ended up living the rest of his life in Great Britain he was knighted actually
Great Britain he was knighted actually
Great Britain he was knighted actually he was Sir Karl Popper um and he wrote
he was Sir Karl Popper um and he wrote
he was Sir Karl Popper um and he wrote it he wrote a book or conjectures and
it he wrote a book or conjectures and
it he wrote a book or conjectures and refutations which I’ve got to talk about
refutations which I’ve got to talk about
refutations which I’ve got to talk about an essay from that book and any and he
an essay from that book and any and he
an essay from that book and any and he talks about science he’s interested in
talks about science he’s interested in
talks about science he’s interested in the question of what science is and what
the question of what science is and what
the question of what science is and what and what makes a theory of scientific
and what makes a theory of scientific
and what makes a theory of scientific theory and the first thing I want to say
theory and the first thing I want to say
theory and the first thing I want to say and this is this doesn’t even come in at
and this is this doesn’t even come in at
and this is this doesn’t even come in at popper early he says it too is science
popper early he says it too is science
popper early he says it too is science doesn’t ever prove anything this is a
doesn’t ever prove anything this is a
doesn’t ever prove anything this is a really important fact students sometimes
really important fact students sometimes
really important fact students sometimes will come in and say we know science has
will come in and say we know science has
will come in and say we know science has proven that the earth is round or
proven that the earth is round or
proven that the earth is round or science has proven that that the law of
science has proven that that the law of
science has proven that that the law of gravity is true or something like that
gravity is true or something like that
gravity is true or something like that science doesn’t ever prove anything and
science doesn’t ever prove anything and
science doesn’t ever prove anything and this is not just a sort of a big thing
this is not just a sort of a big thing
this is not just a sort of a big thing to say this is in principle true about
to say this is in principle true about
to say this is in principle true about scientific claims scientific claims have
scientific claims scientific claims have
scientific claims scientific claims have the form everything has some particular
the form everything has some particular
the form everything has some particular characteristic for instance William
characteristic for instance William
characteristic for instance William Harvey in the 17th century 16th century
Harvey in the 17th century 16th century
Harvey in the 17th century 16th century figuring out that that blood circulates
figuring out that that blood circulates
figuring out that that blood circulates in human beings um now when he says
in human beings um now when he says
in human beings um now when he says blood circulates in human beings he
blood circulates in human beings he
blood circulates in human beings he doesn’t just mean that the particular
doesn’t just mean that the particular
doesn’t just mean that the particular human beings he looked at had blood
human beings he looked at had blood
human beings he looked at had blood circulating in them he means all human
circulating in them he means all human
circulating in them he means all human beings have blood circulating them this
beings have blood circulating them this
beings have blood circulating them this is very important it wouldn’t be very
is very important it wouldn’t be very
is very important it wouldn’t be very interesting claim it was just about the
interesting claim it was just about the
interesting claim it was just about the ones he looked at because any doctor
ones he looked at because any doctor
ones he looked at because any doctor when the patient walks into the room has
when the patient walks into the room has
when the patient walks into the room has to be able to never having checked the
to be able to never having checked the
to be able to never having checked the patient before has to be able to know
patient before has to be able to know
patient before has to be able to know that this that this human being has a
that this that this human being has a
that this that this human being has a circulatory system so when you make a
circulatory system so when you make a
circulatory system so when you make a scientific claim like all human beings
scientific claim like all human beings
scientific claim like all human beings have circulatory systems you are
have circulatory systems you are
have circulatory systems you are inevitably making a claim that goes
inevitably making a claim that goes
inevitably making a claim that goes beyond the particular cases you’ve
beyond the particular cases you’ve
beyond the particular cases you’ve looked at right but if you’re going
looked at right but if you’re going
looked at right but if you’re going beyond the particular cases you’ve
beyond the particular cases you’ve
beyond the particular cases you’ve looked at then you can’t really be sure
looked at then you can’t really be sure
looked at then you can’t really be sure that the claim is right you might assert
that the claim is right you might assert
that the claim is right you might assert that a certain thing is true of all
that a certain thing is true of all
that a certain thing is true of all cases but unless the number of cases is
cases but unless the number of cases is
cases but unless the number of cases is really small I’m an example I was
really small I’m an example I was
really small I’m an example I was thinking it was all members of the US
thinking it was all members of the US
thinking it was all members of the US Supreme Court have Ivy League
Supreme Court have Ivy League
Supreme Court have Ivy League so they’re only eight of them you could
so they’re only eight of them you could
so they’re only eight of them you could check this by licking all eight of them
check this by licking all eight of them
check this by licking all eight of them but but with any larger with any
but but with any larger with any
but but with any larger with any reasonably large number you never can
reasonably large number you never can
reasonably large number you never can check every one right you can never be
check every one right you can never be
check every one right you can never be certain that every single human being
certain that every single human being
certain that every single human being has a circulatory system absolutely
has a circulatory system absolutely
has a circulatory system absolutely certain of it
certain of it
certain of it you can never be certain think of think
you can never be certain think of think
you can never be certain think of think of Newton’s law of gravity which says
of Newton’s law of gravity which says
of Newton’s law of gravity which says the two opt any two objects in the
the two opt any two objects in the
the two opt any two objects in the universe attract each other with a force
universe attract each other with a force
universe attract each other with a force that’s you know directly proportional to
that’s you know directly proportional to
that’s you know directly proportional to the product of their masses an
the product of their masses an
the product of their masses an indirectly proportional to the square of
indirectly proportional to the square of
indirectly proportional to the square of the distance between them this is a
the distance between them this is a
the distance between them this is a claim but every two objects in the
claim but every two objects in the
claim but every two objects in the entire universe
entire universe
entire universe how many did a Newton look at right some
how many did a Newton look at right some
how many did a Newton look at right some around here at a particular moment in
around here at a particular moment in
around here at a particular moment in time but we assume that this is true for
time but we assume that this is true for
time but we assume that this is true for the entire universe for all of the time
the entire universe for all of the time
the entire universe for all of the time we explained the Big Bang in terms of
we explained the Big Bang in terms of
we explained the Big Bang in terms of the in terms of this this law we don’t
the in terms of this this law we don’t
the in terms of this this law we don’t have any kind of absolute proof of it we
have any kind of absolute proof of it we
have any kind of absolute proof of it we simply we simply think that it’s true
simply we simply think that it’s true
simply we simply think that it’s true based on it based on actually our faith
based on it based on actually our faith
based on it based on actually our faith in something like well it’s true around
in something like well it’s true around
in something like well it’s true around here and when things are true around
here and when things are true around
here and when things are true around here they’re probably true and the rest
here they’re probably true and the rest
here they’re probably true and the rest of the universe too but the question of
of the universe too but the question of
of the universe too but the question of how we know that is is a hard one to
how we know that is is a hard one to
how we know that is is a hard one to answer so science doesn’t prove anything
answer so science doesn’t prove anything
answer so science doesn’t prove anything but I want to say something else about
but I want to say something else about
but I want to say something else about it which is that if you’ve got it if
it which is that if you’ve got it if
it which is that if you’ve got it if you’ve got a theory about the world in
you’ve got a theory about the world in
you’ve got a theory about the world in order to prove it like like this fact
order to prove it like like this fact
order to prove it like like this fact about about gravity or about about human
about about gravity or about about human
about about gravity or about about human beings having circulatory systems you
beings having circulatory systems you
beings having circulatory systems you have to look at all those different
have to look at all those different
have to look at all those different cases basically infinitely many cases in
cases basically infinitely many cases in
cases basically infinitely many cases in order to prove the theory but to
order to prove the theory but to
order to prove the theory but to disprove a theory it’s very easy right
disprove a theory it’s very easy right
disprove a theory it’s very easy right as soon as you have one case that this
as soon as you have one case that this
as soon as you have one case that this that goes against the theory then you
that goes against the theory then you
that goes against the theory then you know the theory is false so if you want
know the theory is false so if you want
know the theory is false so if you want to say something like all presidents of
to say something like all presidents of
to say something like all presidents of the United States have been born in the
the United States have been born in the
the United States have been born in the continent the continent of North America
continent the continent of North America
continent the continent of North America you could look at lots of lots of cases
you could look at lots of lots of cases
you could look at lots of lots of cases you look at the first one you could look
you look at the first one you could look
you look at the first one you could look at the second where you get a third one
at the second where you get a third one
at the second where you get a third one but only by the time you got to the what
but only by the time you got to the what
but only by the time you got to the what was he the 44th one would you discover
was he the 44th one would you discover
was he the 44th one would you discover actually did the theory is false it’s
actually did the theory is false it’s
actually did the theory is false it’s false because it was the single case the
false because it was the single case the
false because it was the single case the single character example of Obama who
single character example of Obama who
single character example of Obama who was not born in Kenya but who was born
was not born in Kenya but who was born
was not born in Kenya but who was born in Hawaii
in Hawaii
in Hawaii so it takes it takes one case to
so it takes it takes one case to
so it takes it takes one case to disprove a generalization
disprove a generalization
disprove a generalization whereas proving it is very hard that’s
whereas proving it is very hard that’s
whereas proving it is very hard that’s an important kind of logical fact it’s
an important kind of logical fact it’s
an important kind of logical fact it’s in the background of what popper wants
in the background of what popper wants
in the background of what popper wants to say but popper asks the question what
to say but popper asks the question what
to say but popper asks the question what makes a theory of scientific theory and
makes a theory of scientific theory and
makes a theory of scientific theory and the first thing he points out is that to
the first thing he points out is that to
the first thing he points out is that to call a theory a scientific theory is not
call a theory a scientific theory is not
call a theory a scientific theory is not the same as calling it true there are
the same as calling it true there are
the same as calling it true there are plenty of scientific theories that are
plenty of scientific theories that are
plenty of scientific theories that are false the most famous one is Newton’s
false the most famous one is Newton’s
false the most famous one is Newton’s physics which was discovered in the 20th
physics which was discovered in the 20th
physics which was discovered in the 20th century after the nine Stein’s theories
century after the nine Stein’s theories
century after the nine Stein’s theories that it’s not actually true I don’t know
that it’s not actually true I don’t know
that it’s not actually true I don’t know if those of you who are like in first
if those of you who are like in first
if those of you who are like in first year physics say I’m sorry for the
year physics say I’m sorry for the
year physics say I’m sorry for the spoiler but like at the end after they
spoiler but like at the end after they
spoiler but like at the end after they teach you all this stuff they say oh by
teach you all this stuff they say oh by
teach you all this stuff they say oh by the way that’s not right I mean
the way that’s not right I mean
the way that’s not right I mean literally that’s what goes on so so a
literally that’s what goes on so so a
literally that’s what goes on so so a scientific theory can be false and
scientific theory can be false and
scientific theory can be false and furthermore a non-scientific an
furthermore a non-scientific an
furthermore a non-scientific an unscientific a pseudo scientific theory
unscientific a pseudo scientific theory
unscientific a pseudo scientific theory can make all sorts of true predictions I
can make all sorts of true predictions I
can make all sorts of true predictions I can take the example of astrology
can take the example of astrology
can take the example of astrology astrology is not a scientific theory
astrology is not a scientific theory
astrology is not a scientific theory it’s not because the things it says
it’s not because the things it says
it’s not because the things it says don’t turn out to be true it’s sort of
don’t turn out to be true it’s sort of
don’t turn out to be true it’s sort of because the things it says turn out to
because the things it says turn out to
because the things it says turn out to be true too easily so if I once was
be true too easily so if I once was
be true too easily so if I once was checking what’s mine what’s my horoscope
checking what’s mine what’s my horoscope
checking what’s mine what’s my horoscope and it says something like you will
and it says something like you will
and it says something like you will receive news from afar and that you know
receive news from afar and that you know
receive news from afar and that you know like I went to the office that day I
like I went to the office that day I
like I went to the office that day I like to open up my email right and I got
like to open up my email right and I got
like to open up my email right and I got you know my friend in Portland Oregon
you know my friend in Portland Oregon
you know my friend in Portland Oregon sent me something and I’m with them on
sent me something and I’m with them on
sent me something and I’m with them on some listserv that gets I get
some listserv that gets I get
some listserv that gets I get information from Europe about
information from Europe about
information from Europe about conferences and so so it turned out to
conferences and so so it turned out to
conferences and so so it turned out to be true
be true
be true all right so true theories that make
all right so true theories that make
all right so true theories that make true predictions cannot become you
true predictions cannot become you
true predictions cannot become you non-scientific that’s an important point
non-scientific that’s an important point
non-scientific that’s an important point as well um
as well um
as well um popper talks about about two different
popper talks about about two different
popper talks about about two different theories that were that were very much
theories that were that were very much
theories that were that were very much in the air in the 1920s and in Vienna
in the air in the 1920s and in Vienna
in the air in the 1920s and in Vienna where he was living
where he was living
where he was living and one was Marx’s ‘m and he says he
and one was Marx’s ‘m and he says he
and one was Marx’s ‘m and he says he says he was struck his friends who were
says he was struck his friends who were
says he was struck his friends who were Marxists were able to explain everything
Marxists were able to explain everything
Marxists were able to explain everything that happened and it was a period of a
that happened and it was a period of a
that happened and it was a period of a lot of political ferment in Austria and
lot of political ferment in Austria and
lot of political ferment in Austria and Germany in other places in the earth
Germany in other places in the earth
Germany in other places in the earth everything that happened politically
everything that happened politically
everything that happened politically they found they found ways to explain it
they found they found ways to explain it
they found they found ways to explain it they could explain it in terms of their
they could explain it in terms of their
they could explain it in terms of their their Marxist theory of the world it was
their Marxist theory of the world it was
their Marxist theory of the world it was it was fabulous how easily they could
it was fabulous how easily they could
it was fabulous how easily they could explain everything he said a Marxist
explain everything he said a Marxist
explain everything he said a Marxist could not open the newspaper in the
could not open the newspaper in the
could not open the newspaper in the morning without finding confirmations of
morning without finding confirmations of
morning without finding confirmations of his theory on every
his theory on every
his theory on every aged both in terms of what it was what
aged both in terms of what it was what
aged both in terms of what it was what was written in the newspaper also what
was written in the newspaper also what
was written in the newspaper also what was not written there’s paper because
was not written there’s paper because
was not written there’s paper because because of the class interest of a
because of the class interest of a
because of the class interest of a newspaper editors um and and then popper
newspaper editors um and and then popper
newspaper editors um and and then popper said what they thought this was a great
said what they thought this was a great
said what they thought this was a great strength of their theory but in fact it
strength of their theory but in fact it
strength of their theory but in fact it was a weakness it’s a really actually
was a weakness it’s a really actually
was a weakness it’s a really actually interesting remark um they’re the
interesting remark um they’re the
interesting remark um they’re the ability to explain everything might be a
ability to explain everything might be a
ability to explain everything might be a weakness of a theory he compares this to
weakness of a theory he compares this to
weakness of a theory he compares this to Einstein’s theory which had been
Einstein’s theory which had been
Einstein’s theory which had been recently developed and which is still
recently developed and which is still
recently developed and which is still very much in debate and discussion and
very much in debate and discussion and
very much in debate and discussion and and he talks about a famous experiment
and he talks about a famous experiment
and he talks about a famous experiment I’ll just describe it very quickly um
I’ll just describe it very quickly um
I’ll just describe it very quickly um this guy named Arthur Eddington in 1919
this guy named Arthur Eddington in 1919
this guy named Arthur Eddington in 1919 it was a consequence of Einstein’s
it was a consequence of Einstein’s
it was a consequence of Einstein’s theory that that light traveling from
theory that that light traveling from
theory that that light traveling from from a star or something that passes by
from a star or something that passes by
from a star or something that passes by a very massive object like the Sun would
a very massive object like the Sun would
a very massive object like the Sun would Bend and and actually Newton’s theory
Bend and and actually Newton’s theory
Bend and and actually Newton’s theory there was also a little bending but
there was also a little bending but
there was also a little bending but there’s a lot of bending in the
there’s a lot of bending in the
there’s a lot of bending in the Newtonian anything Einstein he in theory
Newtonian anything Einstein he in theory
Newtonian anything Einstein he in theory so this guy the trouble is you can’t see
so this guy the trouble is you can’t see
so this guy the trouble is you can’t see stars and you’re the Sun for kind of
stars and you’re the Sun for kind of
stars and you’re the Sun for kind of obvious reason it’s kind of the same
obvious reason it’s kind of the same
obvious reason it’s kind of the same reason I can’t see anything right now
reason I can’t see anything right now
reason I can’t see anything right now and and but but if the Sun isn’t
and and but but if the Sun isn’t
and and but but if the Sun isn’t eclipsed then you’d be able to do it so
eclipsed then you’d be able to do it so
eclipsed then you’d be able to do it so it this guy Eddington in 1919 went and
it this guy Eddington in 1919 went and
it this guy Eddington in 1919 went and did have an expedition to I think West
did have an expedition to I think West
did have an expedition to I think West Africa and observed an eclipse of the
Africa and observed an eclipse of the
Africa and observed an eclipse of the Sun and discovered that the bending of
Sun and discovered that the bending of
Sun and discovered that the bending of the star’s light was exactly the way
the star’s light was exactly the way
the star’s light was exactly the way that I’m Stan had predicted this was a
that I’m Stan had predicted this was a
that I’m Stan had predicted this was a enormous this is a big deal there was
enormous this is a big deal there was
enormous this is a big deal there was front-page news all over the world you
front-page news all over the world you
front-page news all over the world you know Einstein’s theory has been proven
know Einstein’s theory has been proven
know Einstein’s theory has been proven by this by this test now before I get to
by this by this test now before I get to
by this by this test now before I get to that so the point is that that actually
that so the point is that that actually
that so the point is that that actually Einstein’s theory wasn’t proven in terms
Einstein’s theory wasn’t proven in terms
Einstein’s theory wasn’t proven in terms of what we were just saying before but
of what we were just saying before but
of what we were just saying before but the the impossibility of science proving
the the impossibility of science proving
the the impossibility of science proving things it wasn’t proven there might’ve
things it wasn’t proven there might’ve
things it wasn’t proven there might’ve been other reasons whether light was
been other reasons whether light was
been other reasons whether light was bent Newton’s theory was disproven
bent Newton’s theory was disproven
bent Newton’s theory was disproven that’s what happened with that expert
that’s what happened with that expert
that’s what happened with that expert with that with that experiment but of
with that with that experiment but of
with that with that experiment but of course there’s also at that point some
course there’s also at that point some
course there’s also at that point some reason to start to think that Einstein’s
reason to start to think that Einstein’s
reason to start to think that Einstein’s theory might be a better one and the
theory might be a better one and the
theory might be a better one and the reason is that this prediction about the
reason is that this prediction about the
reason is that this prediction about the about the bending of the light was a
about the bending of the light was a
about the bending of the light was a risky prediction it was something that
risky prediction it was something that
risky prediction it was something that no one would have expected would happen
no one would have expected would happen
no one would have expected would happen and Einstein’s theory involves saying
and Einstein’s theory involves saying
and Einstein’s theory involves saying something that you’d expect would happen
something that you’d expect would happen
something that you’d expect would happen to non-bending with their not much
to non-bending with their not much
to non-bending with their not much bending of the light that’s not gonna
bending of the light that’s not gonna
bending of the light that’s not gonna happen
happen
happen um Einstein’s theory could have failed
um Einstein’s theory could have failed
um Einstein’s theory could have failed if the experiment had ended up
if the experiment had ended up
if the experiment had ended up differently if the observations were
differently if the observations were
differently if the observations were different it would have failed um and
different it would have failed um and
different it would have failed um and and popper decided that that this is
and popper decided that that this is
and popper decided that that this is what’s important in terms of making a
what’s important in terms of making a
what’s important in terms of making a theory scientific um it’s easy to find
theory scientific um it’s easy to find
theory scientific um it’s easy to find confirmations for your theory if you
confirmations for your theory if you
confirmations for your theory if you look for if you like the way astrology
look for if you like the way astrology
look for if you like the way astrology does if you look for him it’s easy to
does if you look for him it’s easy to
does if you look for him it’s easy to find them you can always make the theory
find them you can always make the theory
find them you can always make the theory as vague as possible and kind of
as vague as possible and kind of
as vague as possible and kind of interpret whatever happens to make the
interpret whatever happens to make the
interpret whatever happens to make the to make the theory work um
to make the theory work um
to make the theory work um confirmations are only important if
confirmations are only important if
confirmations are only important if you’ve made a risky prediction and then
you’ve made a risky prediction and then
you’ve made a risky prediction and then it turned out that turned out to work
it turned out that turned out to work
it turned out that turned out to work every good theory forbid something
every good theory forbid something
every good theory forbid something happened says as in the Einsteinian case
happened says as in the Einsteinian case
happened says as in the Einsteinian case that this this small bending of the
that this this small bending of the
that this this small bending of the light of the light won’t occur a theory
light of the light won’t occur a theory
light of the light won’t occur a theory which is not refutable by any
which is not refutable by any
which is not refutable by any conceivable event is non-scientific and
conceivable event is non-scientific and
conceivable event is non-scientific and that’s really what was the case with the
that’s really what was the case with the
that’s really what was the case with the Marxist right whatever happened they
Marxist right whatever happened they
Marxist right whatever happened they were going to be able to explain it a
were going to be able to explain it a
were going to be able to explain it a genuine test of a theory is an attempt
genuine test of a theory is an attempt
genuine test of a theory is an attempt to falsify it
to falsify it
to falsify it um what’s really what what you want to
um what’s really what what you want to
um what’s really what what you want to do with your theory and I’m not just
do with your theory and I’m not just
do with your theory and I’m not just talking about science I’m talking about
talking about science I’m talking about
talking about science I’m talking about you and me and just the world when
you and me and just the world when
you and me and just the world when you’ve got a view about the world you
you’ve got a view about the world you
you’ve got a view about the world you should be trying to falsify it trying to
should be trying to falsify it trying to
should be trying to falsify it trying to refute it um because if you can refute
refute it um because if you can refute
refute it um because if you can refute it then you’ve learned something you
it then you’ve learned something you
it then you’ve learned something you learn that it was wrong and you can
learn that it was wrong and you can
learn that it was wrong and you can replace it by a better theory if all
replace it by a better theory if all
replace it by a better theory if all you’re trying to do is to confirm it
you’re trying to do is to confirm it
you’re trying to do is to confirm it it’s always gonna work and and and
it’s always gonna work and and and
it’s always gonna work and and and you’re not gonna get anywhere with it
you’re not gonna get anywhere with it
you’re not gonna get anywhere with it this is the criterion of the scientific
this is the criterion of the scientific
this is the criterion of the scientific status of a theory is its falsifiability
status of a theory is its falsifiability
status of a theory is its falsifiability there has to be something that you can
there has to be something that you can
there has to be something that you can specify ahead of time that would cause
specify ahead of time that would cause
specify ahead of time that would cause you to say I give up this theory you
you to say I give up this theory you
you to say I give up this theory you have to be willing to give up the theory
have to be willing to give up the theory
have to be willing to give up the theory and look for ways to refute it it
and look for ways to refute it it
and look for ways to refute it it distinguishes between recalls of
distinguishes between recalls of
distinguishes between recalls of dogmatic attitude and a critical
dogmatic attitude and a critical
dogmatic attitude and a critical attitude dogmatic attitude is familiar
attitude dogmatic attitude is familiar
attitude dogmatic attitude is familiar we all have it we love our theories we
we all have it we love our theories we
we all have it we love our theories we want them to be true we look for
want them to be true we look for
want them to be true we look for confirmations of them we whenever
confirmations of them we whenever
confirmations of them we whenever something that goes a little wrong with
something that goes a little wrong with
something that goes a little wrong with them we try to reinterpret things in
them we try to reinterpret things in
them we try to reinterpret things in order to make it know actually that
order to make it know actually that
order to make it know actually that didn’t refute my theory I really want to
didn’t refute my theory I really want to
didn’t refute my theory I really want to my theory the better attitude is the
my theory the better attitude is the
my theory the better attitude is the critical one that recognizes that
critical one that recognizes that
critical one that recognizes that theories are often wrong probably wrong
theories are often wrong probably wrong
theories are often wrong probably wrong and looks for reputations of them looks
and looks for reputations of them looks
and looks for reputations of them looks for their weakest point and tries to
for their weakest point and tries to
for their weakest point and tries to test them and if you if you’ve looked
test them and if you if you’ve looked
test them and if you if you’ve looked for their weakest for the weakest point
for their weakest for the weakest point
for their weakest for the weakest point of your theory and tried to test it and
of your theory and tried to test it and
of your theory and tried to test it and it succeeded it survived the test then
it succeeded it survived the test then
it succeeded it survived the test then you’ve got a reason to say to yourself
you’ve got a reason to say to yourself
you’ve got a reason to say to yourself not that my theory has been proven but
not that my theory has been proven but
not that my theory has been proven but that I tried as hard as I could to
that I tried as hard as I could to
that I tried as hard as I could to refute it and I couldn’t and for the
refute it and I couldn’t and for the
refute it and I couldn’t and for the time being I’m gonna tentatively hold it
time being I’m gonna tentatively hold it
time being I’m gonna tentatively hold it although I know I’m not positive and
although I know I’m not positive and
although I know I’m not positive and can’t be positive that it’s true but now
can’t be positive that it’s true but now
can’t be positive that it’s true but now I want to talk about Donald Trump and
I want to talk about Donald Trump and
I want to talk about Donald Trump and and but I’m not gonna say what I think
and but I’m not gonna say what I think
and but I’m not gonna say what I think you think I’m gonna say um I’m not gonna
you think I’m gonna say um I’m not gonna
you think I’m gonna say um I’m not gonna say that his that he’s an example of a
say that his that he’s an example of a
say that his that he’s an example of a dogmatic attitude that he doesn’t take
dogmatic attitude that he doesn’t take
dogmatic attitude that he doesn’t take he and his supporters don’t take a kind
he and his supporters don’t take a kind
he and his supporters don’t take a kind of critical attitude towards their ideas
of critical attitude towards their ideas
of critical attitude towards their ideas that they’re always looking to confirm
that they’re always looking to confirm
that they’re always looking to confirm their theories and so forth although I
their theories and so forth although I
their theories and so forth although I believe all those things I just said
believe all those things I just said
believe all those things I just said about him and his supporters what I want
about him and his supporters what I want
about him and his supporters what I want to talk about is us and by us I don’t
to talk about is us and by us I don’t
to talk about is us and by us I don’t know I can’t even see who’s in the room
know I can’t even see who’s in the room
know I can’t even see who’s in the room right now but and but I suspect that
right now but and but I suspect that
right now but and but I suspect that most of the people in this room have the
most of the people in this room have the
most of the people in this room have the same view about Trump that I do which is
same view about Trump that I do which is
same view about Trump that I do which is that he’s a bad guy and a dangerous guy
that he’s a bad guy and a dangerous guy
that he’s a bad guy and a dangerous guy and a bad president and we’re pretty
and a bad president and we’re pretty
and a bad president and we’re pretty unhappy about him being president and
unhappy about him being president and
unhappy about him being president and we’re concerned about the bad things
we’re concerned about the bad things
we’re concerned about the bad things he’s doing I suspect most people this
he’s doing I suspect most people this
he’s doing I suspect most people this room feel that way um and and actually
room feel that way um and and actually
room feel that way um and and actually what I is what I have to say is gonna
what I is what I have to say is gonna
what I is what I have to say is gonna work in both direct whichever way you
work in both direct whichever way you
work in both direct whichever way you for you but I’m just talking about that
for you but I’m just talking about that
for you but I’m just talking about that myself there’s this phenomenon that’s
myself there’s this phenomenon that’s
myself there’s this phenomenon that’s that’s been talking about it’s sort of
that’s been talking about it’s sort of
that’s been talking about it’s sort of the bubble I mean it’s it is the case
the bubble I mean it’s it is the case
the bubble I mean it’s it is the case that I don’t think I know anyone
that I don’t think I know anyone
that I don’t think I know anyone certainly not no one well who I’m sure
certainly not no one well who I’m sure
certainly not no one well who I’m sure voted for Trump almost everyone I know
voted for Trump almost everyone I know
voted for Trump almost everyone I know you know didn’t and has the same ideas
you know didn’t and has the same ideas
you know didn’t and has the same ideas about Trump that I do um and in the
about Trump that I do um and in the
about Trump that I do um and in the conversations I have it’s later and in
conversations I have it’s later and in
conversations I have it’s later and in the dinner parties I go to and the
the dinner parties I go to and the
the dinner parties I go to and the conversations I had with my friends and
conversations I had with my friends and
conversations I had with my friends and in the philosophy department and even
in the philosophy department and even
in the philosophy department and even with most of my students we all agree
with most of my students we all agree
with most of my students we all agree and in my facebook page all the time I’m
and in my facebook page all the time I’m
and in my facebook page all the time I’m it’s filled with confirmations of my
it’s filled with confirmations of my
it’s filled with confirmations of my view about Trump that’s what we give to
view about Trump that’s what we give to
view about Trump that’s what we give to each other all the time we cannot open
each other all the time we cannot open
each other all the time we cannot open the newspaper every morning without
the newspaper every morning without
the newspaper every morning without finding confirmation
finding confirmation
finding confirmation the barbule about Trump about the
the barbule about Trump about the
the barbule about Trump about the meaning of his election and we might
meaning of his election and we might
meaning of his election and we might think that’s the strength of our view
think that’s the strength of our view
think that’s the strength of our view but I actually think it’s a weakness I
but I actually think it’s a weakness I
but I actually think it’s a weakness I think what we ought to be doing and I
think what we ought to be doing and I
think what we ought to be doing and I sort of tried this as an experiment in
sort of tried this as an experiment in
sort of tried this as an experiment in the in the days after the election or
the in the days after the election or
the in the days after the election or weeks after the election after got
weeks after the election after got
weeks after the election after got myself off the floor but um is to think
myself off the floor but um is to think
myself off the floor but um is to think what would falsify our views about Trump
what would falsify our views about Trump
what would falsify our views about Trump what would falsify the fear that say I
what would falsify the fear that say I
what would falsify the fear that say I felt about his election under what
felt about his election under what
felt about his election under what conditions would I decide I was wrong
conditions would I decide I was wrong
conditions would I decide I was wrong and if you supported Trump that under
and if you supported Trump that under
and if you supported Trump that under what conditions would you decide that
what conditions would you decide that
what conditions would you decide that you were wrong that what we have to say
you were wrong that what we have to say
you were wrong that what we have to say about Trump is right for instance I
about Trump is right for instance I
about Trump is right for instance I think it’s a really interesting exercise
think it’s a really interesting exercise
think it’s a really interesting exercise I posed it for people on my Facebook
I posed it for people on my Facebook
I posed it for people on my Facebook page and also in some listservs I’m on
page and also in some listservs I’m on
page and also in some listservs I’m on people found it incredibly difficult to
people found it incredibly difficult to
people found it incredibly difficult to do this to specify what would cause them
do this to specify what would cause them
do this to specify what would cause them at least one person said nothing could
at least one person said nothing could
at least one person said nothing could possibly happen that would cause me to
possibly happen that would cause me to
possibly happen that would cause me to change my mind about Trump it’s like and
change my mind about Trump it’s like and
change my mind about Trump it’s like and it’s like that’s bad that nothing could
it’s like that’s bad that nothing could
it’s like that’s bad that nothing could possibly happen you’ve got to admit the
possibly happen you’ve got to admit the
possibly happen you’ve got to admit the possibility that you’re wrong so I
possibility that you’re wrong so I
possibility that you’re wrong so I actually invite you to think about the
actually invite you to think about the
actually invite you to think about the question action if you’d like to email
question action if you’d like to email
question action if you’d like to email me Vogel at Denison uh ddu because I’m
me Vogel at Denison uh ddu because I’m
me Vogel at Denison uh ddu because I’m trying to keep a list of this I’m quite
trying to keep a list of this I’m quite
trying to keep a list of this I’m quite serious with this what would lead you to
serious with this what would lead you to
serious with this what would lead you to change your views about Trump no matter
change your views about Trump no matter
change your views about Trump no matter what those views are at the moment I
what those views are at the moment I
what those views are at the moment I think it’s a really important exercise
think it’s a really important exercise
think it’s a really important exercise to think about um these are some answers
to think about um these are some answers
to think about um these are some answers I got there they’re good answers I have
I got there they’re good answers I have
I got there they’re good answers I have my own list I think some of those are on
my own list I think some of those are on
my own list I think some of those are on my list but but I want to point out one
my list but but I want to point out one
my list but but I want to point out one more thing just before I end about that
more thing just before I end about that
more thing just before I end about that um our views and again I’m talking to
um our views and again I’m talking to
um our views and again I’m talking to those of us who think he’s a bad guy
those of us who think he’s a bad guy
those of us who think he’s a bad guy have already been falsified alright we
have already been falsified alright we
have already been falsified alright we thought he was impossible we thought he
thought he was impossible we thought he
thought he was impossible we thought he was never get the Republican nomination
was never get the Republican nomination
was never get the Republican nomination we thought he would lose the election
we thought he would lose the election
we thought he would lose the election our views have been falsified have we
our views have been falsified have we
our views have been falsified have we modified them after the election I don’t
modified them after the election I don’t
modified them after the election I don’t know um here are some other things
know um here are some other things
know um here are some other things that’s and it’s missing um some of the
that’s and it’s missing um some of the
that’s and it’s missing um some of the some of the suggestions I got were
some of the suggestions I got were
some of the suggestions I got were things like if the Affordable Care Act
things like if the Affordable Care Act
things like if the Affordable Care Act is not repealed well it hasn’t been
is not repealed well it hasn’t been
is not repealed well it hasn’t been repeal if Social Security and Medicare
repeal if Social Security and Medicare
repeal if Social Security and Medicare are
are
are are not gutted well he’s proposed a
are not gutted well he’s proposed a
are not gutted well he’s proposed a budget that says that there should be no
budget that says that there should be no
budget that says that there should be no changes in them if Hillary if Hillary
changes in them if Hillary if Hillary
changes in them if Hillary if Hillary Clinton is not a foot in jail
Clinton is not a foot in jail
Clinton is not a foot in jail locked up that’s not happening so so
locked up that’s not happening so so
locked up that’s not happening so so some of our expectations about about
some of our expectations about about
some of our expectations about about Trump have already been falsified and I
Trump have already been falsified and I
Trump have already been falsified and I think it’s worth noticing that and
think it’s worth noticing that and
think it’s worth noticing that and paying attention to it um so what’s
paying attention to it um so what’s
paying attention to it um so what’s critical thinking it’s knowing that you
critical thinking it’s knowing that you
critical thinking it’s knowing that you might be wrong and remembering that all
might be wrong and remembering that all
might be wrong and remembering that all the time
the time
the time it’s always considering the possibility
it’s always considering the possibility
it’s always considering the possibility you’re wrong it’s looking for refutation
you’re wrong it’s looking for refutation
you’re wrong it’s looking for refutation of your views and not just looking for
of your views and not just looking for
of your views and not just looking for confirmations of them and being prepared
confirmations of them and being prepared
confirmations of them and being prepared to change your views if things happen to
to change your views if things happen to
to change your views if things happen to refute them it’s holding on to your
refute them it’s holding on to your
refute them it’s holding on to your unrefuted which just means not yet
unrefuted which just means not yet
unrefuted which just means not yet refuted views um
refuted views um
refuted views um tentatively and fellow ballistically and
tentatively and fellow ballistically and
tentatively and fellow ballistically and and and therefore it’s it involves
and and therefore it’s it involves
and and therefore it’s it involves always not being sure and living with
always not being sure and living with
always not being sure and living with the uncertainty of not being sure and
the uncertainty of not being sure and
the uncertainty of not being sure and and wrecking and recognizing that you
and wrecking and recognizing that you
and wrecking and recognizing that you don’t know the truth for sure and no one
don’t know the truth for sure and no one
don’t know the truth for sure and no one else does either that’s what I have to
else does either that’s what I have to
else does either that’s what I have to say thank you
say thank you
say thank you [Applause]
”
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